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Archive for the ‘2nd Supervisorial District’ Category

Giant Grid of Endorsements for the June 3 Primary Election

Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 30, 2014

One of our most popular posts from the November 2012 General Election was “Humongous Grid of Endorsements,” so we’re back this election with the Giant Grid of Endorsements for the June 2014 Primary Election.

I did abbreviate for some groups, so OC GOP = Republican Party of Orange County, DPOC = Democratic Party of Orange County, CRA = California Republican Assembly, HJTA = Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, CWLA = California Women’s Leadership Association, OC Tax = Orange County Taxpayers Association, OCBC = Orange County Business Council, and CTA = California Teachers Association.

If you’re particularly interested in a group, click their name to view their endorsements on their web site.  You can learn more about the group there, such as HJTA being the state’s leading taxpayer advocate group or Women in Leadership being a single-issue group with the sole goal of electing “pro-choice women candidates to local, regional and state-wide office who support keeping abortion legal.” (In light of their mission, does anyone else find it odd that Women in Leadership’s two endorsements on this grid are both for school board?)

Candidates in each race are listed in alphabetical order by last name, except incumbents got listed first in their respective races.  Party affiliations are listed except for judicial candidates Thomas Martin and Wayne Philips, as I could not tell their affiliation from the voter database (common names combined with obscure judicial races make figuring out their affiliations challenging).

Whether you love a group and want to vote with their endorsements or hate a group and want to vote against their endorsements, here are the endorsements for county offices and school board, along with local ballot measures:

OC GOP DPOC OC Register Lincoln Club Atlas PAC CRA Family Action PAC HJTA CWLA OC Tax OCBC CTA OC Labor Federation Evolve Women in Leadership Planned Parenthood
Supervisor, 2nd District
Joe Carchio (R)
Allan Mansoor (R) X
Jim Moreno (D) X X X X
Michelle Steel (R) X X X X X X
Supervisor, 4th District
Shawn Nelson (R – incumbent) X X X X X
Rudy Gaona (D) X X
Supervisor, 5th District
Lisa Bartlett (R)
Robert Ming (R) X X X X X X
Frank Ury (R) X X X
Joe Williams (NPP)
Assessor
Webster Guillory (NPP – incumbent) X
Jorge Lopez (D) X X
Claude Parrish (R) X X X X X
Auditor-Controller
James Benuzzi (D)
Mike Dalati (D) X
Frank Davies (R)
John Willard (NPP) X
Eric Woolery (R) X X X X
Clerk-Recorder
Hugh Nguyen (R – incumbent) X X X X X X
Monica Maddox (R)
Gary Pritchard (D) X X
Steve Rocco (NPP)
District Attorney-Public Administrator
Tony Rackauckas (R – incumbent) X X X X X
Greg Diamond (D) X
Sheriff-Coroner
Sandra Hutchens (R – incumbent) X X X X
Superintendent of Schools
Al Mijares (R – incumbent) X X
Treasurer-Tax Collector
Shari Freidenrich (R – incumbent) X X X X X X X
Judge, Office #14
Fred Fascenelli (R)
Kevin Haskins (R) X X X X X
KC Jones (R) X
Thomas Martin
Judge, Office #20
Derek Johnson (D – incumbent)
Helen Hayden (R) X X X X
Judge, Office #27
Joanne Motoike (D – incumbent) X X X
Wayne Philips
Judge, Office #35
Jeff Ferguson (R) X X X
Carmen Luege (R) X X
County Board of Education, Trustee Area 2
David Boyd (R – incumbent) * X X X
Tom Pollitt (R) X X X X X X
County Board of Education, Trustee Area 5
Elizabeth Parker (R – incumbent) * X X X X
Linda Lindholm (R) X X X X X X X
Irvine Unified School District (Special Election for Six-Month Term)
Ira Glasky (R – incumbent) X X  X
Carolyn Inmon (D) X X
Bob Vu (R)
Measure A (Orange County)
Yes X X X X
No
Measure B (Buena Park School District)
Yes
No X
Measure C (Anaheim)
Yes X X
No
Measure D (Anaheim)
Yes
No X
Measure E (Anaheim)
Yes X X
No

*The Democratic Party of Orange County did not endorse David Boyd or Elizabeth Parker, instead the DPOC issued anti-endorsements against Tom Pollitt and Linda Lindholm.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 4th Supervisorial District, 5th Supervisorial District, Anaheim, Buena Park School District, Democrat Central Committee, Irvine Unified School District, Orange County, Orange County Assessor, Orange County Auditor-Controller, Orange County Board of Education, Orange County Clerk-Recorder, Orange County Public Administrator, Orange County Treasurer-Tax Collector, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Carchio in the Mail for 2nd Supervisorial – Beats Mansoor

Posted by Marion Morrison on May 29, 2014

Interestingly we received a small postcard in the mail today with all 75 pieces of typical campaign literature.  For some reason, this little guy actually stood out amongst the rest.  One would really have to read into it – but to reach a large audience, this late in the game and for a smaller price tag, Joe Carchio actually gets an A for effort.  While I personally don’t think this will help propel Carchio into November, it may steal away enough votes and prevent Michelle Steel from walking away with the clean sweep.  Allan Mansoor still has yet to put out one piece of traditional campaign mail.  Tick tock, tick tock…

Carchio Postcard 2 of 2 Carchio Postcard 1 of 2

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Mail | Tagged: , , | 3 Comments »

2nd Supervisorial – Steel Receives 4th IE Mailer from AOCDS and Hits Mansoor Twice

Posted by Marion Morrison on May 29, 2014

Today’s mail was literally coming out of my ears.  AOCDS has sent out their 4th mailer supporting Michelle Steel.  This is a straight public safety piece which even includes the AOCDS logo.  Also in the mail were two hit pieces on Allan Mansoor, one of which mentions his previous support for pension increases and one talks about the government pension he’ll receive from being a former Sheriff.  Hmmmm…

Steel IE 2 of 2 Steel IE 1 of 2

Steel Hit 2 2 of 2 Steel Hit 2 1 of 2

Steel Hit 2 of 2 Steel Hit 1 of 2

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Mail | Tagged: , , | 1 Comment »

Michelle Steel Comparison Piece

Posted by Marion Morrison on May 28, 2014

With the Memorial Day break in postal activity, the Morrison household received a total of five pieces of political mail.  Here is the second of three pieces in favor of Michelle Steel (the other was a duplicate of a previous mailer).  This is a comparison piece attacking Allan Mansoor’s lack of any significant contributions in the State Assembly.


Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Mail | Tagged: , | 3 Comments »

IE #3 for Michelle Steel

Posted by Marion Morrison on May 28, 2014

The Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs are back in the mail with yet another Independent Expenditure mailing for Michelle Steel.

Steel IE 2 of 2 Steel IE 1 of 2

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Mail, Uncategorized | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Community Outreach Event for Michelle Steel and Dana Rohrabacher at the Wild Goose

Posted by Marion Morrison on May 25, 2014

A friend of the Morrison clan received this invitation from the owner of the Wild Goose in Costa Mesa.  It’s a “neighborhood meeting with Dana Rohrabacher and Michelle Steel,” with a light lunch served.  Interestingly enough, the mailer is paid for by both the Rohrabacher and Steel campaigns respectively.

Steel Rhorabacher Event

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AOCDS Drops Piece #2 in Support of Michelle Steel

Posted by Marion Morrison on May 25, 2014

Voters in the 2nd Supervisorial District received another mailer today from the Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs, supporting Michelle Steel. The mailer touts Steel’s record of tax protection for homeowners.

Steel IE 2 of 2 Steel IE 1 of 2

 

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Michelle Steel Receives First IE – AOCDS Delivers, While Mansoor Appeals to Facebook Friends

Posted by Marion Morrison on May 22, 2014

The first IE for the 2nd Supervisorial District has hit mailboxes today.  The Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs has come out in support of Michelle Steel with this positive piece.

Steel IE 2 of 2 Steel IE 1 of 2

Meanwhile, Allan Mansoor appeals to friends on Facebook to let people know what has transpired:

Public Employee Unions Rally for Michelle Steel

Friends,

Over the weekend, I received notice that the Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs union will be sending out its first mailer on behalf of Michelle Steel sometime in the next 24 hours. The union endorsement, shown below, is the most important part.

Given Michelle’s history, it’s not surprising. I’ve known it was only a matter of time before public employee unions started lining up to support her.

In 2006, public employee unions spent hundreds of thousands of dollars opposing my reelection to City Council. That same year, Michelle received multiple $1000+ union contributions to her campaign for BOE. (see attached photo below)

Given that independent expenditures rarely seem “independent” this probably isn’t a surprise for Steel either. Perhaps it’s why she refused to rule out immediate raises for county employees to offset increased employee pension contributions.

