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Senator-Elect Moorlach’s Lead Shrinks by Insignificant 25 Votes – There Will Be No Run-Off

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 19, 2015

Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach
(R-Costa Mesa)

The Registrar of Voters has counted nearly all non-SB 29 ballots.  450 absentee ballots that arrived in the mail on Election Day have been counted, leaving only 100 left.  3,860 absentee ballots dropped off at the polls have been counted, leaving only 96 left.  All 181 Election Day paper ballots cast at the polls have been counted.  The 788 provisional ballots are still out there, so 4,481 ballots were counted in the fifth set of results, and only 984 of the non-SB 29 ballots remain.  2,440 SB 29 ballots arrived yesterday, and while there are still some SB 29 ballots that will arrive today and tomorrow, those will be fewer in number than 2,440.

The fifth results (yesterday’s count) show:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 36,393 50.3%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 31,870 44.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,490 3.4%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,589 2.2%

 

In the fifth results, Moorlach gained 2,185 votes, Wagner 1,883, Namazi 131, and Stewardson 221.  Looked at another way, Moorlach gained 2,185 votes (49.4%) while the other three won 2,235 (50.6%).  (61 undervotes/overvotes were counted yesterday, but they don’t count toward the total since they didn’t cast a valid vote.)

In the fourth results (final Election Night count), Moorlach was averting a run-off by 247 votes.  In the fifth results (yesterday’s count), Moorlach is averting a run-off by 222 votes.

So after counting 4,481 ballots yesterday, with 3,424 left, plus the small number of SB 29 ballots that will arrive today and tomorrow, it would take an unusual reversal of fortune for Moorlach for a run-off to occur.  In every iteration of ballot counts, Moorlach has dropped no lower than 49%.  For a run-off to occur, he’d have to drop to 44% or less in the remaining ballots – that’s not going to happen.

OC Political stands by our Election Night projection that there will be no run-off and John Moorlach will succeed Mimi Walters as State Senator for the 37th District.

With Moorlach’s victory, it appears the road to the California State Senate from Orange County runs through the Hall of Administration.  When was the last time an Orange County Supervisor lost a bid for the California State Senate? The last four Supervisors to run for Senate have been successful: Lou Correa in 2006, Patricia Bates and Janet Nguyen in 2014, and John Moorlach in 2015.

7 Responses to “Senator-Elect Moorlach’s Lead Shrinks by Insignificant 25 Votes – There Will Be No Run-Off”

  1. Chris. From your lips to God’s ears. We pray that there will not be a runoff election as we await the final final count.

  2. Greg Diamond said

    About that last bit: stop giving Shawn Nelson ideas about SD-29. You’re going to drive Tim Shaw to drink.

    • Robert Stanford said

      Given your own catastrophic attempt at that seat, I find your reply curious. Stick to blogging. Leave governing to the adults in the room.

      • Catastrophic? 44.9% when people were predicting 30-35% is “catastrophic”? I showed the party’s flag, averted an unopposed coronation, brought up some good issues, and did well enough to interest the state party enormously in pursuing the seat next year with someone better funded than myself. If you’re actually a political activist, that’s called “success.”

  3. […] Senator-Elect Moorlach’s Lead Shrinks by Insignificant 25 Votes – There Will Be No … […]

  4. It tales a big man with proven credentials to convince his peers in SAC that we simply can’t sustain our current debt burden. John’s challenge is to walk his peers thru the current dark tunnel into daylight to chip away at the unfunded obligations. Being realistic I often state that it takes time to turn a battleship around. We’ve taken the first step in Orange County.

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