Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 3, 2012
John Campbell also sent out this mailer to poll voters and unlike the Spitzer piece which was also good, this piece actually included the polling place for each voter in the piece. I am quite impressed with the piece and am hoping for a Campbell victory on Tuesday.
Here is the piece:
Posted in 45th Congressional District, Mail | Tagged: John Campbell | 1 Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 3, 2012
No on 29 had a really good week with polls showing that it will be very close on election day. They were in the mail twice and I guess their plain pieces are sort of growing on me.
The first mail piece:
Here is the second mailer:
Posted in California, Mail | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 3, 2012
Dianne Feinstein leads all 23 of her opponents combined. Feinstein has 42%, her opponents have a combined 34%, and 24% of likely voters remain undecided.
SurveyUSA appears to be the only poll in the state that has looked at the U.S. Senate race. The others probably thought it was a waste of time and money.
Under the headline, “Feinstein Opponent Unknowable Heading into Final Weekend Before Primary” the latest SurveyUSA poll was released on Thursday (after polling voters from Sunday through Tuesday) shows the following results for the Top 10 of the 24 candidates for U.S. Senate:
Feinstein, a Democrat, leads or ties for the lead in every subgroup. She’s in a three-way tie with Emken and Hughes among Republicans. Feinstein ties Hughes among very conservative voters. She leads in every other subgroup, even TEA Party Members, conservatives, pro-life voters, and evangelical Christians.
Emken has the best shot of capturing the undecided vote to come in a distant second behind Feinstein since Emken’s endorsement by the California Republican Party is listed in voters’ sample ballots, the only thing that is mailed to every single registered voter in the state.
Whoever comes in second has a very tall order to topple California’s 20-year Senator.
Four hypothetical general election matchups were polled:
Once it’s narrowed down to two candidates, each of the four Republicans lead Feinstein in the following subgroups: Republicans, TEA Party members, very conservative voters, conservative voters, and pro-life voters. Emken leads Feinstein in the Central Valley and splits the evangelical Christian vote evenly with Feinstein. Ramirez leads Feinstein in the evangelical Christian vote.
The only other poll on California’s U.S. Senate race was SurveyUSA’s April 3 poll (after polling voters March 29-April 2) showed the following as the top 10 candidates:
At that time, Feinstein led every subgroup, even Republicans and very conservative voters. Her massive lead has decreased, but it’s such a massive lead, she is one of the safer incumbents in the country.
It’s still a free-for-all to determine who will come in second to advance to November against Feinstein, but suffice it to say, on June 5, Feinstein’s team will only be watching her election results to see if she breaks 50%.
Posted in California | Tagged: Al Ramirez, Dan Hughes, David Levitt, Diane Stewart, Dianne Feinstein, Donald Krampe, Elizabeth Emken, Gail Lightfoot, John Boruff, Orly Taitz, Rick Williams, Robert Lauten | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 3, 2012
The latest poll from Survey USA, released on Thursday, shows Proposition 29 (tobacco tax) leading by 42%-38% margin, with 20% undecided. The poll measured likely voters from May 27-29.
The latest Field Poll, also released on Thursday, shows Prop 29 leading by a 50%-42% margin, with 8% undecided. The poll measured likely voters from May 21-29.
Here’s a comparison of polling on Proposition 29 (tobacco tax) over time:
| Dates | Poll | Yes | No | Spread |
| 5/27-5/29 | SurveyUSA | 42% | 38% | Yes +4% |
| 5/21-5/29 | Field | 50% | 42% | Yes +8% |
| 5/17-5/21 | USC/LAT | 62% | 33% | Yes +29% |
| 5/14-5/20 | PPIC | 53% | 42% | Yes +11% |
| 3/14-3/19 | USC/LAT | 68% | 29% | Yes +39% |
| 2/21-2/28 | PPIC | 67% | 30% | Yes +37% |
Compensating for variation in polls, note that the PPIC poll found Prop 29 declined from a 37% lead to an 11% lead while the USC/LA Times poll found Prop 29 declined from a 39% lead to a 29% lead.
The trend is clear. A supermajority of Californians supported Prop 29 before the campaigns started, but once the campaign came underway, the No on 29 campaign outspent Yes on 29 by a 4-1 margin, allowing the Anti-Prop 29 message to make enormous inroads, cutting the Pro-Prop 29 into a single digit lead, but will the ad blitz be enough to push Prop 29 to defeat? The anti-Prop 29 side’s biggest enemy may be time: absentee voters cast their ballots while Prop 29 was leading, and the polling trend seems to point to poll voters splitting evenly or narrowly opposing Prop 29, leaving absentee voters to save the day for Prop 29, which may narrowly pass.
Newspaper endorsements have been unexpectedly evenly split in California, with 14 major papers endorsing Prop 29 and 14 major papers opposing Prop 29. Surprisingly, both of OC’s major papers: the OC Register and the LA Times both oppose Prop 29. How often do those two papers’ editorial boards agree?
SurveyUSA found that the following subgroups support Prop 29:
SurveyUSA found that the following subgroups oppose Prop 29:
The Field Poll found that the following subgroups support Prop 29:
The Field Poll found that the following subgroups oppose Prop 29:
PPIC found that the following subgroups support Prop 29:
PPIC found that the following subgroups oppose Prop 29:
Posted in California | Tagged: Field Poll, PPIC Poll, Proposition 29, SurveyUSA, USC/LA Times Poll | 1 Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 3, 2012
Todd Spitzer sent out a piece to poll voters encouraging them to get out and vote on election day. I believe that this piece could have been a bit better and you will see why in a couple of hours when I post the John Campbell mailer that also arrived. Spitzer appears to have this election in the bag, but it never hurts to be sure of yourself through mailing to a broad universe.
Here is the piece:
Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, Mail | Tagged: Todd Spitzer | 2 Comments »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 2, 2012
CRA has really stepped up their game this year thanks to OC Political author and CRA State Vice-President Craig Alexander. Take a look at this awesome slate mailer that went out throughout Orange County to voters. It is formatted like a newspaper with a list of endorsements and some advertisements.
Posted in Mail | Tagged: CRA | 9 Comments »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 2, 2012
It appears that Travis Allen is not the only one in the mail. Long Pham has also sent out a mailer to AD 72 voters:
Posted in 72nd Assembly District, Mail | Tagged: Long Pham | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 2, 2012
Instead of the normal newsletters that we run on weekends at OC Political we thought that we would get you all caught up on the mail that has gone out over the past week.
This hit piece came across the wire yesterday from a reader. Travis Allen has put down a piece of mail that makes Troy Edgar look really bad. Take a look at the piece posted below:
Posted in 72nd Assembly District, Mail | Tagged: Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | 2 Comments »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 2, 2012
The latest Field Poll released on Thursday shows Proposition 28 (term limits) leading 50%-28%, with 22% undecided. The poll measured likely voters from May 21-29.
Here’s a comparison of polling on Proposition 28 (term limits) over time:
| Dates | Poll | Yes | No | Spread |
| 5/21-5/29 | Field | 50% | 28% | Yes +22% |
| 5/17-5/21 | USC/LAT | 49% | 33% | Yes +16% |
| 5/14-5/20 | PPIC | 62% | 29% | Yes +33% |
| 3/14-3/19 | USC/LAT | 51% | 32% | Yes +19% |
| 2/21-2/28 | PPIC | 68% | 24% | Yes +44% |
Compensating for variation in polls, note that the PPIC poll found Prop 28 declined from a 44% lead to a 33% lead while the USC/LA Times poll found Prop 28 declined from 19% to 16%.
The PPIC poll found that Prop 28 leads in every subgroup they had: Republicans (63%-28%), Democrats (60%-31%), Independents [no party preference] (66%-22%), conservatives (64%-26%), moderates (66%-26%), liberals (55%-36%), college graduates (56%-35%), people with some college education (66%-25%), and people with a high school education or less (65%-24%).
The USC/LA Times poll also found that Prop 28 leads in almost every subgroup they had: Republicans (46%-36%), Democrats (51%-30%), decline-to-state [no party preference/independents] 52%-35%), third party (35%-32%), whites (50%-32%), Latinos (53%-31%), minorities overall (50%-31%), people with children (47%-39%), people without children (50%-30%), people aged 30-39 (43%-31%), people aged 40-49 (57%-29%), people aged 50-64 (53%-31%), and people over 64 (52%-29%).
The USC/LA Times poll found that black voters actually oppose Prop 28 by a 45%-34% margin, and people aged 18-29 oppose Prop 28 by a 42%-37% margin.
The Field Poll also found that Prop 28 leads in every subgroup they had: Republicans (50%-32%), Democrats (50%-25%), no party preference [independent]/other (51%-30%), conservatives (45%-32%), moderates (59%-22%), liberals (46%-33%), LA County (46%-29%), Southern California outside LA County (49%-31%), San Francisco Bay Area (52%-30%), Northern California outside the Bay Area (55%-23%), men (53%-32%), women (48%-25%), people aged 18-39 (50%-23%), people aged 40-64 (50%-29%), people 65 and older (50%-31%), precinct [poll] voters (48%-28%), and mail ballot [absentee] voters (52%-29%).
Posted in California | Tagged: Field Poll, PPIC Poll, Proposition 28, USC/LA Times Poll | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on June 2, 2012
This came across the wire earlier this week from the office of Congressman John Campbell:
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Episode VII – Education: In 1979, President Jimmy Carter created the Federal Department of Education. He did it to make the quality of education in this country better. This year, that department will have an administrative budget of $69 billion. That does not include the roughly $19 billion in federal dollars we will spend on education entitlements like Pell Grants and student loans.
The question is simple: Is American education better now than it was in 1979? Has spending trillions of federal dollars over the last 33 years led to America’s students consistently receiving a superior level of education?
The answer is painfully obvious. NO! So, why are we still trying to do what has failed for over 30 years expecting to achieve positive results?!
Sorry. I’ll calm down now. I have included education in this “Fix It” series on how to jump start two new decades of American hegemony, growth and prosperity because, like infrastructure, a strong education system is a prerequisite to growth and prosperity. So then, what is the state of education in America? In order to analyze our system, we have to break education into two distinct categories which are in very different places right now: K-12 education and higher education.
We already have the finest higher education system in the world, bar none. This is so for a number of reasons. Amongst them is that we have many private, public and for-profit colleges competing with one another in the marketplace. There is relatively little government interference in this category, which is a significant part of its success. Unfortunately, President Obama recently indicated that he would like the government to regulate what a unit of higher education is and how much it can cost. This is the President’s road map to screw up a part of America that is actually working. Unbelievable!
Higher education is too expensive. But, that is not because the government has not interfered enough. It is because it has interfered too much. Over the last 30 years, the inflation rate on higher education tuition has been greater than any other part of the economy. Health care is second. The increases in both dwarf the inflation rate for energy or housing or food. And, do you notice something in common with higher ed and health care? Both have a lot of government subsidies. The increases in college tuition have largely corresponded with the increases in federal assistance. When I was an undergrad at UCLA in the mid-1970s, my tuition (I remember well) was $625.50 per year. Today, in-state tuition at UCLA is $12,686 per year. That means it has increased more than 20 times over that time period. Gas and housing have also gone up over that period, but not by 2000%. And, that is in spite of increases in California tax rates since then. Now, all this being said, the state of higher education could be much worse. But, if we are concerned about the cost, we should be looking at whether federal subsidies have caused higher tuitions, rather than helped reduced them.
Unfortunately, our K-12 system is in a different place. We do NOT have the finest primary and secondary education system in the world. And, we do NOT have many private, public and for-profit K-12 schools competing in the marketplace. There are roughly 98,700 public schools in the United States. There are about 33,700 private ones. The details of fixing K-12 education are way beyond the scope of this series. But, there’s one thing I know: We can’t fix 98,700 schools from Washington, DC. We can’t even fix California schools from Sacramento. Parents, teachers and administrators closer to the problem should have more freedom and flexibility to respond to their own unique needs.
So, get rid of the Department of Education. Save half the money the department currently costs and give the other half directly to the states and local school districts. However, most importantly, give them the flexibility to create competition and fix their problems. They will do it.
Until next time, I remain respectfully,
Congressman John Campbell
Member of Congress
Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: John Campbell | Leave a Comment »
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