OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Archive for September, 2012

Lincoln Club Makes Endorsements

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 14, 2012

This came across the wire from the Lincoln Club of Orange County:

Local Elections / Endorsements Ad Hoc Committee’s

SUMMARY OF CANDIDATE ENDORSEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS for Nov. 2012

Read the rest of this entry »

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2012 General Election Predictions: 37th Senate District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 13, 2012

When the argument was made that the Senate seats were going to become more moderate in California I figured Orange County likely wouldn’t be affected. It appears that I was right and the 37th Senate District is a great example of that:

Republican voter registration is 16% higher than that of the Democrats. Much like some of the other districts in Orange County this season the DTS voter registration is just 6% behind the registration of Democrats.

Walters was in a head to head race with Steve Young in the primary election, so we got a preview of this race in what could be best considered a glorified poll:

State Senator; District 37

  • Mimi Walters, Republican ………. 88,321 votes 63.6%
  • Steve Young, Democratic ………. 50,562 votes 36.4%

These results show me that Steve Young is not going to be able to be competitive in November. It doesn’t help that he is a perennial candidate for office. Having lost twice previously to Congressman John Campbell in 2008 and 2006.

The fundraising numbers are also indicative of what to expect in November. Walter currently has just under $265,000 in her campaign account after the primary election. Young on the other hand has just over $15,000.

After a couple of my earlier posts handicapping races I got some e-mails arguing that the campaign being run can make a difference. My take on this specific race is that the OC GOP is far superior to the DPOC in terms of getting organized and turning out voters. Young simply does not have the money raised to do it on his own, which is what he would have to do.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Mimi Walters

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2012 General Election Predictions: 29th Senate District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 13, 2012

(Sorry Greg but you are not going to like my prediction here. Feel free to chime in with your own take if you like.)

The 29th Senate District is the seat currently held by Bob Huff who is just finishing up his first term in the Senate:

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

The registration advantage for Republicans over Democrats is just 5% but 22% of voters are DTS and in this district those DTS voters lean-to the right. The party line vote held pretty steady for Huff in the primary:

State Senator; District 29

  • Robert “Bob” Huff, Republican ………. 68,708 votes 64.3%
  • Greg Diamond, Democratic ………. 38,169 votes 35.7%

Diamond finished 1.5% above Democratic registration in the district. Understandably turnout for Democrats will be slightly increased in the general election but it just won’t be enough to get Huff under 60%. I am actually a bit disappointed though because I would like to see Huff challenged a bit stronger not because I want to see him lose but because he has been on the wrong side of issues like redevelopment agencies among other things.

It won’t be a challenge to get his message out their either because Huff currently has just over $400,000 cash on hand for this race. Diamond on the other hand has not raised enough to trigger electronic filing on the Secretary of State website.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Bob Huff

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Galloway Was For “Tax Giveaways” Before She Was Against Them

Posted by HBK on September 13, 2012

As others here have noted, Anaheim politics nowadays makes for strange bedfellows and alliances.

Anaheim Councilwoman Lorri Galloway has been the toughest critic of the city’s deal with the GardenWalk project, under which Anaheim rebates 80% of the hotel project’s transient occupancy tax revenue back to the two hotels for 15 years.  This is larger than the 50-50 TOT splits the city has done in the past with resort district hotels.

Galloway has denounced the GardenWalk deal as a “tax giveaway” and declares this is not “a good time to give $158 million of taxpayer money away to one developer.”

A few years ago, she thought it was a good idea to give tax money to a developer, far in excess of normal standards. This excerpt from a October 2008 post on a now-dormant blog called “No On Galloway” explains how when it came to an Anaheim affordable housing project called the Elm Street Commons, a different view of developer subsidies prevailed:

“It seems the funding on this project got a little creative. On November 28, 2006, SADI, the developer for Elm Street Commons, came to City Council to have their standard DDA approved through the Housing Authority. Standard practice in Anaheim is to give the developer money, to be paid back over time, 85% to the City, and the developer keep 15% as profit. The 85% is then recycled into more housing projects, which keeps Anaheim building apartments for the working poor. Whether you agree with building subsidized housing or not, it is an efficient system. In the development of the Elm Street Commons, the City offered many millions of dollars in direct funding, plus incentives added later such as a sewer project the developer decided the City should do. Rather than approve the otherwise ordinary deal, now-convicted-felon Richard Chavez pulled the development from the Consent Calendar, allowing discussion. In the end, the City Council, led by Chavez and backed by Lorri Galloway, changed the condition of the agreement, bumping the developer’s profit from the standard 15% to a whopping and unprecedented 50% profit for a private corporation!!”

Increasing the traditional 50-50 TOT split to 80-20 for one developer is a “tax giveaway.” But increasing the city-funded profit margin from 15% to 50% for another developer is legitimate?

The post continues:

“Why would Lorri Galloway take money from the very people she claims to champion? Perhaps the answer is in her Council statement, as she looked at the developer and admonished him, “I hope you acknowledge how much Council has been supportive of you.”

“Well the developers at Elm Street Commons sure did remember to acknowledge that 35% jump in their profits, funded by robbing Anaheim’s working poor. Again funneling money through PAC filings with Treasurer Kinde Durkee, who is frequently under investigation by the FPPC, a donation of $15,000 was made by Elm Street, which funded the Clear Channel billboards Lorri has all over the City. They also underwrote a large mailing, and the graphic arts for the mail piece.”

Food for thought.

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2012 General Election Predictions: 49th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 12, 2012

This is the last in my handicapping series for Congressional races as it is the last race in Orange County having the City of Dana Point within its boundaries along with Las Flores and Ladera Ranch:

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for the map.

Much like the 48th Congressional District this seat has a 15% Republican registration advantage and DTS voters only trail Democrats by 6% in registration. On top of this DTS voters are more conservative in this area.

Darrell Issa who currently holds the seat has great name I in San Diego which holds the majority of the district. The results in the primary are not a huge surprise:

United States Representative; District 49

  • Darrell Issa, Republican ………. 71,329 votes 61.1%
  • Jerry Tetalman, Democratic ………. 35,816 votes 30.7%
  • Dick Eiden ………. 7,988 votes 6.8%
  • Albin Novinec ………. 1,626 votes 1.4%

Tetalman ran 1 point ahead of Democratic registration but that is an indicator that Issa will gain a similar amount of the votes that went to the 2 DTS candidates. Even if Tetalman were to get all of the votes from Dick Eiden and Albin Novinec it would not matter.

To make matters worse for Tetalman, Issa currently has over $1,000,000 in the bank after the primary. Tetalman on the other hand has just over $6,000.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Darrell Issa

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2012 General Election Predictions: 48th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 12, 2012

After looking at a one of the most competitive seats in California yesterday, we know go back to the boring and obvious. In this case though the boring and obvious looks to be a good thing for Republicans.

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

As you can see from the map Republicans not only hold a 17% registration advantage over Democrats, but Democrats are holding just a slim 7% advantage over DTS voters. With DTS voters leaning more conservative in this area it leads to what will likely be one of the slam dunk races in Orange County.

Congressman Dana Rohrabacher has held this seat for a while and has strong name ID especially in Huntington Beach & Costa Mesa which are the 2 largest cities in the district. Ron Varasteh just simply does not have the name ID.

Results in the primary also show that Rohrabacher is in a strong position to win with over 65& of the vote:

United States Representative; District 48

  • Dana Rohrabacher, Republican ………. 73,302 votes 66.3%
  • Ron Varasteh, Democratic ………. 31,912 votes 28.9%
  • Alan Schlar ………. 5,355 votes 4.8%

Varasteh ran directly in line with voter registration for his party and with Schlar running as a DTS candidate his votes will likely split between Rohrabacher and Varasteh.

Fundraising also is an advantage for Rohrabacher as when I tried to pull up the financial numbers for Ron Varasteh on the FEC website it informed me that he had no information to report. Rohrabacher reports over $280,000 cash on hand after the primary.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Dana Rohrabacher

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2012 General Election Predictions: 47th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 11, 2012

This seat is going to be the most competitive in Orange County, even though the largest part of the district is Long Beach. Take a look at the map with statistics:

Thank you to Meridian-Pacific for the use of their maps.

As you can see there is a 10% registration advantage for Democrats. However, DTS voters will lean more conservatively in this race. On top of the DTS voters the Orange County cities have a higher turnout level than the Long Beach portion of the district. In other words you have a very competitive seat on your hands.

The results from the primary election also show that it will be competitive, as Alan Lowenthal (D) ran  just slightly ahead of Gary DeLong (R):

United States Representative; District 47

  • Alan Lowenthal, Democratic ………. 27,356 votes 33.8%
  • Gary Delong, Republican ………. 23,831 votes 29.4%
  • Steven T. Kuykendall, Republican ………. 8,769 votes 10.8%
  • Peter Mathews, Democratic ………. 7,951 votes 9.8%
  • Steve Foley, Republican ………. 5,848 votes 7.2%
  • Sanford W. Kahn, Republican ………. 2,563 votes 3.2%
  • Usha Shah, Democratic ………. 2,350 votes 2.9%
  • Jay Shah, Democratic ………. 2,273 votes 2.8%

Recently Probolsky research conducted a poll on behalf of the DeLong campaign that showed a good chance of a close race that slightly leans towards DeLong. You can see the memo that went out here. These results show that DeLong is in a slight lead for the seat.

Alan Lowenthal has just under $217,000 after the primary and Gary DeLong has about a $100,000 lead with just under $317,000 after the primary.

This race is extremely close in about every aspect from voter registration, fundraising, and campaigning (so far).

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Gary DeLong

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2012 General Election Prediction: 46th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 11, 2012

This race is the one that Republicans always get excited about with dreams of taking Loretta Sanchez out of office every 2 years. Loretta has never truly had a competitive race for this seat. Lets take a look at results since 1998:

1998- United States Representative; District 46

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 47,964 votes 56.5%
  • Robert Kenneth “Bob” Dornan, Republican ………. 33,388 votes 39.3%
  • Thomas E. Reimer, Libertarian ………. 2,316 votes 2.7%
  • Larry G. Engwall, Natural Law ………. 1,334 votes 1.5%

2000- United States Representative; District 46

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 70,381 votes 60.3%
  • Gloria Matta Tuchman, Republican ………. 40,928 votes 35%
  • Richard B. Boddie, Libertarian ………. 3,159 votes 2.7%
  • Larry Engwall, Natural Law ………. 2,440 votes 2%

2002- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 41,282 votes 60.9%
  • Jeff Chavez, Republican ………. 23,662 votes 34.9%
  • Paul Marsden, Libertarian ………. 2,871 votes 4.2%
  • Kenneth M. Valenzuela Fisher (Write-in)
  • Michael J. Monge (Write-in)

2004- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 65,684 votes 60.4%
  • Alexandria A. “Alex” Coronado, Republican ………. 43,099 votes 39.6%

2006- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 42,822 votes 61.8%
  • Tan Nguyen, Republican ………. 26,507 votes 38.2%

2008- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 85,706 votes 69.5%
  • Rosemarie Avila, Republican ………. 31,397 votes 25.5%
  • Robert Lauten, American Independent ………. 6,265 votes 5.0%

2010- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 50,832 votes 53.0%
  • Van Tran, Republican ………. 37,679 votes 39.3%
  • Cecilia Iglesias, Independent ………. 7,443 votes 7.7%

Van Tran is the one race where you could argue that he got Loretta under 60% and made her have to actually spend resources and run a real campaign. However, having another female Latina on the ballot on Ceci Iglesias likely pulled more votes from Sanchez than Tran.

Looking at the new 46th Congressional District it has become a bit more Republican with the addition of a portion of Orange. Here is the map of the district:

As always thank you to Meridian-Pacific for the use of their maps.

The Democrats currently have a 44%-32% registration advantage over Republicans, but the 19% of DTS voters lean-to the left in this district. Republicans did beat their registration by a substantial margin in the primary if you combine all of their votes:

United States Representative; District 46

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 25,706 votes 52.1%
  • Jerry Hayden, Republican ………. 14,571 votes 29.5%
  • John J. Cullum, Republican ………. 5,251 votes 10.6%
  • Jorge Rocha ………. 1,969 votes 4.0%
  • Pat Garcia, Republican ………. 1,852 votes 3.8%

Jerry Hayden did not have much competition in the primary, but he is in for what could be considered an uphill battle at best for the general election.

The fundraising in this race says it all. Loretta Sanchez despite being wiped out by Kindee Durkee has already rebuilt her campaign account having over $1,000,000 cash on hand after the primary. Jerry Hayden holds just over $12,000.

The name ID advantage also goes to Loretta Sanchez who is far better known in Santa Ana than Jerry Hayden is. This race is shaping up to be more of the same for Loretta.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Loretta Sanchez

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2012 General Election Prediction: 45th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 11, 2012

This race in the primary pitted Tea Party darling John Webb, sitting U.S. Congressman John Campbell, and Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang for the right to advance to November. The results were extremely one-sided with John Campbell

United States Representative; District 45

  • John Campbell, Republican ………. 54,346 votes 51.0%
  • Sukhee Kang, Democratic ………. 35,182 votes 33.0%
  • John Webb, Republican ………. 17,014 votes 16.0%

As you can see from the results posted to the “Smart Voter” website despite having a Republican opponent Congressman Campbell still managed to break 50% in the primary.

Here is the map of the 45th Congressional District:

As always thanks to Meridian-Pacific for the use of their map.

I will give Sukhee Kang credit for running 5% above Democratic registration. However, with 22% of voters registered as DTS Kang did not have a great showing in the whole scheme of things. Also remember that Democrats tried the Irvine Councilmember strategy back in 2010 running Beth Krom against John Campbell. Krom did not have a great showing either:

United States Representative; District 48

  • John Campbell, Republican ………. 145,481 votes 60.0%
  • Beth Krom, Democratic ………. 88,465 votes 36.4%
  • Mike Binkley, Libertarian ………. 8,773 votes 3.6%

Kang is from Irvine, the largest city in the 45th Congressional District but unfortunately for him John Campbell also is from Irvine.

With a 20% Asian population in CD 45 you could make the argument that Kang will be one of the more competitive candidates in years. I would argue that party affiliation is more important when running for partisan office.

The fundraising tells a similar story with John Campbell at over $1,000,000 cash on hand after the primary election and Sukhee Kang having under $250,000 cash on hand. This is over a 4:1 ratio for the sitting Congressman.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

John Campbell

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Bush Address on September 11 Attacks; Obama Address on Navy SEAL Operation Killing Bin Laden

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on September 11, 2012

President George W. Bush addressed the nation on Tuesday, September 11, 2011:

Good evening. Today, our fellow citizens, our way of life, our very freedom came under attack in a series of deliberate and deadly terrorist acts. The victims were in airplanes, or in their offices; secretaries, businessmen and women, military and federal workers; moms and dads, friends and neighbors. Thousands of lives were suddenly ended by evil, despicable acts of terror.

The pictures of airplanes flying into buildings, fires burning, huge structures collapsing, have filled us with disbelief, terrible sadness, and a quiet, unyielding anger. These acts of mass murder were intended to frighten our nation into chaos and retreat. But they have failed; our country is strong.

A great people has been moved to defend a great nation. Terrorist attacks can shake the foundations of our biggest buildings, but they cannot touch the foundation of America. These acts shattered steel, but they cannot dent the steel of American resolve.

America was targeted for attack because we’re the brightest beacon for freedom and opportunity in the world. And no one will keep that light from shining.

Today, our nation saw evil, the very worst of human nature. And we responded with the best of America — with the daring of our rescue workers, with the caring for strangers and neighbors who came to give blood and help in any way they could.

Immediately following the first attack, I implemented our government’s emergency response plans. Our military is powerful, and it’s prepared. Our emergency teams are working in New York City and Washington, D.C. to help with local rescue efforts.

Our first priority is to get help to those who have been injured, and to take every precaution to protect our citizens at home and around the world from further attacks.

The functions of our government continue without interruption. Federal agencies in Washington which had to be evacuated today are reopening for essential personnel tonight, and will be open for business tomorrow. Our financial institutions remain strong, and the American economy will be open for business, as well.

The search is underway for those who are behind these evil acts. I’ve directed the full resources of our intelligence and law enforcement communities to find those responsible and to bring them to justice. We will make no distinction between the terrorists who committed these acts and those who harbor them.

I appreciate so very much the members of Congress who have joined me in strongly condemning these attacks. And on behalf of the American people, I thank the many world leaders who have called to offer their condolences and assistance.

America and our friends and allies join with all those who want peace and security in the world, and we stand together to win the war against terrorism. Tonight, I ask for your prayers for all those who grieve, for the children whose worlds have been shattered, for all whose sense of safety and security has been threatened. And I pray they will be comforted by a power greater than any of us, spoken through the ages in Psalm 23: “Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I fear no evil, for You are with me.”

This is a day when all Americans from every walk of life unite in our resolve for justice and peace. America has stood down enemies before, and we will do so this time. None of us will ever forget this day. Yet, we go forward to defend freedom and all that is good and just in our world.

Thank you. Good night, and God bless America.

President Barack Obama addressed the nation on Sunday, May 1, 2011:

Good evening.  Tonight, I can report to the American people and to the world that the United States has conducted an operation that killed Osama bin Laden, the leader of al Qaeda, and a terrorist who’s responsible for the murder of thousands of innocent men, women, and children.

It was nearly 10 years ago that a bright September day was darkened by the worst attack on the American people in our history.  The images of 9/11 are seared into our national memory — hijacked planes cutting through a cloudless September sky; the Twin Towers collapsing to the ground; black smoke billowing up from the Pentagon; the wreckage of Flight 93 in Shanksville, Pennsylvania, where the actions of heroic citizens saved even more heartbreak and destruction.

And yet we know that the worst images are those that were unseen to the world.  The empty seat at the dinner table.  Children who were forced to grow up without their mother or their father.  Parents who would never know the feeling of their child’s embrace.  Nearly 3,000 citizens taken from us, leaving a gaping hole in our hearts.

On September 11, 2001, in our time of grief, the American people came together.  We offered our neighbors a hand, and we offered the wounded our blood.  We reaffirmed our ties to each other, and our love of community and country.  On that day, no matter where we came from, what God we prayed to, or what race or ethnicity we were, we were united as one American family.

We were also united in our resolve to protect our nation and to bring those who committed this vicious attack to justice.  We quickly learned that the 9/11 attacks were carried out by al Qaeda — an organization headed by Osama bin Laden, which had openly declared war on the United States and was committed to killing innocents in our country and around the globe.  And so we went to war against al Qaeda to protect our citizens, our friends, and our allies.

Over the last 10 years, thanks to the tireless and heroic work of our military and our counterterrorism professionals, we’ve made great strides in that effort.  We’ve disrupted terrorist attacks and strengthened our homeland defense.  In Afghanistan, we removed the Taliban government, which had given bin Laden and al Qaeda safe haven and support.  And around the globe, we worked with our friends and allies to capture or kill scores of al Qaeda terrorists, including several who were a part of the 9/11 plot.

Yet Osama bin Laden avoided capture and escaped across the Afghan border into Pakistan.  Meanwhile, al Qaeda continued to operate from along that border and operate through its affiliates across the world.

And so shortly after taking office, I directed Leon Panetta, the director of the CIA, to make the killing or capture of bin Laden the top priority of our war against al Qaeda, even as we continued our broader efforts to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat his network.

Then, last August, after years of painstaking work by our intelligence community, I was briefed on a possible lead to bin Laden.  It was far from certain, and it took many months to run this thread to ground.  I met repeatedly with my national security team as we developed more information about the possibility that we had located bin Laden hiding within a compound deep inside of Pakistan.  And finally, last week, I determined that we had enough intelligence to take action, and authorized an operation to get Osama bin Laden and bring him to justice.

Today, at my direction, the United States launched a targeted operation against that compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan.  A small team of Americans carried out the operation with extraordinary courage and capability.  No Americans were harmed.  They took care to avoid civilian casualties.  After a firefight, they killed Osama bin Laden and took custody of his body.

For over two decades, bin Laden has been al Qaeda’s leader and symbol, and has continued to plot attacks against our country and our friends and allies.  The death of bin Laden marks the most significant achievement to date in our nation’s effort to defeat al Qaeda.

Yet his death does not mark the end of our effort.  There’s no doubt that al Qaeda will continue to pursue attacks against us.  We must –- and we will — remain vigilant at home and abroad.

As we do, we must also reaffirm that the United States is not –- and never will be -– at war with Islam.  I’ve made clear, just as President Bush did shortly after 9/11, that our war is not against Islam.  Bin Laden was not a Muslim leader; he was a mass murderer of Muslims.  Indeed, al Qaeda has slaughtered scores of Muslims in many countries, including our own.  So his demise should be welcomed by all who believe in peace and human dignity.

Over the years, I’ve repeatedly made clear that we would take action within Pakistan if we knew where bin Laden was.  That is what we’ve done.  But it’s important to note that our counterterrorism cooperation with Pakistan helped lead us to bin Laden and the compound where he was hiding.  Indeed, bin Laden had declared war against Pakistan as well, and ordered attacks against the Pakistani people.

Tonight, I called President Zardari, and my team has also spoken with their Pakistani counterparts.  They agree that this is a good and historic day for both of our nations.  And going forward, it is essential that Pakistan continue to join us in the fight against al Qaeda and its affiliates.

The American people did not choose this fight.  It came to our shores, and started with the senseless slaughter of our citizens.  After nearly 10 years of service, struggle, and sacrifice, we know well the costs of war.  These efforts weigh on me every time I, as Commander-in-Chief, have to sign a letter to a family that has lost a loved one, or look into the eyes of a service member who’s been gravely wounded.

So Americans understand the costs of war.  Yet as a country, we will never tolerate our security being threatened, nor stand idly by when our people have been killed.  We will be relentless in defense of our citizens and our friends and allies.  We will be true to the values that make us who we are. And on nights like this one, we can say to those families who have lost loved ones to al Qaeda’s terror:  Justice has been done.

Tonight, we give thanks to the countless intelligence and counterterrorism professionals who’ve worked tirelessly to achieve this outcome.  The American people do not see their work, nor know their names.  But tonight, they feel the satisfaction of their work and the result of their pursuit of justice.

We give thanks for the men who carried out this operation, for they exemplify the professionalism, patriotism, and unparalleled courage of those who serve our country.  And they are part of a generation that has borne the heaviest share of the burden since that September day.

Finally, let me say to the families who lost loved ones on 9/11 that we have never forgotten your loss, nor wavered in our commitment to see that we do whatever it takes to prevent another attack on our shores.

And tonight, let us think back to the sense of unity that prevailed on 9/11.  I know that it has, at times, frayed.  Yet today’s achievement is a testament to the greatness of our country and the determination of the American people.

The cause of securing our country is not complete.  But tonight, we are once again reminded that America can do whatever we set our mind to.  That is the story of our history, whether it’s the pursuit of prosperity for our people, or the struggle for equality for all our citizens; our commitment to stand up for our values abroad, and our sacrifices to make the world a safer place.

Let us remember that we can do these things not just because of wealth or power, but because of who we are:  one nation, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.

Thank you.  May God bless you.  And may God bless the United States of America.

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