Measure J Bond Still Short of 55%, Contrary to OC Numbers – Everyone Forgets LA
Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 14, 2014
In the latest numbers from the Orange County Registrar of Voters, Measure J has 55.1%, appearing to break the necessary 55% for the half-billion dollar bond to pass. Supporters rejoiced and opponents despaired.
| J-North Orange County Community College District, Fullerton/Cypress Colleges Bond Measure |
| Completed Precincts: 522 of 522 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| Bonds – Yes | 82,060 | 55.1% |
| Bonds – No | 66,968 | 44.9% |
Both have responded prematurely. Here’s why:
NO ORANGE CO COMM COLL SP MEASURE J
Los Angeles County Results Only
| Measure J | Votes | Percent | |
| COLLEGE IMPROVEMENT BONDS | |||
| YES | 1,790 | 51.44 | |
| NO | 1,690 | 48.56 |
| Registration | 11,729 |
| Precincts Reporting* | 16 |
| Total Precincts | 16 |
| % Precincts Reporting | 100 |
Despite being named the North Orange County Community College District, part of the district is in LA County. Even the Orange County Register forgot.
While Orange County has given daily updates, LA County hasn’t updated since Monday. Measure J supporters and opponents will be left waiting for LA County to find out the fate of that bond.
Here are what the numbers look like when combining Orange and LA County:
| Measure J | Votes | Percent |
| Yes | 83,850 | 54.98% |
| No | 68,658 | 45.02% |
With Orange County nearly done counting (if not today, certainly by Monday), LA County is going to determine the fate of Measure J.
Here’s how the district broke down.
Here are the cities where Measure J broke 55%:
| City | Yes | No | ||
| Stanton | 2247 | 65.88% | 1164 | 34.12% |
| Orange | 13 | 65.00% | 7 | 35.00% |
| Anaheim | 19593 | 60.48% | 12802 | 39.52% |
| Buena Park | 6918 | 59.03% | 4801 | 40.97% |
| Garden Grove | 2761 | 58.60% | 1951 | 41.40% |
| Los Alamitos | 1342 | 57.16% | 1006 | 42.84% |
| Seal Beach | 1262 | 55.72% | 1003 | 44.28% |
| La Habra | 4493 | 55.29% | 3633 | 44.71% |
Here are the cities and unincorporated areas where Measure J failed to break 55% (I’d note Yorba Linda outright voted against Measure J, with 55.52% against the Measure, unlike in the other areas where Measure J fell short of the 55% supermajority but still broke 50%, though Rossmoor is virtually dead even):
| City/Area | Yes | No | ||
| Unincorporated OC (Excluding Rossmoor) | 1580 | 54.67% | 1310 | 45.33% |
| Fullerton | 14059 | 54.60% | 11692 | 45.40% |
| Placentia | 5549 | 54.35% | 4660 | 45.65% |
| La Palma | 1789 | 53.50% | 1555 | 46.50% |
| Cypress | 5615 | 52.59% | 5061 | 47.41% |
| Brea | 4992 | 52.59% | 4500 | 47.41% |
| Los Angeles County | 1790 | 51.44% | 1690 | 48.56% |
| Rossmoor | 1744 | 50.49% | 1710 | 49.51% |
| Yorba Linda | 8103 | 44.48% | 10113 | 55.52% |
OC Political 
Greg Diamond said
“Forgot” presupposes one’s having known. I admit: I had had no idea. Thanks for the correction.
For the record, though: After today’s vote count, “Yes” stands at 55.0201% across the two counties.
We don’t know what mix of votes is out there in LA, but whatever it is will swerve towards “Yes” when provisionals come in. I doubt that La Habra Heights has many provisionals, so it comes down to La Mirada and Whittier. I expect that both cities have a lot of students going to Cypress College, who may vote provisionally. In OC, the support among provisional voters was apparently over 63% — it’s hard to be exact because no day has been purely provisionals — which was almost 10% above the general electorate. I still think that Measure J will pass, but you’ve offered a useful reason for doubt.
Greg Diamond said
Check that. Looking at the NOCCCD’s district map — http://www.nocccd.edu/documents/NOCCCD_TrusteeAreas_ApprovedScenario.pdf — it has very little (as in fewer than two square miles) of Whittier and (unincorporated, I believe) La Mirada, along with almost all of La Habra Heights. So the student vote won’t matter much — but the LA vote won’t be as large either.
50 Ballots Left: A Narrow Nguyen Win (By 15) Over Broadwater; Measure ‘J’ Could Still Be Far Closer Than That | Orange Juice Blog said
[…] As Chris Nguyen pointed out on Friday, the NOCCCD, which voted on Measure J, includes a handful of precincts from LA County — 14 from La Habra Heights; one precinct each in Whittier and unincorporated La Mirada. (Chris did not mention that Measure I, from the Fullerton Joint Union High School District, also crosses county lines into La Habra Heights — although at 59% it’s too far ahead for the LA vote to matter. I think that we should face the facts: La Habra Heights should be ceded to Orange County. That’s what the Puente Hills decree.) So, the OC results are insufficient — which matters because La Habra Heights is relatively cooler, by about 4 points, to such measures. […]