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Bay Area Council Endorses Comprehensive Campaign Finance Reform Supports Stop Special Interest Money Now Initiative

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 25, 2012

I just heard from the Stop Special Interest Money Now Campaign on some big news (Full Disclosure: Custom Campaigns is doing consulting work on the campaign). Apparently the campaign received the endorsement from the Bay Area Council.

This is a sign of some serious momentum from the campaign and it will be exciting to see the campaign unfold over the next few months.

Here is the press release:

Let’s Start Taking Back California

Bay Area Council Endorses Comprehensive Campaign Finance Reform Supports Stop Special Interest Money Now Initiative

(SACRAMENTO, CA)—Today, the Stop Special Interest Money Now campaign welcomed the endorsement of the Bay Area Council, a reform minded public-policy advocacy organization representing businesses from the Bay Area. Read the rest of this entry »

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2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 74

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 25, 2012

(UPDATED 4:52 PM With Changes to the profile of Scott Peotter).

AD 74 Central Committee is the last of the race s that I will be handicapping for the June election. It has been a long and interesting process, and I hope that all of you readers have enjoyed these.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Emily Sanford– She is currently Scott Baugh’s alternate on the Central Committee and has been a volunteer with the OCGOP. I have heard people say nothing but nice things about her.

Christina L. Shea– She is best known for being one of the Republican members of the always fun Irvine City Council. In 2010 she was unable to run for re-election due to term limits.

Allan Bartlett– The leader of the OC Ron Paul fan club. He is a Libertarian leaning Republican that was recently involved in the blocked endorsement of John Campbell. *Incumbent.

John Draper– I don’t know a lot about him, although he is currently on the Central Committee and appears to be part of the tea party wing of the committee. *Incumbent.

Scott Baugh– Currently the Chairman of the Republican Party of Orange County also former Assembly Republican leader. He is usually way out in first place on election night. *Incumbent.

Greg Baker– I could find nothing on him.

Jon Aiken– Jon used to be on the Central Committee and has been a long time volunteer with the OC GOP since at least 2006.

Don Hansen– He is currently the Mayor of Huntington Beach and also rumored to be considering a run for the Orange County Board of Supervisors 2nd District.

Bill Dunlap– He ran for the Central Committee back in 2010 for the 70th district. In fact, he came quite close to winning the seat being just 250 votes short of defeating Allan Bartlett for the 6th and final spot.

Rhonda Rohrabacher– The wife of Congressman Dana Rohrabacher and also a political strategist. She has a lot of knowledge of the OC GOP and how it works. She is not an incumbent, but she will have residual name ID from Dana Rohrabacher.

Thomas A. Fuentes Jr.– The son of popular Republican Party Chairman Tom Fuentes. He was recently appointed as an alternate on the Central Committee created by the very classy Matt Holder.

Scott Peotter– He is a conservative attorney and also is best known to those that run in the same circles as members of the Family Action PAC. Apparently I mixed him up with his brother. Scott is a developer, Mansoor aide, former Newport Beach Planning Commissioner, and long-time GOP activist.

Gary R. Morse– I found when searching that he is an organizer with the Newport Mesa Tea Party Patriots.

Vanessa Mathews– I could find nothing on her.

Daniel Marshall– An Attorney who I could also find no information on.

Jeff Matthews– He and Vanessa Matthews are likely to split the vote by having similar names despite the fact that the last names are spelled slightly different.

Richard “Dick” Palmer– He is a Community Volunteer who I was unable to find much information about through Google.

John Warner– He is also an incumbent on the Central Committee and in my opinion will battle it out with Allan Bartlett for the 6th slot.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Scott Baugh
2. Emily Sanford
3. Don Hansen
4. Rhonda Rohrabacher
5. Thomas A. “T.J.” Fuentes
6. Toss Up John Warner/Allan Bartlett

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 73

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 25, 2012

AD 73 is a bastion of conservatism, and it will be a safe Republican seat in both the June and November election for Assemblywoman Harkey.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Dave Duringer– He is a gun trust attorney who I believe is involved in the tea party (not 100% sure on that. He also ran for the Central Committee back in 2010 prior to redistricting when his district was the 71st.

Mary Young– She has been an activist with the Republican Party of Orange County for a very long time. She is also campaigning the hardest of anybody I have ever seen for a Central Committee seat. *Incumbent.

