This came over the wire from Assemblyman Don Wagner’s office on Monday…
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Archive for the ‘State Assembly’ Category
Assemblymember Wagner’s June E-Newsletter
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on June 30, 2012
Posted in 68th Assembly District | Tagged: Don Wagner, Keenan Kilpatrick | Leave a Comment »
AD-69: Anaheim Saved Republican Moreno, Pushed Democrat Perez into Third, Averting Dem vs. Dem Slugfest in November
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 28, 2012
Last week, I blogged two city-by-city breakdowns of the results in two Assembly races.
First up was AD-72, which showed Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) and Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) the top two in four cities, OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley) and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove) the top two in two cities, and Pham and Edgar the top two in Garden Grove.
Next up was AD-74, which showed Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R-Costa Mesa) and Businessman Robert Rush (D-Newport Beach) alternating as first and second place in each city in the district, with the sole exception being Newport Beach, where Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R-Newport Beach) slipped in ahead of Rush but behind Mansoor.
Up today is the final OC Assembly race that featured more than two candidates: AD-69. First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:
| Orange County Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly (D) | 10,939 | 39.2% |
| Eligibility Technician Jose “Joe” Moreno (R) | 5,980 | 21.4% |
| Union Leader Julio Perez (D) | 5,738 | 20.6% |
| Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D) | 4,651 | 16.7% |
| Businessman Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D) | 605 | 2.2% |
So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the four cities of AD-69: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Garden Grove, and Orange.
(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics. Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-69. The bulk of Santa Ana and a sliver of Garden Grove are in AD-69 while a sliver of Santa Ana and the bulk of Garden Grove are in AD-72. A sliver of Orange is in AD-69 but the bulk of it is in AD-68. Anaheim is divided into nearly even thirds, with the western 1/3 in AD-65, the central 1/3 in AD-69, and the eastern 1/3 in AD-68.)
Daly was consistently first in each city while Barragan was consistently fifth. Moreno, Perez, and Martinez swapped around for the second, third, and fourth place positions. The humongous Daly head is indicative of his first place finish in all four cities; taking his head out of the individual cities allows us to more closely examine second and third place, which actually differed in the four cities. In each individual city, the candidate with the larger head came in second while the candidate with the smaller head came in third:
- Moreno came in second with Perez third in Anaheim and Garden Grove.
- Perez came in second with Martinez third in Santa Ana.
- Moreno came in second with Martinez third in Orange.
Here’s their vote totals broken down visually by city:
Since Daly came in first by such a large margin (indeed, Daly’s Santa Ana total nearly bested everyone else’s districtwide total) and Barragan fell to fifth by such a large margin (Daly’s Garden Grove total outpaced Barragan’s districtwide total), let’s take a closer look with just Moreno, Perez, and Martinez, who were closer together in the results:
It’s clear that without Anaheim, Perez would have made it into the top two and on to November, rather than Moreno. Moreno’s final vote total was 5,980 while Perez’s was 5,738. Without Anaheim, Moreno would have had 4,105 while Perez would have had 4,308. (Anaheim gave Moreno 1,875 votes and Perez 1,430 votes, a 445-vote margin). Perez lost districtwide to Moreno by 242 votes; without Anaheim, Moreno would have lost to Perez by 203 votes.
Anaheim was a crucial stronghold for Moreno, as he came in fourth in Santa Ana but second in Anaheim.
However, with so few cities in AD-69, and Santa Ana such a strong majority of that district (59% of registered voters in AD-69 live in Santa Ana, and 60% of ballots cast in AD-69 were from Santa Ana), it would be more useful to break this result down into regions smaller than cities. Luckily for this purpose, the City of Santa Ana has Council wards.
Here, the larger head came in first while the smaller head came in second:
- Daly came in first with Moreno second in Wards 3 and 6.
- Perez came in first with Daly second in Wards 1 and 4.
- Perez came in first with Martinez second in Wards 2 and 5 (Martinez represents Ward 2 on the Santa Ana City Council, by the way).
Despite the fact that Perez won four wards and Daly only won two, Daly actually won Santa Ana by a 10% margin. How? Well, 48% of registered voters in Santa Ana live in the two wards that Daly won: Wards 3 and 6. 49% of Santa Anans who voted in the AD-69 race live in Wards 3 and 6, so those two wards did not have disproportionate voter turnout – they just have a disproportionate share of the voters to begin with. A picture is worth a thousand words, so…
The overwhelming majority of Daly and Moreno’s votes in Santa Ana came from Wards 3 and 6, with 59% of Daly’s Santa Ana votes and 66% of Moreno’s Santa Ana votes coming from those two wards. By contrast, 29% of Perez’s Santa Ana votes and 38% of Martinez’s Santa Ana votes came from those two wards. Here’s each candidate’s vote totals broken down visually by ward:
Once again, due to Daly’s landslide first-place finish and Barragan’s distant fifth-place finish, let’s take a closer look with just Moreno, Perez, and Martinez, who were closer together in the results:
Perez’s vote totals were fairly evenly spread out across the wards, Martinez got a bump from Ward 3, but Moreno’s performance was very strong in Wards 3 and 6 and disastrous in Wards 2, 4, and 5.
Had Perez done a stronger push in Anaheim or a three-prong strategy in Anaheim, Santa Ana’s Ward 3, and Santa Ana’s Ward 6, there’d be a Democrat vs. Democrat intraparty battle in AD-69 in November between business-backed Tom Daly and union-backed Julio Perez.
Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: Albert Ayala, Allan Mansoor, Francisco Barragan, Joe Dovinh, Jose Moreno, Julio Perez, Leslie Daigle, Long Pham, Michele Martinez, Paco Barragan, Robert Rush, Santa Ana Wards, Tom Daly, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | 3 Comments »
Don Wagner: Budget Fact Check – Has Proposition 25 Produced Balanced Budgets for California?
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on June 23, 2012
This came over the wire from Assemblyman Don Wagner’s office on Thursday…
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Posted in 68th Assembly District | Tagged: Don Wagner, Proposition 25 | 1 Comment »
AD-74’s Surprise Split: Mansoor Wins Three Cities, Rush Wins Other Three Cities, Daigle Second in Hometown But Third in All Other Cities
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 22, 2012
Apologies for the blogcation this week. We forgot to tell readers we would be taking time off for Day of the Independent Hungary on June 19 and Argentinian Flag Day on June 20. We were going to celebrate Canadian National Aboriginal Day and Prince William’s 30th birthday on June 21, but then Thomas Gordon blogged about Barack Obama’s assertion of executive privilege à la Richard Nixon. Now back to the show…
On Monday, I blogged the city-by-city breakdown in AD-72, which showed Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) and Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) the top two in four cities, OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley) and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove) the top two in two cities, and Pham and Edgar the top two in Garden Grove.
Today, we look at the surprise result in AD-74.
First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:
| California State Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R) | 33,319 | 43.5% |
| Newport Beach Businessman Robert Rush (D) | 25,120 | 32.8% |
| Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R) | 18,207 | 23.8% |
So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the six cities of AD-74: Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Costa Mesa, Laguna Woods, and Laguna Beach.
74th Assembly District results in each city
(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics. Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-74. Huntington Beach is divided nearly 50/50 between AD-72 and AD-74 while 2/3 of Irvine is in AD-74, with 1/3 of Irvine in AD-68.)
In each city, the candidate with the larger head came in first while the candidate with the smaller head came in second:
- Rush came in first with Mansoor second in Irvine, Laguna Woods, and Laguna Beach.
- Mansoor came in first with Rush second in Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa.
- Mansoor came in first with Daigle second in Newport Beach.
These results were consistent in all six cities across both absentee and poll voters.
