Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 23, 2014
This came across the wire earlier this week:
Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: Cecilia "Ceci" Iglesias | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 23, 2014
In our effort to bring useful information to our readers, here is a database of campaign contribution limits for every office in Orange County:
| Office | Contribution Limit |
| UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE | $ 2,600.00 |
| STATE SENATE | $ 4,100.00 |
| STATE ASSEMBLY | $ 4,100.00 |
| ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS | $ 1,900.00 |
| ORANGE COUNTY SCHOOL BOARD | NONE |
| ORANGE COUNTY ASSESSOR | $ 1,900.00 |
| ORANGE COUNTY AUDITOR-CONTROLLER | $ 1,900.00 |
| ORANGE COUNTY CLERK-RECORDER | $ 1,900.00 |
| ORANGE COUNTY DISTRICT ATTORNEY | $ 1,900.00 |
| ORANGE COUNTY SHERIFF-CORONER | $ 1,900.00 |
| ORANGE COUNTY SUPERINTENDENT OF SCHOOLS | $ 1,900.00 |
| ORANGE COUNTY TREASURER-TAX COLLECTOR | $ 1,900.00 |
| ALISO VIEJO CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| ANAHEIM MAYOR | $ 1,900.00 |
| ANAHEIM CITY COUNCIL | $ 1,900.00 |
| BREA CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| BUENA PARK CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| COSTA MESA CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| CYPRESS CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| DANA POINT CITY COUNCIL | $ 690.00 |
| FOUNTAIN VALLEY CITY COUNCIL | $ 500.00 |
| FULLERTON CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| GARDEN GROVE MAYOR | NONE |
| GARDEN GROVE CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| HUNTINGTON BEACH CITY COUNCIL | $ 540.00 |
| IRVINE MAYOR | $ 470.00 |
| IRVINE CITY COUNCIL | $ 470.00 |
| LAGUNA BEACH CITY COUNCIL | $ 360.00 |
| LAGUNA HILLS CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| LAGUNA NIGUEL CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| LA HABRA CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| LAGUNA WOODS CITY COUNCIL | $ 250.00 |
| LAKE FOREST CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| LA PALMA CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| LOS ALAMITOS CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| MISSION VIEJO CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| NEWPORT BEACH CITY COUNCIL | $ 1,100.00 |
| ORANGE MAYOR | $ 1,000.00 |
| ORANGE CITY COUNCIL | $ 1,000.00 |
| PLACENTIA CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| SAN CLEMENTE CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO CITY COUNCIL | $ 500.00 |
| SANTA ANA MAYOR | $ 1,000.00 |
| SANTA ANA CITY COUNCIL | $ 1,000.00 |
| SEAL BEACH CITY COUNCIL | $ 500.00 |
| STANTON CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| TUSTIN CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| VILLA PARK CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| WESTMINSTER MAYOR | NONE |
| WESTMINSTER CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| YORBA LINDA CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| NORTH ORANGE COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT | NONE |
| COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT | NONE |
| RANCHO SANTIAGO COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT | NONE |
| SOUTH ORANGE COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT | NONE |
| ANAHEIM UNION HIGH SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| FULLERTON JOINT UNION HIGH SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| HUNTINGTON BEACH UNION HIGH SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| BREA-OLINDA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| GARDEN GROVE UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| LAGUNA BEACH UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| NEWPORT MESA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| PLACENTIA-YORBA LINDA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| SANTA ANA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| ANAHEIM CITY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| CENTRALIA ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| FOUNTAIN VALLEY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| HUNTINGTON BEACH CITY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| LOWELL JOINT ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| OCEAN VIEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| WESTMINSTER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| EMERALD BAY COMMUNITY SERVICES DISTRICT | NONE |
| SURFSIDE COLONY COMMUNITY SERVICES DISTRICT | NONE |
| EL TORO WATER DISTRICT | NONE |
| MOULTON NIGUEL WATER DISTRICT | NONE |
| MUNICIPAL WATER DISTRICT OF ORANGE COUNTY | NONE |
| ROSSMOOR/LOS ALAMITOS AREA SEWER DISTRICT | NONE |
| ORANGE COUNTY WATER DISTRICT | NONE |
| TRABUCO CANYON WATER DISTRICT | NONE |
| SURFSIDE COLONY STORMWATER PROTECTION DISTRICT | NONE |
| MIDWAY CITY SANITARY DISTRICT | NONE |
| SERRANO WATER DISTRICT | NONE |
| BUENA PARK LIBRARY DISTRICT | NONE |
| PLACENTIA LIBRARY DISTRICT | NONE |
Posted in Campaign Finance | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Marion Morrison on May 22, 2014
The first IE for the 2nd Supervisorial District has hit mailboxes today. The Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs has come out in support of Michelle Steel with this positive piece.
Meanwhile, Allan Mansoor appeals to friends on Facebook to let people know what has transpired:
Public Employee Unions Rally for Michelle Steel
Friends,
Over the weekend, I received notice that the Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs union will be sending out its first mailer on behalf of Michelle Steel sometime in the next 24 hours. The union endorsement, shown below, is the most important part.
Given Michelle’s history, it’s not surprising. I’ve known it was only a matter of time before public employee unions started lining up to support her.
In 2006, public employee unions spent hundreds of thousands of dollars opposing my reelection to City Council. That same year, Michelle received multiple $1000+ union contributions to her campaign for BOE. (see attached photo below)
Given that independent expenditures rarely seem “independent” this probably isn’t a surprise for Steel either. Perhaps it’s why she refused to rule out immediate raises for county employees to offset increased employee pension contributions.
Have trouble believing that Michelle Steel, self-proclaimed “taxpayer advocate”, would undermine pension reform? Her comments starting at the 12:30 mark of the Feet to the Fire Forum speak for themselves.
What do union endorsements like this mean? It means that a candidate can be trusted by union bosses to help increase their power. It doesn’t mean that rank and file membership support the candidate.
I continue to have strong support from my former colleagues – rank and file Deputy Sheriffs – who know that pension reform is the only way to save our pensions. Everyone who has worked in law enforcement and is expecting a pension – myself included – depends on sustainable pensions. A bankrupt pension system might leave us with nothing.
This isn’t the only time union leaders have been out of touch with the membership. In 2006, when convicted-Sheriff Mike Carona was running for reelection, I joined many of my fellow Deputies in standing up against Mike Carona and supported Lt. Bill Hunt.
We knew then that Mike Carona was corrupt and that it was only a matter of time before he went to prison. But then we watched with disappointment as our “leadership” fell over themselves to undermine Lt. Hunt’s campaign and continue supporting Carona until the bitter end.
Not much has changed since the days of Carona. Union bosses still prefer candidates who will engage in backroom dealmaking and are more interested in holding office than serving the community.
My desire to make Orange County a better place to live is shared by rank and file members, many of whom have my sign in their yards. It’s the union bosses and other special interests that oppose me because I will always stand up for what is right, regardless of the political consequences.
We’re in the final stretch of the campaign, and I need your help. With your help, we can keep the public employee union bosses from buying a seat on the Orange County Board of Supervisors.
Please contribute here and together we can help keep this seat for the residents of Orange County’s 2nd District.
Thank you for your continued friendship and support.
Allan
http://www.facebook.com/allanmansoor/posts/10201131476609410
Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Independent Expenditures, Mail | Tagged: Allan Mansoor, AOCDS, Michelle Steel | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 22, 2014
Here goes another handicapping post, I fear that Chris Nguyen is going to chase me with the axe from the Neel Kashkari mailer. I am going to give my take on the 55th Assembly District, which is Curt Hagman’s seat, which he cannot run for due to term limits.
Here are the candidates running for AD 55:
Voter registration heavily favors Republicans, with Republicans having 42% of registered voters in the 55th Assembly District compared to Democrats who hold just 31% of voter registration. This is an open primary that falls under the rules of Proposition 14, so regardless of percentages, the two candidates with the most votes will advance to the November election. The 55th Assembly District currently has the following cities within its boundaries:
Gregg Fritchle
Gregg Fritchle has run for this seat before and is the lone Democrat on the ballot this election. Let’s take a look at his electoral history.
Results from 2012 (Open Primary):
| MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 55th District |
| Completed Precincts: 275 of 275 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| CURT HAGMAN | 40,268 | 69.1% |
| GREGG D. FRITCHLE | 17,994 | 30.9% |
Results from 2010 (Democratic Primary):
| MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 60th District – Democratic |
| Completed Precincts: 299 of 299 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| GREGG D. FRITCHLE (DEM) | 14,498 | 100.0% |
Fritchle has no chance to win in November and likely will not run a very comprehensive campaign being that he is a sacrificial lamb on the ballot. However, he is still the only Democrat in the race and with a solid backing in the last election among Democrats, Fritchle does not have any other candidates pulling from his base of voters.
