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2012 Primary Election Predictions: 3rd Supervisorial District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 18, 2012

This race is a bit close to home since I am going to be represented by the winner of this race. Having seen this race up close and personal I hope that I can pull myself out of the echo chamber enough to make a fair analysis here.

I can promise that I will be a lot less biased than HBK and The Rock of OC who have quite frankly abused their blogging privileges a bit.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat is going to potentially get ugly in the media with both candidates appearing to have a bit of disdain for each other.

Both candidates are Republicans in what is considered a very conservative seat. Party affiliation does not matter all that much in this race as no affiliation is listed on the ballot (not that it matters in this race).

The good news is that this race will be over in June, because the Prop 14 rules do not apply to this County race and with only 2 candidates on the ballot one of them is guaranteed to get over 50% of the vote.

Candidates include:

Todd Spitzer the former Supervisor and Assemblyman from Orange. He is extremely popular in Orange especially because of his strong stance on public safety issues. His humongous war chest will make it easy for him to message to voters. On the flip side he made a huge mistake voting for 3% @ 50 which is an outrageous pension liability that has plagued our state.

Deborah Pauly the current Villa Park City Councilwoman who is extremely popular in TEA Party circles. She has not had the same fundraising luck as Todd, but she appears to have a decent number of volunteers working with her. On the flip side for her she made some very disappointing comments at a rally in Yorba Linda that have quite frankly done damage to the Republican Party.

The factors at play- This one is going to unfortunately be very slanted due to fundraising, name ID, campaign experience, and support all lining up behind Todd. Had Mark Bucher jumped into this race it could have been a really big fight (Also a huge waste in Republican resources).

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that winner will be:

Todd Spitzer

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

NOCCC’s Meet the Candidates Night: Central Committee, City Councils (Yorba Linda, Placentia, Fullerton, Anaheim), 3rd Supervisorial District, CD-45

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 13, 2012

North Orange County Conservative CoalitionThe North Orange County Conservative Coalition held a meet the candidates night last night in Anaheim Hills.  By my quick crowd estimate, I believe 75-100 people were present.

Desare’ Ferraro organized the meeting which was guest emceed by Orange County Register writer Brian Calle.  Calle also brought the students from the “Mass Media Ethics” course he teaches at Cal State Fullerton.

Deborah Pauly and John Webb were crowd pleasers.  Todd Spitzer sent a video camera to film Pauly.

I was shocked to see John Leos speak.

Here’s a run down of the remarks by various candidates (please note that I am paraphrasing what the candidates said; I haven’t run a fact-check on the numerical data several of them asserted; also, I was attempting to write as fast as candidates spoke, so apologies to any candidates for incorrect transcriptions; please feel free to comment below with corrections).

Central Committee

Oddly, candidates for the Republican Party Central Committee did not get a chance to speak.  They were only introduced by Calle, stood as a group at the front, and then sat back down.

The Central Committee candidates present were:

55th District

  • Jim Domen
  • Desare’ Ferraro
  • Connie Lanzisera
  • Robert Lauten
  • Brenda McCune (our OC Political blogger)
  • Dennis R. White

65th District

  • Greg Sebourn
  • Pat Shuff

68th District

  • James Brownfield
  • Deborah Pauly
  • Nick Wilson

There was a 12th candidate present, but I did not catch the candidate’s name, and the candidate failed to sign in on the NOCCC’s candidate sign-in sheet.

Yorba Linda City Council

After the Central Committee mass introduction, the first speakers were candidate for the Yorba Linda City Council.

Incumbent Councilwoman Nancy Rikel spoke first.  She spoke of her successful efforts on Measure B (any major zoning change that exceeds housing densities in Yorba Linda’s current zoning and/or General Plan must be approved by a majority vote), her battles against eminent domain, and her efforts to pass an ethics measure.  In response to a question from the audience, she described the process to determine Yorba Linda’s police contract.

Candidate Jim Domen spoke second.  He spoke of his co-founding of NOCCC.  He also described how he became President of his homeowners association.  He felt it was analogous to government: before his presidency, the HOA kept raising dues, similarly to the government raising taxes; during his presidency, he opposed raising dues and used his business experience to cut spending, as government should cut spending instead of raising taxes.  He also spoke of his background as a Yorba Linda native and his international business and economics education.  In response to a question from the audience, he stated that he supported doing price comparisons between different police agencies in determining the Yorba Linda police contract.

Placentia City Council

Incumbent Councilman Jeremy Yamaguchi (currently serving as Mayor) made a joke about his council service giving him gray hair (he’s 23), and then spoke of his record fighting for fiscally conservative policies, protection of private property, reduction of business regulations, and holding the line against unions.  He noted his battle against a strange proposal to regulate Placentia garage sales and against borrowing money for a parking structure for the Placentia train station for a train that doesn’t yet exist.  In response to a question from the audience, he stated the only Councilmember to not vote for forming an Economic Development Commission was Connie Underhill, who he noted had been on the Placentia City Council for nearly his entire life.

Fullerton Recall Candidates

Greg Sebourn, who is running in the race to replace Don Bankhead, spoke of the illegal water fee that spiked residents water bills by 10%, which went to the general fund.  He stated that 80% of the general fund goes to employee pensions, salaries, and benefits.

Barry Levinson, who is running in the race to replace Pat McKinley, spoke of how ill-prepared recall targets Bankhead, McKinley, and Dick Jones seem at meetings; it seems to him that the trio don’t even read their council agendas before showing up to meetings.  He spoke of a Stanford study that found Fullerton’s unfunded pension liability is $500 million.  He spoke of Fullerton being targetted by a dozen lawsuits that could cost the city $100 million, thanks to McKinley (police chief until shortly before he ran for Council) and the Fullerton Police Department.  He noted those two figures totaled $600 million, while Fullerton’s general fund is $65 million.

Rick Alvarez, who is running in the race to replace Don Bankhead, spoke of his family’s immigrant background.  He said he is running as a uniter not a divider.  He also noted he is a Planning Commissioner and Traffic Commissioner.

Anaheim City Council

Brian Chuchua spoke of his opposition to the plan to permit the GardenWalk Hotel to retain $158 million (80%) of the transient occupancy tax (TOT) the hotel collects while the City does not allow any other hotel to do the same.  He stated the transient occupancy tax is 43% of Anaheim’s general fund.  He said he was removed as an Anaheim Chamber Ambassador due to this position on this issue.  In response to a question from the audience, he said he is opposed to the high-speed rail project.

I was shocked by who spoke next.

John Leos opened with, “Talk about walking into the lion’s den.”  He noted that his family immigrated to Anaheim 100 years ago.  He graduated from Canyon High School (author’s note: Emami and I are also Canyon grads), which is literally a block away from the site of the NOCCC meeting.  He stated he is a labor union member, and labor is very divided on the $158 million GardenWalk Hotel TOT plan, but that Leos himself opposed the plan.

Third District Supervisor

While being filmed by a representative of the Todd Spitzer campaign, Deborah Pauly spoke to the NOCCC.  She stated the Board of Supervisors needs “at least one limited government fiscal conservative who represents the people.”  She then noted the cameraman, stared straight into the camera and declared her opponent to be a “retread, big government, special interest career politician.”  She pointed to Spitzer’s brochure which has the word integrity right under his picture and stated his consultant believed Spitzer has an intergrity problem.  She stated Spitzer waves around a flyer showing he got an “A” rating from the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association during his tenure in the Assembly, but she stated Spitzer sent a $1000 check to to get their endorsement, but the check was refused, as the HJTA “cannot be bought.”  She then showed a letter from HJTA endorsing her, not Spitzer, for the Third Supervisorial District seat.  She noted in December 2001 that Spitzer not only voted for 3%@50, but he actually made the motion to pass 3%@50 during his previous stint as Supervisor.  She disputed his statements that no one understood the costs of 3%@50 at the time, as she pointed to a November 2001 actuarial report that was in the Board of Supervisors agenda that she stated warned about the costs of implementing 3%@50.

In response to a question from the audience about the well-known video of her speaking in Yorba Linda, Pauly said she was not speaking about “peaceful moderate Muslims” but of two specific men from the Muslim brotherhood, including Malik Ali.

In response to a question from the audience, she noted that Supervisors John Moorlach and Shawn Nelson had not endorsed either candidate in the Third Supervisorial District and that Supervisors Pat Bates and Janet Nguyen endorsed Spitzer because “apparently, they like money.”

In response to a bizarre question from the audience about the Republican Party equalizing funding for candidates to stop multimillionaire candidates (author’s note: I think the audience member mistakenly thought the $1 million Spitzer warchest was Spitzer’s personal wealth rather than the fact that Spitzer raised all of that money and is not independently wealthy), Pauly stated Scott Baugh was “falling all over” himself to endorse Spitzer.  Pauly noted that voters don’t like the feeling of being purchased in an election.  She praised the Stop Special Interest Money Now ballot initiative.

In response to a question from the audience, Pauly stated she has not decided on Laura’s Law, as there needs to be a balance between helping people with great need and the potential to abuse the law with false mental health allegations.

Spitzer’s cameraman spoke next, stating he’s a volunteer.  He spoke of Spitzer helping his family on a crime issue.  He stated that he (the cameraman not Spitzer) is a Coptic Christian and that the Muslim Brotherhood is in Egypt not the United States.  He stated Spitzer was speaking at the Mission Viejo Tea Party on Monday (a Tea Party Patriot organizer in the audience shouted out it was a false tea party) and invited NOCCC to attend.  The cameraman also invited the audience to attend Spitzer’s open house on Tuesday.

In response to a question from the audience, the cameraman could not confirm or deny if Spitzer would serve a full four-year term.

In response to a question from the audience, the cameraman stated Spitzer was not present due to a scheduling conflict with a long-scheduled open coffee in Irvine.

45th Congressional District

John Webb spoke of his goal of changing the tax structure, restraining the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and supporting energy independence to ensure “no more wars for oil.”

In response to a question from the audience, Webb said he is personally opposed to the California Air Resources Board, calling it a bad idea from the 1960s when “we smoked dope.”  He, however, stated he was for states’ rights, implying Congress should not interfere with CARB.

In response to a question from the audience, Webb stated that if elected, he would be the sole member of Congress from Orange County who has combat experience.  He cited his military record, his record as a robbery/homicide detective, and his business record.  He stated President Barack Obama has committed impeachable offenses.

In response to a question from the audience, he stated the differences between himself and incumbent Congressman John Campbell is that Campbell voted fro TARP, Cash for Clunkers, and Sarbanes-Oxley expansion while Webb would have voted against those actions.  Webb also stated Campbell was one of only two Congressmen to vote against the STOCK Act.  Webb also said he heard a rumor that Campbell introduced legislation to control the type of bait used in Montana.

In response to a question from the audience, Webb said he would do not just town hall meetings but would go to voters’ homes.

In response to a question from the audience, Webb said he would fly on commercial airlines between Washington, DC and Orange County if elected, very likely on Southwest Airlines.

U.S. Senate

Robert Lauten spoke about wanting to revive the Glass-Steagall Act, to declare U.S. debt fictional, to implement a Hamiltonian economic system, and wanting to abolish the Federal Reserve.  He also accused “State Treasurer Richard Citron” of causing the 1994 Orange County bankruptcy (author’s note: for the record, it was County Treasurer-Tax Collector Robert Citron).

The audience looked at Lauten like he was completely nuts.

Wrap Up

All of the above was done in 90 minutes.  The program was slated for 60 minutes and was running on schedule until the Third Supervisorial District and 45th Congressional District ran over time and took up nearly half the program.

(Disclaimer related to Fullerton recall section above: In the interest of full disclosure, I should note my day job is working in the Fullerton office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who served on the Fullerton City Council from 1984-2002.  One of my co-workers in the office is Fullerton City Councilman Bruce Whitaker, who was elected in 2010 and is not a target of the recall.)

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, 45th Congressional District, Anaheim, Fullerton, Placentia, Republican Central Committee, Yorba Linda | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

David Overtaking Goliath: Pauly Raises More Than Double the Money Spitzer Raised in 2012

Posted by The Rock of OC on April 11, 2012

You read that headline right: Deborah Pauly raised more money than the vaunted Todd Spitzer money machine in 2012.  Not just more, but more than double.

According to the latest campaign finance reports, Spitzer raised $3,100 while Pauly raised $7,578.  That’s right: David raised more than double what Goliath did.

This is a clear sign that the momentum is shifting toward Deborah Pauly.  True conservatives are holding their money back from special-interest Spitzer.  Pauly’s gain in momentum is clearly causing union-supporter Spitzer’s money to dry up.

The donors are beginning to realize that the people don’t want bought and paid career politicians who do the bidding of their masters.   They are tired of Orange County being pillaged by the special interests that suck at the public teat.

The people’s eyes are open, and the donors realize it.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, Fundraising | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

Deborah Pauly + Campaign Finance = Uh-Oh!!!!!

Posted by HBK on April 9, 2012

Hiring a campaign treasurer is not a bad idea for a political campaign to do. Some people look to hire Lisa Ray, Kelly Lawler, or somebody else that is not Kindee Durkee. If a candidate decides not to hire a treasurer the forms are fairly easy to figure out. However, in some situations you see certain campaigns finance reports that are a train wreck.


Deborah Pauly had some issues with her campaign finance report and also some other interesting factoids that I will point out.

1) The report was due on March 22nd yet she signed her form on March 29th. Tis shows that she was a week late in even putting her form together and based on the report and the lack of activity it is confusing as to what could have possibly taken her so long.

2) The form was turned in over a week late on March 30th. This will likely draw a fine from the FPPC as this is likely to have been forwarded to the appropriate desk at the FPPC from the Spitzer team. Again, why does a form with so few contributions require so much time to put together.

3) She has less than $2400 cash on hand. This should be pretty self-explanatory to readers.

4) $450 contribution received from Marilyn Davenport … yes, the same Marilyn Davenport who sent out the racist Obama email.

5) One person involved with CRA who has seen this has commented that it is possible that she purposely turned in her form late so that she wouldn’t have to explain her lack of support during the CRA endorsement meeting.

Todd is clearly going to win this race, the question really comes down to what the margin of victory is on election day.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , | 4 Comments »

OC’s Best Ballot Designations

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 5, 2012

Ballot

Ballot designations are the only piece of information that appear directly on the ballot other than a candidate's name (and party in some - but not all - races).

Last week, I wrote about OC’s worst ballot designations. In this post, I’ll be looking at OC’s best ballot designations.

As I said last week, “The most important thing a candidate does in a campaign may well be selecting a ballot designation.  That little phrase underneath a candidate’s name are the last piece of information that voters see before casting their ballots.  In low-profile races (like Central Committee, where you can’t even get a candidate’s statement in the sample ballot), that little phrase may well be the only piece of information that voters see before casting their ballots.”

Elected officials’ ballot designations are an inherent advantage, so I’m excluding the designations of elected officials.

OC’s Ten Best Ballot Designations (for Non-Incumbents/Non-Elected Officials)

  1. Retired Navy Captain (Emily Sanford in the 74th District Republican Central Committee)
    Retired Naval Officer (Norm Dickinson in the 73rd District Republican Central Committee)
    Who could possibly vote against the military?  People have a deep respect for career military officers, as these people have served their country, have substantial leadership experience, understand complex government bodies, and are educated.
  2. Deputy Attorney General (Peggy Huang in the 55th District Republican Central Committee)
    Voters love prosecutors.  Prosecutors put criminals in prison.  Deputy District Attorneys rarely lose elections.  Deputy Attorney General is higher on the food chain, so it should be even more impressive to voters.
  3. Deputy District Attorney (Cyril Yu in the 74th District Democratic Central Committee)
    See above.
  4. Retired Police Commander (Albert Ayala in AD-72)
    Voters love law enforcement because the police catch criminals.  A retired police commander has served his community, has leadership experience, and understands dealing with government.
  5. Law Enforcement Officer (Jorge Robles in CD-38)
    As above, voters love law enforcement because they catch criminals and have served the community.
  6. Businessman/Victims Advocate (Todd Spitzer in the 3rd Supervisorial District)
    How on earth do you vote against a victims advocate?  That’d be like voting against victims.
  7. Businesswoman/Childrens Advocate (Brenda McCune in the 55th District Republican Central Committee)
    How on earth do you vote against a childrens advocate?  That’d be like voting against the children.  (Of course, we’d expect all OC Political bloggers to have great ballot designations when running for office, and she’s done just that.)
  8. Retired Constitutional Litigator (Jonathan Adler in the 74th District Democratic Central Committee)
    Voters hate most lawyers as ambulance chasers and corporate raiders.  However, there are two types of lawyers people like: the prosecutors who put criminals away and the constitutional lawyers who battle for constitutional causes and rights (note that Spitzer and McCune went with “Advocate” instead of “Lawyer” – it’s the same job but “Advocate” sounds friendlier than “Lawyer”).
  9. Emergency Physician (Bill Honigman in the 73rd District Democratic Central Committee)
    Doctors improve health.  Emergency room doctors save lives.  People vote for lifesavers.
  10. Charitable Organization President (Usha Shah in CD-47)
    Too many people who work for non-profit organizations run with “Non-Profit Organization” or “Non-Profit Group” in their ballot designation.  “Charitable Organization” brings happy thoughts that make voters feel warm and fuzzy.  “Charitable” just sounds better than “Non-Profit” even though 90% of the time they’re the same thing.

Interestingly, half of the above are lawyers.  Note that none of these lawyers used “lawyer” in their designation.  None used “Attorney” except when it had key modifiers to become “Deputy Attorney General” or “Deputy District Attorney” instead.  These candidates realize voters don’t like lawyers, but they’re smart enough to realize people like prosecutors and advocates.

Lessons from the group above:

  • Non-prosecutor lawyers should generally run as advocates.
  • People like the military, law enforcement, and doctors.
  • When possible, “Charitable” should be used instead of “Non-Profit” to attract voters.

Best Pair of Ballot Designations in a Two-Person Race: 3rd Supervisorial District

  • Businessman/Victims Advocate (Todd Spitzer)
  • Councilwoman, City of Villa Park (Deborah Pauly)

Spitzer’s designation was #6 on my list of the ten best ballot designations in OC.  Pauly’s designation was ineligible to be on the list due to my “elected officials’ ballot designations are an inherent advantage” rule.  Therefore, this race inherently has the best pair of ballot designations in any two-person race.

Best Set of Ballot Designations in One Race Featuring 3+ Candidates: AD-72

  • Small Business Owner (Travis Allen – Republican)
  • Retired Police Commander (Albert Ayala – Democrat)
  • City Commissioner/Businessman (Joe Dovinh – Democrat)
  • Member, Orange County Board of Education (Long Pham – Republican)
  • Businessman/Mayor (Troy Edgar – Republican)

I noted last week that the five candidates in CD-46 has the worst set of ballot designations in any one race.  Well, another set of five candidates, this time in AD-72, has the best set of ballot designations in any one race with three or more candidates.

Every single one of these candidates maximized their occupations and political positions in their descriptions of themselves.

  • Allen runs a wealth management firm.  “Wealth Management Businessowner” could be offputting to some voters.  He wisely (and accurately) chose to describe himself as a “Small Business Owner” because his wealth management firm is a small business, and he does own it.  Plus people on both sides of the aisle respect people who own small businesses; indeed, the majority of Americans work for small businesses.
  • Ayala’s “Retired Police Commander” came in at #4 on my list of best ballot designations.  When the most hopeless candidate makes the best ballot designations list, you know you’ve got a fun race.
  • Dovinh’s “City Commissioner/Businessman” maximizes his appointed political role and takes advantage of his job as a general contractor.  The “City Commissioner” part wisely leaves off a specific city making it possible he could be a city commissioner in any of the cities in AD-72: Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, Seal Beach, Westminster, Garden Grove, Los Alamitos, or Santa Ana.  (He’s a Garden Grove Planning Commissioner for the record.)  Additionally, there are cities out there (though not in California) that call their city elected officials commissioners instead of councilmembers.  For voters looking for candidates with private sector experience, Dovinh’s “Businessman” designation appeals to them.
  • Pham’s “Member, Orange County Board of Education” takes advantage of my “elected officials’ ballot designations are an inherent advantage” rule.  Not only that, he takes advantage of the Elections Code regulation that allows sitting elected officials to exceed three words in a ballot designation if they use their elected title as their sole ballot designation (this counts as a five-word designation; remember, “Orange County” is legally one word for purposes of the Elections Code).  Further, Pham is one of a small group of elected officials whose elected position includes “Orange County” in the title.  Since the entirety of AD-72 is in Orange County, his title sounds like he could represent all the people of AD-72 (for the record, he represents Fountain Valley, Garden Grove, Santa Ana, and Tustin).
  • Edgar’s “Businessman/Mayor” takes advantage of his status owning two businesses and the fact that he is currently Mayor of Los Alamitos.  Edgar is the only candidate in AD-72 who didn’t maximize the word limit, and he also failed to use the stronger “Businessowner” over “Businessman” in his designation: I would have tweaked this to be “Orange County Businessowner/Mayor” or “Small Businessowner/Mayor” though this is still a strong ballot designation.  Everything I said about Dovinh’s ballot designation applies to Edgar, with the added advantage that the mayor is leader of a city while a commissioner is just one of several officials.  Edgar’s not a directly-elected mayor; he’s mayor in one of those cities (specifically, Los Alamitos) where mayor is rotated on an annual basis among the councilmembers.  However, for ballot designation purposes, it doesn’t matter if you’re directly-elected or rotated into the position, as long as you’re the mayor when you’re running.

So last week, I wrote about OC’s worst ballot designations. In this post, these are Orange County’s best ballot designations.

Posted in 38th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 47th Congressional District, 72nd Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Steve Rocco To Benefit From Independent Expenditures

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 1, 2012

In a shocking turn of events, candidate for Orange County Supervisor Steve Rocco is expected to benefit from numerous independent expenditures. The independent expenditures are expected to come from the Heinz Ketchup Company. Candidates in the 3rd District race Todd Spitzer and Deborah Pauly are both disappointed that Heinz will not be picking a side in this race.

Todd Spitzer, Deborah Pauly, Janet Nguyen, and Steve Rocco

The main reason for Rocco getting the support is his willingness to spell the product name as ketchup and not catsup.

However, concerned about Rocco being controlled by the special interest group, Kraft foods has apparently dumped money into an I.E. account to help support Janet Nguyen.

Disclaimer: This is an April Fools Day post.

Posted in Orange County Board of Supervisors | Tagged: , , , | 2 Comments »

Good Ole Boys Pervert Conservativism

Posted by The Rock of OC on March 27, 2012

In a shocking defeat for real conservatives, the good ole boys seized the endorsement of the CRA for their big-government retread, Todd Spitzer.

Hope for conservatives got a bit bleaker as the special interests gained control of the group that is supposed to be the conscience of the Republican Party.  In the Board of Supervisors race, Deborah Pauly is the only proven limited government, fiscal conservative who will represent the people, but in a perversion of Republican ideals, the CRA endorsed career politician Spitzer, who is in bed with the unions.

In this David and Goliath battle, Pauly is the true conservative and special-interest Spitzer is the candidate of the unions.  He is a RINO and backed costly pension deals when he was previously a Supervisor.  He will not cut the size of local government or reform pensions because he’s one of the guys who caused Orange County’s three-billion-dollar unfunded pension liabilities!

Special-interest Spitzer is slick and polished.  He’s a very connected career politician who’s part of the good ole boys who run Orange County.

The time is ripe to save Orange Coutny from the career politicians who are bought and paid for to do the bidding of their masters who cram their campaign bank accounts with tens of thousands of special interest dollars.

The CRA missed its chance, but the people know the truth.  They will not allow Orange County to be raped by the special interests gorging at the public trough.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , | 7 Comments »

CRA Rejects Pauly’s Threats, Endorses Spitzer in Upset

Posted by HBK on March 27, 2012

In a victory for civility over coercion and conservativism over fringe elements, the California Republican Assembly endorsed Todd Spitzer over Deborah Pauly in an amazing upset.

Pauly could not conduct herself with dignity at the CRA endorsing meeting. Her campaign strategy is simple: attack Spitzer and hope that no one sees she does not have the experience or temperament to be an Orange County Supervisor.  On the other hand, Spitzer has the qualities necessary to work with others as a team, work with others to solve problems, and work with others for Orange County.   Spitzer clearly demonstrated this attitude and perspective during the CRA endorsing meeting: Pauly is a divider; Spitzer brings people together with dignity and respect to carry Orange County forward.

Pauly spoke about her role in forming the Orange-Villa Park CRA unit while Spitzer is the only candidate who is currently a member of his local CRA unit: Orange-Villa Park.  Why isn’t Pauly still in the Orange-Villa Park CRA unit?

As a long-time CRA activist, shouldn’t the endorsement have been a shoo-in for Pauly?  It’s clear the people who know her best know she does not have the qualities to be an Orange County Supervisor, which is why the CRA backed Spitzer in an upset for the endorsement.

The more Pauly spoke, the more support she lost.  In the first round, Spitzer led Pauly 14-6-2.  In the second round, Pauly lost half her supporters and one of the neutral voters went to Spitzer, giving him the endorsement 18-3-1.

Why is that?  It’s simple: the CRA allowed each candidate to speak for a minute before the second round of voting, and in her speech, Pauly decided to threaten the CRA.  When she’s trying to persuade an organization to support her, she resorts to threats.  This is the same way she conducts herself in meetings.  If she’s threatening people to get an endorsement, imagine what she’d do on the Board of Supervisors!

The CRA is the largest and most conservative grassroots organization in the state and represents the everyday values of conservative voters.  This proves that Spitzer is the conservative candidate, and Pauly is just a fringe candidate.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , | 6 Comments »

OC CRA Endorsing Convention Recap

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 24, 2012

For those of you who don’t want to wade through my live play-by-play of the OC CRA endorsing convention, here’s a list of all the endorsements from this morning.

(By the way, the play-by-plays with the most fireworks were in the Spitzer-Pauly race for the 3rd Supervisorial District and the Edgar-Pham battle for the endorsement in the 72nd Assembly District.)

Congressional Endorsements:

  • CD-38: LA County CRAs will sponsor that endorsing convention
  • CD-39: Congressman Ed Royce by voice vote
  • CD-45: No endorsement (effectively, a 50/50 split occurred, as Congressman John Campbell blocked businessman John Webb’s  endorsement without being present)
  • CD-46: Businessman Jerry Hayden won 11 of the 12 votes cast in the first round.
  • CD-47: No endorsement actually got more votes than any candidate.
  • CD-48: Congressman Dana Rohrabacher by voice vote
  • CD-49: Congressman Darrell Issa by voice vote
State Senate Endorsements
  • SD-29: Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff endorsed by voice vote
  • SD-37: Senator Mimi Walters endorsed by voice vote

State Assembly Endorsements

  • AD-55: Assemblyman Curt Hagman endorsed by voice vote
  • AD-65: Assemblyman Chris Norby endorsed by voice vote
  • AD-68: Assemblyman Don Wagner endorsed by voice vote
  • Ad-69: No endorsement
  • AD-72: Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar captured the endorsement in the second round over Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham, who actually led in the first round of balloting
  • AD-73: Assemblywoman Diane Harkey endorsed by voice vote
  • AD-74: Allan Mansoor endorsed by voice vote

Supervisorial Endorsements

  • 1st Supervisorial District: Supervisor Janet Nguyen endorsed by voice vote (of course, her sole opponent is convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco, who is registered as no party preference)
  • 3rd Supervisorial District: Todd Spitzer endorsed in second round over Deborah Pauly after a fairly spirited discussion

Orange County Board of Education Endorsements

  • Area 1: Robert Hammond endorsed by voice vote
  • Area 3: OCBE Trustee Ken Williams endorsed by voice vote

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working for Assemblyman Chris Norby. Also, OCBE candidate Robert Hammond and OCBE Trustee Ken Williams are clients of Custom Campaigns. Norby, Hammond, and Williams were all endorsed by voice vote.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Live from the OC CRA Convention…

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 24, 2012

We’ll be live-blogging (for updates, refresh this post) from the OC CRA endorsing convention at the Turtle Rock Community Center in Irvine…

Format will be 3 minutes from the candidate and 3 minutes of Q&A for each race.

Mike Munzing (South OC) and Baron Night (Buena Park) appointed sergeants-at-arms. Host Jeff Lalloway (Greater Irvine) appointed parliamentarian.

Races will be voted in the order of Federal, State, and County, with slight adjustments allowed to accommodate candidate schedules.

Republican incumbents with no Republican opponent will be done by voice vote. All other races will be done by secret ballot.

Endorsements require a 2/3 vote.

In a three-candidate race, the candidate with the least votes is dropped in the first round. The remaining two candidates will contest the second and third rounds. In a two-candidate race, both candidates remain for all three rounds.

No race will go beyond three rounds, unless there are five or more Republican candidates (there are no races that have five or more candidates being considered today).

79 of an eligible 114 delegates are present representing 19 units.

First race up: AD-74
Assemblyman Allan Mansoor is here; Leslie Daigle is not. Both were invited.

Mansoor ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: CD-47
Steve Kuykendall is here; Gary DeLong is not. Both were invited. No one discussed the two minor Republican candidates.

In response to a Baron Night question, Kuykendall said he would have opposed TARP.

In response to a shouted question from a member of a CRA unit that is not eligible to vote in CD-47, Kuykendall said he is pro-choice.

Secret ballot will be used in CD-47. Westminster, Garden Grove, Stanton, and Buena Park RAs are voting.

No one reached 2/3 in round one: 5 Kuykendall, 3 DeLong, 7 no endorsement, and 1 other.

No one reached 2/3 in round two: exact totals not announced.

No one reached 2/3 in round three: exact totals not announced.

NO ENDORSEMENT in CD-47.

Next up: OCBE 3
Incumbent Ken Williams is here.

Williams is ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up will be the first real fireworks: 3rd Supervisorial District

Todd Spitzer will speak first; Deborah Pauly elected to speak second.

Spitzer points to his legislative record, his ability to not insult or divide people, his longtime status as a member of his CRA unit in Orange-Villa Park, his vast Republican endorsement list; his HJTA record; he says of his 3% at 50 vote: “That vote was a mistake.”

In response to a question from Ray Grangoff, Spitzer opposes pension spiking and says local employees should be forced to pay the employee contribution to the pension. (State public employees pay the employee contribution while taxpayers pay the employer contribution. Taxpayers pay both the employer and employee contribution for local public employees.)

In response to a question by Chris Emami, Spitzer opposes the Moorlach term limit extension.

Pauly speaks of her role in creating the Orange-Villa Park CRA unit. She speaks of her role in Prop 8. She speaks of good and evil. She has visited many CRA units. She says she is the true conservative.

In response to a question by Chris Emami, Pauly opposes the Moorlach term limit extension and notes her opposition to the Villa Park term limit extension.

In response to a question by Ken Williams, who expressed concerns about statesmanship, personal attacks, and offensiveness, Pauly argues only those who oppose her principles should be offended. She notes Spitzer’s 3% at 50 vote (though she doesn’t say his name).

In response to a question from Jeff Lalloway, who expressed concerns that Pauly’s Council colleagues all endorsed Spitzer, Pauly says she has “been very difficult to work with” because she opposed a 5% pay raise for city employees; she opposed spending taxes on a mural; she takes issues to the people when the council fails because “they don’t like it that they are called upon the carpet by a woman.”

Secret ballot on this one.

Irvine, Tustin, Orange-Villa Park (including yours truly), and Anaheim RAs are voting.

No endorsement in first round, as 15 votes were needed: 14 Spitzer, 6 Pauly, 2 no endorsement.

Pauly says there is no hope for conservatives if CRA doesn’t vote for her.

Spitzer says he is a pro-life Christian who is offended at being accused of not being a social conservative. He says Pauly threatened the CRA. He went over time by noting Pauly’s non-endorsement by Villa Park City Council.

Second round voting.

Spitzer ENDORSED by ballot.
18 Spitzer, 3 Pauly, and 1 no endorsement.

Next up: CD-48

Congressman Dana Rohrabacher is not present due to scheduling conflict.

Fountain Valley CRA unit member objects to Rohrabacher supporting allowing physician-assisted suicide.

Dana Rohrabacher ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: AD-55

Assemblyman Curt Hagman ENDORSED by voice vote with no discussion.

Next up: CD-46
Jorge Rocha speaks first. He talks about Loretta Sanchez’s long-term incumbency, education issues, and jobs.

Jerry Hayden speaks second. He talks about his birth in CD-46 and living in every city in CD-46. He speaks of his job as a financial advisor and his family. He speaks of jobs, energy, education, and religious freedoms. He wants to repeal the Obama healthcare plan, build the Keystone pipeline, and expand domestic oil production. He notes his endorsement by the CA Republican Party and the Family Action PAC.

Pat Garcia is the third and final speaker in CD-46. He speaks of the Huntington Beach escrow company that he and his wife own. He reads his notes about limited government and personal freedom. He loses his place at one point.

In a question from an Anaheim RA member, Garcia supports decriminalization of drug use.

In a question from a Corona Del Mar RA member, Garcia supports abolishing the Fed.

In a question from Lucille Kring of Anaheim RA, Garcia is pro-life.

Secret ballot on this one.

Santa Ana, Garden Grove, Anaheim, and Orange-Villa Park are voting.

Hayden ENDORSED with 11 of 12 ballots cast.

Next up: OCBE 1

Robert Hammond speaks of Prop 13. He’s been in education for years. He taught to Navajos and Apaches. He’s taught in public schools, private schools, and home schools. He served as a Marine. He opposes tax increases.

Hammond ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: CD-45

Challenger John Webb is here. Congressman John Campbell declined the invitation.

Webb speaks of his military and business background. He speaks of Campbell’s votes on TARP, Cash for Clunkers, Sarbanes-Oxley expansion, Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, and the STOCK Act. Webb pledges to serve only three terms.

In response to a Corona Del Mar RA delegate’s question, Webb states he is pro-life.

Secret ballot on this one.

In the first round, there’s a tie: 14 votes each for John Campbell and John Webb. There were 2 abstentions.

Webb speaks of OC being the “conservative capital” and of jobs.

In the second round (20 votes required for endorsement):
15 for John Campbell, 14 for John Webb, and 1 abstention.

Webb speaks of Campbell’s statements that he knew what the people didn’t. Webb claims there’s 4 Ed Royces becuase Royce is all over Orange County. Webb says Campbell rarely shows up.

In the final round (19 votes required for endorsement):
14 for John Webb, 13 for John Campbell, and 1 abstention.

NO ENDORSEMENT in CD-45.

Next up: CD-49
Congressman Darrell Issa is the only Republican running but is not present.

North San Diego, Saddleback, and South OC RA are eligible to vote but North San Diego is not present.

Issa is ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: CD-39
Congressman Ed Royce sent two representatives (Zonya Townsend and Steve Sarkis) due to a scheduling conflict involving constituent town halls. Royce is the sole Republican in the race.

Royce is ENDORSED by voice vote.

Royce arrives during the AD-72 voting but was already endorsed.

Royce is asked to speak anyway. He speaks of his efforts for Ronald Reagan over Gerald Ford in 1976. He speaks of Reagan’s battle against Communism. Royce credits CRA for giving Reagan his political start. He speaks of Reagan’s success in the (according to the Wall Street Journal) “Orange Countization of the United States.” He wants to keep Nancy Pelosi out of the Speakership, wants to oust Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leadership, and wants to see Marco Rubio as Vice President.

Next up (expect fireworks): AD-72

Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham is first to speak. He attacks Ed Royce for trying to whip the vote in AD-72 for Troy Edgar. Pham notes he’s a long-time member of the CRA and is the only AD-72 candidate who has never been a Democrat nor given money to Democrats. Pham also says he’s not beholden to Mike Schroeder, Scott Baugh, and Ed Royce. Pham also notes the influence of the Vietnamese vote.

Matt Harper asks about Prop 13, the no new taxes pledge, and his voting record on taxes. Pham says he has not received the pledge but will sign it. He supports keeping the 2/3 vote. He says he will vote against taxes.

In response to a question from a delegate, there was a lot of confusion over Stop Special Interest Money Now. it sounds like he supports the measure.

Troy Edgar speaks next. He notes he’s a US Navy veteran, business owner, and Mayor of Los Alamitos. He speaks of his business career. He speaks of his first political involvement in 2006 when he ran (successfully) for City Council.

Matt Harper asks about Edgar’s endorsements. Ed Royce, Dana Rohrabacher, Jim Silva, Tom Harman, 14 Assembly Members, most mayors and councilmembers (including Harper) endorsed Edgar.

In response to a Fountain Valley RA delegate question, Edgar admits he was a Democrat until 2006. He blames his Inland Empire union-member father. Edgar says he voted for Reagan and has never given money to a Democrat.

In response to a question, he states he is in favor of Stop Special Interest Money and the death penalty. He states he is pro-life.

Travis Allen did not send a representative.

Secret ballot on this one.

The vote was invalidated because 17 people voted despite there being only 16 eligible delegates.

Good catch by ballot counters John W. Briscoe and Jay Petersen.

First round vote (requires 12 votes for endorsement):
9 Pham, 7 Edgar, and 1 for Allen.

A 5-minute caucus was approved for AD-72 after the first-round vote was announced.

Edgar states he’s never given money to a Democrat and states he is a dedicated Republican.

Pham blames the “special interest” of Ed Royce for getting Edgar out of the CD-47 race and into the AD-72 race. He says, “CRA should not be a rubber stamp for a Congressman.”

Second-round vote (Allen is dropped for having the fewest votes):
12 for Edgar, 3 for Pham, and 2 abstentions.

Edgar ENDORSED after two rounds.

Next up: AD-65

I represented Chris Norby, noting his record on abolishing redevelopment agencies (applause line) and the fact that his sole opponent is a Democrat.

Norby ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: SD-29

Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff sent no representative but is the sole Republican running.

Huff ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: 1st Supervisorial District

Supervisor Janet Nguyen sent Steve Sarkis as his representative due to an all-day district event.

Nguyen ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: Judicial Race and Central Committee

Baron Night moves and Dennis Catron seconds to authorize the council of CRA unit presidents to endorse in the judicial race and the Central Committee races.

Dale Tyler made a motion to require Central Committee endorsements be made by the CRA units in regional caucuses themselves rather than the presidents’ council. Karl Heft notes Tyler’s motion violates the CRA statewide by-laws.

The Night motion passes by VOICE VOTE.

Next up: SD-37

Senator Mimi Walters thanks CRA for its support in all her previous legislative races. She notes she is one of the most conservative State Senators in the state. She says she was “drawn out of my district,” and “I live, or rather, lived, in Laguna Niguel, and I now live in Irvine.” She fought to successfully qualify the referendum to overturn the Senate districts.

Walters ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: AD-68

Assemblyman Don Wagner notes that the pundits thought he’d lose in the 2010 primary and how they were wrong. Wagner notes he’s the sole Republican in the race and regarding his Democratic opponent: “I have pictures of her. (Pause for audience reaction.) Pictures of her with the likes of Dennis Kucinich and Maxine Waters.”

Wagner ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: Speech by Steven Choi

While waiting for Diane Harkey to arrive, CRA asks Irvine Councilman Steven Choi to give a speech.

Steven Choi speaks about his efforts to make Irvine a better place. He speaks of his family and his conservative record. He notes he’s the sole Republican in the race for Mayor of Irvine.

Since the election is in November and only involves one city, the Greater Irvine RA will vote later this year on endorsing Choi.

Next up: AD-73

Assemblywoman Diane Harkey speaks of spending her own money to be in DC this past week lobbying Congress against high-speed rail. She notes her voting record and endorsements from conservative organizations.

Harkey ENDORSED by voice vote.

END: With shocking efficiency, the convention ended at 1:04, just four minutes late.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Irvine, Orange County, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

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