Mike Munzing– He was at one point running against John Campbell for Congress and then wisely decided to run for Aliso Viejo City Council. He is very good at marketing himself from what I have witnessed through his many activities. *Incumbent.

Alice Anderson– She is currently an incumbent in this district. I would encourage those involved in OCGOP politics to seek out a way to sign her nomination papers if you live in this district. *Incumbent.

Norm Dickinson– Many people who I have talked to have said that he is the foremost expert on the bylaws in the Republican Party of Orange County. I cannot see that I disagree from what I have witnessed. *Incumbent.

Steve Magdziak– He is one of the few that has set up a website for his Central Committee race http://www.stevemagdziak.com/ His website does not include much information about his background but if I had to guess I would think he was part of the Ron Paul crowd.

Chandra Chell– She is active in Republican politics through Atlas PAC among other things and she has also been involved in the CRA among other Republican volunteer organizations. *Incumbent.

Linda Barnes– From a bit of research I have learned that she is part of the leadership team with OC912 a conservative group which is tied to the tea party.

Greg Woodard– He recently friended me on Facebook. After having a conversation with him I found that he is involved in a lot of conservative groups including Atlas PAC and Family Action PAC. He was also appointed to a seat on the OC GOP Central Committee making him an incumbent as well. *Incumbent.

Nancy Padberg– She was previously on the Central Committee but was one of the members that was ousted in this past election. As an elected official on the South Orange County Community College District, her name ID will be high.

Tony Beall– He currently is an incumbent on both the Central Committee and on the Rancho Santa Margarita City Council. He also has been a conservative voice on the issues involving the Capistrano Unified School District. *Incumbent.

Kevin Richardson– According to the very little that I could find out about him he is one of the co-founders of SOC912 which I referenced above (OC912).

Nina R. Davar– I am seeing a trend here as when I did a bit of googling I found her name attached to SOC912 as well as other candidates with tea party ties.

John C. Drew– A writer for Examiner.com on Republican Party of Orange County Republican politics. He had a lot of information on his bio including the fact that he is an award-winning political scientist.

Susan A. Bock– I was unable to find any information on her.

Nesa Anderson– She is a Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman from what I believe is San Clemente. She also won the lottery to appear first on the ballot.

Evan P. Chafee– He will appear on the ballot as a Marketing Sales Representative. All I could find about him is that he is from San Juan Capistrano.

Mark Dobrilovic– He is an activist that I have heard about tat runs in the Tea Party circles. He also ran for Mission Viejo City Council in 2010.

Jon Steven Fleischman– He is a major player in Republican Party Politics and he runs te popular Flash Report website. I definitely see him winning one of the 6 available seats.

Roy Fussell– A Realtor who is running, I was unable to find much more information.

Paul Hebbard– He is listed on the ballot as a Certified Public Accountant and outside of that I know very little.

Michael Kogus– He is listed on the ballot as a Business Owner, but like some of the other challengers I was unable to find any information on him.

Erik Stolaski– He is a Tea Party Republican who I believe worked on the Nelson for Supervisor campaign if I recall correctly.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Alice Anderson
2. Tony Beall
3. Mary Young
4. Mike Munzing
5.  Greg Woodard Jon Steven Fleischman This was a mistake on my part when writing the post. My apologies to Greg Woodard who is a really nice guy and a very solid Republican.
6. Nancy Padberg

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 72

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 25, 2012

AD 72 not only has one of the most hotly contested races for Assembly but it also has one of the most hotly contested Central Committee races.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Janet Nguyen– She is currently the Orange County Supervisor from the 1st District and an incumbent on the Central Committee too. *Incumbent.

John W. Briscoe– John W. Briscoe is President of the Fountain Valley Republican Assembly and a CRA State Officer.  He is also a CPA on the Orange County Property Tax Appeals board and a past Chairman of the Fountain Valley Planning Commission.  (He is not Ocean View School District’s John F. Briscoe.)

Mark McCurdy– He is currently an elected member of the Fountain Valley Council and is serving as the Mayor Pro Tem. Also he is an incumbent on the Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Dennis R. Catron– I am not sure if it is the same person but according to a bit of research that I did a Dennis Catron used to be the Vice-Chairman of the OC GOP back in 1986.

Brian Hoops– According to some research, I couldn’t quite pinpoint it but their was a Brian Hoop linked to a Tea Party meet-up group.

