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Final Election Predictions Before the Polls Close

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 5, 2012

Alright, polls close in five minutes.  No one reading this still has time to vote.  So here are my predictions.  For the record, these are not my preferences; these are my predictions; I love some of these results, and I hate some of these results; they are my predictions, not my preferences or endorsements.

Once the results are known, feel free to tell me how brilliantly accurate, dead wrong, or (more likely) somewhere in between my predictions are.

Republican Presidential Primary:
1. Mitt Romney
2. Ron Paul
3. Rick Santorum
4. Newt Gingrich
5. Buddy Roemer
6. Fred Karger

United State Senate:
1. Dianne Feinstein by a humongous margin.
2. Elizabeth Emken edging out #3.
3. Dan Hughes edging out #4.
4. Al Ramirez edging out #5.
5. Orly Taitz
6-24. Not even worth predicting

Congress 38th District:
1. Linda Sanchez
2. Jorge Robles
3. Benjamin Campos

Congress 39th District:
1. Ed Royce
2. Jay Chen
3. D’Marie Mulattieri

Congress 45th District:
1. John Campbell
2. Sukhee Kang
3. John Webb

Congress 46th District:
1. Loretta Sanchez
2. Jerry Hayden
3. Jorge Rocha
4. Pat Garcia
5. John Cullum

Congress 47th District:
1. Alan Lowenthal
2. Gary DeLong
3. Steve Kuykendall
4. Peter Mathews
5. Sanford Kahn
6. Steve Foley
7. Usha Shah
8. Jay Shah

Congress 48th District:
1. Dana Rohrabacher
2. Ron Varasteh
3. Alan Schlar

Congress 49th District:
1. Darrell Issa
2. Jerry Tetalman
3. Dick Eiden
4. Albin Novinec

Senate 29th District:
1. Bob Huff
2. Greg Diamond

Senate 37th District:
1. Mimi Walters
2. Steve Young

Assembly 55th District:
1. Curt Hagman
2. Gregg Fritchle

Assembly 65th District:
1. Chris Norby
2. Sharon Quirk-Silva

Assembly 68th District:
1. Don Wagner
2. Christina Avalos

Assembly 69th District:
1. Tom Daly
2. Jose “Joe” Moreno
3. Michele Martinez
4. Julio Perez
5. Francisco “Paco” Barragan

Assembly 72nd District:
1. Troy Edgar
2. Joe Dovinh
3. Long Pham
4. Travis Allen
5. Albert Ayala

Assembly 73rd District:
1. Diane Harkey
2. James Corbett

Assembly 74th District:
1. Robert Rush
2. Allan Mansoor
3. Leslie Daigle
No more than a 4% separation between first and third place.  Daigle beats Mansoor at the polls, but Mansoor’s absentee lead is large enough to keep him ahead of her.

Superior Court Judge Office 1:
1. Deborah Chuang with more than 70% of the vote
2. Eugene Jizhak

Member County Board of Education, Trustee Area 1:
1. Robert Hammond
2. Art Pedroza
3. Ken Nguyen
4. Eleazar Elizondo

Member County Board of Education, Trustee Area 3:
1. Ken Williams
2. Mary Galuska

County Supervisor, 1st District:
1. Janet Nguyen with more than 70% of the vote
2. Steve Rocco

County Supervisor, 3rd District:
1. Todd Spitzer
2. Deborah Pauly

All three Fullerton recalls pass.

Replacing Dick Jones:
1. Travis Kiger by a double-digit margin
2. Glenn Georgieff
3. Dorothy Birsic
4. Matthew Hakim
5. Roberta Reid

Replacing Don Bankhead:
1. Rick Alvarez by 2%
2. Greg Sebourn
3. Jane Rands
4. Paula Williams

Replacing Pat McKinley:
1. Barry Levinson by a single-digit margin
2. Doug Chaffee
3. Matt Rowe
4. Sean Paden

Prop 28: Yes by double digits

Prop 29: Yes by single digits.  It will lose among poll voters but will win the absentee vote by a large enough margin to pass.

Measure A: Yes, over 70%

Measure B: Yes, over 60%

One Response to “Final Election Predictions Before the Polls Close”

  1. […] here at OC Political predicted Daly vs. Moreno here, here, and here. (While we made several predictions that went wrong [like nearly everybody else, we failed to […]

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