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Pat Maciariello Withdraws from 45th Congressional District Race

Posted by Scott Carpenter on December 30, 2013

In the midst of the last minute “beat the clock” emails from various elected officials and candidates appealing for donations before tomorrow’s deadline, Congressional Candidate Pat Marciariello just sent out an announcement that he was withdrawing from the race. I had heard some rumors that this was a possibility, but I must say I did not realize how soon it could actually happen. This now leaves Supervisor John Moorlach, Senator Mimi Walters and Greg Raths as the remaining contenders in the GOP field.

His statement is below:

Friends,

After significant reflection with my family over the Christmas season we have decided that we will no longer continue in our candidacy for congress.  I want to thank all of those who have supported us over the past four months,  your kindness will not be forgotten.  Monetary contributions made to my campaign will be refunded in the coming weeks.   

Regards and God Bless.

Pat

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CD-45 Watch: Moorlach Is In

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on December 2, 2013

Orange County Supervisor Jon Moorlach has been a rumored candidate for the 45th Congressional District since July. I received confirmation last night from a source that Moorlach appears to have made it official and a campaign event is set for next week on Monday December 9th at The Winery in Tustin from 5:30 PM-7:30 PM. MoorlachAt some point in the near future I will do an analysis on CD 45, but my early opinion is that regardless of fundraising John Moorlach is the front-runner for the seat in a field that currently includes Mimi Walters, Pat Maciarello, and Greg Raths. Here is the announcement (forgive the note on it, my source wrote directly on the page that they should send it to Chris N. and myself):

Moorlach_Fundraiser

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Poll Results in CD 45: Spitzer Is The Frontrunner

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on July 2, 2013

This morning Jon Fleischman posted the results of a poll conducted by Lewis Consulting Group, that showed the favorables/unfavorables of some potential candidates along with results of some hypothetical matches. The results were not what I expected to see, with what appears to be a wide open race amongst a few front-runners. I talked to John Lewis this morning after the poll was released and he had this to say, “The goal with this poll was to try and best replicate predicted 2014 turnout. This is clearly a wide open race and results will largely depend on who decides to run.”

200px-Spitzer_portrait_wiki
You can view the entire poll by clicking CD45-Crosstab-Tables-I.

Lets start by taking a look at the raw numbers for favorables vs unfavorables for each candidate in the running, in order to use a single number to represent favorability, I am taking the percentage that represents favorables and subtracting the percentage that represents unfavorables in order to create a net favorability ranking system. Here are the rankings based 0n this net favorability:

(R) Todd Spitzer +25% (OC Supervisor)
(R) Ed Royce +20% (Congressman)
(D) Sukhee Kang +13% (Former Irvine Mayor)
(R) Mimi Walter +13% (State Senator)
(D) Steve Young +12%  (Perennial Dem Candidate)
(R) Gary Miller +10% (Congressman)
(R) Don Wagner +10% (State Assemblyman)
(R) Scott Baugh +8% (Chairman of OCGOP)
(D) Beth Krom +4%
(D) Barack Obama -28% (This was simply his approval rating, I am fairly certain he has no intention of seeking this seat)

The fact that Todd Spitzer had the highest net favorability was not especially surprising to me because a lot of my non-political friends are aware of some of his public safety initiatives that he has worked on. I am most surprised by Steve Young having a 12% net favorability rating, although my instinct states that perhaps some football fans got confused on this one.

This data does not also take into account that some other potential candidates are looming out there, including but not limited to Steven Choi (Current Irvine Mayor), John Moorlach (OC Supervisor), and some of the wealthy private sector individuals that could self-fund a campaign. On the Dem side I hear rumblings of Irvine Councilmember Larry Agran jumping into this race and I would argue that he would be the Democrat most likely to advance to November.

My favorite part of the poll was the hypothetical match-ups that were polled including the following scenarios:

Mimi Walters vs. Gary Miller vs. Beth Krom

Walters 25.0%
Krom 21.3%
Miller 21.0%

This matchup is interesting because Walters is definitely in this race and I have heard from more than a couple of insiders that Gary Miller is strongly considering a move back to Orange County to run for this seat due to the fact that his current seat is one that could very easily go blue in 2016. A 4% gap is not very hard to overcome especially when you consider margin of error of any poll.

Mimi Walters vs. Ed Royce vs. Beth Krom

Royce 25.7%
Krom 22.3%
Walters 20.3%

I am not surprised that Royce is leading in this matchup due to the fact that he is a sitting Congressman who has higher name ID than Gary Miller in Orange County. The surprising part is that Walters is within striking distance of him and could beat him in a head-to-head matchup.

Mimi Walters vs. Todd Spitzer vs. Beth Krom

Spitzer 29.0%
Krom 22.0%
Walters 19.7%

Wow!!!!! This result on its own shows me that Todd Spitzer can have this seat if he wants it.

Mimi Walters vs. Ed Royce vs. Beth Krom

Walters 26.7%
Krom 23.0%
Wagner 15.7%

Don Wagner is my personal favorite of all the candidates considered in this poll but these numbers look to be a steep hill to climb in a hypothetical matchup that includes Walters.

Mimi Walters vs. Steve Young vs. Beth Krom vs. Sukhee Kang

Walters 41.0%
Krom 10.3%
Young 8.7%
Kang 7.3%

These numbers show that a Democrat winning this seat is highly unlikely. I believe that Larry Agran would be able to finish ahead of all of the rest of these folks in CD 45 on the Dem side.

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Transcript Of John Campbell Retirement Announcement

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 28, 2013

As reported here on OC Political yesterday, John Campbell announced his retirement on Hugh Hewitt’s radio show. We wanted to be able to expand on this coverage for our readers and Hugh Hewitt has made it easy by posting a transcript of the interview on his website. Click here to go to the website. The transcript went as follows:

HH: June 27th, 2013, Congressman John Campbell is in studio with me at 34 minutes after the hour live. He’s back on the West Coast, and about to make a little bit of news, Congressman Campbell. Tell people what you told me.

JC: Okay, let me, wait a minute, is my microphone…there we are, hearing the feedback. You know, Hugh, eight years ago almost to the day, I’m not sure exactly what day it was, but it was in June, eight years ago in 2005, I sat at this microphone with you and announced that I was going to run for Congress for the 48th, which I’d originally said I wasn’t going to do, and said on this show about a week before, and then you and others changed my mind and I ran, and am now in my fifth term in Congress. Well today, I’m reversing the bus a little bit. And today, I’m announcing that I will not seek reelection for a sixth term in 2014, and that in fact, I’m going to retire from Congress at the end of this term in another 18 months.

HH: Now when you told me this a couple of days ago, I was absolutely shocked, because you’re the chairman of a powerful subcommittee on a very powerful committee, you are 58 years old, you are in good health, but you have great reasons, and they are reasons that go to living a genuinely significant, happy and good life. Would you explain those to people?

JC: Okay, and yeah, you know, you could say that I haven’t peaked in Congress, and I probably haven’t. I think I’m fairly well-regarded on both sides of the aisle and so forth there, and that you know, many people leave after they’ve hit the crest and now they’re coming down, or they’ve been a chairman and now they’re not anymore or whatever. But you know, it’s never been about the power, the influence or the position for me. It’s been about serving, and it’s been about using the experience that I have, and whatever talents God gave me, to make a positive contribution. And I’ve been in full-time elected office, or I will have been by the end of this term, 14 years, including my time in the state legislature in California, which is full time as well. And I’m not a career politician. I’ve never intended to be a career politician, and so this was always something I intended to do for a while. And 14 years, first of all, and by the way, I’ve had three different offices representing four different districts, and won 16 straight elections over that 14 year career, but…primary and general elections. But it’s just time…

HH: Undefeated, untied as we say in the business.

JC: There we go. Just, it’s kind of like a USC football team.

HH: No, not really, because you’re not on probation.

JC: Yeah, yeah. Oh, no. Wait, okay, anyway, you know, it’s just time for me. You know, when…I’ve got various personal issues. I’ve actually missed some time in Congress in the last month, and will probably miss a little more, because I do have some issues that might require surgeries in my knee and my hip.

HH: They’re not chronic, they’re not, when you get older…

JC: They’re not chronic, they’re not bad.

HH: You’re not dying.

JC: No, but…

HH: You’re going to be bothering me for years with USC crap. I’m not worried, I’m not weepy.

JC: No, no, there’s nothing like that, but there’s some things like that that enter in, your kids, your family, various different things. I still have a business outside of Congress and so forth. And if I’m not able and there to give absolutely everything to this job, then I should, then I need to think about other things.

HH: Now you know what my reaction was, and I’ve known this for two days, is that this is an extraordinarily healthy thing that I wish many other Beltway people will listen to, that it’s not the end of the world to give up your job in D.C. where you have power and influence to go do something significant with the rest of your life. You’ve been very successful in business. You’re very much revered in your community, you have a wonderful family. The Captivating Mrs. Campbell is great, I know your boys. Your business, whatever you choose, we’ll talk about what you’re going to do next later. But how healthy, and this is just so rare. I mean, what did the leadership say when you told them? They must be stunned.

JC: Yeah, I told them yesterday, and I think they were surprised, but they understand, and they understood I’m not a lifer. I’ve never been, and although Generalissimo Duane is always talking about my going Beltway, I can safely say I never did that, and that my life was never in Washington. My life was in California, and here and now, increasingly in Kansas. But it’s, yeah, there are a number of my colleagues who can’t imagine walking away from the title, from the prestige, from the power, from the fawning that people who are interested in your voting card, and what you might be able to do with it, that they give you. But that’s never been what it’s about for me. It’s always been about just using the talents God gave me.

HH: Public service.

JC: And this is, by the way, as a Christian that you know that I am, this is something that involved a great deal of prayer over the last few months.

HH: How absolutely corny.

End of segment.

More on this story next week.

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BREAKING NEWS: Congressman John Campbell Retiring

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 27, 2013

On the Hugh Hewitt show just moments ago Congressman John Campbell announced that he will not seek re-election in 2014. To make it clear, this is not because of any type of scandal or wrongdoing, it appears he is simply ready to go back to private life (rather refreshing to see). This is quite a surprise to me and I am sure many other people. More on this story over the next few days as it becomes available. Best wishes from our blog to Congressman Campbell and his staff (who are always a pleasure to work with).

UPDATE 4:19 PM- Flash Report Editor Jon Fleischman just tweeted that he spoke with Senator Mimi Walters and she intends to seek the seat being vacated by Congressman Campbell in 2014.

UPDATE 6:00 PM- Forgive my Twitter style posting but this all happened as I was with a client showing a property. Here is the statement released by Congressman Campbell about his retirement:

“I have decided that I will not seek re-election to represent California’s 45th Congressional district in 2014. At the end of this term, I will have spent 14 years serving in full-time, elected politics. I am not nor did I ever intend to be a career politician. I am ready to begin a new chapter in my life. It has been an honor and a privilege to represent the district where my wife and I have raised our children. I look forward to continuing that representation for the balance of the 113th Congress. I have been blessed to have the unwavering support of my family, friends, and the residents of Orange County throughout these years, and for that I will remain forever grateful. My passion for the conservative issues for which I have fought so vocally over that span has not waned. But in the future, I will continue the fight for more freedom and a less authoritarian government as a private citizen rather than elected official. Drive fast and live free.”

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Rep. Campbell Questions Treasury Secretary on New Entitlement Spending, IMF Funding

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 19, 2013

This came across the wire a couple of days ago from the office of Congressman John Campbell:

For Immediate Release: April 17, 2013

Rep. Campbell Questions Treasury Secretary on New Entitlement Spending, IMF Funding

Click to Watch Video

“In the president’s budget, it shows that this new entitlement, at the end of the 10 year budget window, has a deficit of $5 billion. And, over time, the entitlement will increase while the revenue source will decrease. Isn’t this exactly what got us into the deficit problem we’re in? Aren’t you just replicating it with a new program?”

Washington, DC – At a House Budget Committee hearing on the presidents FY 2014 Budget proposal, Rep. John Campbell (R-CA), a senior Member of the House Budget Committee, questions Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew on how the president expects to use a new cigarette tax that he hopes will discourage smoking to perpetually pay for a new, permanent government program.  Moving to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Campbell asks Secretary Lew if President Obama thinks it is wise to send $63 billion in taxpayer dollars to the IMF when so many domestic programs are currently under pressure due to Sequestration.

Full Transcript of Line of Questioning Between Rep. Campbell and Secretary Lew:
Read the rest of this entry »

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Forgot Some Electeds: Party Affiliation Part 2

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on March 23, 2013

A reader just sent me a new database that included some elected officials that I forgot about the first time around. These offices would be Congress, Senate, and Assembly which I cannot believe I forgot. Take a look at the short but informative database of these elected officials that represent at least a portion of Orange County.

IntraPartyElephantDonkey

Here you go:

Office Name Party Year

Congress

UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 38th DISTRICT Linda Sanchez (D) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 39th DISTRICT Ed Royce (R) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 45th DISTRICT John Campbell (R) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 46th DISTRICT Loretta Sanchez (D) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 47th DISTRICT Alan Lowenthal (D) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 48th DISTRICT Dana Rohrabacher (R) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 49th DISTRICT Darrell Issa (R) 2014

Senate

STATE SENATE 29th DISTRICT Bob Huff (R) 2016
STATE SENATE 30th DISTRICT Ron Calderon (D) 2014
STATE SENATE 34th DISTRICT Lou Correa (D) 2014
STATE SENATE 36th DISTRICT Mark Wyland (R) 2014
STATE SENATE 37th DISTRICT Mimi Walters (R) 2016

Assembly

STATE ASSEMBLY 55th DISTRICT Curt Hagman (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 65th DISTRICT Sharon Quirk-Silva (D) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 68th DISTRICT Don Wagner (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 69th DISTRICT Tom Daly (D) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 72nd DISTRICT Travis Allen (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 73rd DISTRICT Diane Harkey (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 74th DISTRICT Allan Mansoor (R) 2014

Posted in 29th Senate District, 34th Senate District, 36th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, State Assembly, State Senate | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Chairman Campbell Introduces Legislation to Eliminate Future Bank Bailouts

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on February 15, 2013

This came across the wire from the office of Congressman John Campbell earlier this week:

Chairman Campbell Introduces Legislation to Eliminate Future Bank Bailouts

The Systemic Risk Mitigation Act Guarantees Taxpayer Protection from Financial Institutions Deemed “Too Big to Fail”

Washington – Tomorrow, Representative John Campbell, Chairman of the Financial Services Subcommittee on Monetary Policy and Trade, will introduce the Systemic Risk Mitigation Act, a bill to eliminate this nation’s “Too Big to Fail” problem. Currently, certain financial institutions, by nature of their size, scope and interconnectivity, are deemed “Too Big to Fail” as their potential insolvency would result in systemic economic collapse. Therefore, these institutions carry the implicit guarantee of massive, taxpayer-funded bailouts in the event of catastrophic failure. As a comprehensive reform measure, the Systemic Risk Mitigation Act would clearly articulate the lines between private sector risk and the taxpayer by means of significantly ratcheting up capital requirements for large financial institutions.

Upon introducing the Systemic Risk Mitigation Act, Chairman Campbell explained,“The ‘Too Big to Fail’ problem has not been fixed and remains a serious threat to our future prosperity. We don’t want to be like Europe. The more concentrated our banking sector is, the less stable it is and the more subject to systemic risk it becomes. This legislation solves that problem by disconnecting the American taxpayer from the implicit guarantee currently perpetuating a system built on future bailouts.  It will build a wall of private capital between the banking sector and the American taxpayer. It will make our banking system more transparent, accountable, competitive, and stable.

The Systemic Risk Mitigation Act would set up a comprehensive regulatory structure requiring financial institutions to hold a second layer of capital for the purpose of minimizing the extent to which their failure would precipitate broader market and economic turmoil. Under this new structure, large financial institutions will be required to hold substantially more capital. In the event of a failure, investors will be explicitly denied any “bailout” and would only be repaid after all other systemically important and secured debts are satisfied.

Under this legislation, the Federal Reserve, in its role as a regulator of large financial institutions, would be required to monitor markets for signs of diminished confidence in an institution’s ability to satisfy claims by investors.  Should a financial institution become undercapitalized, the Federal Reserve would be empowered to intervene in order to notify the institution of the deficiency, conduct stress tests, and oversee the implementation of remediation plans. In the event that an institution is unable to raise sufficient capital, TheSystemic Risk Mitigation Act would place it into receivership.

Importantly, this legislation gives financial institutions, not policymakers, the final decision on how they will decide to structure themselves.The Systemic Risk Mitigation Act does not force a financial institution to break itself up, but does require that it operate in a manner that is safe, accountable, and independent of any reliance on the U.S. taxpayer.

“Congress must address the ‘Too Big to Fail’ problem,” stressed Chairman Campbell. “The goal of my legislation is not to harm U.S. banks, but to make them safer, more secure, and much more stable. In this way, consumer confidence will also be boosted. Banking is a business centered on confidence, and increased confidence is in the best interest of both the industry and the economy.”

The Systemic Risk Mitigation Act has been referred to the Committee on Financial Services.

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Rep. Blumenauer and Rep. Campbell Introduce Taxpayer Protection Amendment to “Sandy” Relief Bill

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on January 18, 2013

This came across the wire earlier this week from the office of Congressman John Campbell:

Rep. Blumenauer and Rep. Campbell Introduce Taxpayer Protection Amendment to “Sandy” Relief Bill

Washington, DC – Today, Congressman Earl Blumenauer (OR-3) and Congressman John Campbell (CA-45) offered an amendment to H.R. 152, the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013, which would protect federal taxpayers from being burdened with an unfair share of the cost of projects extending beyond those specifically assisting victims of Hurricane Sandy.

Most beach renourishment projects take place under a 65% federal, 35% nonfederal cost-share agreement, with continuing replenishment cost-shared at 50% federal. These projects are often done at the urging of local communities and most of the benefits flow locally, so it makes sense for those communities to pay a share of the cost. However, an amendment offered by Congressman Frelinghuysen (NJ-11) would waive the 35% nonfederal share for many of these projects and could be interpreted to go even further and raise the federal cost share for continuing replenishment projects from 50% to 100%.

The Blumenauer-Campbell amendment clarifies language in the Frelinghuysen amendment that could inadvertently waive the nonfederal cost-share for ongoing construction projects unrelated to Hurricane Sandy. Any waiver of local cost-share for these projects should be limited to the funds provided in H.R. 152.

“We need to rebuild,” said Congressman Blumenauer, “but we also need to make sure that taxpayer dollars are being spent wisely , and not on projects that could be ongoing for 10, 20, 50 years and have nothing to do with the damage inflicted by Sandy.”

“This amendment is a simple, yet very important clarification that shields the American taxpayer from picking up the tab for ongoing and even future construction projects along the Northeastern seaboard that have absolutely nothing to do with the damage caused by Sandy,” said Congressman Campbell. “It’s a common sense amendment that ensures federal funds are restricted solely and specifically to the recovery efforts for which they are intended.”

Most beach renourishment projects are literally “under construction” for decades. For example, according to the Congressional Research Service, beach renourishment projects, “generally remain as active Corps construction projects for up to 50 years, because their initial construction, which often consists of a constructed dune or beach, is followed by regular “renourishment” activities (i.e., replacement of sand).”

“Waving the local cost-share for completion of ongoing beach-nourishment projects is not only fiscally irresponsible, it also decreases local communities’ appropriate obligation to be involved in and support projects that benefit them,” continued Blumenauer. “Our amendment simply clarifies that the waiver only applies to the funds in the bill.”

This amendment is supported by National Wildlife Federation, Taxpayers for Common Sense, the Reinsurance Association of America, the Association of State Floodplain Managers, the Water Protection Network, and the R Street Institute.

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1-14-2013 John Campbell Newsletter

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on January 14, 2013

This just came across the wire from the office of Congressman John Campbell:

Monday, January 14, 2013

Debt Limit: The president says that we should just extend the debt limit, or cede the authority to him to expand it as he wishes. I’m sure he probably doesn’t think we even need such a discipline at all. He says he will not negotiate on this issue. He says that Congress has already approved all the spending that led to these deficits. Read the rest of this entry »

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