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2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 74

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 25, 2012

(UPDATED 4:52 PM With Changes to the profile of Scott Peotter).

AD 74 Central Committee is the last of the race s that I will be handicapping for the June election. It has been a long and interesting process, and I hope that all of you readers have enjoyed these.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Emily Sanford– She is currently Scott Baugh’s alternate on the Central Committee and has been a volunteer with the OCGOP. I have heard people say nothing but nice things about her.

Christina L. Shea– She is best known for being one of the Republican members of the always fun Irvine City Council. In 2010 she was unable to run for re-election due to term limits.

Allan Bartlett– The leader of the OC Ron Paul fan club. He is a Libertarian leaning Republican that was recently involved in the blocked endorsement of John Campbell. *Incumbent.

John Draper– I don’t know a lot about him, although he is currently on the Central Committee and appears to be part of the tea party wing of the committee. *Incumbent.

Scott Baugh– Currently the Chairman of the Republican Party of Orange County also former Assembly Republican leader. He is usually way out in first place on election night. *Incumbent.

Greg Baker– I could find nothing on him.

Jon Aiken– Jon used to be on the Central Committee and has been a long time volunteer with the OC GOP since at least 2006.

Don Hansen– He is currently the Mayor of Huntington Beach and also rumored to be considering a run for the Orange County Board of Supervisors 2nd District.

Bill Dunlap– He ran for the Central Committee back in 2010 for the 70th district. In fact, he came quite close to winning the seat being just 250 votes short of defeating Allan Bartlett for the 6th and final spot.

Rhonda Rohrabacher– The wife of Congressman Dana Rohrabacher and also a political strategist. She has a lot of knowledge of the OC GOP and how it works. She is not an incumbent, but she will have residual name ID from Dana Rohrabacher.

Thomas A. Fuentes Jr.– The son of popular Republican Party Chairman Tom Fuentes. He was recently appointed as an alternate on the Central Committee created by the very classy Matt Holder.

Scott PeotterHe is a conservative attorney and also is best known to those that run in the same circles as members of the Family Action PAC. Apparently I mixed him up with his brother. Scott is a developer, Mansoor aide, former Newport Beach Planning Commissioner, and long-time GOP activist.

Gary R. Morse– I found when searching that he is an organizer with the Newport Mesa Tea Party Patriots.

Vanessa Mathews– I could find nothing on her.

Daniel Marshall– An Attorney who I could also find no information on.

Jeff Matthews– He and Vanessa Matthews are likely to split the vote by having similar names despite the fact that the last names are spelled slightly different.

Richard “Dick” Palmer– He is a Community Volunteer who I was unable to find much information about through Google.

John Warner– He is also an incumbent on the Central Committee and in my opinion will battle it out with Allan Bartlett for the 6th slot.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Scott Baugh
2. Emily Sanford
3. Don Hansen
4. Rhonda Rohrabacher
5. Thomas A. “T.J.” Fuentes
6. Toss Up John Warner/Allan Bartlett

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