This came over the wire from Supervisor Bill Campbell’s office on Friday…
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Norby Notes 11 – Budget Deadline Looms & Top-2 Primary: A Whole New November
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on June 17, 2012
This came over the wire from Assemblyman Chris Norby’s office on Thursday…
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Posted in 65th Assembly District | Tagged: Chris Norby | 1 Comment »
Orange County Registrar of Voters Presidential Primary Election Update: Primary Election Certified
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on June 16, 2012
This came over the wire from the Registrar of Voters yesterday…
Primary Election Certified
Final Official Certification is Complete
Earlier today we completed the final process of certifying the tally of all votes cast in the June Primary Election. The final turnout was 26.5% with 17.5% of voters casting their ballot by mail and 9% through their polling place.
Neal Kelley
Registrar of Voters
Voting Booth Returns Complete
Making sure we pick up voting booths from our polling places in a timely manner is critical. We have shortened this window to less than 10 days, freeing up space for our volunteer polling locations.
Ballot Envelope Sweep
One of the last steps in the certification process is to ensure that there are no ballots that were stuck in the return envelope. This guarantees that every single vote has been counted.
Ballot Storage Underway
Ballots Are Stored for 22 Months
We have been working to store voted ballots in boxes where they will remain for 22 months. Each ballot is sorted by precinct to make any necessary reviews easier to locate.
Poll Workers 1,642,516 | VBMs Mailed: 684,836 | VBMs Returned: 277,348
Voter Outreach at the Vans Warped Tour
Our voter outreach for the November election is in full swing. We have dozens of events planned before the General Election, each designed to recruit volunteers to work in the Presidential Election. Our outreach will move to the Great Park in Irvine on June 21st as the Vans Warped music tour comes to town.
Posted in Orange County | Tagged: Orange County Registrar of Voters | Leave a Comment »
Election Night Pool: Results Are In
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 15, 2012
Now that the results are finalized and all races have been decided it is time to crown a winner for the election night pool.
And the winner is….. Dwight Robinson.
Standings were as follows for all participants:
Dwight Robinson 649 Points
Chris Emami 607 Points (and Tiebreaker over Scott Carpenter)
Scott Carpenter 607 Points
Connor Duckworth 599 Points
Mike Ferri 507 Points
Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »
Come to my Fundraiser on June 27th
Posted by Jon Dumitru on June 15, 2012
OC Political is shaping up to be a great source of information on Orange County Politics. I am excited to be a part of this endeavor and look forward to posting more substantive stories over the coming months.
For now though I wanted to take a moment to invite our readers to a fundraiser I am holding on June 27th in the great City of Orange.
Here is the info for the event:
You are Invited to a Fundraising Event for Orange City Councilman Jon Dumitru
Candidate for Orange Mayor 2012
Wednesday, June 27th
5:30pm – 7:30pm
OC Taco Joint
1724 N Tustin St. Orange, CA
$50.00 per person
$250 Corporate
$1000 Sponsor
RSVP— dumitruformayor@gmail.com or (949) 230-9609
Paid for by: Jon Dumitru for Mayor 2012 P.O. Box 4284 Orange, CA 92863
Posted in Orange | Tagged: Jon Dumitru | Leave a Comment »
Registrar of Voters: Unofficial Ballot Count Complete
Posted by Newsletter Reprint on June 14, 2012
This came over the wire from the Registrar of Voters two hours ago…
Unofficial Ballot Count Complete
June 14, 2012 – We have finished all of our ballot counting and required audit functions from the June 5th Primary Election. Registrar of Voters, Neal Kelley, will certify the final results tomorrow following the preparation of the Statement of Votes. Our election results this evening indicate “unofficial” until we finalize tomorrow. We will be including write-in votes tomorrow as well.
Posted in Orange County | Tagged: ballots, Orange County Registrar of Voters | 1 Comment »
How Fast is the Registrar of Voters Counting Ballots? When Will They Finish? Who Will This Affect?
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 14, 2012
On Friday evening, there were 17,125 uncounted ballots.
By Monday evening, there were 14,724 uncounted ballots, meaning 2,401 ballots were resolved on Monday.
By Tuesday evening, there were 9,528 uncounted ballots, meaning 5,196 ballots were resolved on Tuesday.
By last night, there were 4,625 uncounted ballots, meaning 4,903 ballots were resolved on Wednesday.
At the rate they’re going, it’s highly likely the Registrar of Voters completes the vote count today.
For visual learners:
There are only a few races that could still be affected by the outstanding ballots.
- Will Ray Grangoff close his 51-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District? Will Ken Williams close both his 115-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway and his 64-vote deficit to overtake Ray Grangroff for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District?
- Will Bill Dunlap close his 62-vote deficit to overtake John Draper for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 74th District?
Those two races are the only ones in all of Orange County where the gap between the elected and the unelected (or 2nd and 3rd place in those fighting to advance to November from primaries) is 0.3% or less. It is highly unlikely the 4,625 outstanding ballots would move the needle any more than 0.3%.
There are a couple races where the current leads would be unaffected by the remaining 4,625 ballots, but where the gap could close enough to lead the 3rd or 4th place candidate to pay for a recount to advance to November from the primaries. (I’m assuming no one’s going to pay for a recount for any party’s Central Committee.)
| 69th Assembly District | ||
| Tom Daly (D) | 10,862 | 39.3% |
| Jose “Joe” Moreno (R) | 5,933 | 21.5% |
| Julio Perez (D) | 5,649 | 20.4% |
| Michele Martinez (D) | 4,614 | 16.7% |
| Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D) | 594 | 2.1% |
Team Perez is likely contemplating whether they’ll pay for a recount if they get within 1% of Jose Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno). Perez’s allies spent six figures trying to elect him, so the cost of a recount wouldn’t be out of the question for them.
| 72nd Assembly District | ||
| Troy Edgar (R) | 17,968 | 28.0% |
| Travis Allen (R) | 12,726 | 19.8% |
| Joe Dovinh (D) | 12,353 | 19.3% |
| Long Pham (R) | 12,325 | 19.2% |
| Albert Ayala (D) | 8,756 | 13.7% |
Long Pham is likely contemplating if he will pay for a recount if he gets within 0.5% of Travis Allen. It’s unlikely Joe Dovinh or his team have the financial resources to pay for a recount. Pham would need to dig into his own pockets for a recount. He’s already spent $100,000 of his personal funds on his campaign and making 2nd place to get to the November general election against Troy Edgar may be the only way he recoups that $100,000.
The 1% for Perez vs. the 0.5% for Pham is on the basis that Perez would be more aggressive than Pham in pursuing a recount, as Perez’s allies spent more and have deeper pockets to pay for a recount while Pham spent less and has more shallow (less deep?) pockets.
Posted in 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, Orange County, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Albert Ayala, ballots, Bill Dunlap, Francisco Barragan, Jeff Lalloway, Joe Dovinh, John Draper, Jose Moreno, Julio Perez, Ken L. Williams Jr., Long Pham, Michele Martinez, Orange County Registrar of Voters, Paco Barragan, Ray Grangoff, Tom Daly, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | Leave a Comment »
AD-69: Traditional D vs. R Match-Up in Daly vs. Moreno; Martinez Plays Spoiler for Perez
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 13, 2012
On Monday, I took a look at AD-72, and in this post, I’ll be looking at another of OC’s multi-candidate Assembly races that has now narrowed down to two: AD-69.
Conventional wisdom held that if any OC district was going to feature an intraparty battle in November (courtesy of Prop 14), it was going to be the Republicans in AD-74 between Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle or the Democrats in AD-69 between OC Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly and either labor leader Julio Perez or Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez. (Unexpectedly, it was AD-72 that created OC’s sole intraparty battle with an all-Republican November matchup between Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.)
AD-69 will come down to Daly and Republican OC Eligibility Technician Jose “Joe” Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno).
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We here at OC Political predicted Daly vs. Moreno here, here, and here. (While we made several predictions that went wrong [like nearly everybody else, we failed to predict Edgar vs. Allen in AD-72], we’ve been consistent in predicting Daly 1st and Moreno 2nd in AD-69.)
This race was incredibly evenly divided. Daly was far and away the top vote-getter, getting nearly double the number of votes of the second-place candidate.
| Tom Daly | 10,724 | 39.6% |
| Jose “Joe” Moreno | 5,843 | 21.6% |
| Julio Perez | 5,440 | 20.1% |
| Michele Martinez | 4,506 | 16.6% |
| Francisco “Paco” Barragan | 577 | 2.1% |
Some readers may be wondering if Perez could still catch Moreno with the remaining uncounted ballots. There just aren’t enough out there. 27,090 out of the 417,965 ballots counted in Orange County so far cast votes in AD-69, which equals 6.5% of the votes. There are 9,528 uncounted ballots remaining in Orange County, which leaves approximately 619 votes remaining in AD-69. To make up his current 403-vote deficit, Perez would need to be ahead of Moreno by 65.1%. If Moreno captures 10% of the vote, that would require Perez get 75.1%, leaving just 14.9% to be split between Daly, Martinez, and Barragan. Let’s say AD-69 has a disproportionate share of the outstanding ballots, and double that to 1,238 ballots remaining in AD-69, Perez would need to be ahead of Moreno by 32.6%. That is a tough margin for Perez. If Moreno captures 10% of the vote, that would require Perez get 42.6%, leaving just 47.4% to be split between Daly, Martinez, and Barragan.
It’s clear from the results that Martinez was Perez’s spoiler. If just 10% of Martinez’s votes had gone to Perez, he would have surpassed Moreno and advanced to a run-off against Daly. Martinez and Perez were clearly the liberal Democrats in the race, with Daly and Barragan the more moderate Democrats, and Moreno was the Republican. The lion’s share of Martinez’s votes would have gone to Perez.
It’s now clear that without Michele Martinez in the race, union-backed Democrat Julio Perez would have advanced to the November run-off against business-backed Democrat Tom Daly.
Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: Allan Mansoor, Jose Moreno, Julio Perez, Leslie Daigle, Michele Martinez, Paco Barragan, spoiler, Tom Daly, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | 10 Comments »
Special-Interest Spitzer Spends $301,247 or $5.84 Per Vote; Pauly Spends $20,034 or $0.86 Per Vote
Posted by The Rock of OC on June 12, 2012
Nguyen and Emami granted HBK one last post about the Third Supervisorial District but they also granted me one last post about the race between Deborah Pauly and Todd Spitzer.
Half-Term Career Politician Spitzer didn’t even wait for election night to end before “He also confirmed that he plans to run for Orange County district attorney if the office is open in 2014.” http://www.ocregister.com/news/pauly-357524-spitzer-county.html
The great columnist, Steven Greenhut, called Spitzer out on it: http://www.calwatchdog.com/2012/06/06/spitzer-already-disses-his-voters/
Special-Interest Spitzer spent $301,247 to get 51,607 votes, which equals $5.84 per vote.
Pauly spent $20,034 to get 23,305 votes, which equals $0.86 per vote.
If Pauly had spent $301,247, her $0.86 per vote rate would have produced more than 350,000 votes.
If Spitzer had spent $20,034, his $5.84 per vote rate would have produced just 3,400 votes.
It’s clear the Third Supervisorial District race was another example of big money from unions beating the people.
However, it’s only a matter of time before the people rise up and fight back. The people of Wisconsin have already risen up. When will the people of California?
Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: Deborah Pauly, Todd Spitzer | 1 Comment »
Santa Ana Santora Building sale cancelled
Posted by Thomas Gordon on June 12, 2012
Irvine based Newsong Church has pulled out of a deal to buy the historic 84 year old Santora Building from developer Michael Harrah for $6.2 Million.
According to sources, Harrah has allowed the building to deteriorate and Newsong requested repairs be made to bring it up to standard. It appears that Harrah declined the request.
What impact this will have on Michael Harrah’s One Broadway Plaza development is yet to be seen.
Posted in Santa Ana | Tagged: Artist Village, Santa Ana, Santora Building | Leave a Comment »
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