OC Political

Next up in OC Political’s ongoing in-depth analysis of campaign finance figures is the race for the 73rd Assembly District seat being vacated by the termed out Diane Harkey, who is running for the Board of Equalization seat being vacated by the termed out Michelle Steel, who is running for the Second District Supervisor’s seat being vacated by the termed out John Moorlach, who is running for the 45th Congressional District seat being vacated by John Campbell, who voluntarily retired.  (That incredibly long sentence demonstrates a recurring theme in 2014.  Between AD-55, AD-73, AD-74, SD-34, CD-45, the Second Supervisorial District, the Fifth Supervisorial District, and possibly SD-36, there isn’t a single place in Orange County without a major competitive race at some point this year.)

Republican AD-73 Candidates: Jesse Petrilla, Anna Bryson, Bill Brough, Paul Glaab

There are four announced Republican candidates in AD-73: Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Jesse Petrilla, Dana Point Councilman Bill Brough, Capistrano Unified School District Trustee Anna Bryson, and former Laguna Niguel Councilman Paul Glaab.  One Democrat, Attorney and Irvine Valley College Professor Wendy Gabriella, has announced for the race.  Gabriella’s entry in the race virtually guarantees a Republican vs. Democrat general election, with the Republican winning handily and spares South County Republicans an AD-73 general election intraparty bloodbath.

For a walk down memory lane, here’s what I wrote six months ago after the last set of campaign finance numbers came out in AD-73.  On to the latest numbers…

Jesse Petrilla held on to his fundraising lead, but more notably, his massive lead from the previous fundraising period combined with his tight-fisted approach to spending has given him more cash-on-hand than all of his opponents combined.  He raised $69,230 the prior period and $35,609 this latest period, giving him a total raised of $104,839.  He spent a remarkably low $8,182 in both periods combined.  Once loans and unpaid bills are accounted for, Petrilla’s $96,593 cash on hand exceeds that of all of his opponents combined.

While not as dramatic as Petrilla, Bill Brough is steadily building his warchest and is spending less than he’s raising, thereby producing a net positive.  Brough raised $50,943, with $30,899 from the prior period and $20,044 this period while spending $16,345 this period (and $5,315 the prior period), leaving him with $29,270 cash on hand once loans are accounted for (Brough was the sole candidate who had no unpaid bills in AD-73.)

Anna Bryson spent slightly more than she took in during the latest reporting period in the second half of 2013, so she’s eaten into the money she raised in the prior reporting period from the first half of 2013.  Fees dominated her spending.  She paid a consulting firm, two fundraising firms, and a treasurer.  Bryson raised $85,143, with $53,052 the prior period and $32,091 in the latest period while spending $32,140 in this period (and $10,570 the prior period), leaving her with $37,433 cash on hand once loans and unpaid bills are accounted for.

Here at OC Political, we’ve railed repeatedly against the $100,000 paper tiger loans.  (These loans of $100,000 or less are frequently used by candidates to artificially inflate their warchest numbers.  While OC Political has many posts about those, this one is probably the seminal post on the issue.)  I will give Paul Glaab credit for actually spending his own money.  Glaab put his money where his mouth is, and donated $22,000 to his own campaign beyond the $100,000 loan he made to his campaign.  State campaign finance regulations put that $22,000 forever out of Glaab’s reach; it is nonrefundable, and he must spend it on the campaign.  Glaab was well aware of this regulation and properly reported the $22,000 as a contribution, not a loan.

Glaab secured the vast majority of slate mailers.  There are five major slate vendors, with Glaab grabbing three of them, including the two vendors who produce the most slate mailers.  Bryson grabbed one vendor.  It appears the fifth vendor is up for grabs still.

However, this massive spending has left Glaab as the only candidate in debt.

Glaab raised $13,337 this period and $14,749 the prior period, for a total of $28,086.  Adding his own $22,000, that brings that figure to $50,086, which is still the lowest amount raised of any of the four candidates.  He spent a negligible $470 the prior period and $49,549 in this latest period.  His aggregate $50,019 was the most spent of any of the four candidates.  With the least raised and most spent, Glaab has heavily relied on his self-funding.  Once unpaid bills and loans are accounted for, Glaab is $6,617 in debt.

Here’s the chart:

Campaign finance reports for January 1-June 30, 2013 were due last week.