Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 14, 2012
On Friday evening, there were 17,125 uncounted ballots.
By Monday evening, there were 14,724 uncounted ballots, meaning 2,401 ballots were resolved on Monday.
By Tuesday evening, there were 9,528 uncounted ballots, meaning 5,196 ballots were resolved on Tuesday.
By last night, there were 4,625 uncounted ballots, meaning 4,903 ballots were resolved on Wednesday.
At the rate they’re going, it’s highly likely the Registrar of Voters completes the vote count today.
For visual learners:
There are only a few races that could still be affected by the outstanding ballots.
- Will Ray Grangoff close his 51-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District? Will Ken Williams close both his 115-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway and his 64-vote deficit to overtake Ray Grangroff for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District?
- Will Bill Dunlap close his 62-vote deficit to overtake John Draper for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 74th District?
Those two races are the only ones in all of Orange County where the gap between the elected and the unelected (or 2nd and 3rd place in those fighting to advance to November from primaries) is 0.3% or less. It is highly unlikely the 4,625 outstanding ballots would move the needle any more than 0.3%.
There are a couple races where the current leads would be unaffected by the remaining 4,625 ballots, but where the gap could close enough to lead the 3rd or 4th place candidate to pay for a recount to advance to November from the primaries. (I’m assuming no one’s going to pay for a recount for any party’s Central Committee.)
| 69th Assembly District |
| Tom Daly (D) |
10,862 |
39.3% |
| Jose “Joe” Moreno (R) |
5,933 |
21.5% |
| Julio Perez (D) |
5,649 |
20.4% |
| Michele Martinez (D) |
4,614 |
16.7% |
| Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D) |
594 |
2.1% |
Team Perez is likely contemplating whether they’ll pay for a recount if they get within 1% of Jose Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno). Perez’s allies spent six figures trying to elect him, so the cost of a recount wouldn’t be out of the question for them.
| 72nd Assembly District |
| Troy Edgar (R) |
17,968 |
28.0% |
| Travis Allen (R) |
12,726 |
19.8% |
| Joe Dovinh (D) |
12,353 |
19.3% |
| Long Pham (R) |
12,325 |
19.2% |
| Albert Ayala (D) |
8,756 |
13.7% |
Long Pham is likely contemplating if he will pay for a recount if he gets within 0.5% of Travis Allen. It’s unlikely Joe Dovinh or his team have the financial resources to pay for a recount. Pham would need to dig into his own pockets for a recount. He’s already spent $100,000 of his personal funds on his campaign and making 2nd place to get to the November general election against Troy Edgar may be the only way he recoups that $100,000.
The 1% for Perez vs. the 0.5% for Pham is on the basis that Perez would be more aggressive than Pham in pursuing a recount, as Perez’s allies spent more and have deeper pockets to pay for a recount while Pham spent less and has more shallow (less deep?) pockets.
Posted in 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, Orange County, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Albert Ayala, ballots, Bill Dunlap, Francisco Barragan, Jeff Lalloway, Joe Dovinh, John Draper, Jose Moreno, Julio Perez, Ken L. Williams Jr., Long Pham, Michele Martinez, Orange County Registrar of Voters, Paco Barragan, Ray Grangoff, Tom Daly, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 24, 2012
AD 68 will be a blood bath in many different ways. Both candidates for the 3rd Supervisorial District are running for this. 8 of the candidates are elected officials in the district. Only 3 of the candidates running are incumbents which will allow for three challengers to get elected.
Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.
The candidates include:
Mark William Bucher– The OC GOP is lucky to have this guy. He is not only one of the true conservatives who has done a lot for the Republican cause, but he is also the OC GOP Treasurer.
Ken L. Williams Jr.– He is currently an elected member of the Orange County Board of Education and a past member of the OC GOP Central Committee.
Noel Stone Parrish– I could be mixing her up with somebody else but it appears that she is a former resident of Los Angeles County who moved to Orange County.
Todd Spitzer– He is currently a candidate for Orange County Supervisor in the 3rd District and an elected member to the OC GOP Central Committee. *incumbent.
