OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Posts Tagged ‘Don Wagner’

No Run-Off, Swearing-In Scheduled: Senator-Elect Moorlach’s Lead Shrinks by Another 25 Votes, But Registrar Virtually Done Counting

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 20, 2015

California State Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

California State Senator-Elect
John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

The sixth results (yesterday’s count) are in, and the Registrar of Voters actually finished counting all ballots in their possession.  The only remaining ballots are SB 29 ballots that will arrive in the mail today.

2,672 SB 29 ballots were counted, with 2,440 of those arriving on Wednesday and 232 arriving yesterday.  Only a tiny number of SB 29 ballots are expected to arrive today.

This sixth update has the penultimate results, as the seventh update tonight will be the final numbers from the Registrar of Voters:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 38,111 50.3%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 33,403 44.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,619 3.5%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,695 2.2%

 

Moorlach gained 1,718 votes, Wagner 1,533, Namazi 129, and Stewardson 106.  In other words, Moorlach gained 1,718 of the newly-counted votes (49.3%) while the rest of the field gained 1,768 of the newly-counted votes (50.7%).

Moorlach was ahead of 50% by 247 votes for the last Election Night count, which shrunk by 25 down to 222 votes after Wednesday’s count, and that lead shrunk by another 25 votes, still leaving Moorlach 197 votes above the 50% mark.  I project that the remaining SB 29 ballots left are far, far fewer than 197; I’ll go out on a limb and say there’s probably less than 10 of those ballots out there.

Based on the Election Night returns and trends, OC Political was the first place to call the election in print when we did so on Election Night at 10:31 PM, and we stood by the call even as a number of other places said late ballots would trend away from Moorlach.

Senator Sharon Runner was sworn in yesterday in the State Capitol after winning the SD-21 special election, which was held the same day as the SD-37 special election.  Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff had invited Senator-Elect John Moorlach to be sworn in on the same day, but Moorlach opted to wait and will also take the oath of office in the district.  He plans to be sworn in on Sunday at 4:00 PM in the Chapel at the Orange County Rescue Mission’s Village of Hope at 1 Hope Drive in Tustin.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Senator-Elect Moorlach’s Lead Shrinks by Insignificant 25 Votes – There Will Be No Run-Off

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 19, 2015

Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach
(R-Costa Mesa)

The Registrar of Voters has counted nearly all non-SB 29 ballots.  450 absentee ballots that arrived in the mail on Election Day have been counted, leaving only 100 left.  3,860 absentee ballots dropped off at the polls have been counted, leaving only 96 left.  All 181 Election Day paper ballots cast at the polls have been counted.  The 788 provisional ballots are still out there, so 4,481 ballots were counted in the fifth set of results, and only 984 of the non-SB 29 ballots remain.  2,440 SB 29 ballots arrived yesterday, and while there are still some SB 29 ballots that will arrive today and tomorrow, those will be fewer in number than 2,440.

The fifth results (yesterday’s count) show:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 36,393 50.3%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 31,870 44.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,490 3.4%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,589 2.2%

 

In the fifth results, Moorlach gained 2,185 votes, Wagner 1,883, Namazi 131, and Stewardson 221.  Looked at another way, Moorlach gained 2,185 votes (49.4%) while the other three won 2,235 (50.6%).  (61 undervotes/overvotes were counted yesterday, but they don’t count toward the total since they didn’t cast a valid vote.)

In the fourth results (final Election Night count), Moorlach was averting a run-off by 247 votes.  In the fifth results (yesterday’s count), Moorlach is averting a run-off by 222 votes.

So after counting 4,481 ballots yesterday, with 3,424 left, plus the small number of SB 29 ballots that will arrive today and tomorrow, it would take an unusual reversal of fortune for Moorlach for a run-off to occur.  In every iteration of ballot counts, Moorlach has dropped no lower than 49%.  For a run-off to occur, he’d have to drop to 44% or less in the remaining ballots – that’s not going to happen.

OC Political stands by our Election Night projection that there will be no run-off and John Moorlach will succeed Mimi Walters as State Senator for the 37th District.

With Moorlach’s victory, it appears the road to the California State Senate from Orange County runs through the Hall of Administration.  When was the last time an Orange County Supervisor lost a bid for the California State Senate? The last four Supervisors to run for Senate have been successful: Lou Correa in 2006, Patricia Bates and Janet Nguyen in 2014, and John Moorlach in 2015.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Senator Moorlach

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

This election is over.  There will be no run-off: former Orange County Supervisor John Moorlach is the California State Senator-Elect for the 37th District, rejoining his former colleagues of eight years, Supervisors-turned-Senators Janet Nguyen and Patricia Bates.

Moorlach wins with 50.4%.

The only remaining ballots are absentee ballots that were returned at the polls, SB 29 ballots (i.e. absentee ballots that will arrive in the mail by Friday), and provisional ballots.  It is highly unlikely there are a large enough number to make a difference.  Additionally, Moorlach seemed to gain ground with later ballots, so in all likelihood, the later ballots will only further cement Moorlach’s victory.

Here are the results after early absentees and all poll votes from 248 precincts were counted:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 34,208 50.4%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 29,987 44.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,359 3.5%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,368 2.0%
Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

California State Senator-Elect
John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

 

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , | 12 Comments »

Moorlach Might Win Out Right – Run-Off Looking Less Likely

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

The third results are in:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 171 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 31,856 49.9%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 28,449 44.6%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,266 3.6%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,218 1.9%

 

This third set adds another 89 precincts; combined with 82 precincts already reported, there are now 171 of 248 precincts reporting (69.0%).

Moorlach added 2,127 votes, Wagner added 1,734, Namazi added 88, and Stewardson added 134.

Each update has added another 0.1% to Moorlach.  There are 77 precincts remaining.  It is entirely possible the SB 29 ballots could determine whether there will be a May 19 run-off or if John Moorlach will be a Senator on Friday night.  If Moorlach wins, in a four-month span, the majority of the Orange County Board of Supervisors left the Board and joined the Senate together (Moorlach, Janet Nguyen, and Pat Bates).

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Needle Moves 0.1% – Moorlach Slightly Widens Lead

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

The second results are in:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 82 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 29,729 49.8%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 26,715 44.7%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,178 3.6%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,084 1.8%

The first results were all ballots received in the mail through today.  12% of all registered voters in SD-37 cast absentee ballots that were received in the mail by the Registrar as of today (absentee ballots can continue to arrive through Friday and still be counted).

This second set are the first 82 precincts of 248 (33.1%).

Moorlach added 861 votes, Wagner added 667, Namazi added 42, and Stewardson added 6.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Run-off? Too Close to Call: Moorlach 49.7%, Wagner 44.8%

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

The first results from early absentees are in:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 0 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 28,868 49.7%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 26,048 44.8%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,136 3.7%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,078 1.9%

 

Unfortunately, they’re inconclusive.  Early absentees show Moorlach ahead of Wagner by 2,820 votes (4.9%). Presumably, with the uptick in negative mail and robocalls, Moorlach should lose ground with poll voters. If voters are turned off by the negative mail and robocalls, it could benefit Namazi of all people because while Wagner went negative earlier, Moorlach went negative late as well.

I fear my prediction of a run-off may be true.

We should have more information from the Registrar’s 9:30 PM update.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Some Last Thoughts on the SD-37 Special Primary Election

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

All the mail I got for the SD-37 special election.

All the mail I got for the SD-37 special election.

I really hope that I’m wrong about the election going to a run-off on May 19.  I hope whoever comes in first tonight, whether it is Don Wagner or John Moorlach, gets more than 50% of the vote.  A run-off would be bad for both candidates, their campaigns, and the voters.  The candidates and their campaign staffs would have their lives continue to be on hold for another two months, and the voters would be subject to another endless barrage of campaign mail and robocalls (not to mention the $1.974 million price tag to taxpayers for the run-off).

I imagine my aberrant voter behavior contributed to my voter contact level: I’m a poll voter who requested an absentee ballot on the first day you could request one, but then held on to it and surrendered it at the polling place to vote at the poll.

I personally received 11 robocalls, with 10 of them in the last week. The calls were from (in order of receipt):

  • Congressman Ed Royce for Wagner
  • Naz Namazi for herself
  • Supervisor Todd Spitzer for Wagner
  • John Moorlach for himself
  • Supervisor Andrew Do for Wagner (in Vietnamese)
  • Naz Namazi for herself
  • Mayor Tom Tait for Moorlach
  • Senator Janet Nguyen for Wagner (in Vietnamese)
  • Shawn Steel for Wagner
  • Ed Royce for Wagner

Additionally, I was even had a voicemail from Don Wagner personally phone banking.

Mailwise, I received:

  • 5 mailers from Wagner (1 positive in Vietnamese, 2 mostly-positive comparison pieces, and 2 mostly-negative comparison pieces)
  • 2 mailers from Moorlach (1 mostly-positive comparison piece and 1 mostly-negative comparison piece)
  • 3 IEs from AOCDS and the statewide law enforcement union (1 anti-Moorlach piece, 1 pro-Wagner piece, and 1 that was both)
  • 1 IE from the California Homeowners Association (a comparison piece)

The reason this race went so negative so fast is fundamentally, there are no real differences between Wagner and Moorlach.  They will compile virtually identical voting records in the Senate.  When there are no real policy differences, all you can do is go negative.  As Jon Fleischman of the Flash Report put it at the beginning of this election, “The conservatives have already won.”  The only real difference is one of style and priorities, but they’d vote the same, and Martin Wisckol’s piece in the OC Register was spot on.

Usually, when we say there’s no difference between the candidates, it’s a complaint.  In this election, it’s a compliment.  We’ll know the results in a few minutes, and hopefully somebody breaks 50%.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

It’s Election Day in the 37th Senate District

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

Wagner, Moorlach, and Namazi

Business Owner/Assemblyman Donald P. Wagner, former Orange County Supervisor John M. W. Moorlach, and Naz Namazi

At long last, election day has arrived in the 37th Senate District.  Voters in the 37th Senate District can find their polling place here; polls close at 8:00 PM.  Absentee ballots can still be mailed to the Registrar of Voters today, thanks to SB 29 (Correa).

Voters will fill the seat to succeed Mimi Walters, who was elected to Congress, unless neither Don Wagner nor John Moorlach achieves 50% of the vote, in which case Naz Namazi will cost Orange County taxpayers $1.974 million by causing an unnecessary May 19 run-off election.

For those tracking, 54,700 ballots were received by the Registrar of Voters as of Friday.  Of those, 19,655 ballots have come from portions of SD-37 that are in the 2nd Supervisorial District while 24,667 have come from portions of SD-37 that are in AD-68.  10,378 came from portions of SD-37 that are in neither district.  Additionally, another 2,894 ballots arrived yesterday, but location breakdowns are not yet available for those.

Wagner has represented the 68th Assembly District since 2010 and was on the ballot there most recently in both June and November of 2014.  Moorlach represented the 2nd District Supervisorial from December 2006 until January 2015 and was on the ballot there most recently in June 2010.  Moorlach served in Countywide office from March 1995 to December 2006 and was most recently on a Countywide ballot in June 2006.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , | 9 Comments »

Jim Silva: Conservative leaders rightly back Don Wagner for Senate

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on March 9, 2015

This came over the wire to OC Political earlier today from former Assemblyman/former Supervisor Jim Silva (a slightly edited version was published in the Daily Pilot this afternoon)…

With the special election for state Senate District 37 set for March 17, the familiar lament about negative advertising fills the op-ed pages, blogs and social media sites.

He said this, she said that, he said the other thing, with each of the two front-runners denying the particular charges leveled against them.

So with all this noise, who do you believe? Who is best suited to represent the 37th Senate District in Sacramento?

The answer can be found by looking at the endorsements of the elected officials you know and trust. Assemblyman Don Wagner’s endorsements are a who’s who of Orange County conservative leaders: District Attorney Tony Rackauckas and Sheriff Sandra Hutchens both endorse him as the best candidate to keep our community safe.

Four of the five current county supervisors (Lisa Bartlett, Andrew Do, Todd Spitzer and Michelle Steel), and three of the four who served the last term with candidate John Moorlach (State Senators Janet Nguyen and Patricia Bates as well as Spitzer), have endorsed Wagner as the best candidate to work effectively in Sacramento to pass legislation that helps Orange County and California. Orange County Auditor-Controller Eric Woolery, Assessor Claude Parrish and Clerk-Recorder Hugh Nguyen likewise endorse Wagner.

All three of Orange County’s congressional representatives, Reps. Ed Royce, Mimi Walters and Dana Rohrabacher, the vast majority of the Republican caucus in the state Assembly, and many others round out the overwhelming support Wagner enjoys among those who have worked with him and Moorlach.

The reason for this overwhelming support is simple: Wagner has a well-earned reputation for taking a common-sense approach to the problems that face Orange County and the state and, while maintaining his conservative principles, working across the aisle to get legislation passed and signed by the governor.

That is why Wagner has been recognized as the legislator of the year by the Orange County Republican Party and the Orange County Business Council and has received the Collaborative Lawmaker Award from the Association of California Cities.

Orange County needs a principled and effective leader in the state Senate, and Wagner is that candidate.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Ông Don Wagner được sự ủng hộ của các lãnh đạo Vietnamese American như sau

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 4, 2015

Matt Cunningham over at Anaheim Blog has had pretty thorough coverage of the mailers in the SD-37 special election.  However, I think I got one in the mail yesterday that I’m pretty sure Matt couldn’t possibly have received (unless something is seriously wrong with Don Wagner’s mailer list).

(Click on each thumbnail below for a larger, readable version)

WagnerVietnameseMailerBack

WagnerVietnameseMailerFront

According to PDI, there are 11,980 Vietnamese voters in 7,255 houses in the 37th Senate District.

Wagner’s mailer features his endorsements from the two of the highest-ranking Vietnamese American elected officials in California: Senator Janet Nguyen and Supervisor Andrew Do.  It also features the endorsement of Congressman Ed Royce, who is popular in the Vietnamese community.

Wagner’s mailer also hits on three issues near and dear to Vietnamese voters: small business, education/affirmative action, and taxes.

The Vietnamese vote is truly up for grabs as John Moorlach and Don Wagner have similar name ID.  At the Orange County bankruptcy in 1994, there was one Vietnamese American elected official in the country (not county, country), and the Vietnamese community has become much more engaged in politics since then, but the Orange County bankruptcy is not an issue that resonates with Vietnamese voters, so with this mailer from Wagner, Moorlach will need to respond with his own Vietnamese outreach.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »