OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 49th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 12, 2012

Last prediction post of the day.

We have a new U.S. Representative in Orange County even though it only covers a very tiny portion of South County.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

CD 49 is a mix of the northern coastal part of San Diego and also the Southernmost tip of Orange County. It has a 14 point Republican registration advantage and a conservative leaning DTS voter base.

Much like some of the other conservative seats that I have referenced, this one has had a Republican victory in every major race back in 2008 and 2010. Nothing should change in 2012 unless the incumbent decides to drop out to pursue other interests.

Incumbent Congressman Darrel Issa has found his way up to Orange County. This is a pretty good trade off for Orange County residents to get Darrell Issa as opposed to Ken Calvert being one of our Congressional Representatives.

His challengers include:

Jerry Tetalman a Registered Nurse/Realtor who is running as a Democrat.

Dick Eiden a Retired Attorney who is running as No Party Preference.

Albin Novinec a Realtor who is running as No Party Preference.

The factors at play- Darrell Issa is the only incumbent, the only Republican, and has the highest name ID in this district.

The 2 candidates running as NPP will both split the vote of DTS voters who are already low turnout voters in primaries.

The lone Democrat will pull votes based on party and will likely do enough to get the party to support him through June.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Darrell Issa & Jerry Tetalman

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2012 Primary Election Predictions: 48th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 12, 2012

Now back to the boring and obvious races for Congress, we move on to the 48th Congressional District which covers coastal Orange County.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat is currently a Republican stronghold with a 17 point registration advantage. Also, in 2008 and 2010 Republicans one every single major race in this district. Even after redistricting took place, it is clear that this seat is not in play. DTS voters in this district almost outnumber Democrats, lagging by just 7 points in registration.

Incumbent Congressman Dana Rohrabacher has represented a portion of this district as part of his old one. He also picks up some of the old parts of the old John Campbell district. With the amount of name ID he has it will be very tough to see a candidate put up a serious fight in this race.

I don’t know why, but I genuinely dislike his website. My hope is that he switches to something a little bit less busy.

His challengers include:

Ron Varasteh an Engineer/Small Businessman who is running as a Democrat.

Alan Schlar a Marketing Sales Executive who is running with No Party Preference.

The factors at play- Dana Rohrabacher is the only viable candidate in this race for a large number of reasons, including name ID, campaign experience, party affiliation, ballot designation, etc…

Between the other candidates running it comes down to a couple of factors. Do Democrats turn out to vote at a higher rate than DTS voters? Do Republicans who perhaps are more moderate vote for the (NPP) candidate instead of Rohrabacher or Varasteh.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Dana Rohrabacher & Ron Varasteh

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2012 Primary Election Predictions: 47th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 12, 2012

Today seems like a good day to go ahead and finish up handicapping the rest of the Congressional races. We will start with what I expect to be the most competitive race in both June and November. Sadly, no viable Orange County candidate is running for this seat, and for whatever reason political people in Orange County don’t seem to care much about this race. It is important to note when looking at the map below that even though Laura Richardson lives in this district she has opted to run in a different seat.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat will be an absolute dog fight. I expect resources from Washington D.C. on both sides to be poured in, after the primary is over.

With Laura Richardson opting to run for a different seat it leaves this one wide open. Democrats have around a 10 point registration advantage. However, Long Beach which is the largest part of this district has lower turnout than Orange County. Add in a conservative leaning DTS crowd (20.5% registration) and you get a fun race to watch.

Republican Steve Cooley did get more votes than Kamala Harris in this race and Proposition 8 did pass. The Democrats have had an advantage here though in both 200 and 2010.

The primary is already a circus with 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans all vying to make it into the top 2. Based on registration it is fairly obvious that one candidate from each party will emerge.

Candidates include:

State Senator Alan Lowenthal who will have the ability to run a strong campaign having gained experience running for legislature. He is running as a Democrat.

Peter Mathews a College Professor/Educator who is running as a Democrat.

Then comes the curious case of Dr. Jay Shah and Usha Shah who are both running for this seat. Normally it is not shocking to see people with the same last name running for an office, but these two actually live in the same house. If anybody has an explanation on this, I would love to hear what it is.

Long Beach City Councilman Gary DeLong is running, but he chose not to use his elected title as his ballot designation. He is listed as a Republican.

Former Congressman Steve Kuykendall is looking to make a return to D.C. having thrown his hat into the ring.

Steve Foley is the only Orange County candidate running for this seat, but he also made a huge mistake by putting no ballot designation down.

Sanford Kahn is the last Republican running for this seat and he is listed as a Small Business Owner on the ballot (similar to what DeLong used as a designation).

The factors at play- Alan Lowenthal is the most viable Democrat through high Name ID, more campaign experience, and best ballot designation. The Shah’s will split the vote and Mathews although a very brought guy will likely not be able to jump ahead of Lowenthal.

Of the 4 Republicans running, Foley is automatically in the category of having no shot because he did not put down a ballot designation and Kahn does not have enough Name ID to get into the top-tier.

This second slot will clearly come down to DeLong and Kuykendall. Kuykendall was in Congress, has name ID, and clearly knows how to run a race. DeLong is currently on the Long Beach City Council but he made the mistake of not putting his elected title on the ballot.

In the end I think that Kuykendall has simply been out of the game for 10 years and his name ID will be trumped by DeLong who is currently on the Long Beach City Council.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Alan Lowenthal & Gary DeLong

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Moreno’s Attempt to Withdraw from AD-69 & Hatch Act Implications

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 12, 2012

Jose "Joe" Moreno

Jose "Joe" Moreno

The Orange County Register’s Andrew Galvin reported yesterday that on Thursday, March 29, AD-69 candidate Jose “Joe” Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno) wrote a letter to the Registrar of Voters asking to withdraw from the AD-69 race:

I Jose Moreno a candidate running for the 69th Assembly District, request that the Orange County Registrar of Voters, effective immediately remove my name as a candidate for the aforementioned office.  I have learned that I may be violating the Hatch Act, as an employee working for a federally funded agency.

Registrar Neal Kelley responded to Moreno the same day denying the request.  (I do find it odd that the Registrar did not send this request to the Secretary of State’s office, as that office is the one that makes final determinations as to the appearance on the ballot of candidates for State offices, like the Assembly.)

After Kelley refused to remove Moreno from the ballot, the Register reported that Moreno decided that “he will continue to actively campaign for the Assembly seat.”

On Friday, April 6, the Fresno Bee reported that candidate Geof Lickey got off the ballot in the AD-31 race due to the Hatch Act.

On Monday, April 9, I wrote a post speculating about Moreno’s eligibility to run due to the Hatch Act.

The Register wrote that Moreno “expects to lose his job” while his employer, “the Social Services Agency, said the agency doesn’t comment on personnel matters.”  Either Moreno’s speculation about losing his job is overblown or the County Social Services Agency is overreacting, as firing Moreno is the toughest penalty available under the Hatch Act.

The U.S. Office of Special Counsel is responsible for investigating and charging violations of the Hatch Act (essentially, they fulfill the enforcement role for the Hatch Act), which is adjudicated before the Merit Systems Protection Board.

In a 2007 advisory opinion to a candidate, the U.S. Office of Special Counsel wrote:

OSC did not open an investigation into the matter because you withdrew your candidacy once we informed you that the Hatch Act prohibited it. Because you attempted to come into compliance with the law, we did not view your violation as a knowing and willful one…OSC has not opened an investigation into this matter because you attempted to withdraw from the election…Accepting an appointment to this same position does not, in our opinion, evidence good faith on your part. Thus, if you were to accept an appointment to the [position]…OSC would consider the acceptance an aggravating factor in this matter, which likely would cause us to open an investigation.”

In other words, a good faith effort to withdraw from an election is enough to mitigate the penalties of the Hatch Act, provided the candidate does not attempt to pursue the office after the withdrawal effort.

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 46th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 11, 2012

This race always makes me feel like pulling my hair out. We always seem close to having the right factors in place to beat Loretta but can never quite win this seat. I thought for sure when Van Tran ran back in 2010 that we would take it back, but alas we did not.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

Unfortunately things got worse for Republicans in this seat with the redistricting commission making this one a bit more liberal. Democrats hold a 12 point advantage in this district and DTS voters are likely to lean a bit more to the lift than in other parts of Orange County.

Steve Cooley did beat Kamala Harris in the race for Attorney General in this district and Proposition 8 passed by a large margin. However, Democrats do seem to win on a consistent basis here.

Incumbent Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez does make sure to work her district, which does end up getting her votes on election day. She has represented a pretty solid chunk of this district during her tenure in Congress. One advantage for Republicans this time though is that her bank account was wiped out by Kindee Durkee.

Her challengers include:

John J. Cullum a Strategy Manager/Accountant who is running as a Republican.

Pat Garcia an Escrow Company Owner who is running as a Republican.

Jerry Hayden a Local Independent Businessman who is running as a Republican.

Jorge Rocha a Tax Accountant who is running as No Party Preference. This one I find interesting since he sought the CRA endorsement yet was ineligible to receive the CRA endorsement.

The factors at play- Loretta Sanchez is the only Democrat on the ballot, has incumbency on her side, and wields a high amount of Name ID.

Of the 3 Republicans it appears that Jerry Hayden is running the most effective campaign (although it is still early). Hayden also has the best ballot designations of all the challengers. The real question here though is if the Republicans all split the vote amongst each other allowing Jorge Rocha to advance. Hayden does appear willing to pour some serious resources into this campaign though.

Jorge Rocha likely made a very wise decision to run as  (NPP) because he has a decent shot of advancing if the Republicans split the vote evenly. If he can raise enough money to raise his name ID he has a shot. I think he will come close to finishing in the second slot but fall just a bit short.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Loretta Sanchez & Jerry Hayden

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David Overtaking Goliath: Pauly Raises More Than Double the Money Spitzer Raised in 2012

Posted by The Rock of OC on April 11, 2012

You read that headline right: Deborah Pauly raised more money than the vaunted Todd Spitzer money machine in 2012.  Not just more, but more than double.

According to the latest campaign finance reports, Spitzer raised $3,100 while Pauly raised $7,578.  That’s right: David raised more than double what Goliath did.

This is a clear sign that the momentum is shifting toward Deborah Pauly.  True conservatives are holding their money back from special-interest Spitzer.  Pauly’s gain in momentum is clearly causing union-supporter Spitzer’s money to dry up.

The donors are beginning to realize that the people don’t want bought and paid career politicians who do the bidding of their masters.   They are tired of Orange County being pillaged by the special interests that suck at the public teat.

The people’s eyes are open, and the donors realize it.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, Fundraising | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 45th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 11, 2012

I already know that I am going to get flack for my prediction in this race since a lot of people have a beef with John Campbell. For the record this is actually the Congressional seat that now represents me, with Anaheim Hills being drawn in by the redistricting commission.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

Republicans have a 17 point advantage in this seat along with a conservative leaning DTS crowd that is just 6 points away from making the Democrats totally irrelevant in this seat. (Democrats 28, DTS 22).

What used to be CD 48 moved a lot further north eliminating Newport Beach and picking up Orange/Anaheim Hills among other changes. This seat is a pretty safe Republican seat on paper despite the fact that Barack Obama came within 4 points of McCain back in 2008.

Incumbent Congressman John Campbell is currently representing a good portion of this district in CD 48. Which will make him the clear front-runner despite a couple of challengers taking him on this election, including another Republican.

His challengers include Sukhee Kang the Mayor of Irvine who is running as a Democrat. This is the second time that a member of the Irvine City Council has run against Campbell after Beth Krom ran back in 2010.

The other challenger is John Webb a Tea Party Republican who opted to run with the (R) next to his name as opposed to (NPP). He is listed as a small business owner on the ballot.

The factors at play- John Campbell is the incumbent and has represented the majority of this district thus boosting his name ID. His ability to send out mail and fund a comprehensive campaign make him the front-runner to finish first on the ballot in June despite the Republican vote being split.

John Webb seems like he is a good guy and he has a backing of some tea party folks behind him. His fundraising numbers just don’t lead me to believe he can get his message out to enough voters to get into the top 2. Had he listed himself as (NPP) on the ballot I think he might have been able to finish ahead of Sukhee Kang.

Sukhee Kang despite being wiped out by Kindee Durkee has name ID in Irvine, which is a good-sized part of CD 45.  He is also the only Democrat on the ballot. Based on his name ID and party affiliation alone I believe that he will advance to November.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

John Campbell & Sukhee Kang

Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: , , | 2 Comments »

Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Petrilla to Deploy to Afghanistan

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 11, 2012

Jesse Petrilla

Jesse Petrilla

On Monday, Assemblyman Jeff Gorell (R-Camarillo), a naval reservist, returned to the State Capitol from Afghanistan, and just one day later (yesterday), Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Jesse Petrilla, a member of the Army National Guard, announced that he is being called to one year of active duty in Afghanistan, effective at the end of this month.

Last year, the Army sent Petrilla to Kentucky for four months to train on commanding a tank platoon.  Councilman Steve Baric wanted to leave Petrilla’s seat vacant during those four months instead of appointing a temporary replacement for Petrilla.  Councilmen Gary Thompson, Tony Beall, and Jerry Holloway wanted to appoint a temporary replacement for Petrilla.

In the midst of this controversy, Thompson resigned citing family health issues.  In the midst of the Thompson resignation, the council then appointed a permanent replacement for Thompson, bringing former Councilwoman Carol Gamble back to the Council.  (Gamble was a member of Rancho Santa Margarita’s inaugural city council until resigning in 2004 to care for her aging parents.)  The process of finding a permanent replacement for Thompson pushed aside the effort of finding a temporary replacement for Petrilla.

Assemblyman Gorell’s seat was held empty for a year until his return from Afghanistan, with little controversy.  In light of the controversy that occurred when the Rancho Santa Margarita City Council considered appointing a 4-month replacement for Petrilla, I think it would be most unlikely that the council would attempt to appoint a year-long replacement for Petrilla, instead leaving the seat empty until his return from Afghanistan.

Here’s Petrilla’s press release: Read the rest of this entry »

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The Plaintive wail of Civility

Posted by Brenda Higgins on April 11, 2012

Disclaimer: I was a candidate for Yorba Linda City Council in 2010. THIS is an opinion piece, intended for entertainment and reality checks. I am an equal opportunity offender, read at your own risk.

I have a great deal of respect for only one of the members of the current city council in Yorba Linda and that is Jim Winder. He has served, and resided in this city for decades. His service has come to us at great personal cost to him. He has been disrespected, unfairly accused and periodically ridiculed without cause. Yet he shows up consistently, is polite, prepared and concerned for the well being of our city. These things can not be said about any of the other council members.

John Anderson’s mean spirit and agenda of personal vendettas has never been well hidden. Nancy Rikel and Mark Schwing answer to and for him. Their public discussions consistently appear unnatural or rehearsed. The clear impression is that they are Anderson’s mouth pieces. They all portray themselves as “fiscal conservatives”, they have given that term a foul sound and connotation. If fiscal conservative means that they only agree to spend money on their pet projects or the pet projects of their friends and supporters, then okay, they are fiscal conservatives. However their pattern of spending would embarrass many a democrat. They vote together, they were elected together, they have each others back in a twisted and dysfunctional way.

The mayor in Yorba Linda is voted in on a traditional rotating basis by the council, generally in order of when they were elected. Not so since Anderson has controlled the council. On each occasion that it would have been the turn of a Council member who was “not-one-of-us”, that council member was stepped over in favor of “one-of-us”. In 2008 that was Jan Horton. As the councilmember next in line, she was passed over in favor of John Anderson. By 2008 Jan had already become the “not-one-of-us” and was on the hit list. She was deprived of the opportunity to be mayor and that also enabled Mr. Anderson to be able to run against her for re-election as Mayor Anderson. In 2012, it was Jim Winder, whose turn it was to be mayor, but Anderson’s majority passed him over in favor of Schwing. Mark Schwing will now be running for re-election as Mayor Schwing. In his last year, after many decades of service to this community, the Anderson lackeys could serve up one final dose of indignity to Jim Winder and deprive him of his last tenure as Mayor. Winder is termed out, and will not run again. All it really accomplished was to confirm that they are pandering jerks.

Tom Lindsey portrays himself as the “true” conservative. That would be highly relevant if any issues of social import or civil rights issue come before the council, but that’s not likely. The majority of Andersons’ council has abandoned Lindsey and he is left to align with the lame duck portion of the council alongside Jim Winder. Lindsey’s view on fiscal or any issue is rendered largely irrelevant,. A difficult lesson to learn for Lindsey, as he aligned with Anderson in the eleventh hour before the 2010 campaign began. They ran as a “slate”. During the 2010 campaign, when questioned about the ugly hit pieces and robo-calls directed towards Jan Horton, both Lindsey and Anderson diverted their eyes from the crowd when they answered. Mr. Anderson’s “I did not write that piece”, may essentially, technically, be true, but it clearly made him uncomfortable to say those carefully chosen words. Lindsey, for whom the 2010 campaign was his second try for a council seat, was intent on being elected. I have not asked him how he’s feeling now in 2012, with 20/20 hindsight, about his 2010 choice to align with Anderson. I have observed him to suffer the same punishment that Jan Horton and then Hank Weeda did. If you run with “them” and then acquire any different view or opinion, you are ostracized. So much for the fantasy that once we’re elected we can have collegial respect for differing view points.

