OC’s Close Contests: AD-72 Now Reaches Close Contest Status
Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 6, 2020
After counting 29,601 ballots yesterday (and with more ballots arriving from the Post Office), the Orange County Registrar of Voters reports 139,058 ballots remain while 538,378 have been counted, which means 79.5% of OC’s ballots have already been counted (though a small number of additional ballots could arrive today from the Post Office that were postmarked by March 3; today is the last day ballots can reach the Registrar and still be counted).
As OC Political noted yesterday, the Secretary of State defines “Close Contests” as those races where there is a margin of 2% or less, so we are tracking Orange County’s close contests where there is a margin of 2% or less.
The race for the 72nd Assembly District has now narrowed enough to meet that 2% criteria, as Assemblyman Tyler Diep (R-Westminster) battles Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) for the second slot in the top two to advance to November with former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley), who holds a strong lead for first place.
Because Central Committee races are exhausting to analyze and write about (and presumably exhausting to read about), only races where a new person is in sixth place (since the top six are elected in each district) are covered below. So instead of Republican Central Committee for five districts and Democratic Central Committee for seven districts, only three Central Committee races are below: 69th District for the Central Committees of both major parties and 74th District for the Democratic Central Committee.
37th Senate District
In the 37th Senate District race for the second slot to reach the top two against Senator John Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa), UCI Law Professor Dave Min (D-Irvine) grew his lead over Mayor Katrina Foley (D-Costa Mesa) by 114 votes to 2,447 votes (1.37%). He previously led by 2,333 votes (1.36%).
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88,681 | 49.55% | ||||
| D) | 46,368 | 25.91% | |||
| 43,921 | 24.54% |
72nd Assembly District
In the 72nd Assembly District race for the second slot to reach the top two against former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley), incumbent Tyler Diep (R-Westminster) saw his lead dramatically shrink against Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) as late Democratic ballots fueled a surge for Diedre Nguyen.
In the prior count, Diep had 20,382 votes (26.40%) while Diedre Nguyen had 18,407 votes (23.84%), giving Diep a lead of 1,975 votes (2.56%). In the latest count, Diep gained 1,177 votes but Diedre Nguyen gained 1,866 votes, narrowing Diep’s lead to 1,286 votes (1.54%).
The Diep camp will be nervous and the Diedre Nguyen camp will be optimistic as late Democratic ballots continue to be counted, threatening to turn an all-Republican November contest in AD-72 into an all-Nguyen November contest in AD-72.
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28,956 | 34.83% | ||||
| 21,559 | 25.93% | ||||
| 20,273 | 24.39% | ||||
| 12,345 | 14.85% |
1st Supervisorial District
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29,513 | 44.67% | ||||
| 13,820 | 20.92% | ||||
| 12,852 | 19.45% | ||||
| 9,877 | 14.95% |
Republican Central Committee, 69th District
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,370 | 14.54% | ||||
| 3,825 | 12.72% | ||||
| 3,821 | 12.71% | ||||
| 3,689 | 12.27% | ||||
| 3,371 | 11.21% | ||||
| 3,360 | 11.18% | ||||
| 2,928 | 9.74% | ||||
| 2,584 | 8.60% | ||||
| 2,112 | 7.03% |
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8,446 | 11.84% | ||||
| 8,342 | 11.69% | ||||
| 7,686 | 10.77% | ||||
| 6,511 | 9.13% | ||||
| 5,444 | 7.63% | ||||
| 5,322 | 7.46% | ||||
| 5,307 | 7.44% | ||||
| 5,032 | 7.05% | ||||
| 4,353 | 6.10% | ||||
| 4,180 | 5.86% | ||||
| 3,767 | 5.28% | ||||
| 3,535 | 4.95% | ||||
| 3,427 | 4.80% |
Democratic Central Committee, 74th District
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11,514 | 8.85% | ||||
| 10,190 | 7.83% | ||||
| 10,065 | 7.73% | ||||
| 9,999 | 7.68% | ||||
| 9,852 | 7.57% | ||||
| 9,633 | 7.40% | ||||
| 9,468 | 7.27% | ||||
| 8,714 | 6.70% | ||||
| 8,314 | 6.39% | ||||
| 7,679 | 5.90% | ||||
| 7,134 | 5.48% | ||||
| 6,426 | 4.94% | ||||
| 5,882 | 4.52% | ||||
| 4,631 | 3.56% | ||||
| 4,532 | 3.48% | ||||
| 3,591 | 2.76% | ||||
| 2,527 | 1.94% |
OC Political 
TheMarshallPlan said
Even though it’s not currently a close contest I’m looking at Don Wagner’s race. His percentage has decline after every update plus it’s only a two person race and after what happened to Mimi last election and John Moorlach’s showing this is one race I’m really focused on.
P.S. Appreciate your daily updates. Insightful and informative.