OC’s Close Contests: 47.9% Turnout, 86.9% of Ballots Counted, Nguyen and Contreras Gain, TUSD Measure N Enters Close Contest Status, SD-37 No Longer Close
Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2020
The OC vote count continues, with approximately 13.1% of ballots still to be counted.
After counting 57,747 ballots on Saturday and 38,692 yesterday, the Orange County Registrar of Voters reports 102,610 ballots remain while 680,464 have been counted, which means approximately 86.9% of OC’s 783,074 ballots have already been counted (OC voter turnout in the 2020 primary appears to be 47.9%).
As OC Political noted Thursday, the Secretary of State defines “Close Contests” as those races where there is a margin of 2% or less, so we are tracking Orange County’s close contests where there is a margin of 2% or less.
In the 37th Senate District, Professor Dave Min (D-Irvine) continues to grow his lead over Mayor Katrina Foley (D-Costa Mesa) to be the Democratic nominee against Senator John Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa), increasing that lead to 5,118 votes (2.38%) on Saturday and to 6,327 votes (2.71%) yesterday. It no longer meets the “Close Contest” definition and is unlikely to return to that status, as Min has consistently grown his lead over Foley.
Because Central Committee races are exhausting to analyze and write about (and presumably exhausting to read about), only races where a new person is in sixth place (since the top six are elected in each district) are being covered, the two-day count resulted in no changes in any of the Central Committee races in either major party.
In the 72nd Assembly District race for the second slot to reach the top two against former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley), incumbent Tyler Diep (R-Westminster) saw his lead continue to shrink against Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) as late Democratic ballots continue to fuel Diedre Nguyen.
Yesterday, Diep’s lead declined slightly to 291 votes (0.29%), but this was after Diep’s lead over Diedre Nguyen plunged on Saturday to 309 votes (0.31%). In the prior three counts, he had led by 1,050 (1.19%), 1,286 votes (1.54%), and 1,975 votes (2.56%).
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34,696 | 43.88% | ||||
| 16,900 | 21.37% | ||||
| 15,607 | 19.74% | ||||
| 11,874 | 15.02% |
Tustin Unified School District Measure N
| Candidate Name | Total Votes | Percentage | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,080 | 53.01% | ||||
| 8,937 | 46.99% |
OC Political 
cstfullerton said
Any hypothesis about what was different in Tustin?
Chris Thompson Fullerton, CA 714-733-3026
>
Chris Nguyen said
Thanks for the question. I’ve responded with my theories in today’s post at https://ocpolitical.com/2020/03/11/ocs-close-contests-90-2-of-ballots-counted-d-nguyen-within-17-votes-of-diep-contreras-gains-why-tusd-measure-n-is-ocs-closest-bond/
Alex said
What happens if the Tustin bond passes but the State Prop 13 did not ? Does the funds just get earmarked for something else instead of matching funds ?
Chris Nguyen said
As with most local bonds, the bond was never earmarked with matching funds; the bond would proceed with hope for matching funds. Frankly, the hope of matching funds was simply a common bond campaign tactic. The way the bond was drafted, it would have proceeded without Prop 13 funds had Measure N passed.
In the text of Measure N, they simply used this permissive language: “Passage of a school improvement bond measure will help the District qualify for state matching funds that otherwise may be lost to other school districts.”
Click to access TUSD_-_FT.pdf
The impartial analysis of Measure N notes: “Approval of Measure N does not guarantee that the proposed project or projects in the School District that are the subject of the bonds under Measure N will be funded beyond the local revenues generated by Measure N. The School District’s proposal for the project or projects may assume the receipt of matching state funds, which could be subject to appropriation by the Legislature or approval of a statewide bond measure.”
Click to access TUSD_-_IA.pdf
OC’s Close Contests: 90.2% of Ballots Counted, D. Nguyen Within 17 Votes of Diep, Contreras Gains, Why TUSD Measure N is OC’s Closest Bond « OC Political said
[…] Fullerton Elementary School District Trustee Chris Thompson (R) inquired in the comments on yesterday’s post about if there were any theories as to why Measure N got closer to passage than any other school […]