OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 38th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 10, 2012

UPDATED 2:41 PM With Explanation.

I was going to post this yesterday but Chris Nguyen kind of stole the show with this post.

This will be the first post in a series of predictions on all races that involve any part of Orange County. We will start with a look at the 38th Congressional District which covers just a tiny piece of Orange County (La Palma). Thank you to the people at Meridian Pacific for posting these great maps on their website.

As a matter of fact Chris Nguyen wrote a post that states the California Redistricting Commission forgot that La Palma was part of Orange County.

This seat is a stronghold for Democrats who have over a 20 point advantage in registration. Looking at the numbers from 2010, no Republican for any major office ended up winning in this district. The only victory here that was not supported by the Democratic Party would be Proposition 8 passing by around 20 points.

Currently Congresswoman Linda Sanchez holds this seat and has been representing this area for a while.

Challengers include Benjamin Campos a Certified Public Accountant that has a business based in Long Beach. He is listed as a Republican on the ballot.

The other challenger is Jorge Robles a Law Enforcement Officer that appears to have a business based in Montebello. He is also listed as a Republican on the ballot.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Linda Sanchez & Jorge Robles

The factors at play- I have gotten a couple of e-mails asking me to further explain what factors are at play that made me arrive at my prediction. I assure you that this is not a crystal ball or a flip of a coin.

Linda Sanchez is the only Democrat on the ballot in what is a very liberal seat. She also has incumbency on her side. She will advance based on these factors alone not to mention relatively high name ID.

The other two candidates are both Republicans and they will both pull from the same base of voters. However, I believe that voters are more likely to support someone who is involved in law enforcement as opposed to a CPA.

Posted in 38th Congressional District | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Dr. Ken Williams Signs Pledge to Never Raise Taxes

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 10, 2012

This just came across the wire from the Williams for OCBE campaign (Full disclosure: Custom Campaigns is the consulting firm running this race):

 

Dr. Ken Williams Signs Pledge to Never Raise Taxes

Irvine, CA (April 9, 2012) – Orange County Board of Education Trustee Ken Williams has signed a pledge, promising never to raise taxes on his constituents. Dr. Williams has also consistently voted to never raise taxes during his tenure on the Orange County Board of Education

“I have always felt that the government has been overtaxing the people,” Williams said. “I have fought to make sure that the County Board of Education doesn’t place tax burdens on our constituents.  I will continue to be the only taxpayer advocate running for this office.”

As a member of the Orange County Board of Education, Williams has served his constituents as their consistent conservative voice on the board, promoting traditional family values, public safety and safe schools, high academic standards, educational accountability, parental rights, and a “back to basics” approach to education.

During his first campaign for office in 1996, Williams defeated a twenty-year incumbent by running on a “back-to-basics education” theme that resonated with the voters of Trustee Area 3.  A home-grown community leader, he is a native of Orange County who graduated from the county’s public schools.  He is a family physician in private medical practice since 1986, and   is on the medical staff at St. Joseph Hospital, Hoag Hospital, and family practice department chairman at Children’s Hospital of Orange County.

Trustee Area 3 consists of the cities of Brea, Irvine, Orange, Villa Park, and Yorba Linda; the communities of Anaheim Hills and North Tustin; and portions of East Anaheim, Lake Forest, Tustin, and Orange County’s canyon communities.

###

 

Posted in Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Deborah Pauly + Campaign Finance = Uh-Oh!!!!!

Posted by HBK on April 9, 2012

Hiring a campaign treasurer is not a bad idea for a political campaign to do. Some people look to hire Lisa Ray, Kelly Lawler, or somebody else that is not Kindee Durkee. If a candidate decides not to hire a treasurer the forms are fairly easy to figure out. However, in some situations you see certain campaigns finance reports that are a train wreck.


Deborah Pauly had some issues with her campaign finance report and also some other interesting factoids that I will point out.

1) The report was due on March 22nd yet she signed her form on March 29th. Tis shows that she was a week late in even putting her form together and based on the report and the lack of activity it is confusing as to what could have possibly taken her so long.

2) The form was turned in over a week late on March 30th. This will likely draw a fine from the FPPC as this is likely to have been forwarded to the appropriate desk at the FPPC from the Spitzer team. Again, why does a form with so few contributions require so much time to put together.

3) She has less than $2400 cash on hand. This should be pretty self-explanatory to readers.

4) $450 contribution received from Marilyn Davenport … yes, the same Marilyn Davenport who sent out the racist Obama email.

5) One person involved with CRA who has seen this has commented that it is possible that she purposely turned in her form late so that she wouldn’t have to explain her lack of support during the CRA endorsement meeting.

Todd is clearly going to win this race, the question really comes down to what the margin of victory is on election day.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , | 4 Comments »

Has AD-69 Candidate Jose Moreno Violated Federal Law?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 9, 2012

U.S. Senator Carl Hatch (D-NM)

U.S. Senator Carl Hatch (D-NM), author of the eponymous Hatch Act

In a rather unfortunate turn of events, it appears AD-69 candidate Jose “Joe” Moreno may have violated federal law. (Remember, this Jose Moreno should not be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno.) The explanation for this lies in a Fresno County Assembly district.

On Friday, the Fresno Bee reported that Republican Geof Lickey withdrew from the AD-31 race against incumbent Democrat Henry Perea. The Bee indicated Lickey had indeed met the March 9 filing deadline and qualified for the ballot before his withdrawal; this March 23 list of candidates who qualified for the ballot from the Secretary of State also confirms this. Lickey was able to remove himself from the ballot, as this April 4 list from the Secretary of State indicates Perea is the sole candidate in AD-31.

The Bee reported, “The Hatch Act bars federal employees from using government resources for partisan purposes. But Lickey was told it also prohibited him from running for partisan political office — even though he doesn’t work for a federal agency.”

The Hatch Act, named after its author, U.S. Senator Carl Hatch (D-NM), was adopted to reduce the usage of federal government jobs to advance partisan political ends after Works Progress Administration officials were found to be using their positions to win votes for Hatch’s party.  Hatch was outraged by this corruption from his own party and wrote the Hatch Act.  Two attempts to have the act overturned on free speech grounds were rejected by the U.S. Supreme Court, who held that the Hatch Act is constitutional.

Among other things, the Hatch Act prohibits covered employees from being “candidates for public office in a partisan election.”

Potential candidates covered by the Hatch Act should act with caution before entering partisan politics. Indeed, when speculation surrounded a potential State Senate candidacy by California Unemployment Insurance Appeals Board Member Sharon Runner in 2010, she refused to even comment on whether she would enter the race due to the Hatch Act. Only after Runner resigned from the CUIAB did she announce that she was running for the State Senate (which she went on to win).

Moreno selected “Orange County Eligibility Technician” as his ballot designation, and that, of course, is his actual job. What does an Eligibility Technician at the County of Orange do? Well, here’s the County’s job description.

So how does the federal Hatch Act apply to a county employee like Moreno?

Well, the U.S. Office of Special Counsel states, “The Hatch Act restricts the political activity of individuals principally employed by state or local executive agencies and who work in connection with programs financed in whole or in part by federal loans or grants.”

According to the County’s job description, part of Moreno’s job is: “explaining and administering laws and policies pertaining to Federal/State/County assistance programs.”

(If you’re wondering why partisan elected officials aren’t banned from running for re-election, elected officials are exempted from the Hatch Act if their elected post deals with federal dollars and their elected post would be the sole cause for a Hatch Act conflict. It would be kind of funny, though, if the Hatch Act prevented every Governor in the country from running for re-election because states administer many federally-funded programs.)

As I mentioned above, the Hatch Act prohibits covered employees from being “candidates for public office in a partisan election.”

In light of Prop 14, is a race for the Assembly still a partisan election since candidates are no longer nominated by political parties?

Under the Hatch Act FAQs: “if a candidate solicits or advertises the endorsement of a partisan political party or uses a political party’s resources to further his or her campaign, these actions may rebut the presumption that an election is nonpartisan, and thus, indicate that the election is a partisan one. While each case is fact specific, the Board has consistently held that it is less about the title used, and more about the actions of the candidate.”

More definitively, the U.S. Office of Special Counsel issued an advisory opinion in 2001 stating, “For purposes of the Hatch Act, an election is deemed partisan if political party designations appear on a ballot next to candidates’ names.”

Moreno listed himself on the ballot as a Republican. He also told the Orange County Register that he had sought financing from the Republican Party to pay the filing fee to run for Assembly.

It looks like the Hatch Act may put an end to the Moreno candidacy for AD-69.

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 36 Comments »

CD 45 Mailbox: Campbell In The Mail First

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 7, 2012

We have our first mailer in the newly drawn 45th Congressional District from Congressman John Campbell. I expect that we will see quite a few more from him.




Posted in 45th Congressional District, Mail | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Supervisor Bill Campbell’s Third District Report

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 7, 2012

This came over the wire from Supervisor Bill Campbell’s office yesterday…

Photo of Supervisor Campbell, Bill Campbell Supervisor 3rd District, Newsletter, Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Good Friday Fraud Email Alert: “Bold Explanations” Needed from Dan Hughes

Posted by Republican Willie Brown on April 6, 2012

The email-gate saga continues with Dan Hughes for US Senate (should be mosquito abatement district).

Several weeks ago you may have been attacked in your email box like me, through a list you never signed up for, and received an email from Dan Hughes plagiarizing, verbatim, text from the United States Conference on Catholic Bishops on contraception with no attribution. 

Now this.  

I’m preparing to enjoy Good Friday with my family to commemorate the crucifixion of Jesus and his death at Calvary, when what pops up in my inbox?  

A fundraising email from Dan Hughes, the unapologetic, elusive Senate candidate from San Diego (really from New York) touting a poll in which he is at 2%, or in other words 49% behind Dianne Feinstein.  

Now, the poll conducted by SurveyUSA is certainly less than credible by any professional standards (more on that later), but nonetheless let’s assume it has some credibility.  Dan Hughes suggests he is leading the GOP field of candidates, but apparently he forgot to check the actual tally and relied on the percentage.  Whoops…..he is actually tied with Emken, 24 votes to 24 votes.

I can’t wait to hear his “bold explanation” for this error; one of many errors made by his campaign of late.

Advice to Mr. Hughes: 1) A fundraising email on Good Friday is really tacky and my devout Catholic mother-in-law was deeply offended to receive it, 2) Check and re-check your numbers before you own them, and, 3) Strategically, you should think twice before you rubber stamp a recommendation from your campaign team to promote a poll that shows you at 2%.

On that note, I bid you a good Easter weekend.

Posted in California | Tagged: | 2 Comments »

Nation’s Largest Taxpayer Group Honors Campbell with “Taxpayers’ Friend Award”

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 6, 2012

This just came across the wire from the office of Congressman John Campbell:

Nation’s Largest Taxpayer Group Honors Campbell with “Taxpayers’ Friend Award”

 WASHINGTON – U.S. Representative John Campbell today was recognized for his outstanding pro-taxpayer voting record last year. The 362,000-member National Taxpayers Union (NTU), a nonpartisan citizen group, has announced that Campbell is among the distinguished recipients of the 2011 “Taxpayers’ Friend Award.Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

CD-39: Ed Royce in the Mail

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 6, 2012

I received my first political mailer of this primary election cycle on Wednesday from Congressman Ed Royce.  It includes a pre-filled permanent vote-by-mail ballot (permanent absentee ballot) application.  The application requires no postage but is sent to Royce’s campaign office.

The piece emphasizes California’s probable relevance in the Republican presidential primary and urges voters to take their chance to defeat Barack Obama and stop Nancy Pelosi from becoming Speaker of the House.  Royce signs it with “Vice-Chairman, NRCC” as his title.

The piece is 8.5″ x 11″ and becomes 17″ x 11″ when opened up.

Click for PDF

Click on the picture to view a larger version.

Posted in 39th Congressional District, Mail | Tagged: , , | 4 Comments »

Assemblyman Chris Norby Names Dr. Sueling Chen Woman of the Year

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 6, 2012

This came over the wire from Assemblyman Chris Norby’s office last week…

Assemblyman Chris Norby Names Dr. Sueling Chen Woman of the Year

For Immediate Release

SACRAMENTO (March 26, 2012) – Assemblyman Chris Norby announced today that he has named Dr. Sueling Chen as Woman of the Year for his North Orange County Assembly District.

“In a wide-ranging search, I requested nominations from people and organizations across North Orange County,” Assemblyman Norby said. “I was pleased with the wide array of nominations and humbled by the great contributions to the community by so many women in my district.”

Numerous individual citizens and groups submitted nominations for Woman of the Year on Assemblyman Norby’s web site during the month of January. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 65th Assembly District | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »