Now we get to what many people think will be the most competitive race in Orange County. I am afraid that I have bad news on this one for Democrats. This district is a Fullerton fight between longtime Fullertonian Chris Norby and Fullerton Mayor Sharon Quirk-Silva.

The district though spans even larger than Fullerton having Buena Park, Cypress, Stanton, & La Palma also within its boundaries:

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

In the interest of full disclosure my business partner and one of my co-editors on the blog Chris Nguyen has a full-time job working for the district staff of Chris Norby. I also want to point out that I did not talk to Chris Nguyen prior to writing this and he did not have any influence on this analysis.

One might argue that the voter registration is extremely close with Republicans at 38.0%, Democrats at 36.6%, and DTS at 21.0%. Although Republicans have just a 1.4% registration advantage DTS voters lean-to the right in this Orange County only district.

Looking at all 2010 races in this area the only race that Democrats won was the race for State Treasurer where the Democrats won by an amazing 0.14%. The other factor looking at things from an elections standpoint is the glorified poll that took place in June:

Member of the State Assembly; District 65

• Chris Norby, Republican ………. 29,917 votes 58.8%
• Sharon Quirk-Silva, Democratic ………. 20,936 votes 41.2%

My thoughts before the primary were that Quirk-Silva needed to finish with at least 45% of the vote to be competitive in June. These primary results surprised even me as I thought Norby would get around 56% of the vote. As you can see from the results Norby is positioned well based on the voters position in June.

Financially Norby also has an advantage having $136,636.01 in his account as of June 30th and Quirk-Silva having a bit less with $106,070.16 in her account as of the same time period. These are two very comparable numbers, but the fact of the matter is that a challenger (especially one with a poor June showing) needs to outspend their opponent.

With these factors already in place I will now point out a huge wild card in this race. They both have bi-partisan support amongst elected officials in this race. Stanton Mayor Carol Warren has crossed party lines to endorse Norby. Quirk-Silva has the support of Republican Brea Councilman Ron Garcia (Brea is not in the 65th). As for elected Councilmembers in the 65th Assembly district Norby has the advantage of 21 endorsements while Quirk-Silva lags behind at 5.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Chris Norby

Chris Emami wrote last week on this blog about Sharon Quirk-Silva’s lack of support and mentioned my letter to the editor in the Orange County Register.  If you missed it, here’s my letter again:

Mayor Sharon Quirk-Silva, a Democrat, complained about “partisan gridlock” in Sacramento [“Assembly race called key to state power balance,” Local, May 21]. What partisan gridlock? She is a Democrat. Her party controls the entire California state government.

The governor, attorney general, controller and all other statewide officers are Democrats. Nearly two-thirds of the seats in each house of the Legislature are held by Democrats: 52 out of 80 Assembly seats and 25 out of 40 Senate seats. It doesn’t even require a two-thirds majority to pass the budget anymore, thanks to Proposition 25 (passed in 2010) allowing budgets to be passed by a simple majority.

What partisan gridlock is Quirk-Silva talking about? Every lever of power in Sacramento is controlled by Democrats.

Taxes are just about the only thing left that requires a two-thirds vote. Electing Quirk-Silva would give Democrats the two-thirds majority they need to raise taxes on the hardworking people of California. It’s clear that there is one thing Quirk-Silva means when she talks about ending the partisan gridlock: she wants to raise taxes.