Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on October 22, 2012
Another mailer that I received over the weekend was this piece paid for by the Republican Party of Orange County. It is another 8.5 x 11 piece with a huge OC GOP logo on the front. On the back it compares Lucille Kring and Jordan Brandman.
Here is the piece:
Posted in Anaheim | Tagged: Jordan Brandman, Lucille Kring | 3 Comments »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on October 22, 2012
The mail has finally started to ramp up in my household. I received 2 pieces this weekend including this nifty 8.5 x 11 piece from the folks backing No on 30 and Yes on 32:
Posted in California, Uncategorized | Tagged: Proposition 30, Proposition 32 | 1 Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on October 17, 2012
Got an e-mail from Probolsky research yesterday that showed Travis Allen leading Troy Edgar by a slim margin in the hotly contested 72nd Assembly District race. It is important to note that a vast majority ov voters are undecided but this is clearly promising news for Travis Allen.
Here are the poll results:
On Saturday, October 13, 2012 Probolsky Research conducted a telephone survey of likely voters in California Assembly District 72.
TRAVIS ALLEN LEADS TROY EDGAR
Allen enjoys a lead over Edgar (28.0% to 22.1%) in the race for the 72
nd Assembly District. However, nearly half of voters remain undecided:
Question:
“An election for California State Assembly District 72 will be held in November. If you were voting today for State Assembly, for whom would you vote? Pick one. If you have already voted, please let me know who you chose. Travis Allen, Prefers Republican Party, Small Business Owner OR Troy Edgar, Prefers Republican Party, Businessman/Mayor.”
A total of 307 surveys were collected. A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/- 5.7% with a 95% degree of confidence. Interviews were conducted with voters on both landline and cell phones and were conducted in English, Spanish and Vietnamese languages.
The turnout model consisted of those voters who voted at least 1 of 11/10 or 6/12, OR voted in at least 2 of 2/08, 6/08, 11/08, 5/09 or 6/10, with at least 1 being 11-08 PLUS those who registered to vote after 6/12.
This represents 62.2% of voters and 72.3% of households.
Probolsky Research LLC specializes in opinion research on behalf of business, government, political, special interest and media clients.
Posted in 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: Adam Probolsky, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | 5 Comments »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 26, 2012
I promise that we are not turning into Red County and will keep the overseas posts to a minimum, but as I mentioned in my earlier post here is the video I took from the protest yesterday.
The protesters were back today as rumored around 6:00 PM and they are still outside along with the police helicopters circling above the neighborhood at almost 12:00 at night.
Interestingly I was having dinner at a cafe right next to the protests and considered live blogging the events but realized that it would get really boring talking about people constantly walking in a straight line.
Posted in International | Tagged: Spain | 1 Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 26, 2012
I did not plan to do any blogging while on vacation but since I am currently living in an apartment that was surrounded by political protesters yesterday I felt compelled to do so. Forgive the short length of the post, but I want to get back to enjoying Spain and will let the pictures give you an idea of the area.
Yesterday afternoon protesters took to the streets to rally against budget cuts being made by Spanish Parliament. They started their gathering at the huge fountain near the botanical garden. Here is a picture of where it started:
Here is a look at the neighborhood where I am staying which was flooded with protesters and helicopters late last night.
Nearby this location is the Ministry of Sanitation & Political Science which I have a picture of below.
You can even still see the reporters setup waiting for another protest to take place which is rumored to start some time this evening.
I will follow up with details on the protest and Spain’s governmental regulations/austerity measures that led to this protest sometime next week after I get back to California. This is of course unless Chris Nguyen steals my thunder and does an article first.
I will also add some photos in a later post of pictures from the actual protest and possibly a video if I can get it to upload.
Posted in International | Tagged: Spain | 2 Comments »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 20, 2012
This race will be a lot more mild after the fight that we saw in June between Allan Mansoor and Leslie Daigle. Now we have a partisan fight between Allan Mansoor (R) and Robert Rush (D). The 74th Assembly District is a conservative South County seat:
Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.
As you can see Republicans have a registration of 42.7%, Democrats 29.3%, and DTS 23.2% (remember DTS voters will lean conservative in this district). With that being said we almost $300,000 pumped into this race in expenditures on behalf of Leslie Daigle. These expenditures helped her jump all the way to last place.
The results from June can be viewed here:
Member of the State Assembly; District 74
Mansoor fell under 50%, however, the reason for this is likely the hit pieces that the Daigle campaign did against him. My gut feeling is that the majority of people who voted for Daigle will vote for Mansoor in November. The reason for this assertion is because partisan Republicans were split between Daigle and Mansoor. These Republicans will only have one candidate to vote for from their party in November.
Financially Robert Rush is in the same ballpark as Mansoor. Rush may have over $55,000 after the primary and Mansoor has just over $50,000/ Rush is going to need a lot more money to make up the deficit he is already facing after June.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:
Allan Mansoor
Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: Allan Mansoor, Leslie Daigle, Robert Rush | 1 Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 19, 2012
It appears that I was wrong about Don Wagner still having the most conservative district in California as it appears that the new AD 73 is a bit more conservative:
Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of their map.
Republicans won every race in 2010 within the boundaries of this district and registration shows that 48.9% of voters are Republican and only 25.6% of voters are Democrats. The conservative leaning DTS voters make up around 21.2% of the electorate.
An even bigger factor is that Harkey had the largest margin of victory in Orange County:
Member of the State Assembly; District 73
This result makes it clear that Corbett has no chance in November. It also doesn’t help that he has not raised enough money to trigger online filing. Harkey on the other hand has over $164,000.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:
Diane Harkey
Posted in 73rd Assembly District | Tagged: Diane Harkey, James Corbett | 7 Comments »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 19, 2012
THis race is the one I am predicting will be the closest and most heated in Orange County. Surprisingly 2 Republicans advanced from the June election to make this race as interesting as it is. The district is somewhat comparable to a more coastal version of Allan Mansoor’s old assembly district when it was AD 68:
Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.
Party affiliation is meaningless in this race because they are both Republicans but it will be interesting to see which candidate targets the 31.6% of registered Democrats first. It is also interesting to note that Huntington Beach is the largest part of the district which is where Allen is from. Los Alamitos is the smallest city on the district which is where Edgar is from.
The results in June are inconclusive because it was close enough to where anybody could end up a winner in November. Here are the June results:
Member of the State Assembly; District 72
It is pretty amazing to see who close Allen, Dovinh, and Pham were to that 2nd place slot. Looking it the results it appears that Edgar has an advantage going into november which would mean that Travis Allen needs to raise his favorability amongst voters before voting in November.
Fundraising is the kicker for me, as Edgar has just under $100,000 in his account after the primary and Allen has just over $10,000 in his account. This can change with campaigning which will mean that this race will be extremely close. My prediction is based on the campaign as of right now and I reserve the right to change my opinion on this one:
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:
Troy Edgar
Posted in 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: Albert Ayala, Joe Dovinh, Long Pham, Travis Allen, Troy Edgar | 2 Comments »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 18, 2012
This prediction won’t make Republicans happy, but my goal here is to be realistic not optimistic.The 69th Assembly District has been a nightmare for Republicans since forever. The district is an Orange County seat that covers Santa Ana and part of Anaheim:
Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.
As you can see Democrats have a registration of 50.2%, Republican have a registration of 28.0%, and DTS have a registration of 18.2%. Republicans won nothing in this district back in 2010 but on an interesting note these are socially conservative Democrats as Prop 8 passed by over 20 points.
In the June election Jose Moreno advanced to June but he actually did worse than I projected falling almost 7% below Republican registration. Here are the results:
Member of the State Assembly; District 69
Francisco Barragans total just utterly shocks me as I cannot believe he only got 605 votes. As you can see from the above numbers Moreno finished almost 18% behind Tom Daly and he was the only Republican in the race.
On an interesting note Daly is not doing so well on fundraising with only $22,000 left in his account after the primary election. Sadly Moreno is doing worse without the fundraising ability to trigger online filing.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:
Tom Daly
Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: Jose Moreno, Tom Daly | 2 Comments »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 18, 2012
I have heard that this is the most Republican seat in California prior to 2010 redistricting, and this might still be the most conservative seat looking at the numbers.
Looking at the makeup of the 68th Assembly district it is apparent that not only do Republicans have almost a 20% registration advantage but the 21% of DTS voters are some of the most conservative voters in California:
The numbers here are pretty indicative of a big Wagner victory in November especially considering Republicans won every partisan election here in 2010. Despite the slim odds that we see on the map I will still break down this race as I have done the other ones.
Wagner has strong name ID here having not only served in the Assembly but also for his time on the South Orange County Community College District. Avalos is best known for her time as perennial candidate for Congress running against Ed Royce.
This race much like many others also had a dress rehearsal in June with the results leading me to believe Wagner will coast in November:
Member of the State Assembly; District 68
Financially Wagner is also in much better shape than his opponent having raised over $70,000. Avalos has not raised enough to trigger online filing.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:
Don Wagner
Posted in 68th Assembly District | Tagged: Christina Avalos, Don Wagner | Leave a Comment »
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