2012 Primary Election Predictions: 49th Congressional District
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 12, 2012
Last prediction post of the day.
We have a new U.S. Representative in Orange County even though it only covers a very tiny portion of South County.
Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.
CD 49 is a mix of the northern coastal part of San Diego and also the Southernmost tip of Orange County. It has a 14 point Republican registration advantage and a conservative leaning DTS voter base.
Much like some of the other conservative seats that I have referenced, this one has had a Republican victory in every major race back in 2008 and 2010. Nothing should change in 2012 unless the incumbent decides to drop out to pursue other interests.
Incumbent Congressman Darrel Issa has found his way up to Orange County. This is a pretty good trade off for Orange County residents to get Darrell Issa as opposed to Ken Calvert being one of our Congressional Representatives.
His challengers include:
Jerry Tetalman a Registered Nurse/Realtor who is running as a Democrat.
Dick Eiden a Retired Attorney who is running as No Party Preference.
Albin Novinec a Realtor who is running as No Party Preference.
The factors at play- Darrell Issa is the only incumbent, the only Republican, and has the highest name ID in this district.
The 2 candidates running as NPP will both split the vote of DTS voters who are already low turnout voters in primaries.
The lone Democrat will pull votes based on party and will likely do enough to get the party to support him through June.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:
Darrell Issa & Jerry Tetalman