Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 8, 2016
Republican Presidential Nominee
This is cross-posted to OC Daily.
In numbers that should scare Republicans across Orange County (and probably California, and maybe the United States), for the first time ever, more Orange County Democrats cast primary election ballots than Orange County Republicans did. Even in 2012, when Mitt Romney had sewn up the presidential nomination, more Republicans cast primary election votes than did in 2016. Even in the 2008 battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Democrats could not surpass Republicans in primary election ballots cast.
The 2012 general election was a bloodbath for Republicans:
- Democrats captured 2 Assembly seats from Republicans.
- Democrats captured 3 Senate seats from Republicans.
- Romney beat Obama by just 6.3% in Orange County.
Gerrymandered districts likely saved Republicans in 2008. The 2016 elections will be conducted under the same district lines that were first contested in 2012.
2016 threatens to be worse than 2012. Nowhere in Orange County is that more evident than in AD-65. Here is how Assemblyman Chris Norby did against challenger Mayor Sharon Quirk-Silva in the 2012 primary:
|CHRIS NORBY (REP)
|SHARON QUIRK-SILVA (DEM)
Here is how Assemblywoman Young Kim did against challenger ex-Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva last night:
|SHARON QUIRK-SILVA (DEM)
|YOUNG KIM (REP)
Norby led Quirk-Silva by 17.6% in the 2012 primary before losing to her in the general election by a 52%-48% margin. Kim is behind in the 2016 primary by an even larger margin than Norby lost in the 2012 general. Republicans will need to marshal massive financial and human resources in order to save the AD-65 seat.
Things look even bleaker in a swing seat that neighbors Orange County, where 66th District Assemblyman David Hadley is at 45.6% and trails ex-Assemblyman Al Muratsuchi:
|AL MURATSUCHI (DEM)
|DAVID HADLEY (REP)
|MIKE MADRIGAL (DEM)
The tri-county SD-29 is a good news, bad news situation for Republicans:
|LING LING CHANG (REP)
|JOSH NEWMAN (DEM)
|SUKHEE KANG (DEM)
As of the last reporting period ending May 21, Chang had $369,770 cash on hand, Newman had $21,835 cash on hand, and Kang had $173,086 cash on hand. The good news is that Chang now faces a weaker, underfunded opponent for a key Senate target seat. The bad news is Chang only got 44.8% of the vote in the primary.
Other scary numbers for Republican incumbents in Orange County last night:
- Assemblyman Travis Allen has just 50.9% of the vote.
|TRAVIS ALLEN (REP)
|LENORE ALBERT-SHERIDAN (DEM)
|NAM PHAM (DEM)
- Supervisor Andrew Do (R) is headed to a run-off with Michele Martinez (D), who he beat by 0.3% or 200 votes.
- Assemblyman Matthew Harper joins Assemblywoman Young Kim (who we discussed above) as the only two incumbents in Orange County who were not in first place.
|KARINA ONOFRE (DEM)
|MATTHEW HARPER (REP)
|KATHERINE DAIGLE (REP)
- Orange County Board of Education President Robert Hammond (R) is breathing a sigh of relief that County Board of Education races are winner-take-all in June with no runoff, for he beat Beckie Gomez (D) by 1.9% or 961 votes:
|ROBERT M. HAMMOND
|REBECCA “BECKIE” GOMEZ
There’s also the implications of California’s U.S. Senate race:
|KAMALA D. HARRIS (DEM)
|LORETTA L. SANCHEZ (DEM)
|DUF SUNDHEIM (REP)
With the top Republican vote-getter for U.S. Senate, Duf Sundheim, finishing a distant third, that means for the first time in California history, the November ballot for U.S. Senate will not include a Republican. Instead due to the top-two primary, only two Democrats will be on the U.S. Senate ballot in California.
Republicans face a tall order this fall to overcome the Democratic surge. Republicans will have to unify behind Republican candidates. The Republican Party must organize volunteers and raise significant funds. The OC GOP must strengthen its financial and human infrastructure in order to defeat Democrats. Otherwise, 2016 will be a bleak year indeed.
Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 65th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, California, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: Al Muratsuchi, Andrew Do, Barack Obama, Chris Norby, David Hadley, Donald Trump, Duf Sundheim, Hillary Clinton, Josh Newman, Kamala Harris, Karina Onofre, Katherine Daigle, Lenore Albert-Sheridan, Ling-Ling Chang, Loretta Sanchez, Matthew Harper, Michele Martinez, Mike Madrigal, Mitt Romney, Nam Pham, Paul Zive, Phat Bui, Rebecca Gomez, Robert Hammond, Robert M. Hammond, Robert Morris Hammond, Sharon Quirk-Silva, Steve Rocco, Sukhee Kang, Travis Allen, Young Kim | 7 Comments »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 11, 2016
Assemblyman Matt Harper (R-Huntington Beach)
Katherine Daigle (R), Perennial candidate for Mayor of Irvine, has pulled papers to challenge the re-election bid of Assemblyman Matt Harper (R-Huntington Beach). Daigle, who received 14% of the vote in 2012 and 11.6% of the vote in 2014, was accused of being a decoy candidate to split the Republican vote in the mayoral races, but Steven Choi (R) prevailed over Larry Agran (D) in 2012 and Mary Ann Gaido (D) in 2014 despite Daigle’s presence in the race.
Daigle’s quixotic bid for State Assembly means one of two things: she wasn’t a decoy candidate in her mayoral bids or her handlers to make her a decoy candidate for mayor have inadvertently unleashed her desires for any public office.
I don’t understand people who lose bids for office who decide to run for higher office. How does losing two races for mayor make Daigle think she could win a race for Assembly? (Similar note: How did Carly Fiorina think losing a U.S. Senate race would make her a good candidate for President? At least Fiorina finally had the good sense to drop out of the presidential race yesterday.)
Daigle pulling papers combined with Karina Onofre being the sole Democrat to pull papers could well give AD-74 the most bizarre field of challengers for a sitting incumbent.
Readers may recall Onofre inadvertently played a key role in getting Harper elected to the Assembly in 2014. That year, Onofre pulled papers for AD-74 as a Republican but filed papers as a Democrat (she had only been a Republican for 20 months). Onofre pulled enough of the Democratic vote away from actual Democrat Anila Ali to push Ali into third place. Harper then landed in second place behind Newport Beach Councilman Keith Curry (R). Thanks to the top two primary and Onofre getting Ali into third place, Republicans Curry and Harper advanced to the run-off where Harper prevailed. Had Onofre not gotten into the race, it would have been Curry vs. Ali in November, where Curry would have won by a landslide.
For the entire OC Political file on the bizarreness of Karina “Karina” Onofre, click here.
Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: Anila Ali, Carly Fiorina, Karina Onofre, Katherine Daigle, Keith Curry, Larry Agran, Mary Ann Gaido, Matt Harper, Matthew Harper, Steven Choi | 1 Comment »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on October 30, 2014
For years, candidates who did not have the Republican Party endorsement have used creative ways of implying that they’re endorsed by the party, sometimes through creative wording, other times with creative logos.
This year, the Republican Party of Orange County has been more aggressive in trying to curb these inaccurate implied endorsements and has been sending cease-and-desist letters to various candidates who have attempted to imply endorsements from the Republican Party despite not actually being endorsed.
It seems Irvine Mayoral Candidate Katherine Daigle went too far this time. She has been using the official Republican Party logo for her campaign. She too received a cease-and-desist letter.
Among the items mentioned in the cease-and-desist letter sent to several candidates is a threat that the party will “communicate this information to the citizens” of the area where the candidate is running.
The warning to Daigle reads in full: “Any further unauthorized use of our logo, including any further use of the mailers or signs in question, or any other attempt to falsely imply that you have been endorsed by the Republican Party will cause us to seek legal remedies and communicate this information to the citizens of Irvine to expose this deception.”
Apparently, Daigle didn’t heed the warning, and so today, a mailer landed in the mailboxes of Irvine Republicans blasting Daigle for “attempting to fool Republican voters” and blasting her using terms like “deceit,” “dishonest,” “trademark infringement,” “unethical,” and “illegal.”
The mailer even noted, “In Irvine’s last city election, Daigle tried to play the role of spoiler to get Larry Agran elected. She was exposed as a plant candidate and both she and her friend Agran were thoroughly rejected at the polls.”
The OC GOP showed the threat has bite, and by making an example out of Katherine Daigle, other OC candidates may think twice before attempting to falsely imply a Republican Party endorsement in the future. (Granted Irvine is a high priority for the OC GOP, so Daigle was a more tempting-than-average target, but what future candidate wants to gamble that they won’t get hit?)
Here’s the mailer for those interested in seeing it in its full glory, including a copy of the cease-and-desist letter from OC GOP Chairman Scott Baugh:
Posted in Irvine, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Katherine Daigle, Scott Baugh | 5 Comments »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 12, 2012
The New Irvine Council Majority: Mayor Pro Tem Jeff Lalloway, Councilwoman Christina Shea, and Mayor Steven Choi
Last night, Steven Choi was sworn in as the first Republican Mayor of Irvine since 2000. That last Republican Mayor was Christina Shea, who was sworn in to a new term last night as an Irvine Councilwoman after terming out in 2010. The man who won Shea’s seat in 2010 was fellow Republican Jeff Lalloway, who became Mayor Pro Tem last night.
With all of that occurring last night, Larry Agran and Beth Krom were placed in the Irvine Council minority for the first time in a dozen years. That 2000 election that gave the Democrats control of the Irvine Council majority saw Agran elected Mayor unopposed and Krom elected to the Council. The 2012 election saw Krom re-elected to Council but Agran defeated for Mayor by Choi (though Agran remains on the Council as his term is 2010-2014).
The official results of Choi’s mayoral victory over Agran are as follows:
|Steven S. Choi
When a race is this close, you would expect there would be certain geographic areas in the city where Choi was strong and other areas where Agran was strong. So let’s take a closer look; of the 127 precincts in the City of Irvine:
- Choi won 95 (75% of all precincts, or 79% of precincts that cast votes for Mayor).
- Agran won 24 (19% of all precincts, or 20% of precincts that cast votes for Mayor).
- They tied in 2 (2% of all precincts and 2% of precincts that cast votes for Mayor).
- Zero votes were cast for Mayor in 6 precincts (5% of all precincts).
Choi’s victory was quite evenly distributed in the city, with him winning all regions in the city except for the UCI campus precincts. At UCI, Agran won 56% of the vote. Choi won everywhere else.
It didn’t matter what districts were used – Choi won everywhere that wasn’t UCI. He won the Irvine portions of both the 3rd and 5th Supervisorial Districts, both the 68th and 74th Assembly Districts, and both the Rancho Santiago and South Orange County Community College Districts (winning both the RSCCD Trustee Areas that cross Irvine and all three SOCCCD Trustee Areas that cross Irvine). He won in the Irvine Unified School District and the Irvine portions of Santa Ana Unified and Tustin Unified. He won in both divisions of the Orange County Water District and both divisions of the Municipal Water District of Orange County that crossed into Irvine.
Unfortunately for Agran, only 49% of registered voters in the UCI precincts turned out while 68% of registered voters in Irvine turned out.
It’s clear that other than UCI, there was no geographic divide in Steven Choi’s mayoral victory over Larry Agran to give Republicans control of the Irvine City Council for the first time in a dozen years.
Posted in Irvine | Tagged: Beth Krom, Christina L. Shea, Christina Shea, Jeff Lalloway, Jeffrey Lalloway, Katherine Daigle, Larry Agran, Steven Choi, Steven S. Choi | Leave a Comment »