Jan Horton is not a member of the council at this time, but her effect is no less pertinent than those seated. She is a regular attender, proclaiming accountability, tranparency and spewing her point of view of the incompetence and lack of ethics of the current council. The existing situation, with the Anderson wing, disrespectful of Winder, and indignant for Lindsey and his turn coat antics, is smoldering fire anyway. Then Jan shows up and brings the gasoline in the form of her vitriole, her repetitive and shrill allegations, her husband with a camera, and her allies. She shows little in the way of tact and self control and she manages to stoke the flames of contention, discord and animosity on every issue, and at each council appearance or online discussion.

The counterpart to Jan is Ed Rakochy. Unelected, regular attender, but “One-of-us” along with the regular appearance of other YLRRR (Yorba Linda Residents for Responsible Representation) members. The vigilante group that originally got Jan Horton and John Anderson elected, (yes as with any true rivalry, they began and friends and cohorts), has its regular and scripted attenders, commenting favorably on the moves of the Anderson majority, standing on their soap boxes and waving their flags, pretending this is even handed democracy, and proclaiming how ‘fiscally conservative’ the current majority council are.

I have rarely been able to stomach a whole meeting of this circus atmosphere, it’s a charade and not open democratic discourse. The pontification goes on for hours.

I am acquainted in some fashion with each of these individuals who are driving the toxicity in our city government, and this I know. Each and every one of them believes firmly that he/she is doing the “right thing” for the city. My opinion and observation is that they are each blinded by their own adrenaline rush from this ongoing combat. The salient point that they keep missing, is that the majority of the residents of the city are not “one-of-us”, and are also not the constantly contentious “one-of-them”. I don’t see any of these regular players stepping away from their entrenched positions long enough to have a healthy discussion on points upon which they might actually agree.

This is not good for anyone. This is not good for our city. I can only hope that voters refuse to get caught up in the rhetoric, that good and independent, unaligned candidates step forward in the next election. Politics is like square dancing, if you get too attached to your partner or your moves, you’ll eventually step on your own toes and get kicked out of the dance. We can only hope.

 

 

 

 

Posted in Yorba Linda | Tagged: , , , , | 8 Comments »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 39th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 10, 2012

UPDATED 2:45 PM With Explanation.

Many may be asking the question as to why we are handicapping this race along with CD 38, since they are not considered to be in play. I simply retort that we will cover every race no matter how one-sided over the next few weeks.

Once again thank you to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website as they are extremely informative in showing exactly what each district covers.

Republicans have 10 point advantage in this seat although DTS voters are likely to lean a bit more conservative in this district.  Republican won every major race in this seat back in both 2010 and 2008.

With the addition of a large chunk of Los Angeles County and all of Chino Hills I expect to see some pretty heavy campaigning from the Ed Royce who does not have the high level of name ID in these portions of his new district.

As stated before, the Incumbent is Congressman Ed Royce a solid Republican who has been a consistently good vote during his tenure. I pick on him a bit because I believe he now owns Red County, but he is actually a really nice person if you ever interact with him in public.

His challengers include D’ Marie Mulattieri a Community Volunteer from Orange. She is listed as running with No Party Preference on the ballot.

The other challenger is Jay Chen a Businessmann/School Boardmember who is not in the Orange County portion of the district. He is listed as a Democrat on the ballot.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Ed Royce & Jay Chen

The factors at play- As noted in the first post I have gotten a couple of e-mails asking me to further explain what factors are at play that made me arrive at my prediction.

Ed Royce is the only Republican on the ballot in what is a conservative seat. He has incumbency, a huge war chest, and a solid campaign team behind him. Knowing Royce he will campaign very hard in the primary as he always does a really good job of working the district.

D’ Marie Mulattieri will get her fair share of votes based on being the no party preference candidate, which makes her effectively the only non-politico in the race. Without a huge financial backing though to get her message out, I just don;t think that she will be able to advance to the top two.

Jay Chen is an elected official who has been on the ballot before thus giving him some name ID and an idea of how to run a campaign. Being the only Democrat is what puts him over the top though, since Democrats have a 10 point advantage over DTS voters in this district.

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