Polling must have really showed the Patrascu campaign that High Speed Rail was a debacle and voters sympathized with a candidate who opposed it. Below is another positive Patrascu piece that highlights his opposition to the project.
Patrascu Back in the Mail – Will Stop HSR
Posted by Marion Morrison on May 25, 2014
Posted in 74th Assembly District, Mail | Tagged: Emanuel Patrascu | Leave a Comment »
Community Leaders Endorse Ceci Iglesias for 69th Assembly District
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 25, 2014
This came over the wire from the Ceci Iglesias for Assembly campaign…
Community Leaders Endorse Ceci Iglesias for 69th Assembly District
ORANGE COUNTY, CA – Campaigning for the 69th Assembly District on the theme of “Put Community First,” Santa Ana Unified School District Board Member Ceci Iglesias today announced the endorsements of two respected community leaders, Reuben Martinez and Frank Garcia.
Martinez and Garcia join a long list of organizations and leaders endorsing Iglesias for Assembly, including the Lincoln Club of Orange County, the Hispanic 100, Los 32 por Mexico, the California Women’s Leadership Association, Atlas PAC, Assemblymen Travis Allen and Don Wagner, Senators Bob Huff and Mimi Walters, Orange County Supervisors Janet Nguyen and Todd Spitzer, Orange County Clerk-Recorder Hugh Nguyen, and Orange County Board of Education Trustee Robert Hammond.
“I am honored to be endorsed by two such respected community leaders like Reuben Martinez and Frank Garcia,” Iglesias said. “My campaign for the Assembly is about putting community first, and I am grateful for such strong community support.”
Reuben Martinez founded the iconic Librería Martinez bookstore in Santa Ana nearly 20 years ago. A delegate to several Democratic National Conventions and a 2004 winner of the MacArthur Fellowship, Martinez serves as a Presidential Fellow at Chapman University, promoting literacy and education.
Frank Garcia founded La Casa Garcia restaurant in Anaheim more than 40 years ago. Nearly 30 years ago, Garcia founded We Give Thanks, which has provided over 200,000 free Thanksgiving dinners to Orange County families in need and has award scholarships to local students for 15 years.
Iglesias was the top vote-getter in the 2012 Santa Ana Unified School Board election. Born in El Salvador, Iglesias immigrated with her family to the United States and to Central Orange County 35 years ago. A graduate of Santa Ana Unified, she earned degrees from Santa Ana College and Cal State Fullerton. Iglesias resides in Santa Ana with her son, who attends local public schools.
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Paid for by Iglesias for Assembly 2014. ID# 1364420.
Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: Atlas PAC, Bob Huff, California Women's Leadership Association, Cecilia "Ceci" Iglesias, Don Wagner, Frank Garcia, Hispanic 100, hugh nguyen, Janet Nguyen, Lincoln Club of Orange County, Los 32 por Mexico, Mimi Walters, Reuben Martinez, Robert Hammond, Todd Spitzer, Travis Allen | Leave a Comment »
Editor’s Note: Post removed for various legal reasons, including but not limited to copyright violation
Posted by Allen Wilson on May 25, 2014
Editor’s Note: Post removed for various legal reasons, including but not limited to copyright violation.
Posted in 55th Assembly District, State Assembly | Tagged: 55th State Assembly District, Ling-Ling Chang | Leave a Comment »
Conservative icon Michael Reagan endorses Jesse Petrilla for Assembly
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 24, 2014
This just came across the wire:
Conservative icon Michael Reagan endorses Jesse Petrilla for Assembly
ORANGE COUNTY, CA – Tuesday, May 20, 2014 – Momentum continues to grow in the final two weeks until Election Day for Jesse Petrilla for State Assembly. Today, Michael Reagan, son of former President Ronald Reagan, endorsed Jesse for Assembly District 73.
“Republicans need a new generation of leadership to take back our government in Sacramento. That’s why I’m supporting Jesse Petrilla for State Assembly,” Reagan said, “He’s a bright new leader for our future.”
Sharing Ronald Reagan’s vision of small government, Jesse is a proven fighter for the taxpayers. He has pledged to never vote to raise taxes, supports strong pension reform, and voluntarily turned down lucrative retirement and health benefits offered to council members.
A military officer, Jesse deployed to Afghanistan in 2012. He is also an Orange County small business owner and City Council Member in Rancho Santa Margarita. He is happily married with one son.
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Jesse needs your support. A San Francisco billionaire, in an effort to advance a liberal agenda, just this week jumped in behind one of Jesse’s opponents with hundreds of thousands of dollars in an attempt to defeat Jesse on Election Day. That is why your contribution today of $50, $100, $250, $500 or more is so urgently needed to help get out our message. You can contribute online, instantly and securely, by clicking here. Or you may also mail a check to Jesse Petrilla for Assembly, PO Box 80325, RSM, CA 92688. With your continued support, we will win! Thank you.
Paid for by Jesse Petrilla for Assembly, ID # 1353994
This email was sent to jesse@joinjesse.com
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
Vetting Donnelly
Posted by Walter Myers III on May 24, 2014
Tim Donnelly is one of those figures who seems to draw intense reactions from either “side” of the current schism running within the Republican Party. That schism is roughly drawn along the “establishment”/moderate side of the party versus the conservative base/Tea Party. Inasmuch as the conservative base is “all in” for Donnelly, the establishment side is equally strident and dug in that Donnelly essentially is not fit to lead the Republican Party in California. On the conservative base side we hear the constant refrain that the establishment can’t win without the base, but the conservative base does not seem to recognize that the party can’t win without the establishment either. On the establishment side, there is such fear of losing and continuing to be a permanent minority in California that anything a Tea Party type candidate does that appears to upset minority groups brings out quite a bit of loathing, sometimes even to the point of pandering. Clearly, with such distrust amongst two sides that are supposed to be united to beat Democrats, the Republican Party has become one that eats its own, making it easier for Democrats to pick off candidates who have been already badly damaged by their own party. If this continues, the Party is pretty much done as we know it.
As it pertains to Donnelly, I am hard pressed to understand why there is so much handwringing over his candidacy for California governor. By all accounts Donnelly is honest, hardworking, and a strong conservative who brings a libertarian streak that is truly a breath of fresh air in the Republican Party, and has the potential to bring in young voters as well as Independents that have soured on the party. With respect to his position on illegal immigration, how can he be disqualified as a candidate for simply believing that we need to enforce existing laws on the books? In my own discussions with Donnelly, while he wasn’t prepared to become a proponent of the Lincoln Club immigration reform policy, he said that he was always open to different ideas on solving the problem. So I never saw him as a closed book on that issue. Yes, he has said some unartful things in the past, but who hasn’t? Tim is a man. I am a man. Reagan was a man. Men are imperfect and we should never expect perfection from men. And parties are even more imperfect vehicles because they’re made up of imperfect people. Just remember it was our beloved Reagan who gave us amnesty in 1986, which failed miserably and has us in a situation almost thirty years later where we have twelve million new illegal immigrants and a seemingly intractable problem for Republicans.
And then we have the situation where a Donnelly associate accused Donnelly’s opponent Neel Kashkari of supporting Sharia law due to welcoming remarks Kashkari gave in 2008 at a U.S. Treasury conference about Islamic finance. Does this event tie Kashkari to Sharia law? This, in my view, is a tendentious charge at best, but it certainly wasn’t racist which we know isn’t even a meaningful charge anymore because the term has become so cheap. As a “black” person, I truly do lament that as someone who actually suffered racism growing up in the south. To see white people throw this word around, particularly guilty white liberals and self-serving, opportunistic Republicans, is highly offensive to me and I am personally quite tired of people using the word when they hardly even know what it truly means. But anyway, what I want to argue here is what people like about Donnelly is that what you see is what you get. He is not poll tested, he doesn’t have consultants whispering in his ear, and he doesn’t have handlers. So he will probably make more mistakes than most politicians, but after almost six years of Obama lying to the American people on a regular basis, don’t we want to know what candidates really think instead of someone else telling them what to say which may not reflect the way they really feel on a given issue? I will take a real person over someone whose words are carefully groomed by a nameless, faceless consultant any day of the week.
Now given all I have discussed thus far, I do think that Donnelly needs to make some changes. He needs to begin reaching out beyond his base. He needs to tackle the nasty, gnarly third rail of politics, illegal immigration, and speak to the party about how he would handle this situation. But what is key is that he needs to learn different ways to communicate with different groups of people that don’t belie his conservative principles since Tim Donnelly without his conservatives principles is not the Tim Donnelly anyone should want. Leaders come and go, as Reagan did. And we don’t need another Reagan. What we need is a leader of our time who espouses the conservative principles that Reagan did but can communicate those principles in a manner that reaches into people’s hearts and minds. This past Friday I heard Dr. Ben Carson, who was standing in for Sean Hannity on his radio program, explain how we hear in precise medical vocabulary which is exceedingly complex. He did it in almost one breath and it was one of the most brilliant things I have ever heard. He is a brain surgeon, after all. But he was also on the liberal-leaning The View program with Whoopi Goldberg and crew this week talking about Obamacare and welfare. His simple words were so filled with grace, calm, and common sense that he had the cast mostly agreeing with him as well as the audience. That is the mark of a true communicator: one who can communicate well no matter the context. But we don’t necessarily need a brain surgeon to run California. We need a real person of character, conviction, and conservative principles that will make this once great state a beacon of hope and opportunity for all its citizens again. Can Donnelly be that man? I don’t know the answer, but let’s at least give him the chance to fail without making it a fait accompli due to the destruction we all too often visit on our very own.
Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: California Republican Party, Tim Donnelly | 3 Comments »
Yorba Linda Recall: Young and Lindsey Receives IE Rescue
Posted by Allen Wilson on May 23, 2014
The Southern California Coalition of Business and Taxpayers (SCCBT) has recently established an Independent Expenditure (IE) on March 28, 2014 with a FPPC number 1365006.
The SCCBT has already raised over $100K for the purpose of supporting and/or opposing candidates in state and local offices.
On May 16, 2014, the SCCBT has spent resources at a total cost of over $13,000 on literature on behalf of Yorba Linda Mayor Craig Young and Yorba Linda Councilman Tom Lindsey.
Below is the IE expenses of $8,204.66 for Craig Young:
Below is the IE expenses of $5,072.94 for Tom Lindsey:
It is possible that this is just the beginning. All IE late contributions are require to report some activity with the Secretary of State and local clerk and in this case would be the Yorba Linda City Clerk.
Posted in Campaign Finance, Yorba Linda | Tagged: Craig Young, recall, Southern California Coalition of Business and Taxpayers, Tom Lindsey, yorba linda | 1 Comment »
Fundraiser for Cecilia Iglesias on 5/29 at the Office of Scott Baugh & Associates
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 23, 2014
This came across the wire earlier this week:
Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: Cecilia "Ceci" Iglesias | Leave a Comment »
Campaign Contribution Limits
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 23, 2014
In our effort to bring useful information to our readers, here is a database of campaign contribution limits for every office in Orange County:
| Office | Contribution Limit |
| UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE | $ 2,600.00 |
| STATE SENATE | $ 4,100.00 |
| STATE ASSEMBLY | $ 4,100.00 |
| ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS | $ 1,900.00 |
| ORANGE COUNTY SCHOOL BOARD | NONE |
| ORANGE COUNTY ASSESSOR | $ 1,900.00 |
| ORANGE COUNTY AUDITOR-CONTROLLER | $ 1,900.00 |
| ORANGE COUNTY CLERK-RECORDER | $ 1,900.00 |
| ORANGE COUNTY DISTRICT ATTORNEY | $ 1,900.00 |
| ORANGE COUNTY SHERIFF-CORONER | $ 1,900.00 |
| ORANGE COUNTY SUPERINTENDENT OF SCHOOLS | $ 1,900.00 |
| ORANGE COUNTY TREASURER-TAX COLLECTOR | $ 1,900.00 |
| ALISO VIEJO CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| ANAHEIM MAYOR | $ 1,900.00 |
| ANAHEIM CITY COUNCIL | $ 1,900.00 |
| BREA CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| BUENA PARK CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| COSTA MESA CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| CYPRESS CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| DANA POINT CITY COUNCIL | $ 690.00 |
| FOUNTAIN VALLEY CITY COUNCIL | $ 500.00 |
| FULLERTON CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| GARDEN GROVE MAYOR | NONE |
| GARDEN GROVE CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| HUNTINGTON BEACH CITY COUNCIL | $ 540.00 |
| IRVINE MAYOR | $ 470.00 |
| IRVINE CITY COUNCIL | $ 470.00 |
| LAGUNA BEACH CITY COUNCIL | $ 360.00 |
| LAGUNA HILLS CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| LAGUNA NIGUEL CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| LA HABRA CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| LAGUNA WOODS CITY COUNCIL | $ 250.00 |
| LAKE FOREST CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| LA PALMA CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| LOS ALAMITOS CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| MISSION VIEJO CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| NEWPORT BEACH CITY COUNCIL | $ 1,100.00 |
| ORANGE MAYOR | $ 1,000.00 |
| ORANGE CITY COUNCIL | $ 1,000.00 |
| PLACENTIA CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| RANCHO SANTA MARGARITA CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| SAN CLEMENTE CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO CITY COUNCIL | $ 500.00 |
| SANTA ANA MAYOR | $ 1,000.00 |
| SANTA ANA CITY COUNCIL | $ 1,000.00 |
| SEAL BEACH CITY COUNCIL | $ 500.00 |
| STANTON CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| TUSTIN CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| VILLA PARK CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| WESTMINSTER MAYOR | NONE |
| WESTMINSTER CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| YORBA LINDA CITY COUNCIL | NONE |
| NORTH ORANGE COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT | NONE |
| COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT | NONE |
| RANCHO SANTIAGO COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT | NONE |
| SOUTH ORANGE COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT | NONE |
| ANAHEIM UNION HIGH SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| FULLERTON JOINT UNION HIGH SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| HUNTINGTON BEACH UNION HIGH SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| BREA-OLINDA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| GARDEN GROVE UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| LAGUNA BEACH UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| NEWPORT MESA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| PLACENTIA-YORBA LINDA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| SANTA ANA UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| ANAHEIM CITY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| CENTRALIA ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| FOUNTAIN VALLEY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| HUNTINGTON BEACH CITY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| LOWELL JOINT ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| OCEAN VIEW ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| WESTMINSTER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL DISTRICT | NONE |
| EMERALD BAY COMMUNITY SERVICES DISTRICT | NONE |
| SURFSIDE COLONY COMMUNITY SERVICES DISTRICT | NONE |
| EL TORO WATER DISTRICT | NONE |
| MOULTON NIGUEL WATER DISTRICT | NONE |
| MUNICIPAL WATER DISTRICT OF ORANGE COUNTY | NONE |
| ROSSMOOR/LOS ALAMITOS AREA SEWER DISTRICT | NONE |
| ORANGE COUNTY WATER DISTRICT | NONE |
| TRABUCO CANYON WATER DISTRICT | NONE |
| SURFSIDE COLONY STORMWATER PROTECTION DISTRICT | NONE |
| MIDWAY CITY SANITARY DISTRICT | NONE |
| SERRANO WATER DISTRICT | NONE |
| BUENA PARK LIBRARY DISTRICT | NONE |
| PLACENTIA LIBRARY DISTRICT | NONE |
Posted in Campaign Finance | Leave a Comment »
Michelle Steel Receives First IE – AOCDS Delivers, While Mansoor Appeals to Facebook Friends
Posted by Marion Morrison on May 22, 2014
The first IE for the 2nd Supervisorial District has hit mailboxes today. The Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs has come out in support of Michelle Steel with this positive piece.
Meanwhile, Allan Mansoor appeals to friends on Facebook to let people know what has transpired:
Public Employee Unions Rally for Michelle Steel
Friends,
Over the weekend, I received notice that the Association of Orange County Deputy Sheriffs union will be sending out its first mailer on behalf of Michelle Steel sometime in the next 24 hours. The union endorsement, shown below, is the most important part.
Given Michelle’s history, it’s not surprising. I’ve known it was only a matter of time before public employee unions started lining up to support her.
In 2006, public employee unions spent hundreds of thousands of dollars opposing my reelection to City Council. That same year, Michelle received multiple $1000+ union contributions to her campaign for BOE. (see attached photo below)
Given that independent expenditures rarely seem “independent” this probably isn’t a surprise for Steel either. Perhaps it’s why she refused to rule out immediate raises for county employees to offset increased employee pension contributions.
Have trouble believing that Michelle Steel, self-proclaimed “taxpayer advocate”, would undermine pension reform? Her comments starting at the 12:30 mark of the Feet to the Fire Forum speak for themselves.
What do union endorsements like this mean? It means that a candidate can be trusted by union bosses to help increase their power. It doesn’t mean that rank and file membership support the candidate.
I continue to have strong support from my former colleagues – rank and file Deputy Sheriffs – who know that pension reform is the only way to save our pensions. Everyone who has worked in law enforcement and is expecting a pension – myself included – depends on sustainable pensions. A bankrupt pension system might leave us with nothing.
This isn’t the only time union leaders have been out of touch with the membership. In 2006, when convicted-Sheriff Mike Carona was running for reelection, I joined many of my fellow Deputies in standing up against Mike Carona and supported Lt. Bill Hunt.
We knew then that Mike Carona was corrupt and that it was only a matter of time before he went to prison. But then we watched with disappointment as our “leadership” fell over themselves to undermine Lt. Hunt’s campaign and continue supporting Carona until the bitter end.
Not much has changed since the days of Carona. Union bosses still prefer candidates who will engage in backroom dealmaking and are more interested in holding office than serving the community.
My desire to make Orange County a better place to live is shared by rank and file members, many of whom have my sign in their yards. It’s the union bosses and other special interests that oppose me because I will always stand up for what is right, regardless of the political consequences.
We’re in the final stretch of the campaign, and I need your help. With your help, we can keep the public employee union bosses from buying a seat on the Orange County Board of Supervisors.
Please contribute here and together we can help keep this seat for the residents of Orange County’s 2nd District.
Thank you for your continued friendship and support.
Allan
http://www.facebook.com/allanmansoor/posts/10201131476609410
Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, Independent Expenditures, Mail | Tagged: Allan Mansoor, AOCDS, Michelle Steel | Leave a Comment »
Handicapping The Races: 55th Assembly District (June 2014)
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 22, 2014
Here goes another handicapping post, I fear that Chris Nguyen is going to chase me with the axe from the Neel Kashkari mailer. I am going to give my take on the 55th Assembly District, which is Curt Hagman’s seat, which he cannot run for due to term limits.
Here are the candidates running for AD 55:
- Gregg Fritchle (D) – Social Worker
- Steve Tye (R) – Councilmember
- Ling-Ling Chang (R) – City Councilwoman
- Phillip Chen (R) – Small Business Owner
Voter registration heavily favors Republicans, with Republicans having 42% of registered voters in the 55th Assembly District compared to Democrats who hold just 31% of voter registration. This is an open primary that falls under the rules of Proposition 14, so regardless of percentages, the two candidates with the most votes will advance to the November election. The 55th Assembly District currently has the following cities within its boundaries:
- LA COUNTY
- Diamond Bar
- Rowland Heights
- Walnut
- Industry (Portion)
- West Covina (Portion)
- ORANGE COUNTY
- Brea
- La Habra
- Placentia
- Yorba Linda
- SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
- Chino Hills
Gregg Fritchle
Gregg Fritchle has run for this seat before and is the lone Democrat on the ballot this election. Let’s take a look at his electoral history.
Results from 2012 (Open Primary):
| MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 55th District |
| Completed Precincts: 275 of 275 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| CURT HAGMAN | 40,268 | 69.1% |
| GREGG D. FRITCHLE | 17,994 | 30.9% |
Results from 2010 (Democratic Primary):
| MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 60th District – Democratic |
| Completed Precincts: 299 of 299 |
| Vote Count | Percentage | |
| GREGG D. FRITCHLE (DEM) | 14,498 | 100.0% |
Fritchle has no chance to win in November and likely will not run a very comprehensive campaign being that he is a sacrificial lamb on the ballot. However, he is still the only Democrat in the race and with a solid backing in the last election among Democrats, Fritchle does not have any other candidates pulling from his base of voters.
With Fritchle not qualifying for electronic campaign finance filings, we can assume that he does not plan to get involved in the voter contact battle that will exist among the three Republicans in the race to advance to November.
Steve Tye
Steve Tye is sort of the curious candidate in this race. I do not really understand why he is running and he does not appear to be in a good position to advance to November and I will show you why.
I will give him this, he did finish ahead of Ling-Ling Chang in the past two Diamond Bar City Council Races, but I am not convinced that he is a contender based on his campaign being the weakest of the three Republicans. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.
Results from 2013 (LA County Election):
As of Date: 11/19/2013 Time: 13:58 Votes Percent
DIAMOND BAR CY GEN MUNI COUNCILMEMBER
VOTE FOR NO MORE THAN 3STEVE TYE 2,895 23.68
LING LING CHANG 2,765 22.61
NANCY A LYONS 2,578 21.08
RON EVERETT 1,956 16.00
JOSEPH KIM 1,232 10.08
MARTIN NAKAISHI 801 6.55TOTAL PRECINCTS 18 PRECINCTS REPORTING 18 100.00
REGISTRATION 31,989
Results from 2009 (LA County Election):
As of Date: 11/20/2009 Time: 16:27 Votes Percent
DIAMOND BAR CITY GEN MUNI COUNCILMEMBER
VOTE FOR NO MORE THAN 3STEVE TYE 3,472 24.04
RON EVERETT 2,945 20.39
LING-LING CHANG 2,727 18.88
ROBERT L VELAZQUEZ 1,520 10.53
DAVID T LIU 1,453 10.06
LUCY HUANG 1,311 9.08
S DHAND 1,013 7.01TOTAL PRECINCTS 17 PRECINCTS REPORTING 17 100.00
REGISTRATION 29,877
As you can see from the election results, Tye does extremely well in races that take place in odd years in Diamond Bar. This election, though, is the big leagues, and he is going to need a much stronger effort to win a seat in the State Assembly.
As of the last reporting period, Tye has over $123,000 cash on hand although this does include a $100,000 loan from himself. I have not heard about any mailers going out from his campaign but will admit that I was impressed to hear that he does have a pretty substantial precinct operation that his campaign is running. I question whether or not he can raise enough money to fight the powers of Ling-Ling Chang and Phillip Chen who have dominated the mailboxes up until this point.
Tye will likely pull some votes away from Ling-Ling Chang by virtue of his name ID in Diamond Bar. However, I anticipate that he will pull more votes away from Phillip Chen due to the fact that the male voters will be split between three candidates.
Ling-Ling Chang
Ling-Ling Chang is the other Councilmember from Diamond Bar that is running in this race. She is the only female candidate on the ballot and has got a lot of money in her campaign war chest as of the last reporting period.
Ling-Ling Chang snuck onto the City Council in 2009 but showed a great deal of improvement in 2013. Let’s take a brief look at her electoral history.
Results from 2013 (LA County Election):
As of Date: 11/19/2013 Time: 13:58 Votes Percent
DIAMOND BAR CY GEN MUNI COUNCILMEMBER
VOTE FOR NO MORE THAN 3STEVE TYE 2,895 23.68
LING LING CHANG 2,765 22.61
NANCY A LYONS 2,578 21.08
RON EVERETT 1,956 16.00
JOSEPH KIM 1,232 10.08
MARTIN NAKAISHI 801 6.55TOTAL PRECINCTS 18 PRECINCTS REPORTING 18 100.00
REGISTRATION 31,989
Results from 2009 (LA County Election):
As of Date: 11/20/2009 Time: 16:27 Votes Percent
DIAMOND BAR CITY GEN MUNI COUNCILMEMBER
VOTE FOR NO MORE THAN 3STEVE TYE 3,472 24.04
RON EVERETT 2,945 20.39
LING-LING CHANG 2,727 18.88
ROBERT L VELAZQUEZ 1,520 10.53
DAVID T LIU 1,453 10.06
LUCY HUANG 1,311 9.08
S DHAND 1,013 7.01TOTAL PRECINCTS 17 PRECINCTS REPORTING 17 100.00
REGISTRATION 29,877
As you can see from the election results, Chang closed the gap between herself and Tye in the 2013 race. I expect her to finish substantially ahead of Tye in the areas outside of Diamond Bar. Impressively, Chang has over $325,000 cash on hand as of the last reporting period, although this also includes a $100,000 personal loan.
Chang not only has the most direct mail going out to voters but she also appears to have the best ground game from what I have heard from my sources in the 55th Assembly District. She is definitely putting in the work needed to come out a winner in this race.
At this point, it is her race to lose.
Phillip Chen
Phillip Chen is fighting with Ling-Ling Chang for the top slot in this election. Chen is a member of the Walnut Valley Unified School District and is also a staffer for LA County Supervisor Mike Antonovich. I am not impressed with his usage of the ballot designation Small Business Owner.
Let’s take a look at his electoral history.
Results from 2011 (LA County Election):
As of Date: 11/18/2011 Time: 14:05 Votes Percent
WALNUT VALLEY UNIF SCH GOVERNING BOARD MEMBER
VOTE FOR NO MORE THAN 2PHILLIP CHEN 3,121 42.65
LARRY L REDINGER 2,649 36.20
BEN YIP 1,548 21.15TOTAL PRECINCTS 22 PRECINCTS REPORTING 22 100.00
REGISTRATION 31,204
Chen does not have as much name ID as Steve Tye or Ling-Ling Chang, but he does appear to have the most money with over $450,000 cash on hand, although as with the other two Republicans he has also loaned himself the magic $100,000. It appears that he has dominated slate mailers up until this point, but I have not been very impressed with the direct mail that he has put out or the TV commercial that he has put up on cable.
With his fundraising lead in place, I will give Chen credit, because I have heard that he is also running a strong ground game operation. The problems he face are that he has weaker name ID than both of his Republican opponents, and he did not use his elected title as his ballot designation (which would link him to his name ID). Chen just does not stand out from the crowd in my opinion, and I believe that it will be tough for him to overtake Ling-Ling Chang
Prediction Time
Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict that the candidates who advance to November will be
Ling-Ling Chang (R) and Gregg Fritchle (D)
Posted in 55th Assembly District | Tagged: Gregg Fritchle, Ling-Ling Chang, Phillip Chen, Steve Tye | Leave a Comment »
OC Political 