This came across the wire from the Lincoln Club of Orange County:
Local Elections / Endorsements Ad Hoc Committee’s
SUMMARY OF CANDIDATE ENDORSEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS for Nov. 2012
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 13, 2012
When the argument was made that the Senate seats were going to become more moderate in California I figured Orange County likely wouldn’t be affected. It appears that I was right and the 37th Senate District is a great example of that:
Republican voter registration is 16% higher than that of the Democrats. Much like some of the other districts in Orange County this season the DTS voter registration is just 6% behind the registration of Democrats.
Walters was in a head to head race with Steve Young in the primary election, so we got a preview of this race in what could be best considered a glorified poll:
State Senator; District 37
These results show me that Steve Young is not going to be able to be competitive in November. It doesn’t help that he is a perennial candidate for office. Having lost twice previously to Congressman John Campbell in 2008 and 2006.
The fundraising numbers are also indicative of what to expect in November. Walter currently has just under $265,000 in her campaign account after the primary election. Young on the other hand has just over $15,000.
After a couple of my earlier posts handicapping races I got some e-mails arguing that the campaign being run can make a difference. My take on this specific race is that the OC GOP is far superior to the DPOC in terms of getting organized and turning out voters. Young simply does not have the money raised to do it on his own, which is what he would have to do.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:
Mimi Walters
Posted in 37th Senate District | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 13, 2012
(Sorry Greg but you are not going to like my prediction here. Feel free to chime in with your own take if you like.)
The 29th Senate District is the seat currently held by Bob Huff who is just finishing up his first term in the Senate:
Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.
The registration advantage for Republicans over Democrats is just 5% but 22% of voters are DTS and in this district those DTS voters lean-to the right. The party line vote held pretty steady for Huff in the primary:
State Senator; District 29
Diamond finished 1.5% above Democratic registration in the district. Understandably turnout for Democrats will be slightly increased in the general election but it just won’t be enough to get Huff under 60%. I am actually a bit disappointed though because I would like to see Huff challenged a bit stronger not because I want to see him lose but because he has been on the wrong side of issues like redevelopment agencies among other things.
It won’t be a challenge to get his message out their either because Huff currently has just over $400,000 cash on hand for this race. Diamond on the other hand has not raised enough to trigger electronic filing on the Secretary of State website.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:
Bob Huff
Posted in 29th Senate District | Tagged: Bob Huff, Greg Diamond | Leave a Comment »
Posted by HBK on September 13, 2012
As others here have noted, Anaheim politics nowadays makes for strange bedfellows and alliances.
Anaheim Councilwoman Lorri Galloway has been the toughest critic of the city’s deal with the GardenWalk project, under which Anaheim rebates 80% of the hotel project’s transient occupancy tax revenue back to the two hotels for 15 years. This is larger than the 50-50 TOT splits the city has done in the past with resort district hotels.
Galloway has denounced the GardenWalk deal as a “tax giveaway” and declares this is not “a good time to give $158 million of taxpayer money away to one developer.”
A few years ago, she thought it was a good idea to give tax money to a developer, far in excess of normal standards. This excerpt from a October 2008 post on a now-dormant blog called “No On Galloway” explains how when it came to an Anaheim affordable housing project called the Elm Street Commons, a different view of developer subsidies prevailed:
“It seems the funding on this project got a little creative. On November 28, 2006, SADI, the developer for Elm Street Commons, came to City Council to have their standard DDA approved through the Housing Authority. Standard practice in Anaheim is to give the developer money, to be paid back over time, 85% to the City, and the developer keep 15% as profit. The 85% is then recycled into more housing projects, which keeps Anaheim building apartments for the working poor. Whether you agree with building subsidized housing or not, it is an efficient system. In the development of the Elm Street Commons, the City offered many millions of dollars in direct funding, plus incentives added later such as a sewer project the developer decided the City should do. Rather than approve the otherwise ordinary deal, now-convicted-felon Richard Chavez pulled the development from the Consent Calendar, allowing discussion. In the end, the City Council, led by Chavez and backed by Lorri Galloway, changed the condition of the agreement, bumping the developer’s profit from the standard 15% to a whopping and unprecedented 50% profit for a private corporation!!”
Increasing the traditional 50-50 TOT split to 80-20 for one developer is a “tax giveaway.” But increasing the city-funded profit margin from 15% to 50% for another developer is legitimate?
The post continues:
“Why would Lorri Galloway take money from the very people she claims to champion? Perhaps the answer is in her Council statement, as she looked at the developer and admonished him, “I hope you acknowledge how much Council has been supportive of you.”
“Well the developers at Elm Street Commons sure did remember to acknowledge that 35% jump in their profits, funded by robbing Anaheim’s working poor. Again funneling money through PAC filings with Treasurer Kinde Durkee, who is frequently under investigation by the FPPC, a donation of $15,000 was made by Elm Street, which funded the Clear Channel billboards Lorri has all over the City. They also underwrote a large mailing, and the graphic arts for the mail piece.”
Food for thought.
Posted in Anaheim | Tagged: Anaheim, Lorri Galloway | 3 Comments »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 12, 2012
This is the last in my handicapping series for Congressional races as it is the last race in Orange County having the City of Dana Point within its boundaries along with Las Flores and Ladera Ranch:
Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for the map.
Much like the 48th Congressional District this seat has a 15% Republican registration advantage and DTS voters only trail Democrats by 6% in registration. On top of this DTS voters are more conservative in this area.
Darrell Issa who currently holds the seat has great name I in San Diego which holds the majority of the district. The results in the primary are not a huge surprise:
United States Representative; District 49
Tetalman ran 1 point ahead of Democratic registration but that is an indicator that Issa will gain a similar amount of the votes that went to the 2 DTS candidates. Even if Tetalman were to get all of the votes from Dick Eiden and Albin Novinec it would not matter.
To make matters worse for Tetalman, Issa currently has over $1,000,000 in the bank after the primary. Tetalman on the other hand has just over $6,000.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:
Darrell Issa
Posted in 49th Congressional District | Tagged: Darrell Issa, Jerry Tetalman | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 12, 2012
After looking at a one of the most competitive seats in California yesterday, we know go back to the boring and obvious. In this case though the boring and obvious looks to be a good thing for Republicans.
Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.
As you can see from the map Republicans not only hold a 17% registration advantage over Democrats, but Democrats are holding just a slim 7% advantage over DTS voters. With DTS voters leaning more conservative in this area it leads to what will likely be one of the slam dunk races in Orange County.
Congressman Dana Rohrabacher has held this seat for a while and has strong name ID especially in Huntington Beach & Costa Mesa which are the 2 largest cities in the district. Ron Varasteh just simply does not have the name ID.
Results in the primary also show that Rohrabacher is in a strong position to win with over 65& of the vote:
United States Representative; District 48
Varasteh ran directly in line with voter registration for his party and with Schlar running as a DTS candidate his votes will likely split between Rohrabacher and Varasteh.
Fundraising also is an advantage for Rohrabacher as when I tried to pull up the financial numbers for Ron Varasteh on the FEC website it informed me that he had no information to report. Rohrabacher reports over $280,000 cash on hand after the primary.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:
Dana Rohrabacher
Posted in 48th Congressional District | Tagged: Dana Rohrabacher, Ron Varasteh | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 11, 2012
This seat is going to be the most competitive in Orange County, even though the largest part of the district is Long Beach. Take a look at the map with statistics:
Thank you to Meridian-Pacific for the use of their maps.
As you can see there is a 10% registration advantage for Democrats. However, DTS voters will lean more conservatively in this race. On top of the DTS voters the Orange County cities have a higher turnout level than the Long Beach portion of the district. In other words you have a very competitive seat on your hands.
The results from the primary election also show that it will be competitive, as Alan Lowenthal (D) ran just slightly ahead of Gary DeLong (R):
United States Representative; District 47
Recently Probolsky research conducted a poll on behalf of the DeLong campaign that showed a good chance of a close race that slightly leans towards DeLong. You can see the memo that went out here. These results show that DeLong is in a slight lead for the seat.
Alan Lowenthal has just under $217,000 after the primary and Gary DeLong has about a $100,000 lead with just under $317,000 after the primary.
This race is extremely close in about every aspect from voter registration, fundraising, and campaigning (so far).
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:
Gary DeLong
Posted in 47th Congressional District | Tagged: Alan Lowenthal, Gary DeLong | 2 Comments »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 11, 2012
This race is the one that Republicans always get excited about with dreams of taking Loretta Sanchez out of office every 2 years. Loretta has never truly had a competitive race for this seat. Lets take a look at results since 1998:
1998- United States Representative; District 46
2000- United States Representative; District 46
2002- United States Representative; District 47
2004- United States Representative; District 47
2006- United States Representative; District 47
2008- United States Representative; District 47
2010- United States Representative; District 47
Van Tran is the one race where you could argue that he got Loretta under 60% and made her have to actually spend resources and run a real campaign. However, having another female Latina on the ballot on Ceci Iglesias likely pulled more votes from Sanchez than Tran.
Looking at the new 46th Congressional District it has become a bit more Republican with the addition of a portion of Orange. Here is the map of the district:
As always thank you to Meridian-Pacific for the use of their maps.
The Democrats currently have a 44%-32% registration advantage over Republicans, but the 19% of DTS voters lean-to the left in this district. Republicans did beat their registration by a substantial margin in the primary if you combine all of their votes:
United States Representative; District 46
Jerry Hayden did not have much competition in the primary, but he is in for what could be considered an uphill battle at best for the general election.
The fundraising in this race says it all. Loretta Sanchez despite being wiped out by Kindee Durkee has already rebuilt her campaign account having over $1,000,000 cash on hand after the primary. Jerry Hayden holds just over $12,000.
The name ID advantage also goes to Loretta Sanchez who is far better known in Santa Ana than Jerry Hayden is. This race is shaping up to be more of the same for Loretta.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:
Loretta Sanchez
Posted in 46th Congressional District | Tagged: Jerry Hayden, Loretta Sanchez | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 11, 2012
This race in the primary pitted Tea Party darling John Webb, sitting U.S. Congressman John Campbell, and Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang for the right to advance to November. The results were extremely one-sided with John Campbell
United States Representative; District 45
As you can see from the results posted to the “Smart Voter” website despite having a Republican opponent Congressman Campbell still managed to break 50% in the primary.
Here is the map of the 45th Congressional District:
As always thanks to Meridian-Pacific for the use of their map.
I will give Sukhee Kang credit for running 5% above Democratic registration. However, with 22% of voters registered as DTS Kang did not have a great showing in the whole scheme of things. Also remember that Democrats tried the Irvine Councilmember strategy back in 2010 running Beth Krom against John Campbell. Krom did not have a great showing either:
United States Representative; District 48
Kang is from Irvine, the largest city in the 45th Congressional District but unfortunately for him John Campbell also is from Irvine.
With a 20% Asian population in CD 45 you could make the argument that Kang will be one of the more competitive candidates in years. I would argue that party affiliation is more important when running for partisan office.
The fundraising tells a similar story with John Campbell at over $1,000,000 cash on hand after the primary election and Sukhee Kang having under $250,000 cash on hand. This is over a 4:1 ratio for the sitting Congressman.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:
John Campbell
Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: John Campbell, John Webb, Sukhee Kang | Leave a Comment »