Today’s mail was literally coming out of my ears. AOCDS has sent out their 4th mailer supporting Michelle Steel. This is a straight public safety piece which even includes the AOCDS logo. Also in the mail were two hit pieces on Allan Mansoor, one of which mentions his previous support for pension increases and one talks about the government pension he’ll receive from being a former Sheriff. Hmmmm…
2nd Supervisorial – Steel Receives 4th IE Mailer from AOCDS and Hits Mansoor Twice
Posted by Marion Morrison on May 29, 2014
Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Mail | Tagged: Allan Mansoor, AOCDS, Michelle Steel | 1 Comment »
Michelle Steel Comparison Piece
Posted by Marion Morrison on May 28, 2014
With the Memorial Day break in postal activity, the Morrison household received a total of five pieces of political mail. Here is the second of three pieces in favor of Michelle Steel (the other was a duplicate of a previous mailer). This is a comparison piece attacking Allan Mansoor’s lack of any significant contributions in the State Assembly.
Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Mail | Tagged: Allan Mansoor, Michelle Steel | 3 Comments »
IE #3 for Michelle Steel
Posted by Marion Morrison on May 28, 2014
The Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs are back in the mail with yet another Independent Expenditure mailing for Michelle Steel.
Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Mail, Uncategorized | Tagged: AOCDS, Michelle Steel | 1 Comment »
Handicapping The Races: OC Clerk-Recorder (June 2014)
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 28, 2014
I am onto the last race that I am posting an analysis for (This June) and will give readers my take on the upcoming OC Clerk-Recorder race, which features the following candidates:
- Steve Rocco – Retired Teacher
- Monica Maddox – Local Businesswoman
- Gary Pritchard – Governing Board Member, Capistrano Unified School District
- Hugh Nguyen – Appointed Orange County Clerk-Recorder
Voter registration heavily favors Republicans in Orange County as a whole, Republicans have 42% of registered voters, Democrats have 31% of registered voters, and No Party Preference voters count for 22% of the electorate. Even though party affiliations matter very little in these races because they do not appear on the ballot we will fill in readers on what they are; Steve Rocco has No Party Preference, Monica Maddox is a Republican, Gary Pritchard is a Democrat and Hugh Nguyen is a Republican.
Also, it is important to explain that this race is just like a race for Orange County Supervisor where the top two vote getters will advance to November, unless the top vote getter finishes with over 50% of the vote.
Steve Rocco
Rocco is a non-factor in this race and I will list nothing but the following picture for prospective voters. This is all you need to know:
Monica Maddox
Monica Maddox is not running much of a campaign based on campaign finance data that has come in. Her only donation as of March 17th was from personal funds, totaling less than $6,000. She has no name ID because she has never been on the ballot before.
Her website as an absolute disaster with her first bullet point stating, “Monica will never vote for a tax increase.” This is an excellent campaign promise but it makes no mention of the fact that this is an executive office and does not have the ability to vote on items.
I do not think that she has much of a chance to advance to November.
Gary Pritchard
Gary Pritchard is a liberal member of the Capistrano Unified School Board and a lot of people are curious as to why he is running for this seat.
Pritchard will have some name ID due to the times he has appeared on the ballot in South OC for both CUSD and when he challenged Mimi Walters for the 33rd Senate District. However, Pritchard is not running much of a campaign and didn’t even bother to get the ballot statement.. Let’s take a look at his electoral history.
Results from 2012 (General Election):
| CAPISTRANO UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 5 |
| Completed Precincts: 31 of 31 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| GARY PRITCHARD | 9,087 | 59.1% |
| WILLIAM “BILL” PERKINS | 6,291 | 40.9% |
Results from 2008 (General Election):
| STATE SENATOR 33rd District |
| Completed Precincts: 754 of 754 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| MIMI WALTERS (REP) | 219,068 | 58.1% |
| GARY PRITCHARD (DEM) | 157,945 | 41.9% |
As you can see from the election results, Pritchard is an average candidate at best, running countywide without a ballot statement is not a campaign that he will likely win. This is amplified by the fact that a more conservative electorate is expected thanks to it being a gubernatorial primary election.
Pritchard is ironically the most likely opponent to possibly push Hugh Nguyen to a November run-off.
Hugh Nguyen
Hugh Nguyen was appointed to the office almost a year ago and has done an excellent job in running the office. He has run the most comprehensive campaign of all the candidates in the race purchasing slates and signs.
He ran for the seat in 2010 and did not have the best of luck when facing Tom Daly. Here are the results from that race:
| County Clerk-Recorder |
| Completed Precincts: 2084 of 2084 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| * TOM DALY | 286,286 | 74.6% |
| HUGH NGUYEN | 97,711 | 25.4% |
Hugh Nguyen will eventually win this seat but the question is whether or not he can win it in June based on the fact that three other candidates are in the race to split the vote.
My gut feeling is that because Hugh is the only candidate with a ballot statement and the only candidate that is making a real attempt at reaching out to voter, the odds are in his favor.
Prediction Time
Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict the winner will be
Hugh Nguyen (in June) – I think he is going to clear 50% of the vote.
Posted in Orange County Clerk-Recorder | Tagged: Gary Pritchard, hugh nguyen, Monica Maddox, Steve Rocco | Leave a Comment »
Handicapping The Races: OC Assessor (June 2014)
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 27, 2014
It’s to the point where I am simply getting the trademark Chris Nguyen scowl every time I write one of my handicapping posts. Now we shall take a look at the Orange County Assessor race:
The following candidates are running for OC Assessor:
- Claude Parrish – Taxpayer Advocate/Businessman
- Webster Guillory – Orange County Assessor
- Jorge O. Lopez – Consultant/Appraiser/Businessman
Voter registration heavily favors Republicans in Orange County as a whole, Republicans have 42% of registered voters, Democrats have 31% of registered voters, and No Party Preference voters count for 22% of the electorate. Even though party affiliations matter very little in these races because they do not appear on the ballot we will fill in readers on what they are; Claude Parrish is a Republican, Jorge Lopez is a Democrat, and Webster Guillory is an NPP voter.
Also, it is important to explain that this race is just like a race for Orange County Supervisor where the top two vote getters will advance to November, unless the top vote getter finishes with over 50% of the vote.
Claude Parrish
Claude Parrish is the predecessor to Michelle Steel on the State Board of Equalization and he has huge name ID. He ran for this office four years ago and came fairly close to upsetting Webster Guillory and I would argue that Parrish has a stronger ballot designation this time around.
Let’s take a look at his electoral history.
Results from 2010 (Primary Election):
| Assessor |
| Completed Precincts: 2084 of 2084 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| * WEBSTER J. GUILLORY | 203,814 | 53.4% |
| CLAUDE PARRISH | 177,909 | 46.6% |
Results from 2002 (Republican Primary):
| Board of Equalization 3rd District REP |
| Completed Precincts: 2094 of 2094 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| Claude Parrish | 151,092 | 64.7% |
| Steve Petruzzo | 66,705 | 28.5% |
| Emad Bakeer | 15,885 | 6.8% |
As you can see Parrish has some strong name ID over the past ten years. I will also point out that Parrish is the king of slates having bought up almost every major slate mailer that exists.
Parrish has loaned his campaign $100,000 and donated an additional $170,000 and appears willing to spend whatever is necessary to win this race. He has a almost all of the slate mailers, has the most campaign signs, and has run an excellent campaign so far.
With a low turnout election projected it bodes very well for a challenger who is running a strong campaign because the voters are more informed and will likely take the time to read about the race and the OC Register endorsement of Parrish a very valuable one.
Based on the factors above, I like his chances.
Webster Guillory
Webster Guillory is the incumbent and his been in this office for a very long time.
Guillory has very high name ID due to being on the ballot multiple times for a very long time. However, Guillory has not had to campaign for a very long time and does not appear willing to campaign very much this time. Let’s take a look at his electoral history:
Results from 2010 (June Primary):
| Assessor |
| Completed Precincts: 2084 of 2084 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| * WEBSTER J. GUILLORY | 203,814 | 53.4% |
| CLAUDE PARRISH | 177,909 | 46.6% |
Results from 2006 (June Primary):
| Assessor |
| Completed Precincts: 2076 of 2076 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| WEBSTER GUILLORY | 191511 | 58.9% |
| MIKE LEBEAU | 68935 | 21.2% |
| LARRY BALES | 64728 | 19.9% |
Results from 2002 (June Primary):
| Assessor |
| Completed Precincts: 2094 of 2094 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| Webster J. Guillory | 256,214 | 65.8% |
| Larry L. Bales | 133,299 | 34.2% |
As you can see from the election results, Guillory has a track record of getting elected to this seat, but I notice that he is trending downwards in terms of the percentage of the vote that he is receiving. With turnout at a ridiculously slow pace so far this climate may not be the best for an incumbent due to a more conservative electorate likely to turnout.
Guillory has done little campaigning outside of the ballot statement and has not even filled out the paperwork that shows he is planning to spend more than $1,000. With the lack of mail and other campaign materials he appears to be relying on just his name ID to try and advance to the November run-off. With three candidates in the race it would appear that Guillory has an excellent chance to advance but not win outright due to the anti-incumbent vote being split.
Guillory has received a little bit of press due to opponent Jorge Lopez complaining about how he gathered a majority of his signatures from county employees that work within his office.
Jorge O. Lopez
Jorge O. Lopez is on the ballot but he has done no real campaigning for the seat through voter contact. Unfortunately, he did not even get a ballot statement thus making it almost impossible for voters to figure out who he is and where he stands on the issues.
Lopez will likely play the role of spoiler though because his candidacy will likely gain enough votes to send this race to a November run-off thus making it more likely that Guillory can hold onto the seat.
Prediction Time
Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict the winner will be
Claude Parrish & Webster Guillory- Advancing to November
Posted in Orange County Assessor | Tagged: Claude Parrish, Jorge O. Lopez, Webster Guillory | 1 Comment »
Handicapping The Races: 74th Assembly District (June 2014)
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 27, 2014
It is getting worse, Chris Nguyen is likely going to come after me with the butcher knife from the Emanuel Patrascu mailer. Here is my take on the 74th Assembly District race which is open due to Assemblyman Allan Mansoor making an ill-advised run for the 2nd Supervisorial District against Michelle Steel.
Here are the candidates running for AD 74:
- Karina “Karina” Onofre (D) – Small Business Owner
- Keith D. Curry (R) – Businessman/City Councilmember
- Emanuel Patrascu (R) – Orange County Business Owner
- Matthew Harper (R) – Huntington Beach Mayor
- Anila Ali (D) – Middle School Teacher
Voter registration heavily favors Republicans, with Republicans having 43% of registered voters in the 74th Assembly District compared to Democrats who hold just 29% of voter registration which is extremely close to the number of No Party Preference voters who hold 23% of the vote. This is an open primary that falls under the rules of Proposition 14, so regardless of percentages, the two candidates with the most votes will advance to the November election. The 74th Assembly District currently has the following cities within its boundaries:
- Costa Mesa
- Laguna Beach
- Laguna Woods
- Newport Beach
- Huntington Beach (Portion)
- Irvine (Portion)
Karina “Karina” Onofre
I have had numerous Democrats call me accusing Republicans of planting Karina Onofre in this race as a Democrat to try and embarrass the Democratic Party. Onofre is a former candidate for Santa Ana City Council. Let’s take a look at her electoral history.
Results from November 2012 (General Election):
| CITY OF SANTA ANA Member, City Council, Ward 5 |
| Completed Precincts: 108 of 108 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| ROMAN A. REYNA | 32,419 | 61.8% |
| KARINA ONOFRE | 20,065 | 38.2% |
Onofre has major issues with turning her campaign finance reports in on time and has very little money raised ($5,000 raised as of the last report) and I am not considering her $100,000 loan a factor unless she actually starts to spend it. Normally I would say that the Democrat usually would have an excellent shot of advancing to November but Onofre will be splitting votes with fellow Democrat Anila Ali. This leads me to believe that due to Democratic registration being low that with a vote split Onofre and Ali will finish in the last place slots this June.
Nevertheless, Onofre has made this election a lot of fun. Check out these posts from Scott Carpenter; Prepare to be Entertained: The AD 74 “Feet to the Fire” Candidate Forum and AD74 Watch: Karina Onofre Channels Napoleon Dynamite.
Keith D. Curry
Keith Curry is considered the front-runner by most prognosticators at this point. He has the most money and has name ID in one of the largest cities in the district (Newport Beach)
Curry has been on the ballot multiple times in Newport Beach with a very successful track record in getting elected. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.
Results from November 2012 (General Election):
| CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH Member, City Council, District 7 |
| Completed Precincts: 89 of 89 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| KEITH D. CURRY | 30,255 | 100.0% |
Results from November 2008 (General Election):
| CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH Member, City Council, District 7 |
| Completed Precincts: 92 of 92 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| KEITH D. CURRY | 21,259 | 55.0% |
| DOLORES OTTING | 17,376 | 45.0% |
Curry is in complete control when it comes to campaign fundraising with over $171,000 raised and he has also spent his $100,000 loan in addition to the money he has raised. He has purchased multiple slate mailers, signs, and is currently in the lead on mail. Here are some of the mailers that our blogger Marion Morrison has posted:
AD 74 – Curry and Patrascu Both Positive
AD 74 – More Positive From Keith Curry
AD 74 Mail – Curry Postive and Patrascu Negative
With the amount of money that he has spent on voter contact it is a safe bet that Curry will be advancing to November.
Emanuel Patrascu
I will give Emanuel Patrascu credit because he has run an excellent campaign so far. He picked an excellent ballot designation and he has spent his money wisely on direct mail.
Patrascu has run for office before in Laguna Beach. Let’s take a brief look at her electoral history.
Results from November 2010 (General Election):
| CITY OF LAGUNA BEACH Member, City Council |
| Number To Vote For: 3 |
| Completed Precincts: 26 of 26 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| * KELLY H. BOYD | 7,190 | 30.3% |
| * ELIZABETH PEARSON | 6,669 | 28.1% |
| * TONI ISEMAN | 6,023 | 25.4% |
| EMANUEL PATRASCU | 3,819 | 16.1% |
Patrascu could be classified as the candidate that has gotten the most out of the money that he has. His campaign fundraising numbers include $60,000 raised and $33,000 raised (I am including the loan because he has spent the money). His mail has been directly attacking Curry which is one of the main reasons that I think Curry is considered the front-runner by all candidates. Her is a look at some of the mail sent out by the Patrascu campaign courtesy of our blogger Marion Morrison:
AD 74 – Emanuel Patrascu Attacks Keith Curry on High Speed Rail
AD 74 – Curry and Patrascu Both Positive
AD 74 Mail – Curry Postive and Patrascu Negative
Patrascu is in a dead heat with Matt Harper for the second place slot and I will give my reasoning for this later in this post.
Matthew Harper
Matthew Harper is considered the conservative darling in this race by many due to his years of activism in the Republican Party of Orange County. It appears that both Keith Curry and Emanuel Patrascu are ignoring him with most of their negative mail being focused on each other.
Harper has hold office for a number of years and has had a lot of success on the ballot. Let’s take a look at his electoral history:
Results from November 2012 (General Election):
| CITY OF HUNTINGTON BEACH Member, City Council |
| Number To Vote For: 4 |
| Completed Precincts: 152 of 152 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| CONNIE BOARDMAN | 20,019 | 9.4% |
| * JOE CARCHIO | 18,523 | 8.7% |
| MATTHEW HARPER | 15,886 | 7.5% |
| JOE SHAW | 14,585 | 6.9% |
| BARBARA DELGLEIZE | 14,171 | 6.7% |
| BLAIR FARLEY | 13,932 | 6.5% |
| BILLY O’CONNELL | 13,175 | 6.2% |
| JIM KATAPODIS | 13,100 | 6.2% |
| FRED J. SPEAKER | 11,183 | 5.3% |
| DAN KALMICK | 10,775 | 5.1% |
| NORM WESTWELL | 10,187 | 4.8% |
| BILL RORICK | 9,835 | 4.6% |
| HEATHER GROW | 9,624 | 4.5% |
| SHAWN ROSELIUS | 7,628 | 3.6% |
| ERIK PETERSON | 7,137 | 3.4% |
| BRUCE J. BRANDT | 7,125 | 3.3% |
| LANDON FICHTNER | 4,654 | 2.2% |
| ANDRISSA DOMINGUEZ | 4,440 | 2.1% |
| WILLIAM GRUNWALD | 3,652 | 1.7% |
| JOHN VON HOLLE | 3,209 | 1.5% |
| BLAKE ROSE (W) | 50 | 0.0% |
Results from November 2002 (General Election):
| Huntington Beach Union High Sch Dist |
| Vote For: 3 |
| Completed Precincts: 238 of 238 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| Matthew Harper | 29,220 | 17.5% |
| Bonnie Castrey | 27,605 | 16.5% |
| Brian Garland | 26,242 | 15.7% |
| Rosemary Saylor | 24,516 | 14.7% |
| Sylvia Garrett | 17,739 | 10.6% |
| Jim Peters | 12,052 | 7.2% |
| Sallie E. Dashiell | 12,050 | 7.2% |
| Ted K. Tadayon | 9,303 | 5.6% |
| Andrew Scott Patterson | 8,495 | 5.1% |
Harper has more name ID than both Curry and Patrascu but his fundraising numbers have been anemic at best. He has raised just $22,000 and again I am including his personal loan because he has spent it. This is a pretty large fundraising gap between himself and Patrascu.
With this fundraising gap in place it is a safe bet that Harper will likely not appear on any direct mail although he is on a decent amount of slate mailers including the always popular and effective Landslide Communications slate mailers. The biggest concern I have is that the Curry campaign has not hit him yet and this is a bad sign considering Curry has paid for polling data in this race.
In spite of my concerns I still consider Harper to be in a dead heat with Patrascu and I will explain why at the end of this post.
Anila Ali
In any normal election I would predict the Democrat to consolidate enough support to advance to November but Ali is likely going to lose because Karina Onofre is also running as a Democrat. Ali has never run for office before and has no name ID in this district. She has raised $39,000 which is more than both Onofre and Harper but I just don’t think it is enough to overcome both Onofre and the Democratic registration disadvantage.
Prediction Time
Before I make my prediction I want to point out where the ballots that have been returned are coming from:
14,961 ballots have been returned so far in AD 74
3,500 ballots from Newport beach (approximately)
3,000 ballots from Huntington Beach (approximately)
2,000 ballots from Laguna Woods (approximately)
2,000 ballots from Costa Mesa (approximately)
1,000 ballots from Laguna Beach (approximately)
Based on the high turnout from Huntington Beach I am giving Harper a fighting chance to advance to November although I am still leaning towards Patrascu.
Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict that the candidates who advance to November will be a repeat of AD 72, an All-Republican run-off:
Keith Curry (R) in 1st and Toss-Up Between Emanuel Patrascu and Matthew Harper (R) for 2nd
Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: Anila Ali, Emanuel Patrascu, Karina Onofre, Keith Curry, Matt Harper | 3 Comments »
The Munger Games Blog is Spot On Again!
Posted by Craig P. Alexander on May 26, 2014
The folks over at The Munger Games blog are once again spot on about Charles Munger trying to purchase a seat in the Assembly for candidate Anna Bryson.
I reported a few days ago about about Mr. Munger’s big buy into Ms. Bryson’s campaign with his dropping over $250,000 into his Spirit of Democracy IE PAC in support of her campaign for the 73rd Assembly District (Charles Munger Dipping…) and my fellow blogger Allan Wilson reported about the same thing happening in the 55nd Assembly District (Charles Munger and California Dental IE PAC) with his Dental IE PAC.
Now the Munger Games folks have noted that Mr. Munger has put in another $71,000 for pro-Bryson mailers over the last few days (Munger Money-Mongering). As a resident of the 73rd Assembly District I can attest that I have been receiving multiple pro Anna Bryson mailers over the last few days – in fact they appear to be using the same mailers over and over again. Some of these mailers come directly from her campaign and some from the Spirit of Democracy PAC (i.e. from Charles Munger). All of them tout her conservative credentials even though such a claim is, in my opinion, false (Why Does the Teachers Union Love Anna Bryson). Friends also tell me they have seen Anna Bryson commercials while watching TV. It is apparent that Charles Munger wishes to buy this seat for Anna Bryson.
With this much money being spent for her, in my opinion there is a definite expectation that if she wins she will be beholden to do as Mr. Munger demands for things like appointments of delegates to the California Republican Party and votes in the legislature for left of center positions on social issues, etc. From her votes on the school board since late 2010 I conclude that she has already proven Anna Bryson will switch sides if she perceives it to be to her benefit.
Of all of the local activists in Orange County who put out voter recommendation lists, none of them to my knowledge have recommended that you vote for Anna Bryson. Almost all of them recommend voting for Bill Brough as the true conservative in this race (Why I Support Bill Brough).
My thanks to The Munger Games folks for helping us keep track of Mr. Munger’s meddling in our Assembly race in South OC.
Posted in 73rd Assembly District, Capistrano Unified School District, Dana Point, Uncategorized | Tagged: Anna Brsyon, Bill Brough, California Republican Party, Charles Munger, Spirit of Democracy IE PAC, The Munger Games | 5 Comments »
Community Outreach Event for Michelle Steel and Dana Rohrabacher at the Wild Goose
Posted by Marion Morrison on May 25, 2014
A friend of the Morrison clan received this invitation from the owner of the Wild Goose in Costa Mesa. It’s a “neighborhood meeting with Dana Rohrabacher and Michelle Steel,” with a light lunch served. Interestingly enough, the mailer is paid for by both the Rohrabacher and Steel campaigns respectively.
Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Mail | Tagged: Dana Rohrabacher, Michelle Steel | Leave a Comment »
AOCDS Drops Piece #2 in Support of Michelle Steel
Posted by Marion Morrison on May 25, 2014
Voters in the 2nd Supervisorial District received another mailer today from the Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs, supporting Michelle Steel. The mailer touts Steel’s record of tax protection for homeowners.
Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Mail | Tagged: Michelle Steel | Leave a Comment »













