OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

AT&T wields enormous power in Sacramento

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 26, 2012

This just came across the wire from the Stop Special Interest Now campaign. (Full Disclosure: Custom Campaigns is doing consulting work for Stop Special Interest Money): Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in California | 8 Comments »

Broader Implication of the Supreme Court’s Ruling on Arizona’s Immigration Law

Posted by Peggy Huang on April 25, 2012

Today, the Supreme Court heard oral argument regarding the constitutionality of the Arizona’s immigration law.  The central issue is whether preemption could prevent states from promulgating laws and regulations in the sphere traditionally considered under the federal jurisdiction.  Judging from Justices Anthony Kennedy and Sonia Sotomayors’ comments, it appears that the Supreme Court is not persuaded by the Obama Administration’s argument that because immigration is under the federal jurisdiction, the states cannot enact laws to protect themselves even if the federal government had failed to enforce its own laws.  Justice Sotomayor found the Solicitor General’s argument confusing and that his argument was not going well before the Court.

While the Supreme Court’s decision affects whether states could enact and enforce its own immigration law, I believe that the broader implication of the Court’s decision will be on the issue of what legal recourse could be pursued when government officials fail to fulfill their constitutional duties to enforce the laws that they disagree with.  What comes to my mind is the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeal’s decision to send the Proposition 8 case back to the California Supreme Court on the issue of whether the proponents of Proposition 8 has standing to argue the constitutionality of Proposition 8 in federal courts when government officials (i.e. former Governor Arnold Schwartzenegger and Attorney General Jerry Brown) refused to defend Proposition 8 in federal courts.  While the California Supreme Court’s decision to give standing to the proponents of Proposition 8 was based on the idea that if government officials could decide not to enforce voters-passed laws because the government officials disagree with the law, then the populist idea of referendums and propositions would be rendered meaningless.

Here, if the Supreme Court finds that Arizona could enact immigration laws to protect its border, the legal door is ajar to permit states to enact laws in areas where the federal government refuses to enforce, or in states where ordinary citizens could pass laws via propositions, citizens could pass laws without fearing that they have no legal recourse if their elected officials refuse to uphold the laws.

Posted in National | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

Bay Area Council Endorses Comprehensive Campaign Finance Reform Supports Stop Special Interest Money Now Initiative

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 25, 2012

I just heard from the Stop Special Interest Money Now Campaign on some big news (Full Disclosure: Custom Campaigns is doing consulting work on the campaign). Apparently the campaign received the endorsement from the Bay Area Council.

This is a sign of some serious momentum from the campaign and it will be exciting to see the campaign unfold over the next few months.

Here is the press release:

Let’s Start Taking Back California

Bay Area Council Endorses Comprehensive Campaign Finance Reform Supports Stop Special Interest Money Now Initiative

(SACRAMENTO, CA)—Today, the Stop Special Interest Money Now campaign welcomed the endorsement of the Bay Area Council, a reform minded public-policy advocacy organization representing businesses from the Bay Area. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in California | Leave a Comment »

The Story of High Speed Rail Lobbyist Troy Edgar

Posted by OC Insider on April 25, 2012

As we’re still getting to know the candidates for Assembly in the 72nd District, one question I keep hearing people ask over and over again is: Does Troy Edgar still support wasting taxpayer dollars on fanciful high speed rail?

Just as importantly he should come clean about how much taxpayer money he spent traveling around the country lobbying for high speed rail.

Everyone knows that Troy Edgar was a lifelong Democrat and only switched parties when he decided to run for office.   Unfortunately for Orange County, despite the ‘R’ next to his name he has governed like a Chicago Democrat.  Edgar’s push for an illegal trash contract and constant desire to raise taxes and fees are well known.

What is a little less known is that, for a brief period of time, Los Alamitos paid a large sum in order to join the Orangeline Development Authority (OLDA).  At the time, the mission of OLDA was promoting a high speed maglev rail line that would run from Irvine to Palmdale.

Troy Edgar was named Vice Chairman of OLDA and quickly became one of the most active proponents of this high speed rail boondoggle.

He quickly started lobbying Orange County cities and agencies.  He frivolously worked on getting the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) on to support the project.  Before presenting to OCTA, he bragged about “his previous lobbying efforts toward the OCTA to prepare for this event.”

Fortunately for Orange County and California, OCTA turned Troy Edgar and his levitating high speed train down.  No doubt, by saying no to Troy Edgar, OCTA saved taxpayers billions.

Here are just a few of the problems that OCTA found with Troy’s Train.

From OCTA July 26, 2007 Staff Report:

“OCTA has not committed right of way”

“Financial plan appears extremely optimistic”

“$18 average fare is assumed for 20-mile trip”

From OCTA CEO Arthur Leahy, August 9, 2007 Memo:

“The Orangeline financial plan appears extremely optimistic.”

“Investors expressed concern about the Orangeline’s ability to secure right-of-way for the project and to receive the necessary environmental approvals.”

“Only one of the Orangeline’s 14 member cities, Los Alamitos, is located in Orange County, and none of the seven the seven Orange County cities directly bordering the PE Railroad right-of-way has joined the Orangeline.” (OLDA Minutes May 9, 2007)

“In March 2007, the La Palma City Council adopted a resolution explicitly opposing the use of the PE Railroad right-of-way for any future transit project, including the Orangeline.”

Furthermore, in true Chicago Democrat style, Troy Edgar could not take no for an answer and wanted OCTA to bully Orange County cities that did not want this project going through their town.

La Palma city councilman, Ralph Rodriguez spoke in opposition to the project.

“The City of La Palma opposes this particular project since it would be disruptive to the residential properties that are adjacent to the subject right-of-way” (OCTA Transit Planning and Operations Committee Meeting May 10, 2007)

How did Troy Edgar react?  He urged OCTA to ignore the city of La Palma.

“Troy Edgar, Councilman, City of Los Alamitos, stated this is an opportunity to provide clean technology and asked staff to keep the Orangeline project as an option and append the Long-Range Transportation Plan to include this project. (OCTA Transit Planning and Operations Committee Meeting May 10, 2007)

Not being able to take a hint and realize that he is lobbying for a tax dollar black hole that is not wanted by either the impacted cities or the taxpayers who would have to foot the bill, Troy Edgar decided it was a good idea travel to New York and lobby private investors for this project.  He even brags about it in the OC Register.

“He will talk later this month to potential investors in New York”

I wonder just how much this trip cost.  In fact, I would like to know how much all of Edgar’s lobbying efforts cost.  He traveled all over the state on behalf of this project. In addition to his OLDA per meeting stipend of $100 (yes, he took a stipend for his OLDA meetings), how much did taxpayers have to pay for all of his travel?

Can we trust Troy Edgar to oppose High Speed Rail if we send him to Sacramento? I would have to say, absolutely not! If this entire saga makes one thing clear, it is that Troy Edgar cannot be trusted with taxpayer funds.

Posted in 72nd Assembly District, Los Alamitos, Uncategorized | Tagged: , | 5 Comments »

If only I were the wagering type…

Posted by Brenda Higgins on April 25, 2012

Not good news for fans of the Brea Police Department. 

In a not surprising alignment, Winder-Lindsey voted in favor of renewing with Brea PD, Anderson-Schwing-Rikel voted to begin a new contract with OCSD.  If anyone reading this is surprised by this result, I have some ocean front property in Arizona I’d love to speak to you about. 

Many things were not considered in the evaluation of the bids.  The overall sensibility seems the most overlooked.  A new station is needed, new squad cars, new equipment, guns radios, phones, desks, copy machines for any agency that replaces Brea PD …..and the OSCD per their proposal is going to staff up and set up all of this at a reduced cost, saving the city of Yorba Linda $1 Million dollars each year, $5 Million over the life of their contract.  That is more than $80,000.00 per month, less than the department who has been providing this service for 42 years, and they are fully equipped and staffed up.  That’s fantastic, and the county officials who developed this bid and business model should really be consulting in private industry because in this economy, we could all use some advice on how to do that kind of magic. .

Anaheim was never realistically in the running, which is sad, because they had a great presentation, and a sensible, believable bid.   They impressed with their availability of services, special teams and technology, as well as their knowledge and shared geography with Yorba Linda.  I can not imagine why it was never proposed that Anaheim be awarded a partial contract for East Yorba Linda.  The response time for Brea PD to East Yorba Linda has been an ongoing complaint.  There are many occasions that Brea and Anaheim jurisdiction and enforcement overlap, why not apportion service geographically?  The Anaheim station on Wier Canyon road is not realistically a good match  for the West side of Yorba Linda given the long, so why not split it? This was not considered.  A wholesale replacement of the entire contract was the only consideration.  No kind of holistic approach, reworking or restructuring the relationship with Brea was undertaken.  I assume, as many residents do, that it is because the contract was destined to go to OCSD.  The public opinion on keeping the contract with Brea seems, as with many issues, to have been largely ignored by the 3 majority council.  

I am saddened and at the same time inspired that 50 residents had the wherewithal to stay till the 3am vote,  God bless them for their stamina, but I’m surprised they thought that their opinion mattered. 

I wish I had different news to report.  I wish I had written this blog a week, a month, a year ago, because I could have. (or even 6 years ago, Brea, who was passing out the Koolaid then?)  No  surprise of any kind here.  Democracy  and due process have died a slow painful death in Yorba Linda.  Every resident has the option to be active, get involved, and vote in the next election. Each time I see this Kangaroo court convene I hope that this is the time that the mainstream residents in Yorba Linda become aware of the situation at City Hall and the utter dominance of one special interest group by virtue of their ownership of three seats.  Nothing will change, the status quo will easily be maintained if the voting public continues to show apathy and fear of the YLRRR, which was so pervasive  in the 2010 election.

Posted in Yorba Linda | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 74

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 25, 2012

(UPDATED 4:52 PM With Changes to the profile of Scott Peotter).

AD 74 Central Committee is the last of the race s that I will be handicapping for the June election. It has been a long and interesting process, and I hope that all of you readers have enjoyed these.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Emily Sanford– She is currently Scott Baugh’s alternate on the Central Committee and has been a volunteer with the OCGOP. I have heard people say nothing but nice things about her.

Christina L. Shea– She is best known for being one of the Republican members of the always fun Irvine City Council. In 2010 she was unable to run for re-election due to term limits.

Allan Bartlett– The leader of the OC Ron Paul fan club. He is a Libertarian leaning Republican that was recently involved in the blocked endorsement of John Campbell. *Incumbent.

John Draper– I don’t know a lot about him, although he is currently on the Central Committee and appears to be part of the tea party wing of the committee. *Incumbent.

Scott Baugh– Currently the Chairman of the Republican Party of Orange County also former Assembly Republican leader. He is usually way out in first place on election night. *Incumbent.

Greg Baker– I could find nothing on him.

Jon Aiken– Jon used to be on the Central Committee and has been a long time volunteer with the OC GOP since at least 2006.

Don Hansen– He is currently the Mayor of Huntington Beach and also rumored to be considering a run for the Orange County Board of Supervisors 2nd District.

Bill Dunlap– He ran for the Central Committee back in 2010 for the 70th district. In fact, he came quite close to winning the seat being just 250 votes short of defeating Allan Bartlett for the 6th and final spot.

Rhonda Rohrabacher– The wife of Congressman Dana Rohrabacher and also a political strategist. She has a lot of knowledge of the OC GOP and how it works. She is not an incumbent, but she will have residual name ID from Dana Rohrabacher.

Thomas A. Fuentes Jr.– The son of popular Republican Party Chairman Tom Fuentes. He was recently appointed as an alternate on the Central Committee created by the very classy Matt Holder.

Scott PeotterHe is a conservative attorney and also is best known to those that run in the same circles as members of the Family Action PAC. Apparently I mixed him up with his brother. Scott is a developer, Mansoor aide, former Newport Beach Planning Commissioner, and long-time GOP activist.

Gary R. Morse– I found when searching that he is an organizer with the Newport Mesa Tea Party Patriots.

Vanessa Mathews– I could find nothing on her.

Daniel Marshall– An Attorney who I could also find no information on.

Jeff Matthews– He and Vanessa Matthews are likely to split the vote by having similar names despite the fact that the last names are spelled slightly different.