With Fritchle not qualifying for electronic campaign finance filings, we can assume that he does not plan to get involved in the voter contact battle that will exist among the three Republicans in the race to advance to November.
Steve Tye
Steve Tye is sort of the curious candidate in this race. I do not really understand why he is running and he does not appear to be in a good position to advance to November and I will show you why.
I will give him this, he did finish ahead of Ling-Ling Chang in the past two Diamond Bar City Council Races, but I am not convinced that he is a contender based on his campaign being the weakest of the three Republicans. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.
Results from 2013 (LA County Election):
As of Date: 11/19/2013 Time: 13:58 Votes Percent
DIAMOND BAR CY GEN MUNI COUNCILMEMBER
VOTE FOR NO MORE THAN 3STEVE TYE 2,895 23.68
LING LING CHANG 2,765 22.61
NANCY A LYONS 2,578 21.08
RON EVERETT 1,956 16.00
JOSEPH KIM 1,232 10.08
MARTIN NAKAISHI 801 6.55TOTAL PRECINCTS 18 PRECINCTS REPORTING 18 100.00
REGISTRATION 31,989
Results from 2009 (LA County Election):
As of Date: 11/20/2009 Time: 16:27 Votes Percent
DIAMOND BAR CITY GEN MUNI COUNCILMEMBER
VOTE FOR NO MORE THAN 3STEVE TYE 3,472 24.04
RON EVERETT 2,945 20.39
LING-LING CHANG 2,727 18.88
ROBERT L VELAZQUEZ 1,520 10.53
DAVID T LIU 1,453 10.06
LUCY HUANG 1,311 9.08
S DHAND 1,013 7.01TOTAL PRECINCTS 17 PRECINCTS REPORTING 17 100.00
REGISTRATION 29,877
As you can see from the election results, Tye does extremely well in races that take place in odd years in Diamond Bar. This election, though, is the big leagues, and he is going to need a much stronger effort to win a seat in the State Assembly.
As of the last reporting period, Tye has over $123,000 cash on hand although this does include a $100,000 loan from himself. I have not heard about any mailers going out from his campaign but will admit that I was impressed to hear that he does have a pretty substantial precinct operation that his campaign is running. I question whether or not he can raise enough money to fight the powers of Ling-Ling Chang and Phillip Chen who have dominated the mailboxes up until this point.
Tye will likely pull some votes away from Ling-Ling Chang by virtue of his name ID in Diamond Bar. However, I anticipate that he will pull more votes away from Phillip Chen due to the fact that the male voters will be split between three candidates.
Ling-Ling Chang
Ling-Ling Chang is the other Councilmember from Diamond Bar that is running in this race. She is the only female candidate on the ballot and has got a lot of money in her campaign war chest as of the last reporting period.
Ling-Ling Chang snuck onto the City Council in 2009 but showed a great deal of improvement in 2013. Let’s take a brief look at her electoral history.
Results from 2013 (LA County Election):
As of Date: 11/19/2013 Time: 13:58 Votes Percent
DIAMOND BAR CY GEN MUNI COUNCILMEMBER
VOTE FOR NO MORE THAN 3STEVE TYE 2,895 23.68
LING LING CHANG 2,765 22.61
NANCY A LYONS 2,578 21.08
RON EVERETT 1,956 16.00
JOSEPH KIM 1,232 10.08
MARTIN NAKAISHI 801 6.55TOTAL PRECINCTS 18 PRECINCTS REPORTING 18 100.00
REGISTRATION 31,989
Results from 2009 (LA County Election):
As of Date: 11/20/2009 Time: 16:27 Votes Percent
DIAMOND BAR CITY GEN MUNI COUNCILMEMBER
VOTE FOR NO MORE THAN 3STEVE TYE 3,472 24.04
RON EVERETT 2,945 20.39
LING-LING CHANG 2,727 18.88
ROBERT L VELAZQUEZ 1,520 10.53
DAVID T LIU 1,453 10.06
LUCY HUANG 1,311 9.08
S DHAND 1,013 7.01TOTAL PRECINCTS 17 PRECINCTS REPORTING 17 100.00
REGISTRATION 29,877
As you can see from the election results, Chang closed the gap between herself and Tye in the 2013 race. I expect her to finish substantially ahead of Tye in the areas outside of Diamond Bar. Impressively, Chang has over $325,000 cash on hand as of the last reporting period, although this also includes a $100,000 personal loan.
Chang not only has the most direct mail going out to voters but she also appears to have the best ground game from what I have heard from my sources in the 55th Assembly District. She is definitely putting in the work needed to come out a winner in this race.
At this point, it is her race to lose.
Phillip Chen
Phillip Chen is fighting with Ling-Ling Chang for the top slot in this election. Chen is a member of the Walnut Valley Unified School District and is also a staffer for LA County Supervisor Mike Antonovich. I am not impressed with his usage of the ballot designation Small Business Owner.
Let’s take a look at his electoral history.
Results from 2011 (LA County Election):
As of Date: 11/18/2011 Time: 14:05 Votes Percent
WALNUT VALLEY UNIF SCH GOVERNING BOARD MEMBER
VOTE FOR NO MORE THAN 2PHILLIP CHEN 3,121 42.65
LARRY L REDINGER 2,649 36.20
BEN YIP 1,548 21.15TOTAL PRECINCTS 22 PRECINCTS REPORTING 22 100.00
REGISTRATION 31,204
Chen does not have as much name ID as Steve Tye or Ling-Ling Chang, but he does appear to have the most money with over $450,000 cash on hand, although as with the other two Republicans he has also loaned himself the magic $100,000. It appears that he has dominated slate mailers up until this point, but I have not been very impressed with the direct mail that he has put out or the TV commercial that he has put up on cable.
With his fundraising lead in place, I will give Chen credit, because I have heard that he is also running a strong ground game operation. The problems he face are that he has weaker name ID than both of his Republican opponents, and he did not use his elected title as his ballot designation (which would link him to his name ID). Chen just does not stand out from the crowd in my opinion, and I believe that it will be tough for him to overtake Ling-Ling Chang
Prediction Time
Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict that the candidates who advance to November will be
Ling-Ling Chang (R) and Gregg Fritchle (D)
Posted in 55th Assembly District | Tagged: Gregg Fritchle, Ling-Ling Chang, Phillip Chen, Steve Tye | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Allen Wilson on May 22, 2014
Yesterday, my colleague Craig Alexander reported that Charles Munger was meddling in the AD-73 contest in support for Anna Bryson.
It is now reported that the California Dental Association (CDA) IE PAC decides to get involved in the AD-55 contest in support for Ling-Ling Chang with a $129,000 drop.
The CDA IE PAC spent $100,000 on TV/Cable Buy and $29,000 on polling.
The Spirit of Democracy PAC controlled by Charles Munger gave CDA IE PAC $29,000 to pay for the polling, which was more of an “in-kind” donation.
The polling was mysteriously conducted few weeks ago to households in the AD-55 contest including yours truly relatives living in Orange County. The poll initially asked for the registered to vote female in the household, then asked for the registered to vote male, if the female wasn’t home. The poll asked basic questions who the voter would vote for Governor, U.S. Representative, which they finally asked questions about Phillip Chen and Ling Ling Chang.
The interesting aspect of the poll was they provided bio statement for each candidate and asked the likeliness of voting for either candidate. When the pollster mentioned Ling Ling Chang, the first thing they stated was that “She was BORN and RAISED in Southern California”. The respondent to the poll stated that they were unlikely to vote for Ling Ling Chang, because they bluntly stated that the “raised and born” part was a lie based on an article from the Orange County Register by Martin Wiskol. The second part mentioned Ling Ling Chang being in charge of an educational organization for 8 years. The respondent again bluntly told the pollster that if someone wants to be part of education, then they need to be in the classroom.
Nevertheless, the CDA IE PAC is also meddling in AD-9 and AD-64 contests supporting Democrats Elk Grove Councilman Jim Cooper and Carson Councilman Mike Gipson, respectively.
This contributor was warned that Charles Munger would find a way to meddle in the AD-55 contest and surely he has one way or the other.
Though, for a IE PAC to coordinate efforts with Munger is very chilling as it should serve as a warning to voters in the 55th AD that Ling Ling Chang isn’t the true Conservative that she is portraying herself as, because a particular IE PAC has already backed Democrat candidates for Assembly.
Posted in 55th Assembly District, Campaign Finance, State Assembly | Tagged: 55th State Assembly District, Campaign Finance, Charles Munger Jr., Independent Expenditure, Ling-Ling Chang | 5 Comments »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 21, 2014
Whenever I write my posts handicapping races, Chris Nguyen gets really angry and stops just short of throwing things at me. With this in mind, I am not going to handicap all races in Orange County. I will select a few races that I find to be a bit more interesting and predict the winners.
We are going to start this season off with a look at the 2nd Supervisorial District race, which features the following candidates:
Voter registration heavily favors Republicans, with Republicans having 44% of registered voters in District 2, compared to Democrats who hold just 29% of voter registration. With that being said, party affiliation matters very little in a race for Orange County Supervisor since the candidates’ parties are not listed on the ballot, so that will definitely help spare Jim Moreno, the lone Democrat in the race. The 2nd Supervisorial District currently has the following cities within its boundaries:
Also, it is important to explain that the way a race for Orange County Supervisor works is that the top two vote getters will advance to November, unless the top vote getter finishes with over 50% of the vote.
Jim Moreno
Jim Moreno is the lone Democrat in the race and the lone candidate with an education-related ballot designation. His political career is limited to his time on the Coast Community College District Board (since 2006). Let’s take a look at his electoral history.
Results from 2010 (General Election):
| COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 1 |
| Completed Precincts: 507 of 507 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| * JIM MORENO | 101,092 | 63.5% |
| SHANA CHRISTINA JENKINS | 58,068 | 36.5% |
Results from 2006 (General Election):
| COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT Governing Board Member Trustee Area 1 |
| Completed Precincts: 497 of 497 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| JIM MORENO | 61696 | 46.0% |
| CARL A. HENDON | 25916 | 19.3% |
| LU TUAN NGUYEN | 25711 | 19.2% |
| TOM HERMSTAD | 20837 | 15.5% |
Moreno does have some name ID through the two elections he has been on the ballot for Coast Community College District.
Moreno has the weakest fundraising numbers as of the last report (under $22,000 cash on hand) and does not appear to have the funds to run a very comprehensive campaign. No direct mail has been sent out at this point, no campaign signs are up, and only a few slates have him on it. I have not gotten any feedback on much of a ground game up to this point which is what he would have needed to have done to be more competitive.
He actually came across very well at the Feet to the Fire candidate debate a few weeks ago, and he was, in my opinion, the second-most impressive candidate at the forum.
Based on the factors above, I think Moreno has a slight chance of advancing to November.
Allan Mansoor
Allan Mansoor beat the odds, if you listened to most predictions back in 2012, when he defeated Leslie Daigle in his re-election bid for the 74th Assembly District. I made the accurate prediction of Mansoor advancing to November with Democrat Bob Rush.
Mansoor spent a number of years as a Costa Mesa Councilmember and then went on to serve as the Assemblymember from the 68th Assembly District in 2010. In 2012 after redistricting, the seat he represents became the 74th Assembly District. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.
Results from 2012 (Open Primary):
| MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 74th District |
| Completed Precincts: 392 of 392 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| ALLAN R. MANSOOR | 33,319 | 43.5% |
| ROBERT RUSH | 25,120 | 32.8% |
| LESLIE DAIGLE | 18,207 | 23.8% |
Results from 2010 (Republican Primary):
| MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 68th District – Republican |
| Completed Precincts: 291 of 291 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| ALLAN R. MANSOOR (REP) | 22,063 | 69.3% |
| LONG PHAM (REP) | 9,777 | 30.7% |
Results from 2006 (General Election):
| CITY OF COSTA MESA Member, City Council |
| Number To Vote For: 2 |
| Completed Precincts: 70 of 70 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| ALLAN R. MANSOOR | 10122 | 25.9% |
| WENDY BROOKS LEECE | 9524 | 24.4% |
| BRUCE GARLICH | 8280 | 21.2% |
| MIKE SCHEAFER | 7255 | 18.6% |
| MIRNA BURCIAGA | 2717 | 7.0% |
| CHRIS BUNYAN | 1190 | 3.0% |
Finally, the results from 2002
| City of Costa Mesa Member, City Council |
| Vote For: 2 |
| Completed Precincts: 81 of 81 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| Gary Monahan | 10,739 | 31.0% |
| Allan R. Mansoor | 7,617 | 22.0% |
| Linda Dixon | 7,092 | 20.5% |
| Katrina Foley | 5,690 | 16.4% |
| William Perkins | 3,520 | 10.2% |
As you can see from the election results, Mansoor has a history of winning elections and has some good name ID in the 2nd Supervisorial District (especially in Costa Mesa). Costa Mesa has the third-most voters of any city in the 2nd Supervisorial District, behind Newport Beach and Huntington Beach.
However, Mansoor has had abysmal fundraising numbers as of the last report (less than $62,000 cash-on-hand) and has not run a very impressive campaign. According to our blogger, Marion Morrison, Mansoor went negative in his very first piece of mail in this race. It is a basic rule in campaigning that you have to go positive at least twice before you can go negative. Also, Mansoor has some of the worst campaign signs that I have ever seen with his name appearing in very small letters on the sign. I have not heard of him appearing on any slates at this point. His campaign appears to be focused mostly on going to lots of events.
I will give him a break on his performance at the Feet to the Fire candidate forum, since the debate is an absolute circus (if I was prepping a client for this debate, it would include people with vuvuzelas and other noisemakers to try and create as many distractions as possible).
All of this, combined with a late start to the campaign, in my book, make it a large uphill battle for Mansoor.
Joe Carchio
Joe Carchio might be the most interesting of the candidates running for this seat who are not named Michelle Steel. Carchio is currently a Councilmember from Huntington Beach, which is the largest city in the 2nd Supervisorial District. Prior to his time on the council, he owned the popular restaurant, “Jersey Joe’s” in Huntington Beach.
Carchio has been a consistent winner in both elections that he participated in for Huntington Beach City Council. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.
Results from 2010 (General Election):
| CITY OF HUNTINGTON BEACH Member, City Council |
| Number To Vote For: 4 |
| Completed Precincts: 152 of 152 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| CONNIE BOARDMAN | 20,019 | 9.4% |
| * JOE CARCHIO | 18,523 | 8.7% |
| MATTHEW HARPER | 15,886 | 7.5% |
| JOE SHAW | 14,585 | 6.9% |
| BARBARA DELGLEIZE | 14,171 | 6.7% |
| BLAIR FARLEY | 13,932 | 6.5% |
| BILLY O’CONNELL | 13,175 | 6.2% |
| JIM KATAPODIS | 13,100 | 6.2% |
| FRED J. SPEAKER | 11,183 | 5.3% |
| DAN KALMICK | 10,775 | 5.1% |
| NORM WESTWELL | 10,187 | 4.8% |
| BILL RORICK | 9,835 | 4.6% |
| HEATHER GROW | 9,624 | 4.5% |
| SHAWN ROSELIUS | 7,628 | 3.6% |
| ERIK PETERSON | 7,137 | 3.4% |
| BRUCE J. BRANDT | 7,125 | 3.3% |
| LANDON FICHTNER | 4,654 | 2.2% |
| ANDRISSA DOMINGUEZ | 4,440 | 2.1% |
| WILLIAM GRUNWALD | 3,652 | 1.7% |
| JOHN VON HOLLE | 3,209 | 1.5% |
| BLAKE ROSE (W) | 50 | 0.0% |
Results from 2006 (General Election):
| CITY OF HUNTINGTON BEACH Member, City Council |
| Number To Vote For: 4 |
| Completed Precincts: 155 of 155 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| CATHY GREEN | 31172 | 18.6% |
| JILL HARDY | 28582 | 17.0% |
| GIL COERPER | 24895 | 14.8% |
| JOE “JERSEY JOE” CARCHIO | 24573 | 14.6% |
| FLORENCE “FLOSSIE” HORGAN | 23709 | 14.1% |
| JOE SHAW | 20632 | 12.3% |
| NORM “FIRECRACKER” WESTWELL | 14282 | 8.5% |
Carchio finished a great deal stronger in 2010 than he did in 2006 as evidenced by the above results. With Huntington Beach being the largest city in the district, it will make for a very interesting election night depending on voter turnout, considering Carchio does have a strong base of support in Huntington Beach.
