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Posts Tagged ‘Katherine Daigle’

Election Day in BOS-3: $1.2 Million+ in Spending Ends Today

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 12, 2019

Moments ago, the polls opened in the Third Supervisorial District, as voters decide who will fill the seat vacated by now-District Attorney Todd Spitzer for the remaining 22 months of his unexpired term.  In 51 weeks (i.e. 1 week short of a year), voters in the Third District will return to the polls for the primary election for the same seat for the next four-year term.

Ballots Received

While the polls close at 8 PM tonight, it is widely expected that vote-by-mail (absentee) ballots will comprise the overwhelming supermajority of the votes.  As of yesterday, 46,632 ballots had been received by the Registrar of Voters.  Of those, 5,466 arrived yesterday, and party breakdown on those ballots is not yet available.  Of the other 41,166 ballots that had arrived by Friday, 44.7% were from Republicans, 32.6% were from Democrats, 20.1% were from No Party Preference (NPP) voters, and the remaining 2.6% were from third party voters.

The 46,632 ballots received are 19.8% of the 236,026 vote-by-mail ballots issued by the Registrar.  That number will of course climb as more ballots arrive in the mail today at the Registrar’s office, additional vote-by-mail ballots are delivered directly to polling places, and still other vote-by-mail ballots are mailed today to arrive at the Registrar’s office by Friday’s receipt deadline under state law.

There are 341,809 registered voters in the Third District.  Those 46,632 vote-by-mail ballots received are 13.6% of registered voters, but of course that turnout number does not include any of the poll voters (myself included) who only began casting ballots moments ago nor does it include the various vote-by-mail ballots not yet received that I described above.

Campaign Spending

Over $1.2 million was spent in this election between the candidates, political parties, and independent expenditures, with over $500,000 in support of Loretta Sanchez (D), over $400,000 in support of Don Wagner (R), and over $100,000 in support of Kris Murray (R).  Additionally, more than $63,000 was spent attacking Wagner by the Orange County Employees Association, the County’s largest labor union, and over $54,000 was spent attacking Murray by multimillionaire Howard F. Ahmanson and his Fieldstead & Company.

Deborah Pauly (R) spent just over $10,000, and the other three candidates (Republicans Larry Bales, Kim-Thy “Katie” Bayliss, and Katherine Daigle) spent nothing.  There were no independent expenditures for or against Pauly, Bales, Bayliss, or Daigle.  Bayliss and Daigle’s campaigns seem to only exist on the ballot and in cyberspace, as neither candidate has spent any money, appeared at any candidate forums, or submitted a candidate statement for the sample ballot.

The campaign finance reports for the IEs are largely complete, but those for the candidates are only complete through February 23.  After February 23, the only information we have from the candidates are regarding contributions received totaling $1,000 or more.

Here’s the campaign finance chart for the candidate’s campaigns:

Candidate Contributions
Through 2/23
Loans Unpaid
Bills
Expenditures Cash on Hand
(COH)
COH
Minus
Unpaid Bills
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
and Loans
Through 2/23
$1,000+
Contributions
After 2/23
Don Wagner (R) $187,760 $100,000 $120,366 $232,279 $184,747 $64,381 ($35,619) $54,000
Loretta Sanchez (D) $193,846 $100,000 $0 $138,321 $256,652 $256,652 $156,652 $25,900
Kris Murray (R) $50,512 $52,000 $1,150 $97,797 $49,974 $48,824 ($3,176) $18,000
Deborah Pauly (R) $6,275 $10,500 $0 $10,269 $6,506 $6,506 ($3,994) $0
Katie Bayliss (R) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Katherine Daigle (R) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Larry Bales (R) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

Here’s the chart of the independent expenditures (excluding spending by the Democratic Party of Orange County and the Republican Party of Orange County):

Independent Expenditure Pro-Sanchez Pro-Wagner Anti-Wagner Pro-Murray Anti-Murray
Orange County Employees Association $243,770 $0 $63,418 $0 $0
Orange County Attorneys Association $99,605 $0 $0 $0 $0
Engage OC $0 $55,300 $0 $0 $0
Howard F. Ahmanson / Fieldstead & Company $0 $0 $0 $0 $54,497
California Women’s Leadership Association $0 $0 $0 $31,037 $0

My father received an IE mailer from the Orange County Professional Firefighters Association, but I have been unable to find an IE report from the firefighters union on either the County Registrar of Voters’s web site or the Secretary of State’s web site.

Here are the member communications from the respective political parties:

  • Republican Party of Orange County: $133,317 (supporting Wagner and opposing Sanchez)
  • Democratic Party of Orange County: $45,122 (supporting Sanchez and opposing Wagner)

What That Spending Looked Like to Voters

Here’s a glimpse of what all that campaign activity looked like to two different houses in the Third District: my parents’ house and my house.

Phones

My parents received 6 phone calls from either Don Wagner’s campaign or the Republican Party of Orange County in support of Wagner.  My NPP father also received a robocall from Deborah Pauly that emphasized her support of Donald Trump.

Mail

My parents were kind enough to let me have all their mail from the special election, so the first picture is what it looked like when I spread all of their special election mail on my living room floor, and the second picture is all of my special election mail spread out on the same portion of my living room floor:

My Republican mother and NPP father received 32 pieces of mail for this special election from candidates and independent expenditures

I received 14 pieces of mail for this special election from candidates and independent expenditures

Comparing my mail as a Republican voter with the mail sent to my Republican mother (or to both my parents) finds fairly similar compositions.  The radical difference is the mail sent to my NPP father.  He received more pro-Sanchez mail than my mother or I received from all sides in this election.  While all pro-Sanchez forces pushed hard for my father’s vote, OCEA pushed the hardest, producing the majority of all the pro-Sanchez mail my father received.

None of the candidates’ campaigns directly attacked their opponents in the mail, with all the attacks either coordinated through the political parties or done separately by independent expenditures.

As an NPP voter, my father was rather annoyed at how the majority of the pieces addressed to him were overtly partisan.  Of the 28 pieces of mail addressed to either my father alone or to my father with my mother, a full 16 pieces praised the political party endorsements of the candidates: 9 pieces touting Sanchez’s Democratic Party endorsement and 7 pieces touting Wagner’s Republican Party endorsement.

For those of you who care about the details, here’s the breakdown of the mail in two Nguyen households…

The 14 pieces of mail I received at my home consisted of 5 pro-Wagner pieces, 2 more pieces supporting Wagner and opposing Sanchez, 1 pro-Sanchez piece, 3 pro-Murray pieces, and 3 anti-Murray pieces.  They were:

  • 3 pieces from Wagner’s campaign
  • 3 pieces from Murray’s campaign
  • 3 anti-Murray IEs from Howard F. Ahmanson/Fieldstead & Company
  • 4 member communications from the Republican Party of Orange County
    • 2 pro-Wagner
    • 2 pro-Wagner/anti-Sanchez
  • 1 pro-Sanchez IE from the Orange County Attorneys Association

Of the 32 pieces of mail my parents received at their house, 19 were addressed to my NPP father, 4 to my Republican mother, and 9 to both of them.

The 19 pieces of mail addressed solely to my NPP father consisted of 13 pro-Sanchez pieces, 2 pieces supporting Sanchez and attacking Wagner, 3 anti-Wagner pieces, and 1 anti-Murray piece.  They were:

  • 3 pieces from Sanchez’s campaign (2 in English, 1 in Vietnamese)
  • 11 IEs from the Orange County Employees Association
    • 6 pro-Sanchez
    • 3 anti-Wagner
    • 2 pro-Sanchez/anti-Wagner
  • 3 pro-Sanchez IEs from the Orange County Attorneys Association
  • 1 pro-Sanchez IE from the Orange County Professional Firefighters Association
  • 1 anti-Murray IE from Howard F. Ahmanson/Fieldstead & Company

The 9 pieces addressed to both my parents consisted of 5 pro-Wagner pieces, 2 pieces supporting Wagner and attacking Sanchez, and 2 pro-Sanchez pieces.  They were:

  • 3 pieces from Wagner’s campaign
  • 4 member communications from the Republican Party of Orange County
    • 2 pro-Wagner
    • 2 pro-Wagner/anti-Sanchez
  • 1 piece from Sanchez’s campaign
  • 1 pro-Sanchez IE from the Orange County Attorneys Association

The 4 pieces addressed to my Republican mother consisted of 3 pro-Murray pieces and 1 anti-Murray piece.  They were:

  • 1 piece from Murray’s campaign
  • 2 pro-Murray IEs from the California Women’s Leadership Association
  • 1 anti-Murray IE from Howard F. Ahmanson/Fieldstead & Company

Results

The polls close at 8:00 PM, and the first results will be released online at 8:05 PM by the Registrar of Voters.  Those 8:05 PM results will consist of the vote-by-mail ballots already received by the Registrar.

When the count is completed (which will likely be next week) and certified, whoever gets the plurality of the votes will be sworn in as Supervisor two weeks from today, on Tuesday, March 26.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Live from the 3rd Supervisorial District Candidate Forum

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 15, 2019

Foothill Communities Association and League of Women Voters

We are live from Third Supervisorial District Special Election candidate forum, sponsored by the Foothill Communities Association, moderated by the League of Women Voters. Five of the seven candidates are present at this forum. (This is the second forum for front-runners Don Wagner, Loretta Sanchez, and Kris Murray who appeared at a January 31 forum sponsored by the Orange County Public Affairs Association.)

The candidates (and their ballot designations) present are:

Absent are:

Coincidentally, neither Daigle nor Bayliss submitted a candidate’s statement for the sample ballot mailed to all voters, though Bayliss did submit a candidate’s statement for the online sample ballot.

Although their partisan affiliations are not listed on the March 12 ballot since County Supervisor is a nonpartisan office, Sanchez is a Democrat and the other six candidates are all Republicans. Sanchez is endorsed by the Democratic Party of Orange County while Wagner is endorsed by the Republican Party of Orange County.

The candidates are seated in the following randomly selected order: Pauly, Sanchez, Wagner, Murray, and Bales.

After welcomes and introductions by the FCA and LWV, opening statements begin at 7:15 PM.

Deborah Pauly thanks attendees and organizers. She has been active in the community since moving to OC in July 1999. She served in the Air Force in public affairs. She has lived all over the US and around the world due to her service, which made her value the US more. She notes each part of the district has different needs. She says she is available, responsive, and action oriented. She served two terms on the City Council.

Loretta Sanchez thanks the organizers, attendees, and opponents. She attended public school and then Chapman University, received various scholarships, and joked that she is a public-private partnership. She served in Congress representing OC for 20 years. She notes her effectiveness in bringing transportation funding, water funding, and education funding back to OC. She notes she is the only one on stage who voted for the Affordable Care Act. She has raised funds for local nonprofits.

Don Wagner thanks the attendees and organizers. He notes he is the only one of the seven candidates who has represented the unincorporated North Tustin area (the area represented by the forum organizers). He notes that he carried legislation drawn from the district. He was the Republican who passed the most bills of any Republican in the Democrat-controlled Legislature.

Kris Murray speaks of being a mother. She was on the City Council and Mayor Pro Tem. She points to various accomplishments, including on homelessness, Taxpayer Protection Act, and stopping mobile needle exchange. She is supported by two of the oldest neighborhood associations. because of her accessibility.

Larry Bales is the descendant of military veterans back to the Revolutionary War. He worked in the County. He claims credit for getting 45 political corruption convictions, including that of Congressman Andrew J. Hinshaw. He claims credit for empowering Howard Jarvis to pass Proposition 13. He claims credit for turning in Assessor Webster Guilliry for election crimes.

Moderator asks what are the most important issues in OC?

Sanchez speaks of fire suppression and helping evacuate her mother. She is endorsed by the fire union. She says mental health is another major issue. She points out that mental health emergencies are clogging emergency rooms for everyone else.

Wagner points to homelessness. He says many solutions are required, not one-size-fits-all. He says his city has reduced the homeless population, pointing to the point-in-time homeless count. He begins to address public safety but runs out of time.

Murray points to open space expressing opposition to development of unincorporated areas. She improved police response times in Anaheim and would like to do the same for County Sheriff’s Deputies and the Fire Authority. She points to her boots on the ground record reducing homelessness on the riverbed.

Bales wants to protect property values. He opposes special interests and dark money. He has few specifics and ends early.

Pauly cites undeveloped County-owned land. She suggests voters examine campaign finance reports. She says only she stands for the people first. Pauly opposes “the invasion of illegal immigrants.” She points to eradicated diseases coming back, due to illegal immigration.

Moderator asks about ensuring neighborhood preservation.

Wagner says as Mayor that he will seek community input to preserve community character. He points to his blocking a developer’s project in Irvine to preserve the specific plan. He notes homeowners should get what they bought in community character.

Murray says she will adhere and enforce specific plans. She points to successfully fighting slumlords in Anaheim. She notes the importance of property values and community safety.

Bales says avoid special interest money. He then speaks about the veterans cemetery.

Pauly blasts developers for “not having skin in the game.” She says they care only about making money. She will fight against high density and low-income housing.

Sanchez notes she grew up in OC and loves its nature. She says developer money is flowing to the two candidates to the right of her (Wagner and Murray).

Moderator asks about the California Disclose Act.

Murray says she led efforts for transparency in Anaheim, including lobbyist registration. She wants to help bring greater transparency to the County. She has hundreds of donations from individual people. She says she offers her cell phone number to be accessible.

Bales blasts Disney’s spending in Anaheim elections and the Disneyland parking structure. He blasts Irvine developer spending.

Pauly says she has a record of fighting for transparency. She would prefer to receive small donations, rather than large donations. She got Council meetings online when she was on the Council.

Sanchez tried to pass the federal version of the Disclose Act. She points to the example of the information box on credit card bills that she says is nicknamed the Sanchez Box. She says credit card companies spent $3 million against her.

Wagner noted Irvine just increased its Sunshine Ordinance. He notes Democrats in Sacramento have failed to pass the Disclose Act, so Sanchez should explain why they haven’t done so. He points to development projects he opposed, including those from Five Points and Irvine Company. He says he has approved no apartments, blasting an accusation that he approved 10,000 apartments.

Moderator asks about keeping the County budget balanced.

Bales speaks of pespecial interest spending in Washington.

Pauly wants to reduce spending and oppose special interest spending. She says she will rely on subject matter experts from outside government. She wants to reduce fees, fines, and licenses, but she does support cost-recovery. She will not spend more than the County takes in and says there is plenty of money in the County budget.

Sanchez says property money goes up to Sacramento and most counties get 17 percent back while Orange County gets 5 percent back. She says she will go to both Sacramento and Washington to get more money.

Wagner says it is ludicrous that changing the partisan composition of the Board will suddenly result in more money for Orange County. He note his fiscal management record at both South Orange County Community College District and Irvine. He supports Prop 13.

Murray wants zero-based budgeting. She wants to attract more employers to grow the economic pie. She notes Anaheim has 50% of its revenue from private investment. She says the Anaheim Ducks are now taking over ARTIC expenses in a deal she helped strike near the end of her Council term.

Moderator asks if the candidates represent the changing demographics of the district.

Pauly says she looks like the room. She says high taxes and fees are driving young people out due to the cost of living. She says seniors face the same challenges.

Sanchez has lived in OC for 55 years. She played in orange groves. She says the County is much more urban and diverse now. She says she knew what OC was and what it now is. She wants to be a bridge to new residents who have new needs on healthcare and education.

Wagner says OC is changing. He embraces it and notes Irvine is extraordinarily diverse. He says his City can boast of its safety and fiscal responsibility. 75+ languages are spoken in Irvine schools. Safe schools, safe neighborhoods, and good jobs are all things people seek, and there is strength in diversity.

Murray says OC is changing. She says diversity is a great strength. She loves OC’s history. She has no sidewalks and streetlights in her neighborhood and wants to protect communities and keep them intact. She speaks of Anaheim’s history as OC’s oldest city.

Bales has lived in OC for 40 years and hates the traffic. He wants to curtail new construction. He blasts the gas tax.

Moderator asks about each person’s biggest policy mistake.

Sanchez says, “Wow” and pauses for a time. Eventually she cites getting funding for high speed rail, which she notes didn’t get done.

Wagner says it’s a tough question but he regrets supporting people who weren’t up to policy challenges. He says some people have disappointed him either in their votes or their personal scandals.

Murray says she trusted staff too much and should have pushed back more when she started on the Council. She says she will stand up for residents for public safety, on the economy, and on homelessness. She regrets contracting out park maintenance, though she has since fixed that.

Bales talks about tech companies being special interests in Washington. (There is snickering in the audience as it repeatedly becomes clear that Bales doesn’t understand most of the questions.)

Pauly cites Murray and says Pauly should have trusted her gut and common sense against City staff. Pauly says Sanchez’s vote on ACA and Wagner’s votes on cemeteries are their failures. The moderator cuts Pauly off.

Moderator asks about the new joint powers authority (JPA) on homelessness.

Wagner warns of JPAs being subject to state pressure, pointing to Sanchez’s union allies. He speaks of various homeless solutions, including shelter beds and mental health programs.

Murray says the JPA was set up by cities to ensure there is funding for local communities for homelessness. She says this will come from local communities up to the JPA, not top down from the State or the JPA.

Bales says homeless shelters should be selectively placed. He wants basketball court-style sheltering.

Pauly opposed the JPA as expanding government. She says homelessness has been hardened. She blamed electeds officials for not taking care of homelessness sooner and now permanent homeless shelters are being imposed on communities. She calls for temporary shelters, like “tent cities.”

Sanchez says it is sad that a federal judge had to intervene. She blasts Anaheim for letting homelessness grow for 2 years. She blasts the proposal to place a homeless shelter at a school in the canyons. she speaks of the need for mental health programs and wraparound services.

Moderator asks about rising hate crimes.

Murray calls hate crimes a tragedy, pointing to faith, lifestyle, and culture. she says she is being attacked by Howard Ahmanson who she says funds hate groups. She says she stands with all diverse communities.

Bales speaks of opposing prejudice and being friends with people of all races.

Pauly speaks of the First Amendment, protecting free speech and freedom of religion. She says the Human Relations Commission is keeping itself busy. She says there are professional victims. She says certain groups are a threat, but scream hate to defend themselves.

Sanchez has been attacked for being a woman, poor, Latina, Christian, and even a Democrat. She says it is important to stand for all people. She calls for increased funding for the Human Relations Commission.

Wagner says the Human Relations Commission fights “yahoos” in the community. He speaks of helping to defend a vandalized synagogue by offering a reward for the “yahoo” who attacked it, and he worked with Christian and Muslim leaders on this.

Moderator asks about making toll roads more profitable.

Bales says developers want toll roads to access their land.

Pauly says transportation, and particularly roads, are a basic function of government. She says the toll roads are empty while freeways are jam packed. She says the toll roads are not profitable and should be free.

Sanchez notes the 73 is not profitable and the 241 barely breaks even. She points to the toll roads pouring on to high-traffic roads. She says there needs to be bigger picture planning.

Wagner cites Sanchez’s arguments and calls for comprehensive solutions for getting people across the county in both emergency and day-to-day situations.

Murray says the toll roads are critical redundancy and will be free once the bonds are paid off. She supports the 91/241 toll road connector which will help organically reduce traffic. She says that the 5 and 57 cannot be further widened.

Moderator asks for residency.

Pauly: Orange

Sanchez: Orange

Wagner: North Irvine

Murray: Anaheim Hills

Bales: Tustin

Moderator asks what drives choices of support, proposals, and votes.

Pauly says there are problems we may not anticipate. She reads all material. She asks staff questions. She does further research. She goes to her outside experts. She emails constituents.

Sanchez seeks out experts. She notes her endorsement by Jim Doti because she always sought Chapman’s expertise. She trusts her gut.

Wagner says it is important to do homework and seek expertise but then run it through principles. He founded the OC chapter of the Federalist Society. He always seeks to increase liberty.

Murray says she is not a politician, but a public servant. She hosted town halls as a Councilwoman to get community input. She works hard and rolls up her sleeves. She seeks long term benefit for the people she serves.

Bales says honesty is his top priority and seeks to make the best decision possible. He wants to represent people not special interests. He says Prop 13 emerged from his work.

Closing statements begin.

Bales says he will represent the people. He believes in honesty and integrity. He has been retaliated against as a whistleblower.

Murray thanks the organizers and attendees. She wants to serve the people, work hard, and be accessible. Her cell phone is on her campaign web site. She cares about results, not rhetoric. She has not attacked any other candidate.

Wagner thanks the organizers and attendees. He came to OC in 1991 and loves this community. The people, not the government, built the community. He will help preserve it. He has the experience to serve this community.

Sanchez will protect the Third District. She will protect public safety and the homeless, both mentally I’ll and opioid-addicted. She notes she brought money back to OC as a Democrat in a Republican controlled Congress. She loves OC as her home and her family’s home.

Pauly speaks of people informing her. She says she is a fighter and scrapper. She says she will be the first line of defense for the people. She says she is the only candidate who put her cell phone and email address in the sample ballot.

The forum concludes at 8:35 PM.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

3rd District Supervisor Candidate Forum on Friday with All 7 Candidates

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on February 13, 2019

The Foothill Communities Association has organized a candidate forum for the Third District Supervisor Special Election, with moderators from the League of Women Voters.  The forum is scheduled for Friday evening and is the first (and probably only) time all seven candidates will be at the same forum.  It will be the second forum for front-runners Don Wagner, Loretta Sanchez, and Kris Murray who appeared at a January 31 forum sponsored by the Orange County Public Affairs Association.

Here is the release from FCA and LWV:

Foothill Communities Association and League of Women Voters

Candidates Forum for Third District Supervisor

The seven candidates running to be the next Third District Supervisor in Orange County will participate in a forum to discuss their qualifications and policies. The candidates will also take questions from the audience. This is likely the only opportunity that Third District residents will have to compare all the candidates and have them address their individual specific concerns.

Date and time: Friday, February 15, 2019 at 7pm

Location: Trinity Presbyterian Church (Fellowship Hall)
13922 Prospect Ave, Santa Ana, CA 92705
(corner of Prospect Ave. and 17th St.)

The special election will be on March 12, 2019.

The Third District includes all or parts of Anaheim, Irvine, Orange, Yorba Linda, El Modena, North Tustin, Orange Park Acres, and the Canyon Communities.

The event is organized by the Foothill Communities Association and will be moderated by The League of Women Voters. Both organizations are nonprofit entities and are politically impartial. Neither will endorse candidates.

Check www.FCAhome.org for more details.

Note: the last day to register to vote for this election is February 25, 2019.

For further information contact Richard Nelson
(714) 730-7810 rnelson@FCAhome.org

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

BOS-3: Seven Candidates Qualify for Special Election Ballot

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 29, 2019

The field is set, with seven candidates officially qualified for the ballot for the March 12 special election to fill the Third Supervisorial District seat, left vacant when Supervisor Todd Spitzer (R-Orange) was elected District Attorney of Orange County.

Special Election Candidates for the Third Supervisorial District (l-r): Don Wagner, Loretta Sanchez, Kris Murray, Deborah Pauly, Katherine Daigle, Larry Bales, Katie Bayliss

There are 5 women and 2 men: Wagner and Bales.  There are 6 Republicans and 1 Democrat: Sanchez. (It should be noted that Supervisor is a nonpartisan race, so party affiliation does not appear on the ballot, and it’s up to the candidates, political parties, and independent expenditures to inform – or misinform – the voters about the party affiliations.)  Their names are listed below as they will appear on the ballot along their ballot designations, followed by the narrative of their electoral history and representation of portions of the Third District:

  • Donald P. Wagner (R-Irvine)
    Mayor of Irvine

    Elected Mayor in 2016 and re-elected in 2018, he is the only current elected official running for Supervisor.  He presumably has the highest name ID, having represented nearly the entire district in the State Assembly (2010-2016) and the southern half of the district on the South Orange County Community College District Board.  He was the Assemblyman, the Mayor, or both for 85% of the Third Supervisorial District.
  • Loretta Sanchez (D-Orange)
    Educator/Small Businesswoman
    The 20-year Congresswoman (1997-2017) made an ill-fated bid for the United States Senate in 2016, when she was defeated by Kamala Harris in the general election.  She was the Congresswoman for 12% of the Third Supervisorial District.  That 12% overlapped Wagner’s Assembly District.
  • Kristine “Kris” Murray (R-Anaheim)
    Orange County Business Owner
    The former Anaheim Councilwoman (2010-2018) termed out of office two months ago.  She was a Councilwoman for 12% of the Third Supervisorial District.  That 12% overlapped Wagner’s Assembly District.
  • Deborah Pauly (R-Orange)
    Businesswoman
    Seeking higher office for the third time, the former two-term Villa Park Councilwoman (2006-2014) was defeated for Assembly in 2016 and Supervisor in 2012.   She was a Councilwoman for 1% of the Third Supervisorial District.  Her city of Villa Park was entirely in Wagner’s Assembly District, though she now resides in Orange, which is also in Wagner’s Assembly District.
  • Katherine Daigle (R-Irvine)
    Small Business Owner
    A perennial candidate, she made 6 failed bids for elected office: twice for State Assembly (2016 and 2018) and four times for Mayor of Irvine (2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018).  She is also the only candidate in the entire field dumb enough to not get a ballot statement.
  • Larry Bales (R-Tustin)
    Retired
    Seeking County office for the seventh time (or eighth time, depending on how you count it), he is another perennial candidate, with 6 unsuccessful candidacies for County office and 1 failed attempt at an appointment to County office.  He ran for Orange County Recorder in 1986 (before the office was merged with the County Clerk).  He ran for Orange County Assessor in 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006.  He sought the appointment to fill the vacancy for Orange County Clerk-Recorder in 2013.
  • Kim-Thy “Katie” Hoang Bayliss (R-Tustin)
    Attorney/Businessowner/Mother
    She is the only candidate in the entire field who has never run for office before.  Awkwardly, she had formerly interned for one of her opponents in this race: Loretta Sanchez.  Bayliss has been registered to vote in Tustin (in the Third District) since December 2018 after having previously been registered to vote in Ladera Ranch (in the Fifth District).  Her husband was still registered to vote in Ladera Ranch as of January 7.

This group of candidates has lost 18 elections combined: 12 of those losses belong to Daigle and Bales.

While Bales is 76 and Bayliss turns 39 just two days before the election, the rest of the candidates are remarkably close in age, as Sanchez, Pauly, and Daigle are all 59, Wagner is 58, and Murray is 51.

Yorba Linda is the unknown neutral zone in the Third Supervisorial District, as none of the seven candidates have ever been elected to anything representing Yorba Linda nor do any of the seven live there.

Below are the ballot statements of each candidate.  I would not be surprised if some of these change, as there are certainly portions that could be challenged in court in some of these ballot statements.

Wagner:

Mayor Don Wagner has a history of getting the job done while being a good steward of taxpayer dollars. He understands how hard we work for every dollar, and he is committed to delivering the best county services at the lowest price.

Don is tough on crime. In the legislature he opposed reducing penalties for sex offenders who prey on children. As Supervisor, he’ll increase funding for law enforcement to help people in high crime areas take back their communities.

Don has a plan to solve the homeless crisis. He’ll make sure our veterans, women, and children never spend a night outside. His plan also provides compassionate treatment options for addicts and the mentally ill.

Don is fiscally responsible. During six years as President of the South Orange County Community College District he balanced every budget and paid off all debt, without raising taxes.

Don is committed to increasing our quality of life. As Irvine Mayor, he enacted a traffic plan to reduce gridlock, improved our park system, and accelerated build out of the Orange County Great Park.

Don’s reasoned, collaborative approach to problem solving is why every mayor in the district supports him. Your vote helps Don Wagner continue working for us.

Don Wagner

www.ElectDonWagner.com

Sanchez:

With over 30 years of government service, infrastructure development, and business expertise, I am highly experienced as a qualified candidate for the Orange County Board of Supervisors, District 3.

I have made Orange County my home for over 55 years and represented us in Congress for 20 years. I graduated from Katella High School, Chapman University (BA, Economics), and American University (MBA).

Named one of the “25 Most Influential Women of Congress” in 2015, I secured billions of federal dollars to widen our freeways, develop our world-class water recycling system, protect our environment, improve healthcare services, and fund research at UCI, Chapman, and Cal State Fullerton. I know how to get more of our tax dollars back to Orange County. As Supervisor, I will continue to work with local, state, and federal officials to make our schools stronger, our streets safer, and housing more affordable.

Since retiring from Congress in 2017, I have been working on solutions to homelessness, raising private funds for a homeless women’s shelter, mentoring candidates for public office, and consulting on business development issues.

I’m running for Supervisor because I have dedicated my life to making Orange County a wonderful place to live and work. Working together, we can achieve our priorities and move Orange County forward.

Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez (retired)

www.sanchezforocsupervisor.com

Murray (the only candidate to list her age in her ballot statement):

AGE: 51

I am running for Orange County Supervisor, with more than two decades of public service to Orange County, where the needs of residents, local businesses and taxpayers always come first.

As Mayor Pro Tem and City Councilwoman: I decreased 911 response times by increasing sworn personnel, neighborhood patrols and firefighting resources, reduced traffic by improving infrastructure, and opened Orange County’s first full-service homeless shelter away from schools and homes while eliminating homeless tent cities/encampments.

As a champion of fiscal responsibility: I balanced city budgets, lowered taxes, doubled cash reserves, authored the Taxpayer Protection Act, defended homeowners’ Prop. 13 protections and kept city and utility fees low, all while expanding transparency at City Hall.

On the economic front: I led efforts to grow thousands of local, high-paying jobs and keep world-champion Angels Baseball and Anaheim Ducks in Orange County.

As Orange County Supervisor, I will immediately get to work to reduce crime and improve wildfire protection, provide significant resources to address homelessness, support traffic-reducing measures and vigorously protect open space, trails and parks.

I’m the candidate endorsed by Orange County Business Council, California Women’s Leadership Association, our local Chamber of Commerce, as well as public safety and community leaders.

I humbly ask for your vote to serve you as Orange County Supervisor and to put our community first.

www.ElectKrisMurray.com

Pauly (the only candidate to purchase a 400-word ballot statement):

I’m running to give voters an independent option as their voice on the Board of Supervisors. Elected officials who are beholden to special interest groups, at either extreme of the political spectrum, do not make decisions furthering the greater good. I am obligated only to the citizens and US Constitution, which I vow to uphold.

I served active duty in the US Air Force in public affairs, where patriotism and civic duty merged into understanding how policy decisions today impact our communities tomorrow.

As a former city councilwoman, I’ve proven myself able and reliable. Local control and protecting the uniqueness in our District are paramount. Therefore, in the following, I support:

Anaheim – directing County traffic engineers to improve traffic flow and relieve bottlenecks. I will demand better fire coordination, improved resources and better planning so we don’t repeat the October 2017 Canyon 2 Fire.

Orange – recognizing the special communities that encompass this great city. From Old Town to Orange Park Acres and myriad barrios in between, diversity is a great part of Orange’s charm worth protecting.

North Tustin – respecting and defending the intent of the Foothill Trabuco Specific Plan, which is the foundation ensuring the special quality of life in our largest unincorporated area.

Irvine and Tustin – resisting future efforts to build overly dense housing on County-owned property. I will block placing homeless shelters near schools or parks.

Yorba Linda – ensuring this gracious city never relives anything like the 2008 Freeway Complex Fire. I will demand any future development on County-zoned property includes a net benefit to existing residents by providing traffic relief, additional fire infrastructure and fire breaks.

Villa Park and Yorba Linda – soliciting their input, as contract cities, prior to approving OC Sheriff’s contracts which heavily impact their budgets.

Irvine Lake – it is an outrage that this recreational jewel has been closed to the public due to infighting. I will bring the parties together to reopen this asset for the community’s enjoyment.

Finally, I support a Veterans’ Cemetery in our District.

Accessibility has always been a hallmark of my public service. I genuinely enjoy hearing from constituents, getting to know them and understanding what concerns them. I have lived in the 3rd District for two decades. The best ideas come from voters. Together, we can Make Orange County Great, Again!

I humbly ask for your vote. I consider it a sacred trust. DeborahPauly@gmail.com (714) 394-8400

Daigle:

(No ballot statement)

Bales:

I am a Viet Nam Veteran; my family has served in every United States conflict including the Revolutionary War of Independence.

While working for the County of Orange, I exposed political corruption and unfair treatment of taxpayers that eventually resulted in 45 indictments and 45 convictions of corrupted elected officials. Among them, a Congressman, the first one to be removed from Congress since the Civil War. My efforts, in stopping unfair and illegal property tax practices, directly contributed to the passage of Proposition 13. I support Prop 13.

I am against the “split roll” property tax being proposed. It will raise your taxes. Our commercial and industrial business community already suffers from unfair competition and are either moving out of state or going out of business. Lost jobs.

I continue to be concerned about our election process and in 2016 exposed and brought forward election fraud charges against your former Assessor Webster Guillory, resulting in 5 election felony charges.

I have not and will not accept Special Interest money or untraceable Dark Money from Special Interest.

Special Interest and Dark Money corrupts your representation to the point where, “We the people,” no longer exists.

I support legal immigration and election laws.

Bayliss:

Having someone who represents your values on the Board is critical. I know my decisions as Supervisor will impact real people of Orange County and I take this responsibility seriously.

I believe money belongs to the people who earn it. If you produce it, you should keep more of it. That’s why I oppose higher taxes. I know putting money back into the hands of people who buy goods and create jobs stimulates economic growth.

I believe in the free market where low prices are a result of fair and open competition. As an attorney and Supervisor, I will be open to receiving bids and reviewing them diligently to find the best prices and options.

I will get involved and not look at an issue from the outside. To better understand homelessness, I personally surveyed the homeless population to better assess their needs and gain an inside perspective on how funds should be allocated.

I believe in a fiscally responsible government. With my financial industry experience, I will work to keep the County debt down and ensure our budget is balanced.

I believe in protecting our children with communities of low crime, excellent schools, and clean parks.

Visit me at voteforkatiebayliss.com.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Democrats Cast More OC Primary Election Votes Than Republicans for First Time Ever

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 8, 2016

Republican Presidential Nominee
Donald Trump

This is cross-posted to OC Daily.

In numbers that should scare Republicans across Orange County (and probably California, and maybe the United States), for the first time ever, more Orange County Democrats cast primary election ballots than Orange County Republicans did. Even in 2012, when Mitt Romney had sewn up the presidential nomination, more Republicans cast primary election votes than did in 2016. Even in the 2008 battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Democrats could not surpass Republicans in primary election ballots cast.

Party 2008 2012 2016
Democrat 317,859 (67.8%) 139,316 (27.5%) 231,638 (49.5%)
Republican 373,587 (52.2%) 234,396 (34.5%) 205,988 (36.9%)

The 2012 general election was a bloodbath for Republicans:

  • Democrats captured 2 Assembly seats from Republicans.
  • Democrats captured 3 Senate seats from Republicans.
  • Romney beat Obama by just 6.3% in Orange County.

Gerrymandered districts likely saved Republicans in 2008.  The 2016 elections will be conducted under the same district lines that were first contested in 2012.

2016 threatens to be worse than 2012.  Nowhere in Orange County is that more evident than in AD-65.  Here is how Assemblyman Chris Norby did against challenger Mayor Sharon Quirk-Silva in the 2012 primary:

Vote Count Percentage
CHRIS NORBY (REP) 29,917 58.8%
SHARON QUIRK-SILVA (DEM) 20,936 41.2%

Here is how Assemblywoman Young Kim did against challenger ex-Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva last night:

Vote Count Percentage
SHARON QUIRK-SILVA (DEM) 28,840 53.0%
YOUNG KIM (REP) 25,575 47.0%

Norby led Quirk-Silva by 17.6% in the 2012 primary before losing to her in the general election by a 52%-48% margin.  Kim is behind in the 2016 primary by an even larger margin than Norby lost in the 2012 general.  Republicans will need to marshal massive financial and human resources in order to save the AD-65 seat.

Things look even bleaker in a swing seat that neighbors Orange County, where 66th District Assemblyman David Hadley is at 45.6% and trails ex-Assemblyman Al Muratsuchi:

Vote Count Percentage
AL MURATSUCHI (DEM) 36,832 48.3%
DAVID HADLEY (REP) 34,773 45.6%
MIKE MADRIGAL (DEM) 4,659 6.1%

The tri-county SD-29 is a good news, bad news situation for Republicans:

Vote Count Percentage
LING LING CHANG (REP) 52,131 44.8%
JOSH NEWMAN (DEM) 34,013 29.2%
SUKHEE KANG (DEM) 30,280 26.0%

As of the last reporting period ending May 21, Chang had $369,770 cash on hand, Newman had $21,835 cash on hand, and Kang had $173,086 cash on hand.  The good news is that Chang now faces a weaker, underfunded opponent for a key Senate target seat.  The bad news is Chang only got 44.8% of the vote in the primary.

Other scary numbers for Republican incumbents in Orange County last night:

  • Assemblyman Travis Allen has just 50.9% of the vote.
Vote Count Percentage
TRAVIS ALLEN (REP) 35,062 50.9%
LENORE ALBERT-SHERIDAN (DEM) 20,067 29.1%
NAM PHAM (DEM) 13,723 19.9%
  • Supervisor Andrew Do (R) is headed to a run-off with Michele Martinez (D), who he beat by 0.3% or 200 votes.
Vote Count Percentage
ANDREW DO 20,730 35.8%
MICHELE MARTINEZ 20,530 35.5%
PHAT BUI 11,026 19.1%
STEVE ROCCO 5,582 9.6%
  • Assemblyman Matthew Harper joins Assemblywoman Young Kim (who we discussed above) as the only two incumbents in Orange County who were not in first place.
Vote Count Percentage
KARINA ONOFRE (DEM) 33,570 42.5%
MATTHEW HARPER (REP) 30,614 38.7%
KATHERINE DAIGLE (REP) 14,885 18.8%
  • Orange County Board of Education President Robert Hammond (R) is breathing a sigh of relief that County Board of Education races are winner-take-all in June with no runoff, for he beat Beckie Gomez (D) by 1.9% or 961 votes:
Vote Count Percentage
ROBERT M. HAMMOND 21,100 42.4%
REBECCA “BECKIE” GOMEZ 20,139 40.5%
PAUL ZIVE 8,479 17.1%

There’s also the implications of California’s U.S. Senate race:

Vote Count Percentage
KAMALA D. HARRIS (DEM) 2,044,347 40.4%
LORETTA L. SANCHEZ (DEM) 939,107 18.5%
DUF SUNDHEIM (REP) 405,730 8.0%

With the top Republican vote-getter for U.S. Senate, Duf Sundheim, finishing a distant third, that means for the first time in California history, the November ballot for U.S. Senate will not include a Republican. Instead due to the top-two primary, only two Democrats will be on the U.S. Senate ballot in California.

Republicans face a tall order this fall to overcome the Democratic surge.  Republicans will have to unify behind Republican candidates.  The Republican Party must organize volunteers and raise significant funds.  The OC GOP must strengthen its financial and human infrastructure in order to defeat Democrats.  Otherwise, 2016 will be a bleak year indeed.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 65th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, California, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments »

AD-74: Katherine Daigle Pulls Papers, Joining Karina Onofre in Field of Increasingly Bizarre Challengers to Matt Harper

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 11, 2016

Assemblyman Matt Harper (R-Huntington Beach)

Assemblyman Matt Harper (R-Huntington Beach)

Katherine Daigle (R), Perennial candidate for Mayor of Irvine, has pulled papers to challenge the re-election bid of Assemblyman Matt Harper (R-Huntington Beach).  Daigle, who received 14% of the vote in 2012 and 11.6% of the vote in 2014, was accused of being a decoy candidate to split the Republican vote in the mayoral races, but Steven Choi (R) prevailed over Larry Agran (D) in 2012 and Mary Ann Gaido (D) in 2014 despite Daigle’s presence in the race.

Daigle’s quixotic bid for State Assembly means one of two things: she wasn’t a decoy candidate in her mayoral bids or her handlers to make her a decoy candidate for mayor have inadvertently unleashed her desires for any public office.

I don’t understand people who lose bids for office who decide to run for higher office.  How does losing two races for mayor make Daigle think she could win a race for Assembly?  (Similar note: How did Carly Fiorina think losing a U.S. Senate race would make her a good candidate for President?  At least Fiorina finally had the good sense to drop out of the presidential race yesterday.)

Daigle pulling papers combined with Karina Onofre being the sole Democrat to pull papers could well give AD-74 the most bizarre field of challengers for a sitting incumbent.

Readers may recall Onofre inadvertently played a key role in getting Harper elected to the Assembly in 2014.  That year, Onofre pulled papers for AD-74 as a Republican but filed papers as a Democrat (she had only been a Republican for 20 months).  Onofre pulled enough of the Democratic vote away from actual Democrat Anila Ali to push Ali into third place.  Harper then landed in second place behind Newport Beach Councilman Keith Curry (R).  Thanks to the top two primary and Onofre getting Ali into third place, Republicans Curry and Harper advanced to the run-off where Harper prevailed.  Had Onofre not gotten into the race, it would have been Curry vs. Ali in November, where Curry would have won by a landslide.

For the entire OC Political file on the bizarreness of Karina “Karina” Onofre, click here.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

OC GOP Sends Out Mailer Condemning Katherine Daigle for Use of Party Logo

Posted by Chris Nguyen on October 30, 2014

For years, candidates who did not have the Republican Party endorsement have used creative ways of implying that they’re endorsed by the party, sometimes through creative wording, other times with creative logos.

This year, the Republican Party of Orange County has been more aggressive in trying to curb these inaccurate implied endorsements and has been sending cease-and-desist letters to various candidates who have attempted to imply endorsements from the Republican Party despite not actually being endorsed.

It seems Irvine Mayoral Candidate Katherine Daigle went too far this time.  She has been using the official Republican Party logo for her campaign.  She too received a cease-and-desist letter.

Among the items mentioned in the cease-and-desist letter sent to several candidates is a threat that the party will “communicate this information to the citizens” of the area where the candidate is running.

The warning to Daigle reads in full: “Any further unauthorized use of our logo, including any further use of the mailers or signs in question, or any other attempt to falsely imply that you have been endorsed by the Republican Party will cause us to seek legal remedies and communicate this information to the citizens of Irvine to expose this deception.”

Apparently, Daigle didn’t heed the warning, and so today, a mailer landed in the mailboxes of Irvine Republicans blasting Daigle for “attempting to fool Republican voters” and blasting her using terms like “deceit,” “dishonest,” “trademark infringement,” “unethical,” and “illegal.”

The mailer even noted, “In Irvine’s last city election, Daigle tried to play the role of spoiler to get Larry Agran elected.  She was exposed as a plant candidate and both she and her friend Agran were thoroughly rejected at the polls.”

The OC GOP showed the threat has bite, and by making an example out of Katherine Daigle, other OC candidates may think twice before attempting to falsely imply a Republican Party endorsement in the future.  (Granted Irvine is a high priority for the OC GOP, so Daigle was a more tempting-than-average target, but what future candidate wants to gamble that they won’t get hit?)

Here’s the mailer for those interested in seeing it in its full glory, including a copy of the cease-and-desist letter from OC GOP Chairman Scott Baugh:

OCGOP Mailer Re Daigle Logo (Front)

OCGOP Mailer Re Daigle Letter (Back)

 

Posted in Irvine, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , | 5 Comments »

Irvine Mayor Steven Choi Won 75% of Precincts, Including Every Region in the City Except UCI

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 12, 2012

The New Irvine Council Majority: Mayor Pro Tem Jeff Lalloway, Councilwoman Christina Shea, and Mayor Steven Choi

The New Irvine Council Majority: Mayor Pro Tem Jeff Lalloway, Councilwoman Christina Shea, and Mayor Steven Choi

Last night, Steven Choi was sworn in as the first Republican Mayor of Irvine since 2000.  That last Republican Mayor was Christina Shea, who was sworn in to a new term last night as an Irvine Councilwoman after terming out in 2010.  The man who won Shea’s seat in 2010 was fellow Republican Jeff Lalloway, who became Mayor Pro Tem last night.

With all of that occurring last night, Larry Agran and Beth Krom were placed in the Irvine Council minority for the first time in a dozen years.  That 2000 election that gave the Democrats control of the Irvine Council majority saw Agran elected Mayor unopposed and Krom elected to the Council.  The 2012 election saw Krom re-elected to Council but Agran defeated for Mayor by Choi (though Agran remains on the Council as his term is 2010-2014).

The official results of Choi’s mayoral victory over Agran are as follows:

Steven S. Choi 32,505 45.7%
Larry Agran 28,741 40.4%
Katherine Daigle 9,951 14.0%

When a race is this close, you would expect there would be certain geographic areas in the city where Choi was strong and other areas where Agran was strong.  So let’s take a closer look; of the 127 precincts in the City of Irvine:

  • Choi won 95 (75% of all precincts, or 79% of precincts that cast votes for Mayor).
  • Agran won 24 (19% of all precincts, or 20% of precincts that cast votes for Mayor).
  • They tied in 2 (2% of all precincts and 2% of precincts that cast votes for Mayor).
  • Zero votes were cast for Mayor in 6 precincts (5% of all precincts).

Choi’s victory was quite evenly distributed in the city, with him winning all regions in the city except for the UCI campus precincts.  At UCI, Agran won 56% of the vote.  Choi won everywhere else.

It didn’t matter what districts were used – Choi won everywhere that wasn’t UCI.  He won the Irvine portions of both the 3rd and 5th Supervisorial Districts, both the 68th and 74th Assembly Districts, and both the Rancho Santiago and South Orange County Community College Districts (winning both the RSCCD Trustee Areas that cross Irvine and all three SOCCCD Trustee Areas that cross Irvine).  He won in the Irvine Unified School District and the Irvine portions of Santa Ana Unified and Tustin Unified.  He won in both divisions of the Orange County Water District and both divisions of the Municipal Water District of Orange County that crossed into Irvine.

Unfortunately for Agran, only 49% of registered voters in the UCI precincts turned out while 68% of registered voters in Irvine turned out.

It’s clear that other than UCI, there was no geographic divide in Steven Choi’s mayoral victory over Larry Agran to give Republicans control of the Irvine City Council for the first time in a dozen years.

Posted in Irvine | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »