OC Political

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Archive for April, 2012

The Lincoln Club celebrates 50 years

Posted by Brenda Higgins on April 15, 2012

The Lincoln Club Gala, celebrating it’s 50th birthday was held Saturday night, April 14, 2012 at the Balboa Bay Club. There were nearly 500 in attendance, including a variety of elected officials and candidates. In attendance were, Villa Park Councilwoman, Debra Pauly, Candidate for the Third Supervisorial District Todd Spitzer, U.S. Representative Ed Royce, State Senator Bob Huff, Vice Chair of the Board of Education Michelle Steel, State Senator Mimi Walters, Placentia Mayor Jeremy Yamaguchi, Mayor of Orange Carolyn Caveche, Mayor Pro-Tem Dennis Bilodeau, Central Committee Chair Scott Baugh, Honorable Judge David Belz, this list is by no means exhaustive. Karl Rove was the keynote speaker of the evening.

There was a series of video interviews with elected officials. Which included, a rendition of the history of the Lincoln Club from it’s inception in 1962 with the defeat of Richard Nixon by Pat Brown for the Governor of California, as well as some historic photos and audio interviews. Buck Johns had some remarks and was as entertaining as always. Doy Henley was recognized for his achievement and contribution.

Karl Rove was engaging and personable. He approached our table, shook hands and introduced himself, which I thought was kind and impressive. Connecting with people may be more of a gift than a learned skill, whichever it is Mr. Rove has it.  He is natural and articulate, did not miss a beat when there was a commotion at one corner of the room, spoke without notes or teleprompter. The talk was immensely fact intensive on the costs of PPACA, the net effect of the Buffet tax on revenue, Social Security and Medicare shortfalls, and the inconsistency of the Obama administration in sticking to campaign promises. He concluded with a remark that the policies of the current administration, if allowed to play out for another four years, are likely to fundamentally change our country in a very harmful way. He also encouraged a focus on the history of the Lincoln Club to bolster faith in our collective power to have an effect upon the upcoming elections, and not to give too much credit to the media reports and statistics that show the president performing favorably.

A worthy celebration of the esteemed Lincoln Club. Happy Birthday.

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Bill Campbell’s Third District Report

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 14, 2012

This came over the wire from Supervisor Bill Campbell’s office…

Photo of Supervisor Campbell, Bill Campbell Supervisor 3rd District, Newsletter, Read the rest of this entry »

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Spitzer Campaign Open House

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 14, 2012

This came over the wire from the Spitzer campaign…

Spitzer Fundraiser Hosted by Scott Baugh

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CA CD 46 Jerry Hayden: “Obamacare Is Holding Back the Economy.”

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 13, 2012

This just came across the wire from the Jerry Hayden for Congress campaign:

CA CD 46 Jerry Hayden: “Obamacare Is Holding Back the Economy.”

(Santa Ana, CA)- Today, Orange County Businessman and California GOP endorsed candidate Jerry Hayden called out Obamacare as one of the major reasons the economy continues to languish and is hurting the people of the 46th Congressional District. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 46th Congressional District | Tagged: | 2 Comments »

Nuclear Engineer & GOP Assembly Candidate Long Pham Blasts High Speed Rail for Poor Planning

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 13, 2012

This came across the wire from the Long Pham for Assembly campaign:

Nuclear Engineer & GOP Assembly Candidate Long Pham Blasts High Speed Rail for Poor Planning 

(Fountain Valley, CA)- Nationally renowned nuclear engineer and GOP Assembly Candidate Dr. Long Pham blasted the latest High Speed Rail plan today, calling it short-sighted and wrought with poor planning. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

NOCCC’s Meet the Candidates Night: Central Committee, City Councils (Yorba Linda, Placentia, Fullerton, Anaheim), 3rd Supervisorial District, CD-45

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 13, 2012

North Orange County Conservative CoalitionThe North Orange County Conservative Coalition held a meet the candidates night last night in Anaheim Hills.  By my quick crowd estimate, I believe 75-100 people were present.

Desare’ Ferraro organized the meeting which was guest emceed by Orange County Register writer Brian Calle.  Calle also brought the students from the “Mass Media Ethics” course he teaches at Cal State Fullerton.

Deborah Pauly and John Webb were crowd pleasers.  Todd Spitzer sent a video camera to film Pauly.

I was shocked to see John Leos speak.

Here’s a run down of the remarks by various candidates (please note that I am paraphrasing what the candidates said; I haven’t run a fact-check on the numerical data several of them asserted; also, I was attempting to write as fast as candidates spoke, so apologies to any candidates for incorrect transcriptions; please feel free to comment below with corrections).

Central Committee

Oddly, candidates for the Republican Party Central Committee did not get a chance to speak.  They were only introduced by Calle, stood as a group at the front, and then sat back down.

The Central Committee candidates present were:

55th District

  • Jim Domen
  • Desare’ Ferraro
  • Connie Lanzisera
  • Robert Lauten
  • Brenda McCune (our OC Political blogger)
  • Dennis R. White

65th District

  • Greg Sebourn
  • Pat Shuff

68th District

  • James Brownfield
  • Deborah Pauly
  • Nick Wilson

There was a 12th candidate present, but I did not catch the candidate’s name, and the candidate failed to sign in on the NOCCC’s candidate sign-in sheet.

Yorba Linda City Council

After the Central Committee mass introduction, the first speakers were candidate for the Yorba Linda City Council.

Incumbent Councilwoman Nancy Rikel spoke first.  She spoke of her successful efforts on Measure B (any major zoning change that exceeds housing densities in Yorba Linda’s current zoning and/or General Plan must be approved by a majority vote), her battles against eminent domain, and her efforts to pass an ethics measure.  In response to a question from the audience, she described the process to determine Yorba Linda’s police contract.

Candidate Jim Domen spoke second.  He spoke of his co-founding of NOCCC.  He also described how he became President of his homeowners association.  He felt it was analogous to government: before his presidency, the HOA kept raising dues, similarly to the government raising taxes; during his presidency, he opposed raising dues and used his business experience to cut spending, as government should cut spending instead of raising taxes.  He also spoke of his background as a Yorba Linda native and his international business and economics education.  In response to a question from the audience, he stated that he supported doing price comparisons between different police agencies in determining the Yorba Linda police contract.

Placentia City Council

Incumbent Councilman Jeremy Yamaguchi (currently serving as Mayor) made a joke about his council service giving him gray hair (he’s 23), and then spoke of his record fighting for fiscally conservative policies, protection of private property, reduction of business regulations, and holding the line against unions.  He noted his battle against a strange proposal to regulate Placentia garage sales and against borrowing money for a parking structure for the Placentia train station for a train that doesn’t yet exist.  In response to a question from the audience, he stated the only Councilmember to not vote for forming an Economic Development Commission was Connie Underhill, who he noted had been on the Placentia City Council for nearly his entire life.

Fullerton Recall Candidates

Greg Sebourn, who is running in the race to replace Don Bankhead, spoke of the illegal water fee that spiked residents water bills by 10%, which went to the general fund.  He stated that 80% of the general fund goes to employee pensions, salaries, and benefits.

Barry Levinson, who is running in the race to replace Pat McKinley, spoke of how ill-prepared recall targets Bankhead, McKinley, and Dick Jones seem at meetings; it seems to him that the trio don’t even read their council agendas before showing up to meetings.  He spoke of a Stanford study that found Fullerton’s unfunded pension liability is $500 million.  He spoke of Fullerton being targetted by a dozen lawsuits that could cost the city $100 million, thanks to McKinley (police chief until shortly before he ran for Council) and the Fullerton Police Department.  He noted those two figures totaled $600 million, while Fullerton’s general fund is $65 million.

Rick Alvarez, who is running in the race to replace Don Bankhead, spoke of his family’s immigrant background.  He said he is running as a uniter not a divider.  He also noted he is a Planning Commissioner and Traffic Commissioner.

Anaheim City Council

Brian Chuchua spoke of his opposition to the plan to permit the GardenWalk Hotel to retain $158 million (80%) of the transient occupancy tax (TOT) the hotel collects while the City does not allow any other hotel to do the same.  He stated the transient occupancy tax is 43% of Anaheim’s general fund.  He said he was removed as an Anaheim Chamber Ambassador due to this position on this issue.  In response to a question from the audience, he said he is opposed to the high-speed rail project.

I was shocked by who spoke next.

John Leos opened with, “Talk about walking into the lion’s den.”  He noted that his family immigrated to Anaheim 100 years ago.  He graduated from Canyon High School (author’s note: Emami and I are also Canyon grads), which is literally a block away from the site of the NOCCC meeting.  He stated he is a labor union member, and labor is very divided on the $158 million GardenWalk Hotel TOT plan, but that Leos himself opposed the plan.

Third District Supervisor

While being filmed by a representative of the Todd Spitzer campaign, Deborah Pauly spoke to the NOCCC.  She stated the Board of Supervisors needs “at least one limited government fiscal conservative who represents the people.”  She then noted the cameraman, stared straight into the camera and declared her opponent to be a “retread, big government, special interest career politician.”  She pointed to Spitzer’s brochure which has the word integrity right under his picture and stated his consultant believed Spitzer has an intergrity problem.  She stated Spitzer waves around a flyer showing he got an “A” rating from the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association during his tenure in the Assembly, but she stated Spitzer sent a $1000 check to to get their endorsement, but the check was refused, as the HJTA “cannot be bought.”  She then showed a letter from HJTA endorsing her, not Spitzer, for the Third Supervisorial District seat.  She noted in December 2001 that Spitzer not only voted for 3%@50, but he actually made the motion to pass 3%@50 during his previous stint as Supervisor.  She disputed his statements that no one understood the costs of 3%@50 at the time, as she pointed to a November 2001 actuarial report that was in the Board of Supervisors agenda that she stated warned about the costs of implementing 3%@50.

In response to a question from the audience about the well-known video of her speaking in Yorba Linda, Pauly said she was not speaking about “peaceful moderate Muslims” but of two specific men from the Muslim brotherhood, including Malik Ali.

In response to a question from the audience, she noted that Supervisors John Moorlach and Shawn Nelson had not endorsed either candidate in the Third Supervisorial District and that Supervisors Pat Bates and Janet Nguyen endorsed Spitzer because “apparently, they like money.”

In response to a bizarre question from the audience about the Republican Party equalizing funding for candidates to stop multimillionaire candidates (author’s note: I think the audience member mistakenly thought the $1 million Spitzer warchest was Spitzer’s personal wealth rather than the fact that Spitzer raised all of that money and is not independently wealthy), Pauly stated Scott Baugh was “falling all over” himself to endorse Spitzer.  Pauly noted that voters don’t like the feeling of being purchased in an election.  She praised the Stop Special Interest Money Now ballot initiative.

In response to a question from the audience, Pauly stated she has not decided on Laura’s Law, as there needs to be a balance between helping people with great need and the potential to abuse the law with false mental health allegations.

Spitzer’s cameraman spoke next, stating he’s a volunteer.  He spoke of Spitzer helping his family on a crime issue.  He stated that he (the cameraman not Spitzer) is a Coptic Christian and that the Muslim Brotherhood is in Egypt not the United States.  He stated Spitzer was speaking at the Mission Viejo Tea Party on Monday (a Tea Party Patriot organizer in the audience shouted out it was a false tea party) and invited NOCCC to attend.  The cameraman also invited the audience to attend Spitzer’s open house on Tuesday.

In response to a question from the audience, the cameraman could not confirm or deny if Spitzer would serve a full four-year term.

In response to a question from the audience, the cameraman stated Spitzer was not present due to a scheduling conflict with a long-scheduled open coffee in Irvine.

45th Congressional District

John Webb spoke of his goal of changing the tax structure, restraining the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and supporting energy independence to ensure “no more wars for oil.”

In response to a question from the audience, Webb said he is personally opposed to the California Air Resources Board, calling it a bad idea from the 1960s when “we smoked dope.”  He, however, stated he was for states’ rights, implying Congress should not interfere with CARB.

In response to a question from the audience, Webb stated that if elected, he would be the sole member of Congress from Orange County who has combat experience.  He cited his military record, his record as a robbery/homicide detective, and his business record.  He stated President Barack Obama has committed impeachable offenses.

In response to a question from the audience, he stated the differences between himself and incumbent Congressman John Campbell is that Campbell voted fro TARP, Cash for Clunkers, and Sarbanes-Oxley expansion while Webb would have voted against those actions.  Webb also stated Campbell was one of only two Congressmen to vote against the STOCK Act.  Webb also said he heard a rumor that Campbell introduced legislation to control the type of bait used in Montana.

In response to a question from the audience, Webb said he would do not just town hall meetings but would go to voters’ homes.

In response to a question from the audience, Webb said he would fly on commercial airlines between Washington, DC and Orange County if elected, very likely on Southwest Airlines.

U.S. Senate

Robert Lauten spoke about wanting to revive the Glass-Steagall Act, to declare U.S. debt fictional, to implement a Hamiltonian economic system, and wanting to abolish the Federal Reserve.  He also accused “State Treasurer Richard Citron” of causing the 1994 Orange County bankruptcy (author’s note: for the record, it was County Treasurer-Tax Collector Robert Citron).

The audience looked at Lauten like he was completely nuts.

Wrap Up

All of the above was done in 90 minutes.  The program was slated for 60 minutes and was running on schedule until the Third Supervisorial District and 45th Congressional District ran over time and took up nearly half the program.

(Disclaimer related to Fullerton recall section above: In the interest of full disclosure, I should note my day job is working in the Fullerton office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who served on the Fullerton City Council from 1984-2002.  One of my co-workers in the office is Fullerton City Councilman Bruce Whitaker, who was elected in 2010 and is not a target of the recall.)

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, 45th Congressional District, Anaheim, Fullerton, Placentia, Republican Central Committee, Yorba Linda | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 49th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 12, 2012

Last prediction post of the day.

We have a new U.S. Representative in Orange County even though it only covers a very tiny portion of South County.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

CD 49 is a mix of the northern coastal part of San Diego and also the Southernmost tip of Orange County. It has a 14 point Republican registration advantage and a conservative leaning DTS voter base.

Much like some of the other conservative seats that I have referenced, this one has had a Republican victory in every major race back in 2008 and 2010. Nothing should change in 2012 unless the incumbent decides to drop out to pursue other interests.

Incumbent Congressman Darrel Issa has found his way up to Orange County. This is a pretty good trade off for Orange County residents to get Darrell Issa as opposed to Ken Calvert being one of our Congressional Representatives.

His challengers include:

Jerry Tetalman a Registered Nurse/Realtor who is running as a Democrat.

Dick Eiden a Retired Attorney who is running as No Party Preference.

Albin Novinec a Realtor who is running as No Party Preference.

The factors at play- Darrell Issa is the only incumbent, the only Republican, and has the highest name ID in this district.

The 2 candidates running as NPP will both split the vote of DTS voters who are already low turnout voters in primaries.

The lone Democrat will pull votes based on party and will likely do enough to get the party to support him through June.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Darrell Issa & Jerry Tetalman

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2012 Primary Election Predictions: 48th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 12, 2012

Now back to the boring and obvious races for Congress, we move on to the 48th Congressional District which covers coastal Orange County.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat is currently a Republican stronghold with a 17 point registration advantage. Also, in 2008 and 2010 Republicans one every single major race in this district. Even after redistricting took place, it is clear that this seat is not in play. DTS voters in this district almost outnumber Democrats, lagging by just 7 points in registration.

Incumbent Congressman Dana Rohrabacher has represented a portion of this district as part of his old one. He also picks up some of the old parts of the old John Campbell district. With the amount of name ID he has it will be very tough to see a candidate put up a serious fight in this race.

I don’t know why, but I genuinely dislike his website. My hope is that he switches to something a little bit less busy.

His challengers include:

Ron Varasteh an Engineer/Small Businessman who is running as a Democrat.

Alan Schlar a Marketing Sales Executive who is running with No Party Preference.

The factors at play- Dana Rohrabacher is the only viable candidate in this race for a large number of reasons, including name ID, campaign experience, party affiliation, ballot designation, etc…

Between the other candidates running it comes down to a couple of factors. Do Democrats turn out to vote at a higher rate than DTS voters? Do Republicans who perhaps are more moderate vote for the (NPP) candidate instead of Rohrabacher or Varasteh.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Dana Rohrabacher & Ron Varasteh

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2012 Primary Election Predictions: 47th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 12, 2012

Today seems like a good day to go ahead and finish up handicapping the rest of the Congressional races. We will start with what I expect to be the most competitive race in both June and November. Sadly, no viable Orange County candidate is running for this seat, and for whatever reason political people in Orange County don’t seem to care much about this race. It is important to note when looking at the map below that even though Laura Richardson lives in this district she has opted to run in a different seat.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat will be an absolute dog fight. I expect resources from Washington D.C. on both sides to be poured in, after the primary is over.

With Laura Richardson opting to run for a different seat it leaves this one wide open. Democrats have around a 10 point registration advantage. However, Long Beach which is the largest part of this district has lower turnout than Orange County. Add in a conservative leaning DTS crowd (20.5% registration) and you get a fun race to watch.

Republican Steve Cooley did get more votes than Kamala Harris in this race and Proposition 8 did pass. The Democrats have had an advantage here though in both 200 and 2010.

The primary is already a circus with 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans all vying to make it into the top 2. Based on registration it is fairly obvious that one candidate from each party will emerge.

Candidates include:

State Senator Alan Lowenthal who will have the ability to run a strong campaign having gained experience running for legislature. He is running as a Democrat.

Peter Mathews a College Professor/Educator who is running as a Democrat.

Then comes the curious case of Dr. Jay Shah and Usha Shah who are both running for this seat. Normally it is not shocking to see people with the same last name running for an office, but these two actually live in the same house. If anybody has an explanation on this, I would love to hear what it is.

Long Beach City Councilman Gary DeLong is running, but he chose not to use his elected title as his ballot designation. He is listed as a Republican.

Former Congressman Steve Kuykendall is looking to make a return to D.C. having thrown his hat into the ring.

Steve Foley is the only Orange County candidate running for this seat, but he also made a huge mistake by putting no ballot designation down.

Sanford Kahn is the last Republican running for this seat and he is listed as a Small Business Owner on the ballot (similar to what DeLong used as a designation).

The factors at play- Alan Lowenthal is the most viable Democrat through high Name ID, more campaign experience, and best ballot designation. The Shah’s will split the vote and Mathews although a very brought guy will likely not be able to jump ahead of Lowenthal.

Of the 4 Republicans running, Foley is automatically in the category of having no shot because he did not put down a ballot designation and Kahn does not have enough Name ID to get into the top-tier.

This second slot will clearly come down to DeLong and Kuykendall. Kuykendall was in Congress, has name ID, and clearly knows how to run a race. DeLong is currently on the Long Beach City Council but he made the mistake of not putting his elected title on the ballot.

In the end I think that Kuykendall has simply been out of the game for 10 years and his name ID will be trumped by DeLong who is currently on the Long Beach City Council.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Alan Lowenthal & Gary DeLong

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Moreno’s Attempt to Withdraw from AD-69 & Hatch Act Implications

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 12, 2012

Jose "Joe" Moreno

Jose "Joe" Moreno

The Orange County Register’s Andrew Galvin reported yesterday that on Thursday, March 29, AD-69 candidate Jose “Joe” Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno) wrote a letter to the Registrar of Voters asking to withdraw from the AD-69 race:

I Jose Moreno a candidate running for the 69th Assembly District, request that the Orange County Registrar of Voters, effective immediately remove my name as a candidate for the aforementioned office.  I have learned that I may be violating the Hatch Act, as an employee working for a federally funded agency.

Registrar Neal Kelley responded to Moreno the same day denying the request.  (I do find it odd that the Registrar did not send this request to the Secretary of State’s office, as that office is the one that makes final determinations as to the appearance on the ballot of candidates for State offices, like the Assembly.)

After Kelley refused to remove Moreno from the ballot, the Register reported that Moreno decided that “he will continue to actively campaign for the Assembly seat.”

On Friday, April 6, the Fresno Bee reported that candidate Geof Lickey got off the ballot in the AD-31 race due to the Hatch Act.

On Monday, April 9, I wrote a post speculating about Moreno’s eligibility to run due to the Hatch Act.

The Register wrote that Moreno “expects to lose his job” while his employer, “the Social Services Agency, said the agency doesn’t comment on personnel matters.”  Either Moreno’s speculation about losing his job is overblown or the County Social Services Agency is overreacting, as firing Moreno is the toughest penalty available under the Hatch Act.

The U.S. Office of Special Counsel is responsible for investigating and charging violations of the Hatch Act (essentially, they fulfill the enforcement role for the Hatch Act), which is adjudicated before the Merit Systems Protection Board.

In a 2007 advisory opinion to a candidate, the U.S. Office of Special Counsel wrote:

OSC did not open an investigation into the matter because you withdrew your candidacy once we informed you that the Hatch Act prohibited it. Because you attempted to come into compliance with the law, we did not view your violation as a knowing and willful one…OSC has not opened an investigation into this matter because you attempted to withdraw from the election…Accepting an appointment to this same position does not, in our opinion, evidence good faith on your part. Thus, if you were to accept an appointment to the [position]…OSC would consider the acceptance an aggravating factor in this matter, which likely would cause us to open an investigation.”

In other words, a good faith effort to withdraw from an election is enough to mitigate the penalties of the Hatch Act, provided the candidate does not attempt to pursue the office after the withdrawal effort.

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »