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Closer Look at Measure J Results, as LA County Issues Notice of Recount

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 11, 2014

Fullerton activist Tony Bushala filed an official request for a recount on Measure J, the $574 million bond in the two-county North Orange County Community College District (NOCCCD).  As a college bond, Measure J requires 55% voter approval to pass.

The LA County Registrar of Voters posted their official notice of recount and an LA County recount costs a shocking $5,074.71-$21,158.49 per day. Orange County has a much more reasonable $600 per day.

NOCCCD has 16 precincts in LA County, where 3,947 votes were cast.  NOCCCD has 522 precincts in Orange County, where 150,171 votes were cast.

Much chatter has been on the recount starting in LA County, as LA County Registrar Dean Logan is believed to be more likely to have erroneous counts than the very competent Orange County Registrar Neal Kelley.  Indeed, the OC Registrar recount in the Garden Grove Mayor’s race was cancelled after one day because not a single ballot changed. (Dean Logan’s role in the 2004 Washington Governor’s race was particularly high profile, as the Republican Dino Rossi led for Governor of Washington in multiple recounts until Logan’s King County found a bunch of ballots for Democrat Christine Gregoire.  Logan left King County to become LA County’s Chief Deputy Registrar in 2006 and became LA County’s Registrar in 2008.)

La Habra Heights (LA County) and Yorba Linda (Orange County) are the strongholds of the “No” vote, where most voters opposed Measure J.  Orange County’s Stanton, Anaheim, Buena Park, Garden Grove, Los Alamitos, and La Habra are the strongholds of the “Yes” vote, as are the unincorporated areas of both counties; voters in these areas voted in favor of Measure J by margins exceeding 55%. OC’s Fullerton, Placentia, La Palma, Cypress, Brea, and unincorporated Rossmoor, along with LA County’s Whittier are the closer areas, where Measure J got over 50% but less than the 55% supermajority.

City/Community Yes No
La Mirada 1 100.00% 0 0.00%
Stanton 2265 65.94% 1170 34.06%
Orange 13 65.00% 7 35.00%
Anaheim 19645 60.51% 12821 39.49%
Buena Park 6942 59.06% 4813 40.94%
Garden Grove 2768 58.62% 1954 41.38%
Los Alamitos 1383 57.01% 1043 42.99%
Seal Beach 1287 55.40% 1036 44.60%
Unincorporated LA County 831 55.40% 669 44.60%
La Habra 2449 55.23% 1985 44.77%
Unincorporated OC (Excluding Rossmoor) 3698 55.11% 3012 44.89%
Fullerton 14308 54.74% 11829 45.26%
Placentia 5562 54.32% 4678 45.68%
La Palma 1819 53.63% 1573 46.37%
Cypress 5675 52.68% 5098 47.32%
Brea 4997 52.59% 4504 47.41%
Whittier 620 52.28% 566 47.72%
Rossmoor 1804 50.73% 1752 49.27%
La Habra Heights 577 45.79% 683 54.21%
Yorba Linda 8136 44.51% 10145 55.49%
TOTAL  84780 55.01% 69338 44.99%

Math should be a nonpartisan issue, so in the spirit of this, I’ll concur with Greg Diamond’s math that overturning Measure J requires tossing 34 “Yes” votes at Orange Juice Blog.

However, I understand why the OC Register states Measure J passed by 15 votes.  With 154,118 votes cast, 55% is 84,765 votes. Measure J got 15 votes more: 84,780.  That does not mean that 15 votes is how to defeat Measure J.

Somehow moving 16 votes from the Yes column to the No column would defeat Measure J.  However, that would be a tall order, as that would literally require the vote counting machines to have counted “No” votes as “Yes” votes 16 times.  That seems rather unlikely, with the increased accuracy of vote counting machines in recent years.

The more likely way to defeat Measure J in the recount would be for 34 “Yes” votes to be tossed, as Diamond’s math explains.  His math and mine agree, but here’s a table that presents it in a different method that may help those confused by Diamond’s description:

“Yes” Votes Tossed Yes No Total 55%
0 84780 55.0097976874862% 69338 44.9902023125138% 154118 84765
1 84779 55.0095057651005% 69338 44.9904942348995% 154117 84765
2 84778 55.0092138389265% 69338 44.9907861610735% 154116 84764
3 84777 55.0089219089641% 69338 44.9910780910359% 154115 84764
4 84776 55.0086299752132% 69338 44.9913700247868% 154114 84763
5 84775 55.0083380376737% 69338 44.9916619623263% 154113 84763
6 84774 55.0080460963455% 69338 44.9919539036545% 154112 84762
7 84773 55.0077541512287% 69338 44.9922458487713% 154111 84762
8 84772 55.0074622023230% 69338 44.9925377976770% 154110 84761
9 84771 55.0071702496285% 69338 44.9928297503715% 154109 84760
10 84770 55.0068782931451% 69338 44.9931217068549% 154108 84760
11 84769 55.0065863328726% 69338 44.9934136671274% 154107 84759
12 84768 55.0062943688111% 69338 44.9937056311889% 154106 84759
13 84767 55.0060024009604% 69338 44.9939975990396% 154105 84758
14 84766 55.0057104293205% 69338 44.9942895706795% 154104 84758
15 84765 55.0054184538912% 69338 44.9945815461088% 154103 84757
16 84764 55.0051264746726% 69338 44.9948735253274% 154102 84757
17 84763 55.0048344916646% 69338 44.9951655083354% 154101 84756
18 84762 55.0045425048670% 69338 44.9954574951330% 154100 84755
19 84761 55.0042505142798% 69338 44.9957494857202% 154099 84755
20 84760 55.0039585199029% 69338 44.9960414800971% 154098 84754
21 84759 55.0036665217363% 69338 44.9963334782637% 154097 84754
22 84758 55.0033745197799% 69338 44.9966254802201% 154096 84753
23 84757 55.0030825140336% 69338 44.9969174859664% 154095 84753
24 84756 55.0027905044973% 69338 44.9972094955027% 154094 84752
25 84755 55.0024984911709% 69338 44.9975015088291% 154093 84752
26 84754 55.0022064740545% 69338 44.9977935259455% 154092 84751
27 84753 55.0019144531478% 69338 44.9980855468522% 154091 84751
28 84752 55.0016224284509% 69338 44.9983775715491% 154090 84750
29 84751 55.0013303999637% 69338 44.9986696000363% 154089 84749
30 84750 55.0010383676860% 69338 44.9989616323140% 154088 84749
31 84749 55.0007463316179% 69338 44.9992536683821% 154087 84748
32 84748 55.0004542917591% 69338 44.9995457082409% 154086 84748
33 84747 55.0001622481098% 69338 44.9998377518902% 154085 84747
34 84746 54.9998702006698% 69338 45.0001297993302% 154084 84747

Posted in North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: | 11 Comments »

1st Supervisorial District: New Year’s Eve Absentees, Christmas Campaign

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 3, 2014

The 1st Supervisorial District special election has been set for Tuesday, January 27, 2015 to fill the vacancy that resulted when Supervisor Janet Nguyen was elected to the 34th Senate District.

In the last special election for the 1st Supervisorial District in February 2007, 77% of votes cast were by absentee ballots.  In the November 2006 general election three months prior, 48% of votes were cast by absentee ballots.  In the November 2014 general election, 61% of votes were cast by absentee ballot.

With the continuing trend of increasing use of absentee ballots in general elections, there is no doubt that special elections will be even more heavily dominated by absentee ballots, so this January 2015 special election should see well over 80% of its votes cast by absentee ballot and could well hit 90%.

Permanent absentee ballots are mailed 29 days before each election.  Well, 29 days before January 27, 2015 is December 29, 2014.  In other words, voters in this election will begin receiving their absentee ballots on December 30 – the day before New Year’s Eve.

Candidacy papers are currently available and are due by December 15.  Sample ballots cannot be printed until all candidates have filed their candidacy paperwork, so voters will be receiving their Christmas cards alongside their sample ballots.

That of course leaves the fun of when campaign mailers start arriving.  In fact, the first mailers should be arriving any day now.  Any candidate intending to send negative mail will need to do so before absentee ballots arrive, but Christmas is the Thursday before absentee ballots arrive.  Nothing brings Christmas joy to voters like a hit piece, so this may have to stay an unusually positive campaign. Otherwise, somebody’s going to endure the unusual risk of launching a Christmas attack mailer.

Former Senator/Supervisor Lou Correa, Garden Grove Councilman Chris Phan, former Garden Grove Councilman Andrew Do, and whoever else jumps into the 1st Supervisorial District race will have to utilize out-of-the-box campaign strategies to deal with this holiday-laden election schedule.

Some good news for Phan and Do: this election will not collide with the Vietnamese New Year, as Tet is not until February.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Anaheim: Vanderbilt Won the Hills, Murray & Eastman Won the Flatlands

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 2, 2014

Virtually every political analysis of the City of Anaheim references the split between Anaheim Hills and the Flatlands.

A closer look at the 2014 election results confirms that split – but in counterintuitive fashion.  Mayor Tom Tait won 61.7% of the Anaheim Hills vote in his re-election bid but less than half the vote in the Flatlands, though even then, this is a 42.5% victory margin for Tait in Anaheim Hills versus 24.1% in the Flatlands. Lucille Kring beat Lorri Galloway by 6.4% in Anaheim Hills, but Galloway beat Kring by 5.1% in the Flatlands.

In fairness to Kring, she scored fairly consistently across the city with only a 0.3% differential in Hills versus Flatlands. The big difference was for Galloway whose Flatland votes were nearly double the percentage of her votes in the Hills, with 24.6% in the Flatlands versus 12.8% in the Hills.

More intuitively, three of the candidates did better where they live than the other part of town: Kring and Fitzgerald did better on their home turf in the Flatlands while Tait did better in the Hills, where he lives. It looks like Galloway’s neighbors don’t like her, as she is an Anaheim Hills resident but did far better in the Flatlands than the Hills.

Anaheim Hills
Tom Tait 9945 61.7%
Lucille Kring 3093 19.2%
Lorri Galloway 2071 12.8%
Denis Fitzgerald 1018 6.3%

 

Flatlands
Tom Tait 14171 48.7%
Lorri Galloway 7164 24.6%
Lucille Kring 5664 19.5%
Denis Fitzgerald 2072 7.1%

 

Anaheim Hills vs. Flatlands
Tom Tait +13.0%
Lorri Galloway -11.8%
Lucille Kring -0.3%
Denis Fitzgerald -0.8%

Flatlander James Vanderbilt was the top vote-getter for City Council in Anaheim Hills; he came in third in the Flatlands behind Hills resident Kris Murray and Flatlander Gail Eastman. The first through third place spread of Murray, Eastman, and Vanderbilt was 2% in the Hills and 1.1% in the Flatlands.  Nevertheless, Vanderbilt beat Eastman in Anaheim Hills by 333 votes while Eastman beat Vanderbilt in the Flatlands by 130 votes, thereby giving Vanderbilt his 203-vote citywide victory.

Anaheim Hills
James D. Vanderbilt 3719 22.8%
Kris Murray 3674 22.6%
Gail Eastman 3386 20.8%
Doug Pettibone 1810 11.1%
Jose F. Moreno (1) 1492 9.2%
Jerry O’Keefe 1399 8.6%
Donna Michelle Acevedo 502 3.1%
Jose Moreno (2) 303 1.9%

 

Flatlands
Kris Murray 12533 20.2%
Gail Eastman 11952 19.3%
James D. Vanderbilt 11822 19.1%
Jose F. Moreno (1) 10029 16.2%
Doug Pettibone 5499 8.9%
Jerry O’Keefe 4845 7.8%
Donna Michelle Acevedo 2686 4.3%
Jose Moreno (2) 2673 4.3%

 

Anaheim Hills vs. Flatlands
James D. Vanderbilt +3.7%
Kris Murray +2.4%
Gail Eastman +1.5%
Jose F. Moreno (1) -7.0%
Doug Pettibone +2.2%
Jerry O’Keefe +0.8%
Donna Michelle Acevedo -1.2%
Jose Moreno (2) -2.4%

The number that jumps out is Jose F. Moreno’s 7% gap in the Hills.  (Either way, though, Moreno fell 3% short of the top two slots in both the Hills and the Flatlands.)  While at first, some might instinctively claim race as the reason for his 7% drop in the Hills, but before the polls closed, Matt Cunningham at Anaheim Blog found a more innocuous reason: the old-fashioned hard work of campaigning.  The title of Cunningham’s blog and the photo he showed from Moreno’s campaign office explain it all, so here they are: “Jose Moreno Campaign Ignoring Anaheim Hills

In this photo, the Moreno campaign’s office door literally shut out Anaheim Hills.

 

Anaheim Hills defeated Measure N, the obscure local services measure. The Flatlands voted in favor of Measure N 53%-47%. The Hills voted against Measure N 56%-44%.

Measure N
Anaheim Hills Flatlands
Yes 6635 44% 14778 53%
No 8452 56% 13083 47%

Measure L, the vote-by-district measure, won by an unexpectedly large margin. It was widely expected that the measure would have a tough time in Anaheim Hills. It did not, but Anaheim Hills did support it by a weaker margin than the Flatlands did, so in the Anaheim split did go with expectations, rather than against them, but simply in a negligible percentage. Measure L won 64% of Anaheim Hills votes while it won 72% in the Flatlands.

Measure L
Anaheim Hills Flatlands
Yes 10213 64% 20660 72%
No 5750 36% 8231 28%

Measure M, the measure to grow the City Council by two seats, won in unexpectedly close fashion. In the Flatlands, it won 56% of the vote while in Anaheim Hills, it won with a much closer 51% of the vote.

Measure M
Anaheim Hills Flatlands
Yes 7836 51% 15916 56%
No 7652 49% 12451 44%

Posted in Anaheim | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

New State Legislators Sworn in Today

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 1, 2014

California State CapitolIt’s the first Monday in December of an even year, so California’s new and re-elected state legislators will be sworn in today at 12:00 PM.  27 of 80 Assembly Members (33.75%) and 10 of 40 Senators (25%) will be freshmen.

Republicans picked up enough seats to break the Democratic supermajorities in both houses.

Orange County’s delegation will have proportionally even more freshmen, with 4 out of 7 Assembly Members (57.14%) and 3 of 5 Senators (60%) holding their first terms in their respective houses.

While the new Senators already have their official web sites up, the new Assembly Members do not, presumably waiting for the swearing-in at 12:00 PM.

As of 12:00 PM, Orange County’s Assembly delegation will consist of:

  • Ling-Ling Chang (R-Diamond Bar), 55th District (far northern Orange County, southeastern LA County, and Chino Hills) – First Term
  • Young Kim (R-Fullerton), 65th District (northwestern Orange County) – First Term
  • Don Wagner (R-Irvine), 68th District (eastern Orange County) – Third Term
  • Tom Daly (D-Anaheim), 69th District (central Orange County) – Second Term
  • Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach), 72nd District (Orange County’s northern coast and Little Saigon) – Second Term
  • Bill Brough (R-Dana Point), 73rd District (southern Orange County) – First Term
  • Matt Harper (R-Huntington Beach), 74th District (Orange County’s central coast) – First Term

As of 12:00 PM, Orange County’s Senate delegation will consist of:

  • Bob Huff (R-Diamond Bar), 29th District (northern Orange County, southeastern LA County, and Chino Hills) – Midway Through Second Term
  • Tony Mendoza (D-Artesia), 30th District (Buena Park and portions of LA County)
  • Janet Nguyen (R-Garden Grove), 34th District (central Orange County and portions of Long Beach) – First Term
  • Patricia Bates (R-Laguna Niguel), 36th District (southern Orange County and northern San Diego County) – First Term
  • Mimi Walters (R-Irvine), 37th District (eastern Orange County) – Midway Through Second Term

Walters is still a State Senator, as she will not be sworn into the United States Congress until January.

Posted in 29th Senate District, 30th Senate District, 34th Senate District, 36th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, State Assembly, State Senate | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Garden Grove Recount Ends After 1 Day: Nguyen In, Broadwater Out, Vacancy on School Board

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 25, 2014

Yesterday, the recount in the Garden Grove Mayor’s race began and ended. After recounting 2,679 ballots in 10 precincts (of which 2,515, or 93.9%, cast a vote for Mayor), not a single ballot changed, so the original count remains:

CITY OF GARDEN GROVE Mayor
Completed Precincts: 87 of 87
Vote Count Percentage
BAO NGUYEN 11,785 42.4%
* BRUCE ALLAN BROADWATER 11,770 42.4%
ALBERT AYALA 4,234 15.2%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate

After counting approximately 1/10 of the vote and getting no changes, Mayor Bruce Broadwater, who initiated the recall, threw in the towel.

Consequently, Garden Grove Unified School District Trustee Bao Nguyen (D) unseated Mayor Broadwater (D) by 15 votes.

For those of you interested in the counts in each precinct:

Precinct Ballots
Recounted
Candidate Name Original
Tally
Hand
Tally
14041 314 Albert Ayala 29 29
14041 314 Bao Nguyen 161 161
14041 314 Bruce Allan Broadwater 111 111
14047 344 Albert Ayala 27 27
14047 344 Bao Nguyen 187 187
14047 344 Bruce Allan Broadwater 115 115
14061 180 Albert Ayala 16 16
14061 180 Bao Nguyen 83 83
14061 180 Bruce Allan Broadwater 72 72
14063 100 Albert Ayala 16 16
14063 100 Bao Nguyen 43 43
14063 100 Bruce Allan Broadwater 36 36
14249 265 Albert Ayala 16 16
14249 265 Bao Nguyen 130 130
14249 265 Bruce Allan Broadwater 101 101
14250 265 Albert Ayala 26 26
14250 265 Bao Nguyen 125 125
14250 265 Bruce Allan Broadwater 97 97
14257 160 Albert Ayala 21 21
14257 160 Bao Nguyen 67 67
14257 160 Bruce Allan Broadwater 57 57
14275 452 Albert Ayala 14 14
14275 452 Bao Nguyen 267 267
14275 452 Bruce Allan Broadwater 133 133
14317 270 Albert Ayala 16 16
14317 270 Bao Nguyen 145 145
14317 270 Bruce Allan Broadwater 94 94
14323 329 Albert Ayala 22 22
14323 329 Bao Nguyen 192 192
14323 329 Bruce Allan Broadwater 96 96

A long-term fixture in Garden Grove politics who served as either Mayor or Councilmember for 20 of the last 22 years, Broadwater had been Mayor for six nonconsecutive terms (1994-2004, 2012-2014) and served three terms on the City Council (1992-1994, 2006-2012).  A union organizer by profession, Nguyen was appointed to the Garden Grove Unified School District Board of Trustees in 2011 and elected to a full term in 2012.

Broadwater’s final Council meeting will be tonight.  Nguyen’s first Council meeting will be December 9.  The Garden Grove Unified School District has 60 days to appoint a new Trustee to complete Nguyen’s term, which expires in 2016.  Should they not appoint in 60 days, they will trigger a special election.

It is not legally possible to consolidate a Garden Grove Unified School District special election with the First Supervisorial District special election to replace Supervisor Janet Nguyen (R) who was elected to the Senate.  The Education Code specifies that a special election to fill a school board seat must be at least 130 days after the Board calls the special election.  The County Charter specifies that a special election to fill a Supervisor’s seat must be no later than 70 days after the vacancy occurs.  The Election Code specifies elections must always occur on a Tuesday.

For the sake of argument, had Bao Nguyen resigned on Election Day, and the school district called the special election as fast as possible after that, the earliest legal date for a Garden Grove Unified School District special election would be Tuesday, March 17, 2015.  If (as expected), Janet Nguyen remains a Supervisor until she is sworn in as a Senator on December 1, the latest legal date for a First Supervisorial District special election would be Tuesday, February 3, 2015.

Considering Bao Nguyen was originally appointed to the Garden Grove Unified School District Board of Trustees, it seems likely that the school board would appoint again rather than go to special election.  The scenarios that would cause a special election would be if the school board failed to appoint (i.e. no individual candidate could obtain three votes from the Board) or if 1.5% of voters petition to invalidate the appointment (i.e. the scenario that caused the bizarre Irvine Unified School District special election that resulted in Ira Glasky (R) becoming quite possibly the first person ever to be sworn in to the same office three times in a twelve-month period: at his appointment in late December 2013, after his special election in June 2014, and again in early December 2014 after the November 2014 general election).

Will former Garden Grove Unified School District Trustee Trung Nguyen (R) seek the appointment?  Three of the four trustees served with Nguyen on the Board while the fourth was elected to fill his vacancy in 2008.

  • Readers may recall that in the 2007 special election for First District Supervisor to replace Lou Correa (D) who was elected to the Senate, Trung Nguyen led Janet Nguyen in the initial count by seven votes.  After the recount, the lead flipped, and Janet Nguyen led Trung Nguyen by seven votes.  Then after going to court, the lead shrunk, and Janet Nguyen was elected Supervisor over Trung Nguyen by three votes.
  • Trung Nguyen then made an ill-fated bid for Garden Grove City Council in 2008, losing by nearly 3,000 votes (or 3.7%) to Andrew Do (R), Janet Nguyen’s Chief of Staff.  Trung Nguyen gave up his school board seat, as it expired in the same 2008 election.
  • Then, in this month’s elections, Trung Nguyen made an ill-fated bid to unseat incumbent Rancho Santiago Community College District Trustee Larry Labrado (D), losing by more than 2,400 votes (or a whopping 25.7%).

With Nguyen expressing interest in returning to an education seat after a six year absence, will his old colleagues reappoint him, or will they seek new blood?

Cue Nguyen disclaimer: Senator-Elect Janet Nguyen, Mayor-Elect Bao Nguyen, and former Trustee Trung Nguyen are not related to each other, and none of them are related to me.  The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.

Posted in Garden Grove, Garden Grove Unified School District, Irvine Unified School District, Rancho Santiago Community College District | Tagged: , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

0.1%: OC’s Most Likely Recounts

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 18, 2014

The Registrar of Voters finished counting last night and will certify the election today.  With OC’s electronic ballots and optical scan vote-by-mail/paper ballots, counts are quite accurate, and it would be difficult to move the needle more than 0.1% in a recount.  There are three races that are within that 0.1% margin in Orange County:

Costa Mesa is the epitome of a deeply divided city.  With a 3-2 conservative majority Council, neither conservatives or liberals have been able to pull off a clean sweep in that city in any given election year, and city council elections are frequently close. Mayor Jim Righeimer (R) beat former Councilman Jay Humphrey (D) by 0.1%, or 47 votes.  You can bet on a recount here.  In a city this divided with this close a margin, it doesn’t matter who was ahead, the side that was 47 votes behind would pay for a recount.  Coming into this election, many considered this the third most important City Council election in Orange County, behind only Anaheim and Irvine.

CITY OF COSTA MESA Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 70 of 70
Vote Count Percentage
KATRINA FOLEY 9,346 26.5%
* JIM RIGHEIMER 7,524 21.3%
JAY HUMPHREY 7,477 21.2%
LEE RAMOS 5,305 15.0%
TONY CAPITELLI 1,856 5.3%
AL MELONE 1,470 4.2%
RITA LOUISE SIMPSON 1,200 3.4%
CHRISTOPHER SCOTT BUNYAN 1,108 3.1%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

In the Garden Grove Mayor’s race, three Democrats fought it out.  Garden Grove Unified School District Trustee Bao Nguyen brought incumbent Mayor Bruce Broadwater to a statistical tie of 42.4% but beat him by 15 votes.  With a statistical tie, this is Orange County’s closest race.

Nguyen, a 34-year-old union organizer, is a full 32 years younger than the 76-year-old incumbent.  (Nguyen’s day job is as an organizer for the American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees Local 3930.)  For Republicans, an up-and-coming 34-year-old Vietnamese Democrat is a much greater long-term threat than a nearly-retired 76-year-old white Democrat in the Garden Mayor’s seat.  Broadwater is unlikely to run for anything other than Mayor in the future.  Nguyen sits in the 1st Supervisorial District, 34th Senate District, and 47th Congressional District.  While Senator-Elect Janet Nguyen should be able to defeat Bao Nguyen in any of those races, she can’t personally hold all three seats.

While Janet Nguyen is now the highest ranking Vietnamese American elected official in the country, Bao Nguyen will be the first Vietnamese American Mayor of a city with over 100,000 people – unless Broadwater can prevail in a recount.  (For the record, Senator-Elect Janet Nguyen and Mayor-Elect Bao Nguyen are not related to each other, and neither of them are related to me.  The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

CITY OF GARDEN GROVE Mayor
Completed Precincts: 87 of 87
Vote Count Percentage
BAO NGUYEN 11,785 42.4%
* BRUCE ALLAN BROADWATER 11,770 42.4%
ALBERT AYALA 4,234 15.2%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

In the quietest close race in Orange County, Carol A. Moore beat Rae C. Tso by 0.1% for Laguna Woods City Council in a battle between two candidates registered to vote as No Party Preference.  Moore is beating Tso by 16 votes.  Tso said publicly yesterday that she will not seek a recount.

Those following the Laguna Woods politics have indicated that Moore supports replacing the management company that runs the homeowners association in Laguna Woods (remember that Laguna Woods has one homeowners association that encompasses 90%+ of the homes in the city).  This is almost analogous to replacing the city staff after an election in any other city in Orange County.  No word on if the management company or another third party will seek a recount since Tso won’t seek one.

CITY OF LAGUNA WOODS Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 16 of 16
Vote Count Percentage
* BERT HACK 3,419 25.3%
CAROL A. MOORE 2,963 21.9%
RAE C. TSO 2,947 21.8%
AL RODDAN 1,473 10.9%
MARK L. MONIN 1,403 10.4%
DAVID RUSSELL OHRN 1,323 9.8%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

It is highly unlikely anyone can move the needle by more than 0.1% in a recount.  However, if there’s a place that will try, it may well be the City of Anaheim, which has a pair of 0.2% races.

In the Anaheim City Council race, James D. Vanderbilt beat Gail Eastman by 0.2%, or 203 votes.  While Democrats had an intraparty battle for Garden Grove Mayor, Republicans had an intraparty battle for Anaheim City Council.

Like Costa Mesa, Anaheim is a deeply divided city.  Mayor Tom Tait, the leader of the Council minority, won re-election with 53.4% of the vote, a 33% victory over his closest challenger former Councilwoman Lorri Galloway.  Falling 1% behind Galloway is Councilwoman Lucille Kring, who is a member of the Council majority.  Mayor Pro Tem Kris Murray, the leader of the Council majority, was the top vote-getter in her bid for re-election to the City Council.  Vanderbilt was backed by Tait and joins the Council minority while the narrowly-defeated Eastman was part of the Council majority.  This election result gives Anaheim a 3-2 council.

When the voters narrowly deliver a 3-2 Council, give the minority Mayor a landslide re-election, and make the majority Mayor Pro Tem the top vote-getter in the City Council race, that is truly a closely-divided city.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 147 of 147
Vote Count Percentage
* KRIS MURRAY 16,207 20.7%
JAMES D. VANDERBILT 15,541 19.8%
* GAIL EASTMAN 15,338 19.6%
JOSE F. MORENO (1) 11,521 14.7%
DOUG PETTIBONE 7,309 9.3%
JERRY O’KEEFE 6,244 8.0%
DONNA MICHELLE ACEVEDO 3,188 4.1%
JOSE MORENO (2) 2,976 3.8%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

In the close race the press (but not the bloggers) forgot, Anaheim’s obscure Measure N has lost by 0.2% or 122 votes.  Does anyone care enough to bother with a difficult recount for an obscure ballot measure?  If there’s a recount in the Anaheim City Council race, can a Measure N recount piggy back on it?

N-City of Anaheim, Local Services Measure
Completed Precincts: 147 of 147
Vote Count Percentage
Yes 21,413 49.9%
No 21,535 50.1%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Three cities ended up with 0.3% margins in their city council races.  Recounts are even further out of reach for these three cities.

In a Republican intraparty battle for Dana Point City Council, Joe Muller beat Jody Payne by 0.3%, or 61 votes. The Dana Point Council was in for a make over this year, with majority Councilmember Steve Weinberg (D) termed out, majority Mayor Lisa Bartlett (R) elected to the Board of Supervisors, and minority Councilmember Bill Brough (R) elected to the State Assembly.

Top vote-getter John Tomlinson (R) was endorsed by both remaining Councilmen, majority member Scott Schoeffel (R) and minority member Carlos Olvera (R).  Olvera also endorsed Richard A. Viczorek (R) who was elected in the second spot.  In fact, Olvera goes from being in the minority on a 3-2 Council to leading a 4-1 supermajority (or 3-2 majority, depending on how one interprets Tomlinson), with his preferred candidate Muller (R) defeating Schoeffel’s preferred candidate, Payne (R).

Dana Point Residents for Responsible Redevelopment (DPRRR) endorsed Payne (R), Harold Kaufman (R), and Chuck Rathbone (R).  With a similar set of priorities to Yorba Linda Residents for Responsible Redevelopment (YLRRR), who managed to lose seats, falling into a 4-1 superminority in Yorba Linda, it’s clear voters are sending RRR packing across the County.

CITY OF DANA POINT Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 30 of 30
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN TOMLINSON 3,229 13.5%
RICHARD A. VICZOREK 3,117 13.0%
JOE MULLER 3,010 12.6%
JODY PAYNE 2,949 12.3%
ALAN WICKSTROM 2,935 12.3%
NANCY JENKINS 2,714 11.4%
HAROLD R. KAUFMAN 2,368 9.9%
ROY “RYAN” DIVEL IV 1,962 8.2%
CHUCK RATHBONE 1,617 6.8%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Coming into this year’s elections, it was long said that Anaheim and Irvine were the two most important Council races.  While Anaheim was an intraparty Republican battle, Irvine is an old-fashioned Republican vs. Democrat party-line contest.  Republican Mayor Pro Tem Jeffrey Lalloway beat Democrat Melissa Fox by 0.3%, or 210 votes.  Unlike in Anaheim, this was not make the Council more divided.  Indeed, Lalloway’s re-election ensures a 4-1 supermajority in Irvine.  Had Fox been elected, it would have simply kept the 3-2 status quo split.  Republican Lynn Schott unseated long-time Councilman Larry Agran (D), a former candidate for President of the United States.  Agran has been either Mayor or City Councilmember in Irvine for 28 of the last 36 years, being out of office from 1990 to 1998 (he ran for President in 1992).  Recall that the City of Irvine is only 43 years old.  Agran has been Mayor or Council member for 65% of Irvine’s existence.

CITY OF IRVINE Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 109 of 109
Vote Count Percentage
LYNN SCHOTT 16,814 22.9%
* JEFFREY LALLOWAY 16,749 22.8%
MELISSA FOX 16,539 22.5%
* LARRY AGRAN 14,403 19.6%
EVAN CHEMERS 8,966 12.2%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

In the Fountain Valley School District, Jim Cunneen (R) beat Gary Stine (D) by 0.3%, or 83 votes.

FOUNTAIN VALLEY SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 31 of 31
Vote Count Percentage
* SANDRA CRANDALL 9,208 31.6%
LISA SCHULTZ 7,583 26.0%
JIM CUNNEEN 6,231 21.4%
GARY STINE 6,148 21.1%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

In the Orange Unified School District, the $296 million Measure K bond fell short of 55% vote threshold by 0.4% or 191 votes.  This is the third bond to fail in OUSD since two bonds were defeated in 2004, the November 2004 achieved the identical 54.6% that the November 2014 bond achieved.  The March 2004 bond failed to even reach 50%.

K-Orange Unified School District, Critical Upgrades and Repairs for Quality High Schools
Completed Precincts: 164 of 164
Vote Count Percentage
Bonds – Yes 25,992 54.6%
Bonds – No 21,613 45.4%

In the Centralia School District, former Trustee Art Montez (D) beat Kevin Sequeira (R) by 0.6%, or 128 votes.  Centralia voters were clearly in an anti-incumbent mood, as can be seen how the candidates placed.  20-year-old newcomer Connor Traut (D), the second coming of Jordan Brandman, was the top vote-getter.  La Palma Councilman Henry Charoen (R) came in second.  Former Trustees Montez (D) and Sequeira (R) came in third and fourth.  Sitting Trustee Irv Trinkle (R) came in dead last.

CENTRALIA SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 36 of 36
Vote Count Percentage
CONNOR TRAUT 4,764 25.1%
HENRY CHAROEN 3,939 20.8%
ART MONTEZ 3,763 19.8%
KEVIN SEQUEIRA 3,635 19.2%
* IRV TRINKLE 2,862 15.1%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

In the Ocean View School District, Joseph A. Gaglione (R) beat incumbent Tracy Pellman (R) by 0.6%.  In a bizarre race, incumbents John Briscoe (R) and Pellman (R) each accused each other of being secretly backed by the union as their third candidate while the union openly backed Gaglione (R) and Jack Souders (R).  Libertarian former Trustee Norm Westwell and American Independent incumbent Trustee John Ortiz came in the last two spots.

OCEAN VIEW SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 53 of 53
Vote Count Percentage
JACK C. SOUDERS 10,544 22.3%
* JOHN BRISCOE 8,909 18.8%
JOSEPH A. GAGLIONE 8,197 17.3%
* TRACY PELLMAN 7,898 16.7%
NORM WESTWELL 6,427 13.6%
* JOHN R. ORTIZ 5,339 11.3%

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Finally, the $574-million North Orange County Community College District’s Measure J bond actually still counting because that district straddles into LA County.  LA County expects to certify the election on Friday.  Measure J is at exactly the 55.0% bond threshold and leads by 8 votes.

In Orange County:

J-North Orange County Community College District, Fullerton/Cypress Colleges Bond Measure
Completed Precincts: 522 of 522
Vote Count Percentage
Bonds – Yes 82,751 55.1%
Bonds – No 67,420 44.9%

In LA County:

NO ORANGE CO COMM COLL SP MEASURE J
Los Angeles County Results Only

Measure J Votes Percent
COLLEGE IMPROVEMENT BONDS
YES 1,946 51.06
NO 1,865 48.94
Registration 11,729
Precincts Reporting* 16
Total Precincts 16

Combined total:

Measure J Votes Percent
Yes 84,697 55.00%
No 69,285 45.00%

Technically, “Yes” is at 55.004481043238820121832421971399% while “No” is at 44.995518956761179878167578028601%.

Barring a huge swing in LA, I would imagine Measure J will go to recount.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

Live from the Common Core Hearings at OC Board of Education

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 17, 2014

We’re live from the OC Board of Education hearings on Common Core. This is an incredibly full audience. It took this blogger 10 minutes to find a parking space.  The hearing is so full that no more people are being let in the hearing room: there are 30 people in the hallway and 50 people outside the building listening to the hearings on loudspeakers the Department of Education set up outdoors.

Stacy Butler of CBS 2/KCAL 9 is here with a cameraman.

There are families with children of all ages, some teenagers who appear to be here of their own volition (!) without adults, senior citizens, and even people with infants.

There are numerous public commenters on both sides of the issue. Despite the controversial nature of the issue and the large crowd, both sides are quite civil. I’ve heard no jeering or booing. There is polite applause after each speaker.

After public comment, Board President Dr. Ken Williams hands the meeting to meeting facilitator Maggie Chidester.

She introduces the proponent panel:
*Gerald Solomon, Executive Director, Samueli Foundation
*Bill McCallum, Professor of Mathematics, University of Arizona
*Doug Grove, Assistant Provost for Adult, Graduate, and Online Learning, Concordia University
*Deborah Brown, Associate Director, Education Policy Children Now

She introduces the opponent panel:
*Zev Wurman, Former Senior Policy Advisor, Office of Planning/Evaluation/Policy Development, US Department of Education
*Sandra Stotsky, Professor Emerita, University of Arkansas, The Department of Education Reform
*James Milgram, Professor of Mathematics, Stanford University and former Common Core Validation Committee
*Karen Effrem, President, Education Liberty Watch

Proponent Gerald Solomon spends lots of time on his credentials. He claims 8% of California’s budget goes to education while 10% goes to prisons (that is patently false, as well over 40% goes to K-12 education).

Proponent Bill McCallum states the key principles of Common Core are focusing on important life skills and thinking subjects, coherence by making mathematics an easy to understand language, reorganizing math teaching sequences in a more logical order, conceptual understanding, drawing on prior knowledge, and ensuring students’ college readiness. He says critics have failed to distinguish between college readiness and STEM readiness with liberal arts majors not needing STEM. He calls for continued access to calculus even though Common Core stops at Algebra II. He argues Common Core is the baseline not the ceiling.

Proponent Doug Grove warns that many students are not college ready. He decries six-year graduation rates, dropping out, and student loan defaults due to students not being ready for college. He notes numerous institutions of higher education have endorsed Common Core as a way to prepare students for college or the workforce. He says students need to be able to think critically and apply their skills to real world situations. He is baffled by having a single standardized test at the end of each year for students. He says there is no perfect solution but hopes people can unite behind Common Core to improve student learning.

Proponent Deborah Brown speaks about California being a model for how to implement Common Core. She noted California sped up the timeline for districts to have the tools in place for Common Core. She notes $1.25 billion in state funding was provided to local school districts to implement Common Core. She notes Common Core helping all students speak, read, and write English. She says there is support from all statewide education leaders. She says there is support from business and the four state higher education systems (Community Colleges, CSU, UC, and AICCU).

Opponent Zev Wurman decries math being pushed later with Algebra I being moved to high school. He is concerned that Common Core “squashes the top rather than raising the bottom.” He notes that Common Core delayed algebra by a year compared to previous California standards. He expresses concern about minority and disadvantaged students falling further behind because of Common Core. He is concerned that while middle school students are held accountable for learning standards, but not high school students.

Opponent Sandra Stotsky notes she voted against the Common Core Standards when she was on the Common Core Validation Committee. She was concerned then (and remains concerned now) that the standards are not benchmarked to international standards. She was concerned then (and remains concerned now) that Common Core asks students to both write an objective summary and do an interpretation of the meaning of a text without examining the breadth of literature that led to it. She was concerned then (and remains concerned now) that some of the standards were created without any research.

Opponent James Milgram was on the Common Core Validation Committee and notes China’s math standards far surpass those of Common Core. He says the 1992 standards created a disaster in California and that Common Core seems to be a repeat of 1992. He said only one member of the Common Core Validation Committee on math had experience writing standards, and that one person had written disastrous standards in the past. He notes the Common Core standards were adopted without the validation committee or research based information.

Opponent Karen Effrem states the Common Core standards are academically inferior. She notes one architect of the Common Core standards called them inadequate and another called himself unqualified. She says Bill Gates says we won’t know if they work for ten years. She criticizes Common Core requiring small children to reason abstractly when that is not developed in children’s brains until at least 3rd grade. She criticizes requiring children to solve math problems numerous ways instead of the simplest way. She says psychologists and early childhood experts have said that Common Core standards are developmentally inappropriate.

OCBE Trustee Linda Lindholm praises all the panelists and thanks everyone for their perspectives. She thanks teachers and school staff for their work. She asks McCallum about the numerous ways to do math and parental concerns about them.

McCallum supports children working with their parents on homework, but students need to do the work themsleves. He says the numerous ways to do math are a way for students to understand math more comprehensively. He says early assignments are overeager or not following Common Core standards.

OCBE Trustee Jack Bedell expresses concern that his grandson is able to solve math problems with 100% accuracy in traditional means but only 40% using Common Core.

McCallum says having multiple methods available is not the same as requiring every method be used. He believes there is a misinterpretation of the standards.

Bedell asks if this is a federal Obamacare-style imposition on local schools.

Stotsky says several of the test are federally imposed. She points to admissions from professors who stated this was a national Washington effort.

Wurman calls Common Core a federal Washington based program.

Brown says the states have adopted this on their own.

Effrem notes that most states signed an agreement not to alter more than 15% of the curricular material.

Stotsky notes the standards are forced across the country and cannot be amended.

OCBE President Dr. Ken Williams asks Stotsky to elaborate on the inability to amend the standards.

Stotsky says the standards were developed by two Washington, DC-based organizations that copyrighted Common Core and that the standards cannot be amended without violating the copyrights.

Williams asks if California took copyrighted material and created its own standards from them.

Milgram says the tests are still held by the copyright holders, and the standards on the test govern Common Core.

OCBE Trustee Robert Hammond asks a constituent’s question that numerous educational leaders and mathematical societies have endorsed the Common Core standards.

Milgram says that while the leaders of these societies individually wrote letters of support if Common Core achieves what it promises but that the societies did not endorse the standards.

Hammond asks if Common Core will help minority and disadvantaged students.

Solomon says the critical thinking skills taught by Common Core will assist these students in the workforce.

Wurman states that lowering the algebra standards will only harm these students.

Hammond asks if popular perception of Common Core being an experiment on children is reasonable.

Stotsky says there were longstanding Massachusetts standards that have boosted their students to the top and that these were former California standards. She says there is no need for the Common Core experiment.

OCBE Trustee David Boyd asks if there was ever a time when there was national agreement on standards.

Stotsky points to 1890 when the Ivy Leagues formed the College Board.

Boyd asks why Bill Gates has to be vilified and whether his organization is evil.

Stotsky responds the question is whether the Gates Foundation is qualified.

Boyd calls it a healthy debate and is glad the opponents were not excluded from the committee by the proponents.

Stotsky replied they tried.

Wurman says the creators had good intentions but these lower standards will harm student learning.

Boyd asks Effrem about her accusations of data mining.

Effrem says the Common Core standards themselves have nothing to do with data mining, but the Common Core tests are where the data mining is occuring.

Boyd states that the Common Core standards and tests are two different issued.

Effrem responds that the standards cannot function without the tests.

Intermission begins at 8:04 PM.

The hearing resumes at 8:17 PM.

Lindholm asks about the spending on the tests for Common Core. One test is $1 billion while another is $2.46 billion.

Effrem says switching tests cost Florida $220 million plus another $5 million for sample questions from Utah. She is concerned about the AIR contract.

Wurman notes the old California tests cost $20 per student. He says testing under Common Core will cost three times as much. He says the test tries to measure process instead of the right answer.

Brown and Wurman get into a slight cross exchange.

McCallum says AIR is designing the platform not the questions which come from numerous sources, including both teachers and testing companied.

Lindholm expresses concern about California’s low academic rankings and how to address them.

Wurman argues when adjusting for socioeconomic factors, California is the back of the middle of the pack.

Bedell says the OCBE voted 3-2 for Common Core material for the unique special education kids OCBE teaches. He asks what would have happened had the OCBE refused to adopt that.

Wurman says Sacramento would have screamed but there would have been no actual consequences. He says it was part of local authority.

Williams asks how does Common Core affect people. He has 14 affidavits from teachers and parents who have given examples of negative impacts they have suffered from Common Core. He also asks if the Gates Foundation has given any money to Brown’s nonprofit to promote Common Core.

Brown says they receive money from many sources including Gates.

Williams repeats his question if she received money from the Gates Foundation to promote Common Core.

Brown says yes.

Williams asks Wurman about his comments on the math standards.

Wurman discusses how the old standards helped improve the performance of California students.

Williams asks how California can get to where Massachusetts is on education.

Stotsky says the prior standards need to be restored in order to achieve the levels that Massachusetts students are reaching.

Williams asks about the data mining.

Effrem points to her 22 page report. She also says the Family Education Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA) has been gutted to allow any tangentially related organization to get student data.

Williams asks how can the OCBE stop the data mining.

Wurman says the only way is to stop using the Common Core consortium tests. Otherwise, the information goes to Washington.

Hammond asks about online testing in Common Core.

Brown says the new technology will help better assess the students.

Hammond asks when Common Core was adopted.

Three of the experts said June 2010.

Hammond asks when were the tests internationally benchmarked.

McCallum said the standards from several states and several Asian countries were used. He noted those standards frequently didn’t agree.

Milgram says technically, international standards were looked at, and the Common Core standards match them but are two years behind.

Stotsky says they are not really standards but skills instead, so they cannot be internationally benchmarked because everyone has these skills.

Hammond asks if the Common Core standards are in violation of State Education Code requiring international benchmarking based on what Stotsky said.

Grove says there are multiple definitions of benchmarking.

McCallum disputes that the standards are two years behind.

Boyd asks if any of the panelists have ever served on a school board. He notes that Hugh Hewitt wanted the OCBE to file a federal lawsuit to overturn Common Core. He says that would have cost $800,000 to $1,000,000.

Stotsky says that the local OCBE can set high standards without needing to sue the federal government. If the state attempted to withhold money, then she says OCBE could sue the state government.

Wurman says there have been successful lawsuits against the federal government for overreach.

The panelists now give their closing remarks.

Proponent Solomon says employment requiring STEM will increase by a quarter by 2020. These jobs earn more money. These jobs do not necessarily require college degrees. There are not enough people to fill these posts. He says math is a universal language that helps real world experiences. He says Common Core math is like remodeling an outdated house while keeping what is good. He says there is temporary inconvenience but long term benefit.

McCallum says that standards are the baseline for students. He says there need to be standards even if the federal government went away. He says Common Core is an agreement among states. He says Common Core started with state school chief officers in 2007. The National Governors Association joined in 2009. He says while he helped write the Common Core standards, he never spoke with a representative of the federal government or the Gates Foundation. He spoke of teachers providing feedback. He spoke of receiving 10,000 public comments while drafting the Common Core standards. He found California feedback helpful, such as moving multiplication tables from 4th grade to 3rd grade. He says a depth not breadth approach is used in other countries and Common Core seeks to do that. He says Common Core is a long overdue promise to children and are an historic agreement among states.

Grove says he applied for three Gates Foundation grants and got rejected on all three. He says the assessment discussion focused more on data mining. He says the real data used are data teachers gather daily in the classroom. He says the assessment data came too late for teachers in 2010. He says the 2014 data has a lot more support to ensure students benefit and more data is available to teachers to help improve student performance. He says Common Core is an opportunity for schools and students going into college or the workforce. He says something has to be done because students are not ready for college or the workforce. He says higher education in California has embraced Common Core.

Brown says there is bipartisan support for Common Core from hundreds of groups and policymakers. She appreciates that diverse viewpoints were represented. She says California is significantly changing its education standards. She says there is more local control of funding. She says supporting teachers is critical.

Opponent Wurman says Common Core is behind on algebra. He says 4-5 studies noted that Common Core is behind. He considers Common Core smoke and mirrors. He says there used to be algebra in 8th grade, but Common Core has forced it to 9th grade. He says Common Core’s 8th grade curriculum might match the old 7th grade curriculum in California. He says Common Core is supposed to consist of standards but is full of pedagogy. He says the Common Core tests require too much guessing. He says disadvantaged students will be most damaged by Common Core’s math delay. He points to multiple school districts where students taking advanced math has fallen precipitously since Common Core. He points out that California’s K-8 standards were actually more focused before Common Core. He points to Stanford Education Professor Linda Darling-Hammond stating she would oppose Common Core if she had a say.

Stotsky said content knowledge is proven from her experience on national education boards. She is not opposed to national standards nut simply finds Common Core to be a poor standard. She says the literature standards are not rigorous and not benchmarked against other English-speaking countries. She says reading literature is how to develop analytical skills, and this is reduced by Common Core. She says there is a mix of skills and pedagogy in Common Core. She says that Common Core uses content-free skills that could apply to the Three Little Pigs as well as Moby Dick. She says the writing standards are developmentally inappropriate. She notes students are now getting excerpts of literary works rather than whole pieces of literature. She urges the OCBE to adopt the old standards from before Common Core. She urges hiring teachers who taught before Common Core.

Milgram speaks of his time on the Common Core Validation Committee. At first, there was a path to calculus, which he supported. The final version of the standards stop at Algebra II. He says there is only a 33% chance that college freshmen whose high school education stopped at Algebra II will graduate with a degree. He said for students majoring in STEM, it falls to just 2%. He notes high achieving countries start Algebra I in 7th grade, yet Common Core starts it in 9th grade. He makes that clear that Common Core math is two years behind. He says the claims that UC, CSU, AICCU, and community college leaders signed a letter saying if Common Core will deliver what it promises, they would support it. It didn’t say they supported it.

Effrem says the Giselle Child Development Institute, child development experts, and psychologists have expressed that Common Core is developmentally inappropriate. She questions how Common Core’s computer-adaptive testing is compatible with uniform standards and comparisons. She says AIR is involved with the Social Genome data mining effort.

Chidester thanks all the panelists.

Williams thanks staff, panelists, and public for their participation and adjourns at 9:37 PM.

Posted in Uncategorized | 4 Comments »

Measure J Bond Still Short of 55%, Contrary to OC Numbers – Everyone Forgets LA

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 14, 2014

In the latest numbers from the Orange County Registrar of Voters, Measure J has 55.1%, appearing to break the necessary 55% for the half-billion dollar bond to pass.  Supporters rejoiced and opponents despaired.

J-North Orange County Community College District,
Fullerton/Cypress Colleges Bond Measure
Completed Precincts: 522 of 522
Vote Count Percentage
Bonds – Yes 82,060 55.1%
Bonds – No 66,968 44.9%
 

Both have responded prematurely.  Here’s why:

NO ORANGE CO COMM COLL SP MEASURE J
Los Angeles County Results Only

Measure J Votes Percent
COLLEGE IMPROVEMENT BONDS
YES 1,790 51.44
NO 1,690 48.56
Registration 11,729
Precincts Reporting* 16
Total Precincts 16
% Precincts Reporting 100

Despite being named the North Orange County Community College District, part of the district is in LA County.  Even the Orange County Register forgot.

While Orange County has given daily updates, LA County hasn’t updated since Monday.  Measure J supporters and opponents will be left waiting for LA County to find out the fate of that bond.

Here are what the numbers look like when combining Orange and LA County:

Measure J Votes Percent
Yes 83,850 54.98%
No 68,658 45.02%

With Orange County nearly done counting (if not today, certainly by Monday), LA County is going to determine the fate of Measure J.

Here’s how the district broke down.

Here are the cities where Measure J broke 55%:

City Yes No
Stanton 2247 65.88% 1164 34.12%
Orange 13 65.00% 7 35.00%
Anaheim 19593 60.48% 12802 39.52%
Buena Park 6918 59.03% 4801 40.97%
Garden Grove 2761 58.60% 1951 41.40%
Los Alamitos 1342 57.16% 1006 42.84%
Seal Beach 1262 55.72% 1003 44.28%
La Habra 4493 55.29% 3633 44.71%
 

Here are the cities and unincorporated areas where Measure J failed to break 55% (I’d note Yorba Linda outright voted against Measure J, with 55.52% against the Measure, unlike in the other areas where Measure J fell short of the 55% supermajority but still broke 50%, though Rossmoor is virtually dead even):

City/Area Yes No
Unincorporated OC (Excluding Rossmoor) 1580 54.67% 1310 45.33%
Fullerton 14059 54.60% 11692 45.40%
Placentia 5549 54.35% 4660 45.65%
La Palma 1789 53.50% 1555 46.50%
Cypress 5615 52.59% 5061 47.41%
Brea 4992 52.59% 4500 47.41%
Los Angeles County 1790 51.44% 1690 48.56%
Rossmoor 1744 50.49% 1710 49.51%
Yorba Linda 8103 44.48% 10113 55.52%

Posted in North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

Less than 0.5%: OC’s Seven Closest Races

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 7, 2014

While most candidates have figured out whether they’ve won or lost, there’s a handful who are still waiting for provisionals and late absentees to see whether they’ve won or lost.

Orange County’s three biggest City Council races are all ending in nailbiters.

In Anaheim, School Board Member James D. Vanderbilt leads incumbent Gail Eastman by 705 votes (0.5%).  Vanderbilt was backed by Mayor Tom Tait while Eastman was part of the anti-Tait majority.  Should Vanderbilt hang on to his lead, the Council 4-1 supermajority will shrink to a 3-2 majority.

CITY OF ANAHEIM Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 147 of 147
Vote Count Percentage
* KRIS MURRAY 13,231 21.2%
JAMES D. VANDERBILT 12,591 20.2%
* GAIL EASTMAN 12,286 19.7%
JOSE F. MORENO (1) 8,460 13.6%
DOUG PETTIBONE 5,971 9.6%
JERRY O’KEEFE 5,160 8.3%
DONNA MICHELLE ACEVEDO 2,445 3.9%
JOSE MORENO (2) 2,131 3.4%
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

 

In Costa Mesa, incumbent Jim Righeimer is clinging to a 112-vote lead (0.4%) over Jay Humphrey.  Righeimer is the leader of the 3-2 conservative majority.  Democrat Katrina Foley replaces termed out Councilwoman Wendy Leece as a member of the Council minority with Councilwoman Sandy Genis.  If Humphrey overtakes Righeimer, the Council majority will switch from the conservatives to the liberals.

CITY OF COSTA MESA Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 70 of 70
Vote Count Percentage
KATRINA FOLEY 7,154 26.3%
* JIM RIGHEIMER 5,851 21.5%
JAY HUMPHREY 5,739 21.1%
LEE RAMOS 4,042 14.9%
TONY CAPITELLI 1,454 5.4%
AL MELONE 1,156 4.3%
RITA LOUISE SIMPSON 940 3.5%
CHRISTOPHER SCOTT BUNYAN 826 3.0%
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

 

In Irvine, what is clear is that the Republicans have maintained their majority, the Council’s longtime Democrat power-broker Larry Agran is gone, and women comprise the majority of the Irvine City Council (Republican Christina Shea, Republican Lynn Schott, and Democrat Beth Krom).  The question now is whether there will be a 3-2 Republican majority or 4-1 Republican supermajority.  This all hinges on whether Republican Councilman Jeff Lalloway can hang on to his 256-vote (0.4%) lead over Democrat Melissa Fox (even Lynn Schott only has a 309-vote lead of 0.5% over Fox).

CITY OF IRVINE Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 109 of 109
Vote Count Percentage
LYNN SCHOTT 12,964 23.0%
* JEFFREY LALLOWAY 12,911 22.9%
MELISSA FOX 12,655 22.5%
* LARRY AGRAN 11,022 19.6%
EVAN CHEMERS 6,792 12.1%
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

 

In Dana Point, Joe Muller leads Jody Payne by just 39 votes (0.2%).  There are no incumbents because Councilman Bill Brough was elected to the Assembly, Councilwoman Lisa Bartlett was elected to the Board of Supervisors, and Councilman Steve Weinberg retired due to term limits.

CITY OF DANA POINT Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 30 of 30
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN TOMLINSON 2,747 13.4%
RICHARD A. VICZOREK 2,656 13.0%
JOE MULLER 2,570 12.6%
JODY PAYNE 2,531 12.4%
ALAN WICKSTROM 2,524 12.3%
NANCY JENKINS 2,315 11.3%
HAROLD R. KAUFMAN 2,056 10.1%
ROY “RYAN” DIVEL IV 1,649 8.1%
CHUCK RATHBONE 1,397 6.8%
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

 

In Laguna Woods, Rae C. Tso wields a narrow 23-vote (0.2%) lead over Carol A. Moore.

CITY OF LAGUNA WOODS Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 16 of 16
Vote Count Percentage
* BERT HACK 3,197 25.4%
RAE C. TSO 2,770 22.0%
CAROL A. MOORE 2,747 21.8%
AL RODDAN 1,361 10.8%
MARK L. MONIN 1,284 10.2%
DAVID RUSSELL OHRN 1,236 9.8%
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

 

In the Santa Ana Unified School District, poor Valerie Amezcua is in another nailbiter.  She was just 536 votes (0.7%) short of winning a seat in 2012.  In 2014, Amezcua is clinging to a 141-vote (0.5%) lead.  I’m sure she prefers the 2014 result over the 2012 result, but clearly, the week after the election is becoming an extra stressful family tradition in the Amezcua household.  (On a sidenote, MIke Dalati, who came in fourth for Auditor-Controller in June, came in 8th out of 8 in his race for Santa Ana Unified School District.  His fiancee is Karina Onofre, the Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-Democrat who lost a Santa Ana City Council race as a Republican and the 74th Assembly District, switching parties after she had taken out papers to run for the Assembly as a Republican but filing the Assembly candidacy paperwork as a Democrat.)

SANTA ANA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 2
Completed Precincts: 92 of 92
Vote Count Percentage
* JOHN PALACIO 7,193 25.5%
VALERIE AMEZCUA 3,953 14.0%
SHUNTELE ANDREWS 3,812 13.5%
RIGO RODRIGUEZ 3,470 12.3%
ANGIE ROSARIO CANO 3,027 10.7%
CECILIA AGUINAGA 2,444 8.7%
EVERLENA OLIVER 2,189 7.8%
MIKE DALATI 2,121 7.5%
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

 

In the Fountain Valley School District, Jim Cunneen leads Gary Stine by 107 votes (0.4%).  Assuming his lead holds, Cunneen seems to be a consistent third-place finisher in FVSD, having come in third in 2012, but unfortunately for him, only two seats were up then.  He is breathing a sigh of relief that there are three seats up this time.

FOUNTAIN VALLEY SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 31 of 31
Vote Count Percentage
* SANDRA CRANDALL 7,801 31.4%
LISA SCHULTZ 6,478 26.1%
JIM CUNNEEN 5,340 21.5%
GARY STINE 5,233 21.1%
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

 

Sidenotes (Five races with small, but not quite as close, leads)

In close, but probably done, are races where the lead is more than 0.5% but does not exceed 1.0%.

In Lake Forest, it’s clear that incumbents David Bass and Kathryn McCullough have been defeated.  Drew Hamilton leads Thomas Cagley by 303 votes (0.9%).  Hamilton had been Councilman Dwight Robinson’s first choice to fill the vacancy left by Councilman Peter Herzog’s resignation.  Bass had been Voigts’s first choice.  Jim Gardner who is second place and has won a seat on the Council was Councilman Adam Nick’s first choice.  On Tuesday, Nick was defeated in his legal carpetbagging bid for the 46th Congressional District, a place that does not include Lake Forest.

CITY OF LAKE FOREST Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 54 of 54

* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

Vote Count Percentage
* SCOTT VOIGTS 5,397 16.0%
JIM GARDNER 5,023 14.9%
ANDREW “DREW” HAMILTON 4,837 14.4%
THOMAS CAGLEY 4,534 13.5%
* DAVID A. BASS 4,320 12.8%
LIZ MILLER 3,913 11.6%
* KATHRYN (KATHY) MCCULLOUGH 3,563 10.6%
MIKE HEALEY 2,063 6.1%

 

In a battle of two former Centralia Board Members trying to get back on the Board, Art Montez leads Kevin Sequeira by 98 votes (0.7%).  Shockingly, sitting incumbent Irv Trinkle came in dead last.

Connor Traut, the second coming of Jordan Brandman in every way, came in first.  La Palma Councilman Henry Charoen, who bowed out of the 65th Assembly District race for Young Kim, came in second.

CENTRALIA SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 36 of 36
Vote Count Percentage
CONNOR TRAUT 4,065 25.4%
HENRY CHAROEN 3,335 20.8%
ART MONTEZ 3,129 19.6%
KEVIN SEQUEIRA 3,031 18.9%
* IRV TRINKLE 2,440 15.3%
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

 

In the La Habra City School District, Cynthia Aguirre leads Kevin M. Jacobson by 122 votes (1.0%) in a race where voters had to replace 3 sitting incumbents when no incumbent sought re-election.

LA HABRA CITY SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 31 of 31
Vote Count Percentage
IDA MACMURRAY 2,817 22.1%
OFELIA CORONA HANSON 2,774 21.8%
CYNTHIA AGUIRRE 2,673 21.0%
KEVIN M. JACOBSON 2,551 20.0%
SUZETTE ORNELAS-MEDINA 1,913 15.0%
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

 

In the Ocean View School District, Joseph A. Gaglione leads incumbent Tracy Pellman by 261 votes (0.6%).  In OVSD, the teacher’s union openly backed Gaglione and Jack C. Souders.  Incumbent Republicans Pellman and John Briscoe accused each other of being the union’s secret third candidate.

OCEAN VIEW SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 53 of 53
Vote Count Percentage
JACK C. SOUDERS 8,867 22.2%
* JOHN BRISCOE 7,528 18.8%
JOSEPH A. GAGLIONE 6,926 17.3%
* TRACY PELLMAN 6,665 16.7%
NORM WESTWELL 5,482 13.7%
* JOHN R. ORTIZ 4,495 11.2%
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

 

Finally in the East Orange County Water District, incumbent Director Sy Everett has a 190-vote (0.8%) lead over former Director Douglas M. Chapman in the latter’s comeback bid.  OC Political readers may remember Chapman for his effort to run for two offices simultaneously, by seeking re-election to the East Orange County Water District while also challenging incumbent Denis Bilodeau for the Orange County Water District, which left him with neither office when his dual office-seeking drew former Tustin Mayor Doug Davert into the East Orange County Water District race.  Bilodeau won re-election and Davert unseated Chapman.

EAST ORANGE COUNTY WATER DISTRICT Director
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 56 of 56
Vote Count Percentage
* RICHARD B. BELL 6,518 28.0%
* JOHN T. DULEBOHN 5,718 24.6%
* SEYMOUR “SY” EVERETT 5,610 24.1%
DOUGLAS M. CHAPMAN 5,420 23.3%
* Indicates Incumbent Candidate, if any

 

Posted in Anaheim, Centralia School District, Costa Mesa, Dana Point, East Orange County Water District, Fountain Valley School District, Irvine, La Habra City School District, Laguna Woods, Lake Forest, Ocean View School District, Santa Ana Unified School District | 1 Comment »

OC’s Top 10 Election Stories

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 5, 2014

Last night was definitely a big night in OC politics.  Here are the top 10 stories:

#1. “Year of the Asian Woman” for OC Republicans – Republican Asian women dominated the electoral landscape last night.  I can demonstrate that with one simple photostrip of winners:

Year of the Asian Woman - 2014

The women in that photostrip are:

  • State Senator-Elect Janet Nguyen
  • State Assemblywoman-Elect Young Kim
  • State Assemblywoman-Elect Ling-Ling Chang
  • OC Supervisor-Elect Michelle Steel
  • OC Supervisor-Elect Lisa Bartlett
  • Yorba Linda Councilwoman-Elect Peggy Huang
  • Cypress School Board Member-Elect Sandra Lee
  • OC Water District Director-Elect Dina Nguyen

These candidates not only won their elections, but seven of the eight won in commanding fashion:

  • Janet Nguyen won 60% of the vote against former Assemblyman Jose Solorio in the most competitive Senate seat in the state.
  • Young Kim defeated incumbent Sharon Quirk-Silva 56%-44% in one of the most competitive Assembly seats in the state.
  • Ling-Ling Chang won 64% of the vote after coming through a grueling primary.
  • Michelle Steel won 62% of the vote in a Supervisorial runoff against Assemblyman Allan Mansoor.
  • Lisa Bartlett won 55% of the vote in a Supervisorial runoff against Laguna Niguel Councilman Robert Ming.
  • Peggy Huang came in first in a six-person field, even coming in ahead of her re-elected incumbent running mate, Tom Lindsey.
  • Sandra Lee came in first in a four-person field, far outpacing three other candidates, who consisted of two incumbents and a former Mayor.
  • Dina Nguyen was the only one with a close race, winning by 45.8%-42.1% in a three-way race for Orange County Water District.

The only Republican Asian woman who lost in Orange County last night was Westminster School Board candidate Bao Anh “Samantha” Nguyen.  (Garden Grove City Council candidate Ruhina Khan is a Democrat.  Laguna Woods City Council candidate Rae Tso and Fullerton Joint Union High School Board candidate Ho Jeong Lim are both NPP.  Republican Cypress School Board Member-Elect Lydia Sondhi is not Asian; Sondhi is her married name.)

#1A. Janet Nguyen and Young Kim Capture OC Swing Seats to Break Democratic Supermajorities – Of the Republican Asian women who won last night, clearly Janet Nguyen and Young Kim’s victories were the biggest stories, as they each struck a blow to the supermajorities held by Democrats in the Senate and in the Assembly.

Janet Nguyen’s 60%-40% victory was so sweeping that she won 8 of the 10 cities in SD-34, losing only Anaheim and Santa Ana (she even won Long Beach).

Young Kim’s 56%-44% victory was so sweeping that she won 5 of the 6 cities in AD-65, losing only Stanton.  Kim is the first Republican challenger to unseat an incumbent Democrat in a legislative race in 20 years.

#1B. Michelle Steel and Lisa Bartlett to Join Board of Supervisors – Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel was widely expected to win the 2nd District Supervisor’s race after crushing Assemblyman Allan Mansoor by 25% in June and almost avoiding a run-off.  She ended up beating Mansoor by 24% in the November run-off yesterday.  Steel’s landslide victory was so strong that she carried every city in the district, including Costa Mesa, where Mansoor had served on City Council and as Mayor; she also won Mansoor’s 74th Assembly District.

Dana Point Mayor Lisa Bartlett was in the toss-up in the 5th District Supervisor’s race after coming in just 2% behind Laguna Niguel Councilman Robert Ming in June.  She ended up beating Ming by 10% in the November run-off yesterday.  Bartlett’s victory was so sweeping that she won every city in the district, except Lyndon Johnson Laguna Niguel (I have no idea why I typed Lyndon Johnson; it was clearly a long election night).

This marks the second time two women will be serving on the Board of Supervisors concurrently (the first time is actually the present day wherein Supervisors Janet Nguyen and Pat Bates are serving concurrently).  This is the first time two Asian Americans will serve concurrently on the Board of Supervisors.

#2 AD-74: Matt Harper Defeats Keith Curry, Even Winning Newport Beach – With independent expenditures helping Huntington Beach Mayor Matt Harper overcome Newport Beach Councilman Keith Curry’s massive fundraising advantage, Harper won by 18% yesterday after coming in 3% behind Curry in June.  Harper’s victory was so sweeping that he won 5 of the 6 cities in AD-74, losing only Laguna Woods. To add insult to injury for Curry, Harper even won 55% of the vote in Newport Beach.

#3 Major Changes in Anaheim – Voters in the County’s biggest city cast their ballots on a number of meaty issues.  First, 68% of Anaheim voters approved switching from the current at-large Council election system to a vote-by-district system.  53% of Anaheim voters approved increasing the size of the Council from 5 to 7 (Mayor and 6 Council members).

Anaheim Mayor Tom Tait was easily re-elected, with 54.1% of the vote in a four-way race, outpacing the nearest candidate. Tait ally James Vanderbilt appears to have defeated Anaheim Councilwoman Gail Eastman, thereby shrinking the 4-1 majority against Tait to a 3-2 majority instead.

#4 Irvine Forms Republican Supermajority, Ousting Larry Agran – In a sweeping victory, Republicans won every seat on yesterday’s ballot for Irvine City Council.  Mayor Steven Choi was re-elected.  Council candidate Lynn Schott came in first, and Councilman Jeff Lalloway came in second place to win re-election.  Democrat Larry Agran, who lost control of the Council majority in 2012, found himself in fourth place, falling behind even his own ally Melissa Fox, who fell 0.4% short of winning a Council seat.  Republicans now wield a 4-1 supermajority in Irvine.

#5 Republicans Take Huntington Beach – In another sweeping victory, Republicans swept all four seats available on the Huntington Beach City Council, unseating incumbent Democrats Joe Shaw and Connie Boardman.  (The other two seats are held by termed-out Republican Joe Carchio and Assemblyman-Elect Matt Harper.)  This sweep replaces the liberal majority with a conservative majority on the Huntington Beach City Council.

In the Huntington Beach City Attorney’s race, conservative Republican Michael Gates unseated Republican incumbent Jennifer McGrath.

#6 Yorba Linda Supermajority Against YLRRR – In yet another sweeping victory, the slate of Peggy Huang and Tom Lindsey won both seats on the ballot in Yorba Linda.  For the first time since it began fielding candidates in 2006, Yorba Linda Residents for Responsible Representation failed to win any Council seats in an election.  YLRRR held a Council majority from 2008-2012 and even held a supermajority from 2010-2012.  YLRRR has a pesky habit of turning on the people they formerly supported (no fewer than three Councilmembers backed by YLRRR over the past eight years found themselves targeted for defeat by YLRRR).

With YLRRR-backed Councilmen Mark Schwing and John Anderson, YLRRR found themselves one seat short of a majority this year.  They launched an ambitious recall bid to try to gain a Council supermajority.  With the October recall defeated by the voters, the November re-election of Tom Lindsey, and the November election of Peggy Huang (see story 1 above) to replace the retiring John Anderson, YLRRR’s ambitious bid for a 4-1 supermajority in 2014 has ended with them on the losing end of a 4-1 supermajority, with only Schwing in office.  This could well spell the beginning of the end for YLRRR.

#7 Newport Beach Clean Sweep – In one more sweeping victory (anyone notice a recurring theme in these stories?), the slate of Duffy Duffield (of Duffy Boat fame), Kevin Muldoon, and Scott Peotter captured the three contested Newport Beach City Council seats (Diane Dixon won the uncontested District 1 seat).  In the District 3 seat, Duffield even managed to unseat Mayor Rush Hill by a stunning 2-1 margin.  Duffield, Muldoon, and Peotter pledged to bring fiscal responsibility to Newport Beach City government, opposing the dock tax and expensive new City Hall.

#8 Rancho Santa Margarita Eliminates Council Minority – In possibly the County’s most sweeping victory, the two-man Rancho Santa Margarita Council minority has been eliminated.  Majority Councilmembers Tony Beall and Carol Gamble were not on the ballot this year.  Three seats were on the ballot this year.  Majority Councilmember Brad McGirr was re-elected.  Candidates Jerry Holloway (himself a former Councilmember) and Mike Vaughn were elected to replace minority Councilmembers Steve Baric and Jesse Petrilla.  Baric was simply retiring and was not seeking a second term.  Petrilla (who had run unsuccessfully for the Assembly in June, coming in second among Republicans to Beall-backed Bill Brough) was running for re-election but ended up 3.7% behind third-place Vaughn who captured the last Council seat.  Additionally, voters rejected Measure Z, an initiative to change the zoning classification of Rancho Santa Margarita’s former Nissan site, by a margin of 54%-46%.  The Council minority had supported Measure Z while the Council majority opposed it.  The newly elected candidates both opposed Measure Z.  As with Anaheim, Newport Beach, and Yorba Linda, the majority and minority members on this year’s ballot are all Republicans.

#9 Unions Strengthen Grip on Capistrano Unified School District and Ocean View School District – In a rare liberal sweeping victory in Orange County, the teachers’ union won all three seats on the ballot in the Capistrano Unified School District, growing their 5-2 supermajority into a 6-1 supermajority, leaving Jim Reardon as the sole trustee to oppose the teachers’ union.  Union-backed Martha McNicholas defeated OC Political blogger Craig Alexander for the Trustee Area 4 seat being vacated by the retiring Anna Bryson.  Union-backed incumbent Lynn Hatton beat back a challenge by Julie Collier in Trustee Area 7.  Most surprisingly, in Trustee Area 6, union-backed Gila Jones unseated incumbent Ellen Addonizio, and Jones won by a larger margin than McNicholas or Hatton did.  (Jones was the Democrat who ran against Republican State Senator Mark Wyland in 2010.)

In the Ocean View School District, union-backed Jack Souders and Joseph Gaglione won two of the three seats up for election this year, unseating incumbents Tracy Pellman and John Ortiz.  While Souders and Gaglione were openly backed by the union, Pellman and incumbent John Briscoe (who won the other seat up for election) each accused the other of being secretly backed by the union.

#10 Claude Parrish Unseats Assessor Webster Guillory – In only the second time in the last half-century, a sitting Countywide elected official has been defeated for re-election.  With controversies over his nomination signature collection and three felony charges from the District Attorney related to the nomination signature collection, incumbent Webster Guillory was unable to survive a challenge from former Board of Equalization Member Claude Parrish.  Guillory had defeated Parrish 53%-47% in 2010.  In this 2014 rematch, Parrish defeated Guillory by the same 53%-47% margin.  (The last time a Countywide elected official lost a re-election bid was when John Dean unseated six-term incumbent County Superintendent of Schools Robert Peterson in 1990.  No one else has lost since at least the mid-1960s.)  With Republican Parrish replacing NPP Guillory as Assessor and Republican Eric Woolery replacing Democrat Jan Grimes as Auditor-Controller, Republicans will hold every Countywide office for the first time in recent memory.

Honorable Mention: Special Elections on the Way – With the elections of Supervisor Janet Nguyen to the State Senate and State Senator Mimi Walters to Congress, there will now be a flurry of special elections.  Early in 2015, special elections will need to be held to fill the remaining two years on Nguyen’s Supervisorial term and Walters’s Senate term.  In the likely event that an Assemblymember wins the race to replace Walters, another special election will be triggered in mid-2015 to fill the Assembly seat.

Honorable Mention: City Treasurers and Board of Equalization – Two Secret Paths to Power – It’s quite interesting what useful platforms City Treasurer’s seats and Board of Equalization seats can be for gaining other elected offices:

  • November 2010: Huntington Beach City Treasurer Shari Freidenrich elected Orange County Treasurer-Tax Collector, defeating Deputy Treasurer
  • June 2014: Orange City Treasurer Eric Woolery elected Orange County Auditor-Controller, defeating Deputy Auditor-Controller
  • November 2014
    • Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel elected an Orange County Supervisor, defeating Assemblyman
    • Former Board of Equalization Member Claude Parrish elected Orange County Assessor, defeating incumbent
    • Brea City Treasurer Glenn Parker elected a Brea City Councilman, defeating incumbent
    • Placentia City Treasurer Craig Green elected a Placentia City Councilman, defeating incumbent

On a related note, State Controller-Elect Betty Yee is the second consecutive Board of Equalization Member to be elected State Controller. Eight years ago, Board of Equalization Member John Chiang was elected State Controller, and last night, he has been elected State Treasurer.

Honorable Mention: Mimi Walters Elected to Congress – This doesn’t merit reaching the top 10 because it was a foregone conclusion that Senator Mimi Walters would crush Democrat Drew Leavens in the 45th Congressional District.  The real contest was in June when Walters managed to be the top Republican vote-getter and ensured a Democrat made the top two.  The only reason this gets an honorable mention is because of how rare it is to have a new Member of Congress.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 34th Senate District, 45th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 5th Supervisorial District, 65th Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Board of Equalization, Capistrano Unified School District, Cypress School District, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Newport Beach, Ocean View School District, Orange County, Orange County Assessor, Orange County Water District, Rancho Santa Margarita, Yorba Linda | 5 Comments »