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Prop 14 in Action: Intraparty Battles in November

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 6, 2012

It used to be that the top vote-getter from each party in the June primary election advanced to the November general election.  Well, Proposition 14 changed all that, requiring the top two candidates from the June primary to advance to November regardless of party, regardless of whether someone gained more than 50% of the vote, and regardless of whether there were only two candidates in June.

Like it or not, Prop 14 has caused a number of intraparty battles in November.  Specifically, 28 out of 153 races (18.3%) will be intraparty battles in November.  Here’s a rundown, based on last night’s results:

8 out of 53 Congressional races (15.1%), with two Democrats in 6 of the races and two Republicans in 2 of the races

  • CD-8: Two Republicans (Paul Cook and Gregg Imus)
  • CD-15: Two Democrats (incumbent Pete Stark and Eric Swalwell)
  • CD-30: Two incumbent Democrats! (Brad Sherman and Howard Berman)
  • CD-31: Two Republicans (incumbent Gary Miller and Bob Dutton)
  • CD-35: Two Democrats (incumbent Joe Baca and Gloria Negrete McLeod)
  • CD-40: Two Democrats (incumbent Lucille Roybal-Allard and David Sanchez)
  • CD-43: Two Democrats (incumbent Maxine Waters and Bob Flores)
  • CD-44: Two incumbent Democrats! (Janice Hahn and Laura Richardson)

2 out of 20 State Senate races (10%), with two Democrats in both races (it’s 20 Senate seats because Senate terms are staggered so only half the seats are on the ballot in any given general election)

  • SD-13: Two Democrats (Jerry Hill and Sally Lieber)
  • SD-15: Two Democrats (Jim Beall and Joe Coto)

18 out of 80 State Assembly races (22.5%), with two Democrats in 12 of the races and two Republicans in 6 of the races

  • AD-1: Two Republicans (Brian Dahle and Rick Bosetti)
  • AD-2: Two Democrats (incumbent Wesley Chesbro and Tom Lynch)
  • AD-5: Two Republicans (Rico Oller and Frank Bigelow)
  • AD-10: Two Democrats (incumbent Michael Allen and Marc Levine)
  • AD-18: Two Democrats (Rob Bonta and Abel Guillen)
  • AD-19: Two Democrats (Phil Ting and Michael Breyer)
  • AD-20: Two Democrats (Bill Quirk and Jennifer Ong)
  • AD-23: Two Republicans (Jim Patterson and Bob Whalen)
  • AD-39: Two Democrats (Raul Bocanegra and Richard Alaron)
  • AD-46: Two Democrats (Adam Nazarian and Brian Johnson)
  • AD-47: Two Democrats (Joe Baca, Jr. and Cheryl Brown)
  • AD-50: Two Democrats (incumbent Betsy Butler and Richard Bloom)
  • AD-51: Two Democrats (Jimmy Gomez and Luis Lopez)
  • AD-59: Two Democrats (Reggie Jones-Sawyer and Rodney Robinson)
  • AD-62: Two Democrats (incumbent Steven Bradford and Mervin Evans)
  • AD-67: Two Republicans (Phil Paule and Melissa Melendez)
  • AD-72: Two Republicans (Troy Edgar and Travis Allen)
  • AD-76: Two Republicans (Rocky Chavez and Sherry Hodges)

Posted in 72nd Assembly District, California | 5 Comments »

Live Blogging from My Polling Place

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 5, 2012

Well, info-junkies, 4600 of you have visited OC Political trying to find info on this election day. Results don’t come in for a little over an hour, so to tide you over, I’m live-blogging from my polling place.

This is my first time ever voting at the polls, as I’ve cast an absentee ballot in every election since I turned 18 years old.

At 6:52, I notice a Deborah Pauly for Supervisor sign at the main road leading to my polling place.

At 6:54, I find a half-full parking lot and get a relatively close parking space.

At 6:55, I enter. There’s some minor confusion as I surrender my absentee ballot. There are only two other voters present.

At 6:59, I begin voting.

For President, hm.

Ron Paul has a lot of online followers. Oh wait, Americans Elect’s online primary failed.

How about Mitt Romney? Polls show 2% of the American people believe his full first name is Mittens.

