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Measure J Bond Still Short of 55%, Contrary to OC Numbers – Everyone Forgets LA

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 14, 2014

In the latest numbers from the Orange County Registrar of Voters, Measure J has 55.1%, appearing to break the necessary 55% for the half-billion dollar bond to pass.  Supporters rejoiced and opponents despaired.

J-North Orange County Community College District,
Fullerton/Cypress Colleges Bond Measure
Completed Precincts: 522 of 522
Vote Count Percentage
Bonds – Yes 82,060 55.1%
Bonds – No 66,968 44.9%
 

Both have responded prematurely.  Here’s why:

NO ORANGE CO COMM COLL SP MEASURE J
Los Angeles County Results Only

Measure J Votes Percent
COLLEGE IMPROVEMENT BONDS
YES 1,790 51.44
NO 1,690 48.56
Registration 11,729
Precincts Reporting* 16
Total Precincts 16
% Precincts Reporting 100

Despite being named the North Orange County Community College District, part of the district is in LA County.  Even the Orange County Register forgot.

While Orange County has given daily updates, LA County hasn’t updated since Monday.  Measure J supporters and opponents will be left waiting for LA County to find out the fate of that bond.

Here are what the numbers look like when combining Orange and LA County:

Measure J Votes Percent
Yes 83,850 54.98%
No 68,658 45.02%

With Orange County nearly done counting (if not today, certainly by Monday), LA County is going to determine the fate of Measure J.

Here’s how the district broke down.

Here are the cities where Measure J broke 55%:

City Yes No
Stanton 2247 65.88% 1164 34.12%
Orange 13 65.00% 7 35.00%
Anaheim 19593 60.48% 12802 39.52%
Buena Park 6918 59.03% 4801 40.97%
Garden Grove 2761 58.60% 1951 41.40%
Los Alamitos 1342 57.16% 1006 42.84%
Seal Beach 1262 55.72% 1003 44.28%
La Habra 4493 55.29% 3633 44.71%
 

Here are the cities and unincorporated areas where Measure J failed to break 55% (I’d note Yorba Linda outright voted against Measure J, with 55.52% against the Measure, unlike in the other areas where Measure J fell short of the 55% supermajority but still broke 50%, though Rossmoor is virtually dead even):

City/Area Yes No
Unincorporated OC (Excluding Rossmoor) 1580 54.67% 1310 45.33%
Fullerton 14059 54.60% 11692 45.40%
Placentia 5549 54.35% 4660 45.65%
La Palma 1789 53.50% 1555 46.50%
Cypress 5615 52.59% 5061 47.41%
Brea 4992 52.59% 4500 47.41%
Los Angeles County 1790 51.44% 1690 48.56%
Rossmoor 1744 50.49% 1710 49.51%
Yorba Linda 8103 44.48% 10113 55.52%

3 Responses to “Measure J Bond Still Short of 55%, Contrary to OC Numbers – Everyone Forgets LA”

  1. Greg Diamond said

    “Forgot” presupposes one’s having known. I admit: I had had no idea. Thanks for the correction.

    For the record, though: After today’s vote count, “Yes” stands at 55.0201% across the two counties.

    We don’t know what mix of votes is out there in LA, but whatever it is will swerve towards “Yes” when provisionals come in. I doubt that La Habra Heights has many provisionals, so it comes down to La Mirada and Whittier. I expect that both cities have a lot of students going to Cypress College, who may vote provisionally. In OC, the support among provisional voters was apparently over 63% — it’s hard to be exact because no day has been purely provisionals — which was almost 10% above the general electorate. I still think that Measure J will pass, but you’ve offered a useful reason for doubt.

  2. […] As Chris Nguyen pointed out on Friday, the NOCCCD, which voted on Measure J, includes a handful of precincts from LA County — 14 from La Habra Heights; one precinct each in Whittier and unincorporated La Mirada.  (Chris did not mention that Measure I, from the Fullerton Joint Union High School District, also crosses county lines into La Habra Heights — although at 59% it’s too far ahead for the LA vote to matter.  I think that we should face the facts: La Habra Heights should be ceded to Orange County.  That’s what the Puente Hills decree.)  So, the OC results are insufficient — which matters because La Habra Heights is relatively cooler, by about 4 points, to such measures. […]

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