Richard “Dick” Palmer– He is a Community Volunteer who I was unable to find much information about through Google.

John Warner– He is also an incumbent on the Central Committee and in my opinion will battle it out with Allan Bartlett for the 6th slot.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Scott Baugh
2. Emily Sanford
3. Don Hansen
4. Rhonda Rohrabacher
5. Thomas A. “T.J.” Fuentes
6. Toss Up John Warner/Allan Bartlett

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 73

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 25, 2012

AD 73 is a bastion of conservatism, and it will be a safe Republican seat in both the June and November election for Assemblywoman Harkey.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Dave Duringer– He is a gun trust attorney who I believe is involved in the tea party (not 100% sure on that. He also ran for the Central Committee back in 2010 prior to redistricting when his district was the 71st.

Mary Young– She has been an activist with the Republican Party of Orange County for a very long time. She is also campaigning the hardest of anybody I have ever seen for a Central Committee seat. *Incumbent.

Mike Munzing– He was at one point running against John Campbell for Congress and then wisely decided to run for Aliso Viejo City Council. He is very good at marketing himself from what I have witnessed through his many activities. *Incumbent.

Alice Anderson– She is currently an incumbent in this district. I would encourage those involved in OCGOP politics to seek out a way to sign her nomination papers if you live in this district. *Incumbent.

Norm Dickinson– Many people who I have talked to have said that he is the foremost expert on the bylaws in the Republican Party of Orange County. I cannot see that I disagree from what I have witnessed. *Incumbent.

Steve Magdziak– He is one of the few that has set up a website for his Central Committee race http://www.stevemagdziak.com/ His website does not include much information about his background but if I had to guess I would think he was part of the Ron Paul crowd.

Chandra Chell– She is active in Republican politics through Atlas PAC among other things and she has also been involved in the CRA among other Republican volunteer organizations. *Incumbent.

Linda Barnes– From a bit of research I have learned that she is part of the leadership team with OC912 a conservative group which is tied to the tea party.

Greg Woodard– He recently friended me on Facebook. After having a conversation with him I found that he is involved in a lot of conservative groups including Atlas PAC and Family Action PAC. He was also appointed to a seat on the OC GOP Central Committee making him an incumbent as well. *Incumbent.

Nancy Padberg– She was previously on the Central Committee but was one of the members that was ousted in this past election. As an elected official on the South Orange County Community College District, her name ID will be high.

Tony Beall– He currently is an incumbent on both the Central Committee and on the Rancho Santa Margarita City Council. He also has been a conservative voice on the issues involving the Capistrano Unified School District. *Incumbent.

Kevin Richardson– According to the very little that I could find out about him he is one of the co-founders of SOC912 which I referenced above (OC912).

Nina R. Davar– I am seeing a trend here as when I did a bit of googling I found her name attached to SOC912 as well as other candidates with tea party ties.

John C. Drew– A writer for Examiner.com on Republican Party of Orange County Republican politics. He had a lot of information on his bio including the fact that he is an award-winning political scientist.

Susan A. Bock– I was unable to find any information on her.

Nesa Anderson– She is a Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman from what I believe is San Clemente. She also won the lottery to appear first on the ballot.

Evan P. Chafee– He will appear on the ballot as a Marketing Sales Representative. All I could find about him is that he is from San Juan Capistrano.

Mark Dobrilovic– He is an activist that I have heard about tat runs in the Tea Party circles. He also ran for Mission Viejo City Council in 2010.

Jon Steven Fleischman– He is a major player in Republican Party Politics and he runs te popular Flash Report website. I definitely see him winning one of the 6 available seats.

Roy Fussell– A Realtor who is running, I was unable to find much more information.

Paul Hebbard– He is listed on the ballot as a Certified Public Accountant and outside of that I know very little.

Michael Kogus– He is listed on the ballot as a Business Owner, but like some of the other challengers I was unable to find any information on him.

Erik Stolaski– He is a Tea Party Republican who I believe worked on the Nelson for Supervisor campaign if I recall correctly.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Alice Anderson
2. Tony Beall
3. Mary Young
4. Mike Munzing
5.  Greg Woodard Jon Steven Fleischman
 This was a mistake on my part when writing the post. My apologies to Greg Woodard who is a really nice guy and a very solid Republican.
6. Nancy Padberg

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 72

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 25, 2012

AD 72 not only has one of the most hotly contested races for Assembly but it also has one of the most hotly contested Central Committee races.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Janet Nguyen– She is currently the Orange County Supervisor from the 1st District and an incumbent on the Central Committee too. *Incumbent.

John W. Briscoe– John W. Briscoe is President of the Fountain Valley Republican Assembly and a CRA State Officer.  He is also a CPA on the Orange County Property Tax Appeals board and a past Chairman of the Fountain Valley Planning Commission.  (He is not Ocean View School District’s John F. Briscoe.)

Mark McCurdy– He is currently an elected member of the Fountain Valley Council and is serving as the Mayor Pro Tem. Also he is an incumbent on the Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Dennis R. Catron– I am not sure if it is the same person but according to a bit of research that I did a Dennis Catron used to be the Vice-Chairman of the OC GOP back in 1986.

Brian Hoops– According to some research, I couldn’t quite pinpoint it but their was a Brian Hoop linked to a Tea Party meet-up group.

Matthew Harper– An elected member of the Huntington Beach City Council nd current candidate for the 72nd Assembly District seat. *Incumbent.

Dean Grose– He s a former member of the Los Alamitos City Council who got into some hot water for his watermelon e-mail that he sent out. *Incumbent.

Kermit Marsh– He is a former member of the Westminster CIty Council who left because he chose to do so, not because of term limits or losing an election. *Incumbent.

Patrick Dooley– The second of the brothers Dooley to pull papers for this office. He currently has a profile up on the Campaign For Liberty website as well.

Michael Gates– I could find no information on him. He is listed as a Businessman/Attorney on the ballot.

Patricia Ross– Although I was unable to find any political information out about her, she is involved in charity work with local schools.

Diane A. Lenning– She is a perennial candidate for the office of California State Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Steve A. Nagel– Currently an elected member of the Fountain Valley City Council and the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Mary Tuong Van Pham– This is the wife of Assembly candidate Long Pham. She will definitely help boost the name ID for Long Pham.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Janet Nguyen
2. Kermit Marsh
3. Steve Nagel
4. Mark McCurdy
5. Matthew Harper
6. John W. Briscoe

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Final Thoughts on Police Contract Hearing

Posted by Brenda Higgins on April 24, 2012

The public hearing is tonight, Tuesday April 24, 2012.  I have tried to stay up to speed on the varying positions and share information that has been available to me.  I have encouraged residents to be present if they have an opinion, and it is entirely possible that this issue will likely be voted upon by the Council and finalized tonight.

In the recent discussions of this issue many residents expressed dislike of Brea Police and support for anyone else.  This was usually due to an incident or interaction with an on duty officer. Residents on the East side complain of excessive response time.  Residents have complained about rise in crime in Yorba Linda in recent years, as well as over zealous traffic enforcement.

I have read that 20% of the Brea Police force resides in Yorba Linda.  I am acquainted with a few of them, and the uncertainty of this situation has definitely had an impact on those families, as will a termination of the contract. 

Since 2006, and since the last renewal of the Brea contract, there has been ample evidence that the current council members have had a desire to explore other options.  Although there has been complaint of the lack of actual notice to the public of the Notice of Termination vote on November 1, certainly Brea Police have had time and opportunity to impress the community that they desire to continue policing. I have no idea if there were concerted Public Relations effort in the past years,  the point I am making is that even if the notice of the issue voted on in November was not technically appropriate, the fact that we had a council seated who desired to terminate this relationship has not in any way been a secret. 

I am aware that there are law enforcement personnel, who are residents, who support the bid of Anaheim Police.  It has been argued that Anaheim is only interested in increasing the efficiency of service to Anaheim.  I not in possession of any evidence to support that contention that Anaheim does not have the best interests of Yorba Linda residents in mind in submitting their bid.  I have heard arguments that Anaheim is not capable of expanding to handle the extra work load and that they are over burdened now.  I have not seen any evidence to support that.

The Sheriff bid has vociferous supporters.  I have expressed my concern related to the bid and my perception of it’s incompleteness and a few instances of Pollyanish approach to the costs and constraints of setting up a station in Yorba Linda.  It has been alleged by some residents that the OCSD is “Corrupt”, there is no evidence to support that claim.   In fact, the evidence is to the contrary.  When Sheriff Sandra Hutchens assumed her current role in that agency, it was in the wake of tremendous controversy and scandal.  In hearing the Sheriff herself discuss this during her recent campaign, she indicated that there were enormous changes to the department after she took the helm, a large scale restructuring, not to mention to large job of restoring public faith in the troubled agency. There is no evidence to suggest ongoing ethical challenges in the department and to saddle the current Sheriff with the sins of her predecessors seems inherently unfair.

In short, these are all public agencies, flawed, but doing their job in the context in which they are currently employed.  I continue to be concerned at the rhetoric and spin applied to advocate the different agencies, and while I understand the enthusiasm of the public, there should be no fear or concern if your team doesn’t win this ball game. 

Further, given what I have seen on some of the web pages promoting one agency or another, the tendency to misrepresent the content of the bids is unfortunately high.  I encourage the concerned residents to go to the city website, where you can view all the pertinent documents as well as the side by side comparison.

Residents are entitled to voice their opinions and concerns this evening.  I would encourage all residents in attendance, regardless of what side you are on and who you like/don’t like or agree/don’t agree with, remember that our City Council Members are elected officials.  They are seated because the majority of voters in our city supported and elected them.  They each serve for nominal financial compensation and usually at a significant personal cost and investment of time.  For that reason, they are entitled to courtesy.  The hearing process is part of our constitutional guarantees of due process of law, and as such the process itself is worthy of our courtesy and respect.

Finally, all three of the agencies in the bidding process are fine and competent law enforcement agencies.  Regardless of anyone’s opinion of how they stack up, the bottom line is that the representatives there tonight, represent the men and women who put on a uniform and put their lives on the line each day so that you and I don’t have to.  Please express opinions in a manner that is respectful of this office.

I for one, would love to see the rhetoric toned down significantly and a dramatic turn in the politics as usual in Yorba Linda.  We are a close community of residents all significantly invested in preserving our way of life.  We can certainly accomplish this best by being respectful of each other, respectful of the process and those involved in it.

Posted in Yorba Linda | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 69

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 24, 2012

AD 69 is a tough place to find Republicans, so it is always nice to see a contested race for the Central Committee here. This race did manage to garner less than 20 candidates though thus making it one of the tame ones.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Charles Hart– Former candidate for Santa Ana Mayor and current appointed member of the Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Thomas Anthony Gordon– Clearly we here at OC Political have to cheer for our fellow blogger Thomas Gordon who is running for re-election. *Incumbent.

Brett Elliott Franklin– He is a former member of the Santa Ana City Council and current elected member of the OC GOP Central Committee.

Timothy “Tim” Ryan Whitacre– Tim is a current elected member of the Central Committee and also the member who chose to challenge Scott Baugh for the Chairmanship this past year. *Incumbent.

Robert Morris Hammond– He is currently the only hope for Republicans for the Orange County Board of Education and is a nice guy from my interactions with him. *Incumbent. (Full Disclosure: He is a Custom Campaigns client.)

Cuong Sinh Cao– He is a very quiet individual who has been a solid vote on the Central Committee during his tenure. *Incumbent.

Gwen A. Dyrud– Gwen Dyrud was appointed to this seat at some point in the past year and can run as an incumbent on the ballot. *Incumbent.

Bryan Carter– A software engineer that was hard to find any information about.

Lupe Moreno– She is an Office Specialist who is best known for her work with the Minuteman Project and Jim Gilchrist.

Glen Stroud– I have met him once before and he is actually a nice guy. He is listed on the ballot as a Retired Recreation Supervisor.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Robert Morris Hammond
2. Brett Elliot Franklin
3. Thomas Anthony Gordon
4. Charles Hart
5. Cuong Sinh Cao
6. Timothy “Tim” Ryan Whitacre

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