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Archive for March, 2012

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Hammond Enters OCBE Race & Withdraws from AD-69, Producing OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 11, 2012

Robert HammondThere are no Republicans running for AD-69, leaving OC Democrats’ worst-case scenario in place.  With no Republicans running for AD-69, Democrats will now spend their human and financial resources attacking each other in June and again in November.  Under Prop 14, the top two finishers in June advance to November.  The presumption had always been that it would be the top Democrat and Republican Robert Morris Hammond facing off in November.  With Hammond out, the Democrats now effectively have to run their expensive primary twice.

OC Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly, Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez, Union Leader Julio Perez, and Businessman Paco Barragan were supposed to sort out who would carry the Democrats’ banner against Hammond in November.  There had been much speculation that the Latino vote would split, allowing Daly to win the plurality of the Democrats to face off against Hammond, who would consolidate the entirety of the Republican vote.  However, Hammond’s withdrawal leaves two of those four Democrats to face off against each other.  Presumably, Daly still advances with the to face off against one of the Latino candidates.

The question of who wins the AD-69 election is: as the least liberal Democrat in the race, can Daly consolidate the Republican vote behind him?  If the Martinez-Perez-Barragan voters consolidate behind one candidate, they would presumably be the majority of the votes cast by Democrats.  However, if Daly can capture the Republicans, then he will win by combining the Republican vote with the portion of the Democrats’ votes he had in June.  In AD-69, Democrats make up 49.7% of registered voters, Republicans make up 27.5% of registered voters, and No Party Preference voters make up 19.1%.  By winning all the Republicans, half the NPP, and just 30% of Democrats, Daly can form a winning coalition in November.  However, if any of the others can make a play for the Republican vote, they could destabilize the Daly coalition and win themselves.  In a most unusual election, the Democrats in AD-69 may well try to position themselves as the conservative candidate in the Primary, in hopes of holding the Republican vote in November.  (We’ve already received e-mail messages this weekend at OC Political from some of the Dem AD-69 candidates touting their “non-partisan” or “bi-partisan” viewpoints.)

Bottom line for Republicans: the AD-69 race will eat up valuable human and financial resources for the Democrats in November, freeing up Republican resources to spent on other races.  Furthermore, the least liberal Democrat will likely be elected to represent the seat.

Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham is partly to thank for this event.  Pham’s bid for the 72nd Assembly District left his seat on the County Board vacant.  Republican Robert Hammond had been running for AD-69, heavily on education issues, including overturning SB 48 and enhancing career technical education programs.  Indeed, Hammond has been a teacher since he completed his service in the Marine Corps and earned his college degrees.  With the solidly conservative Pham vacating the OCBE’s Central Orange County seat, that left conservatives searching for a candidate to succeed Pham.

Conservatives quickly turned to one of the most passionate conservative education advocates in Central Orange County – Robert Hammond.  With Hammond’s deep knowledge of and passion for education issues, he is well-suited to be the conservative standard bearer for the Central OC seat on the OCBE.

Ordinarily, we’d run press releases under the “Newsletter Reprint” account, but this particular press release is central to an important piece of political news, so here is the press release from the Hammond campaign…

Robert Hammond Enters Orange County Board of Education Race

SANTA ANA, CA – At the urging of conservative activists and leaders across the county, Robert Morris Hammond has entered the race for Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 1.  The seat is being vacated by the incumbent, fellow conservative Republican Long Pham, who is now running for the 72nd Assembly District.

“Education has always been one of my great passions.  After completing my service in the United States Marine Corps and earning my college degrees, I became a teacher,” Hammond said.  “I’ve taught in special education, English Immersion classes, teacher training programs, and adult literacy courses.”

Hammond has long campaigned on education issues, emphasizing faith, family, and freedom.  He has also worked on efforts to overturn SB 48.  As an Orange County Board of Education member, Hammond will be able to fight the implementation of SB 48 in the schools overseen by the OCBE.  SB 48 and increasing career technical education had been two major issues that drove Hammond to run for office.

“It is with great reluctance that I withdraw from the 69th Assembly District race, but after Dr. Pham filed for the 72nd Assembly District on Thursday, numerous conservatives urged me to enter the race for Dr. Pham’s seat,” Hammond added.  “We were all concerned that Dr. Pham’s seat could fall into liberal hands, and with Trustee Area 1 covering much the same territory as AD-69, many concerned conservative citizens and leaders asked me to consider entering the race for the Orange County Board of Education, which I have now done.  I look forward to a vigorous campaign and victory in June.”

Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 1 covers Santa Ana, Tustin, Garden Grove (east of Beach Boulevard), and Fountain Valley (east of the 405 freeway).

(In the interest of full disclosure, Hammond is a Custom Campaigns client.)

Posted in 69th Assembly District, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , | 12 Comments »

Board of Supervisors: Two Crazy Races on the Docket

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2012

Todd Spitzer, Deborah Pauly, Janet Nguyen, and Steve Rocco

3rd District Candidates Todd Spitzer and Deborah Pauly, 1st District Supervisor Janet Nguyen, and 1st District Challenger Steve Rocco

I’m not sure which supervisorial race will be more entertaining this June: Todd Spitzer vs. Deborah Pauly or Janet Nguyen vs. Steve Rocco.  The Spitzer-Pauly race in the Third District will have some great fireworks, as Spitzer and Pauly are two of Orange County’s most aggressive campaigners while the Nguyen-Rocco race in the First District will simply be entertaining by virtue of Steve Rocco.

Third Supervisorial District

Incumbent Supervisor Bill Campbell is termed out after nearly ten years on the Board of Supervisors; he was elected in a 2003 special election (indeed, this was Orange County’s first-ever Supervisorial vacancy special election, as all previous vacancies had been filled by gubernatorial appointment) to replace Todd Spitzer who had vacated the seat to enter the State Assembly.

The candidates (as expected) are:

Former Assemblyman and former Third District Supervisor Todd Spitzer is running to for his old job.   Originally slated to battle former Assemblyman Chuck DeVore for the seat, DeVore moved to Texas late last year.  With DeVore out, Villa Park Councilwoman Deborah Pauly stepped into the race.  Fireworks have sparked every time these two candidates have met in debates throughout the Third District.  The mail should be fun to read.  Spitzer definitely has the cash advantage in this race, as I posted here.  For other coverage of the race, you can view the, um, rather, um slanted perspective that HBK provides.

First Supervisorial District

The candidates are:

After Kinde Durkee wiped out Democrat Assemblyman Jose Solorio and Democrat Senator Lou Correa’s warchests, Supervisor Janet Nguyen was left with a warchest that dwarfed those of Solorio and Correa combined.  Solorio and Correa would have had to spend an enormous sum to unseat Nguyen.

With the fact that most of his money was gone and that Assemblymembers don’t have a very good track record of unseating incumbent Supervisors (see Guy Houston or Audra Strickland), Solorio opted to avoid a losing battle with Nguyen.

Faced with the fact that most of his money was gone, Correa opted to wait.  He could be hoping that Nguyen will go for his Senate seat in 2014 when he’s termed out, which will free up the First Supervisorial District seat for a 2015 special election, much like Correa did when he vacated this Supervisorial seat in 2006 causing a 2007 Supervisorial special election that Nguyen won.

So now we’re left with, um, what’s the polite way to put it, um, colorful former Orange Unified School District Trustee Steve Rocco.  I could also call him convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco.  Perhaps, Rocco’s previous election opponents can form a bipartisan coalition to give Nguyen advice on beating Rocco (or at least on how to keep Rocco from stealing her condiments), though I suspect the advice will be along the lines of: don’t steal mustard:

  • OUSD Trustee Rick Ledesma (R), who defeated Rocco 72%-28% in November 2010
  • Former OC Public Administrator John Williams (R), who defeated Rocco 58%-11% in a four-way race in June 2010
  • Santa Ana City Councilman Carlos Bustamante (R), who defeated Rocco 50%-18% in a four-way race in November 2008
  • Rancho Santiago Community College District Trustee John Hanna (D), who defeated Rocco 74%-26% in November 2006 and 71%-29% in November 2002
  • Santa Ana Mayor Miguel Pulido (D), who defeated Rocco 71%-12% in a three-way race in November 2000

(Surprisingly, Rocco did not run for Governor in the 2003 recall.)

Don’t ask OC Park Ranger Phil Martinez, though, as he’s the one who lost 54%-46% to Rocco in the OUSD race in November 2004.

Will Rocco accuse Supervisor Nguyen of being part of “The Partnership” which Rocco previously claimed was the secret group ruling the United States?  Will Rocco accuse Supervisor Nguyen of trying to have him killed, similar to the accusation he leveled at “The Partnership,” Chapman University President Jim Doti, and Chapman Professor Fred Smoller?

Please read the Wikipedia article on Steve Rocco for your own entertainment.

(For the record, I am not related to Supervisor Nguyen. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

State Senate Races: Republican Senators Face Democrat Attorneys

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2012

29th Senate District and 37th Senate DistrictDue to redistricting, Orange County will be part of five Senate districts: the 29th, 32nd, 34th, 36th, and 37th.  While the 32nd, 34th, and 36th won’t be up until 2014, this year’s ballot will feature the 29th and 37th Senate District races.

SD-29

In SD-29, the candidates are:

  • Robert “Bob” Huff (R) – Lawmaker/Business Owner
  • Greg Diamond (D) – Workers’ Rights Attorney

Huff, a resident of LA County, is the current Senate Republican Leader.  Diamond is an Orange County attorney, who is also a blogger for Orange Juice and serves as a liaison for Occupy Orange County.

SD-29 includes North Orange County, southeastern Los Angeles County, and the City of Chino Hills in San Bernardino County.  The LA County portion of SD-29 consists of the whole cities of Diamond Bar, Rowland Heights, and Walnut, along with portions of the City of Industry and West Covina.  The OC portion of SD-29 consists of the whole cities of Brea, Cypress, Fullerton, La Habra, Placentia, Stanton, and Yorba Linda, along with portions of Anaheim and Buena Park.

SD-37

In SD-37, the candidates are:

Walters is Vice Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.  Young is an attorney, who ran against John Campbell for Congress three times.

SD-37 is entirely inside Orange County and consists of the whole cities of Costa Mesa, Irvine, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, Lake Forest, Newport Beach, Tustin, and Villa Park, along with Anaheim Hills and North Tustin, as well as portions of Anaheim (east of the 57 freeway), most of Orange (east of the 57 freeway), and half of Huntington Beach (south of Talbert Avenue and Seapoint Avenue).

Posted in 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , | 15 Comments »

AD-72: Five Candidates (Two Democrats, Three Republicans) Running

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2012

72nd Assembly DistrictIn AD-72, the withdrawal of Huntington Beach Councilman (and OC Political blogger) Matt Harper has shaken up the field.  That leaves millionaire Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar as the Republican front-runner.  Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham will gain most of the substantial Vietnamese Republican vote.  Huntington Beach Activist Travis Allen is the third Republican in the race, and judging by the two press releases we at OC Political received this morning (we’ll post those tomorrow), he will be running a Huntington Beach-centric campaign.  Huntington Beach is the second largest city in the district, behind only Garden Grove (while Huntington Beach as a whole is bigger than Garden Grove as a whole; most of Garden Grove is in AD-72 while only half of Huntington Beach is in AD-72).

The leading Democrat in the race is Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh. Dovinh’s wife is Garden Grove City Councilwoman Dina Nguyen.  (For the record, I am not related to either Nguyen or Dovinh [or Pham, for that matter]; Nguyen is an exceedingly common last name, encompassing 36% of Vietnamese people.)   The other Democrat in the race is 89-year-old Albert Ayala, who is actually a Tea Party Democrat.

To recap, the five candidates on the ballot (along with their parties, cities of residence, and ballot designations) are:

  • Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) – Businessman/Mayor
  • Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley) – Member, Orange County Board of Education
  • Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) – Small Business Owner
  • Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove) – City Commissioner/Businessperson
  • Albert Ayala (D-Garden Grove) – Retired Police Commander

Edgar is a multi-millionaire not averse to spending his own money for a campaign having loaned his previous Congressional campaign $400,000, and some close to Edgar have indicated he is prepared to spend $1 million to win the Assembly seat.  Pham is also an affluent candidate, having dropped $100,000 into his Assembly warchest (while most Assembly candidates who loan their campaigns $100,000 are bluffing, Pham is not, as he’s already started spending substantial portions of the $100,000).  Allen has informed OC Political that he has $90,000 in pledged support.  This is shaping up to be one expensive Republican primary.

Republicans consist of 42% of AD-72’s registered voters while Democrats sit at 31%.  22% of AD-72’s registered voters are No Party Preference while the remaining 5% are registered in third parties.

AD-72 consists of the entirety of Westminster, Fountain Valley, Los Alamitos, Seal Beach, Rossmoor, and Midway City, along with northern Huntington Beach (north of Ellis Avenue, Garfield Avenue, and Seapoint Street), most of Garden Grove (west of West Street), and a small portion of Santa Ana (west of the Santa Ana River [south of 1st Street] and west of Harbor Boulevard [north of 1st Street]).

Posted in 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , | 2 Comments »

OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario Comes True: Coups Benefit Republicans in AD-69 & AD-74

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2012

Due to Prop 14, instead of a traditional primary (where the top June Primary vote-getter from each party would advance to the November General Election), the top two candidates regardless of party would advance to November.  Before candidate filing opened, conservative Republicans feared that the 74th Assembly District would pit conservative Republican Assemblyman Allan Mansoor versus liberal Republican Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, with no Democrat in the race.  In that scenario, Daigle would grab part of the Republican vote along with nearly all the Democrats’ votes to edge out Mansoor.

Well, now, Orange County Democrats find themselves in their worse-case scenario, and Orange County Republicans are sitting pretty.

There’s a Democrat running in AD-74, and there’s no Republican in AD-69.

AD-74

The candidates in AD-74 are:

With Rush in the race, Daigle’s hopes of using Democratic votes to advance to November are dashed.  Rush will hold the Democratic vote, and Daigle will be forced to battle Mansoor in the June primary for the Republican vote.  Conservative Republican primary voters will pick Mansoor over Daigle, and the November general election will feature the Republicans’ Mansoor versus the Democrats’ Rush.  With a 13% Republican registration advantage, Mansoor will cruise to victory over Rush, instead of a costly general election between two Republicans.

(Mansoor, Daigle, and Rush have already qualified for the ballot while No Party Preference Candidate Paul Vann did not file for the seat.)

AD-69

The candidates in AD-69 are:

(Daly and Martinez have already qualified for the ballot. The Registrar is still examining the nomination paperwork submitted by Perez and Barragan. Republican Robert Hammond did not file for the seat.)

Democrats expected to settle their four-way primary battle between Daly, Martinez, Perez, and Barragan in June, with the winning Democrats likely in one of the first two positions, Republican Robert Hammond in one of the other top two positions, and the losing Democrats occupying spots 3-5.  This would then set up one Democrat versus Hammond, allowing Democrats to unify their money against Republicans in November.

However, with Hammond pulling out of the AD-69 race, that means the four Democrats will battle it out in the June primary and then the top two Democrats will battle it out again in the November general election.  Democrats will be spending their money clobbering each other in AD-69 in November in an expensive intraparty war that simultaneously costs Democrats resources they won’t be spending elsewhere in OC and California and frees up Republican resources to be spent elsewhere in OC and California.

Instead of Republicans spending money against Republicans in AD-74, it’s going to be Democrats spending money against Democrats in AD-69.

Stay tuned for an announcement from the Hammond campaign later today tomorrow…

(In the interest of full disclosure, Robert Hammond is a Custom Campaigns client.)

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Battle for Fullerton: The Field is Set

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2012

Fullerton City Council Meeting(UPDATED SUNDAY 3/11 7:40 PM with most of the missing ballot designations.)

I realize I promised a post before midnight; I hope you’ll forgive five minutes delay.

In the Fullerton recall, voters will decide whether or not to recall City Councilmen Don Bankhead, Dick Jones, and Pat McKinley.  Each man’s recall is technically a separate race.  (I explained the logistics of the election in this post, as some of you may have read.)  Since each recall is technically a separate race, candidates had to pick one seat to run for.  (The Elections Code prevents them from running for more than one of the three seats at a time.)

So here’s a look at the candidates…

Running for Bankhead’s seat:

  • Rick Alvarez (R) – Ballot Designation Not Yet Released by County Registrar or City Clerk Businessowner/Planning Commissioner
    A Fullerton Transportation & Circulation Commissioner, Alvarez originally pulled papers for all three seats.
  • Jane Rands (G) – Systems Engineer
    The Chair of the Fullerton Bicycle Users Subcommittee and Treasurer of the Green Party of Orange County, Rands originally pulled papers for all three seats.  She ran for the State Assembly in 2010.
  • Greg Sebourn (R) – Businessman/Educator
    The Chair of the Fullerton Citizen’s Infrastructure Review Commission and Assemblyman Chris Norby’s Alternate on the Republican Central Committee, Sebourn originally pulled papers for all three seats.  He ran for the City Council in 2010.
  • Paula Williams (D) – Public Employee
    Williams only pulled papers for this seat.

Running for Jones’s seat:

  • Dorothy A. Birsic (R) – Ballot Designation Not Yet Released by County Registrar or City Clerk
    Birsic only pulled papers for this seat.
  • Glenn P. Georgieff (D) – IT Specialist
    A former Fullerton Library Trustee, Georgieff only pulled papers this seat.
  • Matthew Hakim (D) – Ballot Designation Not Yet Released by County Registrar or City Clerk Musician, Artist
    Hakim only pulled papers for this seat.
  • Travis Kiger (R) – Fullerton Planning Commissioner
    A Fullerton Planning Commissioner and blogger at Friends for Fullerton’s Future, Kiger only pulled papers for this seat.
  • Roberta J. Reid (NPP) – Student
    Reid originally pulled papers for all three seats.

Running for McKinley’s seat:

  • Doug Chaffee (D) – Business Attorney
    A former Fullerton Planning Commissioner, Chaffee pulled papers for all three seats.  He ran for the City Council in 2010.
  • Barry Levinson (R) – Ballot Designation Not Yet Released by County Registrar or City Clerk Parks and Recreation Commissioner/Auditor
    A Fullerton Parks & Recreation Commissioner, Levinson pulled papers for all three seats. He ran for the City Council in 2010.
  • Sean Paden (R) – Ballot Designation Not Yet Released by County Registrar or City Clerk Construction Attorney
    Paden only pulled papers for this seat.
  • Matthew Rowe (NPP) – Aerospace Project Manager
    Rowe orignally pulled papers for all three seats.

Tune in to OC Political after 6:00 AM for the wackiness of Central Committee and the partisan offices.

(As you might note, I’ve played it straight, reporting just the facts on this post, rather than doing any analysis.  In the interest of full disclosure, I should note my day job is working in the Fullerton office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who served on the Fullerton City Council from 1984-2002.  One of my co-workers in the office is Fullerton City Councilman Bruce Whitaker, who was elected in 2010 and is not a target of the recall.)

Posted in Fullerton | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Wild Candidate Filing Night

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 9, 2012

So you might be wondering what happened in candidate filing…well, the last candidates left the Registrar’s office shortly before 8:30 PM in what most observers and even some Registrar employees called the strangest night in candidate filing they’ve ever seen.

We’ll be posting a little bit tonight and early tomorrow.  I’ll have a Fullerton update before midnight…

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

Matt Harper opts out of 72 AD race

Posted by Thomas Gordon on March 9, 2012

20120309-111027.jpg

Just received word that HB Councilmember Matthew Harper has decided not to run for the 72nd AD.

Mr Harper has endorsed Los Al Mayor Troy Edgar and announced that he would seek the 72nd AD seat in 2018.

Recently Westminster Councilmember Tyler Diep withdrew from the race.

Posted in 72nd Assembly District, Huntington Beach | Tagged: , , | 3 Comments »

Candidate Filing Closes Today; Stay Tuned for Updates

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 9, 2012

Here on OC Political, Fridays and Saturdays are usually light, but with candidate filing closing for most races today at 5 PM, check us out here at OC Political tonight and tomorrow for the final breakdowns of who’s in, who’s out, and what’s the deal in Orange County’s campaigns, ranging from Congress to State posts to County posts to the Fullerton recall to Central Committee.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

Pat Robertson wants you to smoke pot

Posted by Thomas Gordon on March 8, 2012

20120308-193729.jpg

Pat Robertson, founder of the 700 Club, has come out and declared the war on drugs a failure.

He went to say that he supports the legalization of marijuana with regulations. He also said he supports ballot measures like those in Colorado and Washington State that would allow those 21 years or older to possess small amounts of marijuana.

Marijuana advocates are seeking to legalize medical marijuana in Santa Ana as well

Does marijuana harm communities or is Pat Robertson right?

Posted in National | Tagged: , , | 2 Comments »

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