OC Political

The latest poll from Survey USA, released on Thursday, shows Proposition 29 (tobacco tax) leading by 42%-38% margin, with 20% undecided.  The poll measured likely voters from May 27-29.

The latest Field Poll, also released on Thursday, shows Prop 29 leading by a 50%-42% margin, with 8% undecided.  The poll measured likely voters from May 21-29.

Here’s a comparison of polling on Proposition 29 (tobacco tax) over time:

Compensating for variation in polls, note that the PPIC poll found Prop 29 declined from a 37% lead to an 11% lead while the USC/LA Times poll found Prop 29 declined from a 39% lead to a 29% lead.

The trend is clear.  A supermajority of Californians supported Prop 29 before the campaigns started, but once the campaign came underway, the No on 29 campaign outspent Yes on 29 by a 4-1 margin, allowing the Anti-Prop 29 message to make enormous inroads, cutting the Pro-Prop 29 into a single digit lead, but will the ad blitz be enough to push Prop 29 to defeat?  The anti-Prop 29 side’s biggest enemy may be time: absentee voters cast their ballots while Prop 29 was leading, and the polling trend seems to point to poll voters splitting evenly or narrowly opposing Prop 29, leaving absentee voters to save the day for Prop 29, which may narrowly pass.

Newspaper endorsements have been unexpectedly evenly split in California, with 14 major papers endorsing Prop 29 and 14 major papers opposing Prop 29.  Surprisingly, both of OC’s major papers: the OC Register and the LA Times both oppose Prop 29.  How often do those two papers’ editorial boards agree?

SurveyUSA found that the following subgroups support Prop 29:

• Men (44%-42%)
• Women (39%-35%)
• People Ages 18-34 (54%-30%)
• People Over 65 (44%-38%)
• Hispanics (42%-37%)
• Asians (50%-25%)
• Cell Phone Users Without Land Lines (60%-24%)
• People Who Have Already Voted (52%-45%)
• People Who Have Not Yet Voted (38%-36%)
• Democrats (48%-27%)
• Independents [NPP/DTS] (51%-37%)
• People Outside the TEA Party (43%-36%)
• Moderates (43%-38%)
• Liberals (55%-22%)
• Very Liberal People (69%-16%)
• College-Educated People (48%-33%)
• Non-Evangelicals (46%-35%)
• Pro-Choice People (46%-35%)
• People Who Make Less than $40,000 Per Year (37%-35%)
• People Who Make More than $80,000 Per Year (46%-39%)
• Residents of the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area (37%-36%)
• Residents of the Bay Area/Northern Coast of California (55%-27%)

SurveyUSA found that the following subgroups oppose Prop 29:

• People Ages 35-49 (40%-36%)
• People Ages 50-64 (43%-35%)
• White People (43%-40%)
• Black People (38%-36%)
• People Who Have Landline Telephones [including those who have both cell phones and landlines] (42%-37%)
• Republicans (56%-28%)
• TEA Party Members (60%-33%)
• Very Conservative People (63%-25%)
• Conservatives (53%-26%)
• High School-Educated People (41%-36%)
• People With Some College Education But No Bachelor’s Degree (46%-33%)
• Evangelical Christians (48%-30%)
• Pro-Life People (46%-35%)
• People Who Make $40,000-$80,000 Per Year (41%-39%)
• Central Valley Residents (48%-37%)
• Inland Empire Residents (43%-40%)

The Field Poll found that the following subgroups support Prop 29:

• Democrats (61%-32%)
• No party preference/third party (61%-32%)
• Moderates (52%-39%)
• Liberals (72%-24%)
• LA County Residents (49%-40%)
• San Francisco Bay Area Residents (68%-27%)
• Northern Californians from Outside the Bay Area (54%-38%)
• Women (55%-37%)
• People Aged 18-39 (66%-24%)
• People Aged 40-64 (49%-42%)
• People Who Have Never Smoked (55%-36%)
• Poll Voters (48%-43%)
• Absentee Voters (51%-41%)

The Field Poll found that the following subgroups oppose Prop 29:

• Republicans (58%-32%)
• Conservatives (57%-32%)
• Southern Californians from Outside LA County (54%-36%)
• Men (48%-44%)
• People Over the Age of 65 (51%-42%)
• Current Smokers (75%-17%)
• Former Smokers (47%-46%)

PPIC found that the following subgroups support Prop 29:

• Democrats (66%-29%)
• Independents (61%-37%)
• Liberals (64%-30%)
• Moderates (60%-36%)
• People Aged 18-34 (76%-24%)
• People Aged 35-54 (53%-42%)

PPIC found that the following subgroups oppose Prop 29:

• Republicans (59%-37%)
• Conservatives (56%-40%)
• People Over the Age of 55 (48%-45%)