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2012 General Election Predictions: 65th Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 17, 2012

Now we get to what many people think will be the most competitive race in Orange County. I am afraid that I have bad news on this one for Democrats. This district is a Fullerton fight between longtime Fullertonian Chris Norby and Fullerton Mayor Sharon Quirk-Silva.

The district though spans even larger than Fullerton having Buena Park, Cypress, Stanton, & La Palma also within its boundaries:

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

In the interest of full disclosure my business partner and one of my co-editors on the blog Chris Nguyen has a full-time job working for the district staff of Chris Norby. I also want to point out that I did not talk to Chris Nguyen prior to writing this and he did not have any influence on this analysis.

One might argue that the voter registration is extremely close with Republicans at 38.0%, Democrats at 36.6%, and DTS at 21.0%. Although Republicans have just a 1.4% registration advantage DTS voters lean-to the right in this Orange County only district.

Looking at all 2010 races in this area the only race that Democrats won was the race for State Treasurer where the Democrats won by an amazing 0.14%. The other factor looking at things from an elections standpoint is the glorified poll that took place in June:

Member of the State Assembly; District 65

  • Chris Norby, Republican ………. 29,917 votes 58.8%
  • Sharon Quirk-Silva, Democratic ………. 20,936 votes 41.2%

My thoughts before the primary were that Quirk-Silva needed to finish with at least 45% of the vote to be competitive in June. These primary results surprised even me as I thought Norby would get around 56% of the vote. As you can see from the results Norby is positioned well based on the voters position in June.

Financially Norby also has an advantage having $136,636.01 in his account as of June 30th and Quirk-Silva having a bit less with $106,070.16 in her account as of the same time period. These are two very comparable numbers, but the fact of the matter is that a challenger (especially one with a poor June showing) needs to outspend their opponent.

With these factors already in place I will now point out a huge wild card in this race. They both have bi-partisan support amongst elected officials in this race. Stanton Mayor Carol Warren has crossed party lines to endorse Norby. Quirk-Silva has the support of Republican Brea Councilman Ron Garcia (Brea is not in the 65th). As for elected Councilmembers in the 65th Assembly district Norby has the advantage of 21 endorsements while Quirk-Silva lags behind at 5.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Chris Norby

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2012 General Election Predictions: 55th Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 17, 2012

If you are reading this I want to note that I am currently out of the country on vacation to Spain for 2 weeks and have scheduled my prediction posts to go off for this week. So, don’t be offended if I don’t reply to comments you leave behind.

The 55th Assembly District is another hybrid Orange County, Los Angeles County, and San Bernardino County seat represented by my former Assembly Representative Curt Hagman:

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

As you can see Orange County clearly has a majority of this seat. However, both candidates running for this seat are from outside of Orange C0unty. Hagman is from San Bernardino County while Fritchle is from Los Angeles County.

The results from June tell the true story though of what to expect. We had a race where Fritchle did not even finish ahead of his party registration:

Member of the State Assembly; District 55

  • Curt Hagman, Republican ………. 40,268 votes 69.1%
  • Gregg D. Fritchle, Democratic ………. 17,994 votes 30.9%

In case you were wondering Republicans have 41.7% registration, Democrats have 31.6% registration, and DTS have 22.8% registration.

Even if Hagman did no campaigning whatsoever he would still win the race based on this massive victory that he had in June. The campaign finance reports from the Secretary of State office tell us that the money is also one-sided as Hagman had just over $225,000 after the primary and Fritchle did not even raise enough to trigger online filing.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Curt Hagman

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Lincoln Club Makes Endorsements

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 14, 2012

This came across the wire from the Lincoln Club of Orange County:

Local Elections / Endorsements Ad Hoc Committee’s

SUMMARY OF CANDIDATE ENDORSEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS for Nov. 2012

Read the rest of this entry »

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2012 General Election Predictions: 37th Senate District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 13, 2012

When the argument was made that the Senate seats were going to become more moderate in California I figured Orange County likely wouldn’t be affected. It appears that I was right and the 37th Senate District is a great example of that:

Republican voter registration is 16% higher than that of the Democrats. Much like some of the other districts in Orange County this season the DTS voter registration is just 6% behind the registration of Democrats.

Walters was in a head to head race with Steve Young in the primary election, so we got a preview of this race in what could be best considered a glorified poll:

State Senator; District 37

  • Mimi Walters, Republican ………. 88,321 votes 63.6%
  • Steve Young, Democratic ………. 50,562 votes 36.4%

These results show me that Steve Young is not going to be able to be competitive in November. It doesn’t help that he is a perennial candidate for office. Having lost twice previously to Congressman John Campbell in 2008 and 2006.

The fundraising numbers are also indicative of what to expect in November. Walter currently has just under $265,000 in her campaign account after the primary election. Young on the other hand has just over $15,000.

After a couple of my earlier posts handicapping races I got some e-mails arguing that the campaign being run can make a difference. My take on this specific race is that the OC GOP is far superior to the DPOC in terms of getting organized and turning out voters. Young simply does not have the money raised to do it on his own, which is what he would have to do.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Mimi Walters

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2012 General Election Predictions: 29th Senate District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 13, 2012

(Sorry Greg but you are not going to like my prediction here. Feel free to chime in with your own take if you like.)

The 29th Senate District is the seat currently held by Bob Huff who is just finishing up his first term in the Senate:

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

The registration advantage for Republicans over Democrats is just 5% but 22% of voters are DTS and in this district those DTS voters lean-to the right. The party line vote held pretty steady for Huff in the primary:

State Senator; District 29

  • Robert “Bob” Huff, Republican ………. 68,708 votes 64.3%
  • Greg Diamond, Democratic ………. 38,169 votes 35.7%

Diamond finished 1.5% above Democratic registration in the district. Understandably turnout for Democrats will be slightly increased in the general election but it just won’t be enough to get Huff under 60%. I am actually a bit disappointed though because I would like to see Huff challenged a bit stronger not because I want to see him lose but because he has been on the wrong side of issues like redevelopment agencies among other things.

It won’t be a challenge to get his message out their either because Huff currently has just over $400,000 cash on hand for this race. Diamond on the other hand has not raised enough to trigger electronic filing on the Secretary of State website.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Bob Huff

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2012 General Election Predictions: 49th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 12, 2012

This is the last in my handicapping series for Congressional races as it is the last race in Orange County having the City of Dana Point within its boundaries along with Las Flores and Ladera Ranch:

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for the map.

Much like the 48th Congressional District this seat has a 15% Republican registration advantage and DTS voters only trail Democrats by 6% in registration. On top of this DTS voters are more conservative in this area.

Darrell Issa who currently holds the seat has great name I in San Diego which holds the majority of the district. The results in the primary are not a huge surprise:

United States Representative; District 49

  • Darrell Issa, Republican ………. 71,329 votes 61.1%
  • Jerry Tetalman, Democratic ………. 35,816 votes 30.7%
  • Dick Eiden ………. 7,988 votes 6.8%
  • Albin Novinec ………. 1,626 votes 1.4%

Tetalman ran 1 point ahead of Democratic registration but that is an indicator that Issa will gain a similar amount of the votes that went to the 2 DTS candidates. Even if Tetalman were to get all of the votes from Dick Eiden and Albin Novinec it would not matter.

To make matters worse for Tetalman, Issa currently has over $1,000,000 in the bank after the primary. Tetalman on the other hand has just over $6,000.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Darrell Issa

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2012 General Election Predictions: 48th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 12, 2012

After looking at a one of the most competitive seats in California yesterday, we know go back to the boring and obvious. In this case though the boring and obvious looks to be a good thing for Republicans.

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

As you can see from the map Republicans not only hold a 17% registration advantage over Democrats, but Democrats are holding just a slim 7% advantage over DTS voters. With DTS voters leaning more conservative in this area it leads to what will likely be one of the slam dunk races in Orange County.

Congressman Dana Rohrabacher has held this seat for a while and has strong name ID especially in Huntington Beach & Costa Mesa which are the 2 largest cities in the district. Ron Varasteh just simply does not have the name ID.

Results in the primary also show that Rohrabacher is in a strong position to win with over 65& of the vote:

United States Representative; District 48

  • Dana Rohrabacher, Republican ………. 73,302 votes 66.3%
  • Ron Varasteh, Democratic ………. 31,912 votes 28.9%
  • Alan Schlar ………. 5,355 votes 4.8%

Varasteh ran directly in line with voter registration for his party and with Schlar running as a DTS candidate his votes will likely split between Rohrabacher and Varasteh.

Fundraising also is an advantage for Rohrabacher as when I tried to pull up the financial numbers for Ron Varasteh on the FEC website it informed me that he had no information to report. Rohrabacher reports over $280,000 cash on hand after the primary.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Dana Rohrabacher

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2012 General Election Predictions: 47th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 11, 2012

This seat is going to be the most competitive in Orange County, even though the largest part of the district is Long Beach. Take a look at the map with statistics:

Thank you to Meridian-Pacific for the use of their maps.

As you can see there is a 10% registration advantage for Democrats. However, DTS voters will lean more conservatively in this race. On top of the DTS voters the Orange County cities have a higher turnout level than the Long Beach portion of the district. In other words you have a very competitive seat on your hands.

The results from the primary election also show that it will be competitive, as Alan Lowenthal (D) ran  just slightly ahead of Gary DeLong (R):

United States Representative; District 47

  • Alan Lowenthal, Democratic ………. 27,356 votes 33.8%
  • Gary Delong, Republican ………. 23,831 votes 29.4%
  • Steven T. Kuykendall, Republican ………. 8,769 votes 10.8%
  • Peter Mathews, Democratic ………. 7,951 votes 9.8%
  • Steve Foley, Republican ………. 5,848 votes 7.2%
  • Sanford W. Kahn, Republican ………. 2,563 votes 3.2%
  • Usha Shah, Democratic ………. 2,350 votes 2.9%
  • Jay Shah, Democratic ………. 2,273 votes 2.8%

Recently Probolsky research conducted a poll on behalf of the DeLong campaign that showed a good chance of a close race that slightly leans towards DeLong. You can see the memo that went out here. These results show that DeLong is in a slight lead for the seat.

Alan Lowenthal has just under $217,000 after the primary and Gary DeLong has about a $100,000 lead with just under $317,000 after the primary.

This race is extremely close in about every aspect from voter registration, fundraising, and campaigning (so far).

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Gary DeLong

Posted in 47th Congressional District | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

2012 General Election Prediction: 46th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 11, 2012

This race is the one that Republicans always get excited about with dreams of taking Loretta Sanchez out of office every 2 years. Loretta has never truly had a competitive race for this seat. Lets take a look at results since 1998:

1998- United States Representative; District 46

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 47,964 votes 56.5%
  • Robert Kenneth “Bob” Dornan, Republican ………. 33,388 votes 39.3%
  • Thomas E. Reimer, Libertarian ………. 2,316 votes 2.7%
  • Larry G. Engwall, Natural Law ………. 1,334 votes 1.5%

2000- United States Representative; District 46

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 70,381 votes 60.3%
  • Gloria Matta Tuchman, Republican ………. 40,928 votes 35%
  • Richard B. Boddie, Libertarian ………. 3,159 votes 2.7%
  • Larry Engwall, Natural Law ………. 2,440 votes 2%

2002- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 41,282 votes 60.9%
  • Jeff Chavez, Republican ………. 23,662 votes 34.9%
  • Paul Marsden, Libertarian ………. 2,871 votes 4.2%
  • Kenneth M. Valenzuela Fisher (Write-in)
  • Michael J. Monge (Write-in)

2004- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 65,684 votes 60.4%
  • Alexandria A. “Alex” Coronado, Republican ………. 43,099 votes 39.6%

2006- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 42,822 votes 61.8%
  • Tan Nguyen, Republican ………. 26,507 votes 38.2%

2008- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 85,706 votes 69.5%
  • Rosemarie Avila, Republican ………. 31,397 votes 25.5%
  • Robert Lauten, American Independent ………. 6,265 votes 5.0%

2010- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 50,832 votes 53.0%
  • Van Tran, Republican ………. 37,679 votes 39.3%
  • Cecilia Iglesias, Independent ………. 7,443 votes 7.7%

Van Tran is the one race where you could argue that he got Loretta under 60% and made her have to actually spend resources and run a real campaign. However, having another female Latina on the ballot on Ceci Iglesias likely pulled more votes from Sanchez than Tran.

Looking at the new 46th Congressional District it has become a bit more Republican with the addition of a portion of Orange. Here is the map of the district:

As always thank you to Meridian-Pacific for the use of their maps.

The Democrats currently have a 44%-32% registration advantage over Republicans, but the 19% of DTS voters lean-to the left in this district. Republicans did beat their registration by a substantial margin in the primary if you combine all of their votes:

United States Representative; District 46

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 25,706 votes 52.1%
  • Jerry Hayden, Republican ………. 14,571 votes 29.5%
  • John J. Cullum, Republican ………. 5,251 votes 10.6%
  • Jorge Rocha ………. 1,969 votes 4.0%
  • Pat Garcia, Republican ………. 1,852 votes 3.8%

Jerry Hayden did not have much competition in the primary, but he is in for what could be considered an uphill battle at best for the general election.

The fundraising in this race says it all. Loretta Sanchez despite being wiped out by Kindee Durkee has already rebuilt her campaign account having over $1,000,000 cash on hand after the primary. Jerry Hayden holds just over $12,000.

The name ID advantage also goes to Loretta Sanchez who is far better known in Santa Ana than Jerry Hayden is. This race is shaping up to be more of the same for Loretta.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Loretta Sanchez

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2012 General Election Prediction: 45th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 11, 2012

This race in the primary pitted Tea Party darling John Webb, sitting U.S. Congressman John Campbell, and Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang for the right to advance to November. The results were extremely one-sided with John Campbell

United States Representative; District 45

  • John Campbell, Republican ………. 54,346 votes 51.0%
  • Sukhee Kang, Democratic ………. 35,182 votes 33.0%
  • John Webb, Republican ………. 17,014 votes 16.0%

As you can see from the results posted to the “Smart Voter” website despite having a Republican opponent Congressman Campbell still managed to break 50% in the primary.

Here is the map of the 45th Congressional District:

As always thanks to Meridian-Pacific for the use of their map.

I will give Sukhee Kang credit for running 5% above Democratic registration. However, with 22% of voters registered as DTS Kang did not have a great showing in the whole scheme of things. Also remember that Democrats tried the Irvine Councilmember strategy back in 2010 running Beth Krom against John Campbell. Krom did not have a great showing either:

United States Representative; District 48

  • John Campbell, Republican ………. 145,481 votes 60.0%
  • Beth Krom, Democratic ………. 88,465 votes 36.4%
  • Mike Binkley, Libertarian ………. 8,773 votes 3.6%

Kang is from Irvine, the largest city in the 45th Congressional District but unfortunately for him John Campbell also is from Irvine.

With a 20% Asian population in CD 45 you could make the argument that Kang will be one of the more competitive candidates in years. I would argue that party affiliation is more important when running for partisan office.

The fundraising tells a similar story with John Campbell at over $1,000,000 cash on hand after the primary election and Sukhee Kang having under $250,000 cash on hand. This is over a 4:1 ratio for the sitting Congressman.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

John Campbell

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