OC Political

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Archive for April, 2012

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 46th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 11, 2012

This race always makes me feel like pulling my hair out. We always seem close to having the right factors in place to beat Loretta but can never quite win this seat. I thought for sure when Van Tran ran back in 2010 that we would take it back, but alas we did not.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

Unfortunately things got worse for Republicans in this seat with the redistricting commission making this one a bit more liberal. Democrats hold a 12 point advantage in this district and DTS voters are likely to lean a bit more to the lift than in other parts of Orange County.

Steve Cooley did beat Kamala Harris in the race for Attorney General in this district and Proposition 8 passed by a large margin. However, Democrats do seem to win on a consistent basis here.

Incumbent Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez does make sure to work her district, which does end up getting her votes on election day. She has represented a pretty solid chunk of this district during her tenure in Congress. One advantage for Republicans this time though is that her bank account was wiped out by Kindee Durkee.

Her challengers include:

John J. Cullum a Strategy Manager/Accountant who is running as a Republican.

Pat Garcia an Escrow Company Owner who is running as a Republican.

Jerry Hayden a Local Independent Businessman who is running as a Republican.

Jorge Rocha a Tax Accountant who is running as No Party Preference. This one I find interesting since he sought the CRA endorsement yet was ineligible to receive the CRA endorsement.

The factors at play- Loretta Sanchez is the only Democrat on the ballot, has incumbency on her side, and wields a high amount of Name ID.

Of the 3 Republicans it appears that Jerry Hayden is running the most effective campaign (although it is still early). Hayden also has the best ballot designations of all the challengers. The real question here though is if the Republicans all split the vote amongst each other allowing Jorge Rocha to advance. Hayden does appear willing to pour some serious resources into this campaign though.

Jorge Rocha likely made a very wise decision to run as  (NPP) because he has a decent shot of advancing if the Republicans split the vote evenly. If he can raise enough money to raise his name ID he has a shot. I think he will come close to finishing in the second slot but fall just a bit short.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Loretta Sanchez & Jerry Hayden

Posted in 46th Congressional District | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

David Overtaking Goliath: Pauly Raises More Than Double the Money Spitzer Raised in 2012

Posted by The Rock of OC on April 11, 2012

You read that headline right: Deborah Pauly raised more money than the vaunted Todd Spitzer money machine in 2012.  Not just more, but more than double.

According to the latest campaign finance reports, Spitzer raised $3,100 while Pauly raised $7,578.  That’s right: David raised more than double what Goliath did.

This is a clear sign that the momentum is shifting toward Deborah Pauly.  True conservatives are holding their money back from special-interest Spitzer.  Pauly’s gain in momentum is clearly causing union-supporter Spitzer’s money to dry up.

The donors are beginning to realize that the people don’t want bought and paid career politicians who do the bidding of their masters.   They are tired of Orange County being pillaged by the special interests that suck at the public teat.

The people’s eyes are open, and the donors realize it.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, Fundraising | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 45th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 11, 2012

I already know that I am going to get flack for my prediction in this race since a lot of people have a beef with John Campbell. For the record this is actually the Congressional seat that now represents me, with Anaheim Hills being drawn in by the redistricting commission.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

Republicans have a 17 point advantage in this seat along with a conservative leaning DTS crowd that is just 6 points away from making the Democrats totally irrelevant in this seat. (Democrats 28, DTS 22).

What used to be CD 48 moved a lot further north eliminating Newport Beach and picking up Orange/Anaheim Hills among other changes. This seat is a pretty safe Republican seat on paper despite the fact that Barack Obama came within 4 points of McCain back in 2008.

Incumbent Congressman John Campbell is currently representing a good portion of this district in CD 48. Which will make him the clear front-runner despite a couple of challengers taking him on this election, including another Republican.

His challengers include Sukhee Kang the Mayor of Irvine who is running as a Democrat. This is the second time that a member of the Irvine City Council has run against Campbell after Beth Krom ran back in 2010.

The other challenger is John Webb a Tea Party Republican who opted to run with the (R) next to his name as opposed to (NPP). He is listed as a small business owner on the ballot.

The factors at play- John Campbell is the incumbent and has represented the majority of this district thus boosting his name ID. His ability to send out mail and fund a comprehensive campaign make him the front-runner to finish first on the ballot in June despite the Republican vote being split.

John Webb seems like he is a good guy and he has a backing of some tea party folks behind him. His fundraising numbers just don’t lead me to believe he can get his message out to enough voters to get into the top 2. Had he listed himself as (NPP) on the ballot I think he might have been able to finish ahead of Sukhee Kang.

Sukhee Kang despite being wiped out by Kindee Durkee has name ID in Irvine, which is a good-sized part of CD 45.  He is also the only Democrat on the ballot. Based on his name ID and party affiliation alone I believe that he will advance to November.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

John Campbell & Sukhee Kang

Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: , , | 2 Comments »

Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Petrilla to Deploy to Afghanistan

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 11, 2012

Jesse Petrilla

Jesse Petrilla

On Monday, Assemblyman Jeff Gorell (R-Camarillo), a naval reservist, returned to the State Capitol from Afghanistan, and just one day later (yesterday), Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Jesse Petrilla, a member of the Army National Guard, announced that he is being called to one year of active duty in Afghanistan, effective at the end of this month.

Last year, the Army sent Petrilla to Kentucky for four months to train on commanding a tank platoon.  Councilman Steve Baric wanted to leave Petrilla’s seat vacant during those four months instead of appointing a temporary replacement for Petrilla.  Councilmen Gary Thompson, Tony Beall, and Jerry Holloway wanted to appoint a temporary replacement for Petrilla.

In the midst of this controversy, Thompson resigned citing family health issues.  In the midst of the Thompson resignation, the council then appointed a permanent replacement for Thompson, bringing former Councilwoman Carol Gamble back to the Council.  (Gamble was a member of Rancho Santa Margarita’s inaugural city council until resigning in 2004 to care for her aging parents.)  The process of finding a permanent replacement for Thompson pushed aside the effort of finding a temporary replacement for Petrilla.

Assemblyman Gorell’s seat was held empty for a year until his return from Afghanistan, with little controversy.  In light of the controversy that occurred when the Rancho Santa Margarita City Council considered appointing a 4-month replacement for Petrilla, I think it would be most unlikely that the council would attempt to appoint a year-long replacement for Petrilla, instead leaving the seat empty until his return from Afghanistan.

Here’s Petrilla’s press release: Read the rest of this entry »

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The Plaintive wail of Civility

Posted by Brenda Higgins on April 11, 2012

Disclaimer: I was a candidate for Yorba Linda City Council in 2010. THIS is an opinion piece, intended for entertainment and reality checks. I am an equal opportunity offender, read at your own risk.

I have a great deal of respect for only one of the members of the current city council in Yorba Linda and that is Jim Winder. He has served, and resided in this city for decades. His service has come to us at great personal cost to him. He has been disrespected, unfairly accused and periodically ridiculed without cause. Yet he shows up consistently, is polite, prepared and concerned for the well being of our city. These things can not be said about any of the other council members.

John Anderson’s mean spirit and agenda of personal vendettas has never been well hidden. Nancy Rikel and Mark Schwing answer to and for him. Their public discussions consistently appear unnatural or rehearsed. The clear impression is that they are Anderson’s mouth pieces. They all portray themselves as “fiscal conservatives”, they have given that term a foul sound and connotation. If fiscal conservative means that they only agree to spend money on their pet projects or the pet projects of their friends and supporters, then okay, they are fiscal conservatives. However their pattern of spending would embarrass many a democrat. They vote together, they were elected together, they have each others back in a twisted and dysfunctional way.

The mayor in Yorba Linda is voted in on a traditional rotating basis by the council, generally in order of when they were elected. Not so since Anderson has controlled the council. On each occasion that it would have been the turn of a Council member who was “not-one-of-us”, that council member was stepped over in favor of “one-of-us”. In 2008 that was Jan Horton. As the councilmember next in line, she was passed over in favor of John Anderson. By 2008 Jan had already become the “not-one-of-us” and was on the hit list. She was deprived of the opportunity to be mayor and that also enabled Mr. Anderson to be able to run against her for re-election as Mayor Anderson. In 2012, it was Jim Winder, whose turn it was to be mayor, but Anderson’s majority passed him over in favor of Schwing. Mark Schwing will now be running for re-election as Mayor Schwing. In his last year, after many decades of service to this community, the Anderson lackeys could serve up one final dose of indignity to Jim Winder and deprive him of his last tenure as Mayor. Winder is termed out, and will not run again. All it really accomplished was to confirm that they are pandering jerks.

Tom Lindsey portrays himself as the “true” conservative. That would be highly relevant if any issues of social import or civil rights issue come before the council, but that’s not likely. The majority of Andersons’ council has abandoned Lindsey and he is left to align with the lame duck portion of the council alongside Jim Winder. Lindsey’s view on fiscal or any issue is rendered largely irrelevant,. A difficult lesson to learn for Lindsey, as he aligned with Anderson in the eleventh hour before the 2010 campaign began. They ran as a “slate”. During the 2010 campaign, when questioned about the ugly hit pieces and robo-calls directed towards Jan Horton, both Lindsey and Anderson diverted their eyes from the crowd when they answered. Mr. Anderson’s “I did not write that piece”, may essentially, technically, be true, but it clearly made him uncomfortable to say those carefully chosen words. Lindsey, for whom the 2010 campaign was his second try for a council seat, was intent on being elected. I have not asked him how he’s feeling now in 2012, with 20/20 hindsight, about his 2010 choice to align with Anderson. I have observed him to suffer the same punishment that Jan Horton and then Hank Weeda did. If you run with “them” and then acquire any different view or opinion, you are ostracized. So much for the fantasy that once we’re elected we can have collegial respect for differing view points.

Jan Horton is not a member of the council at this time, but her effect is no less pertinent than those seated. She is a regular attender, proclaiming accountability, tranparency and spewing her point of view of the incompetence and lack of ethics of the current council. The existing situation, with the Anderson wing, disrespectful of Winder, and indignant for Lindsey and his turn coat antics, is smoldering fire anyway. Then Jan shows up and brings the gasoline in the form of her vitriole, her repetitive and shrill allegations, her husband with a camera, and her allies. She shows little in the way of tact and self control and she manages to stoke the flames of contention, discord and animosity on every issue, and at each council appearance or online discussion.

The counterpart to Jan is Ed Rakochy. Unelected, regular attender, but “One-of-us” along with the regular appearance of other YLRRR (Yorba Linda Residents for Responsible Representation) members. The vigilante group that originally got Jan Horton and John Anderson elected, (yes as with any true rivalry, they began and friends and cohorts), has its regular and scripted attenders, commenting favorably on the moves of the Anderson majority, standing on their soap boxes and waving their flags, pretending this is even handed democracy, and proclaiming how ‘fiscally conservative’ the current majority council are.

I have rarely been able to stomach a whole meeting of this circus atmosphere, it’s a charade and not open democratic discourse. The pontification goes on for hours.

I am acquainted in some fashion with each of these individuals who are driving the toxicity in our city government, and this I know. Each and every one of them believes firmly that he/she is doing the “right thing” for the city. My opinion and observation is that they are each blinded by their own adrenaline rush from this ongoing combat. The salient point that they keep missing, is that the majority of the residents of the city are not “one-of-us”, and are also not the constantly contentious “one-of-them”. I don’t see any of these regular players stepping away from their entrenched positions long enough to have a healthy discussion on points upon which they might actually agree.

This is not good for anyone. This is not good for our city. I can only hope that voters refuse to get caught up in the rhetoric, that good and independent, unaligned candidates step forward in the next election. Politics is like square dancing, if you get too attached to your partner or your moves, you’ll eventually step on your own toes and get kicked out of the dance. We can only hope.

 

 

 

 

Posted in Yorba Linda | Tagged: , , , , | 8 Comments »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 39th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 10, 2012

UPDATED 2:45 PM With Explanation.

Many may be asking the question as to why we are handicapping this race along with CD 38, since they are not considered to be in play. I simply retort that we will cover every race no matter how one-sided over the next few weeks.

Once again thank you to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website as they are extremely informative in showing exactly what each district covers.

Republicans have 10 point advantage in this seat although DTS voters are likely to lean a bit more conservative in this district.  Republican won every major race in this seat back in both 2010 and 2008.

With the addition of a large chunk of Los Angeles County and all of Chino Hills I expect to see some pretty heavy campaigning from the Ed Royce who does not have the high level of name ID in these portions of his new district.

As stated before, the Incumbent is Congressman Ed Royce a solid Republican who has been a consistently good vote during his tenure. I pick on him a bit because I believe he now owns Red County, but he is actually a really nice person if you ever interact with him in public.

His challengers include D’ Marie Mulattieri a Community Volunteer from Orange. She is listed as running with No Party Preference on the ballot.

The other challenger is Jay Chen a Businessmann/School Boardmember who is not in the Orange County portion of the district. He is listed as a Democrat on the ballot.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Ed Royce & Jay Chen

The factors at play- As noted in the first post I have gotten a couple of e-mails asking me to further explain what factors are at play that made me arrive at my prediction.

Ed Royce is the only Republican on the ballot in what is a conservative seat. He has incumbency, a huge war chest, and a solid campaign team behind him. Knowing Royce he will campaign very hard in the primary as he always does a really good job of working the district.

D’ Marie Mulattieri will get her fair share of votes based on being the no party preference candidate, which makes her effectively the only non-politico in the race. Without a huge financial backing though to get her message out, I just don;t think that she will be able to advance to the top two.

Jay Chen is an elected official who has been on the ballot before thus giving him some name ID and an idea of how to run a campaign. Being the only Democrat is what puts him over the top though, since Democrats have a 10 point advantage over DTS voters in this district.

Posted in 39th Congressional District | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 38th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 10, 2012

UPDATED 2:41 PM With Explanation.

I was going to post this yesterday but Chris Nguyen kind of stole the show with this post.

This will be the first post in a series of predictions on all races that involve any part of Orange County. We will start with a look at the 38th Congressional District which covers just a tiny piece of Orange County (La Palma). Thank you to the people at Meridian Pacific for posting these great maps on their website.

As a matter of fact Chris Nguyen wrote a post that states the California Redistricting Commission forgot that La Palma was part of Orange County.

This seat is a stronghold for Democrats who have over a 20 point advantage in registration. Looking at the numbers from 2010, no Republican for any major office ended up winning in this district. The only victory here that was not supported by the Democratic Party would be Proposition 8 passing by around 20 points.

Currently Congresswoman Linda Sanchez holds this seat and has been representing this area for a while.

Challengers include Benjamin Campos a Certified Public Accountant that has a business based in Long Beach. He is listed as a Republican on the ballot.

The other challenger is Jorge Robles a Law Enforcement Officer that appears to have a business based in Montebello. He is also listed as a Republican on the ballot.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Linda Sanchez & Jorge Robles

The factors at play- I have gotten a couple of e-mails asking me to further explain what factors are at play that made me arrive at my prediction. I assure you that this is not a crystal ball or a flip of a coin.

Linda Sanchez is the only Democrat on the ballot in what is a very liberal seat. She also has incumbency on her side. She will advance based on these factors alone not to mention relatively high name ID.

The other two candidates are both Republicans and they will both pull from the same base of voters. However, I believe that voters are more likely to support someone who is involved in law enforcement as opposed to a CPA.

Posted in 38th Congressional District | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Dr. Ken Williams Signs Pledge to Never Raise Taxes

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 10, 2012

This just came across the wire from the Williams for OCBE campaign (Full disclosure: Custom Campaigns is the consulting firm running this race):

 

Dr. Ken Williams Signs Pledge to Never Raise Taxes

Irvine, CA (April 9, 2012) – Orange County Board of Education Trustee Ken Williams has signed a pledge, promising never to raise taxes on his constituents. Dr. Williams has also consistently voted to never raise taxes during his tenure on the Orange County Board of Education

“I have always felt that the government has been overtaxing the people,” Williams said. “I have fought to make sure that the County Board of Education doesn’t place tax burdens on our constituents.  I will continue to be the only taxpayer advocate running for this office.”

As a member of the Orange County Board of Education, Williams has served his constituents as their consistent conservative voice on the board, promoting traditional family values, public safety and safe schools, high academic standards, educational accountability, parental rights, and a “back to basics” approach to education.

During his first campaign for office in 1996, Williams defeated a twenty-year incumbent by running on a “back-to-basics education” theme that resonated with the voters of Trustee Area 3.  A home-grown community leader, he is a native of Orange County who graduated from the county’s public schools.  He is a family physician in private medical practice since 1986, and   is on the medical staff at St. Joseph Hospital, Hoag Hospital, and family practice department chairman at Children’s Hospital of Orange County.

Trustee Area 3 consists of the cities of Brea, Irvine, Orange, Villa Park, and Yorba Linda; the communities of Anaheim Hills and North Tustin; and portions of East Anaheim, Lake Forest, Tustin, and Orange County’s canyon communities.

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Posted in Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Deborah Pauly + Campaign Finance = Uh-Oh!!!!!

Posted by HBK on April 9, 2012

Hiring a campaign treasurer is not a bad idea for a political campaign to do. Some people look to hire Lisa Ray, Kelly Lawler, or somebody else that is not Kindee Durkee. If a candidate decides not to hire a treasurer the forms are fairly easy to figure out. However, in some situations you see certain campaigns finance reports that are a train wreck.


Deborah Pauly had some issues with her campaign finance report and also some other interesting factoids that I will point out.

1) The report was due on March 22nd yet she signed her form on March 29th. Tis shows that she was a week late in even putting her form together and based on the report and the lack of activity it is confusing as to what could have possibly taken her so long.

2) The form was turned in over a week late on March 30th. This will likely draw a fine from the FPPC as this is likely to have been forwarded to the appropriate desk at the FPPC from the Spitzer team. Again, why does a form with so few contributions require so much time to put together.

3) She has less than $2400 cash on hand. This should be pretty self-explanatory to readers.

4) $450 contribution received from Marilyn Davenport … yes, the same Marilyn Davenport who sent out the racist Obama email.

5) One person involved with CRA who has seen this has commented that it is possible that she purposely turned in her form late so that she wouldn’t have to explain her lack of support during the CRA endorsement meeting.

Todd is clearly going to win this race, the question really comes down to what the margin of victory is on election day.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , | 4 Comments »

Has AD-69 Candidate Jose Moreno Violated Federal Law?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 9, 2012

U.S. Senator Carl Hatch (D-NM)

U.S. Senator Carl Hatch (D-NM), author of the eponymous Hatch Act

In a rather unfortunate turn of events, it appears AD-69 candidate Jose “Joe” Moreno may have violated federal law. (Remember, this Jose Moreno should not be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno.) The explanation for this lies in a Fresno County Assembly district.

On Friday, the Fresno Bee reported that Republican Geof Lickey withdrew from the AD-31 race against incumbent Democrat Henry Perea. The Bee indicated Lickey had indeed met the March 9 filing deadline and qualified for the ballot before his withdrawal; this March 23 list of candidates who qualified for the ballot from the Secretary of State also confirms this. Lickey was able to remove himself from the ballot, as this April 4 list from the Secretary of State indicates Perea is the sole candidate in AD-31.

The Bee reported, “The Hatch Act bars federal employees from using government resources for partisan purposes. But Lickey was told it also prohibited him from running for partisan political office — even though he doesn’t work for a federal agency.”

The Hatch Act, named after its author, U.S. Senator Carl Hatch (D-NM), was adopted to reduce the usage of federal government jobs to advance partisan political ends after Works Progress Administration officials were found to be using their positions to win votes for Hatch’s party.  Hatch was outraged by this corruption from his own party and wrote the Hatch Act.  Two attempts to have the act overturned on free speech grounds were rejected by the U.S. Supreme Court, who held that the Hatch Act is constitutional.

Among other things, the Hatch Act prohibits covered employees from being “candidates for public office in a partisan election.”

Potential candidates covered by the Hatch Act should act with caution before entering partisan politics. Indeed, when speculation surrounded a potential State Senate candidacy by California Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board Member Sharon Runner in 2010, she refused to even comment on whether she would enter the race due to the Hatch Act. Only after Runner resigned from the CUIAB did she announce that she was running for the State Senate (which she went on to win).

Moreno selected “Orange County Eligibility Technician” as his ballot designation, and that, of course, is his actual job. What does an Eligibility Technician at the County of Orange do? Well, here’s the County’s job description.

So how does the federal Hatch Act apply to a county employee like Moreno?

Well, the U.S. Office of Special Counsel states, “The Hatch Act restricts the political activity of individuals principally employed by state or local executive agencies and who work in connection with programs financed in whole or in part by federal loans or grants.”

According to the County’s job description, part of Moreno’s job is: “explaining and administering laws and policies pertaining to Federal/State/County assistance programs.”

(If you’re wondering why partisan elected officials aren’t banned from running for re-election, elected officials are exempted from the Hatch Act if their elected post deals with federal dollars and their elected post would be the sole cause for a Hatch Act conflict. It would be kind of funny, though, if the Hatch Act prevented every Governor in the country from running for re-election because states administer many federally-funded programs.)

As I mentioned above, the Hatch Act prohibits covered employees from being “candidates for public office in a partisan election.”

In light of Prop 14, is a race for the Assembly still a partisan election since candidates are no longer nominated by political parties?

Under the Hatch Act FAQs: “if a candidate solicits or advertises the endorsement of a partisan political party or uses a political party’s resources to further his or her campaign, these actions may rebut the presumption that an election is nonpartisan, and thus, indicate that the election is a partisan one. While each case is fact specific, the Board has consistently held that it is less about the title used, and more about the actions of the candidate.”

More definitively, the U.S. Office of Special Counsel issued an advisory opinion in 2001 stating, “For purposes of the Hatch Act, an election is deemed partisan if political party designations appear on a ballot next to candidates’ names.”

Moreno listed himself on the ballot as a Republican. He also told the Orange County Register that he had sought financing from the Republican Party to pay the filing fee to run for Assembly.

It looks like the Hatch Act may put an end to the Moreno candidacy for AD-69.

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 36 Comments »