Marcia Gilchrist– She has been a solid voice in Republican politics for a long time including her service as an elected member of the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.
Deborah Pauly– She is currently a member of the Villa Park City Council and Vice Chair of the OC GOP. Also she is rumored to possibly be running for Supervisor against Todd Spitzer. *Incumbent.
Walter H. Myers III– He is someone who I consider to be a friend and he is also a very solid Republican as well. We are clearly rooting for our fellow blogger here at OC Political to win.
Lynn Schott– She is currently an elected member of the OC GOP Central Committee. It might be just me, but she comes across as angry all the time.
Nick Wilson– He is currently a Tea Party Republican who is running for a second time for this Central Committee seat after a tough loss in 2010.
Denis Bilodeau– He is currently an elected member of the Orange City Council and Orange County Water district. He was recently appointed to the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.
Ray Grangoff– Currently a member of Supervisor Pat Bates staff and also an elected member of the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.
Scott “Scotty” Voigts– A current elected member of the Lake Forest City Council and also a member of Assemblyman Don Wagner’s staff.
Joshua Robert Morales– I do not know much about Joshua Robert Morales other than the fact that he is running as a Retail Sales Associate.
Jeffrey Lalloway– He is an Irvine City Councilman and also heavily active in the Lincoln Club. He is one of the real good guys in the party.
Jon Dumitru– An Orange City Councilman and Custom Campaigns client running for Mayor against a Democrat. He is the winner of the lottery spot that will put him at the top of the ballot.
Steven S. Choi– He is a Councilmember in Irvine and also the recent runner up in the AD 68 race. He is currently running for Mayor in Irvine against Beth Krom.
James Brownfield– He is listed as a Business Owner on the ballot but outside of that it was not easy to come up with any information about him.
Fred Whitaker– He is currently a Councilmember in Orange and the most recently elected member of the Council in Orange.
The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:
1. Todd Spitzer
2. Mark William Bucher
3. Jon Dumitru
4. Marcia Gilchrist
5. Ray Grangoff
6. Deborah Pauly
Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Deborah Pauly, Denis Bilodeau, Fred Whitaker, James Brownfield, Jeffrey Lalloway, Jon Dumitru, Joshua Robert Morales, Ken L. Williams Jr., Lynn Schott, Marcia Gilchrist, Mark William Bucher, Nick Wilson, Noel Stone Parrish, Ray Grangoff, Scott "Sotty" Voigts, Steven S. Choi, Todd Spitzer, Walter H. Myers III | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on March 12, 2012
The OC GOP Central Committee races have been finalized.
Here are the candidates that qualified for the ballot (top 6 win in each district):
55th Assembly District
Brett Barbre Appointed Incumbent
Jim Domen Pastor
Karla Downing Small Business Owner
Desare Ferraro Small Business Consultant
Peggy Huang Deputy Attorney General
Connie Lanzisera Small Business Owner
Robert Lauten
Brenda McCune Businesswoman/Childrens Advocate
Tim Shaw Mayor, City of La Habra
Dennis R. White Mechanical Engineer
65th Assembly District
Samuel “Sam” Han Appointed Incumbent
Steve Hwangbo Councilman/Businessman/Father
Jerry Jackson Retired Aerospace Engineer
Sou Moua Businessman
Shawn Nelson Orange County Supervisor
Baron Night Incumbent
Greg Sebourn Businessman/Educator
David John Shawver Mayor Pro Tem
Pat Shuff Incumbent
Henry Charoen Mayor/Businessman
Alexandria Coronado Small Business Owner
68th Assembly District
Denis Bilodeau Mayor Pro Tem
James Brownfield Business Owner
Mark William Bucher Incumbent
Steven S. Choi Irvine City Councilman
Jon Dumitru City Councilman
Marcia Gilchrist Incumbent
Ray Grangoff Incumbent
Jeffrey Lalloway Irvine Councilmember/Businessman
Joshua Robert Morales Retail Sales Associate
Walter H. Myers, III Software Consultant
Noel Stone Parrish Businesswoman
Deborah Pauly Councilwoman, City of Villa Park
Lynn Schott Entrepreneur/Educator
Todd Spitzer Businessman/Victims Advocate
Scott “Scotty” Voigts Lake Forest City Councilman
Fred M. Whitaker City of Orange Councilman/Businessman
Ken L. Williams Jr. Member, Orange County Board of Education
Nick Wilson Small Business Owner
69th Assembly District
Cuong Sinh Cao Incumbent
Bryan Carter Software Engineer
Gwen A. Dyrud Appointed Incumbent
Brett Elliott Franklin Incumbent
Thomas Anthony Gordon Incumbent
Robert Morris Hammond Business Owner/Teacher
Charles Hart Appointed Incumbent
Lupe Moreno Office Specialist
Glen Stroud Retired Recreation Supervisor
Timothy “Tim” Ryan Whitacre Incumbent
72nd Assembly District
John W. Briscoe Certified Public Accountant
Dennis R. Catron Small Businessman
Patrick Dooley
Michael E. Gates Businessman/Attorney
Dean Grose Small Business Owner
Matthew Harper Huntington Beach City Councilman
Brian Hoops Special Needs Educator
Diane A. Lenning Small Business Owner
Kermit Marsh Incumbent
Mark McCurdy Fountain Valley City Councilmember
Steve A. Nagel Incumbent
Janet Nguyen Orange County Supervisor
Patricia Ross Homemaker
Mary Tuong Van Pham Businesswoman
73rd Assembly District
Alice Anderson Incumbent
Nesa Anderson Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman
Linda Barnes Community Volunteer
Tony Beall Incumbent
Evan P. Chafee Marketing Sales/Representative
Chandra Chell Computer Systems Analyst
Nina R. Davar Export Assistant Manager
Norm Dickinson Retired Naval Officer
Mark Dobrilovic Financial Advisor
John C. Drew Author/Speaker/Consultant
Dave Duringer Gun Trust Attorney
Jon Steven Fleischman Small Business Owner
Roy Fussell Realtor
Paul Hebbard Certified Public Accountant
Michael Kogus Business Owner
Steve Magdziak Small Business Owner
Mike Munzing Incumbent
Nancy Padberg Governing Board Member, South Orange Co. Community College District
Kevin Richardson Plumbing Contractor
Eric Stolaski Small Business Owner
Greg Woodard Appointed Incumbent
Mary Young Incumbent
74th Assembly District
Jon Aiken Office Clerk
Allan Bartlett Incumbent
Scott Baugh Incumbent
John Draper Businessman
Bill Dunlap General Contractor
Thomas A. “T.J.” Fuentes Businessman
Don Hansen Mayor, City of Huntington Beach
Daniel Marshall Attorney
Jeff Mathews Business Owner
Vanessa A. Matthews Small Business Owner
Gary Morse Retired Business Owner
Richard “Dick” Palmer Community Volunteer
Scott “Scotty” Peotter Businessman/Legislative Analyst
Rhonda Rohrabacher Small Business Owner
Emily Sanford Retired Navy Captain
Christina L. Shea Businesswoman
John Warner Incumbent
This is simply a list of the candidates that qualified for the ballot along with their ballot designations. After the alphabetical lottery we will make some predictions on who we think will actually win these races.
Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Alan Bartlett, Alexandria Coronado, Alice Anderson, Baron Night, Bill Dunlap, Brenda McCune, Brett Barbre, Brett Elliott Frankln, Brian Hoops, Bryan Carter, Chandra Chell, Charles Hart, Christina L. Shea, Connie Lanzisera, Cuong Sinh Cao, Daniel Marshall, Dave Duringer, David John Shawver, Dean Grose, Deborah Pauly, Denis Bilodeau, Dennis R. Catron, Dennis R. White, Desare Ferraro, Diane A. Lenning, Don Hansen, Emily Sanford, Eric Stolaski, Evan P. Chafee, Fred M. Whitaker, Gary Morse, Glen Stroud, Greg Sebourn, Greg Woodard, Gwen A. Dyrud, Henry Charoen, James Brownfield, Janet Nguyen, Jeff Mathews, Jeffrey Lalloway, Jerry Jackson, Jim Domen, John C. Drew, John Draper, John W. Briscoe, John Warner, Jon Aiken, Jon Dumitru, Jon Steven Fleischman, Joshua Robert Morales, Karla Doowning, Ken L. Williams Jr., Kermit Marsh, Kevin Richardson, Linda Barnes, Lupe Moreno, Lynn Schott, Marcia Gilchrist, Mark Dobrilovic, Mark McCurdy, Mark William Bucher, Mary Tuong Van Pham, Mary Young, Matthew Harper, Michael E. Gates, Michael Kogus, Mike Munzing, Nancy Padberg, Nesa Andersoon, Nick Wilson, Nina R. Davar, Noel Stone Parrish, Norm Dickinson, Pat Shuff, Patricia Ross, Patrick Dooley, Paul Hebbard, Peggy Huang, Ray Grangoff, Rhnda Rohrabacher, Richard "Dick" Palmer, Robert Lauten, Robert Morris Hammond, Roy Fussell, Samuel "Sam" Han, Scott "Scotty" Peotter, Scott "Scotty" Voigts, Scott Baugh, Shawn Nelson, Sou Moua, Steve A. Nagel, Steve Hwangbo, Steve Magdziak, Steven S. Choi, Thomas A. "T.J." Fuentes, Thomas Anthony Gordon, Tim Shaw, Timothy "Tim" Ryan Whitacre, Todd Spitzer, Tony Beall, Vanessa A. Matthews, Walter H. Myers III | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on February 29, 2012
Here is part 6 in this 7 part series that is going out this week on the blog.
Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map to show this district:
This Assembly district is currently represented by Assemblyman Don Wagner and represents a chunk of North Orange County along with a large slice of Irvine. With that being said here is the break-down of who has pulled papers:
Ken L. Williams Jr.– He is currently an elected member of the Orange County Board of Education and a past member of the OC GOP Central Committee.
Noel Stone Parrish– I could be mixing her up with somebody else but it appears that she is a former resident of Los Angeles County who moved to Orange County.
Todd Spitzer– He is currently a candidate for Orange County Supervisor in the 3rd District and an elected member to the OC GOP Central Committee. *incumbent.
Marcia Gilchrist– She has been a solid voice in Republican politics for a long time including her service as an elected member of the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.
Deborah Pauly– She is currently a member of the Villa Park City Council and Vice Chair of the OC GOP. Also she is rumored to possibly be running for Supervisor against Todd Spitzer. *Incumbent.
Chris Emami– I don’t know for sure whether or not I will be running.
Walter H. Myers III– He is someone who I consider to be a friend and he is also a very solid Republican as well. We are clearly rooting for our fellow blogger here at OC Political to win.
Lynn Schott– She is currently an elected member of the OC GOP Central Committee. It might be just me, but she comes across as angry all the time.
Nick Wilson– He is currently a Tea Party Republican who is running for a second time for this Central Committee seat after a tough loss in 2010.
Denis Bilodeau– He is currently an elected member of the Orange City Council and Orange County Water district. He was recently appointed to the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.
Ray Grangoff– Currently a member of Supervisor Pat Bates staff and also an elected member of the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.
Scott “Scotty” Voigts– A current elected member of the Lake Forest City Council and also a member of Assemblyman Don Wagner’s staff.
Readers help me out by adding info on any candidates that I may have left out and feel free to fill me in on the candidates I found nothing on.
Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Chris Emami, Deborah Pauly, Denis Bilodeau, Ken Williams, Lynn Schott, Marcia Gilchrist, Nick Wilson, Noel Stone Parrish, Ray Grangoff, Scott Voigts, Todd Spitzer, Walter Myers | Leave a Comment »
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