OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Posts Tagged ‘Todd Spitzer’

Republican Candidates Out Walking Tomorrow!

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 20, 2012

In a huge sign of campaign momentum Todd Spitzer candidate for 3rd District Supervisor and Robert Hammond candidate for County Board of Education are participating in what is set to be a big precinct walk in Tustin tomorrow. (Full disclosure: Custom Campaigns is the consultant running the Hammond race and Todd Spitzer is an advertiser on this blog).

Volunteers will meet at 9:00 AM at the Starbucks located at 552 East First Street in Tustin, CA 92780. This is in the Vons shopping center near the corner of 1st and Newport.

It is always a major sign of momentum to get a large group of people out walking to support candidates running for offices, especially non-partisan ones. With tomorrow scheduled to be  beautiful day according to weather reports this should be a great event.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Third Supervisorial District: Todd Spitzer in the Mail

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 20, 2012

Excluding the Anaheim TOT mail (which has nothing to do with the June election), I received my second mailer of the primary election cycle yesterday.  The first mailer was from Congressman Ed Royce on April 4.  This one is from Todd Spitzer’s campaign for the Third Supervisorial District.

The exterior portion of the piece emphasizes Spitzer’s endorsements from various elected officials, particularly that of incumbent Third District Supervisor Bill Campbell.  The interior portion emphasizes his previous job experience and has a “Growing Orange County’s Economy” section and a “Standing Up for Taxpayers” section.

The piece is 8.5″ x 11″ and becomes 8.5″ x 22″ when opened up.  (Sorry about the split down the middle of the interior.  My scanner was having trouble due to the large size of the Spitzer mailer.)

2012-04-19 Todd Spitzer Mailer

Click on the picture to view a larger version.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, Mail | Tagged: , , | 3 Comments »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 3rd Supervisorial District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 18, 2012

This race is a bit close to home since I am going to be represented by the winner of this race. Having seen this race up close and personal I hope that I can pull myself out of the echo chamber enough to make a fair analysis here.

I can promise that I will be a lot less biased than HBK and The Rock of OC who have quite frankly abused their blogging privileges a bit.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat is going to potentially get ugly in the media with both candidates appearing to have a bit of disdain for each other.

Both candidates are Republicans in what is considered a very conservative seat. Party affiliation does not matter all that much in this race as no affiliation is listed on the ballot (not that it matters in this race).

The good news is that this race will be over in June, because the Prop 14 rules do not apply to this County race and with only 2 candidates on the ballot one of them is guaranteed to get over 50% of the vote.

Candidates include:

Todd Spitzer the former Supervisor and Assemblyman from Orange. He is extremely popular in Orange especially because of his strong stance on public safety issues. His humongous war chest will make it easy for him to message to voters. On the flip side he made a huge mistake voting for 3% @ 50 which is an outrageous pension liability that has plagued our state.

Deborah Pauly the current Villa Park City Councilwoman who is extremely popular in TEA Party circles. She has not had the same fundraising luck as Todd, but she appears to have a decent number of volunteers working with her. On the flip side for her she made some very disappointing comments at a rally in Yorba Linda that have quite frankly done damage to the Republican Party.

The factors at play- This one is going to unfortunately be very slanted due to fundraising, name ID, campaign experience, and support all lining up behind Todd. Had Mark Bucher jumped into this race it could have been a really big fight (Also a huge waste in Republican resources).

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that winner will be:

Todd Spitzer

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Spitzer Campaign Open House

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 14, 2012

This came over the wire from the Spitzer campaign…

Spitzer Fundraiser Hosted by Scott Baugh

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

David Overtaking Goliath: Pauly Raises More Than Double the Money Spitzer Raised in 2012

Posted by The Rock of OC on April 11, 2012

You read that headline right: Deborah Pauly raised more money than the vaunted Todd Spitzer money machine in 2012.  Not just more, but more than double.

According to the latest campaign finance reports, Spitzer raised $3,100 while Pauly raised $7,578.  That’s right: David raised more than double what Goliath did.

This is a clear sign that the momentum is shifting toward Deborah Pauly.  True conservatives are holding their money back from special-interest Spitzer.  Pauly’s gain in momentum is clearly causing union-supporter Spitzer’s money to dry up.

The donors are beginning to realize that the people don’t want bought and paid career politicians who do the bidding of their masters.   They are tired of Orange County being pillaged by the special interests that suck at the public teat.

The people’s eyes are open, and the donors realize it.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, Fundraising | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

Deborah Pauly + Campaign Finance = Uh-Oh!!!!!

Posted by HBK on April 9, 2012

Hiring a campaign treasurer is not a bad idea for a political campaign to do. Some people look to hire Lisa Ray, Kelly Lawler, or somebody else that is not Kindee Durkee. If a candidate decides not to hire a treasurer the forms are fairly easy to figure out. However, in some situations you see certain campaigns finance reports that are a train wreck.


Deborah Pauly had some issues with her campaign finance report and also some other interesting factoids that I will point out.

1) The report was due on March 22nd yet she signed her form on March 29th. Tis shows that she was a week late in even putting her form together and based on the report and the lack of activity it is confusing as to what could have possibly taken her so long.

2) The form was turned in over a week late on March 30th. This will likely draw a fine from the FPPC as this is likely to have been forwarded to the appropriate desk at the FPPC from the Spitzer team. Again, why does a form with so few contributions require so much time to put together.

3) She has less than $2400 cash on hand. This should be pretty self-explanatory to readers.

4) $450 contribution received from Marilyn Davenport … yes, the same Marilyn Davenport who sent out the racist Obama email.

5) One person involved with CRA who has seen this has commented that it is possible that she purposely turned in her form late so that she wouldn’t have to explain her lack of support during the CRA endorsement meeting.

Todd is clearly going to win this race, the question really comes down to what the margin of victory is on election day.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , | 4 Comments »

OC’s Best Ballot Designations

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 5, 2012

Ballot

Ballot designations are the only piece of information that appear directly on the ballot other than a candidate's name (and party in some - but not all - races).

Last week, I wrote about OC’s worst ballot designations. In this post, I’ll be looking at OC’s best ballot designations.

As I said last week, “The most important thing a candidate does in a campaign may well be selecting a ballot designation.  That little phrase underneath a candidate’s name are the last piece of information that voters see before casting their ballots.  In low-profile races (like Central Committee, where you can’t even get a candidate’s statement in the sample ballot), that little phrase may well be the only piece of information that voters see before casting their ballots.”

Elected officials’ ballot designations are an inherent advantage, so I’m excluding the designations of elected officials.

OC’s Ten Best Ballot Designations (for Non-Incumbents/Non-Elected Officials)

  1. Retired Navy Captain (Emily Sanford in the 74th District Republican Central Committee)
    Retired Naval Officer (Norm Dickinson in the 73rd District Republican Central Committee)
    Who could possibly vote against the military?  People have a deep respect for career military officers, as these people have served their country, have substantial leadership experience, understand complex government bodies, and are educated.
  2. Deputy Attorney General (Peggy Huang in the 55th District Republican Central Committee)
    Voters love prosecutors.  Prosecutors put criminals in prison.  Deputy District Attorneys rarely lose elections.  Deputy Attorney General is higher on the food chain, so it should be even more impressive to voters.
  3. Deputy District Attorney (Cyril Yu in the 74th District Democratic Central Committee)
    See above.
  4. Retired Police Commander (Albert Ayala in AD-72)
    Voters love law enforcement because the police catch criminals.  A retired police commander has served his community, has leadership experience, and understands dealing with government.
  5. Law Enforcement Officer (Jorge Robles in CD-38)
    As above, voters love law enforcement because they catch criminals and have served the community.
  6. Businessman/Victims Advocate (Todd Spitzer in the 3rd Supervisorial District)
    How on earth do you vote against a victims advocate?  That’d be like voting against victims.
  7. Businesswoman/Childrens Advocate (Brenda McCune in the 55th District Republican Central Committee)
    How on earth do you vote against a childrens advocate?  That’d be like voting against the children.  (Of course, we’d expect all OC Political bloggers to have great ballot designations when running for office, and she’s done just that.)
  8. Retired Constitutional Litigator (Jonathan Adler in the 74th District Democratic Central Committee)
    Voters hate most lawyers as ambulance chasers and corporate raiders.  However, there are two types of lawyers people like: the prosecutors who put criminals away and the constitutional lawyers who battle for constitutional causes and rights (note that Spitzer and McCune went with “Advocate” instead of “Lawyer” – it’s the same job but “Advocate” sounds friendlier than “Lawyer”).
  9. Emergency Physician (Bill Honigman in the 73rd District Democratic Central Committee)
    Doctors improve health.  Emergency room doctors save lives.  People vote for lifesavers.
  10. Charitable Organization President (Usha Shah in CD-47)
    Too many people who work for non-profit organizations run with “Non-Profit Organization” or “Non-Profit Group” in their ballot designation.  “Charitable Organization” brings happy thoughts that make voters feel warm and fuzzy.  “Charitable” just sounds better than “Non-Profit” even though 90% of the time they’re the same thing.

Interestingly, half of the above are lawyers.  Note that none of these lawyers used “lawyer” in their designation.  None used “Attorney” except when it had key modifiers to become “Deputy Attorney General” or “Deputy District Attorney” instead.  These candidates realize voters don’t like lawyers, but they’re smart enough to realize people like prosecutors and advocates.

Lessons from the group above:

  • Non-prosecutor lawyers should generally run as advocates.
  • People like the military, law enforcement, and doctors.
  • When possible, “Charitable” should be used instead of “Non-Profit” to attract voters.

Best Pair of Ballot Designations in a Two-Person Race: 3rd Supervisorial District

  • Businessman/Victims Advocate (Todd Spitzer)
  • Councilwoman, City of Villa Park (Deborah Pauly)

Spitzer’s designation was #6 on my list of the ten best ballot designations in OC.  Pauly’s designation was ineligible to be on the list due to my “elected officials’ ballot designations are an inherent advantage” rule.  Therefore, this race inherently has the best pair of ballot designations in any two-person race.

Best Set of Ballot Designations in One Race Featuring 3+ Candidates: AD-72

  • Small Business Owner (Travis Allen – Republican)
  • Retired Police Commander (Albert Ayala – Democrat)
  • City Commissioner/Businessman (Joe Dovinh – Democrat)
  • Member, Orange County Board of Education (Long Pham – Republican)
  • Businessman/Mayor (Troy Edgar – Republican)

I noted last week that the five candidates in CD-46 has the worst set of ballot designations in any one race.  Well, another set of five candidates, this time in AD-72, has the best set of ballot designations in any one race with three or more candidates.

Every single one of these candidates maximized their occupations and political positions in their descriptions of themselves.

  • Allen runs a wealth management firm.  “Wealth Management Businessowner” could be offputting to some voters.  He wisely (and accurately) chose to describe himself as a “Small Business Owner” because his wealth management firm is a small business, and he does own it.  Plus people on both sides of the aisle respect people who own small businesses; indeed, the majority of Americans work for small businesses.
  • Ayala’s “Retired Police Commander” came in at #4 on my list of best ballot designations.  When the most hopeless candidate makes the best ballot designations list, you know you’ve got a fun race.
  • Dovinh’s “City Commissioner/Businessman” maximizes his appointed political role and takes advantage of his job as a general contractor.  The “City Commissioner” part wisely leaves off a specific city making it possible he could be a city commissioner in any of the cities in AD-72: Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, Seal Beach, Westminster, Garden Grove, Los Alamitos, or Santa Ana.  (He’s a Garden Grove Planning Commissioner for the record.)  Additionally, there are cities out there (though not in California) that call their city elected officials commissioners instead of councilmembers.  For voters looking for candidates with private sector experience, Dovinh’s “Businessman” designation appeals to them.
  • Pham’s “Member, Orange County Board of Education” takes advantage of my “elected officials’ ballot designations are an inherent advantage” rule.  Not only that, he takes advantage of the Elections Code regulation that allows sitting elected officials to exceed three words in a ballot designation if they use their elected title as their sole ballot designation (this counts as a five-word designation; remember, “Orange County” is legally one word for purposes of the Elections Code).  Further, Pham is one of a small group of elected officials whose elected position includes “Orange County” in the title.  Since the entirety of AD-72 is in Orange County, his title sounds like he could represent all the people of AD-72 (for the record, he represents Fountain Valley, Garden Grove, Santa Ana, and Tustin).
  • Edgar’s “Businessman/Mayor” takes advantage of his status owning two businesses and the fact that he is currently Mayor of Los Alamitos.  Edgar is the only candidate in AD-72 who didn’t maximize the word limit, and he also failed to use the stronger “Businessowner” over “Businessman” in his designation: I would have tweaked this to be “Orange County Businessowner/Mayor” or “Small Businessowner/Mayor” though this is still a strong ballot designation.  Everything I said about Dovinh’s ballot designation applies to Edgar, with the added advantage that the mayor is leader of a city while a commissioner is just one of several officials.  Edgar’s not a directly-elected mayor; he’s mayor in one of those cities (specifically, Los Alamitos) where mayor is rotated on an annual basis among the councilmembers.  However, for ballot designation purposes, it doesn’t matter if you’re directly-elected or rotated into the position, as long as you’re the mayor when you’re running.

So last week, I wrote about OC’s worst ballot designations. In this post, these are Orange County’s best ballot designations.

Posted in 38th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 47th Congressional District, 72nd Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Steve Rocco To Benefit From Independent Expenditures

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 1, 2012

In a shocking turn of events, candidate for Orange County Supervisor Steve Rocco is expected to benefit from numerous independent expenditures. The independent expenditures are expected to come from the Heinz Ketchup Company. Candidates in the 3rd District race Todd Spitzer and Deborah Pauly are both disappointed that Heinz will not be picking a side in this race.

Todd Spitzer, Deborah Pauly, Janet Nguyen, and Steve Rocco

The main reason for Rocco getting the support is his willingness to spell the product name as ketchup and not catsup.

However, concerned about Rocco being controlled by the special interest group, Kraft foods has apparently dumped money into an I.E. account to help support Janet Nguyen.

Disclaimer: This is an April Fools Day post.

Posted in Orange County Board of Supervisors | Tagged: , , , | 2 Comments »

Good Ole Boys Pervert Conservativism

Posted by The Rock of OC on March 27, 2012

In a shocking defeat for real conservatives, the good ole boys seized the endorsement of the CRA for their big-government retread, Todd Spitzer.

Hope for conservatives got a bit bleaker as the special interests gained control of the group that is supposed to be the conscience of the Republican Party.  In the Board of Supervisors race, Deborah Pauly is the only proven limited government, fiscal conservative who will represent the people, but in a perversion of Republican ideals, the CRA endorsed career politician Spitzer, who is in bed with the unions.

In this David and Goliath battle, Pauly is the true conservative and special-interest Spitzer is the candidate of the unions.  He is a RINO and backed costly pension deals when he was previously a Supervisor.  He will not cut the size of local government or reform pensions because he’s one of the guys who caused Orange County’s three-billion-dollar unfunded pension liabilities!

Special-interest Spitzer is slick and polished.  He’s a very connected career politician who’s part of the good ole boys who run Orange County.

The time is ripe to save Orange Coutny from the career politicians who are bought and paid for to do the bidding of their masters who cram their campaign bank accounts with tens of thousands of special interest dollars.

The CRA missed its chance, but the people know the truth.  They will not allow Orange County to be raped by the special interests gorging at the public trough.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , | 7 Comments »

CRA Rejects Pauly’s Threats, Endorses Spitzer in Upset

Posted by HBK on March 27, 2012

In a victory for civility over coercion and conservativism over fringe elements, the California Republican Assembly endorsed Todd Spitzer over Deborah Pauly in an amazing upset.

Pauly could not conduct herself with dignity at the CRA endorsing meeting. Her campaign strategy is simple: attack Spitzer and hope that no one sees she does not have the experience or temperament to be an Orange County Supervisor.  On the other hand, Spitzer has the qualities necessary to work with others as a team, work with others to solve problems, and work with others for Orange County.   Spitzer clearly demonstrated this attitude and perspective during the CRA endorsing meeting: Pauly is a divider; Spitzer brings people together with dignity and respect to carry Orange County forward.

Pauly spoke about her role in forming the Orange-Villa Park CRA unit while Spitzer is the only candidate who is currently a member of his local CRA unit: Orange-Villa Park.  Why isn’t Pauly still in the Orange-Villa Park CRA unit?

As a long-time CRA activist, shouldn’t the endorsement have been a shoo-in for Pauly?  It’s clear the people who know her best know she does not have the qualities to be an Orange County Supervisor, which is why the CRA backed Spitzer in an upset for the endorsement.

The more Pauly spoke, the more support she lost.  In the first round, Spitzer led Pauly 14-6-2.  In the second round, Pauly lost half her supporters and one of the neutral voters went to Spitzer, giving him the endorsement 18-3-1.

Why is that?  It’s simple: the CRA allowed each candidate to speak for a minute before the second round of voting, and in her speech, Pauly decided to threaten the CRA.  When she’s trying to persuade an organization to support her, she resorts to threats.  This is the same way she conducts herself in meetings.  If she’s threatening people to get an endorsement, imagine what she’d do on the Board of Supervisors!

The CRA is the largest and most conservative grassroots organization in the state and represents the everyday values of conservative voters.  This proves that Spitzer is the conservative candidate, and Pauly is just a fringe candidate.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , | 6 Comments »