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Posts Tagged ‘Ron Varasteh’

2012 General Election Predictions: 48th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 12, 2012

After looking at a one of the most competitive seats in California yesterday, we know go back to the boring and obvious. In this case though the boring and obvious looks to be a good thing for Republicans.

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

As you can see from the map Republicans not only hold a 17% registration advantage over Democrats, but Democrats are holding just a slim 7% advantage over DTS voters. With DTS voters leaning more conservative in this area it leads to what will likely be one of the slam dunk races in Orange County.

Congressman Dana Rohrabacher has held this seat for a while and has strong name ID especially in Huntington Beach & Costa Mesa which are the 2 largest cities in the district. Ron Varasteh just simply does not have the name ID.

Results in the primary also show that Rohrabacher is in a strong position to win with over 65& of the vote:

United States Representative; District 48

  • Dana Rohrabacher, Republican ………. 73,302 votes 66.3%
  • Ron Varasteh, Democratic ………. 31,912 votes 28.9%
  • Alan Schlar ………. 5,355 votes 4.8%

Varasteh ran directly in line with voter registration for his party and with Schlar running as a DTS candidate his votes will likely split between Rohrabacher and Varasteh.

Fundraising also is an advantage for Rohrabacher as when I tried to pull up the financial numbers for Ron Varasteh on the FEC website it informed me that he had no information to report. Rohrabacher reports over $280,000 cash on hand after the primary.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Dana Rohrabacher

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2012 Primary Election Predictions: 48th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 12, 2012

Now back to the boring and obvious races for Congress, we move on to the 48th Congressional District which covers coastal Orange County.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat is currently a Republican stronghold with a 17 point registration advantage. Also, in 2008 and 2010 Republicans one every single major race in this district. Even after redistricting took place, it is clear that this seat is not in play. DTS voters in this district almost outnumber Democrats, lagging by just 7 points in registration.

Incumbent Congressman Dana Rohrabacher has represented a portion of this district as part of his old one. He also picks up some of the old parts of the old John Campbell district. With the amount of name ID he has it will be very tough to see a candidate put up a serious fight in this race.

I don’t know why, but I genuinely dislike his website. My hope is that he switches to something a little bit less busy.

His challengers include:

Ron Varasteh an Engineer/Small Businessman who is running as a Democrat.

Alan Schlar a Marketing Sales Executive who is running with No Party Preference.

The factors at play- Dana Rohrabacher is the only viable candidate in this race for a large number of reasons, including name ID, campaign experience, party affiliation, ballot designation, etc…

Between the other candidates running it comes down to a couple of factors. Do Democrats turn out to vote at a higher rate than DTS voters? Do Republicans who perhaps are more moderate vote for the (NPP) candidate instead of Rohrabacher or Varasteh.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Dana Rohrabacher & Ron Varasteh

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