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2012 General Election Predictions: 55th Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 17, 2012

If you are reading this I want to note that I am currently out of the country on vacation to Spain for 2 weeks and have scheduled my prediction posts to go off for this week. So, don’t be offended if I don’t reply to comments you leave behind.

The 55th Assembly District is another hybrid Orange County, Los Angeles County, and San Bernardino County seat represented by my former Assembly Representative Curt Hagman:

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

As you can see Orange County clearly has a majority of this seat. However, both candidates running for this seat are from outside of Orange C0unty. Hagman is from San Bernardino County while Fritchle is from Los Angeles County.

The results from June tell the true story though of what to expect. We had a race where Fritchle did not even finish ahead of his party registration:

Member of the State Assembly; District 55

  • Curt Hagman, Republican ………. 40,268 votes 69.1%
  • Gregg D. Fritchle, Democratic ………. 17,994 votes 30.9%

In case you were wondering Republicans have 41.7% registration, Democrats have 31.6% registration, and DTS have 22.8% registration.

Even if Hagman did no campaigning whatsoever he would still win the race based on this massive victory that he had in June. The campaign finance reports from the Secretary of State office tell us that the money is also one-sided as Hagman had just over $225,000 after the primary and Fritchle did not even raise enough to trigger online filing.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Curt Hagman

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