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Looking at the November Ballot: Twelve Propositions Qualified

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 27, 2012

Well, tomorrow is the last day for an initiative or referendum to qualify for the November ballot.  With only one measure whose signatures are still pending verification (but that one appears to be falling far short of signature requirements), we now know which initiatives and referenda have made it to the November ballot.

Note the proposition numbers are tentative.  The Legislature can still add measures to the ballot (or remove the Safe, Clean, and Reliable Drinking Water Supply Act of 2012 from the ballot), which would alter the numbering of the propositions.  Here’s the list:

Proposition 30 – Safe, Clean, and Reliable Drinking Water Supply Act of 2012 (This was the water bond deal of 2009 authored by then-Senate Republican Leader Dave Cogdill that the Legislature put on the 2010 ballot before moving it to the 2012 ballot.)

Proposition 31 – Prohibits Political Contributions by Payroll Deduction. Prohibitions on Contributions to Candidates. Initiative Statute. (This is best known as Stop Special Interest Money Now.)

Proposition 32 – Changes Law to Allow Auto Insurance Companies to Set Prices Based on a Driver’s History of Insurance Coverage. Initiative Statute.

Proposition 33 – Death Penalty Repeal. Initiative Statute.

Proposition 34 – Human Trafficking. Penalties. Sex Offender Registration. Initiative Statute.

Proposition 35 – Three Strikes Law. Sentencing for Repeat Felony Offenders. Initiative Statute.

Proposition 36 – Genetically Engineered Foods. Mandatory Labeling. Initiative Statute.

Proposition 37 – Temporary Taxes to Fund Education. Guaranteed Local Public Safety Funding. Initiative Constitutional Amendment. (This is Governor Jerry Brown’s tax measure.)

Proposition 38 – Tax for Education and Early Childhood Programs. Initiative Statute. (This is Molly Munger’s tax measure.)

Proposition 39 – Tax Treatment for Multistate Businesses. Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency Funding. Initiative Statute.

Proposition 40 – State Budget. State and Local Government. Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute. (This is the two-year budget measure.)

Proposition 41 – Redistricting. State Senate Districts. Referendum.

Again, these numbers are tentative and can be changed if the Legislature yanks the first one off the ballot or adds other measures to the ballot.

These are the official titles from the Attorney General’s office from when these measures were cleared for circulation.  It’s odd that the three crime-related measures were bunched together and the four fiscal measures were bunched together; that was just convenient from ballot qualification order.

More will come once we have a clearer look at the ballot after the deadline for the Legislature to place/remove measures for the November ballot.

(In the interest of full disclosure, Custom Campaigns has done some consulting work for Stop Special Interest Money Now, tentatively Proposition 31.  For the record, we do not accept payments for blogging and require disclosures when a blogger has a potential conflict of interest in a blog post, unless it’s something really obvious, like a blogger blogging about their own candidacy for office.)

Posted in California | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

SOCCCD Appoints Fuentes Successor Over Family’s Objections; Will Petition Drive Launch to Invalidate Appointment?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 26, 2012

Thomas A. Fuentes (1948-2012)

Thomas A. Fuentes
(1948-2012)

Many of you may have read Frank Mickadeit’s column about the insensitive manner in which the South Orange County Community College District Board of Trustees dealt with the vacancy in the Trustee Area 6 seat that resulted from the untimely passing of Tom Fuentes.  For those of you who haven’t read it, here are some excerpts:

Tom Fuentes had been dead just 72 hours before the long-fractured community college board on which he sat decided to appoint a replacement.

It seemed like a rather stunning affront to the Fuentes family…

Fuentes died very late on Friday, May 18. That Monday, the board majority decided over the objection of trustee David Lang to immediately solicit applicants for Fuentes’ seat, with the selection to be made at the June meeting.

Before the formal vote, Lang once more begged his colleagues to let voters decide the seat in November and called them out for making such a nakedly political decision. The seat will be on the ballot in November anyway, but by giving the seat to Wright now, he’ll have the power of incumbency. “A majority of the board is slanting the election in a trustee’s favor,” he said.

This allegation seemed to perturb board President Nancy Padberg, who tersely replied, “The board has decided and will move on.” When T. J. Fuentes told the board he was “very disturbed by the fact that the board had decided to appoint somebody before my father was even buried,” Padberg replied that, “it had to be processed timely.”

A number of people have expressed their consternation with the way the SOCCCD Trustees handled the entire process.  Many have expressed the wish that the trustees had simply allowed the voters to fill the seat in the November election rather than fill the seat via appointment for the incumbency advantages Lang outlined above.

Last night, the trustees voted 5-1 to appoint James Wright, an outgoing dean at Saddleback College.  I’m not aware of any objections to Wright himself, but the objections to the appointment have centered on two different rationales:

  1. As Mickadeit wrote, “the manner in which the board went about it, and the dismissive, disrespectful way it treated Jolene Fuentes and her and Tom’s oldest son, T.J., both of whom expressed their anguish to the board on Monday only to receive stone-cold silence or indifference from the majority.”
  2. Trustee Lang’s argument that since the seat was up for election in November anyway, why not just let the voters pick the new trustee in November?

As it turns out, Education Code Section 5091(c)(1) lays out a procedure to invalidate the appointment (I’ve bolded the key portions):

If a provisional appointment is made within the 60-day period, the registered voters of the district may, within 30 days from the date of the appointment, petition for the conduct of a special election to fill the vacancy. A petition shall be deemed to bear a sufficient number of signatures if signed by at least the number of registered voters of the district equal to 11/2 percent of the number of registered voters of the district at the time of the last regular election for governing board members, or 25 registered voters, whichever is greater. However, in districts with registered voters of less than 2,000 persons, a petition shall be deemed to bear a sufficient number of signatures if signed by at least 5 percent of the number of registered voters of the district at the time of the last regular election for governing board members.

The last regular election for governing board members in SOCCCD was on November 2, 2010.  According to the Statement of Vote for that election, there 549,192 registered voters in SOCCCD at that election. From that number, 1.5% is equal to 8,238 signatures.

If those signatures are collected, the appointment will be invalidated.  Now some of you may notice the petition would create a special election.  Indeed a special election would be an obscene waste of money since the seat expires in less than five months.  As it turns out, Education Code Section 5093(c) deals with that:

If a special election pursuant to Section 5091 could be consolidated with the next regular election for governing board members, and the vacant position is scheduled to be filled at such regular election, there shall be no special election.

In other words, if the seat is up in a few months in the regular election anyway, the special election would be cancelled, and the voters would simply fill the seat at the regular election.  So if a petition is launched immediately and gathers 8,238 valid signatures from registered voters within SOCCCD by July 25, the appointment would be invalidated, and the SOCCCD Trustee Area 6 seat would remain vacant until the voters filled it for the usual four-year term at the regular election in November – and no one would have the advantage of incumbency in that regular election in November.

With the Fuentes family’s deep political ties across Orange County, will someone step up in the next few days to launch a petition drive to invalidate the appointment to the SOCCCD Trustee Area 6 seat, allowing the voters to pick Fuentes’s successor in November?

Posted in South Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Supreme Court’s Weird Split on Arizona v. United States

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 25, 2012

By now, you’ve likely heard about the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in Arizona v. United States which decided the constitutionality of Arizona’s S.B. 1070.  Legal experts often say that judicial ideology is hard to measure, but for the sake of brevity, I’ll use the layman’s categorization of which justices are conservatives and liberals.

Liberal justice Elena Kagan recused herself since she was Solicitor General at the time the Obama Administration decided to challenge S.B. 1070.

A lot of news coverage has left out how the justices voted, so here’s my quickie guide (my far-too-short analysis of the practical implications follows the guide):

The Court voted unanimously to uphold Section 2(B):

For any lawful contact made by a law enforcement official or agency of this state or a county, city, town or other political subdivision of this state where reasonable suspicion exists that the person is an alien who is unlawfully present in the United States, a reasonable attempt shall be made, when practicable, to determine the immigration status of the person.  The person’s immigration status shall be verified with the federal government pursuant to 8 United States Code Section 1373(c).

In other words, law enforcement officers may determine the immigration status of any person “where reasonable suspicion exists” after the officers make a stop, detention, or arrest.


In a 6-2 decision, the Court struck down Section 3, which is a page and a half long (way too long to reproduce here, but accessible here).  In essence, that section made it misdemeanor trespassing to be illegally in Arizona.

In this portion, conservatives Samuel Alito and John Roberts joined with conservative swing voter Anthony Kennedy and liberals Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, and Sonia Sotomayor to strike down that portion of the S.B. 1070 as unconstitutional.  Conservatives Clarence Thomas and Antonin Scalia voted to uphold that portion of S.B. 1070.

In a 5-3 decision, the Court struck down Section 5(C):

It is unlawful for a person who is unlawfully present in the United States and who is an unauthorized alien to knowingly apply for work, solicit work in a public place or perform work as an employee or independent contractor in this state.

In other words, that section made it a misdemeanor to work or seek work in the United States without a green card, a visa, or U.S. citizenship.

Conservative Chief Justice Roberts joined with conservative swing voter Kennedy and liberals Ginsburg, Breyer, and Sotomayor to strike down Section 5(C) of S.B. 1070 as unconstitutional.  Conservatives Alito, Thomas, and Scalia voted to uphold that section of S.B. 1070.

In a 5-3 decision, the Court struck down Section 6, which is nearly 4 pages long (way, way too long to reproduce here, but can be accessed here).  In essence, that section allows a law enforcement officer to arrest someone without a warrant for “any public offense” that makes the person deportable.

As with Section 5(C), conservative Chief Justice Roberts joined with conservative swing voter Kennedy and liberals Ginsburg, Breyer, and Sotomayor to strike down Section 6 of S.B. 1070 as unconstitutional.  Conservatives Alito, Thomas, and Scalia voted to uphold that section of S.B. 1070.

Practical Implications

Sections 2(B) was the most potent clause of S.B. 1070, followed by Section 6 while Sections 3 and 5(C) were less significant.  Sections 3 and 5(C) dealt with creating specific misdemeanors, but Sections 2(B) and 6 gave Arizona police and sheriff’s vast powers of enforcement.  Section 6 allows law enforcement to arrest for any deportable offense even without a judicial order.  Section 2(B) allows law enforcement to demand proof of legal status from anyone they stop (if they’ve stopped them for another reason).

The Court’s ruling still allows Arizona law enforcement to demand proof of legal status, yet doesn’t allow them to enforce their two misdemeanors or make an arrest for a deportable offense without a judicial order.

It was weird enough that Roberts joined Kennedy and the liberals on the entire ruling and Alito joined them on 1 of the 3 non-unanimous portions of the decision.  However, it’s truly weird that the most potent portion of S.B. 1070 was upheld while the other portions were struck down.  While this may make legal sense, it has really odd practical implications.

Posted in National | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Breaking News: AP Says Prop 29 Failed

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 22, 2012

Weeks after the election, the Associated Press has confirmed that Prop 29 has been defeated in a narrow race.

The Secretary of State’s unofficial count shows Prop 29 failed by less than 2 votes per precinct.

Posted in California | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

AD-74’s Surprise Split: Mansoor Wins Three Cities, Rush Wins Other Three Cities, Daigle Second in Hometown But Third in All Other Cities

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 22, 2012

Apologies for the blogcation this week.  We forgot to tell readers we would be taking time off for Day of the Independent Hungary on June 19 and Argentinian Flag Day on June 20.  We were going to celebrate Canadian National Aboriginal Day and Prince William’s 30th birthday on June 21, but then Thomas Gordon blogged about Barack Obama’s assertion of executive privilege à la Richard Nixon.  Now back to the show…

On Monday, I blogged the city-by-city breakdown in AD-72, which showed Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) and Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) the top two in four cities, OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley) and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove) the top two in two cities, and Pham and Edgar the top two in Garden Grove.

Today, we look at the surprise result in AD-74.

First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:

California State Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R) 33,319 43.5%
Newport Beach Businessman Robert Rush (D) 25,120 32.8%
Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R) 18,207 23.8%

So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the six cities of AD-74: Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Costa Mesa, Laguna Woods, and Laguna Beach.

74th Assembly District results in each city

(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics.  Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-74.  Huntington Beach is divided nearly 50/50 between AD-72 and AD-74 while 2/3 of Irvine is in AD-74, with 1/3 of Irvine in AD-68.)

In each city, the candidate with the larger head came in first while the candidate with the smaller head came in second:

  • Rush came in first with Mansoor second in Irvine, Laguna Woods, and Laguna Beach.
  • Mansoor came in first with Rush second in Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa.
  • Mansoor came in first with Daigle second in Newport Beach.

These results were consistent in all six cities across both absentee and poll voters.

Here’s the percentage breakdown by city, with the winner’s percentage in bold and the runner-up in italics:

Mansoor Rush Daigle
Costa Mesa 49.7% 32.1% 18.1%
Huntington Beach 46.2% 29.8% 24.0%
Irvine 37.8% 39.1% 23.1%
Laguna Beach 32.0% 46.6% 21.4%
Laguna Woods 33.8% 45.4% 20.7%
Newport Beach 48.2% 22.1% 29.7%

Now here’s that list of cities by number of voters in AD-74:

  • Newport Beach: Mansoor
  • Huntington Beach: Mansoor
  • Irvine: Rush
  • Costa Mesa: Mansoor
  • Laguna Woods: Rush
  • Laguna Beach: Rush

For our visual learners:

The results show that despite enormous spending on behalf of Daigle by Berkshire Hathaway Heir and Santa Clara County Republican Party Chairman Charles Munger, Jr. (as we blogged about here, here, and here), which eventually totaled well over half a million dollars ($579,040 to be exact), plus another $89,687 in independent expenditures from labor unions, the power of incumbency and grassroots activists enabled Mansoor to overcome the hundreds of thousands of dollars in Bay Area/labor union money spent on behalf of Daigle.  Similarly, the power of party label enabled Rush to overcome the hundreds of thousands of dollars in Bay Area/labor union money spent on behalf of Daigle (much like the power of party label enabled Republican Jose “Joe” Moreno [not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno] to overcome the $246,761 in labor union money spent on behalf of Democrat Julio Perez).

And here’s a quick video courtesy of OC Political Reader and Lake Forest City Council Candidate Dwight Robinson that boils the AD-74 result into a nutshell:

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

John Warner Replaces Deborah Pauly as First Vice Chair of the OCGOP

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 18, 2012

In a swift three-minute election, John Warner was elected without an opponent (though with some “No” votes) to replace Deborah Pauly who was removed in a lengthy and controversial Central Committee meeting in May.

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Live from Central Committee: Replacing Deborah Pauly

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 18, 2012

At 7:24 PM, Orange Councilman Fred Whitaker has nominated John Warner for First Vice Chair to replace Deborah Pauly.

At 7:25 PM, Tim Whitacre has moved to table the election.

At 7:26 PM, the motion to table is defeated.

At 7:27 PM, Warner is approved with a supermajority voice vote.

Posted in Republican Central Committee | 1 Comment »

AD-72’s Distinct Split: Edgar & Allen Top Two in Four Cities, Pham & Dovinh Top Two in Two Cities

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 18, 2012

With the Primary Election certified, we now have clear breakdowns available in every race in the county.  First up is the 72nd Assembly District, which had the most distinct divisions in the different parts of the district.

First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:

Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar (R) 18,060 28.0%
Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen (R) 12,851 19.9%
Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D) 12,432 19.3%
County Board of Education Trustee Long Pham (R) 12,409 19.2%
Garden Grove Retiree Albert Ayala (D) 8,816 13.7%

So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the nine major parts of AD-72 (the seven cities of Fountain Valley, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Los Alamitos, Santa Ana, Seal Beach, and Westminster along with the two major unincorporated areas of Midway City and Rossmoor).

72nd Assembly District results in each city and major unincorporated area

(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics.  Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-72.  Huntington Beach is divided nearly 50/50 between AD-72 and AD-74.  A sliver of Santa Ana and the bulk of Garden Grove are in AD-72 while the bulk of Santa Ana and a sliver of Garden Grove are in AD-69.)

In each city, the candidate with the larger head came in first while the candidate with the smaller head came in second:

  • Edgar came in first with Allen second in Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, Seal Beach, Los Alamitos, and Rossmoor.
  • Pham came in first with Dovinh second in Westminster, Santa Ana, and Midway City.
  • Pham came in first with Edgar second in Garden Grove.

Here’s their vote totals broken down visually by city:

Seal Beach single-handedly caused Edgar vs. Allen.  Without them, it would have been Edgar vs. Pham.  Same story with Huntington Beach.

Fountain Valley single-handedly caused the all-Republican matchup.  Without them, it would have been Edgar vs. Dovinh.

Here’s how each candidate performed in the various parts of the district:

  • Edgar came in first or third in every part of the district, except for a second-place finish in Garden Grove and a fourth-place finish in Santa Ana.
  • Pham came in first or fifth in every part of the district, except for a third-place finish in his home of Fountain Valley.
  • Dovinh came in second or third in every part of the district, except for a fourth-place finish in Fountain Valley.
  • Allen came in second or fourth in every part of the district, except for a fifth-place finish in Santa Ana.
  • Ayala came in fourth or fifth in every part of the district, except for a third-place finish in Santa Ana.

Here’s a chart showing how the candidates did in each city and major unincorporated area:

Huntington Beach
Los Alamitos
Seal Beach
Rossmoor
Fountain Valley Westminster
Midway City
Santa Ana Garden Grove
  1. Edgar
  2. Allen
  3. Dovinh
  4. Ayala
  5. Pham
  1. Edgar
  2. Allen
  3. Pham
  4. Dovinh
  5. Ayala
  1. Pham
  2. Dovinh
  3. Edgar
  4. Allen
  5. Ayala
  1. Pham
  2. Dovinh
  3. Ayala
  4. Edgar
  5. Allen
  1. Pham
  2. Edgar
  3. Dovinh
  4. Allen
  5. Ayala

Here are the areas sorted by voter turnout:

  • Seal Beach: 36.2%
  • Rossmoor: 34.1%
  • Fountain Valley: 26.9%
  • Los Alamitos: 25.5%
  • Huntington Beach: 24.8%
  • Westminster: 23.5%
  • Garden Grove: 21.7%
  • Midway City: 19.9%
  • Santa Ana: 18.1%

Now let’s see that voter turnout list again, but with the top two candidates in each city noted:

  • Seal Beach: Edgar, Allen
  • Rossmoor: Edgar, Allen
  • Fountain Valley: Edgar, Allen
  • Los Alamitos: Edgar, Allen
  • Huntington Beach: Edgar, Allen
  • Westminster: Pham, Dovinh
  • Garden Grove: Pham, Edgar
  • Midway City: Pham, Dovinh
  • Santa Ana: Pham, Dovinh

Had voter turnout been just a tad higher in Little Saigon or a tad lower in the non-Little Saigon parts of AD-72, Edgar would be facing off against fellow Republican Pham or Democrat Dovinh.

Looking at Pham’s first-or-fifth performance everywhere (outside of his home of Fountain Valley), it’s clear that Team Pham focused too much energy on Little Saigon.  Just a little bit more mail, walkers, or other effort in the non-Little Saigon areas of AD-72 would have been just enough to get him that 0.7% he needed to make the run-off against Edgar.

67% of the voters cast their ballots for the three Republicans while 33% cast their ballots for the two Democrats.  The majority of primary election voters (52.2%) cast their ballots for Dovinh, Pham, or Ayala.  Edgar and Allen combined to win 47.9% of the vote.

The path to victory for the two November contenders goes through Little Saigon, the Democrats, and the independents.  Between Edgar and Allen, whoever can get these large blocs of voters to swing behind them will be the next Assemblyman from the 72nd District.

Posted in 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

How Fast is the Registrar of Voters Counting Ballots? When Will They Finish? Who Will This Affect?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 14, 2012

On Friday evening, there were 17,125 uncounted ballots.

By Monday evening, there were 14,724 uncounted ballots, meaning 2,401 ballots were resolved on Monday.

By Tuesday evening, there were 9,528 uncounted ballots, meaning 5,196 ballots were resolved on Tuesday.

By last night, there were 4,625 uncounted ballots, meaning 4,903 ballots were resolved on Wednesday.

At the rate they’re going, it’s highly likely the Registrar of Voters completes the vote count today.

For visual learners:

There are only a few races that could still be affected by the outstanding ballots.

  • Will Ray Grangoff close his 51-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District?  Will Ken Williams close both his 115-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway and his 64-vote deficit to overtake Ray Grangroff for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District?
  • Will Bill Dunlap close his 62-vote deficit to overtake John Draper for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 74th District?

Those two races are the only ones in all of Orange County where the gap between the elected and the unelected (or 2nd and 3rd place in those fighting to advance to November from primaries) is 0.3% or less.  It is highly unlikely the 4,625 outstanding ballots would move the needle any more than 0.3%.

There are a couple races where the current leads would be unaffected by the remaining 4,625 ballots, but where the gap could close enough to lead the 3rd or 4th place candidate to pay for a recount to advance to November from the primaries.  (I’m assuming no one’s going to pay for a recount for any party’s Central Committee.)

69th Assembly District
Tom Daly (D) 10,862 39.3%
Jose “Joe” Moreno (R) 5,933 21.5%
Julio Perez (D) 5,649 20.4%
Michele Martinez (D) 4,614 16.7%
Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D) 594 2.1%

Team Perez is likely contemplating whether they’ll pay for a recount if they get within 1% of Jose Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno).  Perez’s allies spent six figures trying to elect him, so the cost of a recount wouldn’t be out of the question for them.

72nd Assembly District
Troy Edgar (R) 17,968 28.0%
Travis Allen (R) 12,726 19.8%
Joe Dovinh (D) 12,353 19.3%
Long Pham (R) 12,325 19.2%
Albert Ayala (D) 8,756 13.7%

Long Pham is likely contemplating if he will pay for a recount if he gets within 0.5% of Travis Allen.  It’s unlikely Joe Dovinh or his team have the financial resources to pay for a recount.  Pham would need to dig into his own pockets for a recount.  He’s already spent $100,000 of his personal funds on his campaign and making 2nd place to get to the November general election against Troy Edgar may be the only way he recoups that $100,000.

The 1% for Perez vs. the 0.5% for Pham is on the basis that Perez would be more aggressive than Pham in pursuing a recount, as Perez’s allies spent more and have deeper pockets to pay for a recount while Pham spent less and has more shallow (less deep?) pockets.

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, Orange County, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

AD-69: Traditional D vs. R Match-Up in Daly vs. Moreno; Martinez Plays Spoiler for Perez

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 13, 2012

On Monday, I took a look at AD-72, and in this post, I’ll be looking at another of OC’s multi-candidate Assembly races that has now narrowed down to two: AD-69.

Conventional wisdom held that if any OC district was going to feature an intraparty battle in November (courtesy of Prop 14), it was going to be the Republicans in AD-74 between Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle or the Democrats in AD-69 between OC Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly and either labor leader Julio Perez or Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez.  (Unexpectedly, it was AD-72 that created OC’s sole intraparty battle with an all-Republican November matchup between Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.)

AD-69 will come down to Daly and Republican OC Eligibility Technician Jose “Joe” Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno).

We here at OC Political predicted Daly vs. Moreno here, here, and here. (While we made several predictions that went wrong [like nearly everybody else, we failed to predict Edgar vs. Allen in AD-72], we’ve been consistent in predicting Daly 1st and Moreno 2nd in AD-69.)

This race was incredibly evenly divided.  Daly was far and away the top vote-getter, getting nearly double the number of votes of the second-place candidate.

Tom Daly 10,724 39.6%
Jose “Joe” Moreno 5,843 21.6%
Julio Perez 5,440 20.1%
Michele Martinez 4,506 16.6%
Francisco “Paco” Barragan 577 2.1%

Some readers may be wondering if Perez could still catch Moreno with the remaining uncounted ballots.   There just aren’t enough out there. 27,090 out of the 417,965 ballots counted in Orange County so far cast votes in AD-69, which equals 6.5% of the votes.  There are 9,528 uncounted ballots remaining in Orange County, which leaves approximately 619 votes remaining in AD-69.  To make up his current 403-vote deficit, Perez would need to be ahead of Moreno by 65.1%.  If Moreno captures 10% of the vote, that would require Perez get 75.1%, leaving just 14.9% to be split between Daly, Martinez, and Barragan.  Let’s say AD-69 has a disproportionate share of the outstanding ballots, and double that to 1,238 ballots remaining in AD-69, Perez would need to be ahead of Moreno by 32.6%.  That is a tough margin for Perez.  If Moreno captures 10% of the vote, that would require Perez get 42.6%, leaving just 47.4% to be split between Daly, Martinez, and Barragan.

It’s clear from the results that Martinez was Perez’s spoiler.  If just 10% of Martinez’s votes had gone to Perez, he would have surpassed Moreno and advanced to a run-off against Daly.  Martinez and Perez were clearly the liberal Democrats in the race, with Daly and Barragan the more moderate Democrats, and Moreno was the Republican.  The lion’s share of Martinez’s votes would have gone to Perez.

It’s now clear that without Michele Martinez in the race, union-backed Democrat Julio Perez would have advanced to the November run-off against business-backed Democrat Tom Daly.

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments »