This came over the wire from Assemblyman Don Wagner’s office on Thursday…
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Don Wagner: Budget Fact Check – Has Proposition 25 Produced Balanced Budgets for California?
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on June 23, 2012
Posted in 68th Assembly District | Tagged: Don Wagner, Proposition 25 | 1 Comment »
Breaking News: AP Says Prop 29 Failed
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 22, 2012
Weeks after the election, the Associated Press has confirmed that Prop 29 has been defeated in a narrow race.
The Secretary of State’s unofficial count shows Prop 29 failed by less than 2 votes per precinct.
Posted in California | Tagged: Proposition 29 | Leave a Comment »
AD-74’s Surprise Split: Mansoor Wins Three Cities, Rush Wins Other Three Cities, Daigle Second in Hometown But Third in All Other Cities
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 22, 2012
Apologies for the blogcation this week. We forgot to tell readers we would be taking time off for Day of the Independent Hungary on June 19 and Argentinian Flag Day on June 20. We were going to celebrate Canadian National Aboriginal Day and Prince William’s 30th birthday on June 21, but then Thomas Gordon blogged about Barack Obama’s assertion of executive privilege à la Richard Nixon. Now back to the show…
On Monday, I blogged the city-by-city breakdown in AD-72, which showed Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) and Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) the top two in four cities, OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley) and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove) the top two in two cities, and Pham and Edgar the top two in Garden Grove.
Today, we look at the surprise result in AD-74.
First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:
| California State Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R) | 33,319 | 43.5% |
| Newport Beach Businessman Robert Rush (D) | 25,120 | 32.8% |
| Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R) | 18,207 | 23.8% |
So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the six cities of AD-74: Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Costa Mesa, Laguna Woods, and Laguna Beach.
74th Assembly District results in each city
(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics. Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-74. Huntington Beach is divided nearly 50/50 between AD-72 and AD-74 while 2/3 of Irvine is in AD-74, with 1/3 of Irvine in AD-68.)
In each city, the candidate with the larger head came in first while the candidate with the smaller head came in second:
- Rush came in first with Mansoor second in Irvine, Laguna Woods, and Laguna Beach.
- Mansoor came in first with Rush second in Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa.
- Mansoor came in first with Daigle second in Newport Beach.
These results were consistent in all six cities across both absentee and poll voters.
Here’s the percentage breakdown by city, with the winner’s percentage in bold and the runner-up in italics:
| Mansoor | Rush | Daigle | |
| Costa Mesa | 49.7% | 32.1% | 18.1% |
| Huntington Beach | 46.2% | 29.8% | 24.0% |
| Irvine | 37.8% | 39.1% | 23.1% |
| Laguna Beach | 32.0% | 46.6% | 21.4% |
| Laguna Woods | 33.8% | 45.4% | 20.7% |
| Newport Beach | 48.2% | 22.1% | 29.7% |
Now here’s that list of cities by number of voters in AD-74:
- Newport Beach: Mansoor
- Huntington Beach: Mansoor
- Irvine: Rush
- Costa Mesa: Mansoor
- Laguna Woods: Rush
- Laguna Beach: Rush
For our visual learners:
The results show that despite enormous spending on behalf of Daigle by Berkshire Hathaway Heir and Santa Clara County Republican Party Chairman Charles Munger, Jr. (as we blogged about here, here, and here), which eventually totaled well over half a million dollars ($579,040 to be exact), plus another $89,687 in independent expenditures from labor unions, the power of incumbency and grassroots activists enabled Mansoor to overcome the hundreds of thousands of dollars in Bay Area/labor union money spent on behalf of Daigle. Similarly, the power of party label enabled Rush to overcome the hundreds of thousands of dollars in Bay Area/labor union money spent on behalf of Daigle (much like the power of party label enabled Republican Jose “Joe” Moreno [not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno] to overcome the $246,761 in labor union money spent on behalf of Democrat Julio Perez).
And here’s a quick video courtesy of OC Political Reader and Lake Forest City Council Candidate Dwight Robinson that boils the AD-74 result into a nutshell:
Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: Allan Mansoor, Argentinian Flag Day, Barack Obama, Charles Munger Jr., Day of the Independent Hungary, Duke of Cambridge, Dwight Robinson, Joe Dovinh, Jose Moreno, Julio Perez, Leslie Daigle, Long Pham, National Aboriginal Day, Prince William, Richard Nixon, Robert Rush, Thomas Anthony Gordon, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | 3 Comments »
The cover up is often worse than the crime
Posted by Thomas Gordon on June 21, 2012
After the recent hearings and prior to the vote on whether to charge Attorney General Eric Holder with Contempt of Congress for withholding documents that had been under subpoeana for well over a year, the President invoked Executive Privilege over those documents.
A US Border Agent was murdered as were hundreds of Mexican citizens as the result of actions taken at a level that appears to originate from the very top, otherwise this Executive Privilege decree would not have been invoked.
Executive Privilege did not work during Watergate, but it may work here because this lawless president simply ignores the other branches of government when they displease him.
Then Senator Obama appeared on Larry King Live in 2007 where he stated “Theres been a tendency on the part of this administration to try to hide behind executive privilege every time there’s something a little shaky that’s taken place”
One wonders what Barack Obama knows and when he knew it…….
Posted in National | Tagged: Barack Obama, Brian Terry, Fast and Furious | 15 Comments »
Live Blogging: Central Committee Meeting 6-18-2012
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 18, 2012
7:02 PM- Nguyen is driving the OC Politicalmobile on our way to the meeting which has been moved to Skosh Monahans in Costa Mesa.
7:17 PM- We have arrived at the meeting a few minutes late.
7:19 PM- They are now in the process of appointing a financial review committee which will consist of a member from each Assembly District Committee.
7:23 PM- I just learned from fellow OC Political blogger Craig Alexander that Bill Dunlap has been appointed to replace the seat held by former party chairman Tom Fuentes.
7:27 PM- John Warner voted in as the new 1st Vice Chairman.
7:30 PM- Speech is being given by John Warner thanking members and talking about working together to move forward.
7:32 PM- John Warner now giving his first report as 1st Vice Chair, talking about Flag Day. Mary Young now giving her report on voter registration efforts.
7:34 PM- Bills are all paid and no ethics committee complaints during the June election cycle and meeting appears to be coming to a close.
Posted in Republican Central Committee | Leave a Comment »
John Warner Replaces Deborah Pauly as First Vice Chair of the OCGOP
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 18, 2012
In a swift three-minute election, John Warner was elected without an opponent (though with some “No” votes) to replace Deborah Pauly who was removed in a lengthy and controversial Central Committee meeting in May.
Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Deborah Pauly, John Warner | 1 Comment »
Live from Central Committee: Replacing Deborah Pauly
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 18, 2012
At 7:24 PM, Orange Councilman Fred Whitaker has nominated John Warner for First Vice Chair to replace Deborah Pauly.
At 7:25 PM, Tim Whitacre has moved to table the election.
At 7:26 PM, the motion to table is defeated.
At 7:27 PM, Warner is approved with a supermajority voice vote.
Posted in Republican Central Committee | 1 Comment »
Obama-Bad with Leaks
Posted by Thomas Gordon on June 18, 2012
Leak, Leaks and More Leaks- He just can’t fix any of them
Posted in National | Leave a Comment »
AD-72’s Distinct Split: Edgar & Allen Top Two in Four Cities, Pham & Dovinh Top Two in Two Cities
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 18, 2012
With the Primary Election certified, we now have clear breakdowns available in every race in the county. First up is the 72nd Assembly District, which had the most distinct divisions in the different parts of the district.
First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:
| Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar (R) | 18,060 | 28.0% |
| Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen (R) | 12,851 | 19.9% |
| Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D) | 12,432 | 19.3% |
| County Board of Education Trustee Long Pham (R) | 12,409 | 19.2% |
| Garden Grove Retiree Albert Ayala (D) | 8,816 | 13.7% |
So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the nine major parts of AD-72 (the seven cities of Fountain Valley, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Los Alamitos, Santa Ana, Seal Beach, and Westminster along with the two major unincorporated areas of Midway City and Rossmoor).
72nd Assembly District results in each city and major unincorporated area
(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics. Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-72. Huntington Beach is divided nearly 50/50 between AD-72 and AD-74. A sliver of Santa Ana and the bulk of Garden Grove are in AD-72 while the bulk of Santa Ana and a sliver of Garden Grove are in AD-69.)
In each city, the candidate with the larger head came in first while the candidate with the smaller head came in second:
- Edgar came in first with Allen second in Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, Seal Beach, Los Alamitos, and Rossmoor.
- Pham came in first with Dovinh second in Westminster, Santa Ana, and Midway City.
- Pham came in first with Edgar second in Garden Grove.
Here’s their vote totals broken down visually by city:
Seal Beach single-handedly caused Edgar vs. Allen. Without them, it would have been Edgar vs. Pham. Same story with Huntington Beach.
Fountain Valley single-handedly caused the all-Republican matchup. Without them, it would have been Edgar vs. Dovinh.
Here’s how each candidate performed in the various parts of the district:
- Edgar came in first or third in every part of the district, except for a second-place finish in Garden Grove and a fourth-place finish in Santa Ana.
- Pham came in first or fifth in every part of the district, except for a third-place finish in his home of Fountain Valley.
- Dovinh came in second or third in every part of the district, except for a fourth-place finish in Fountain Valley.
- Allen came in second or fourth in every part of the district, except for a fifth-place finish in Santa Ana.
- Ayala came in fourth or fifth in every part of the district, except for a third-place finish in Santa Ana.
Here’s a chart showing how the candidates did in each city and major unincorporated area:
| Huntington Beach Los Alamitos Seal Beach Rossmoor |
Fountain Valley | Westminster Midway City |
Santa Ana | Garden Grove |
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Here are the areas sorted by voter turnout:
- Seal Beach: 36.2%
- Rossmoor: 34.1%
- Fountain Valley: 26.9%
- Los Alamitos: 25.5%
- Huntington Beach: 24.8%
- Westminster: 23.5%
- Garden Grove: 21.7%
- Midway City: 19.9%
- Santa Ana: 18.1%
Now let’s see that voter turnout list again, but with the top two candidates in each city noted:
- Seal Beach: Edgar, Allen
- Rossmoor: Edgar, Allen
- Fountain Valley: Edgar, Allen
- Los Alamitos: Edgar, Allen
- Huntington Beach: Edgar, Allen
- Westminster: Pham, Dovinh
- Garden Grove: Pham, Edgar
- Midway City: Pham, Dovinh
- Santa Ana: Pham, Dovinh
Had voter turnout been just a tad higher in Little Saigon or a tad lower in the non-Little Saigon parts of AD-72, Edgar would be facing off against fellow Republican Pham or Democrat Dovinh.
Looking at Pham’s first-or-fifth performance everywhere (outside of his home of Fountain Valley), it’s clear that Team Pham focused too much energy on Little Saigon. Just a little bit more mail, walkers, or other effort in the non-Little Saigon areas of AD-72 would have been just enough to get him that 0.7% he needed to make the run-off against Edgar.
67% of the voters cast their ballots for the three Republicans while 33% cast their ballots for the two Democrats. The majority of primary election voters (52.2%) cast their ballots for Dovinh, Pham, or Ayala. Edgar and Allen combined to win 47.9% of the vote.
The path to victory for the two November contenders goes through Little Saigon, the Democrats, and the independents. Between Edgar and Allen, whoever can get these large blocs of voters to swing behind them will be the next Assemblyman from the 72nd District.
Posted in 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: Albert Ayala, Joe Dovinh, Long Pham, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | 3 Comments »
Shawn Nelson’s Fourth District Update
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on June 17, 2012
This came over the wire from Supervisor Shawn Nelson’s office on Friday…
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Posted in 4th Supervisorial District | Tagged: Diane Harkey, John Moorlach, Sara Catz, Shawn Nelson, Tom Umberg | Leave a Comment »
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