Impressively, Carchio has the second-highest amount money, as of the last campaign finance report (over $67,000 cash on hand) but has not spent it on anything tangible from what I have seen. I have not heard about any direct mail, slate mail, signs, or large amount of precinct walking.
At one point during the Feet to the Fire candidate debate, I could have sworn that Carchio was ignored for 30 minutes straight, without saying a word. If he starts to spend his money on voter contact, it will make things very interesting.
I believe that Carchio will be extremely close to Mansoor on election night.
Michelle Steel
Calling Michelle Steel the front-runner would be an understatement. Steel, who is currently on the State Board of Equalization, leads in about every category that I have seen and has run an extremely efficient and well-organized campaign.
Steel has been elected twice to the California State Board of Equalization. Let’s take a brief look at her electoral history.
Results from 2010 (Republican Primary):
| Member, State Board of Equalization 3rd District – Republican |
| Completed Precincts: 2084 of 2084 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| * MICHELLE STEEL (REP) | 167,669 | 70.3% |
| VIC BAKER (REP) | 70,852 | 29.7% |
Results from 2006 (Republican Primary):
| Member, State Board of Equalization 3rd District – Republican |
| Completed Precincts: 2076 of 2076 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| MICHELLE STEEL (REP) | 77757 | 41.4% |
| RAY HAYNES (REP) | 59023 | 31.4% |
| STEVE PETRUZZO (REP) | 27788 | 14.8% |
| HAL “JIMBO” STYLES (REP) | 12155 | 6.5% |
| LEWIS A. DA SILVA (REP) | 11040 | 5.9% |
It is first and foremost, important to note that Steel has appeared on the ballot twice to the entire 2nd Supervisorial District (and all of Orange County for that matter) thanks to complete overlap by her State Board of Equalization seat. Steel was impressive with both her margin of victory in 2010 as an incumbent and her victory over well-known Assemblyman Ray Haynes in 2006.
Steel has an impressive fundraising lead over all of her opponents combined (over $500,000 cash on hand) and has dominated the campaign when it comes to voter contact. I have seen at least 8 mailers that have arrived from her campaign, and it is clear that she is trying to end this thing in June by breaking 50% in the primary. She has also dominated slate mail, signs, endorsements, and precinct walking. Most impressively, she received the endorsement of the OC Register, which should move the needle a few points on election night.
Based on my opinion of the Feet to the Fire candidate debate, I would say Steel has a great knowledge of the issues that exist at the County of Orange, and she came across very well to voters. I was actually quite impressed with her accuracy when I fact-checked some of the numbers that she threw out to the audience at the candidate debate.
Prediction Time
Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict the winner will be
Michelle Steel (in June) – I think she is going to clear 50% of the vote.
Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District | Tagged: Allan Mansoor, Jim Moreno, Joe Carchio, Michelle Steel | 4 Comments »
Posted by Craig P. Alexander on May 21, 2014
It is no secret that Palo Alto physicist and political financier Charles Munger likes to put his money into Republican v. Republican races. What is his goal? In my opinion to remake the California Republican Party in his own liberal / moderate image complete with a platform that takes no position on social issues (or takes pro-abortion / pro-homosexual marriage positions). Thus you can count on the candidates he backs to appoint delegates to the CRP who will be Charles Munger approved and vote they way he wants.
In the 73rd Assembly District (where I live) there are four Republicans and one Democrat running to replace Diane Harkey who is termed out (and running for the State Board of Equalization). One of the Republicans is CUSD school board trustee Anna Bryson who I used to support. However after she won re-election in 2010 she took a sharp turn towards the teachers union and started voting for their causes and positions. I have posted about this before: Why Does the Teachers Union Love Anna Bryson? Due to these votes, I and many others who supported her previously do not support her for any elected position including this one.
Now her major financial backer, Charles Munger, has put into his Spirit of Democracy PAC $250,000 to support Ms. Bryson in her quest for the 73rd Assembly seat. John Harbe over at CalNewsroom.com blog has posted an excellent article outlining how Mr. Munger has spent $322,713 (inclusive of the recent $250,000 into his PAC for her) in support of Ms. Bryson (73rd Assembly: Charles Munger). This is more than all of the candidates have raised for this race combined.
Apparently those of us living in the 73rd Assembly District will now be subjected to TV and other media ads for Ms. Bryson. While she touts herself as a conservative – her voting record (as I have posted about in the above link) tells a very different story. In addition, she recently lost a challenge to her ballot statement when the judge found she had made a false and misleading statement in it (and it was stricken and amended by the judge). I posted on this blog twice about that. Breaking News & Follow Up the latter post including a link to an excellent article by Katy Grimes over at the Flashreport on this subject.
What is particularly disappointing to me are the number of conservatives who have either not vetted her record, spoken to local activists like myself or simply don’t care about her record and endorse her anyway. These include people like Edwin Meese, III, George Shultz, Hugh Hewitt and Assemblyman Don Wagner. I note that none of them live in the 73rd Assembly District. I don’t know if these conservatives realize it, but by supporting someone like Anna Bryson, they are supporting someone who is now extremely beholden to Charles Munger. She will likely join him in making the CRP are much more liberal place where conservatives like them are not welcome. This is in addition to adding her wobbly voting record to the floor of the State Assembly.
For me, I will continue to support the real conservative in the race for the 73rd Assembly District: Dana Point City Councilman Bill Brough. (Why I Am Supporting Bill Brough) I should note that the California Republican Assembly endorsed Bill Brough (CRA RECAP) and he was featured in our recent mailer which Chris Emami just reported on (CRA Newspaper). Anna Bryson did not even show up to the CRA endorsing convention to ask for the endorsement or defend her voting record – even though she was invited to do so. Naturally I hope that Charles Munger cannot buy this seat for her and Bill Brough will be one of the top two to advance to November.
Posted in 73rd Assembly District, Capistrano Unified School District, Dana Point, Uncategorized | Tagged: Anna Bryson, Assemblyman Don Wagner, Bill Brough, California Republican Assembly, CalNewsroom.com, Charles Munger, CRA, CRP, Edwin Meese, FlashReport, George Shultz, Hugh Hewitt, John Harbe, Katy Grimes, Spirit of Democracy PAC | 4 Comments »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 21, 2014
I am a big fan of 3 slate mailers, in particular: the Landslide Communications slates by Jim Lacy which are always phenomenal, the new United Taxpayers of OC slate by Lewis Consulting Group, and the CRA newspaper, which does a great job putting together quality content for voters.
Here is a look at the CRA Slate that went out this election cycle in South Orange County.
Posted in Mail | 2 Comments »
Posted by Scott Carpenter on May 21, 2014
Being that I don’t live in Assembly District 74 I haven’t be privileged to receive the onslaught of mailers from the various candidates in the race. I’ve relied largely on this blog and Allan Bartlett’s blog for info on the race. I did post previously on this race because of the pure entertainment value the “Feet to the Fire” forum provided. But since then all I have been able to see is the mailers and slates being posted, and of course the various articles about Karina Onofre trying to bring the Clippers to Orange County. As a Clipper fan I would love that, however I don’t see it as a realistic possibility at least in the next five years.
That was until a former co-worker of mine, sent me a message on facebook: “Scott, did you see the latest? Leadership – I will help you reach your dreams! That’s part of Karina “Karina” Onofre’s platform now” I immediately though “WHAT? THAT’S FROM NAPOLEON DYNAMITE!” So I had to see for myself, and sure enough on her facebook page there it is, right in her platform on her cover photo in the third bullet point:
For those of you who don’t remember the movie, its from Napoleon’s buddy Pedro’s famous speech while running for Student Body President.
Part of me is really glad SOMEBODY finally incorporated Pedro’s famous tag line into an actual political campaign, candidates have been missing out on this piece of gold for nearly a decade!
Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: 74th Assembly, Anila Ali, Emanuel Patrascu, Karina Onofre, Keith Curry, Matthew Harper | 1 Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 20, 2014
This hit piece was sent to CD 45 voters from the Mimi Walters this month:
At first, I thought that this was a well-done hit piece that attacks Raths for serving in the Clinton Administration, but then I recalled reading Raths’ biography, which mentioned what he was doing for the White House. At the time, he served in the position of Assistant Chief of Staff of the White House Military Office. Generally, it is not a good idea for candidates to try and attack their opponent’s military service.
If Raths brings this to the attention of the OC Register to get some mainstream media coverage or sends out a mailer touting what has transpired, the CD-45 race could get very interesting.
Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: Greg Raths, Mimi Walters | 11 Comments »
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