Matthew Harper– An elected member of the Huntington Beach City Council nd current candidate for the 72nd Assembly District seat. *Incumbent.

Dean Grose– He s a former member of the Los Alamitos City Council who got into some hot water for his watermelon e-mail that he sent out. *Incumbent.

Kermit Marsh– He is a former member of the Westminster CIty Council who left because he chose to do so, not because of term limits or losing an election. *Incumbent.

Patrick Dooley– The second of the brothers Dooley to pull papers for this office. He currently has a profile up on the Campaign For Liberty website as well.

Michael Gates– I could find no information on him. He is listed as a Businessman/Attorney on the ballot.

Patricia Ross– Although I was unable to find any political information out about her, she is involved in charity work with local schools.

Diane A. Lenning– She is a perennial candidate for the office of California State Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Steve A. Nagel– Currently an elected member of the Fountain Valley City Council and the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Mary Tuong Van Pham– This is the wife of Assembly candidate Long Pham. She will definitely help boost the name ID for Long Pham.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Janet Nguyen
2. Kermit Marsh
3. Steve Nagel
4. Mark McCurdy
5. Matthew Harper
6. John W. Briscoe

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 69

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 24, 2012

AD 69 is a tough place to find Republicans, so it is always nice to see a contested race for the Central Committee here. This race did manage to garner less than 20 candidates though thus making it one of the tame ones.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Charles Hart– Former candidate for Santa Ana Mayor and current appointed member of the Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Thomas Anthony Gordon– Clearly we here at OC Political have to cheer for our fellow blogger Thomas Gordon who is running for re-election. *Incumbent.

Brett Elliott Franklin– He is a former member of the Santa Ana City Council and current elected member of the OC GOP Central Committee.

Timothy “Tim” Ryan Whitacre– Tim is a current elected member of the Central Committee and also the member who chose to challenge Scott Baugh for the Chairmanship this past year. *Incumbent.

Robert Morris Hammond– He is currently the only hope for Republicans for the Orange County Board of Education and is a nice guy from my interactions with him. *Incumbent. (Full Disclosure: He is a Custom Campaigns client.)

Cuong Sinh Cao– He is a very quiet individual who has been a solid vote on the Central Committee during his tenure. *Incumbent.

Gwen A. Dyrud– Gwen Dyrud was appointed to this seat at some point in the past year and can run as an incumbent on the ballot. *Incumbent.

Bryan Carter– A software engineer that was hard to find any information about.

Lupe Moreno– She is an Office Specialist who is best known for her work with the Minuteman Project and Jim Gilchrist.

Glen Stroud– I have met him once before and he is actually a nice guy. He is listed on the ballot as a Retired Recreation Supervisor.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Robert Morris Hammond
2. Brett Elliot Franklin
3. Thomas Anthony Gordon
4. Charles Hart
5. Cuong Sinh Cao
6. Timothy “Tim” Ryan Whitacre

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 68

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 24, 2012

AD 68 will be a blood bath in many different ways. Both candidates for the 3rd Supervisorial District are running for this. 8 of the candidates are elected officials in the district. Only 3 of the candidates running are incumbents which will allow for three challengers to get elected.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Mark William Bucher– The OC GOP is lucky to have this guy. He is not only one of the true conservatives who has done a lot for the Republican cause, but he is also the OC GOP Treasurer.

Ken L. Williams Jr.– He is currently an elected member of the Orange County Board of Education and a past member of the OC GOP Central Committee.

Noel Stone Parrish– I could be mixing her up with somebody else but it appears that she is a former resident of Los Angeles County who moved to Orange County.

Todd Spitzer– He is currently a candidate for Orange County Supervisor in the 3rd District and an elected member to the OC GOP Central Committee. *incumbent.

Marcia Gilchrist– She has been a solid voice in Republican politics for a long time including her service as an elected member of the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Deborah Pauly– She is currently a member of the Villa Park City Council and Vice Chair of the OC GOP. Also she is rumored to possibly be running for Supervisor against Todd Spitzer. *Incumbent.

Walter H. Myers III– He is someone who I consider to be a friend and he is also a very solid Republican as well. We are clearly rooting for our fellow blogger here at OC Political to win.

Lynn Schott– She is currently an elected member of the OC GOP Central Committee. It might be just me, but she comes across as angry all the time.

Nick Wilson– He is currently a Tea Party Republican who is running for a second time for this Central Committee seat after a tough loss in 2010.

Denis Bilodeau– He is currently an elected member of the Orange City Council and Orange County Water district. He was recently appointed to the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Ray Grangoff– Currently a member of Supervisor Pat Bates staff and also an elected member of the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Scott “Scotty” Voigts– A current elected member of the Lake Forest City Council and also a member of Assemblyman Don Wagner’s staff.

Joshua Robert Morales– I do not know much about Joshua Robert Morales other than the fact that he is running as a Retail Sales Associate.

Jeffrey Lalloway– He is an Irvine City Councilman and also heavily active in the Lincoln Club. He is one of the real good guys in the party.

Jon Dumitru– An Orange City Councilman and Custom Campaigns client running for Mayor against a Democrat. He is the winner of the lottery spot that will put him at the top of the ballot.

Steven S. Choi– He is a Councilmember in Irvine and also the recent runner up in the AD 68 race. He is currently running for Mayor in Irvine against Beth Krom.

James Brownfield– He is listed as a Business Owner on the ballot but outside of that it was not easy to come up with any information about him.

Fred Whitaker– He is currently a Councilmember in Orange and the most recently elected member of the Council in Orange.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Todd Spitzer
2. Mark William Bucher
3. Jon Dumitru
4. Marcia Gilchrist
5. Ray Grangoff
6. Deborah Pauly

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 65

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 23, 2012

AD 65 was also available to avoid a circus atmosphere of having over 20 candidates competing for the 6 seats.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Baron Night– He is currently an incumbent member of the central committee and will likely be the lone Buena Park resident on the committee.

Greg Sebourn– He ran for Fullerton City Council back in the 2010 election and fell just short of winning one of the two seats that was up. He is also a candidate for Fullerton City Council in the recall election.

Henry Charoen– Currently a La Palma City Councilman and potentially a future candidate for the 65th Assembly District as he has already formed a committee.

Steve Hwangbo– Also a La Palma City Councilman and although he is a Republican he is not quite as solid of a vote on the City Council as Henry Charoen.

Samuel “Sam” Han– He is currently a Republican staffer for Assemblyman Don Wagner in the new AD 68 district.

Jerry Jackson– He is currently a sitting member of the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Sou Moua– I was not able to find any information about this individual.

Pat Shuff– She currently sits on the OC GOP Central Committee in this district and is a former Fullerton RWF President. *Incumbent.

Alexandria Coronado– She used to be a member of the Orange County Board of Education before she was narrowly defeated last election by David Boyd.

David John Shawver– He is currently a member of the Stanton City Council and a previous opponent of John Moorlach for public office.

Shawn Nelson– Orange County Supervisor representing the 4th district and he has been a solid vote so far. He is also a current member of the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Shawn Nelson
2. Pat Shuff
3. Baron Night
4. Henry Charoen
5. Greg Sebourn
6. David John Shawver

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Republican Candidates Out Walking Tomorrow!

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 20, 2012

In a huge sign of campaign momentum Todd Spitzer candidate for 3rd District Supervisor and Robert Hammond candidate for County Board of Education are participating in what is set to be a big precinct walk in Tustin tomorrow. (Full disclosure: Custom Campaigns is the consultant running the Hammond race and Todd Spitzer is an advertiser on this blog).

Volunteers will meet at 9:00 AM at the Starbucks located at 552 East First Street in Tustin, CA 92780. This is in the Vons shopping center near the corner of 1st and Newport.

It is always a major sign of momentum to get a large group of people out walking to support candidates running for offices, especially non-partisan ones. With tomorrow scheduled to be  beautiful day according to weather reports this should be a great event.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Blogger Disclosures Open Up A Huge Can Of Worms

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 20, 2012

H/T to Total Buzz for posting on their blog the story on California potentially forcing bloggers to reveal if they have received payments from political campaigns.

I am sure that this will open me up for attack in the comment section, but I feel the need to take a stance against the idea of blogger payment disclosure (full disclosure I am a blogger). “OC Political” does receive money from advertisers or in the case of a client that has retained us as consultants we will provide an advertisement as part of the contract. We do not attempt to hide our advertisers our clients (simply look to your left). The real problem here is the bigger issue of California and the amount of overregulation they impose.

We openly disclose who our consulting clients are when writing posts that may impact them or potential opponents that they may face in an election. The reason we do this is to maintain our credibility as a blog and to ensure that our readers are aware of any potential bias that we may have.

However, having California regulate blogger payments is simply an overburdensome regulation. We already are supposed to be tracking this in the form 460’s filled out by all candidates that disclose who they received campaign contributions from and what they spent campaign money on as well.

FlashReport author Jon Fleischman sums the problem up best in his quote to the Orange County Register blog:

How would the Fair Political Practices Commission handle anonymous blogs? Would advertising revenue fall under the regulated payments? How would the commission educate amateur bloggers?

As stated before, we here at “OC Political” believe in disclosing our financial interests in campaigns, but only for the purpose of maintaining our credibility. Other blogs can do whatever they want in terms of disclosure, but should they choose not to disclose a financial gain from supporting a candidate or opposing a candidate the end result should simply be a loss of credibility not an FPPC fine.

With much bigger issues at play in California than blogging I think this is simply another smoke screen to distract away from the real budgetary problems that California faces.

Posted in California, Uncategorized | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Fullerton Recall

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 19, 2012

Now to one of the more controversial items on the ballot for this June in the Fullerton recall election. This race has been extremely vicious by both camps, and a lot is at stake with the Council majority up for grabs.

This race unlike other in this election is for 6 different things:

3 recalls

3 races to replace the recalled Councilmember (If recall passes)

The 3 Councilmembers up for recall include Don Bankead, Dick Jones, and Pat McKinley. Much question exists as to the real reason for the recall.

One side claims that the recall is because the Council has done a horrible job over the Kelly Thomas killing incident among other failures such as an alleged illegal water tax. The other side claims that Tony Bushala is simply trying to undo the results of the 2010 election and gain control of the Fullerton City Council.

The major factor at play here is that recalls once on the ballot never fail. This my prediction on the recall side of these races is:

All 3 Councilmembers Ousted

Unlike my other predictions the post does not stop with just that. A replacement must be made for each of the recalled Councilmembers.

The candidates running for the Don Bankhead seat include:

Rick Alvarez a Businessowner/Planning Commissioner who is a Republican. His appointment to the commission was actually by Don Bankhead.

Jane Rands a Systems Engineer and Green Party activist. She has run for quite a few offices in this area which will give her some name ID.

Greg Sebourn a Businessman/Educator and candidate for the Fullerton City Council in 2010. He is a Republican and the one mostly closely in line with the pro-recall folks.

Paula Williams a Public Employee and the only Democrat on the ballot for this seat.

The recall will pass but the elections for a replacement will likely come down to name ID and ballot designation. Greg Sebourn and Jane Rands will split the vote based on highest name ID leaving this seat to the candidate with the best ballot designation.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Rick Alvarez

The candidates running for the Dick Jones seat include:

Dorothy A. Birsic a Republican running with no ballot designation.

Glenn P. Georgieff an IT Specialist anda former Fullerton Library Trustee. He is a registered Democrat.

Matthew Hakim a Musician/Artist and registered Democrat.

Travis Kiger a Fullerton Planning Commissioner and the most closely in line with the pro-recall folks. He is a registered Republican.

Roberta J. Reid a student that is a DTS voter.

Once again this will likely come down to name ID and ballot designation. Travis Kiger has the best ballot designation out of all candidates in any of the 3 seats and he also has the highest name ID and the most comprehensive campaign being run. Nobody else has been actively in the mail, walking precincts, or putting up signs.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Travis Kiger

The candidates running for the Pat McKinley seat include:

Doug Chafee a Business Attorney and 2010 candidate for City Council. He is a registered Democrat and also a Fullerton Planning Commissioner.

Barry Levinson an Auditor/Parks Commissioner who is probably one of the most passionate people about local issues that I have ever seen. He is a registered Republican.

Sean Paden a Construction Attorney and a registered Republican.

Matthew Rowe an Aerospace Project Manager and a DTS voter.

This will be the closest of all 3 races. Barry Levinson has the best ballot designation in this race, however,  we have already witnessed him and Doug Chafee on the ballot in 2010. Chafee has the highest name ID of any candidate in this race yet he and Sean Paden split votes based on ballot designation.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district and mostly based on 2010 results I believe that the winner will be:

Doug Chafee

Posted in Fullerton | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 40 Comments »

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