OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Archive for April, 2012

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Republican Candidates Out Walking Tomorrow!

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 20, 2012

In a huge sign of campaign momentum Todd Spitzer candidate for 3rd District Supervisor and Robert Hammond candidate for County Board of Education are participating in what is set to be a big precinct walk in Tustin tomorrow. (Full disclosure: Custom Campaigns is the consultant running the Hammond race and Todd Spitzer is an advertiser on this blog).

Volunteers will meet at 9:00 AM at the Starbucks located at 552 East First Street in Tustin, CA 92780. This is in the Vons shopping center near the corner of 1st and Newport.

It is always a major sign of momentum to get a large group of people out walking to support candidates running for offices, especially non-partisan ones. With tomorrow scheduled to be  beautiful day according to weather reports this should be a great event.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Blogger Disclosures Open Up A Huge Can Of Worms

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 20, 2012

H/T to Total Buzz for posting on their blog the story on California potentially forcing bloggers to reveal if they have received payments from political campaigns.

I am sure that this will open me up for attack in the comment section, but I feel the need to take a stance against the idea of blogger payment disclosure (full disclosure I am a blogger). “OC Political” does receive money from advertisers or in the case of a client that has retained us as consultants we will provide an advertisement as part of the contract. We do not attempt to hide our advertisers our clients (simply look to your left). The real problem here is the bigger issue of California and the amount of overregulation they impose.

We openly disclose who our consulting clients are when writing posts that may impact them or potential opponents that they may face in an election. The reason we do this is to maintain our credibility as a blog and to ensure that our readers are aware of any potential bias that we may have.

However, having California regulate blogger payments is simply an overburdensome regulation. We already are supposed to be tracking this in the form 460’s filled out by all candidates that disclose who they received campaign contributions from and what they spent campaign money on as well.

FlashReport author Jon Fleischman sums the problem up best in his quote to the Orange County Register blog:

How would the Fair Political Practices Commission handle anonymous blogs? Would advertising revenue fall under the regulated payments? How would the commission educate amateur bloggers?

As stated before, we here at “OC Political” believe in disclosing our financial interests in campaigns, but only for the purpose of maintaining our credibility. Other blogs can do whatever they want in terms of disclosure, but should they choose not to disclose a financial gain from supporting a candidate or opposing a candidate the end result should simply be a loss of credibility not an FPPC fine.

With much bigger issues at play in California than blogging I think this is simply another smoke screen to distract away from the real budgetary problems that California faces.

Posted in California, Uncategorized | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Seattle Pursues Anaheim City School District Superintendent José Banda

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 20, 2012

Jose Banda

Anaheim City School District Superintendent José Banda

The Seattle Times contacted OC Political informing us that Anaheim City School District Superintendent José Banda is one of three finalists for Superintendent of Seattle Public Schools.  (It does appear that OC Political is the first California-based source other than ACSD with this news.)

On Monday, Banda will tour three schools in the 48,000-student Seattle Public Schools system, meet with the Seattle School Board, and interview with a focus group.  On Tuesday, Banda will meet the Seattle news media at a press conference.

Another finalist, San Ramon Valley Unified School District Superintendent Steven Enoch will do the tour, meeting, and interview on Tuesday, with the press conference on Wednesday.  The third finalist, Salem-Keizer Public Schools Superintendent Sandra Husk, will do the tour, meeting, and interview on Wednesday, with the press conference on Thursday.

The Seattle School Board plans to announce in early May who they’ve selected as Superintendent.  The new Seattle Superintendent would then start on July 1.

Banda has been the Superintendent of ACSD since July 2008 when eight-year Superintendent Sandra Barry retired to donate one of her kidneys to her son.  Banda was the Deputy Superintendent of the Oceanside Unified School District from 2005-2008 and the Superintendent of the Planada Elementary School District in Merced County from 2002-2005.  He also served on the school board of the Salida Union School District in the 1990s.

Here’s an excerpt from the Seattle Times article:

Of the finalists, Banda comes from a district most unlike Seattle.

The Anaheim City School District is an elementary-school-only district of about 20,000 students. It’s an inner-city district, with students whose parents typically work at Disneyland or the hotels that surround the amusement park.

Eighty-six percent of the students are Latino, and about 60 percent are classified as English Language Learners. “It’s a pretty big challenge here,” said Peter Daniels, a district spokesman.

Student achievement has improved there during Banda’s four-year tenure: The district’s Academic Performance Index, a statewide measure of student achievement, has risen significantly under Banda, and several schools have surpassed the state’s benchmark score.

“We could all make excuses for why our students don’t achieve: They come from poverty; there’s not a sufficient grasp of the English language,” Banda said in an interview. But instead, he said, he instilled in staff members the idea that every student has potential.

Banda is a fluent Spanish speaker, the son of migrant workers. He touts his community involvement and serves on several local boards.

He is proud of shepherding through a $169 million construction measure in 2010 that addressed overcrowding, a problem that has plagued the district for years.

Banda has spent 30 years in the field of education, including as a high-school principal. Before Anaheim, he was superintendent of the Planada School District and deputy superintendent at Oceanside Unified School District, both in California.

In a statement posted on the Anaheim City School District web site yesterday, Banda stated:

Dear Anaheim City School District Friends:

I’m writing to inform you of an important development as I have been selected as one of three finalists for the superintendency of Seattle Public Schools.  As a finalist, I will be in Seattle during the week of April 23 to meet with the School Board and the 25-member Community Focus Group, as well as tour several Seattle schools.

Seattle Public Schools distributed a press release on April 19 to the major media outlets in the Pacific Northwest region.  I have been told that board members, principals, staff, parents and community leaders may receive a call from reporters.  I felt it was important to share this news with you prior to the anticipated media coverage.  Our Communications office is also anticipating local media coverage from the OC Register and community papers.

I wanted to personally share this with you because of the relationships we have built over the past four years.  It is important to me to maintain the trust and support of our entire school community.  I am proud of the work occurring here in Anaheim and credit my success in this highly-competitive search to what we have accomplished together here in the District.

Please know that I am honored to serve as Superintendent of Anaheim City School District.  When I was presented with this possibility, I felt it was a professional and personal growth opportunity that I needed to pursue.  I will continue to update you on the outcome of the selection process and look forward to our continued partnership to benefit the students of Anaheim.

José Banda, Superintendent

Here’s the press release from Seattle Public Schools: Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Anaheim City School District | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Third Supervisorial District: Todd Spitzer in the Mail

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 20, 2012

Excluding the Anaheim TOT mail (which has nothing to do with the June election), I received my second mailer of the primary election cycle yesterday.  The first mailer was from Congressman Ed Royce on April 4.  This one is from Todd Spitzer’s campaign for the Third Supervisorial District.

The exterior portion of the piece emphasizes Spitzer’s endorsements from various elected officials, particularly that of incumbent Third District Supervisor Bill Campbell.  The interior portion emphasizes his previous job experience and has a “Growing Orange County’s Economy” section and a “Standing Up for Taxpayers” section.

The piece is 8.5″ x 11″ and becomes 8.5″ x 22″ when opened up.  (Sorry about the split down the middle of the interior.  My scanner was having trouble due to the large size of the Spitzer mailer.)

2012-04-19 Todd Spitzer Mailer

Click on the picture to view a larger version.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, Mail | Tagged: , , | 3 Comments »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Fullerton Recall

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 19, 2012

Now to one of the more controversial items on the ballot for this June in the Fullerton recall election. This race has been extremely vicious by both camps, and a lot is at stake with the Council majority up for grabs.

This race unlike other in this election is for 6 different things:

3 recalls

3 races to replace the recalled Councilmember (If recall passes)

The 3 Councilmembers up for recall include Don Bankead, Dick Jones, and Pat McKinley. Much question exists as to the real reason for the recall.

One side claims that the recall is because the Council has done a horrible job over the Kelly Thomas killing incident among other failures such as an alleged illegal water tax. The other side claims that Tony Bushala is simply trying to undo the results of the 2010 election and gain control of the Fullerton City Council.

The major factor at play here is that recalls once on the ballot never fail. This my prediction on the recall side of these races is:

All 3 Councilmembers Ousted

Unlike my other predictions the post does not stop with just that. A replacement must be made for each of the recalled Councilmembers.

The candidates running for the Don Bankhead seat include:

Rick Alvarez a Businessowner/Planning Commissioner who is a Republican. His appointment to the commission was actually by Don Bankhead.

Jane Rands a Systems Engineer and Green Party activist. She has run for quite a few offices in this area which will give her some name ID.

Greg Sebourn a Businessman/Educator and candidate for the Fullerton City Council in 2010. He is a Republican and the one mostly closely in line with the pro-recall folks.

Paula Williams a Public Employee and the only Democrat on the ballot for this seat.

The recall will pass but the elections for a replacement will likely come down to name ID and ballot designation. Greg Sebourn and Jane Rands will split the vote based on highest name ID leaving this seat to the candidate with the best ballot designation.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Rick Alvarez

The candidates running for the Dick Jones seat include:

Dorothy A. Birsic a Republican running with no ballot designation.

Glenn P. Georgieff an IT Specialist anda former Fullerton Library Trustee. He is a registered Democrat.

Matthew Hakim a Musician/Artist and registered Democrat.

Travis Kiger a Fullerton Planning Commissioner and the most closely in line with the pro-recall folks. He is a registered Republican.

Roberta J. Reid a student that is a DTS voter.

Once again this will likely come down to name ID and ballot designation. Travis Kiger has the best ballot designation out of all candidates in any of the 3 seats and he also has the highest name ID and the most comprehensive campaign being run. Nobody else has been actively in the mail, walking precincts, or putting up signs.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Travis Kiger

The candidates running for the Pat McKinley seat include:

Doug Chafee a Business Attorney and 2010 candidate for City Council. He is a registered Democrat and also a Fullerton Planning Commissioner.

Barry Levinson an Auditor/Parks Commissioner who is probably one of the most passionate people about local issues that I have ever seen. He is a registered Republican.

Sean Paden a Construction Attorney and a registered Republican.

Matthew Rowe an Aerospace Project Manager and a DTS voter.

This will be the closest of all 3 races. Barry Levinson has the best ballot designation in this race, however,  we have already witnessed him and Doug Chafee on the ballot in 2010. Chafee has the highest name ID of any candidate in this race yet he and Sean Paden split votes based on ballot designation.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district and mostly based on 2010 results I believe that the winner will be:

Doug Chafee

Posted in Fullerton | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 40 Comments »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Orange County Board of Education

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 19, 2012

This will be a fairly short post with more of an explanation than an analysis.

2 seats for the Orange Count Board of Education are contested this election. District 1 is an open seat and District 3 has an incumbent with a challenger.

Over the past couple of weeks I have been analysing each race in the June Primary and giving a prediction on these races. I am not going to do that for these races.

Custom Campaigns, the firm that is owned by myself, Chris Nguyen, and Erik Brown (The founders of this blog) is doing the consulting work for Robert Hammond in OCBE 1 and Dr. Ken Williams in OCBE 3. It would be unfair to the opponents in this race for us to analyze and pick at them on our blog. Especially since we have polling data in the Area 1 race it is important for us to focus on doing our job and not playing games on the blog.

I like both Robert Hammond and Dr. Ken Williams and hope that voters feel the same way but the opponents are not bad people and deserve the chance to run their races without having to worry about the opponents consultants bashing them on the blog they run.

My advice to voters is to look at the candidates by reading about them in the voter handbook and seeing what they say about their plans for the district. Take a look at candidate websites as well.

With that being said I am going to have to take a pass on making a prediction in either of these races.

Posted in Orange County Board of Education | 3 Comments »

OC GOP Should Intervene In Anaheim Union High School District Vacancy

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 19, 2012

Chris Nguyen posted about the vacancy on the Anaheim Union High School District Board earlier this week. He gave a great analysis of those who have thrown their hat into the ring for the appointment.

This is a difficult post to write, because I am very torn on the issue of making non-partisan seats partisan. In the case of the Anaheim Union High School District I am forced to take a stance on political intervention because it is a matter of protecting future partisan offices.

In cases where vacancies exist on local elected bodies such as City Council or School District it is most common to see an appointment process to fill the vacancy as opposed to special election. The Anaheim Union High School District has had a history of members running for and sometimes winning higher office:

Tom Daly- This former member of the Anaheim Union High School District went on to become Anaheim Mayor and then became Orange County Clerk Recorder. He is currently running for the 69th Assembly District.

Alexandria Coronado- This former School Board Trustee ended up winning a seat on the Orange County Board of Education and then later on ran against Loretta Sanchez for Congress unsuccessfully. Se got knocked off the County Board of Education this last June by David Boyd.

Thomas “Hoagy” Holguin- He ended up running for the City Council this past November and ended up losing and in the process lost his School Board seat as well.

Jordan Brandman- The next candidate in the cycle is Jordan Brandman who is currently running for the Anaheim City Council in what is sure to be a very interesting election.

With the history of candidates moving on to higher office it is imperative that the OC GOP intervene and make sure that a Republican be appointed to this seat. That may not sit well with a lot of people but from a Republican standpoint it makes sense.

In fact when the OC GOP has their endorsing convention one of the questions that pops up is whether or not the applicant for endorsement has endorsed any Democrats. I argue that voting to appoint a Democrat is far worse than endorsing one because an endorsement still requires the voters to approve of the candidate. An appointment requires between 3-5 votes to effectively elect somebody to the body.

Look at the story told by former CRA President Mike Spence:

He warned people to take on a candidate for Rio Hondo Community College District because she was a big threat to the Republican Party. Nobody really felt that threatened by this candidate during that election to a small College District. The candidate was Hilda Solis who went on to serve in the legislature, Congress, and then was appointed U.S. Secretary of Labor by President Obama.

Some solid Republicans applied for this seat and I hope that the 3 Republicans on the School Board will take this into consideration when filling the vacancy.

Posted in Anaheim Union High School District | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 3rd Supervisorial District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 18, 2012

This race is a bit close to home since I am going to be represented by the winner of this race. Having seen this race up close and personal I hope that I can pull myself out of the echo chamber enough to make a fair analysis here.

I can promise that I will be a lot less biased than HBK and The Rock of OC who have quite frankly abused their blogging privileges a bit.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat is going to potentially get ugly in the media with both candidates appearing to have a bit of disdain for each other.

Both candidates are Republicans in what is considered a very conservative seat. Party affiliation does not matter all that much in this race as no affiliation is listed on the ballot (not that it matters in this race).

The good news is that this race will be over in June, because the Prop 14 rules do not apply to this County race and with only 2 candidates on the ballot one of them is guaranteed to get over 50% of the vote.

Candidates include:

Todd Spitzer the former Supervisor and Assemblyman from Orange. He is extremely popular in Orange especially because of his strong stance on public safety issues. His humongous war chest will make it easy for him to message to voters. On the flip side he made a huge mistake voting for 3% @ 50 which is an outrageous pension liability that has plagued our state.

Deborah Pauly the current Villa Park City Councilwoman who is extremely popular in TEA Party circles. She has not had the same fundraising luck as Todd, but she appears to have a decent number of volunteers working with her. On the flip side for her she made some very disappointing comments at a rally in Yorba Linda that have quite frankly done damage to the Republican Party.

The factors at play- This one is going to unfortunately be very slanted due to fundraising, name ID, campaign experience, and support all lining up behind Todd. Had Mark Bucher jumped into this race it could have been a really big fight (Also a huge waste in Republican resources).

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that winner will be:

Todd Spitzer

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Council Colleague Rush Hill Endorses Leslie Daigle in AD74 Race

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 18, 2012

As a Republican, I am glad to see a Democrat in the AD 74 race for the same reason that I was hoping for no Republican to run in the AD 69 race. This is a post Prop 14 world and we need to realize the way that the game works now.

I have predicted that Robert Rush will defeat Leslie Daigle for the number 2 slot in the AD 74 June election (Read more about this race here).

Leslie Daigle has apparently realized this as well. She issued a press release that could best be described as a shot across the bow to the Robert Rush campaign. See the press release here: Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 74th Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 18, 2012

This race will also be an interesting one, but I will go out on a limb and say that it will be less interesting than people think.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat would normally be considered another Republican stronghold with a 13 point registration advantage but based on the results of the 2008 election I will hold off judgement until after 2012. Democrats have just a 6 point registration gap above DTS voters. In 2008 Democrats did have som major victories in the new AD 74 where Obama won and Proposition 8 failed.

Incumbent Assemblyman Allan Mansoor currently holds this seat and his running for his first re-election. He is backed by the current Republican establishment along with most of the grassroots and volunteer organization. I have met Chad Morgan who is running his race and he is a nice guy.

His challengers include:

Leslie Daigle a Council Member/Businesswoman from Newport Beach who is running as a Republican. My interactions with her have never been pleasant.

Robert Rush a Business Owner/Accountant who is running as a Democrat.

The factors at play- Alan Mansoor has incumbency, name ID, and party affiliation on his side. I don’t buy the argument that his name ID is low in the new parts of the district thus making him vulnerable.

The anti-incumbency vote will be split between Rush and Daigle but Rush has the advantage of being an alternative to a Republican for Democrats and DTS voters.

Daigle has high name ID on Newport Beach, but I just think that most of the obstacles in this race seem to hurt her more than Mansoor or Rush. It appears that Daigle is not trilled with Rush being in this race, stay tuned for a press release from her that I will post in a bit.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Allan Mansoor & Robert Rush

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , | 1 Comment »

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