OC Political

With the Primary Election certified, we now have clear breakdowns available in every race in the county.  First up is the 72nd Assembly District, which had the most distinct divisions in the different parts of the district.

First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:

So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the nine major parts of AD-72 (the seven cities of Fountain Valley, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Los Alamitos, Santa Ana, Seal Beach, and Westminster along with the two major unincorporated areas of Midway City and Rossmoor).

72nd Assembly District results in each city and major unincorporated area

(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics.  Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-72.  Huntington Beach is divided nearly 50/50 between AD-72 and AD-74.  A sliver of Santa Ana and the bulk of Garden Grove are in AD-72 while the bulk of Santa Ana and a sliver of Garden Grove are in AD-69.)

In each city, the candidate with the larger head came in first while the candidate with the smaller head came in second:

• Edgar came in first with Allen second in Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, Seal Beach, Los Alamitos, and Rossmoor.
• Pham came in first with Dovinh second in Westminster, Santa Ana, and Midway City.
• Pham came in first with Edgar second in Garden Grove.

Here’s their vote totals broken down visually by city:

Seal Beach single-handedly caused Edgar vs. Allen.  Without them, it would have been Edgar vs. Pham.  Same story with Huntington Beach.

Fountain Valley single-handedly caused the all-Republican matchup.  Without them, it would have been Edgar vs. Dovinh.

Here’s how each candidate performed in the various parts of the district:

• Edgar came in first or third in every part of the district, except for a second-place finish in Garden Grove and a fourth-place finish in Santa Ana.
• Pham came in first or fifth in every part of the district, except for a third-place finish in his home of Fountain Valley.
• Dovinh came in second or third in every part of the district, except for a fourth-place finish in Fountain Valley.
• Allen came in second or fourth in every part of the district, except for a fifth-place finish in Santa Ana.
• Ayala came in fourth or fifth in every part of the district, except for a third-place finish in Santa Ana.

Here’s a chart showing how the candidates did in each city and major unincorporated area:

Here are the areas sorted by voter turnout:

• Seal Beach: 36.2%
• Rossmoor: 34.1%
• Fountain Valley: 26.9%
• Los Alamitos: 25.5%
• Huntington Beach: 24.8%
• Westminster: 23.5%
• Garden Grove: 21.7%
• Midway City: 19.9%
• Santa Ana: 18.1%

Now let’s see that voter turnout list again, but with the top two candidates in each city noted:

• Seal Beach: Edgar, Allen
• Rossmoor: Edgar, Allen
• Fountain Valley: Edgar, Allen
• Los Alamitos: Edgar, Allen
• Huntington Beach: Edgar, Allen
• Westminster: Pham, Dovinh
• Garden Grove: Pham, Edgar
• Midway City: Pham, Dovinh
• Santa Ana: Pham, Dovinh

Had voter turnout been just a tad higher in Little Saigon or a tad lower in the non-Little Saigon parts of AD-72, Edgar would be facing off against fellow Republican Pham or Democrat Dovinh.

Looking at Pham’s first-or-fifth performance everywhere (outside of his home of Fountain Valley), it’s clear that Team Pham focused too much energy on Little Saigon.  Just a little bit more mail, walkers, or other effort in the non-Little Saigon areas of AD-72 would have been just enough to get him that 0.7% he needed to make the run-off against Edgar.

67% of the voters cast their ballots for the three Republicans while 33% cast their ballots for the two Democrats.  The majority of primary election voters (52.2%) cast their ballots for Dovinh, Pham, or Ayala.  Edgar and Allen combined to win 47.9% of the vote.

The path to victory for the two November contenders goes through Little Saigon, the Democrats, and the independents.  Between Edgar and Allen, whoever can get these large blocs of voters to swing behind them will be the next Assemblyman from the 72nd District.