Have trouble believing that Michelle Steel, self-proclaimed “taxpayer advocate”, would undermine pension reform? Her comments starting at the 12:30 mark of the Feet to the Fire Forum speak for themselves.

What do union endorsements like this mean? It means that a candidate can be trusted by union bosses to help increase their power. It doesn’t mean that rank and file membership support the candidate.

I continue to have strong support from my former colleagues – rank and file Deputy Sheriffs – who know that pension reform is the only way to save our pensions. Everyone who has worked in law enforcement and is expecting a pension – myself included – depends on sustainable pensions. A bankrupt pension system might leave us with nothing.

This isn’t the only time union leaders have been out of touch with the membership. In 2006, when convicted-Sheriff Mike Carona was running for reelection, I joined many of my fellow Deputies in standing up against Mike Carona and supported Lt. Bill Hunt.

We knew then that Mike Carona was corrupt and that it was only a matter of time before he went to prison. But then we watched with disappointment as our “leadership” fell over themselves to undermine Lt. Hunt’s campaign and continue supporting Carona until the bitter end.

Not much has changed since the days of Carona. Union bosses still prefer candidates who will engage in backroom dealmaking and are more interested in holding office than serving the community.

My desire to make Orange County a better place to live is shared by rank and file members, many of whom have my sign in their yards. It’s the union bosses and other special interests that oppose me because I will always stand up for what is right, regardless of the political consequences.

We’re in the final stretch of the campaign, and I need your help. With your help, we can keep the public employee union bosses from buying a seat on the Orange County Board of Supervisors.

Please contribute here and together we can help keep this seat for the residents of Orange County’s 2nd District.

Thank you for your continued friendship and support.

Allan

http://www.facebook.com/allanmansoor/posts/10201131476609410

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Independent Expenditures, Mail | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Handicapping The Races: OC Board of Supervisors 2nd District (June 2014)

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 21, 2014

Whenever I write my posts handicapping races, Chris Nguyen gets really angry and stops just short of throwing things at me. With this in mind, I am not going to handicap all races in Orange County. I will select a few races that I find to be a bit more interesting and predict the winners.

We are going to start this season off with a look at the 2nd Supervisorial District race, which features the following candidates:

  • Jim Moreno – Governing Board Member, Coast Community College District
  • Allan Mansoor – California Assemblyman
  • Joe Carchio – Councilman/Retired Businessowner
  • Michelle Steel – Board of Equalization Member

Voter registration heavily favors Republicans, with Republicans having 44% of registered voters in District 2, compared to Democrats who hold just 29% of voter registration. With that being said, party affiliation matters very little in a race for Orange County Supervisor since the candidates’ parties are not listed on the ballot, so that will definitely help spare Jim Moreno, the lone Democrat in the race. The 2nd Supervisorial District currently has the following cities within its boundaries:

  • Costa Mesa
  • Cypress
  • Huntington Beach
  • La Palma
  • Los Alamitos
  • Newport Beach
  • Seal Beach
  • Stanton
  • Buena Park (Portion)
  • Fountain Valley (Portion)

Also, it is important to explain that the way a race for Orange County Supervisor works is that the top two vote getters will advance to November, unless the top vote getter finishes with over 50% of the vote.

Jim Moreno

Jim Moreno is the lone Democrat in the race and the lone candidate with an education-related ballot designation. His political career is limited to his time on the Coast Community College District Board (since 2006). Let’s take a look at his electoral history.

Results from 2010 (General Election):

COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 1
Completed Precincts: 507 of 507
Vote Count Percentage
* JIM MORENO 101,092 63.5%
SHANA CHRISTINA JENKINS 58,068 36.5%

Results from 2006 (General Election):

COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT Governing Board Member Trustee Area 1
Completed Precincts: 497 of 497
Vote Count Percentage
JIM MORENO 61696 46.0%
CARL A. HENDON 25916 19.3%
LU TUAN NGUYEN 25711 19.2%
TOM HERMSTAD 20837 15.5%

Moreno does have some name ID through the two elections he has been on the ballot for Coast Community College District.

Moreno has the weakest fundraising numbers as of the last report (under $22,000 cash on hand) and does not appear to have the funds to run a very comprehensive campaign. No direct mail has been sent out at this point, no campaign signs are up, and only a few slates have him on it. I have not gotten any feedback on much of a ground game up to this point which is what he would have needed to have done to be more competitive.

He actually came across very well at the Feet to the Fire candidate debate a few weeks ago, and he was, in my opinion, the second-most impressive candidate at the forum.

Based on the factors above, I think Moreno has a slight chance of advancing to November.

Allan Mansoor

Allan Mansoor beat the odds, if you listened to most predictions back in 2012, when he defeated Leslie Daigle in his re-election bid for the 74th Assembly District. I made the accurate prediction of Mansoor advancing to November with Democrat Bob Rush.

Mansoor spent a number of years as a Costa Mesa Councilmember and then went on to serve as the Assemblymember from the 68th Assembly District in 2010. In 2012 after redistricting, the seat he represents became the 74th Assembly District. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.

Results from 2012 (Open Primary):

MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 74th District
Completed Precincts: 392 of 392
Vote Count Percentage
ALLAN R. MANSOOR 33,319 43.5%
ROBERT RUSH 25,120 32.8%
LESLIE DAIGLE 18,207 23.8%

Results from 2010 (Republican Primary):

MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 68th District – Republican
Completed Precincts: 291 of 291
Vote Count Percentage
ALLAN R. MANSOOR (REP) 22,063 69.3%
LONG PHAM (REP) 9,777 30.7%

Results from 2006 (General Election):

CITY OF COSTA MESA Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 70 of 70
Vote Count Percentage
ALLAN R. MANSOOR 10122 25.9%
WENDY BROOKS LEECE 9524 24.4%
BRUCE GARLICH 8280 21.2%
MIKE SCHEAFER 7255 18.6%
MIRNA BURCIAGA 2717 7.0%
CHRIS BUNYAN 1190 3.0%

Finally, the results from 2002

City of Costa Mesa Member, City Council
Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 81 of 81
Vote Count Percentage
Gary Monahan 10,739 31.0%
Allan R. Mansoor 7,617 22.0%
Linda Dixon 7,092 20.5%
Katrina Foley 5,690 16.4%
William Perkins 3,520 10.2%

As you can see from the election results, Mansoor has a history of winning elections and has some good name ID in the 2nd Supervisorial District (especially in Costa Mesa). Costa Mesa has the third-most voters of any city in the 2nd Supervisorial District, behind Newport Beach and Huntington Beach.

However, Mansoor has had abysmal fundraising numbers as of the last report (less than $62,000 cash-on-hand) and has not run a very impressive campaign. According to our blogger, Marion Morrison, Mansoor went negative in his very first piece of mail in this race. It is a basic rule in campaigning that you have to go positive at least twice before you can go negative. Also, Mansoor has some of the worst campaign signs that I have ever seen with his name appearing in very small letters on the sign. I have not heard of him appearing on any slates at this point. His campaign appears to be focused mostly on going to lots of events.

I will give him a break on his performance at the Feet to the Fire candidate forum, since the debate is an absolute circus (if I was prepping a client for this debate, it would include people with vuvuzelas and other noisemakers to try and create as many distractions as possible).

All of this, combined with a late start to the campaign, in my book, make it a large uphill battle for Mansoor.

Joe Carchio

Joe Carchio might be the most interesting of the candidates running for this seat who are not named Michelle Steel. Carchio is currently a Councilmember from Huntington Beach, which is the largest city in the 2nd Supervisorial District. Prior to his time on the council, he owned the popular restaurant, “Jersey Joe’s” in Huntington Beach.

Carchio has been a consistent winner in both elections that he participated in for Huntington Beach City Council. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.

Results from 2010 (General Election):

CITY OF HUNTINGTON BEACH Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 4
Completed Precincts: 152 of 152
Vote Count Percentage
CONNIE BOARDMAN 20,019 9.4%
* JOE CARCHIO 18,523 8.7%
MATTHEW HARPER 15,886 7.5%
JOE SHAW 14,585 6.9%
BARBARA DELGLEIZE 14,171 6.7%
BLAIR FARLEY 13,932 6.5%
BILLY O’CONNELL 13,175 6.2%
JIM KATAPODIS 13,100 6.2%
FRED J. SPEAKER 11,183 5.3%
DAN KALMICK 10,775 5.1%
NORM WESTWELL 10,187 4.8%
BILL RORICK 9,835 4.6%
HEATHER GROW 9,624 4.5%
SHAWN ROSELIUS 7,628 3.6%
ERIK PETERSON 7,137 3.4%
BRUCE J. BRANDT 7,125 3.3%
LANDON FICHTNER 4,654 2.2%
ANDRISSA DOMINGUEZ 4,440 2.1%
WILLIAM GRUNWALD 3,652 1.7%
JOHN VON HOLLE 3,209 1.5%
BLAKE ROSE (W) 50 0.0%

Results from 2006 (General Election):

CITY OF HUNTINGTON BEACH Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 4
Completed Precincts: 155 of 155
Vote Count Percentage
CATHY GREEN 31172 18.6%
JILL HARDY 28582 17.0%
GIL COERPER 24895 14.8%
JOE “JERSEY JOE” CARCHIO 24573 14.6%
FLORENCE “FLOSSIE” HORGAN 23709 14.1%
JOE SHAW 20632 12.3%
NORM “FIRECRACKER” WESTWELL 14282 8.5%

Carchio finished a great deal stronger in 2010 than he did in 2006 as evidenced by the above results. With Huntington Beach being the largest city in the district, it will make for a very interesting election night depending on voter turnout, considering Carchio does have a strong base of support in Huntington Beach.

Impressively, Carchio has the second-highest amount money, as of the last campaign finance report (over $67,000 cash on hand) but has not spent it on anything tangible from what I have seen. I have not heard about any direct mail, slate mail, signs, or large amount of precinct walking.

At one point during the Feet to the Fire candidate debate, I could have sworn that Carchio was ignored for 30 minutes straight, without saying a word. If he starts to spend his money on voter contact, it will make things very interesting.

I believe that Carchio will be extremely close to Mansoor on election night.

Michelle Steel

Calling Michelle Steel the front-runner would be an understatement. Steel, who is currently on the State Board of Equalization, leads in about every category that I have seen and has run an extremely efficient and well-organized campaign.

Steel has been elected twice to the California State Board of Equalization. Let’s take a brief look at her electoral history.

Results from 2010 (Republican Primary):

Member, State Board of Equalization 3rd District – Republican
Completed Precincts: 2084 of 2084
Vote Count Percentage
* MICHELLE STEEL (REP) 167,669 70.3%
VIC BAKER (REP) 70,852 29.7%

Results from 2006 (Republican Primary):

Member, State Board of Equalization 3rd District – Republican
Completed Precincts: 2076 of 2076
Vote Count Percentage
MICHELLE STEEL (REP) 77757 41.4%
RAY HAYNES (REP) 59023 31.4%
STEVE PETRUZZO (REP) 27788 14.8%
HAL “JIMBO” STYLES (REP) 12155 6.5%
LEWIS A. DA SILVA (REP) 11040 5.9%

It is first and foremost, important to note that Steel has appeared on the ballot twice to the entire 2nd Supervisorial District (and all of Orange County for that matter) thanks to complete overlap by her State Board of Equalization seat. Steel was impressive with both her margin of victory in 2010 as an incumbent and her victory over well-known Assemblyman Ray Haynes in 2006.

Steel has an impressive fundraising lead over all of her opponents combined (over $500,000 cash on hand) and has dominated the campaign when it comes to voter contact. I have seen at least 8 mailers that have arrived from her campaign, and it is clear that she is trying to end this thing in June by breaking 50% in the primary. She has also dominated slate mail, signs, endorsements, and precinct walking. Most impressively, she received the endorsement of the OC Register, which should move the needle a few points on election night.

Based on my opinion of the Feet to the Fire candidate debate, I would say Steel has a great knowledge of the issues that exist at the County of Orange, and she came across very well to voters. I was actually quite impressed with her accuracy when I fact-checked some of the numbers that she threw out to the audience at the candidate debate.


Prediction Time

Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict the winner will be

Michelle Steel (in June) – I think she is going to clear 50% of the vote.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , | 4 Comments »

Steel Finally Goes Negative

Posted by Marion Morrison on May 19, 2014

After nine pieces of fluff, Michelle Steel finally goes on the attack.  Steel hits Allan Mansoor for his “fee” creation and increase record during his time on the Costa Mesa City Council.  Using her official endorsement of the California Republican Assembly, Steel highlights that Mansoor failed to receive the support of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayer’s Association in his bid for Orange County Supervisor.  We’ll see if Mansoor cares to respond in the next couple days.  So far this household has yet to receive one piece of mail from him, aside from the letter I posted last week: https://ocpolitical.com/2014/05/11/mansoor-first-to-go-negative/

Stay tuned…

Steel Hit 2 of 2 Steel Hit 1 of 2

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