Sigh…

Republican Central Committee, 68th District

Clearly, the goal is to maximize the temptation for Brown Act violations at Central Committee.

Ah, the majority of the Orange City Council is on the ballot: Mayor Pro Tem Denis Bilodeau and Councilmen Jon Dumitru and Fred Whitaker.

Let’s see: Shawn Nelson will likely win in the 65th, and Janet Nguyen will likely win in the 72nd, so to put the majority of the Board of Supervisors on Central Committee, 68th District voters can vote for both Todd Spitzer and Deborah Pauly for Central Committee.

US Senate

I scroll over Orly Taitz’s name, but am concerned that I haven’t seen her naturalization certificate.

Dan Hughes is the interim Fullerton Police Chief. Oh, it’s not the same one?

Elizabeth Emken is the CRP-endorsed candidate. Wait, wasn’t CRP responsible for Watergate? Oh, different CRP?

US Representative, 39th District
Let’s see: White Republican Ed Royce, Asian Democrat Jay Chen, or white independent D’Marie Mulattieri.

According to conventional wisdom, Asian voters vote for Asian candidates. Conventional wisdom also says Republican voters vote for Republican candidates.

What’s an Asian Republican to do? Vote the color of my skin (though a different ethnicity) or vote my party/beliefs. Hm, skin color or beliefs?

State Senate, 37th District

Mimi Walters vs. Steve Young

So a character from The Drew Carey Show is running against an NFL star?

State Assembly, 68th District

Don Wagner vs. Christina Avalos

Yeah, I’ve got no lame wisecracks for this one. Sorry.

Judge of the Superior Court, Office #1

Deborah Chuang vs. Eugene Jizhak

Man, this is a boring streak on the ballot.

County Board of Education, Trustee Area 3

Hey, isn’t Ken Williams that doctor from the “No on 29” commercial?

County Supervisor, 3rd District

Spitzer vs. Pauly

Wait, didn’t Spitzer resign as Governor of New York in a prostitution scandal? And when did Pauly leave the cast of Jersey Shore? Why are these East Coasters carpetbagging to become Orange County Supervisor.

Oh, they’re different people. Darn.

Ballot Measures

Eh, I’m losing steam.

At 7:02, I finish voting.

Okay, sarcastic live blogging done. Real live blogging kicks in at 8:05 PM when the real results come in.

Posted in 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 68th Assembly District, Anaheim, California, Orange County, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Polls are Open! Latest Voter Turnout/Absentee Return Numbers; Find Your Polling Place

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 5, 2012

Absentee BallotPolls are now open in the June 5, 2012 Primary.  Find your polling place here.

If you’re an absentee voter who hasn’t already submitted their ballot, find any polling place in Orange County, and drop it off before 8 PM today.

The Registrar of Voters reports that 198,235 out of 684,836 absentee ballots issued have been returned as of this morning, or a 28.9% voter turnout rate among absentee voters as of this morning.

There are 1,612,145 registered voters in Orange County, as of May 21 (the last day someone could register to vote to be eligible to vote in the June 5 election).  That means 42.5% of all registered voters were issued absentee ballots.  That also means 12.3% of registered voters in Orange County have turned out to vote as of this morning.

Posted in California, Orange County | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

T-Minus 12 Hours Until Polls Open

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 4, 2012

Polls open in 12 hours for the June 5, 2012 Primary.  Find your polling place here.

If you’re an absentee voter who hasn’t already submitted their ballot, find any polling place in Orange County, and drop it off tomorrow before 8 PM.

The Registrar of Voters reports that 181,327 out of 684,836 absentee ballots issued have been returned so far, or a 26.5% voter turnout rate among absentee voters so far.

Posted in California, Orange County | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

California’s Plausible Independent Candidates

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 4, 2012

Traditionally, after a California primary election, the top vote-getter from each party would advance to the general election, so you could have one Republican, one Democrat, one American Independent, one Libertarian, one Green, and one Peace and Freedom.  An independent (known as a Decline-to-State or DTS back then) could only get on the ballot by petition with the signatures of literally thousands of registered voters.  Well, Prop 14 changed all that.  Now, it’s just as easy for an independent (known as No Party Preference or NPP) to get on the ballot as a candidate affiliated with a party.  If the independent is one of the top two vote-getters, they advance to November’s quasi-runoff that pits the top two candidates against each other in the general election (even if somebody gets more than 50% of the vote in June, there’s still a November runoff required; indeed, even if there’s only one candidate in June, they still advance to a November runoff where there’s only one candidate on the ballot).

So here’s a look at the dozen most plausible independent candidates running in California in tomorrow’s election. (Yes, that’s right we’re less than 23 hours away from the polls opening in the primary!)

(Party registrations do not add up to 100% in the figures below because I have not listed third party registration.)

Former Assemblyman Anthony Adams, Supervisor Linda Parks, and College District Trustee Chad Walsh

California’s most viable independent candidates: Former Assemblyman Anthony Adams (CD-8), Supervisor Linda Parks (CD-26), and College District Trustee Chad Walsh (AD-28)

Could Be Elected

  • 8th Congressional District: Former Assemblyman Anthony Adams
    Former Republican Assemblyman Anthony Adams is running as an independent candidate.  In addition to Adams, there are two Democrats and ten Republicans running.  Among the Republicans are a State Assemblyman (Paul Cook), a County Supervisor (Brad Mitzelfelt), a Mayor (Ryan McEachron of Victorville), and a Councilwoman (Angela Valles of Victorville).  CD-8’s registered voters are: 41.8% Republicans, 32.5% Democrats, and 19.5% NPPs.  It’s entirely possible that the ten Republicans could split enough of the Republican vote to allow the NPP Adams to advance to November against a Democrat and presumably win in November due to the plurality Republicans’ preference for an independent over a Democrat.
  • 26th Congressional District: Supervisor Linda Parks
    In this open seat, the three leading candidates are State Senator Tony Strickland (R-Moorpark), State Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D-Santa Monica), and Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks (NPP-Thousand Oaks).  (98.3% of CD-26’s registered voters live in Ventura County.)  Strickland is the sole Republican, and Parks is the sole NPP, but Brownley is one of four Democrats in the race.  In CD-26, Democrats make up 40.2% of registered voters, Republicans 35.7%, and NPP 19.2%.  If the Democratic vote is divided enough among the four Democrats or Parks eats up enough slices of the major party votes, this could send Parks into November.  In November, she could win, as this is a swing seat.  In a Brownley-Parks race, a Republican-NPP coalition could put Supervisor Parks in Congress.  In a Strickland-Parks race, a Democratic-NPP coalition could put Supervisor Parks in Congress.
  • 28th Assembly District: College District Trustee Chad Walsh
    Assemblyman Paul Fong (D-Cupertino) faces exactly one challenger to his re-election bid: West Valley-Mission Community College District Trustee Chad Walsh (NPP-Los Gatos).  In AD-28, Democrats make up 43.0% of registered voters, Republicans are 26.3%, and NPPs are 27.1%.  If Trustee Walsh can cobble together a solid Republican-NPP coalition or peel off enough of the Democratic vote, Walsh could upset Fong’s re-election bid to become the first independent elected to the Assembly in over half-a-century (several major party legislators, like Juan Arambula and Nathan Fletcher, became independents during their tenures but none were elected as independents).  Unseating an incumbent is a tall order, but it’s at least plausible for Trustee Walsh to pull it off.

Will Likely Advance to November But Won’t Be Elected

  • 19th Congressional District: Jay Blas Jacob Cabrera
    Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose) has three opponents in her bid for re-election: Republican Robert Murray, Republican Phat Nguyen, and NPP Jay Blas Jacob Cabrera.  Democrats make up 47.3% of CD-19’s registered voters, Republicans 22.6%, and NPPs are 26.3%.  With the Republican vote split two ways and NPP voters already outnumbering Republicans, it’s likely that Cabrera advances to November, where he’ll be stomped by incumbent Lofgren.
  • 23rd Congressional District: Terry Phillips
    House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) has two opponents in his bid for re-election: fellow Republican Eric Parker and NPP Terry Phillips, a radio reporter from a local NPR affiliate.  In CD-23, Republicans are 46.9% of registered voters, Democrats are 29.7%, and NPPs are 18.4%.  If he captures the votes of enough Democrats and NPP voters unwilling to vote for a Republican, Phillips will advance to November but lose handily to McCarthy.
  • 29th Congressional District: David Hernandez
    In this open seat, City Councilman Tony Cardenas (D-Los Angeles) faces off against fellow Democrat Richard Valdez and NPP David Hernandez.  Democrats make up 54.6% of registered voters in CD-29, Republicans are 16.4%, and NPPs are 22.3%.  If Hernandez captures the votes of enough Republicans and NPP voters unwilling to vote for a Democrat (and Valdez doesn’t eat up too much of the Democratic vote), Hernandez will advance to November but be crushed by Cardenas.
  • 20th Assembly District: Mayor Mark Green
    There are five candidates for the open AD-20 seat: Republican Hayward Unified School District Board Member Luis Reynoso, NPP Union City Mayor Mark Green, Democratic Hayward Councilman Bill Quirk, Democrat Jennifer Ong, and Democrat Sarabjit Kaur Cheema.  In AD-20, Democrats are 54.2% of registered voters, Republicans are 17.1%, and NPPs are 22.4%.  If Mayor Green captures the independent vote and/or is able to peel off enough of the Democratic or Republican vote, he could slip in to November but be defeated in his face-off against Quirk.
  • 24th Assembly District: Joseph Antonelli Rosas
    Assemblyman Rich Gordon (D-Menlo Park) faces three opponents: Fellow Democrat Geby Espinosa, Republican Chengzhi “George” Yang, and NPP Joseph Antonelli Rosas.  In AD-24, Democrats make up 47.6% of registered voters, Republicans 21.8%, and NPPs 27.3%.  If independents flock to Rosas, he could advance to November to face off against Gordon.

Decent Shot at Advancing to November

  • 13th Congressional District: Marilyn M. Singleton
    Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) has two opponents in her bid for re-election: fellow Democrat Justin Jelincic and NPP Marilyn M. Singleton.  Democrats make up 63.9% of registered voters in CD-13, Republicans are 8.6%, and NPPs are 19.9%, so if Lee holds enough of her own party’s vote, she’ll face Singleton rather than Jelincic in November and win summarily in a landslide.
  • 42nd Congressional District: Curt Novak
    Congressman Ken Calvert (R-Corona) has five opponents in his bid for re-election: fellow Republican Eva Jones, fellow Republican Clayton Thibodeau, Democrat Cliff Smith, Democrat Michael Williamson, and NPP Curt Novak.   Republicans make up 45.2% of registered CD-42 voters, Democrats are 29.9%, and NPPs are 19.9%.  If the Democratic vote is split enough, Novak could end up getting more votes than any of the Democrats and advance to November to face off against Calvert.
  • 46th Congressional District: Jorge Rocha
    Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez (D-Santa Ana) has four opponents in her bid for re-election: Republican Jerry Hayden, Republican John Cullum, Republican Pat Garcia, and NPP Jorge Rocha.   Democrats make up 44.2% of registered CD-46 voters, Republicans are 31.2%, and NPPs are 20.5%.  If the Republican vote is split enough, or if he peels off enough of the Republican vote, Rocha could end up getting more votes than any of the Republicans and advance to November to face off against Sanchez.
  • 10th Assembly District: Joe Boswell
    Assemblyman Michael Allen (D-Santa Rosa) has six opponents: San Rafael Councilman Marc Levine (a fellow Democrat), fellow Democrat Alex Easton-Brown, fellow Democrat Christian Gunderson, fellow Democrat Connie Wong, Republican Peter Mancus, and NPP Joe Boswell.  In AD-10, Democrats make up 53.7% of registered voters, Republicans 19.7%, and NPPs 21.7%.  If Boswell manages to peel off some of the Republican or Democratic vote, Boswell could advance to November to be crushed by Allen.

Posted in California | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

California Mailbox: No On 29 Mails Twice

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 3, 2012

No on 29 had a really good week with polls showing that it will be very close on election day. They were in the mail twice and I guess their plain pieces are sort of growing on me.

The first mail piece:


 

 

 

 

 
Here is the second mailer:

Posted in California, Mail | Leave a Comment »

U.S. Senate Poll: Feinstein at 42%, Emken & Hughes Lead Republicans with 4%; Taitz Tied for Sixth Among Republicans and Tenth Overall

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 3, 2012

Dianne Feinstein

Dianne Feinstein leads all 23 of her opponents combined. Feinstein has 42%, her opponents have a combined 34%, and 24% of likely voters remain undecided.

SurveyUSA appears to be the only poll in the state that has looked at the U.S. Senate race.  The others probably thought it was a waste of time and money.

Under the headline, “Feinstein Opponent Unknowable Heading into Final Weekend Before Primary” the latest SurveyUSA poll was released on Thursday (after polling voters from Sunday through Tuesday) shows the following results for the Top 10 of the 24 candidates for U.S. Senate:

Feinstein, a Democrat, leads or ties for the lead in every subgroup.  She’s in a three-way tie with Emken and Hughes among Republicans.  Feinstein ties Hughes among very conservative voters.  She leads in every other subgroup, even TEA Party Members, conservatives, pro-life voters, and evangelical Christians.

Emken has the best shot of capturing the undecided vote to come in a distant second behind Feinstein since Emken’s endorsement by the California Republican Party is listed in voters’ sample ballots, the only thing that is mailed to every single registered voter in the state.

Whoever comes in second has a very tall order to topple California’s 20-year Senator.

Four hypothetical general election matchups were polled:

  • Feinstein Defeats Emken 50%-34% (16% Feinstein Advantage)
  • Feinstein Defeats Taitz 54%-29% (25% Feinstein Advantage)
  • Feinstein Defeats Ramirez 52%-32% (20% Feinstein Advantage)
  • Feinstein Defeats Hughes 52%-31% (21% Feinstein Advantage)

Once it’s narrowed down to two candidates, each of the four Republicans lead Feinstein in the following subgroups: Republicans, TEA Party members, very conservative voters, conservative voters, and pro-life voters.  Emken leads Feinstein in the Central Valley and splits the evangelical Christian vote evenly with Feinstein.  Ramirez leads Feinstein in the evangelical Christian vote.

The only other poll on California’s U.S. Senate race was SurveyUSA’s April 3 poll (after polling voters March 29-April 2) showed the following as the top 10 candidates:

At that time, Feinstein led every subgroup, even Republicans and very conservative voters.  Her massive lead has decreased, but it’s such a massive lead, she is one of the safer incumbents in the country.

It’s still a free-for-all to determine who will come in second to advance to November against Feinstein, but suffice it to say, on June 5, Feinstein’s team will only be watching her election results to see if she breaks 50%.

Posted in California | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Two Polls: Prop. 29 Lead Drops to Single Digits

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 3, 2012

The latest poll from Survey USA, released on Thursday, shows Proposition 29 (tobacco tax) leading by 42%-38% margin, with 20% undecided.  The poll measured likely voters from May 27-29.

The latest Field Poll, also released on Thursday, shows Prop 29 leading by a 50%-42% margin, with 8% undecided.  The poll measured likely voters from May 21-29.

Here’s a comparison of polling on Proposition 29 (tobacco tax) over time:

Dates Poll Yes No Spread
5/27-5/29 SurveyUSA 42% 38% Yes +4%
5/21-5/29 Field 50% 42% Yes +8%
5/17-5/21 USC/LAT 62% 33% Yes +29%
5/14-5/20 PPIC 53% 42% Yes +11%
3/14-3/19 USC/LAT 68% 29% Yes +39%
2/21-2/28 PPIC 67% 30% Yes +37%

Compensating for variation in polls, note that the PPIC poll found Prop 29 declined from a 37% lead to an 11% lead while the USC/LA Times poll found Prop 29 declined from a 39% lead to a 29% lead.

The trend is clear.  A supermajority of Californians supported Prop 29 before the campaigns started, but once the campaign came underway, the No on 29 campaign outspent Yes on 29 by a 4-1 margin, allowing the Anti-Prop 29 message to make enormous inroads, cutting the Pro-Prop 29 into a single digit lead, but will the ad blitz be enough to push Prop 29 to defeat?  The anti-Prop 29 side’s biggest enemy may be time: absentee voters cast their ballots while Prop 29 was leading, and the polling trend seems to point to poll voters splitting evenly or narrowly opposing Prop 29, leaving absentee voters to save the day for Prop 29, which may narrowly pass.

Newspaper endorsements have been unexpectedly evenly split in California, with 14 major papers endorsing Prop 29 and 14 major papers opposing Prop 29.  Surprisingly, both of OC’s major papers: the OC Register and the LA Times both oppose Prop 29.  How often do those two papers’ editorial boards agree?

SurveyUSA found that the following subgroups support Prop 29:

  • Men (44%-42%)
  • Women (39%-35%)
  • People Ages 18-34 (54%-30%)
  • People Over 65 (44%-38%)
  • Hispanics (42%-37%)
  • Asians (50%-25%)
  • Cell Phone Users Without Land Lines (60%-24%)
  • People Who Have Already Voted (52%-45%)
  • People Who Have Not Yet Voted (38%-36%)
  • Democrats (48%-27%)
  • Independents [NPP/DTS] (51%-37%)
  • People Outside the TEA Party (43%-36%)
  • Moderates (43%-38%)
  • Liberals (55%-22%)
  • Very Liberal People (69%-16%)
  • College-Educated People (48%-33%)
  • Non-Evangelicals (46%-35%)
  • Pro-Choice People (46%-35%)
  • People Who Make Less than $40,000 Per Year (37%-35%)
  • People Who Make More than $80,000 Per Year (46%-39%)
  • Residents of the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area (37%-36%)
  • Residents of the Bay Area/Northern Coast of California (55%-27%)

SurveyUSA found that the following subgroups oppose Prop 29:

  • People Ages 35-49 (40%-36%)
  • People Ages 50-64 (43%-35%)
  • White People (43%-40%)
  • Black People (38%-36%)
  • People Who Have Landline Telephones [including those who have both cell phones and landlines] (42%-37%)
  • Republicans (56%-28%)
  • TEA Party Members (60%-33%)
  • Very Conservative People (63%-25%)
  • Conservatives (53%-26%)
  • High School-Educated People (41%-36%)
  • People With Some College Education But No Bachelor’s Degree (46%-33%)
  • Evangelical Christians (48%-30%)
  • Pro-Life People (46%-35%)
  • People Who Make $40,000-$80,000 Per Year (41%-39%)
  • Central Valley Residents (48%-37%)
  • Inland Empire Residents (43%-40%)

The Field Poll found that the following subgroups support Prop 29:

  • Democrats (61%-32%)
  • No party preference/third party (61%-32%)
  • Moderates (52%-39%)
  • Liberals (72%-24%)
  • LA County Residents (49%-40%)
  • San Francisco Bay Area Residents (68%-27%)
  • Northern Californians from Outside the Bay Area (54%-38%)
  • Women (55%-37%)
  • People Aged 18-39 (66%-24%)
  • People Aged 40-64 (49%-42%)
  • People Who Have Never Smoked (55%-36%)
  • Poll Voters (48%-43%)
  • Absentee Voters (51%-41%)

The Field Poll found that the following subgroups oppose Prop 29:

  • Republicans (58%-32%)
  • Conservatives (57%-32%)
  • Southern Californians from Outside LA County (54%-36%)
  • Men (48%-44%)
  • People Over the Age of 65 (51%-42%)
  • Current Smokers (75%-17%)
  • Former Smokers (47%-46%)

PPIC found that the following subgroups support Prop 29:

  • Democrats (66%-29%)
  • Independents (61%-37%)
  • Liberals (64%-30%)
  • Moderates (60%-36%)
  • People Aged 18-34 (76%-24%)
  • People Aged 35-54 (53%-42%)

PPIC found that the following subgroups oppose Prop 29:

  • Republicans (59%-37%)
  • Conservatives (56%-40%)
  • People Over the Age of 55 (48%-45%)

Posted in California | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Prop. 28 Leads by Double-Digit Margin in All Polls

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 2, 2012

The latest Field Poll released on Thursday shows Proposition 28 (term limits) leading 50%-28%, with 22% undecided. The poll measured likely voters from May 21-29.

Here’s a comparison of polling on Proposition 28 (term limits) over time:

Dates Poll Yes No Spread
5/21-5/29 Field 50% 28% Yes +22%
5/17-5/21 USC/LAT 49% 33% Yes +16%
5/14-5/20 PPIC 62% 29% Yes +33%
3/14-3/19 USC/LAT 51% 32% Yes +19%
2/21-2/28 PPIC 68% 24% Yes +44%

Compensating for variation in polls, note that the PPIC poll found Prop 28 declined from a 44% lead to a 33% lead while the USC/LA Times poll found Prop 28 declined from 19% to 16%.

The PPIC poll found that Prop 28 leads in every subgroup they had: Republicans (63%-28%), Democrats (60%-31%), Independents [no party preference] (66%-22%), conservatives (64%-26%), moderates (66%-26%), liberals (55%-36%), college graduates (56%-35%), people with some college education (66%-25%), and people with a high school education or less (65%-24%).

The USC/LA Times poll also found that Prop 28 leads in almost every subgroup they had: Republicans (46%-36%), Democrats (51%-30%), decline-to-state [no party preference/independents] 52%-35%), third party (35%-32%), whites (50%-32%), Latinos (53%-31%), minorities overall (50%-31%), people with children (47%-39%), people without children (50%-30%), people aged 30-39 (43%-31%), people aged 40-49 (57%-29%), people aged 50-64 (53%-31%), and people over 64 (52%-29%).

The USC/LA Times poll found that black voters actually oppose Prop 28 by a 45%-34% margin, and people aged 18-29 oppose Prop 28 by a 42%-37% margin.

The Field Poll also found that Prop 28 leads in every subgroup they had: Republicans (50%-32%), Democrats (50%-25%), no party preference [independent]/other (51%-30%), conservatives (45%-32%), moderates (59%-22%), liberals (46%-33%), LA County (46%-29%), Southern California outside LA County (49%-31%), San Francisco Bay Area (52%-30%), Northern California outside the Bay Area (55%-23%), men (53%-32%), women (48%-25%), people aged 18-39 (50%-23%), people aged 40-64 (50%-29%), people 65 and older (50%-31%), precinct [poll] voters (48%-28%), and mail ballot [absentee] voters (52%-29%).

Posted in California | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Where is Orly Taitz’s Naturalization Certificate?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 1, 2012

Happy Friday, readers!  Today, we’ll take a look at a rather under-covered issue in this year’s U.S. Senate race.

Back in April 2011, Barack Obama released his birth certificate.  Earlier this week, on Tuesday, Mitt Romney released his birth certificate.

Birth Certificates for Barack Obama & Mitt Romney

Barack Obama’s birth certificate (left) and Mitt Romney’s birth certificate (right)

These birth certificates indicate that Obama was born in Honolulu, Hawaii while Romney was born in Detroit, Michigan.  The documents also state that Obama’s mother was born in Kansas while Romney’s mother was born in Utah.  These certificates also show that Obama’s father was born in the foreign country of Kenya while Romney’s father was born in the foreign country of Mexico.

Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution requires:

No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.

So only a natural born citizen can be President of the United States.

U.S. Senate candidate Orly Taitz has repeatedly launched lawsuits challenging the authenticity of Obama’s birth certificate and asserting that Obama is not a natural born citizen.

Article I, Section 3 of the Constitution requires:

No Person shall be a Senator who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty Years, and been nine Years a Citizen of the United States, and who shall not, when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State for which he shall be chosen.

Taitz freely states that she was born in the former Soviet Union in present-day Moldova.  She claims she became a naturalized citizen in 1992.  However, she has never released her naturalization certificate.

Obama and Romney have released their birth certificates, yet Taitz has not released her naturalization certificate.  If she were simply a private citizen, she’d have no obligation to do so, but now that she is running for the United States Senate, should it not be incumbent upon her to prove that she meets the constitutional requirements to become a U.S. Senator?

If she is a properly-naturalized citizen, then Taitz should just release her naturalization certificate.  Why hasn’t she released her naturalization certificate?  Does she have something to hide?

Posted in California, National | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

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