Posted by Newsletter Reprint on June 14, 2012
This came over the wire from the Registrar of Voters two hours ago…
Unofficial Ballot Count Complete
June 14, 2012 – We have finished all of our ballot counting and required audit functions from the June 5th Primary Election. Registrar of Voters, Neal Kelley, will certify the final results tomorrow following the preparation of the Statement of Votes. Our election results this evening indicate “unofficial” until we finalize tomorrow. We will be including write-in votes tomorrow as well.
Posted in Orange County | Tagged: ballots, Orange County Registrar of Voters | 1 Comment »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 14, 2012
On Friday evening, there were 17,125 uncounted ballots.
By Monday evening, there were 14,724 uncounted ballots, meaning 2,401 ballots were resolved on Monday.
By Tuesday evening, there were 9,528 uncounted ballots, meaning 5,196 ballots were resolved on Tuesday.
By last night, there were 4,625 uncounted ballots, meaning 4,903 ballots were resolved on Wednesday.
At the rate they’re going, it’s highly likely the Registrar of Voters completes the vote count today.
For visual learners:
There are only a few races that could still be affected by the outstanding ballots.
Those two races are the only ones in all of Orange County where the gap between the elected and the unelected (or 2nd and 3rd place in those fighting to advance to November from primaries) is 0.3% or less. It is highly unlikely the 4,625 outstanding ballots would move the needle any more than 0.3%.
There are a couple races where the current leads would be unaffected by the remaining 4,625 ballots, but where the gap could close enough to lead the 3rd or 4th place candidate to pay for a recount to advance to November from the primaries. (I’m assuming no one’s going to pay for a recount for any party’s Central Committee.)
| 69th Assembly District | ||
| Tom Daly (D) | 10,862 | 39.3% |
| Jose “Joe” Moreno (R) | 5,933 | 21.5% |
| Julio Perez (D) | 5,649 | 20.4% |
| Michele Martinez (D) | 4,614 | 16.7% |
| Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D) | 594 | 2.1% |
Team Perez is likely contemplating whether they’ll pay for a recount if they get within 1% of Jose Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno). Perez’s allies spent six figures trying to elect him, so the cost of a recount wouldn’t be out of the question for them.
| 72nd Assembly District | ||
| Troy Edgar (R) | 17,968 | 28.0% |
| Travis Allen (R) | 12,726 | 19.8% |
| Joe Dovinh (D) | 12,353 | 19.3% |
| Long Pham (R) | 12,325 | 19.2% |
| Albert Ayala (D) | 8,756 | 13.7% |
Long Pham is likely contemplating if he will pay for a recount if he gets within 0.5% of Travis Allen. It’s unlikely Joe Dovinh or his team have the financial resources to pay for a recount. Pham would need to dig into his own pockets for a recount. He’s already spent $100,000 of his personal funds on his campaign and making 2nd place to get to the November general election against Troy Edgar may be the only way he recoups that $100,000.
The 1% for Perez vs. the 0.5% for Pham is on the basis that Perez would be more aggressive than Pham in pursuing a recount, as Perez’s allies spent more and have deeper pockets to pay for a recount while Pham spent less and has more shallow (less deep?) pockets.
Posted in 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, Orange County, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Albert Ayala, ballots, Bill Dunlap, Francisco Barragan, Jeff Lalloway, Joe Dovinh, John Draper, Jose Moreno, Julio Perez, Ken L. Williams Jr., Long Pham, Michele Martinez, Orange County Registrar of Voters, Paco Barragan, Ray Grangoff, Tom Daly, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 12, 2012
With last night’s OC GOP Flag Day Festivities, I didn’t really have time to draft a post last night, so I’ll just provide a short, sad update.
Voter turnout in Orange County in June’s election was at best 26.5%, and at worst 25.6%.
The Registrar of Voters reports that 412,225 voters’ ballots have been counted thus far from Tuesday’s election, with 1,612,415 voters registered for that election, indicating 25.6% of voters turned out. There are 14,724 uncounted ballots (though some of those will be invalidated [14,030 of those are provisionals]). Adding those ballots in brings OC up to 426,949 ballots, or 26.5% voter turnout.
That turnout is pathetic and depressing for democracy.
I guess the silver lining in this is that my vote counted for a larger share of the vote since so few people voted, as did yours, readers, as I imagine virtually everyone who reads this blog voted. (I mean: who visits a political blog who doesn’t vote?)
It could be worse, though: LA County’s 4,450,035 voters produced between 18.5% and 20.8% voter turnout.
Posted in Orange County | Tagged: voter turnout | 3 Comments »
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on June 10, 2012
This came over the wire from the Registrar of Voters on Friday…
Ballot Counting Wrapping Up
Provisional Processing to Start Monday
Shown at right this afternoon we have been cleaning the padding gum off of paper ballots cast at polling places. Our update this evening will include the majority of vote-by-mail, paper ballots and duplicated ballots.
Neal Kelley
Registrar of Voters
Needles in a Haystack
We are in the process of locating printers from our voting booths so that we can conduct the random 1% manual tally required by law of precincts from the June 5th election.
Pulling Rejected Ballots
Shown at left are the stacks of ballots that contain small amounts of rejected ballots. These ballots did not scan due to unreadable barcode images. We must find each ballot and scan it so that it is included in the final tally.
Final Clean-Up Process
1% Manual Tally Next Up
Our teams that will be conducting the manual count of 1% of precincts can be seen above preparing. They will also manually tally any device that did not come back with a complete security seal.
Poll Workers 4,800 | VBMs Mailed: 684,836 | VBMs Returned: 277,348
Undeliverable Rate Going Down
Shown at left are the undeliverable vote-by-mail ballots for this election. We have instituted several new initiatives in an effort to update voter addresses before they notify us (many do not). Our undeliverable rate for the June 5th election was 3.37% and in June of 2010 it was 3.7%. We expect this number to reduce even further in November.
Posted in Orange County | Tagged: Orange County Registrar of Voters | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 5, 2012
Posted in Orange County, Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 5, 2012
Well, info-junkies, 4600 of you have visited OC Political trying to find info on this election day. Results don’t come in for a little over an hour, so to tide you over, I’m live-blogging from my polling place.
This is my first time ever voting at the polls, as I’ve cast an absentee ballot in every election since I turned 18 years old.
At 6:52, I notice a Deborah Pauly for Supervisor sign at the main road leading to my polling place.
At 6:54, I find a half-full parking lot and get a relatively close parking space.
At 6:55, I enter. There’s some minor confusion as I surrender my absentee ballot. There are only two other voters present.
At 6:59, I begin voting.
For President, hm.
Ron Paul has a lot of online followers. Oh wait, Americans Elect’s online primary failed.
How about Mitt Romney? Polls show 2% of the American people believe his full first name is Mittens.
Sigh…
Republican Central Committee, 68th District
Clearly, the goal is to maximize the temptation for Brown Act violations at Central Committee.
Ah, the majority of the Orange City Council is on the ballot: Mayor Pro Tem Denis Bilodeau and Councilmen Jon Dumitru and Fred Whitaker.
Let’s see: Shawn Nelson will likely win in the 65th, and Janet Nguyen will likely win in the 72nd, so to put the majority of the Board of Supervisors on Central Committee, 68th District voters can vote for both Todd Spitzer and Deborah Pauly for Central Committee.
US Senate
I scroll over Orly Taitz’s name, but am concerned that I haven’t seen her naturalization certificate.
Dan Hughes is the interim Fullerton Police Chief. Oh, it’s not the same one?
Elizabeth Emken is the CRP-endorsed candidate. Wait, wasn’t CRP responsible for Watergate? Oh, different CRP?
US Representative, 39th District
Let’s see: White Republican Ed Royce, Asian Democrat Jay Chen, or white independent D’Marie Mulattieri.
According to conventional wisdom, Asian voters vote for Asian candidates. Conventional wisdom also says Republican voters vote for Republican candidates.
What’s an Asian Republican to do? Vote the color of my skin (though a different ethnicity) or vote my party/beliefs. Hm, skin color or beliefs?
State Senate, 37th District
Mimi Walters vs. Steve Young
So a character from The Drew Carey Show is running against an NFL star?
State Assembly, 68th District
Don Wagner vs. Christina Avalos
Yeah, I’ve got no lame wisecracks for this one. Sorry.
Judge of the Superior Court, Office #1
Deborah Chuang vs. Eugene Jizhak
Man, this is a boring streak on the ballot.
County Board of Education, Trustee Area 3
Hey, isn’t Ken Williams that doctor from the “No on 29” commercial?
County Supervisor, 3rd District
Spitzer vs. Pauly
Wait, didn’t Spitzer resign as Governor of New York in a prostitution scandal? And when did Pauly leave the cast of Jersey Shore? Why are these East Coasters carpetbagging to become Orange County Supervisor.
Oh, they’re different people. Darn.
Ballot Measures
Eh, I’m losing steam.
At 7:02, I finish voting.
Okay, sarcastic live blogging done. Real live blogging kicks in at 8:05 PM when the real results come in.
Posted in 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 68th Assembly District, Anaheim, California, Orange County, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: polls | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 5, 2012
Polls are now open in the June 5, 2012 Primary. Find your polling place here.
If you’re an absentee voter who hasn’t already submitted their ballot, find any polling place in Orange County, and drop it off before 8 PM today.
The Registrar of Voters reports that 198,235 out of 684,836 absentee ballots issued have been returned as of this morning, or a 28.9% voter turnout rate among absentee voters as of this morning.
There are 1,612,145 registered voters in Orange County, as of May 21 (the last day someone could register to vote to be eligible to vote in the June 5 election). That means 42.5% of all registered voters were issued absentee ballots. That also means 12.3% of registered voters in Orange County have turned out to vote as of this morning.
Posted in California, Orange County | Tagged: Absentee ballots, polls | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 4, 2012
Polls open in 12 hours for the June 5, 2012 Primary. Find your polling place here.
If you’re an absentee voter who hasn’t already submitted their ballot, find any polling place in Orange County, and drop it off tomorrow before 8 PM.
The Registrar of Voters reports that 181,327 out of 684,836 absentee ballots issued have been returned so far, or a 26.5% voter turnout rate among absentee voters so far.
Posted in California, Orange County | Tagged: polls | Leave a Comment »
Posted by OC Insider on June 2, 2012
Today, I received another great mail piece from Travis Allen for Assembly. This is the first hit piece that I received from Travis and I have to say it is probably the best hit piece have seen this cycle.
The image of Taxin Troy Edgar is definitely going to stick in my mind. I am attaching a scan of the piece to this post for people to check out.
Will this mail piece be enough to make the race competitive? I am not sure, but I a bet a lot of voters will have a picture of Taxin Troy Edgar in their heads when they vote on Tuesday.
Also, it looks like Travis has found one of Troy’s real weaknesses. Edgar’s horrible voting record on taxes and his refusal to sign the No New Tax Pledge might hunt him on Tuesday.
Here is a LINK to a Press Release that OC-Breeze posted about Edgar’s refusal to sign the No New Tax Pledge.
Posted in 72nd Assembly District, Fountain Valley, Fountain Valley School District, Garden Grove, Garden Grove Unified School District, Huntington Beach, Huntington Beach City School District, Huntington Beach Union High School District, Los Alamitos, Los Alamitos Unified School District, Ocean View School District, Orange County, Rossmoor, Rossmoor Community Services District, Santa Ana, Santa Ana Unified School District, Seal Beach, Sunset Beach Sanitary District, Surfside Colony Community Services District, Westminster, Westminster School District | Tagged: Long Pham, Tax Pledge, taxes, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | 1 Comment »
Posted by Honest Abe on May 30, 2012
One of our readers last week mentioned that I never made any prediction in the race for Orange County Judge between Eugene Jizhak and Deborah Chuang. Better late than never.
The candidates include:
Deborah Chuang– She is currently the incumbent in this race and had the misfortune of being in Office 1. The reason I say misfortune is because this is likely why her opponent chose to run here as opposed to in one of the other races. Prior to being a Judge in 2009 she was a Deputy Attorney General for 12 years after earning her J.D. from U.C. Berkeley School of Law.
Eugene Jizhak– He earned his J.D. from Newport University School of Law before becoming a general practice attorney. He has appeared on a lot of slate mailers that I have seen but does not appear to be running any direct mail pieces. According to his profile on slate mailers he appears to oppose the early release of “Insane Maniacs” which might be one of my favorite lines from this election.
The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is incumbency. Running in a race where all of Orange County votes you need a strong ballot statement (Jizhak did not get one), an open seat (Chuang is the incumbent), and a very strong campaign (Neither is campaigning very hard).
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winning candidate will be:
Deborah Chuang
Posted in Orange County | Tagged: Deborah Chuang, Eugene Jizhak, Judge | Leave a Comment »
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