OC Political

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Archive for September, 2012

2012 General Election Predictions: 68th Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 18, 2012

I have heard that this is the most Republican seat in California prior to 2010 redistricting, and this might still be the most conservative seat looking at the numbers.

Looking at the makeup of the 68th Assembly district it is apparent that not only do Republicans have almost a 20% registration advantage but the 21% of DTS voters are some of the most conservative voters in California:

The numbers here are pretty indicative of a big Wagner victory in November especially considering Republicans won every partisan election here in 2010. Despite the slim odds that we see on the map I will still break down this race as I have done the other ones.

Wagner has strong name ID here having not only served in the Assembly but also for his time on the South Orange County Community College District. Avalos is best known for her time as perennial candidate for Congress running against Ed Royce.

This race much like many others also had a dress rehearsal in June with the results leading me to believe Wagner will coast in November:

Member of the State Assembly; District 68

  • Donald P. “Don” Wagner, Republican ………. 43,241 votes 69.2%
  • Christina Avalos, Democratic ………. 19,254 votes 30.8%

Financially Wagner is also in much better shape than his opponent having raised over $70,000. Avalos has not raised enough to trigger online filing.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Don Wagner

Posted in 68th Assembly District | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Did Garden Grove Councilman Steve Jones Endorse Tom Daly or Jose Moreno for AD-69?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on September 18, 2012

Almost five months ago, the Tom Daly for Assembly campaign issued a press release called, “Four Garden Grove City Councilmembers Endorse Tom Daly for Assembly” (which you can still find on Daly’s web site, which we ran on OC Political, and which Liberal OC ran).  You can also find Jones still listed in Daly’s endorsement list.

Jones sought the Republican Party of Orange County’s endorsement last night.  Central Committee Member Tim Whitacre pulled Jones from consideration because Jones had endorsed Democrat Tom Daly (as the press release above indicated).

When questioned, Jones denied that he endorsed Daly (contradicting the press release above).

OC GOP Chairman Scott Baugh then asked if Jones had endorsed AD-69 Republican Candidate Jose “Joe” Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno).

Jones said he had not but then immediately endorsed Moreno in front of the ~150 people in attendance at the OC GOP Central Committee meeting.

With Jones denying that he endorsed Daly and with him endorsing Moreno live, the Central Committee then had a unanimous voice vote to endorse Jones.

The discrepancy still needs to be resolved however.  Was the Daly press release from the spring erroneous, and is Daly still erroneously listing Jones? Or did Jones flip his endorsement just last night?  Has Jones contacted Daly to discuss the present status of his endorsement?

Posted in 69th Assembly District, Garden Grove, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

OC GOP Endorsements for City Council, School Board, Water District, and Sanitary District

Posted by Chris Nguyen on September 18, 2012

Below, find the list of all the endorsements made by the OC GOP for the November 2012 elections.  (This list covers the endorsements made in the August and September meetings.  This does not include October endorsements, though those endorsements won’t come until October 15, a measly three weeks before the election.)

The Liberal OC reported the DPOC August endorsements here.  The DPOC’s next endorsements will be on September 24.

Here’s the OC GOP list…

City Council

  • Aliso Viejo City Council: Greg Ficke
  • Aliso Viejo City Council: Mike Munzing
  • Anaheim City Council: Brian Neil Chuchua
  • Anaheim City Council: Lucille Kring
  • Brea City Council: Steven Vargas
  • Buena Park City Council: Baron Night
  • Costa Mesa City Council: Colin McCarthy
  • Costa Mesa City Council: Steve Mensinger
  • Costa Mesa City Council: Gary Monahan
  • Cypress City Council: Rob Johnson
  • Dana Point City Council: Carlos N. Olvera
  • Fountain Valley City Council: Steve A. Nagel
  • Fullerton City Council: Travis Kiger
  • Fullerton City Council: Bruce Whitaker
  • Garden Grove City Council: Steve Jones
  • Huntington Beach City Council: Devin Dwyer
  • Huntington Beach City Council: Erik Peterson
  • Huntington Beach City Council: Dave Sullivan
  • Irvine Mayor: Steven S. Choi
  • Irvine City Council: Lynn Schott
  • Irvine City Council: Christina L. Shea
  • La Palma City Council: Peter Kim
  • Laguna Beach City Council: Steve Dicterow
  • Laguna Niguel City Council: Laurie Davies
  • Lake Forest City Council: Adam Nick
  • Lake Forest City Council: Dwight Robinson
  • Los Alamitos City Council: Dean Grose
  • Orange Mayor: Jon Dumitru
  • Orange City Council: Ray Grangoff
  • Orange City Council: Mark A. Murphy
  • Rancho Santa Margarita City Council, Full Term: Tony Beall
  • Rancho Santa Margarita City Council, Full Term: Carol Gamble
  • Rancho Santa Margarita City Council, Short Term: Brad McGirr
  • San Clemente City Council: Mike Mortenson
  • Santa Ana Mayor: George M. Collins
  • Santa Ana City Council, Ward 3: Brett Elliott Franklin (Dual Endorsement of Franklin and Hart)
  • Santa Ana City Council, Ward 3: Charles Hart (Dual Endorsement of Hart and Franklin)
  • Santa Ana City Council, Ward 5: Karina Onofre
  • Tustin City Council: Allan Bernstein
  • Tustin City Council: John Nielsen
  • Tustin City Council: Charles E. “Chuck” Puckett
  • Yorba Linda City Council: Nancy Rikel
  • Yorba Linda City Council: Mark Schwing

City Ballot Measures

  • Yes on Measure V – Costa Mesa
  • Yes on Measure Z – Huntington Beach
  • Yes on Measure FF – Orange
  • Yes on Measure HH – Tustin

School District

  • Capistrano Unified School District, Trustee Area 2: Jim Reardon
  • Capistrano Unified School District, Trustee Area 3: Steve R. Lang
  • Capistrano Unified School District, Trustee Area 5: William “Bill” Perkins
  • Cypress School District: Alexandria Coronado
  • Fountain Valley School District: Jeanne Galindo
  • Irvine Unified School District: Michelle Ollada Alipio
  • Ocean View School District: Debbie Cotton
  • Orange Unified School District, Trustee Area 3: Alexia L. Deligianni
  • Santa Ana Unified School District: Cecilia “Ceci” Iglesias

Water District

  • East Orange County Water District: Douglass S. Davert
  • Mesa Consolidated Water District, Division 2: James R. Fisler
  • Mesa Consolidated Water District, Division 3: Ethan Temianka
  • Municipal Water District of Orange County, Division 3: Larry R. Crandall
  • Municipal Water District of Orange County, Division 7: Susan Hinman
  • Orange County Water District, Division 2: Denis R. Bilodeau
  • Orange County Water District, Division 3: Roger C. Yoh

Sanitary District

  • Costa Mesa Sanitary District: Don Harper
  • Costa Mesa Sanitary District: Jeff R. Mathews

 

Posted in Aliso Viejo, Anaheim, Brea, Buena Park, Capistrano Unified School District, Costa Mesa, Costa Mesa Sanitary District, Cypress, Cypress School District, Dana Point, Democrat Central Committee, East Orange County Water District, Fountain Valley, Fountain Valley School District, Fullerton, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Irvine Unified School District, La Palma, Laguna Beach, Laguna Niguel, Lake Forest, Los Alamitos, Mesa Consolidated Water District, Municipal Water District of Orange County, Newport Beach, Ocean View School District, Orange, Orange County Water District, Orange Unified School District, Rancho Santa Margarita, Republican Central Committee, San Clemente, Santa Ana, Santa Ana Unified School District, Tustin, Yorba Linda | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Live from OC GOP Central Committee

Posted by Chris Nguyen on September 17, 2012

Okay, lots of procedural things out of the way…

7:20 PM: Oath administered.  I’m officially an alternate.

7:21 PM: Officeholders and candidates in the room introducing themselves: Baron Night, Dean Grose, Jose Moreno, Brett Franklin, Charles Hart, Dwight Robinson, Tony Beall, Mike Munzing, Kim McCarthy, Mike Mortenson, Debbie Cotton, Elizabeth Emken, Jim Dahl, Karina Onofre, Ellen Adonizzio, Jim Reardon, Carlos Olvera, Brian Chuchua, Roy Byrnes, Steven Vargas, Diane Harkey, Lucille Kring, Brett Barbre, Denis Bilodeau, Jon Dumitru, Deborah Pauly, Alexia Deligianni, Cathy Schlict, Mark McCurdy, Jeff Mathews, Lynn Schott, Bruce Whitaker, Wendy Bucknum, Ceci Iglesias, Barry Levinson, Susan Hinman, Sam Allevato, Erik Peterson, Robert Hammond, Jennifer Fitzgerald, Brad McGirr, Christina Shea, Don Wagner, Alexandria Coronado, Chuck Puckett, John Nielsen, Doug Davert, George Collins, Adam Nick, Steve Nagel, Michelle Ollada Alipio, Bill Brough, Lupe Moreno, and Chris Norby.

7:27 PM: Minutes approved.

7:28 PM: Chairman Scott Baugh discusses the importance of candidates stepping up at all times not just around the candidates’ own elections.

7:29 PM: At the request of Chairman Scott Baugh, Orange County Board of Education Trustee Robert Hammond discussed being at the County School Boards Association meeting where the attendees complained low voter turnout will allow “the Republicans from Orange County to defeat Prop 30 and Prop 38.”

7:30 PM: Baugh describes the 13 open OC GOP GOTV HQs and mentions 3 more are on the way.

7:31 PM: Baugh speaks of the Costa Mesa Charter Amendment being a priority of the Republican Party.

7:33 PM: Committee Alternate Bill Dunlap speaks of the importance of getting out the vote.  Only 26% of OC voters cast their ballots in June.  He describes a number of party-sponsored get-out-the-vote efforts.

7:36 PM: Baugh delivers the 1st Vice Chair’s report on behalf of John Warner: the report included information about the next countywide precinct walk as well as information about Congressman John Campbell agreeing to fund a GOTV headquarters in the City of Orange.

7:38 PM: Fullerton RWF President Beverly Gunter speaks of RWF’s efforts to fundraise, phone bank, and precinct walk for candidates.  She presents a $900 check from RWF to subsidize

7:39 PM: My boss from my day job, Chris Norby, speaks of his race for re-election.

Endorsements Committee Report

7:41 PM: Endorsements Committee Chair Mark Bucher begins his long-awaited report.  He speaks of Prop 32’s 55%-37% lead despite “Yes on Prop 32” not starting any advertising until today while “No on Prop 32” had been pounding away for a month.  He also speaks of the finances of the Prop 32 battle.

7:43 PM: Now he actually begins his long-awaited report on endorsements…

7:44 PM: Bucher thanks fellow Endorsements Committee Members Chandra Chell, Thomas Gordon, Ray Grangoff, Matt Harper, and Mary Young.  He describes the endorsement procedures and goes over the list.  (Here’s the list again.  Here and here are the live blogs of those meetings.)

7:48 PM: Parliamentarian Kermit Marsh says the Endorsements Committee may not recommend a dual endorsement while the Central Committee can make a dual endorsement (in reference to the contest between Brett Franklin and Charles Hart for Santa Ana City Council, Ward 3).

7:50 PM: Bucher continues his report briefly summarizing the more controversial contests.

7:52 PM: The list is moved with the following pulled from the list:

  • Sam Allevato for San Juan Capistrano City Council (original recommendation was postpone to October) pulled by Diane Harkey
  • Lynn Schott for Irvine City Council (original recommendation was for endorsement) pulled by Scott Baugh
  • Measure FF (original recommendation was for endorsement of Yes on FF) pulled by Deborah Pauly
  • Jennifer Fitzgerald for Fullerton City Council (original recommendation was for endorsement) pulled by Tim Whitacre
  • Brian Neil Chuchua for Anaheim City Council (original recommendation was no endorsement) pulled by Tim Whitacre
  • All Mission Viejo candidates (original recommendation was for endorsement of Frank Ury and Wendy Bucknum, but not Cathy Schlict nor Ed Saches) pulled by Scott Peotter

San Juan Capistrano City Council – Sam Allevato

8:02 PM: Debate begins.  State Assemblywoman Diane Harkey moves and Lucille Kring seconds to endorse Sam Allevato for San Juan Capistrano City Council.  Allan Bartlett and Deborah Pauly will speak against.

8:04 PM: Harkey speaks of being dragged through the mud in politics.  She states many lies have been spread about Allevato.  She says there are five high schools in San Juan Capistrano: one public and four private.  She speaks of heavy congestion from the proximity of the schools.  She gets booed when she attempts to speak over time.

8:07 PM: Baugh reiterates the time limits.

8:08 PM: Pauly speaks of the controversy about the tax on religious schools and the property tax increases.  She speaks of the importance of following the process in which the endorsements committee recommended delaying consideration of San Juan Capistrano City Council until October.

8:10 PM: In an unusual action, Harkey speaks again in favor of Allevato since no one else is planning to speak in support of him.  She speaks of the debt and septic issues in the City of San Juan Capistrano.

8:13 PM: Slight delay as speakers exchange places.

8:14 PM: Bartlett praises Harkey.  He speaks against Allevato due to Allevato sending a 2010 mailer supporting Larry Agran and opposing Jeff Lalloway.

8:16 PM: Jon Fleischman asks for the Endorsements Committee’s rationale behind recommending a delay until October.

8:16 PM: Bucher explains several candidates applied late and that many people had concerns about the candidates.

8:17 PM: Don Wagner asks about the Allevato Irvine mailer that was pro-Agran and anti-Lalloway.

8:17 PM: Allevato says he works for Forde & Mollrich but not on the campaign side.  A quote was included from him as a retired IPD Lieutenant supporting Larry Agran.

8:18 PM: Bartlett says, “For the record, Jeff Lalloway opposes the endorsement of Allevato.”  Harkey says, “For the record, Jeff’s my alternate!”  Baugh rules both out of order.

8:19 PM: In response to a question, Allevato defends the tax on the religious school as a student impact fee that the school agreed to pay.  He goes on to explain the intricacies of student impact fees in San Juan Capistrano.

8:23 PM: Harkey asks Allevato to explain various land use decisions.

8:24 PM: Allevato speaks of various issues related to sewage costs from a plant in San Juan Capistrano.

8:26 PM: Baugh states it looks like the committee is not supportive of the motion to endorse Allevato.

8:26 PM: Harkey says he wants to go for it, and his wishes should be respected.

8:27 PM: Allevato says he (and Ginny Kerr) answered his questionnaire on time and got his signatures.   Allevato says the other candidates failed to do so.

8:27 PM: Bartlett moves and John Draper seconds a substitute motion to delay to October (restoring the Endorsement Committee’s original recommendation).

8:28 PM: By voice vote, the committee refers the Allevato endorsement back to the Endorsements Committee.

Elizabeth Emken Speaks

8:29 PM: Bucher asks Baugh to let Elizabeth Emken speak, and Baugh agrees.

8:30 PM: Former CRP Chair Ron Nehring praises the OC GOP.  He praises the efforts of the OC GOP on behalf of Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Costa Mesa Mayor Pro Tem Jim Righeimer.  He speaks of watching the DNC.  He praises Mitt Romney and blasts Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.  He begins to introduce Elizabeth Emken by speaking of the importance of fighting for every seat from Mosquito Abatement District to U.S. Senate.

8:33 PM: Emken demands that Feinstein discuss her record.  Emken speaks of her own education and financial background.  She speaks of her efforts on behalf of her autistic son and other autistic children.  She speaks of her efforts to lobby Congress.  She says, “Obamacare is bad for everyone.”  She challenged Feinstein to debate and notes even the LA Times says Emken deserves the right to debate Feinstein.  She says the LA Daily News and the OC Register agree.  She says 123,000 people have seen the footage from ABC 7 in Los Angeles of Feinstein refusing to agree to debate.  Emken asks for money and plugs her web site.

Santa Ana City Council, Ward 3 – Brett Franklin and Charles Hart

8:41 PM: There was a quick discussion that although the Endorsements Committee did not have the power to recommend a dual endorsement in Santa Ana City Council, Ward 3, that the Central Committee does have that power and so both Brett Franklin and Charles Hart are endorsed.

8:42 PM: Baugh asks for a vote again just to make sure.  The Central Committee votes unanimously to endorse both Franklin and Hart.

Irvine City Council – Lynn Schott

8:43 PM: Baugh speaks of the 25-year inability of the Republican Party to remove Larry Agran from the Irvine City Council.  He speaks of the OC GOP prioritizing Costa Mesa this year.  Baugh asks Lynn Schott about her former alternate Patrick Rodgers who attacked the Costa Mesa Council majority and the Costa Mesa Charter.

8:46 PM: Schott says Rodgers was a strong supporter in 2010.  She says she was completely unaware of Rodgers’s statements until the Endorsements Committee meeting.  She says she tries to not read blogs.  She condemns Rodgers’s statements and “repudiates” the attempt to frame Righeimer for DUI.  Rodgers admitted to her that he had gone too far.  She obtained his resignation on September 7 (the same week that she learned of his statements).  She says she fully supports Prop 32 and opposes the unions’ efforts to “consolidate their power over choosing City Councilmembers” and other governmental bodies.  She says she is against defined benefit retirement programs and favors defined contribution retirement programs.

8:51 PM: Schott is endorsed by a unanimous voice vote.

Orange City Measure FF

8:51 PM: Villa Park Councilwoman Deborah Pauly speaks of being contacted by numerous Republicans expressing their concerns about Measure FF.  Pauly says the “No on FF” side did not get a chance to speak to the Endorsements Committee.  She says thousands of  Republicans, independents, and Democrats signed a petition to get a referendum to force FF on to the ballot.  She says this is an issue that is divisive to Republicans, and she moves that the Republican Party take no stance on Measure FF.

8:54 PM: Orange Mayor Pro Tem Denis Bilodeau speaks of the landowner wishing to build 36 homes on 50 acres of land on a 4-1 vote, who he notes the 1 is a Democrat who is receiving bundled campaign contributions from “No on FF.”  Bilodeau says it is a property rights issue and makes a substitute motion to endorse Measure FF (reverting to the original recommendation from the Endorsements Committee).

8:57 PM: Marcia Gilchrist speaks in favor of Bilodeau’s substitute motion.  She says the people objecting to the construction of the homes are trying to impeded a property owner from doing what they want with their own land.

8:58 PM: By voice vote, the OC GOP endorses “Yes on Measure FF.”

Fullerton City Council – Jennifer Fitzgerald

9:00 PM: Tim Whitacre moves to not endorse Jennifer Fitzgerald for Fullerton City Council, with Allan Bartlett seconding.  He speaks of Barry Levinson’s efforts on behalf of Fullerton.  He says Levinson is no longer seeking the party endorsement to prevent divisiveness in the OC GOP.  Whitacre provides an email showing Fitzgerald asking Tony Bedolla on behalf of her client (Troy Edgar) to bundle $99 contributions from union members.

9:03 PM: County Supervisor Shawn Nelson speaks of being the only person in the room to face $1.2 million in hostile union IEs.  He speaks of the 2002 successful effort to drive Democrat Jan Flory off the Fullerton City Council, but Flory is running again.  Nelson speaks of her history working for Republicans.  Nelson says he previously supported Levinson, but Levinson has made two unsuccessful bids for Fullerton Council.  He notes a conservative woman has not been elected to the Fullerton City Council since 1986.

9:06 PM: Baugh notes that in the OC GOP union-free pledge, the party welcomes contributions of individual union members but not of the union itself.

9:07 PM: Fullerton Mayor Pro Tem Bruce Whitaker notes that his city has had two recalls in two decades.  He says there is an opportunity for Fullerton right now.  He says he has a bias in favor of activism.  He says Republicans should have bold colors not pale pastels.  Whitaker expresses his concern about her relative lack of public statements on issues other than outsourcing the Fullerton Police Department to the Orange County Sheriff’s Department.  Whitaker urges OC GOP neutrality between Fitzgerald and Levinson.

9:09 PM: My Central Committee member arrives, so my alternate voting power is gone.  I now only wear one hat as your intrepid blogger.

9:10 PM: Mary Young speaks of knowing Fitzgerald for 19 years.  She says if someone is an activist for 17 years but is gone for 2 years, that 2 years of inactivity does not outweigh the 17 years of activism.

9:11 PM: By voice vote, the committee did something.  No one is sure what happened.

9:12 PM: There is now a standing vote.

9:15 PM: The count is 31 people voting in favor of the party being neutral between Fitzgerald and Levinson, and 23 people voting in favor of endorsing Fitzgerald.

There is no endorsement for Fullerton City Council, other than incumbents Bruce Whitaker and Travis Kiger, who were endorsed in August.

Anaheim City Council – Brian Neil Chuchua

9:16 PM: Tim Whitacre moves to endorse Brian Chuchua, with Baron Night seconding.  Whitacre notes Lodge opted to withdraw his own endorsement request.  Whitacre warns of the union’s big push in Anaheim.  He says that Mayor Tom Tait needs all the help he can get.  He says Tait lobbied the party to not endorse Lodge.  Whitacre praises Chuchua as a good conservative who can help Mayor Tait.

9:18 PM: Baugh asks Whitacre if Tait has endorsed Chuchua.

9:18 PM: Whitacre says, “Tait has not yet endorsed Mr. Chuchua at this time.”

9:18 PM: Jon Fleischman says he is uncomfortable voting to endorse Chuchua if Mayor Tait has not endorsed him.  He wants to hear from Mayor Tait.

9:19 PM: Pauly asks for the Endorsements Committee to clarify its rationale against Chuchua.

9:20 PM: Mary Young notes that Chuchua gave money to a Democrat.

9:20 PM: Ray Grangoff express his concern about the lack of the endorsement from Tait.

9:20 PM: Supervisor Shawn Nelson asks who the Democrat was.

9:21 PM: Chuchua says the Democrat was Anaheim City School District Candidate John Santoianni, “a personal friend.”

9:21 PM: Lucille Kring notes that Mayor Tait has only endorsed John Leos so far.  She notes Tait has not endorsed a second candidate.

9:22 PM: Thomas Gordon notes Kring told she’d prefer Chuchua as her Council colleague.

9:22 PM: Tim Whitacre says he has been reimbursed by Chuchua for various expenses related to Chuchua’s campaign.

9:23 PM: There is a standing vote.  There are 29 votes in favor of endorsing Chuchua, and there are 11 votes against endorsing Chuchua.  Chuchua joins Lucille Kring as the OCGOP-endorsed candidates for Anaheim City Council.

Jesse Petrilla Returns

9:26 PM: Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Jesse Petrilla is given a standing ovation after returning within the last week from his service with the Army National Guard in Afghanistan.

Mission Viejo City Council

9:28 PM: Baugh reads the minutes from the Endorsements Committee, though several Central Committee members ask me if Baugh is reading this post since the minutes sounds a lot like OC Political.

9:31 PM: Ray Grangoff speaks of Bucknum’s strong conservative record and property rights record.

9:33 PM: Larry Gilbert brings up various documents and exhibits showing Frank Ury backing Democrat Dave Leckness and Wendy Bucknum with a union-paid sign in her yard, with her support for Leckness and Trish Kelley, neither of whom were endorsed by the OC GOP.  (Scott Voigts says, “Wow” throughout Gilbert’s remarks.)  Gilbert shows a campaign finance report showing Ury linked to Democrats.

9:36 PM: Baugh has to ask Gilbert to leave the stage after Parliamentarian Kermit Marsh repeatedly stated that Gilbert’s time was up.

9:37 PM: Young argues Leckness has a conservative voting record and that activist Shirley Morgan had tried repeatedly to make Leckness re-register as a Republican.  Young asks what in Leckness’s voting record is not conservative.

9:38 PM: Bill Dunlap says the party should not pick between winners and losers because there are two spots and four Republicans seeking the seat.

9:39 PM: In response to an audience question, Baugh notes there are four Republicans among the six candidates.

9:39 PM: Peotter moves for no endorsement in Mission Viejo, and there is a near-unanimous voice vote for the OC GOP to be neutral in Mission Viejo.

Fountain Valley City Council – Steve Nagel

9:40 PM: Nagel endorsed with all but one vote.

Garden Grove City Council – Steve Jones

9:40 PM: Steve Sarkis moves and Denis Bilodeau seconds to endorse Steve Jones for re-election to Garden Grove City Council.

9:41 PM: Tim Whitacre moves to not endorse Jones because Jones has endorsed Democrat Tom Daly for State Assembly.

9:41 PM: Jones denies endorsing Daly.

9:42 PM: Baugh asks if he’s endorsed Republican Assembly Candidate Jose Moreno.

9:42 PM: Jones endorses Moreno on the spot.

9:42 PM: By voice vote, Jones is endorsed unanimously.

Newport Beach City Measure EE

9:44 PM: A representative speaks of a charter commission that amended various charter provisions seeking to update 58 year old language, streamline government, and reduce costs by eliminating class-action lawsuits.

9:47 PM: Scott Peotter blasts the measure’s compensation provisions that legalizes generous salaries and benefits for Councilmembers. He notes the Register opposes EE.

9:49 PM: Miraculously, Deborah Pauly and Jon Flesichman unite to make and second a motion to send Measure EE to the Endorsements Committee in October. The Central Committee applauses stunned that Pauly and Flesichman are united. They vote unanimously to support the Pauly-Fleischman motion.

Tustin City Measure HH

9:50 PM: Doug Davert says Measure HH eliminates Tustin City Council compensation.

9:50 PM: The vote to endorse Measure HH passes unanimously.

Central Committee Business

9:51 PM: Mary Young updates efforts on voter registration, including from Assemblywoman Diane Harkey.

9:53 PM: Norm Dickinson speaks of various bylaw cleanup amendments including conforming ex officio membership requirements to Prop 14.

9:56 PM: The bylaw amendments pass unanimously by voice vote.

9:57 PM: Zonya Townsend presents the Volunteer of the Month Award to Shalon Norman. Various other people make presentations to Norman.

10:03 PM: Parliamentarian Kermit Marsh is pleased to report there have been no ethics complaints so far in 2012. Marsh disputes the election polls, and notes the 21-14 football victory of #21 Stanford over #2 USC.

10:05 PM: There’s a report from Diane Glinchey regarding the Romney campaign efforts in OC and in several swing states.

10:07 PM: Ronea Hart speaks of the Team Santa Ana precinct walk at the Santa Ana GOP GOTV HQ and the Santa Ana TEA Party meeting.

10:08 PM: One speaker notes today is the 225th anniversary of the Constitution.

10:09 PM: Steve Sarkis reports on his discoveries of enormous signs for “No on 32” being delivered to a union hall.

10:09 PM: Mike Munzing plugs his fundraiser for Aliso Viejo Council.

10:10 PM: Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Tony Beall spoke of the GOTV HQ in his area.

10:11 PM: Kermit Marsh wins the raffle after pulling out a huge wad of tickets. He says the key to winning is buying the most tickets. Marsh’s victory is verified, and the meeting adjourns.

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 32 Comments »

OC GOP Central Committee Meets to Make Official Endorsements

Posted by Chris Nguyen on September 17, 2012

The OCGOP Endorsements Committee met on September 4-5 to make recommendations for endorsement.  (You can get the recaps here and here.  The consent calendar was here.)  Today is the real fun as the Central Committee meets to accept or reject the recommendations of the Endorsements Committee.  Once the Central Committee acts, a candidate is officially endorsed (or not endorsed) by the Republican Party of Orange County.

The meeting begins at 7 PM at the Costa Mesa Westin Hotel, 686 Anton Blvd., Costa Mesa, CA 92626.

This should be interesting juggling for OC Political tonight, as Emami fled the country, I’m being sworn in as a Central Committee alternate, and several of our bloggers are full-fledged Central Committee members.

Here’s the list of candidates/ballot measures being considered for endorsements…

For ease of reading, I’ve added the following notations to the candidates’ names:
*Recommended for postponement
**Recommended for dual endorsement
^ Opponent was recommended for endorsement
~ No recommendation
Strikeout Withdrew request for endorsement
Candidates without notations were recommended for endorsement.

Summary of OCGOP Endorsement Committee Recommendations – September Meetings

Tuesday, September 4th, 2012
1. Greg Ficke for Aliso Viejo City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
2. Jeanne Galindo for Fountain Valley School District Board – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
3. Steven Dicterow for Laguna Beach City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
4. Dean Grose for Los Alamitos City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
5. Larry R. Crandall for Municipal Water District of Orange County – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
6. Debbie Cotton for Ocean View School District Board – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
7. Karina Onofre for Santa Ana City Council, Ward 5 – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
8. Chuck Puckett for Tustin City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
9. John Nielsen for Tustin City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
10. Allan Bernstein for Tustin City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
11. Bill Perkins for Capistrano Unified School District Trustee Area 5 – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
*12. Sam Allevato for San Juan City Council – RECOMMEND POSTPONING TO OCTOBER MEETING
*13. Virginia “Ginny” Kerr for San Juan City Council – RECOMMEND POSTPONING TO OCTOBER MEETING
14. Bill Hunt for Laguna Hills City Council – REMOVED REQUEST FOR ENDORSEMENT
15. Dore J. Gilbert for Laguna Hills City Council – REMOVED REQUEST FOR ENDORSEMENT
16. Dr. Raghu Mathur for Laguna Hills City Council – REMOVED REQUEST FOR ENDORSEMENT
17. Andrew Blount for Laguna Hills City Council – REMOVED REQUEST FOR ENDORSEMENT
18. Alexia Deligianhi for Orange Unified School District Board – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
19. Michelle Ollada Alipio for Irvine Unified School District Board – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
20. Doug Davert for East Orange County Water District – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
21. Carlos Olvera for Dana Point City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
22. George Collins for Mayor of Santa Ana – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
**23. Charles Hart for Santa Ana City Council Ward 3 – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE BOTH CHARLES AND BRETT
**24. Brett Franklin for Santa Ana City Council Ward 3 – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE BOTH CHARLES AND BRETT
25. Lynn Schott for Irvine City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
26. Alexandria Coronado for Cypress School Board – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
27. Michael Mortenson for San Clemente City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
*28. Jim Dahl for San Clemente City Council – RECOMMEND POSTPONING TO OCTOBER MEETING

Wednesday, September 5th, 2012

29. Steven Lang for Capistrano Unified School District – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
30. Jim Reardon for Capistrano Unified School District – RECEOMMEND TO ENDORSE
31. Erik Peterson for Huntington Beach City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
32. Yes on Measure FF (Orange) – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
33. Steven Vargas for Brea City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
34. Susan Hinman for Municipal Water District of Orange County – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
35. Dwight Robinson for Lake Forest City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
36. Adam Nick for Lake Forest City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
37. Jennifer Fitzgerald for Fullerton City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
^38. Barry Levinson for Fullerton City Council
~39. Brian Neil Chuchua for Anaheim City Council – NO RECOMMENDATION
40. Steve Chavez Lodge for Anaheim City Council – REMOVED REQUEST FOR ENDORSEMENT
41. Jim Fisler for Mesa Consolidated Water District, Div. 2 – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
42. Laurie Davies for Laguna Niguel City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
^43. Ed Sachs for Mission Viejo City Council
44. Wendy Bucknum for Mission Viejo City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
^45. Cathy Schlicht for Mission Viejo City Council
46. Frank Ury for Mission Viejo City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
47. Roger Yoh for Orange County Water District Director, Div. 3 -– RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
48. Baron Night for Buena Park City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
49. Cecilia Iglesias for Santa Ana School Board – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
50. Carol Gamble for Rancho Santa Margarita City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE
51. Brad McGirr for Rancho Santa Margarita City Council – RECOMMEND TO ENDORSE

Additional Endorsements that will be considered:

A.) Steve Nagel for Fountain Valley City Council
B.) Steve Jones for Garden Grove City Council
C.) Yes on Measure EE (Newport Beach)
D.) Yes on Measure HH (Tustin)

 

Posted in Republican Central Committee | 1 Comment »

2012 General Election Predictions: 65th Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 17, 2012

Now we get to what many people think will be the most competitive race in Orange County. I am afraid that I have bad news on this one for Democrats. This district is a Fullerton fight between longtime Fullertonian Chris Norby and Fullerton Mayor Sharon Quirk-Silva.

The district though spans even larger than Fullerton having Buena Park, Cypress, Stanton, & La Palma also within its boundaries:

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

In the interest of full disclosure my business partner and one of my co-editors on the blog Chris Nguyen has a full-time job working for the district staff of Chris Norby. I also want to point out that I did not talk to Chris Nguyen prior to writing this and he did not have any influence on this analysis.

One might argue that the voter registration is extremely close with Republicans at 38.0%, Democrats at 36.6%, and DTS at 21.0%. Although Republicans have just a 1.4% registration advantage DTS voters lean-to the right in this Orange County only district.

Looking at all 2010 races in this area the only race that Democrats won was the race for State Treasurer where the Democrats won by an amazing 0.14%. The other factor looking at things from an elections standpoint is the glorified poll that took place in June:

Member of the State Assembly; District 65

  • Chris Norby, Republican ………. 29,917 votes 58.8%
  • Sharon Quirk-Silva, Democratic ………. 20,936 votes 41.2%

My thoughts before the primary were that Quirk-Silva needed to finish with at least 45% of the vote to be competitive in June. These primary results surprised even me as I thought Norby would get around 56% of the vote. As you can see from the results Norby is positioned well based on the voters position in June.

Financially Norby also has an advantage having $136,636.01 in his account as of June 30th and Quirk-Silva having a bit less with $106,070.16 in her account as of the same time period. These are two very comparable numbers, but the fact of the matter is that a challenger (especially one with a poor June showing) needs to outspend their opponent.

With these factors already in place I will now point out a huge wild card in this race. They both have bi-partisan support amongst elected officials in this race. Stanton Mayor Carol Warren has crossed party lines to endorse Norby. Quirk-Silva has the support of Republican Brea Councilman Ron Garcia (Brea is not in the 65th). As for elected Councilmembers in the 65th Assembly district Norby has the advantage of 21 endorsements while Quirk-Silva lags behind at 5.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Chris Norby

Posted in 65th Assembly District | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

2012 General Election Predictions: 55th Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 17, 2012

If you are reading this I want to note that I am currently out of the country on vacation to Spain for 2 weeks and have scheduled my prediction posts to go off for this week. So, don’t be offended if I don’t reply to comments you leave behind.

The 55th Assembly District is another hybrid Orange County, Los Angeles County, and San Bernardino County seat represented by my former Assembly Representative Curt Hagman:

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

As you can see Orange County clearly has a majority of this seat. However, both candidates running for this seat are from outside of Orange C0unty. Hagman is from San Bernardino County while Fritchle is from Los Angeles County.

The results from June tell the true story though of what to expect. We had a race where Fritchle did not even finish ahead of his party registration:

Member of the State Assembly; District 55

  • Curt Hagman, Republican ………. 40,268 votes 69.1%
  • Gregg D. Fritchle, Democratic ………. 17,994 votes 30.9%

In case you were wondering Republicans have 41.7% registration, Democrats have 31.6% registration, and DTS have 22.8% registration.

Even if Hagman did no campaigning whatsoever he would still win the race based on this massive victory that he had in June. The campaign finance reports from the Secretary of State office tell us that the money is also one-sided as Hagman had just over $225,000 after the primary and Fritchle did not even raise enough to trigger online filing.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Curt Hagman

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Frank Ury Omitted Several Of His Past Council Votes To Maintain Lifetime Medical Benefits For Council Members When He Appeared Before The Republican Party Endorsement Committee

Posted by Greg Woodard on September 16, 2012

I currently am the only member on the Central Committee from Mission Viejo.  We have four conservatives running for two spots.  Consequently, I’m recommending we vote no endorsement for any candidate, and let the Mission Viejo voters decide in November.

On September 5, 2012, incumbent Frank Ury, and three other conservative candidates for Mission Viejo City Council, went before the GOP Endorsement Committee.  When Ury spoke, he touted his conservative principles and his list of endorsements (see Chris Nguyen’s extensive coverage here: https://ocpolitical.com/2012/09/05/ocgop-endorsements-committee-meets/).  Endorsement Committee member Thomas Gordon asked Ury whether he had voted to bestow lifetime medical benefits on part-time council members.  To his credit, Ury was prepared for the question.  Ury stated that he had voted to rescind lifetime benefits for council members and he produced an affidavit he presented at the July 6, 2010 Council meeting that purported to irrevocably release any lifetime medical benefits he may be entitled to.

After hearing the candidates and their supporters and detractors, the Endorsement Committee voted 4-2 to recommend Ury for endorsement by the full Central Committee.  The Endorsement Committee also voted 4-2 to recommend endorsement for challenger Wendy Bucknum.  Having made two recommendations, the Committee effectively voted against endorsing the other conservative incumbent, Cathy Schlicht.

Ury’s response to Gordon was incomplete.  Ury gave the impression that he never had voted for lifetime medical benefits for part-time council members.  In doing so, Ury left out several key votes he made that allowed such benefits.  Here is a brief rundown of those votes:

In 2000, a prior City Council voted to provide lifetime medical benefits for city employees and their spouses who had 12 years of continuous service with the city (we can debate the wisdom of that boondoggle at a different time).  Subsequently, the issue was raised as to whether or not this policy would apply to council members.  On May 19, 2008, six months before he was up for re-election to the Council, Ury proposed a resolution to eliminate lifetime medical benefits for council members.  The measure passed 5-0.

On November 17, 2008, the first Council meeting after Ury was re-elected to a second 4 year term, Ury made a motion to adopt a resolution that would re-instate lifetime medical benefits for council members and give them the option of declining the benefits.  The measure passed 3-1 with Ury voting to re-instate lifetime medical benefits.

On June 21, 2010, Councilmember Cathy Schlicht proposed eliminating lifetime medical benefits for current and future council members.  The proposal failed 2-3 with Ury voting against it, keeping lifetime medical benefits in place.

On July 6, 2010, Schlicht again proposed eliminating lifetime medical benefits.  This time, the measure passed 4-1, with only Ury voting against.  Ury had earlier attempted to get a vote to lay the item on the table (for those parliamentary procedure fans like Kermit Marsh, that means Ury tried to avoid voting on Schlicht’s motion), but it failed.

It was at that same July 6, 2010 meeting that Ury presented his affidavit, including a memo that stated, “When I first brought this up over two years ago, and even as recently as a few months ago, the Council taking action to revoke this benefit was criticized under the argument that the Council could change its action in the future.  Therefore, executing this irrevocable release is the best and proper way to ensure that any claims to this benefit are severed. I have executed the documents and have therefore revoked this benefit. This has been delivered to the City Attorney and is on file with the City.”

I would note that Councilmember Trish Kelley also submitted an affidavit purporting to irrevocably release any lifetime medical benefits she may be entitled to at the July 6, 2010 Council meeting.  However, she also voted in favor of Schlicht’s motion to eliminate lifetime medical benefits, while Ury opposed it.

The Endorsement Committee’s recommendations for Ury and Bucknum should be heard by the full Central Committee at its meeting tomorrow night.  No candidate, however conservative, is perfect, and while Republicans often agree on a majority of issues, there will always be disagreement between us.  I have supported Ury’s positions on several occasions (particularly in opposing the anti-property rights Measure D that was defeated in 2010.)  However, for me personally, public pension and benefits are out of control, and I cannot agree with any vote to give lifetime benefits for part-time council members, regardless of the reason.  Ury voted to re-instate lifetime benefits for council members, and twice voted against removing those benefits.  Accordingly, I urge the full Central Committee to take a neutral stance at tomorrow night’s meeting and not endorse any candidate for Mission Viejo City Council.

Posted in Mission Viejo | Tagged: , , , , , | 6 Comments »

#21 Stanford defeats #2 USC 21-14

Posted by Chris Nguyen on September 15, 2012

This is not a political post, but Emami urged me to do it anyway.

Stanford is now 5-1 against USC over the last six years in football, including going 4-0 against Mater Dei alum Matt Barkley.

That is all.

Posted in California | 2 Comments »

Allow me to introduce myself

Posted by Greg Woodard on September 15, 2012

I wanted to thank the Chrises (or is it Chrisses – no that sounds too weird), for allowing me to offer my two cents on Orange County politics from time to time on here.  My name is Greg Woodard and I am a conservative Republican.  When my brother was in the Marines, he used to say his loyalties went God, Corps (not corpse, Mr. President), and Country.  For me, it’s God, Family, and Country.  I believe that Jesus Christ is my Savior, I love my wife and kids, and I bleed red, white, and blue.  I have had the pleasure of serving on the Orange County Republican Central Committee as an appointed member since 2010, and I recently won my first election to the Committee through 2014.  In my time in Orange County politics, I have come to know and respect many conservatives who are striving to make a difference, not only in this county, but also in this state and in our great nation, and I hope I offer that same passion to my party.  I look forward to spirited discussions with conservatives, liberals, libertarians, or anyone else about all things politics, and I promise to try to maintain civility in my posts and my comments.

A little bit about myself (and a shameless plug for what I do to pay the bills).  I have been married to my beautiful wife for over 12 years now.  We have two boys, 6 and 8, and a 2 year old foster daughter, and we have lived in Mission Viejo for 12 years.  I love all things sports, both watching and playing.  I am an attorney by trade, focusing on employment, business, and real estate/land use litigation.  For nearly my entire career, I have worked at some of the largest firms in the country – until last Monday when I started my own firm with a good friend of mine.  You can check it out at www.larsenwoodard.com if you care (I told you I was making a plug).

Posted in Mission Viejo | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »