OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Senator-Elect Moorlach’s Lead Shrinks by Insignificant 25 Votes – There Will Be No Run-Off

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 19, 2015

Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach
(R-Costa Mesa)

The Registrar of Voters has counted nearly all non-SB 29 ballots.  450 absentee ballots that arrived in the mail on Election Day have been counted, leaving only 100 left.  3,860 absentee ballots dropped off at the polls have been counted, leaving only 96 left.  All 181 Election Day paper ballots cast at the polls have been counted.  The 788 provisional ballots are still out there, so 4,481 ballots were counted in the fifth set of results, and only 984 of the non-SB 29 ballots remain.  2,440 SB 29 ballots arrived yesterday, and while there are still some SB 29 ballots that will arrive today and tomorrow, those will be fewer in number than 2,440.

The fifth results (yesterday’s count) show:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 36,393 50.3%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 31,870 44.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,490 3.4%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,589 2.2%

 

In the fifth results, Moorlach gained 2,185 votes, Wagner 1,883, Namazi 131, and Stewardson 221.  Looked at another way, Moorlach gained 2,185 votes (49.4%) while the other three won 2,235 (50.6%).  (61 undervotes/overvotes were counted yesterday, but they don’t count toward the total since they didn’t cast a valid vote.)

In the fourth results (final Election Night count), Moorlach was averting a run-off by 247 votes.  In the fifth results (yesterday’s count), Moorlach is averting a run-off by 222 votes.

So after counting 4,481 ballots yesterday, with 3,424 left, plus the small number of SB 29 ballots that will arrive today and tomorrow, it would take an unusual reversal of fortune for Moorlach for a run-off to occur.  In every iteration of ballot counts, Moorlach has dropped no lower than 49%.  For a run-off to occur, he’d have to drop to 44% or less in the remaining ballots – that’s not going to happen.

OC Political stands by our Election Night projection that there will be no run-off and John Moorlach will succeed Mimi Walters as State Senator for the 37th District.

With Moorlach’s victory, it appears the road to the California State Senate from Orange County runs through the Hall of Administration.  When was the last time an Orange County Supervisor lost a bid for the California State Senate? The last four Supervisors to run for Senate have been successful: Lou Correa in 2006, Patricia Bates and Janet Nguyen in 2014, and John Moorlach in 2015.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Senator Moorlach

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

This election is over.  There will be no run-off: former Orange County Supervisor John Moorlach is the California State Senator-Elect for the 37th District, rejoining his former colleagues of eight years, Supervisors-turned-Senators Janet Nguyen and Patricia Bates.

Moorlach wins with 50.4%.

The only remaining ballots are absentee ballots that were returned at the polls, SB 29 ballots (i.e. absentee ballots that will arrive in the mail by Friday), and provisional ballots.  It is highly unlikely there are a large enough number to make a difference.  Additionally, Moorlach seemed to gain ground with later ballots, so in all likelihood, the later ballots will only further cement Moorlach’s victory.

Here are the results after early absentees and all poll votes from 248 precincts were counted:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 34,208 50.4%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 29,987 44.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,359 3.5%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,368 2.0%
Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

California State Senator-Elect
John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

 

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , | 13 Comments »

Moorlach Might Win Out Right – Run-Off Looking Less Likely

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

The third results are in:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 171 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 31,856 49.9%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 28,449 44.6%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,266 3.6%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,218 1.9%

 

This third set adds another 89 precincts; combined with 82 precincts already reported, there are now 171 of 248 precincts reporting (69.0%).

Moorlach added 2,127 votes, Wagner added 1,734, Namazi added 88, and Stewardson added 134.

Each update has added another 0.1% to Moorlach.  There are 77 precincts remaining.  It is entirely possible the SB 29 ballots could determine whether there will be a May 19 run-off or if John Moorlach will be a Senator on Friday night.  If Moorlach wins, in a four-month span, the majority of the Orange County Board of Supervisors left the Board and joined the Senate together (Moorlach, Janet Nguyen, and Pat Bates).

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Needle Moves 0.1% – Moorlach Slightly Widens Lead

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

The second results are in:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 82 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 29,729 49.8%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 26,715 44.7%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,178 3.6%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,084 1.8%

The first results were all ballots received in the mail through today.  12% of all registered voters in SD-37 cast absentee ballots that were received in the mail by the Registrar as of today (absentee ballots can continue to arrive through Friday and still be counted).

This second set are the first 82 precincts of 248 (33.1%).

Moorlach added 861 votes, Wagner added 667, Namazi added 42, and Stewardson added 6.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Run-off? Too Close to Call: Moorlach 49.7%, Wagner 44.8%

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

The first results from early absentees are in:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 0 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 28,868 49.7%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 26,048 44.8%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,136 3.7%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,078 1.9%

 

Unfortunately, they’re inconclusive.  Early absentees show Moorlach ahead of Wagner by 2,820 votes (4.9%). Presumably, with the uptick in negative mail and robocalls, Moorlach should lose ground with poll voters. If voters are turned off by the negative mail and robocalls, it could benefit Namazi of all people because while Wagner went negative earlier, Moorlach went negative late as well.

I fear my prediction of a run-off may be true.

We should have more information from the Registrar’s 9:30 PM update.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Some Last Thoughts on the SD-37 Special Primary Election

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

All the mail I got for the SD-37 special election.

All the mail I got for the SD-37 special election.

I really hope that I’m wrong about the election going to a run-off on May 19.  I hope whoever comes in first tonight, whether it is Don Wagner or John Moorlach, gets more than 50% of the vote.  A run-off would be bad for both candidates, their campaigns, and the voters.  The candidates and their campaign staffs would have their lives continue to be on hold for another two months, and the voters would be subject to another endless barrage of campaign mail and robocalls (not to mention the $1.974 million price tag to taxpayers for the run-off).

I imagine my aberrant voter behavior contributed to my voter contact level: I’m a poll voter who requested an absentee ballot on the first day you could request one, but then held on to it and surrendered it at the polling place to vote at the poll.

I personally received 11 robocalls, with 10 of them in the last week. The calls were from (in order of receipt):

  • Congressman Ed Royce for Wagner
  • Naz Namazi for herself
  • Supervisor Todd Spitzer for Wagner
  • John Moorlach for himself
  • Supervisor Andrew Do for Wagner (in Vietnamese)
  • Naz Namazi for herself
  • Mayor Tom Tait for Moorlach
  • Senator Janet Nguyen for Wagner (in Vietnamese)
  • Shawn Steel for Wagner
  • Ed Royce for Wagner

Additionally, I was even had a voicemail from Don Wagner personally phone banking.

Mailwise, I received:

  • 5 mailers from Wagner (1 positive in Vietnamese, 2 mostly-positive comparison pieces, and 2 mostly-negative comparison pieces)
  • 2 mailers from Moorlach (1 mostly-positive comparison piece and 1 mostly-negative comparison piece)
  • 3 IEs from AOCDS and the statewide law enforcement union (1 anti-Moorlach piece, 1 pro-Wagner piece, and 1 that was both)
  • 1 IE from the California Homeowners Association (a comparison piece)

The reason this race went so negative so fast is fundamentally, there are no real differences between Wagner and Moorlach.  They will compile virtually identical voting records in the Senate.  When there are no real policy differences, all you can do is go negative.  As Jon Fleischman of the Flash Report put it at the beginning of this election, “The conservatives have already won.”  The only real difference is one of style and priorities, but they’d vote the same, and Martin Wisckol’s piece in the OC Register was spot on.

Usually, when we say there’s no difference between the candidates, it’s a complaint.  In this election, it’s a compliment.  We’ll know the results in a few minutes, and hopefully somebody breaks 50%.

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It’s Election Day in the 37th Senate District

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

Wagner, Moorlach, and Namazi

Business Owner/Assemblyman Donald P. Wagner, former Orange County Supervisor John M. W. Moorlach, and Naz Namazi

At long last, election day has arrived in the 37th Senate District.  Voters in the 37th Senate District can find their polling place here; polls close at 8:00 PM.  Absentee ballots can still be mailed to the Registrar of Voters today, thanks to SB 29 (Correa).

Voters will fill the seat to succeed Mimi Walters, who was elected to Congress, unless neither Don Wagner nor John Moorlach achieves 50% of the vote, in which case Naz Namazi will cost Orange County taxpayers $1.974 million by causing an unnecessary May 19 run-off election.

For those tracking, 54,700 ballots were received by the Registrar of Voters as of Friday.  Of those, 19,655 ballots have come from portions of SD-37 that are in the 2nd Supervisorial District while 24,667 have come from portions of SD-37 that are in AD-68.  10,378 came from portions of SD-37 that are in neither district.  Additionally, another 2,894 ballots arrived yesterday, but location breakdowns are not yet available for those.

Wagner has represented the 68th Assembly District since 2010 and was on the ballot there most recently in both June and November of 2014.  Moorlach represented the 2nd District Supervisorial from December 2006 until January 2015 and was on the ballot there most recently in June 2010.  Moorlach served in Countywide office from March 1995 to December 2006 and was most recently on a Countywide ballot in June 2006.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , | 9 Comments »

Is President Obama Really A Christian?

Posted by Craig P. Alexander on March 15, 2015

This question is asked (and often answered in the negative) a lot on social media when people are either trying to judge the President’s actions and decisions or sometimes when they are expressing their frustration with him.  My normal response to this type of question is I don’t know because I am not the judge of President Obama’s heart – that is God’s job not mine.

David French has written an insightful article about this subject in the National Review entitled (the title is a link to the article) “Is Obama Really A Christian?” I found his article well thought out, respectful and helpful in understanding this President’s decision making.  Is Mr. French correct – well only God knows!  I commend the article to you.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , | 2 Comments »

A Must Read Interview of Gov. Scott Walker

Posted by Craig P. Alexander on March 11, 2015

People who know me know I am a BIG fan of Governor Scott Walker.  I had the honor of meeting Gov. Walker last Monday night (3/9/15).

For so many reasons I admire him and hope he is our next President of the United States.  The biggest reason I like him is he and his fellow Republicans in Wisconsin actually won the Governor’s office and majorities in both state legislative bodies then actually did what they campaigned on instead of “playing it safe.”  In my opinion the reforms they passed have made Wisconsin a much better place to live, work and start a business.  Plus this Governor has taken on the special interests in his state (mostly the labor unions) three times and best them three times so he has proven he is up for a fight politically.

Jon Fleischman of the Flashreport.org did an excellent interview with which is at Breitbart California Interview: Governor Scott Walker.  In this interview Gov. Walker, in a few words, lays out why he and his fellow Republicans did what they did in Wisconsin right after they were elected rather than kicking the can down the road.  He did what I had hoped President George W. Bush would have done when he was elected with Republican majorities in the House and Senate.

While I know Washington, D.C. is not Wisconsin, I believe Gov. Walker, if he becomes President Walker, and has Republican majorities in Congress will demand and lead for change in the federal government towards limited government, more power to the states (and the people) and away from Washington and strengthen our position in the world.  In brief, it is obvious to me Gov. Walker believes in American Exceptionalism.

Kudos to Jon Fleischman for this interview and I highly commend it to you.

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SD-37 Surprise: Naz Namazi Does a Robocall

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 11, 2015

While going through voicemails yesterday, I was shocked to hear a robocall from Naz Namazi.  Considering she had done no noticeable campaigning, I did not expect a robocall one week before Election Day.

Not surprisingly, it’s the worst robocall I’ve ever heard.  Click below to listen to the call or read the transcript:

I’m Naz, N-A-Z, Naz, and I’m running against two men: a liar and a hypocrite.

I am a legal immigrant who’s lived in Orange County for 33 years and graduated from UC Irvine.

I’m Naz, and of course, I approved this message. VoteNaz.org. Vote honesty. Vote Naz.

First, she opens by name-calling against her opponents.  She calls them “a liar and a hypocrite,” but doesn’t bother even saying why they’re “a liar and a hypocrite.”

Next, she rushes through the script so quickly that it’s difficult to tell if she said, “I am a legal immigrant…” or “I am illegal immigrant…”  While readers of this blog are aware she is a legal immigrant, most people listening to the robocall are not.

Also, UC Irvine doesn’t exactly bring up warm fuzzy feelings right now, with their unsuccessful effort to ban the American flag.  If someone misheard “illegal immigrant” and then heard “UC Irvine” in the call, the call is quickly going south.

She doesn’t explain a single issue stance or give any reasons why anyone should vote for her.

Finally, Namazi fails to say who paid for this call, as required by FPPC regulations.  Oddly, she gives half the FEC statement required for candidates for federal office (“I’m Naz, and of course, I approved this message”).  Since she is running for state office, she does not need to say she approved this message.  For either type of message, she has to say, “Paid for by X” (I assume this call was “Paid for by Namazi for Senate 2015” but can’t rule out anyone else paying for it since she didn’t disclose.)

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: | 5 Comments »

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