OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

2nd Supervisorial – Steel Receives 4th IE Mailer from AOCDS and Hits Mansoor Twice

Posted by Marion Morrison on May 29, 2014

Today’s mail was literally coming out of my ears.  AOCDS has sent out their 4th mailer supporting Michelle Steel.  This is a straight public safety piece which even includes the AOCDS logo.  Also in the mail were two hit pieces on Allan Mansoor, one of which mentions his previous support for pension increases and one talks about the government pension he’ll receive from being a former Sheriff.  Hmmmm…

Steel IE 2 of 2 Steel IE 1 of 2

Steel Hit 2 2 of 2 Steel Hit 2 1 of 2

Steel Hit 2 of 2 Steel Hit 1 of 2

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Mail | Tagged: , , | 1 Comment »

Why I Am Supporting Robert Ming for Supervisor

Posted by Craig P. Alexander on May 28, 2014


One of the important races on the June 3rd ballot is for the Orange County Supervisor, 5th District which is basically south Orange County.  Of the candidates in that race, I am supporting Laguna Niguel City Councilman Robert Ming (Robert Ming).  In the decade plus that I have known Robert, he has been a consistent movement conservative who judges decisions he makes on the City Council through the prism of questions such as 1. Is this something the Government should even be doing in the first place (instead of private enterprise), 2. is it Constitutional? and 3. is it the best deal for the taxpayers?  Whenever possible and legal Robert Ming (who is an attorney by profession) seeks to have government outsource functions to private contractors rather than have in-house employees hired with the attendant salaries, retirement benefits and retiree health care costs burdening the taxpayers.  He is also not in favor of government choosing winners and losers at the taxpayers’ expense (also known as “crony capitalism” which favors the politician’s friends and supporters).  Robert believes that when the government does business with private enterprise, all parties should play by the same rules and the government should remain neutral with the taxpayers getting the maximum benefit from open and fair competition.

While on the City Council Robert’s city built Laguna Niguel’s City Hall on time, under budget and for cash (no debt, bonds or loans of any kind).  When he was on the Board of the Orange County Vector Control agency, he insisted on transparency by the senior management that revealed wasteful spending by the Agency and the resignation of the former Executive Director.  Robert Ming was one of the main leaders in forming the Association of California Cities Orange County to counter the big government left leaning League of Cities.  He currently is the chairman of the ACCOC’s committee on pension reform.

Several years ago, Robert and I co-founded a public policy ministry at our church to help parishioners understand matters of public policy that are facing them in votes they are being asked to cast at elections.

In all of the decisions and situations (personal and as an elected leader) I have seen Robert in, he has always been consistent and honorable in his decision-making.  He will make an excellent choice to replace Pat Bates (who is termed out) which is why current Supervisors John Moorlach and Board Chairman Shawn Nelson have endorsed Robert Ming.  Robert has also been endorsed by the California Republican Assembly, the Lincoln Club of Orange County, the Family Action PAC and Atlas PAC and many, many local elected officials and South County citizens.  Of all of the South Orange County activists who research candidates and make voter recommendations, all of them recommend Robert Ming to be our next representative on the Board of Supervisors.  My friend Robyn Nordell, who hosts her own voter recommendation web site (www.robynnordell.com) and puts up the lists of most of the other activist lists’, also recommends Robert for this position (see the Orange County section of Robyn’s site).

Running against Robert for this seat are three other candidates.  One is the current Mayor of my town Dana Point.  Lisa Bartlett’s votes and actions on the City of Dana Point City Council and on the Transportation Corridor Agencies have proven that she is not a true conservative or qualified for this position.  While on the City Council she voted to raise taxes on guests at certain Dana Point hotels, ban plastic shopping bags and increase the size of the Dana Point city government (more employees and eliminating most outsourcing to independent contractors).

In addition, recently Ms. Bartlett was stripped of her authority as Chairman of the Transportation Corridor’s Foothill/Eastern Transportation Corridor Agency (Lisa Bartlett Stripped of Authority to Approve Contracts at TCA) largely due to her approving very questionable contracts without notice to her fellow board members.  Part of her duties were to approve or disapprove of certain types of contracts and contract extensions presented to her by the Executive Director of the TCA.  During the March 18, 2014 Dana Point City Council meeting I asked her which of the contracts the Executive Director of the TCA presented did she disapprove.  She responded that she did not disapprove of any of the contracts presented to her.  Further that the total amount involved was only $200,000.00 (Dana Point City Council: Scrutinizing TCA).

Her answers reveal two important shortcomings: First she considers $200,000 to not be an important amount of money – I find this attitude regarding ratepayer / taxpayer funds to be irresponsible.  It also appears she simply rubber stamped what the executive staff placed in front of her which tells me she does not ask the proper or “hard” questions of the staff that report to her as an elected official.  Given that the County’s total budget is several billions of taxpayer dollars – Ms. Bartlett’s votes and actions do not give me confidence she will be a good steward of our county taxpayer funds.

Another candidate for the 5th District Supervisor position is Mission Viejo city councilman Frank Ury.  Some of Mr. Ury’s votes on his city council cause me to have concerns about his motivations and how he would handle responsibility at the county level.  For example in 2008 or 2009 at the start of the Great Recession when Mission Viejo (and other Orange County) families were facing layoffs and cut backs, Frank Ury voted to approve the city spending approximately $350,000 in Mission Viejo taxpayer funds to buy a parade float in the Rose Bowl Parade.  There are many cities and other public entities that have Rose Bowl floats but they are normally financed by private donations not taxpayer dollars.  Some like to defend this vote by claiming there were hundreds or thousands of volunteers who came out to work on the float.  Even if that is a true statement (which is questionable), then the City Council could have asked each of these “thousands” of excited and motivated volunteers to help finance this project with $25 and $100 contributions (which could be set up to be tax-deductible) and pay for the float with volunteer funds with the City simply being a conduit for that civic effort.  Instead Mr. Ury voted to use taxpayer dollars to fund this unnecessary expenditure while the economy was shrinking rapidly.

Another of his questionable votes was for life time health care benefits for city council members who serve three terms on the council.  This would be a significant cost to Mission Viejo taxpayers for the health care of prior city council persons long, long after they have left office.  For a politician who claims to be a fiscal conservative to cast such a self-serving vote strongly suggests he was placing his own interests above those of the citizens he was elected to represent.

I am aware that in the distant past Mr. Ury worked on several projects such as proposition 226 to curb unions taking funds for political purposes.  However, while I applaud Mr. Ury’s good work of about fifteen years ago, it is his recent votes that are troubling and do not show good leadership or stewardship for our County.

Neither Mr. Ury nor Ms. Bartlett came to the CRA’s endorsing convention to ask for the endorsement or explain their current and past voting records.  Robert Ming was endorsed unanimously by the CRA (CRA Wrap Up).

The final candidate for this position is a Deputy District Attorney Joe Williams (he is registered No Party Preference).  Mr. Williams is a complete unknown in that he has never held public office so there is no voting track record to give an indication of how he might vote on the dais of the Board of Supervisors.  He is not running any type of campaign to communicate to voters like myself what he stands for and his priorities if he were to be elected.   The only thing I have seen of his campaign are a few yard signs sitting on the side of busy roadways.  The Board of Supervisors, with its very large budget, its budget shortfalls, thousands of employees, with serious problems such as unfunded employee pensions and retiree health care costs, is no place for someone wanting to do “on the job training.”

For these and many more reasons (but keeping in mind this blog post is already very long) I support and hope you will also support Robert Ming for the Orange County Board of Supervisors, 5th District.

In the interest of full disclosure I am the majority shareholder of a private company known as IC Media, Inc. and Robert is a minority shareholder in the company.  Also, I am a practicing  attorney, a former elected member of the OC Republican Central Committee, a former officer with the California Republican Assembly and a volunteer activist.  I am not on the payroll of any candidate or campaign and I do not act as a paid consultant to any political campaigns.

 

 

Posted in 5th Supervisorial District, Dana Point, Laguna Niguel, Mission Viejo, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Michelle Steel Comparison Piece

Posted by Marion Morrison on May 28, 2014

With the Memorial Day break in postal activity, the Morrison household received a total of five pieces of political mail.  Here is the second of three pieces in favor of Michelle Steel (the other was a duplicate of a previous mailer).  This is a comparison piece attacking Allan Mansoor’s lack of any significant contributions in the State Assembly.


Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Mail | Tagged: , | 3 Comments »

IE #3 for Michelle Steel

Posted by Marion Morrison on May 28, 2014

The Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs are back in the mail with yet another Independent Expenditure mailing for Michelle Steel.

Steel IE 2 of 2 Steel IE 1 of 2

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Mail, Uncategorized | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Handicapping The Races: OC Clerk-Recorder (June 2014)

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 28, 2014

I am onto the last race that I am posting an analysis for (This June) and will give readers my take on the upcoming OC Clerk-Recorder race, which features the following candidates:

  • Steve Rocco – Retired Teacher
  • Monica Maddox – Local Businesswoman
  • Gary Pritchard – Governing Board Member, Capistrano Unified School District
  • Hugh Nguyen – Appointed Orange County Clerk-Recorder

Voter registration heavily favors Republicans in Orange County as a whole, Republicans have 42% of registered voters, Democrats have 31% of registered voters, and No Party Preference voters count for 22% of the electorate. Even though party affiliations matter very little in these races because they do not appear on the ballot we will fill in readers on what they are; Steve Rocco has No Party Preference, Monica Maddox is a Republican, Gary Pritchard is a Democrat and Hugh Nguyen is a Republican.

Also, it is important to explain that this race is just like a race for Orange County Supervisor where the top two vote getters will advance to November, unless the top vote getter finishes with over 50% of the vote.

Steve Rocco

Rocco is a non-factor in this race and I will list nothing but the following picture for prospective voters. This is all you need to know:

rocco

Monica Maddox

Monica Maddox is not running much of a campaign based on campaign finance data that has come in. Her only donation as of March 17th was from personal funds, totaling less than $6,000. She has no name ID because she has never been on the ballot before.

Her website as an absolute disaster with her first bullet point stating, “Monica will never vote for a tax increase.” This is an excellent campaign promise but it makes no mention of the fact that this is an executive office and does not have the ability to vote on items.

I do not think that she has much of a chance to advance to November.

Gary Pritchard

Gary Pritchard is a liberal member of the Capistrano Unified School Board and a lot of people are curious as to why he is running for this seat.

Pritchard will have some name ID due to the times he has appeared on the ballot in South OC for both CUSD and when he challenged Mimi Walters for the 33rd Senate District. However, Pritchard is not running much of a campaign and didn’t even bother to get the ballot statement.. Let’s take a look at his electoral history.

Results from 2012 (General Election):

CAPISTRANO UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 5
Completed Precincts: 31 of 31
Vote Count Percentage
GARY PRITCHARD 9,087 59.1%
WILLIAM “BILL” PERKINS 6,291 40.9%

Results from 2008 (General Election):

STATE SENATOR 33rd District
Completed Precincts: 754 of 754
Vote Count Percentage
MIMI WALTERS (REP) 219,068 58.1%
GARY PRITCHARD (DEM) 157,945 41.9%

As you can see from the election results, Pritchard is an average candidate at best, running countywide without a ballot statement is not a campaign that he will likely win. This is amplified by the fact that a more conservative electorate is expected thanks to it being a gubernatorial primary election.

Pritchard is ironically the most likely opponent to possibly push Hugh Nguyen to a November run-off.

Hugh Nguyen

Hugh Nguyen was appointed to the office almost a year ago and has done an excellent job in running the office. He has run the most comprehensive campaign of all the candidates in the race purchasing slates and signs.

He ran for the seat in 2010 and did not have the best of luck when facing Tom Daly. Here are the results from that race:

County Clerk-Recorder
Completed Precincts: 2084 of 2084
Vote Count Percentage
* TOM DALY 286,286 74.6%
HUGH NGUYEN 97,711 25.4%

Hugh Nguyen will eventually win this seat but the question is whether or not he can win it in June based on the fact that three other candidates are in the race to split the vote.

My gut feeling is that because Hugh is the only candidate with a ballot statement and the only candidate that is making a real attempt at reaching out to voter, the odds are in his favor.

Prediction Time

Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict the winner will be

Hugh Nguyen (in June) – I think he is going to clear 50% of the vote.

Posted in Orange County Clerk-Recorder | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Handicapping The Races: OC Assessor (June 2014)

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 27, 2014

It’s to the point where I am simply getting the trademark Chris Nguyen scowl every time I write one of my handicapping posts. Now we shall take a look at the Orange County Assessor race:

The following candidates are running for OC Assessor:

  • Claude Parrish – Taxpayer Advocate/Businessman
  • Webster Guillory – Orange County Assessor
  • Jorge O. Lopez – Consultant/Appraiser/Businessman

Voter registration heavily favors Republicans in Orange County as a whole, Republicans have 42% of registered voters, Democrats have 31% of registered voters, and No Party Preference voters count for 22% of the electorate. Even though party affiliations matter very little in these races because they do not appear on the ballot we will fill in readers on what they are; Claude Parrish is a Republican, Jorge Lopez is a Democrat, and Webster Guillory is an NPP voter.

Also, it is important to explain that this race is just like a race for Orange County Supervisor where the top two vote getters will advance to November, unless the top vote getter finishes with over 50% of the vote.

Claude Parrish

Claude Parrish is the predecessor to Michelle Steel on the State Board of Equalization and he has huge name ID. He ran for this office four years ago and came fairly close to upsetting Webster Guillory and I would argue that Parrish has a stronger ballot designation this time around.

Let’s take a look at his electoral history.

Results from 2010 (Primary Election):

Assessor
Completed Precincts: 2084 of 2084
Vote Count Percentage
* WEBSTER J. GUILLORY 203,814 53.4%
CLAUDE PARRISH 177,909 46.6%

Results from 2002 (Republican Primary):

Board of Equalization
3rd District REP
Completed Precincts: 2094 of 2094
Vote Count Percentage
Claude Parrish 151,092 64.7%
Steve Petruzzo 66,705 28.5%
Emad Bakeer 15,885 6.8%

As you can see Parrish has some strong name ID over the past ten years. I will also point out that Parrish is the king of slates having bought up almost every major slate mailer that exists.

Parrish has loaned his campaign $100,000 and donated an additional $170,000  and appears willing to spend whatever is necessary to win this race. He has a almost all of the slate mailers, has the most campaign signs, and has run an excellent campaign so far.

With a low turnout election projected it bodes very well for a challenger who is running a strong campaign because the voters are more informed and will likely take the time to read about the race and the OC Register endorsement of Parrish a very valuable one.

Based on the factors above, I like his chances.

Webster Guillory

Webster Guillory is the incumbent and his been in this office for a very long time.

Guillory has very high name ID due to being on the ballot multiple times for a very long time. However, Guillory has not had to campaign for a very long time and does not appear willing to campaign very much this time. Let’s take a look at his electoral history:

Results from 2010 (June Primary):

Assessor
Completed Precincts: 2084 of 2084
Vote Count Percentage
* WEBSTER J. GUILLORY 203,814 53.4%
CLAUDE PARRISH 177,909 46.6%

Results from 2006 (June Primary):

Assessor
Completed Precincts: 2076 of 2076
Vote Count Percentage
WEBSTER GUILLORY 191511 58.9%
MIKE LEBEAU 68935 21.2%
LARRY BALES 64728 19.9%

Results from 2002 (June Primary):

Assessor
Completed Precincts: 2094 of 2094
Vote Count Percentage
Webster J. Guillory 256,214 65.8%
Larry L. Bales 133,299 34.2%

As you can see from the election results, Guillory has a track record of getting elected to this seat, but I notice that he is trending downwards in terms of the percentage of the vote that he is receiving. With turnout at a ridiculously slow pace so far this climate may not be the best for an incumbent due to a more conservative electorate likely to turnout.

Guillory has done little campaigning outside of the ballot statement and has not even filled out the paperwork that shows he is planning to spend more than $1,000. With the lack of mail and other campaign materials he appears to be relying on just his name ID to try and advance to the November run-off. With three candidates in the race it would appear that Guillory has an excellent chance to advance but not win outright due to the anti-incumbent vote being split.

Guillory has received a little bit of press due to opponent Jorge Lopez complaining about how he gathered a majority of his signatures from county employees that work within his office.

Jorge O. Lopez

Jorge O. Lopez is on the ballot but he has done no real campaigning for the seat through voter contact. Unfortunately, he did not even get a ballot statement thus making it almost impossible for voters to figure out who he is and where he stands on the issues.

Lopez will likely play the role of spoiler though because his candidacy will likely gain enough votes to send this race to a November run-off thus making it more likely that Guillory can hold onto the seat.

Prediction Time

Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict the winner will be

Claude Parrish & Webster Guillory- Advancing to November

Posted in Orange County Assessor | Tagged: , , | 1 Comment »

Handicapping The Races: 74th Assembly District (June 2014)

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 27, 2014

It is getting worse, Chris Nguyen is likely going to come after me with the butcher knife from the Emanuel Patrascu mailer. Here is my take on the 74th Assembly District race which is open due to Assemblyman Allan Mansoor making an ill-advised run for the 2nd Supervisorial District against Michelle Steel.

Here are the candidates running for AD 74:

  • Karina “Karina” Onofre (D) – Small Business Owner
  • Keith D. Curry (R) – Businessman/City Councilmember
  • Emanuel Patrascu (R) – Orange County Business Owner
  • Matthew Harper (R) – Huntington Beach Mayor
  • Anila Ali (D) – Middle School Teacher

Voter registration heavily favors Republicans, with Republicans having 43% of registered voters in the 74th Assembly District compared to Democrats who hold just 29% of voter registration which is extremely close to the number of No Party Preference voters who hold 23% of the vote. This is an open primary that falls under the rules of Proposition 14, so regardless of percentages, the two candidates with the most votes will advance to the November election. The 74th Assembly District currently has the following cities within its boundaries:

  • Costa Mesa
  • Laguna Beach
  • Laguna Woods
  • Newport Beach
  • Huntington Beach (Portion)
  • Irvine (Portion)

Karina “Karina” Onofre

I have had numerous Democrats call me accusing Republicans of planting Karina Onofre in this race as a Democrat to try and embarrass the Democratic Party. Onofre is a former candidate for Santa Ana City Council. Let’s take a look at her electoral history.

Results from November 2012 (General Election):

CITY OF SANTA ANA Member, City Council, Ward 5
Completed Precincts: 108 of 108
Vote Count Percentage
ROMAN A. REYNA 32,419 61.8%
KARINA ONOFRE 20,065 38.2%

Onofre has major issues with turning her campaign finance reports in on time and has very little money raised ($5,000 raised as of the last report) and I am not considering her $100,000 loan a factor unless she actually starts to spend it. Normally I would say that the Democrat usually would have an excellent shot of advancing to November but Onofre will be splitting votes with fellow Democrat Anila Ali. This leads me to believe that due to Democratic registration being low that with a vote split Onofre and Ali will finish in the last place slots this June.

Nevertheless, Onofre has made this election a lot of fun. Check out these posts from Scott Carpenter; Prepare to be Entertained: The AD 74 “Feet to the Fire” Candidate Forum and AD74 Watch: Karina Onofre Channels Napoleon Dynamite.

Keith D. Curry

Keith Curry is considered the front-runner by most prognosticators at this point. He has the most money and has name ID in one of the largest cities in the district (Newport Beach)

Curry has been on the ballot multiple times in Newport Beach with a very successful track record in getting elected. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.

Results from November 2012 (General Election):

CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH Member, City Council, District 7
Completed Precincts: 89 of 89
Vote Count Percentage
KEITH D. CURRY 30,255 100.0%

Results from November 2008 (General Election):

CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH Member, City Council, District 7
Completed Precincts: 92 of 92
Vote Count Percentage
KEITH D. CURRY 21,259 55.0%
DOLORES OTTING 17,376 45.0%

Curry is in complete control when it comes to campaign fundraising with over $171,000 raised and he has also spent his $100,000 loan in addition to the money he has raised. He has purchased multiple slate mailers, signs, and is currently in the lead on mail. Here are some of the mailers that our blogger Marion Morrison has posted:

AD 74 – Curry and Patrascu Both Positive
AD 74 – More Positive From Keith Curry
AD 74 Mail – Curry Postive and Patrascu Negative

With the amount of money that he has spent on voter contact it is a safe bet that Curry will be advancing to November.

Emanuel Patrascu

I will give Emanuel Patrascu credit because he has run an excellent campaign so far. He picked an excellent ballot designation and he has spent his money wisely on direct mail.

Patrascu has run for office before in Laguna Beach. Let’s take a brief look at her electoral history.

Results from November 2010 (General Election):

CITY OF LAGUNA BEACH Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 26 of 26
Vote Count Percentage
* KELLY H. BOYD 7,190 30.3%
* ELIZABETH PEARSON 6,669 28.1%
* TONI ISEMAN 6,023 25.4%
EMANUEL PATRASCU 3,819 16.1%

Patrascu could be classified as the candidate that has gotten the most out of the money that he has. His campaign fundraising numbers include $60,000 raised and $33,000 raised (I am including the loan because he has spent the money). His mail has been directly attacking Curry which is one of the main reasons that I think Curry is considered the front-runner by all candidates. Her is a look at some of the mail sent out by the Patrascu campaign courtesy of our blogger Marion Morrison:

AD 74 – Emanuel Patrascu Attacks Keith Curry on High Speed Rail
AD 74 – Curry and Patrascu Both Positive
AD 74 Mail – Curry Postive and Patrascu Negative

Patrascu is in a dead heat with Matt Harper for the second place slot and I will give my reasoning for this later in this post.

Matthew Harper

Matthew Harper is considered the conservative darling in this race by many due to his years of activism in the Republican Party of Orange County. It appears that both Keith Curry and Emanuel Patrascu are ignoring him with most of their negative mail being focused on each other.

Harper has hold office for a number of years and has had a lot of success on the ballot. Let’s take a look at his electoral history:

Results from November 2012 (General Election):

CITY OF HUNTINGTON BEACH Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 4
Completed Precincts: 152 of 152
Vote Count Percentage
CONNIE BOARDMAN 20,019 9.4%
* JOE CARCHIO 18,523 8.7%
MATTHEW HARPER 15,886 7.5%
JOE SHAW 14,585 6.9%
BARBARA DELGLEIZE 14,171 6.7%
BLAIR FARLEY 13,932 6.5%
BILLY O’CONNELL 13,175 6.2%
JIM KATAPODIS 13,100 6.2%
FRED J. SPEAKER 11,183 5.3%
DAN KALMICK 10,775 5.1%
NORM WESTWELL 10,187 4.8%
BILL RORICK 9,835 4.6%
HEATHER GROW 9,624 4.5%
SHAWN ROSELIUS 7,628 3.6%
ERIK PETERSON 7,137 3.4%
BRUCE J. BRANDT 7,125 3.3%
LANDON FICHTNER 4,654 2.2%
ANDRISSA DOMINGUEZ 4,440 2.1%
WILLIAM GRUNWALD 3,652 1.7%
JOHN VON HOLLE 3,209 1.5%
BLAKE ROSE (W) 50 0.0%

Results from November 2002 (General Election):

Huntington Beach Union High Sch Dist
Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 238 of 238
Vote Count Percentage
Matthew Harper 29,220 17.5%
Bonnie Castrey 27,605 16.5%
Brian Garland 26,242 15.7%
Rosemary Saylor 24,516 14.7%
Sylvia Garrett 17,739 10.6%
Jim Peters 12,052 7.2%
Sallie E. Dashiell 12,050 7.2%
Ted K. Tadayon 9,303 5.6%
Andrew Scott Patterson 8,495 5.1%

Harper has more name ID than both Curry and Patrascu but his fundraising numbers have been anemic at best. He has raised just $22,000 and again I am including his personal loan because he has spent it. This is a pretty large fundraising gap between himself and Patrascu.

With this fundraising gap in place it is a safe bet that Harper will likely not appear on any direct mail although he is on a decent amount of slate mailers including the always popular and effective Landslide Communications slate mailers. The biggest concern I have is that the Curry campaign has not hit him yet and this is a bad sign considering Curry has paid for polling data in this race.

In spite of my concerns I still consider Harper to be in a dead heat with Patrascu and I will explain why at the end of this post.

Anila Ali

In any normal election I would predict the Democrat to consolidate enough support to advance to November but Ali is likely going to lose because Karina Onofre is also running as a Democrat. Ali has never run for office before and has no name ID in this district. She has raised $39,000 which is more than both Onofre and Harper but I just don’t think it is enough to overcome both Onofre and the Democratic registration disadvantage.

Prediction Time

Before I make my prediction I want to point out where the ballots that have been returned are coming from:

14,961 ballots have been returned so far in AD 74
3,500 ballots from Newport beach (approximately)
3,000 ballots from Huntington Beach (approximately)
2,000 ballots from Laguna Woods (approximately)
2,000 ballots from Costa Mesa (approximately)
1,000 ballots from Laguna Beach (approximately)

Based on the high turnout from Huntington Beach I am giving Harper a fighting chance to advance to November although I am still leaning towards Patrascu.

Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict that the candidates who advance to November will be a repeat of AD 72, an All-Republican run-off:

Keith Curry (R) in 1st and Toss-Up Between Emanuel Patrascu and Matthew Harper (R) for 2nd

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

The Munger Games Blog is Spot On Again!

Posted by Craig P. Alexander on May 26, 2014

The folks over at The Munger Games blog are once again spot on about Charles Munger trying to purchase a seat in the Assembly for candidate Anna Bryson.

I reported a few days ago about about Mr. Munger’s big buy into Ms. Bryson’s campaign with his dropping over $250,000 into his Spirit of Democracy IE PAC in support of her campaign for the 73rd Assembly District (Charles Munger Dipping…) and my fellow blogger Allan Wilson reported about the same thing happening in the 55nd Assembly District (Charles Munger and California Dental IE PAC) with his Dental IE PAC.

Now the Munger Games folks have noted that Mr. Munger has put in another $71,000 for pro-Bryson mailers over the last few days (Munger Money-Mongering).  As a resident of the 73rd Assembly District I can attest that I have been receiving multiple pro Anna Bryson mailers over the last few days – in fact they appear to be using the same mailers over and over again.  Some of these mailers come directly from her campaign and some from the Spirit of Democracy PAC (i.e. from Charles Munger).  All of them tout her conservative credentials even though such a claim is, in my opinion, false (Why Does the Teachers Union Love Anna Bryson).   Friends also tell me they have seen Anna Bryson commercials while watching TV.  It is apparent that Charles Munger wishes to buy this seat for Anna Bryson.

With this  much money being spent for her, in my opinion there is a definite expectation that if she wins she will be beholden to do as Mr. Munger demands for things like appointments of delegates to the California Republican Party and votes in the legislature for left of center positions on social issues, etc.  From her votes on the school board since late 2010 I conclude that she has already proven Anna Bryson will switch sides if she perceives it to be to her benefit.

Of all of the local activists in Orange County who put out voter recommendation lists, none of them to my knowledge have recommended that you vote for Anna Bryson.  Almost all of them recommend voting for Bill Brough as the true conservative in this race (Why I Support Bill Brough).

My thanks to The Munger Games folks for helping us keep track of Mr. Munger’s meddling in our Assembly race in South OC.

Posted in 73rd Assembly District, Capistrano Unified School District, Dana Point, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Community Outreach Event for Michelle Steel and Dana Rohrabacher at the Wild Goose

Posted by Marion Morrison on May 25, 2014

A friend of the Morrison clan received this invitation from the owner of the Wild Goose in Costa Mesa.  It’s a “neighborhood meeting with Dana Rohrabacher and Michelle Steel,” with a light lunch served.  Interestingly enough, the mailer is paid for by both the Rohrabacher and Steel campaigns respectively.

Steel Rhorabacher Event

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Mail | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

AOCDS Drops Piece #2 in Support of Michelle Steel

Posted by Marion Morrison on May 25, 2014

Voters in the 2nd Supervisorial District received another mailer today from the Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs, supporting Michelle Steel. The mailer touts Steel’s record of tax protection for homeowners.

Steel IE 2 of 2 Steel IE 1 of 2

 

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Mail | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »