OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Prop. 28 Leads by Double-Digit Margin in All Polls

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 2, 2012

The latest Field Poll released on Thursday shows Proposition 28 (term limits) leading 50%-28%, with 22% undecided. The poll measured likely voters from May 21-29.

Here’s a comparison of polling on Proposition 28 (term limits) over time:

Dates Poll Yes No Spread
5/21-5/29 Field 50% 28% Yes +22%
5/17-5/21 USC/LAT 49% 33% Yes +16%
5/14-5/20 PPIC 62% 29% Yes +33%
3/14-3/19 USC/LAT 51% 32% Yes +19%
2/21-2/28 PPIC 68% 24% Yes +44%

Compensating for variation in polls, note that the PPIC poll found Prop 28 declined from a 44% lead to a 33% lead while the USC/LA Times poll found Prop 28 declined from 19% to 16%.

The PPIC poll found that Prop 28 leads in every subgroup they had: Republicans (63%-28%), Democrats (60%-31%), Independents [no party preference] (66%-22%), conservatives (64%-26%), moderates (66%-26%), liberals (55%-36%), college graduates (56%-35%), people with some college education (66%-25%), and people with a high school education or less (65%-24%).

The USC/LA Times poll also found that Prop 28 leads in almost every subgroup they had: Republicans (46%-36%), Democrats (51%-30%), decline-to-state [no party preference/independents] 52%-35%), third party (35%-32%), whites (50%-32%), Latinos (53%-31%), minorities overall (50%-31%), people with children (47%-39%), people without children (50%-30%), people aged 30-39 (43%-31%), people aged 40-49 (57%-29%), people aged 50-64 (53%-31%), and people over 64 (52%-29%).

The USC/LA Times poll found that black voters actually oppose Prop 28 by a 45%-34% margin, and people aged 18-29 oppose Prop 28 by a 42%-37% margin.

The Field Poll also found that Prop 28 leads in every subgroup they had: Republicans (50%-32%), Democrats (50%-25%), no party preference [independent]/other (51%-30%), conservatives (45%-32%), moderates (59%-22%), liberals (46%-33%), LA County (46%-29%), Southern California outside LA County (49%-31%), San Francisco Bay Area (52%-30%), Northern California outside the Bay Area (55%-23%), men (53%-32%), women (48%-25%), people aged 18-39 (50%-23%), people aged 40-64 (50%-29%), people 65 and older (50%-31%), precinct [poll] voters (48%-28%), and mail ballot [absentee] voters (52%-29%).

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