OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

U.S. Senate Poll: Feinstein at 42%, Emken & Hughes Lead Republicans with 4%; Taitz Tied for Sixth Among Republicans and Tenth Overall

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 3, 2012

Dianne Feinstein

Dianne Feinstein leads all 23 of her opponents combined. Feinstein has 42%, her opponents have a combined 34%, and 24% of likely voters remain undecided.

SurveyUSA appears to be the only poll in the state that has looked at the U.S. Senate race.  The others probably thought it was a waste of time and money.

Under the headline, “Feinstein Opponent Unknowable Heading into Final Weekend Before Primary” the latest SurveyUSA poll was released on Thursday (after polling voters from Sunday through Tuesday) shows the following results for the Top 10 of the 24 candidates for U.S. Senate:

Feinstein, a Democrat, leads or ties for the lead in every subgroup.  She’s in a three-way tie with Emken and Hughes among Republicans.  Feinstein ties Hughes among very conservative voters.  She leads in every other subgroup, even TEA Party Members, conservatives, pro-life voters, and evangelical Christians.

Emken has the best shot of capturing the undecided vote to come in a distant second behind Feinstein since Emken’s endorsement by the California Republican Party is listed in voters’ sample ballots, the only thing that is mailed to every single registered voter in the state.

Whoever comes in second has a very tall order to topple California’s 20-year Senator.

Four hypothetical general election matchups were polled:

  • Feinstein Defeats Emken 50%-34% (16% Feinstein Advantage)
  • Feinstein Defeats Taitz 54%-29% (25% Feinstein Advantage)
  • Feinstein Defeats Ramirez 52%-32% (20% Feinstein Advantage)
  • Feinstein Defeats Hughes 52%-31% (21% Feinstein Advantage)

Once it’s narrowed down to two candidates, each of the four Republicans lead Feinstein in the following subgroups: Republicans, TEA Party members, very conservative voters, conservative voters, and pro-life voters.  Emken leads Feinstein in the Central Valley and splits the evangelical Christian vote evenly with Feinstein.  Ramirez leads Feinstein in the evangelical Christian vote.

The only other poll on California’s U.S. Senate race was SurveyUSA’s April 3 poll (after polling voters March 29-April 2) showed the following as the top 10 candidates:

At that time, Feinstein led every subgroup, even Republicans and very conservative voters.  Her massive lead has decreased, but it’s such a massive lead, she is one of the safer incumbents in the country.

It’s still a free-for-all to determine who will come in second to advance to November against Feinstein, but suffice it to say, on June 5, Feinstein’s team will only be watching her election results to see if she breaks 50%.

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