OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

2012 General Election Predictions: 55th Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 17, 2012

If you are reading this I want to note that I am currently out of the country on vacation to Spain for 2 weeks and have scheduled my prediction posts to go off for this week. So, don’t be offended if I don’t reply to comments you leave behind.

The 55th Assembly District is another hybrid Orange County, Los Angeles County, and San Bernardino County seat represented by my former Assembly Representative Curt Hagman:

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

As you can see Orange County clearly has a majority of this seat. However, both candidates running for this seat are from outside of Orange C0unty. Hagman is from San Bernardino County while Fritchle is from Los Angeles County.

The results from June tell the true story though of what to expect. We had a race where Fritchle did not even finish ahead of his party registration:

Member of the State Assembly; District 55

  • Curt Hagman, Republican ………. 40,268 votes 69.1%
  • Gregg D. Fritchle, Democratic ………. 17,994 votes 30.9%

In case you were wondering Republicans have 41.7% registration, Democrats have 31.6% registration, and DTS have 22.8% registration.

Even if Hagman did no campaigning whatsoever he would still win the race based on this massive victory that he had in June. The campaign finance reports from the Secretary of State office tell us that the money is also one-sided as Hagman had just over $225,000 after the primary and Fritchle did not even raise enough to trigger online filing.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Curt Hagman

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Frank Ury Omitted Several Of His Past Council Votes To Maintain Lifetime Medical Benefits For Council Members When He Appeared Before The Republican Party Endorsement Committee

Posted by Greg Woodard on September 16, 2012

I currently am the only member on the Central Committee from Mission Viejo.  We have four conservatives running for two spots.  Consequently, I’m recommending we vote no endorsement for any candidate, and let the Mission Viejo voters decide in November.

On September 5, 2012, incumbent Frank Ury, and three other conservative candidates for Mission Viejo City Council, went before the GOP Endorsement Committee.  When Ury spoke, he touted his conservative principles and his list of endorsements (see Chris Nguyen’s extensive coverage here: https://ocpolitical.com/2012/09/05/ocgop-endorsements-committee-meets/).  Endorsement Committee member Thomas Gordon asked Ury whether he had voted to bestow lifetime medical benefits on part-time council members.  To his credit, Ury was prepared for the question.  Ury stated that he had voted to rescind lifetime benefits for council members and he produced an affidavit he presented at the July 6, 2010 Council meeting that purported to irrevocably release any lifetime medical benefits he may be entitled to.

After hearing the candidates and their supporters and detractors, the Endorsement Committee voted 4-2 to recommend Ury for endorsement by the full Central Committee.  The Endorsement Committee also voted 4-2 to recommend endorsement for challenger Wendy Bucknum.  Having made two recommendations, the Committee effectively voted against endorsing the other conservative incumbent, Cathy Schlicht.

Ury’s response to Gordon was incomplete.  Ury gave the impression that he never had voted for lifetime medical benefits for part-time council members.  In doing so, Ury left out several key votes he made that allowed such benefits.  Here is a brief rundown of those votes:

In 2000, a prior City Council voted to provide lifetime medical benefits for city employees and their spouses who had 12 years of continuous service with the city (we can debate the wisdom of that boondoggle at a different time).  Subsequently, the issue was raised as to whether or not this policy would apply to council members.  On May 19, 2008, six months before he was up for re-election to the Council, Ury proposed a resolution to eliminate lifetime medical benefits for council members.  The measure passed 5-0.

On November 17, 2008, the first Council meeting after Ury was re-elected to a second 4 year term, Ury made a motion to adopt a resolution that would re-instate lifetime medical benefits for council members and give them the option of declining the benefits.  The measure passed 3-1 with Ury voting to re-instate lifetime medical benefits.

On June 21, 2010, Councilmember Cathy Schlicht proposed eliminating lifetime medical benefits for current and future council members.  The proposal failed 2-3 with Ury voting against it, keeping lifetime medical benefits in place.

On July 6, 2010, Schlicht again proposed eliminating lifetime medical benefits.  This time, the measure passed 4-1, with only Ury voting against.  Ury had earlier attempted to get a vote to lay the item on the table (for those parliamentary procedure fans like Kermit Marsh, that means Ury tried to avoid voting on Schlicht’s motion), but it failed.

It was at that same July 6, 2010 meeting that Ury presented his affidavit, including a memo that stated, “When I first brought this up over two years ago, and even as recently as a few months ago, the Council taking action to revoke this benefit was criticized under the argument that the Council could change its action in the future.  Therefore, executing this irrevocable release is the best and proper way to ensure that any claims to this benefit are severed. I have executed the documents and have therefore revoked this benefit. This has been delivered to the City Attorney and is on file with the City.”

I would note that Councilmember Trish Kelley also submitted an affidavit purporting to irrevocably release any lifetime medical benefits she may be entitled to at the July 6, 2010 Council meeting.  However, she also voted in favor of Schlicht’s motion to eliminate lifetime medical benefits, while Ury opposed it.

The Endorsement Committee’s recommendations for Ury and Bucknum should be heard by the full Central Committee at its meeting tomorrow night.  No candidate, however conservative, is perfect, and while Republicans often agree on a majority of issues, there will always be disagreement between us.  I have supported Ury’s positions on several occasions (particularly in opposing the anti-property rights Measure D that was defeated in 2010.)  However, for me personally, public pension and benefits are out of control, and I cannot agree with any vote to give lifetime benefits for part-time council members, regardless of the reason.  Ury voted to re-instate lifetime benefits for council members, and twice voted against removing those benefits.  Accordingly, I urge the full Central Committee to take a neutral stance at tomorrow night’s meeting and not endorse any candidate for Mission Viejo City Council.

Posted in Mission Viejo | Tagged: , , , , , | 6 Comments »

#21 Stanford defeats #2 USC 21-14

Posted by Chris Nguyen on September 15, 2012

This is not a political post, but Emami urged me to do it anyway.

Stanford is now 5-1 against USC over the last six years in football, including going 4-0 against Mater Dei alum Matt Barkley.

That is all.

Posted in California | 2 Comments »

Allow me to introduce myself

Posted by Greg Woodard on September 15, 2012

I wanted to thank the Chrises (or is it Chrisses – no that sounds too weird), for allowing me to offer my two cents on Orange County politics from time to time on here.  My name is Greg Woodard and I am a conservative Republican.  When my brother was in the Marines, he used to say his loyalties went God, Corps (not corpse, Mr. President), and Country.  For me, it’s God, Family, and Country.  I believe that Jesus Christ is my Savior, I love my wife and kids, and I bleed red, white, and blue.  I have had the pleasure of serving on the Orange County Republican Central Committee as an appointed member since 2010, and I recently won my first election to the Committee through 2014.  In my time in Orange County politics, I have come to know and respect many conservatives who are striving to make a difference, not only in this county, but also in this state and in our great nation, and I hope I offer that same passion to my party.  I look forward to spirited discussions with conservatives, liberals, libertarians, or anyone else about all things politics, and I promise to try to maintain civility in my posts and my comments.

A little bit about myself (and a shameless plug for what I do to pay the bills).  I have been married to my beautiful wife for over 12 years now.  We have two boys, 6 and 8, and a 2 year old foster daughter, and we have lived in Mission Viejo for 12 years.  I love all things sports, both watching and playing.  I am an attorney by trade, focusing on employment, business, and real estate/land use litigation.  For nearly my entire career, I have worked at some of the largest firms in the country – until last Monday when I started my own firm with a good friend of mine.  You can check it out at www.larsenwoodard.com if you care (I told you I was making a plug).

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Lincoln Club Makes Endorsements

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 14, 2012

This came across the wire from the Lincoln Club of Orange County:

Local Elections / Endorsements Ad Hoc Committee’s

SUMMARY OF CANDIDATE ENDORSEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS for Nov. 2012

Read the rest of this entry »

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2012 General Election Predictions: 37th Senate District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 13, 2012

When the argument was made that the Senate seats were going to become more moderate in California I figured Orange County likely wouldn’t be affected. It appears that I was right and the 37th Senate District is a great example of that:

Republican voter registration is 16% higher than that of the Democrats. Much like some of the other districts in Orange County this season the DTS voter registration is just 6% behind the registration of Democrats.

Walters was in a head to head race with Steve Young in the primary election, so we got a preview of this race in what could be best considered a glorified poll:

State Senator; District 37

  • Mimi Walters, Republican ………. 88,321 votes 63.6%
  • Steve Young, Democratic ………. 50,562 votes 36.4%

These results show me that Steve Young is not going to be able to be competitive in November. It doesn’t help that he is a perennial candidate for office. Having lost twice previously to Congressman John Campbell in 2008 and 2006.

The fundraising numbers are also indicative of what to expect in November. Walter currently has just under $265,000 in her campaign account after the primary election. Young on the other hand has just over $15,000.

After a couple of my earlier posts handicapping races I got some e-mails arguing that the campaign being run can make a difference. My take on this specific race is that the OC GOP is far superior to the DPOC in terms of getting organized and turning out voters. Young simply does not have the money raised to do it on his own, which is what he would have to do.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Mimi Walters

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2012 General Election Predictions: 29th Senate District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 13, 2012

(Sorry Greg but you are not going to like my prediction here. Feel free to chime in with your own take if you like.)

The 29th Senate District is the seat currently held by Bob Huff who is just finishing up his first term in the Senate:

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

The registration advantage for Republicans over Democrats is just 5% but 22% of voters are DTS and in this district those DTS voters lean-to the right. The party line vote held pretty steady for Huff in the primary:

State Senator; District 29

  • Robert “Bob” Huff, Republican ………. 68,708 votes 64.3%
  • Greg Diamond, Democratic ………. 38,169 votes 35.7%

Diamond finished 1.5% above Democratic registration in the district. Understandably turnout for Democrats will be slightly increased in the general election but it just won’t be enough to get Huff under 60%. I am actually a bit disappointed though because I would like to see Huff challenged a bit stronger not because I want to see him lose but because he has been on the wrong side of issues like redevelopment agencies among other things.

It won’t be a challenge to get his message out their either because Huff currently has just over $400,000 cash on hand for this race. Diamond on the other hand has not raised enough to trigger electronic filing on the Secretary of State website.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Bob Huff

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Galloway Was For “Tax Giveaways” Before She Was Against Them

Posted by HBK on September 13, 2012

As others here have noted, Anaheim politics nowadays makes for strange bedfellows and alliances.

Anaheim Councilwoman Lorri Galloway has been the toughest critic of the city’s deal with the GardenWalk project, under which Anaheim rebates 80% of the hotel project’s transient occupancy tax revenue back to the two hotels for 15 years.  This is larger than the 50-50 TOT splits the city has done in the past with resort district hotels.

Galloway has denounced the GardenWalk deal as a “tax giveaway” and declares this is not “a good time to give $158 million of taxpayer money away to one developer.”

A few years ago, she thought it was a good idea to give tax money to a developer, far in excess of normal standards. This excerpt from a October 2008 post on a now-dormant blog called “No On Galloway” explains how when it came to an Anaheim affordable housing project called the Elm Street Commons, a different view of developer subsidies prevailed:

“It seems the funding on this project got a little creative. On November 28, 2006, SADI, the developer for Elm Street Commons, came to City Council to have their standard DDA approved through the Housing Authority. Standard practice in Anaheim is to give the developer money, to be paid back over time, 85% to the City, and the developer keep 15% as profit. The 85% is then recycled into more housing projects, which keeps Anaheim building apartments for the working poor. Whether you agree with building subsidized housing or not, it is an efficient system. In the development of the Elm Street Commons, the City offered many millions of dollars in direct funding, plus incentives added later such as a sewer project the developer decided the City should do. Rather than approve the otherwise ordinary deal, now-convicted-felon Richard Chavez pulled the development from the Consent Calendar, allowing discussion. In the end, the City Council, led by Chavez and backed by Lorri Galloway, changed the condition of the agreement, bumping the developer’s profit from the standard 15% to a whopping and unprecedented 50% profit for a private corporation!!”

Increasing the traditional 50-50 TOT split to 80-20 for one developer is a “tax giveaway.” But increasing the city-funded profit margin from 15% to 50% for another developer is legitimate?

The post continues:

“Why would Lorri Galloway take money from the very people she claims to champion? Perhaps the answer is in her Council statement, as she looked at the developer and admonished him, “I hope you acknowledge how much Council has been supportive of you.”

“Well the developers at Elm Street Commons sure did remember to acknowledge that 35% jump in their profits, funded by robbing Anaheim’s working poor. Again funneling money through PAC filings with Treasurer Kinde Durkee, who is frequently under investigation by the FPPC, a donation of $15,000 was made by Elm Street, which funded the Clear Channel billboards Lorri has all over the City. They also underwrote a large mailing, and the graphic arts for the mail piece.”

Food for thought.

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2012 General Election Predictions: 49th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 12, 2012

This is the last in my handicapping series for Congressional races as it is the last race in Orange County having the City of Dana Point within its boundaries along with Las Flores and Ladera Ranch:

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for the map.

Much like the 48th Congressional District this seat has a 15% Republican registration advantage and DTS voters only trail Democrats by 6% in registration. On top of this DTS voters are more conservative in this area.

Darrell Issa who currently holds the seat has great name I in San Diego which holds the majority of the district. The results in the primary are not a huge surprise:

United States Representative; District 49

  • Darrell Issa, Republican ………. 71,329 votes 61.1%
  • Jerry Tetalman, Democratic ………. 35,816 votes 30.7%
  • Dick Eiden ………. 7,988 votes 6.8%
  • Albin Novinec ………. 1,626 votes 1.4%

Tetalman ran 1 point ahead of Democratic registration but that is an indicator that Issa will gain a similar amount of the votes that went to the 2 DTS candidates. Even if Tetalman were to get all of the votes from Dick Eiden and Albin Novinec it would not matter.

To make matters worse for Tetalman, Issa currently has over $1,000,000 in the bank after the primary. Tetalman on the other hand has just over $6,000.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Darrell Issa

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2012 General Election Predictions: 48th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 12, 2012

After looking at a one of the most competitive seats in California yesterday, we know go back to the boring and obvious. In this case though the boring and obvious looks to be a good thing for Republicans.

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

As you can see from the map Republicans not only hold a 17% registration advantage over Democrats, but Democrats are holding just a slim 7% advantage over DTS voters. With DTS voters leaning more conservative in this area it leads to what will likely be one of the slam dunk races in Orange County.

Congressman Dana Rohrabacher has held this seat for a while and has strong name ID especially in Huntington Beach & Costa Mesa which are the 2 largest cities in the district. Ron Varasteh just simply does not have the name ID.

Results in the primary also show that Rohrabacher is in a strong position to win with over 65& of the vote:

United States Representative; District 48

  • Dana Rohrabacher, Republican ………. 73,302 votes 66.3%
  • Ron Varasteh, Democratic ………. 31,912 votes 28.9%
  • Alan Schlar ………. 5,355 votes 4.8%

Varasteh ran directly in line with voter registration for his party and with Schlar running as a DTS candidate his votes will likely split between Rohrabacher and Varasteh.

Fundraising also is an advantage for Rohrabacher as when I tried to pull up the financial numbers for Ron Varasteh on the FEC website it informed me that he had no information to report. Rohrabacher reports over $280,000 cash on hand after the primary.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Dana Rohrabacher

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