Here’s the percentage breakdown by city, with the winner’s percentage in bold and the runner-up in italics:
| Mansoor | Rush | Daigle | |
| Costa Mesa | 49.7% | 32.1% | 18.1% |
| Huntington Beach | 46.2% | 29.8% | 24.0% |
| Irvine | 37.8% | 39.1% | 23.1% |
| Laguna Beach | 32.0% | 46.6% | 21.4% |
| Laguna Woods | 33.8% | 45.4% | 20.7% |
| Newport Beach | 48.2% | 22.1% | 29.7% |
Now here’s that list of cities by number of voters in AD-74:
- Newport Beach: Mansoor
- Huntington Beach: Mansoor
- Irvine: Rush
- Costa Mesa: Mansoor
- Laguna Woods: Rush
- Laguna Beach: Rush
For our visual learners:
The results show that despite enormous spending on behalf of Daigle by Berkshire Hathaway Heir and Santa Clara County Republican Party Chairman Charles Munger, Jr. (as we blogged about here, here, and here), which eventually totaled well over half a million dollars ($579,040 to be exact), plus another $89,687 in independent expenditures from labor unions, the power of incumbency and grassroots activists enabled Mansoor to overcome the hundreds of thousands of dollars in Bay Area/labor union money spent on behalf of Daigle. Similarly, the power of party label enabled Rush to overcome the hundreds of thousands of dollars in Bay Area/labor union money spent on behalf of Daigle (much like the power of party label enabled Republican Jose “Joe” Moreno [not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno] to overcome the $246,761 in labor union money spent on behalf of Democrat Julio Perez).
And here’s a quick video courtesy of OC Political Reader and Lake Forest City Council Candidate Dwight Robinson that boils the AD-74 result into a nutshell:
Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: Allan Mansoor, Argentinian Flag Day, Barack Obama, Charles Munger Jr., Day of the Independent Hungary, Duke of Cambridge, Dwight Robinson, Joe Dovinh, Jose Moreno, Julio Perez, Leslie Daigle, Long Pham, National Aboriginal Day, Prince William, Richard Nixon, Robert Rush, Thomas Anthony Gordon, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | 3 Comments »
AD-72’s Distinct Split: Edgar & Allen Top Two in Four Cities, Pham & Dovinh Top Two in Two Cities
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 18, 2012
With the Primary Election certified, we now have clear breakdowns available in every race in the county. First up is the 72nd Assembly District, which had the most distinct divisions in the different parts of the district.
First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:
| Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar (R) | 18,060 | 28.0% |
| Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen (R) | 12,851 | 19.9% |
| Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D) | 12,432 | 19.3% |
| County Board of Education Trustee Long Pham (R) | 12,409 | 19.2% |
| Garden Grove Retiree Albert Ayala (D) | 8,816 | 13.7% |
So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the nine major parts of AD-72 (the seven cities of Fountain Valley, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Los Alamitos, Santa Ana, Seal Beach, and Westminster along with the two major unincorporated areas of Midway City and Rossmoor).
72nd Assembly District results in each city and major unincorporated area
(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics. Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-72. Huntington Beach is divided nearly 50/50 between AD-72 and AD-74. A sliver of Santa Ana and the bulk of Garden Grove are in AD-72 while the bulk of Santa Ana and a sliver of Garden Grove are in AD-69.)
In each city, the candidate with the larger head came in first while the candidate with the smaller head came in second:
- Edgar came in first with Allen second in Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, Seal Beach, Los Alamitos, and Rossmoor.
- Pham came in first with Dovinh second in Westminster, Santa Ana, and Midway City.
- Pham came in first with Edgar second in Garden Grove.
Here’s their vote totals broken down visually by city:
Seal Beach single-handedly caused Edgar vs. Allen. Without them, it would have been Edgar vs. Pham. Same story with Huntington Beach.
Fountain Valley single-handedly caused the all-Republican matchup. Without them, it would have been Edgar vs. Dovinh.
Here’s how each candidate performed in the various parts of the district:
- Edgar came in first or third in every part of the district, except for a second-place finish in Garden Grove and a fourth-place finish in Santa Ana.
- Pham came in first or fifth in every part of the district, except for a third-place finish in his home of Fountain Valley.
- Dovinh came in second or third in every part of the district, except for a fourth-place finish in Fountain Valley.
- Allen came in second or fourth in every part of the district, except for a fifth-place finish in Santa Ana.
- Ayala came in fourth or fifth in every part of the district, except for a third-place finish in Santa Ana.
Here’s a chart showing how the candidates did in each city and major unincorporated area:
| Huntington Beach Los Alamitos Seal Beach Rossmoor |
Fountain Valley | Westminster Midway City |
Santa Ana | Garden Grove |
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Here are the areas sorted by voter turnout:
- Seal Beach: 36.2%
- Rossmoor: 34.1%
- Fountain Valley: 26.9%
- Los Alamitos: 25.5%
- Huntington Beach: 24.8%
- Westminster: 23.5%
- Garden Grove: 21.7%
- Midway City: 19.9%
- Santa Ana: 18.1%
Now let’s see that voter turnout list again, but with the top two candidates in each city noted:
- Seal Beach: Edgar, Allen
- Rossmoor: Edgar, Allen
- Fountain Valley: Edgar, Allen
- Los Alamitos: Edgar, Allen
- Huntington Beach: Edgar, Allen
- Westminster: Pham, Dovinh
- Garden Grove: Pham, Edgar
- Midway City: Pham, Dovinh
- Santa Ana: Pham, Dovinh
Had voter turnout been just a tad higher in Little Saigon or a tad lower in the non-Little Saigon parts of AD-72, Edgar would be facing off against fellow Republican Pham or Democrat Dovinh.
Looking at Pham’s first-or-fifth performance everywhere (outside of his home of Fountain Valley), it’s clear that Team Pham focused too much energy on Little Saigon. Just a little bit more mail, walkers, or other effort in the non-Little Saigon areas of AD-72 would have been just enough to get him that 0.7% he needed to make the run-off against Edgar.
67% of the voters cast their ballots for the three Republicans while 33% cast their ballots for the two Democrats. The majority of primary election voters (52.2%) cast their ballots for Dovinh, Pham, or Ayala. Edgar and Allen combined to win 47.9% of the vote.
The path to victory for the two November contenders goes through Little Saigon, the Democrats, and the independents. Between Edgar and Allen, whoever can get these large blocs of voters to swing behind them will be the next Assemblyman from the 72nd District.
Posted in 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: Albert Ayala, Joe Dovinh, Long Pham, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | 3 Comments »
Norby Notes 11 – Budget Deadline Looms & Top-2 Primary: A Whole New November
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on June 17, 2012
This came over the wire from Assemblyman Chris Norby’s office on Thursday…
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Posted in 65th Assembly District | Tagged: Chris Norby | 1 Comment »
How Fast is the Registrar of Voters Counting Ballots? When Will They Finish? Who Will This Affect?
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 14, 2012
On Friday evening, there were 17,125 uncounted ballots.
By Monday evening, there were 14,724 uncounted ballots, meaning 2,401 ballots were resolved on Monday.
By Tuesday evening, there were 9,528 uncounted ballots, meaning 5,196 ballots were resolved on Tuesday.
By last night, there were 4,625 uncounted ballots, meaning 4,903 ballots were resolved on Wednesday.
At the rate they’re going, it’s highly likely the Registrar of Voters completes the vote count today.
For visual learners:
There are only a few races that could still be affected by the outstanding ballots.
- Will Ray Grangoff close his 51-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District? Will Ken Williams close both his 115-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway and his 64-vote deficit to overtake Ray Grangroff for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District?
- Will Bill Dunlap close his 62-vote deficit to overtake John Draper for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 74th District?
Those two races are the only ones in all of Orange County where the gap between the elected and the unelected (or 2nd and 3rd place in those fighting to advance to November from primaries) is 0.3% or less. It is highly unlikely the 4,625 outstanding ballots would move the needle any more than 0.3%.
There are a couple races where the current leads would be unaffected by the remaining 4,625 ballots, but where the gap could close enough to lead the 3rd or 4th place candidate to pay for a recount to advance to November from the primaries. (I’m assuming no one’s going to pay for a recount for any party’s Central Committee.)
| 69th Assembly District | ||
| Tom Daly (D) | 10,862 | 39.3% |
| Jose “Joe” Moreno (R) | 5,933 | 21.5% |
| Julio Perez (D) | 5,649 | 20.4% |
| Michele Martinez (D) | 4,614 | 16.7% |
| Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D) | 594 | 2.1% |
Team Perez is likely contemplating whether they’ll pay for a recount if they get within 1% of Jose Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno). Perez’s allies spent six figures trying to elect him, so the cost of a recount wouldn’t be out of the question for them.
| 72nd Assembly District | ||
| Troy Edgar (R) | 17,968 | 28.0% |
| Travis Allen (R) | 12,726 | 19.8% |
| Joe Dovinh (D) | 12,353 | 19.3% |
| Long Pham (R) | 12,325 | 19.2% |
| Albert Ayala (D) | 8,756 | 13.7% |
Long Pham is likely contemplating if he will pay for a recount if he gets within 0.5% of Travis Allen. It’s unlikely Joe Dovinh or his team have the financial resources to pay for a recount. Pham would need to dig into his own pockets for a recount. He’s already spent $100,000 of his personal funds on his campaign and making 2nd place to get to the November general election against Troy Edgar may be the only way he recoups that $100,000.
The 1% for Perez vs. the 0.5% for Pham is on the basis that Perez would be more aggressive than Pham in pursuing a recount, as Perez’s allies spent more and have deeper pockets to pay for a recount while Pham spent less and has more shallow (less deep?) pockets.
Posted in 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, Orange County, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Albert Ayala, ballots, Bill Dunlap, Francisco Barragan, Jeff Lalloway, Joe Dovinh, John Draper, Jose Moreno, Julio Perez, Ken L. Williams Jr., Long Pham, Michele Martinez, Orange County Registrar of Voters, Paco Barragan, Ray Grangoff, Tom Daly, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | Leave a Comment »
AD-69: Traditional D vs. R Match-Up in Daly vs. Moreno; Martinez Plays Spoiler for Perez
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 13, 2012
On Monday, I took a look at AD-72, and in this post, I’ll be looking at another of OC’s multi-candidate Assembly races that has now narrowed down to two: AD-69.
Conventional wisdom held that if any OC district was going to feature an intraparty battle in November (courtesy of Prop 14), it was going to be the Republicans in AD-74 between Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle or the Democrats in AD-69 between OC Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly and either labor leader Julio Perez or Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez. (Unexpectedly, it was AD-72 that created OC’s sole intraparty battle with an all-Republican November matchup between Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.)
AD-69 will come down to Daly and Republican OC Eligibility Technician Jose “Joe” Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno).
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We here at OC Political predicted Daly vs. Moreno here, here, and here. (While we made several predictions that went wrong [like nearly everybody else, we failed to predict Edgar vs. Allen in AD-72], we’ve been consistent in predicting Daly 1st and Moreno 2nd in AD-69.)
This race was incredibly evenly divided. Daly was far and away the top vote-getter, getting nearly double the number of votes of the second-place candidate.
| Tom Daly | 10,724 | 39.6% |
| Jose “Joe” Moreno | 5,843 | 21.6% |
| Julio Perez | 5,440 | 20.1% |
| Michele Martinez | 4,506 | 16.6% |
| Francisco “Paco” Barragan | 577 | 2.1% |
Some readers may be wondering if Perez could still catch Moreno with the remaining uncounted ballots. There just aren’t enough out there. 27,090 out of the 417,965 ballots counted in Orange County so far cast votes in AD-69, which equals 6.5% of the votes. There are 9,528 uncounted ballots remaining in Orange County, which leaves approximately 619 votes remaining in AD-69. To make up his current 403-vote deficit, Perez would need to be ahead of Moreno by 65.1%. If Moreno captures 10% of the vote, that would require Perez get 75.1%, leaving just 14.9% to be split between Daly, Martinez, and Barragan. Let’s say AD-69 has a disproportionate share of the outstanding ballots, and double that to 1,238 ballots remaining in AD-69, Perez would need to be ahead of Moreno by 32.6%. That is a tough margin for Perez. If Moreno captures 10% of the vote, that would require Perez get 42.6%, leaving just 47.4% to be split between Daly, Martinez, and Barragan.
It’s clear from the results that Martinez was Perez’s spoiler. If just 10% of Martinez’s votes had gone to Perez, he would have surpassed Moreno and advanced to a run-off against Daly. Martinez and Perez were clearly the liberal Democrats in the race, with Daly and Barragan the more moderate Democrats, and Moreno was the Republican. The lion’s share of Martinez’s votes would have gone to Perez.
It’s now clear that without Michele Martinez in the race, union-backed Democrat Julio Perez would have advanced to the November run-off against business-backed Democrat Tom Daly.
Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: Allan Mansoor, Jose Moreno, Julio Perez, Leslie Daigle, Michele Martinez, Paco Barragan, spoiler, Tom Daly, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | 10 Comments »
AD-72: What Will Edgar & Allen Do in Their All-Republican November Matchup?
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 11, 2012
This week, I’ll be doing a series analyzing OC’s multi-candidate Assembly races that have now narrowed down to two. Our opener is the surprise in AD-72.
Conventional wisdom held that if any OC district was going to feature an intraparty battle in November (courtesy of Prop 14), it was going to be the Republicans in AD-74 between Allan Mansoor and Leslie Daigle or the Democrats in AD-69 between Tom Daly and either Julio Perez or Michele Martinez.
Lo and behold, AD-72 came out of nowhere with an all-Republican November matchup between Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.
AD-72 Matchup: Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) vs. Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach)
Conventional wisdom held that the Republican vote would split three ways between Edgar, Allen, and OC Board of Education Member Long Pham, while Joe Dovinh would hold most of the Democrats, with a small number of votes going to Democrat Albert Ayala.
Most people (myself included) predicted an Edgar vs. Dovinh matchup in November, a few predicted Allen vs. Dovinh, even fewer predicted Pham vs. Dovinh, but did anyone predict Edgar vs. Allen?
How did this happen? Edgar was weaker than expected allowing Allen and Pham to eat up more Republican votes while Ayala was stronger than expected eating up much of Dovinh’s votes from Democrats.
This race was incredibly evenly divided. First place was quite low at 28.2% and last place rose up to 13.6%. Second, third, and fourth place were 0.5% apart.
| Troy Edgar | 17,594 | 28.2% |
| Travis Allen | 12,300 | 19.7% |
| Joe Dovinh | 12,055 | 19.3% |
| Long Pham | 11,959 | 19.2% |
| Albert Ayala | 8,492 | 13.6% |
(Some readers may be wondering if Dovinh or Pham could still catch Allen with the remaining uncounted ballots. There just aren’t enough out there. 62,400 out of the 409,824 ballots counted in Orange County so far cast votes in AD-72, which equals 15.2% of the votes. There are 17,125 uncounted ballots remaining in Orange County, which leaves approximately 2,603 votes remaining in AD-72. To make up the current 245-vote deficit, Dovinh would need to be ahead of Allen by 9.4%. Dovinh never led Allen by more than 5.2%. To make up his current 341-vote deficit, Pham would need to be ahead of Allen by 13.1% and also be 3.7% ahead of Dovinh. Pham never led Allen by more than 5.5%. Now, of that 17,125 uncounted ballots, there are 15,642 provisionals, which do tend to favor Democrats; presumably, 2,378 of those provisionals cast votes in the AD-72 race, but provisionals have a higher invalidity rate than other ballots. Note also that Albert Ayala is still there sucking up a good chunk of votes that would otherwise go to Dovinh.)
The Edgar and Allen camps now face an interesting quandary: tack left, tack right, or try to do both. During the primary, Edgar and Allen both tried to run right, each proclaiming he was the real conservative and the other was closet liberal.
Both Edgar and Allen have interesting partisan histories. Edgar was a registered Democrat until switching his registration to Republican the same week that he filed to run for office for the first time when he did so in his successful bid for Los Alamitos City Council. Allen has donated large sums of money to Democrats, as reported by Jon Fleischman over at FlashReport.
If they run right, Edgar and Allen can each undercut each other’s bases and grab Pham’s supporters. If they run left, they can pick up Dovinh and Ayala’s supporters. Will Edgar and Allen both run right? Will they both run left? Will one run right while the other runs left? Will they attempt to be all things to all people, running right in mail to Republicans, running left in mail to Democrats, and proclaiming their independent/bipartisan/maverick qualities in mail to No Party Preference voters?
In the primary, both men were willing to dip into their personal funds to finance their campaigns. Edgar dropped $100,000 while Allen dropped $95,500. (By the way, Pham dropped $100,000 while Dovinh only dropped $1,000.) Many people will note that candidates often loan their campaigns money to make their warchests look bigger than they actually are. Well, not in AD-72! The largest remaining warchest is less than $25,000. Edgar, Allen, and Pham all spent the bulk of the money they dumped in their campaigns. To recoup that money, they’re going to have to raise it.
Edgar and Allen will need to spend the summer raising more money or else be willing to dip into their personal fortunes again. Either way, this should be an interesting November in AD-72, as Democrats laugh at Republican money being spent against Republicans.
(For our more literature-oriented readers, I will note in the race between Troy Edgar and Travis Allen, Marilynn Poe has endorsed her Council colleague, Edgar.)
Posted in 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: Albert Ayala, Allan Mansoor, FlashReport, Joe Dovinh, Jon Fleischman, Julio Perez, Leslie Daigle, Long Pham, Marilynn Poe, Michele Martinez, Tom Daly, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | 5 Comments »
Prop 14 in Action: Intraparty Battles in November
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 6, 2012
It used to be that the top vote-getter from each party in the June primary election advanced to the November general election. Well, Proposition 14 changed all that, requiring the top two candidates from the June primary to advance to November regardless of party, regardless of whether someone gained more than 50% of the vote, and regardless of whether there were only two candidates in June.
Like it or not, Prop 14 has caused a number of intraparty battles in November. Specifically, 28 out of 153 races (18.3%) will be intraparty battles in November. Here’s a rundown, based on last night’s results:
8 out of 53 Congressional races (15.1%), with two Democrats in 6 of the races and two Republicans in 2 of the races
- CD-8: Two Republicans (Paul Cook and Gregg Imus)
- CD-15: Two Democrats (incumbent Pete Stark and Eric Swalwell)
- CD-30: Two incumbent Democrats! (Brad Sherman and Howard Berman)
- CD-31: Two Republicans (incumbent Gary Miller and Bob Dutton)
- CD-35: Two Democrats (incumbent Joe Baca and Gloria Negrete McLeod)
- CD-40: Two Democrats (incumbent Lucille Roybal-Allard and David Sanchez)
- CD-43: Two Democrats (incumbent Maxine Waters and Bob Flores)
- CD-44: Two incumbent Democrats! (Janice Hahn and Laura Richardson)
2 out of 20 State Senate races (10%), with two Democrats in both races (it’s 20 Senate seats because Senate terms are staggered so only half the seats are on the ballot in any given general election)
- SD-13: Two Democrats (Jerry Hill and Sally Lieber)
- SD-15: Two Democrats (Jim Beall and Joe Coto)
18 out of 80 State Assembly races (22.5%), with two Democrats in 12 of the races and two Republicans in 6 of the races
- AD-1: Two Republicans (Brian Dahle and Rick Bosetti)
- AD-2: Two Democrats (incumbent Wesley Chesbro and Tom Lynch)
- AD-5: Two Republicans (Rico Oller and Frank Bigelow)
- AD-10: Two Democrats (incumbent Michael Allen and Marc Levine)
- AD-18: Two Democrats (Rob Bonta and Abel Guillen)
- AD-19: Two Democrats (Phil Ting and Michael Breyer)
- AD-20: Two Democrats (Bill Quirk and Jennifer Ong)
- AD-23: Two Republicans (Jim Patterson and Bob Whalen)
- AD-39: Two Democrats (Raul Bocanegra and Richard Alaron)
- AD-46: Two Democrats (Adam Nazarian and Brian Johnson)
- AD-47: Two Democrats (Joe Baca, Jr. and Cheryl Brown)
- AD-50: Two Democrats (incumbent Betsy Butler and Richard Bloom)
- AD-51: Two Democrats (Jimmy Gomez and Luis Lopez)
- AD-59: Two Democrats (Reggie Jones-Sawyer and Rodney Robinson)
- AD-62: Two Democrats (incumbent Steven Bradford and Mervin Evans)
- AD-67: Two Republicans (Phil Paule and Melissa Melendez)
- AD-72: Two Republicans (Troy Edgar and Travis Allen)
- AD-76: Two Republicans (Rocky Chavez and Sherry Hodges)
Posted in 72nd Assembly District, California | 5 Comments »
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