OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Posts Tagged ‘Patricia Bates’

CD-39: DCCC TV Ads Hit Nelson and Huff

Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 8, 2018

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has launched two TV commercials attacking Republican candidates in the 39th Congressional District.  Presumably, the DCCC is concerned that no Democrat will make the top two in CD-39.  The DCCC ad hitting Orange County Supervisor Shawn Nelson (R-Fullerton) attacks his pension and vehicle.  The DCCC ad hitting former Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff (R-Diamond Bar) attacks him for votes on sales taxes, income taxes, vehicle license fees, and port containers.  OC Political is not aware of a DCCC ad hitting former Assemblywoman Young Kim (R-Fullerton).

While those who follow Congressional politics know that DCCC is the official campaign vehicle of House Democrats, the average voter is probably not aware of who they are.  Additionally, D-Triple-C is the usual pronunciation of the committee name, but the ad refers to the committee as the D-C-C-C.  (The “About Us” page of the DCCC’s official web site even has a giant heading labelled “D-Triple-C” on it.)  A casual viewer will not necessarily make the association with the House Democrats.  The DCCC disclaimer is perfectly legal, but they mask its association with the Democrats as much as possible since the target audience of these ads are Republicans, especially considering the anti-tax angle with the Huff ad.

Interestingly, the DCCC publishes opposition research files online.  Presumably, this is to make it easy for independent expenditures to fire at candidates without having to reinvent the wheel by researching information that the DCCC already found.  Also presumably, the complete files are not published, as it would seem reasonable the DCCC wouldn’t want to reveal its entire hand.  The DCCC’s Nelson file is 18 pages long.   The DCCC’s Huff file is 38 pages long.  The DCCC’s Kim file is a whopping 208 pages long.

While the content for the “Can’t Afford Nelson” TV ad is drawn from the DCCC’s Nelson file, the content for the “Huff Puff” ad is not drawn from the DCCC’s Huff file, but rather from the Enough Huff web site set up by Howard Ahmanson.

Specifically, the anti-Nelson ad uses an Orange County Register quote of Senator Pat Bates (R-Laguna Niguel) regarding Nelson’s pension, a Register editorial on his pension (twice), and a Register article on his vehicle and car allowance.  The anti-Huff ad uses a San Gabriel Valley Tribune article quoted at the bottom of Enough Huff’s tax page.  The anti-Huff ad also digs up Huff’s vote on SB 974 from 2008 and the CalChamber’s job killer bill list.

DCCC Ad: “Can’t Afford Nelson”

“Doublespeak…disturbing…shocking…” That’s what Supervisor Shawn Nelson’s Republican colleague said about his pension hypocrisy.  Nelson promised to cut pensions, then signed up for the most lucrative pension available that ultimately cost taxpayers a quarter-million dollars, and Shawn Nelson drove a taxpayer-funded $44,000 Prius on top of a $9,000 a year car allowance.  The OC Register said that “Nelson…disappoints…on pensions…”  Shawn Nelson for Congress?  We can’t afford it.   DCCC is responsible for the content of this advertising.

DCCC Ad: “Huff Puff”

Sacramento Politician Bob Huff huffs and puffs about lower taxes, but did you know Huff supported billions in higher sales taxes, higher income taxes, and higher vehicle license fees?  Bob Huff even voted to tax every container shipped through major California ports.  The Chamber of Commerce called it a “job killer” bill that would hurt our local economy.  Bob Huff: he huffs, and he puffs but will make your taxes go up.  DCCC is responsible for the content of this advertising.

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Patricia Bates Becomes 1st CA Senate Republican Leader from South OC

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 15, 2017

Yesterday afternoon, State Senate Republicans in Sacramento unanimously elected Senator Pat Bates (R-Laguna Niguel) as the new Senate Republican Leader, effective April 12.  Senate Republican Leader Jean Fuller (R-Bakersfield) is stepping down as leader since she will term out of the Senate in 2018.

In the caucus statement announcing her election, Bates said, “It is no secret that Republicans face a challenging political environment in California. But Republicans embrace taxpayers who want a more efficient government, parents who want better schools and safer streets, and citizens who want their constitutional freedoms protected. That is a Republican Party that can attract broad support in California, and I will do everything I can as the next leader to spread that message in every part of the state.”

Prior to her election to the Senate in 2014, Bates was an Orange County Supervisor from 2007-2014 (serving as Chair in 2009 and Vice Chair in 2008 and 2013-2014), a State Assemblywoman from 1996-2004, and on the Laguna Niguel City Council from 1989-1998, including serving as the City’s first mayor after leading the city’s incorporation efforts (she would serve four terms as mayor).  A South Orange County resident for 40 years, she worked as a social worker in Los Angeles County before embarking on a political career.  During her tenure in the Legislature, she has served as Vice Chair of the Appropriations Committee in both houses.  She has also been Vice Chair of the Assembly Health Committee and the Senate Business, Professions, and Economic Development Committee.

Bates is the first South Orange County resident to lead a party caucus in the State Legislature.  She is also the first former Orange County Supervisor to serve as a legislative party caucus leader (Bill Campbell was Assembly Republican Leader before he became an Orange County Supervisor.

Serving as the Republican Leader’s chief of staff is not an unfamiliar position for Kevin Bassett, Bates’s chief of staff.  Bassett had been selected for the role in 2010 by new Senate Republican Leader Bob Dutton and continued in that position when Bob Huff became Leader in 2012, departing in December 2014 when he became Bates’s chief of staff.  Bassett had been on the late Senator Dave Cox’s staff for Cox’s entire political career in the Senate, the Assembly, and the Sacramento County Board of Supervisors.  He was Cox’s chief of staff during his entire tenure in the Legislature, including when Cox served as Assembly Republican Leader (2001-2004), and the latter part of his time on the Board of Supervisors.

Fuller is the first woman to head a Senate party caucus while Bates will be the second.  No woman has yet led the Senate Democratic Caucus.  (While Gloria Romero and Ellen Corbett have served as State Senate Majority Leader, from 2005-2008 and 2010-2014, respectively, that position is the second-ranking position in the Democratic Caucus behind the Senate President Pro Tem, who has always been a man.)  Three women have served as Speaker of the State Assembly (Republican-Elected-Speaker-by-Democrats-Until-She-Was-Recalled-by-Orange-County-Voters Doris Allen in 1995, followed by Democrat Karen Bass from 2008-2010 and Democrat Toni Atkins from 2014-2016) and three have served as Assembly Republican Leader (Carol Hallett from 1979-1981, Connie Conway from 2010-2014, and Kristen Olsen from 2014-2016).

Bates is the first Orange County legislator since Senator Bob Huff (Fuller’s predecessor from 2012-2015) to serve as the head of a party caucus in either house of the Legislature and the first Orange County resident to do so since Dick Ackerman was Senate Republican Leader from 2004-2008 (while Huff’s district included Orange County, he is a resident of Los Angeles County).  An Orange County legislator has not served as Assembly Republican Leader since Bill Campbell in 2000-2001 or Speaker of the Assembly since Curt Pringle in 1996.

While multiple Orange County residents have served as Senate Republican Leader, Assembly Republican Leader, and Speaker of the State Assembly in recent times, none has ever served as President Pro Tem of the State Senate.  However, Republican R. B. Carpenter of Los Angeles County represented both LA and Orange Counties when he served as Senate President Pro Tem from 1892-1893.  For Bates to become Senate President Pro Tem, she would need to grow her caucus by 61% or somehow get 30% of the Democratic Caucus to vote for her.

Posted in 36th Senate District, California, State Senate | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

A Closer Look at SD-37: Newport-Mesa Delivered Nearly All of Moorlach’s Margin of Victory Over Wagner

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 23, 2015

The Registrar of Voters certified the 37th Senate District Special Election on Friday night, John Moorlach took the oath of office yesterday afternoon, and he will be on the Senate Floor at his desk for the first time at 2:00 PM today while Don Wagner will be back on the Assembly Floor at 12:00 PM today.

We’ve all seen the official results districtwide, with Moorlach avoiding a runoff by 199 votes:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 38,125 50.3%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 33,411 44.0%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,621 3.5%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,696 2.2%

 

Besides both being conservative Republican legislators from Orange County, there’s something else Moorlach and Wagner have in common: their most recent constituents like them.  In the 37th Senate District special election, Moorlach won the 2nd Supervisorial District while Wagner won the 68th Assembly District.  Turnout in the 2nd Supervisorial District was 16.8% while turnout in the 68th Assembly District was 15.0%.

Winner by City in the 37th Senate District Special Election

Winner by city or unincorporated area in the 37th Senate District Special Election.  (Note: the sizes of their heads have nothing to do with their vote margin in that community, it’s just the geographic size of the community that did it.  Laguna Woods and Laguna Beach are very oddly-shaped cities.)

The 68th, the 2nd, and Neutral Territory

In the 68th Assembly District (Anaheim Hills, Lake Forest, Orange, Tustin, Villa Park, and the northeastern 1/3 of Irvine), Wagner defeated Moorlach by almost the identical percentage (5.3%) that Moorlach beat Wagner overall in the 37th Senate District (6.3%).  (For those who care to an incredible level of detail, the charts are near the bottom of this post.)

In the 2nd Supervisorial District (Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, and Newport Beach), Moorlach beat Wagner by a whopping 20.6%.

In the neutral territory outside the 68th and the 2nd (Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, and the southwestern 2/3 of Irvine), Wagner defeated Moorlach by a large 18.5% margin.  (To add insult to injury for Naz Namazi, write-in candidate Louise Stewardson beat her in these areas.)  In a testament to how fed up voters were with negative campaigning, it was in these areas where Stewardson and Namazi did the best, getting a combined 8.9% here as opposed to 5.4% in the 2nd and 4.5% in the 68th since there was no “favorite son” candidate in these areas.

Moorlach’s Newport Beach-Costa Mesa Landslide

Moorlach’s margin of victory in his hometown of Costa Mesa was a whopping 25.4% (1,712 votes) and in Newport Beach, it was an even larger 27.9% (2,996 votes).

Costa Mesa and Newport Beach combined to give Moorlach 4,708 more votes than Wagner.  Districtwide, Moorlach defeated Wagner by 4,714 votes.  In other words, without Costa Mesa and Newport Beach, Moorlach would have been ahead of Wagner by just 6 votes, and obviously, there would have been a run-off.

Moorlach also held on to the other 2nd District city, Huntington Beach, by a margin of 7.3% (599 votes).

Moorlach Won Portions of the 68th While Holding All of the 2nd

There were three critical areas where Moorlach broke into Wagner’s home turf: Anaheim Hills, Villa Park, and Silverado.  Had Wagner been able to stop the Moorlach incursion into those three areas of the 68th Assembly District, there would have been a run-off.

The Anaheim Hills votes are interesting in that Moorlach beat Wagner by 76 votes in Anaheim Hills overall, but Wagner beat Moorlach by 7 votes in the 39th Congressional District.  The only portions of the 39th Congressional District that overlap with SD-37 are in Anaheim Hills.  Anaheim Mayor Tom Tait endorsed Moorlach and did a robocall for him.  Congressman Ed Royce endorsed Wagner, did a robocall for him, and was listed on Wagner’s mail as an endorser.

It appears Tait managed to push Anaheim Hills out of the 68th District’s generally pro-Wagner voting pattern, but Royce was able to push his Congressional District back into Wagner’s column.  This war of endorsements from popular elected officials and of campaign mail probably explains why Anaheim Hills was the closest city in the entire district.  (We can rule out most precinct walking operations since the “Hills” name is very, very apt compared to the rest of the relatively flat SD-37.)

Moorlach was endorsed in Villa Park by Mayor Rick Barnett, Councilman Bill Nelson, Councilman Robert Collacott, and former Councilwoman Deborah Pauly.  Wagner was endorsed in Villa Park by Councilman Greg Mills and Councilwoman Diana Fascinelli.  Pauly ran Moorlach’s ground operations, which caused Villa Park to buck the trend of the 68th District backing Wagner.

I have no explanation for Silverado.

Moorlach Won the Liberal Pockets of SD-37

In spite of all the union independent expenditures against Moorlach and/or for Wagner, Moorlach actually won the liberal City of Laguna Beach and the flag-banning precincts of UC Irvine.

Tables Galore

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
68th Assembly District Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 17,213 50.4%
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 15,418 45.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 1,192 3.5%
Louise Stewardson (W) 360 1.0%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
2nd Supervisorial District Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 15,633 57.6%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 10,030 37.0%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 815 3.0%
Louise Stewardson (W) 651 2.4%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Excluding 68th Assembly District and 2nd Supervisorial District Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 7,963 54.8%
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 5,279 36.3%
Louise Stewardson (W) 685 4.7%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 614 4.2%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Costa Mesa Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 3,979 59.1%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 2,267 33.7%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 254 3.8%
Louise Stewardson (W) 234 3.5%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Newport Beach Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 6,651 61.9%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 3,655 34.0%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 263 2.4%
Louise Stewardson (W) 177 1.7%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Excluding Costa Mesa and Newport Beach Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 27,495 47.1%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 27,489 47.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,104 3.6%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,285 2.2%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Huntington Beach Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 4,188 50.6%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 3,589 43.3%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 264 3.2%
Louise Stewardson (W) 240 2.9%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Anaheim Hills Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 2,579 48.4%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 2,503 46.9%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 205 3.8%
Louise Stewardson (W) 46 0.9%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Villa Park Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 651 60.8%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 396 37.0%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 23 2.2%
Louise Stewardson (W) 0 0.0%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Silverado Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 35 58.3%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 21 35.0%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 3 5.0%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1 1.7%

 

Random Trivia Not Worth a Separate Post

For anybody wondering, Moorlach will be seated in the front row on the Senate Floor and will be seatmates with Cathleen Galgiani (D-Stockton).  Moorlach will be one of only two Republicans with a Democrat as a seatmate: the other bipartisan pair of seatmates are Anthony Cannella (R-Ceres) and Jerry Hill (D-San Mateo).  Moorlach will be diagonally seated from his old colleague of eight years on the Board of Supervisors, Janet Nguyen (R-Garden Grove), whose seatmate is their eight-year colleague on the Board of Supervisors, Patricia Bates (R-Laguna Niguel).

Moorlach Seat in the Senate

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, 68th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 16 Comments »