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2012 General Election Predictions: 39th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 10, 2012

The 39th Congressional District is another one that is not going to be a very close race. The map on this one will show you a seat split between Orange County, Los Angeles County, and San Bernardino County.  Here is the map:

Thank you to the good people at Meridian-Pacific for the use of the map.

The results from the primary are also a pretty one-sided victory as you can see from the results it was a big victory for Ed Royce:

United States Representative; District 39

  • Ed Royce, Republican ………. 62,874 votes 66.3%
  • Jay Chen, Democratic ………. 28,457 votes 30.0%
  • D’Marie Mulattieri ………. 3,561 votes 3.8%

Any time that you can achieve a 2/3 vote in a primary election (open primary) it is a virtual guarantee that you will win in November.

Republican registration is just 41% with the Democrats not that far behind at 32.7%. However the 22.3% of DTS voters are leaning pretty far to the right. This is why Royce ran over 20 points higher than Republican registration. Jay Chen  was a huge disappointment finishing 2% below Democratic registration.

Royce also has the advantage of having a $2,000,000 campaign account to help him if he feels that he needs it. I would be shocked if he dips into this to a great extent. Jay Chen is not doing poorly for a candidate in this race with a $350,000 cash on hand total after June 30th, but it will take a lot more than that to defeat Royce.

Another factor is the map of the district geographically where Royce has extremely high name ID in Orange County which makes up the majority of the district. In fact Fullerton which is the home town of Royce is the largest city in the 39th Congressional District.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Ed Royce

Posted in 39th Congressional District | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

2012 General Election Predictions: 38th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 10, 2012

We move on from the U.S. Senate to the series of Congressional races. These are all pretty straight forward picks with the exception of one race which we will discuss later this week. We start off with the 38th Congressional District which has a sliver of Orange County in it (La Palma).

Thank you to the good people at Meridian-Pacific for the use of the map.

In this race we see Linda Sanchez (D) take on Benjamin Campos (D) and the results from the primary election tell the story:

United States Representative; District 38

  • Linda T. Sánchez, Democratic ………. 33,223 votes 56.0%
  • Benjamin Campos, Republican ………. 13,363 votes 22.5%
  • Jorge Robles, Republican ………. 12,713 votes 21.4%

You have to understand that Republican turnout is generally higher in a primary election than it is in a general election. Democrats have a huge registration advantage of 49.8% to Republicans 27.4%.  The 18.8% of DTS voters in this district lean a bit more on the liberal side as well.

Registration aside, Linda Sanchez is going to have a big financial advantage in terms of fundraising capabilities and will have a huge name ID advantage based on the amount of time that she has served in Congress. The argument is always made that Congress is extremely unpopular and incumbents will easily be tossed out but people forget that voters still do generally like their own Congressional Representative.

Getting into specifics Sanchez has over $200,000 cash on hand after the primary election and Benjamin Campos has just over $5,000 cash on hand. This comparison just will not get the job done for a challenger facing a huge registration disadvantage.

The main factors at play on this campaign as stated above are fundraising, name id, and campaign experience. Linda Sanchez has the advantage in every one of these categories. However, I do believe that Benjamin Campos will beat Republican registration because in this election CPA is a strong designation to have due to the focus being budgetary issues.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Linda Sanchez

Posted in 38th Congressional District | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

New Prop 32 Web Video: “Tragic” As CTA Spends Millions In Opposition

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 10, 2012

This just came across the wire from the Yes on Prop 32 campaign. (Full Disclosure: Custom Campaigns is doing some consulting work on this race):

New Prop 32 Web Video: “Tragic” As CTA Spends Millions In Opposition

Ad Shows Voters How Teachers Union Contributions Led To Failure Of SB 1530

(SACRAMENTO, CA)—Today, the Yes on Prop 32 campaign released a new web video, entitled “Tragic”, that explains how Prop 32 would reduce special interest control over politicians, exemplified by the California’s teachers union blocking SB 1530, a bill that would have made it easier to fire teachers accused of child molestation, violence and drug abuse.  Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in California | 5 Comments »

2012 General Election Predictions: U.S. Senate

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 10, 2012

It is once again time for my prediction series on the 2012 general election races that will appear on the ballot. I am not going to make predictions on all races, but I would say you can expect predictions on over 75% of them.

We are going to kick things off with the United States Senate race between Dianne Feinstein and Elizabeth Emken. In the primary election we had 24 candidates vying for this seat:

United States Senator

  • Dianne Feinstein, Democratic ………. 2,392,822 votes 49.3%
  • Elizabeth Emken, Republican ………. 613,613 votes 12.6%
  • Dan Hughes, Republican ………. 323,840 votes 6.7%
  • Rick Williams, Republican ………. 157,946 votes 3.3%
  • Orly Taitz, Republican ………. 154,781 votes 3.2%
  • Dennis Jackson, Republican ………. 137,120 votes 2.8%
  • Greg Conlon, Republican ………. 135,421 votes 2.8%
  • Al Ramirez, Republican ………. 109,399 votes 2.3%
  • Gail K. Lightfoot, Libertarian ………. 101,648 votes 2.1%
  • Diane Stewart, Democratic ………. 97,782 votes 2.0%
  • Mike Strimling, Democratic ………. 97,024 votes 2.0%
  • David Alex Levitt, Democratic ………. 76,482 votes 1.6%
  • Oscar Alejandro Braun, Republican ………. 75,842 votes 1.6%
  • Marsha Feinland, Peace and Freedom ………. 57,720 votes 1.2%
  • Robert Lauten, Republican ………. 56,524 votes 1.2%
  • Colleen Shea Fernald, Democratic ………. 51,623 votes 1.1%
  • Donald Krampe, Republican ………. 39,035 votes 0.8%
  • Don J. Grundmann, American Independent ………. 33,037 votes 0.7%
  • Dirk Allen Konopik, Republican ………. 29,997 votes 0.6%
  • John Boruff, Republican ………. 29,357 votes 0.6%
  • Nak Shah, Democratic ………. 27,203 votes 0.6%
  • Rogelio T. Gloria, Republican ………. 22,529 votes 0.5%
  • Nachum Shifren, Republican ………. 21,762 votes 0.4%
  • Kabiruddin Karim Ali, Peace and Freedom ………. 12,269 votes 0.3%
  • Linda R. Price, Republican (Write-in)

This data comes directly from the League of Women Voters “Smart Voter” website. Unfortunately for Republicans these numbers say it all. Feinstein almost managed to get 50% of the vote with 23 opponents running against her.

Unfortunately, this race is not Barbara Boxer vs. Carly Fiorina which was extremely competitive. Feinstein is the more moderate Democrat between the 2 Senators. Feinstein also hails from the bay area which is one of the largest 2 voting populations in California (the other being Los Angeles.

Many might argue that Feinstein is vulnerable because she was one of the victims of the Kindee Durkee scandal. However, Durkee may have taken all of her campaign money but Feinstein was listed as the 9th richest member of Congress in 2011. Also Diane Feinstein wrote her campaign a check for $5,000,000 after Durkee took her $4,500,000 during the alleged embezzlement scandal.

This race is going to take millions of dollars to do and with just over  $26,000 left after the primary election it just doesn’t seem like it is going to happen. On the other hand Feinstein had over $3,000,000 as of June 30th in her account

On a personal note I think Elizabeth Emken is a great person and I am hoping that all the stars will align for an upset on election night.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Dianne Feinstein

Posted in California, National | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Dick Ackerman Working With Unions In Fullerton

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 7, 2012

UPDATED 6:35 PM- Friend For Fullertons Future actually did have the robocall in YouTube format. You can read their article on this issue here.

Although I don’t always agree with Tony Bushalas methods, he has backed Bruce Whitaker and Travis Kiger who have proven to be solid votes on the Fullerton City Council. I was disappointed by the vote that Greg Sebourn made on not looking into putting the police contract out to bid and will withhold judgement on him until after a couple of years in office.

I am way behind on this story as the vote on the police contract took place August 7th but with all this talk of unions and who is working with them lately it is disappointing to see that former Senate Republican leader Dick Ackerman chose to work with the Fullerton Police Officers Association and do a robocall on their behalf encouraging residents to come out in support of Fullerton PD.

Friends For Fullertons Future appears to cover this story at length, but I did not see the actual robocall get posted on the website.

On an interesting side not when I was a student at Cal State Fullerton a few years back we had to do a ride-a-long with a local police agency. I not only ended up doing mine with Fullerton PD but actually ended up doing my ride-a-long with Albert Rincon.

The robocall sent out by Ackerman and the Fullerton Police Officers Association was encouraging voters to stand up against Tony Bushala. Apparently it worked because Councilmembers Chaffee, Quirk-Silva, and Sebourn voted together against Whitaker and Kiger on the issue.

A reader earlier today sent me the robocall and I figured why not post the robocall even though it is a bit dated.

Click here to listen to the robocall or read the transcript below:

Hello, this is Dick Ackerman former Fullerton Mayor and Councilmember and State Senate Minority Leader with a very important message.

The Fullerton City Council is being told to outsource our own police department and bring in an outside agency. We need you to attend the City Council meeting this Tuesday the 7th or e-mail or call the City Council to speak out against this terrible idea.

In 1937 George Amerige wrote there is a secret to building a town. It takes a stiff backbone, a spirit of progressiveness, a determination to win out, and a disposition that can stand against all sorts of criticism.

George would know because 50 years earlier he and his brother Edward set the foundations for Fullerton. From the days that oil and oranges dominated the Fullerton landscape until today we’ve been blessed by a pioneering spirit that has moved Fullerton forward together.

Sadly, today one man and his cohorts have threatened to turn back the clock in Fullerton. Millionaire developer Tony Bushala is attempting to bully the City Council and potentially bringing in a new police force.

First he bankrolled the recall election and know he wants a new police force for who knows why. Just last year the Fullerton police, the city employees, and firefighters agreed to a cost savings, pension reform, and cuts of over $1,000,000. That’s over $1,000,000 of savings for Fullerton taxpayers.

Don’t let one person turn back the clock. It’s time to stand up and speak out against Tony Bushala and move our city forward. Fullerton is not for sale and we would like to keep our police department our own.

Local control is the key. Call or e-mail our City Council or attend the August 7th meeting. If you would, please visit our website www.keepfullertonpd.com to sign up and also click the link to like us on Facebook.

Let’s keep our police local and reject Tony Bushalas terrible idea to outsource our police department. And let’s remember what George Amerige revealed many years ago the secret to a successful city is in the strength of its people.

Now is the time to show that strength and stand up for Fullerton. Thank you for listening and thank you for your help.

THIS MESSAGE WAS PAID FOR BY THE FULLERTON POLICE OFFICERS ASSOCIATION.

Posted in Fullerton | Tagged: , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

More OCGOP Endorsement Fun Tonight

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 5, 2012

Just wanted to send out a quick note to our readers that the endorsements meeting for the OC GOP was not limited to last night. The fun will continue tonight with another round of endorsements. We as always will be live blogging the event and if you want the most recent updates check in with us starting at 6:00 PM and be ready to keep hitting refresh.

For all of you Fantasy Football fans out there Chris Nguyen has been icing his thumbs and is listed as probable for tonight’s contest.

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Leave a Comment »

Anaheim Court Case Aftermath

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 5, 2012

OC Insider beat me to the punch but I wanted to follow-up a bit on the Anaheim court case and the aftermath from the judge’s ruling. The case itself had 2 major points that were being argued:

1) Steve Chavez Lodge was using the name Chavez to simply try to increase votes he would receive from the latino community. This part of the lawsuit would force him to change his name on the ballot to Steve Lodge.  (12:37 AM Nguyen correction: the legal point being argued is whether or not Lodge is entitled to his birth name of Chavez, based on whether or not he is known by that name.)

2) Steve Chavez Lodge cannot used the designation of retired policeman because he is currently employed as a businessman/consultant.

Chris Nguyen and I had discussed the case and we actually predicted the outcome being what it was. Lode was allowed to keep the name Chavez. However, he also was forced to change his designation to businessman because in order to be retired under election law you must be at least 55 years old.  (12:37 AM Nguyen correction: Lodge was actually forced to change it to businessman because he had “another more recent, intervening principal profession, vocation or occupation” as he currently works at Hill International as Director of Public Affairs.)

With all of the anger and negative press with the police my thought is that Chavez-Lodge might have actually benefitted from being placed on the ballot as a businessman instead.

I sent over 3 questions over to Cynthia Ward after the final decision in order to get her take on what could be considered a substantial victory for Chavez-Lodge:

1) You won the challenge of his designation, however, do you think it benefits him to run as businessman and not policeman considering all the tension with police in Anaheim?

I do not think it is the tension of being associated with Police work in general that would be a negative for Lodge, at least not associated with APD. After all, he did nail the public safety union endorsements, both Fire and Police, and they are likely to do plenty of mail reminding voters of his ex-cop background even if the ballot does not allow for the wording.

I think the law enforcement image Lodge needs to live down at this point is his own record as a Santa Ana cop. Plenty of blogs scooped me while I was embargoed, and have revealed public records showing Lodge involved in court cases not as an expert witness, but as a defendant, including an excessive force case in which the victim was awarded half a million dollars in punitive damages for injuries suffered while apparently being arrested for the heinous crime of jaywalking. That is going to be harder to live down than an association with cops in general.

I think a lot of Anaheim voters understand that while there are bad apples in every batch, in large part the APD is staffed with professional, decent people, trying hard to protect and serve, under a Chief that is greatly respected throughout the city. It may shock you to know that Chief John Welter is greatly respected in the neighborhoods like Ponderosa, where unrest has been kept to a minimum because the residents trust Welter, and when trouble broke with a Police shooting of a gang member, the residents fell back on that trust rather than follow the trouble-making team of Joanne Sosa and Lorri Galloway, who together with Yesenia Rojas appear to be largely responsible for riling up the Anna Drive residents and creating much of the unrest.

That is a long way of saying that I do not think Anaheim voters have a problem with APD or Police in general, but they are very suspect of anyone tagged with a “bad cop” label, and Lodge is going to have to live down the recent allegations on the blogs, which are certain to hit the papers, especially with the media attention he seems to have ginned up.

2) What is your take on the judge’s ruling to allow him to keep the name Chavez and adding the name Albert?

I have nothing but respect for Judge Charles Margines, I did some research on his work as soon as I knew we drew his courtroom, and he seems not only fair, but incredibly intelligent, and quite a bit witty. He not only refused to allow the last minute “evidence” that Lodge’s lawyer tried to present, he seemed to almost mock Baric for trying. Margines pointed out the absurdity of the argument that they “just received” these documents, asking why Mr. Lodge did not have his own personal papers ready prior to court. It was a really informative session to watch, I would actually go back to his courtroom just to watch him work, he takes no bull from either side.

The ruling ultimately came down to a recollection from the Judge’s own memory banks, which none of us could have foreseen. Lodge’s case had bounced from “it is the name on my birth certificate” to “I never legally changed my name to Lodge” (an oddity since he presumably has a Social Security number, Driver’s License, etc. in that name, but I digress) and finally landed on “I have testified in court as Steven Albert Chavez Lodge.”  Baric even argued that Lodge had testified before Judge Margines himself, although I did not see evidence that he provided a case number or transcript to verify that. But that last argument seemed to strike a chord.  It was Judge Margines himself that recalled Lodge testifying in his own courtroom years ago, and he believed it was as Chavez-Lodge.

Now, to be fair, recalling that a Police officer used a name once years ago while testifying in a Santa Ana courtroom as a Santa Ana cop may not establish that he is widely known by that name in the community in which he is now running for office. And again, Lodge and his lawyer did not produce the evidence of that, beyond a verbal statement. But the lightbulb went off over the head of a Judge I greatly admire, and I can respect that decision without argument.

On the way home my husband and I were discussing the potential repercussions radiating outward beyond the campaign, had the Judge decided against Lodge. If Lodge had testified in court against a criminal, even once, as Chavez-Lodge, and had an officer of the court then ruled that it did not appear to be his legal name, the ramifications for opening case loads on technicalities may have been more than any of us bargained for. Given a choice between letting Lodge use the name he has requested, or potentially opening a Pandora’s Box of legal challenges in criminal court, he can have the name. Gladly.

It appears the “Albert” was added because the question of what Lodge calls himself was so completely up in the air, and the Judge may have wanted to cover all his bases. When asked what his client’s legal name was, attorney Steve Baric insisted it was Steven Albert Chavez, (no Lodge.) That got the Judge’s attention. Since so many options were presented about what Lodge calls himself depending on day and conditions, I think the judge threw it all onto the ballot just to be sure we got it all. Kind of like throwing pasta at the wall.

3) Will you still attempt to get Lodge to pay your attorney’s fees?

My attorney had included that in the original Petition as an option, should we prevail, and I have not discussed it with him yet. But unless I am mistaken, I think we split the decision equally. I certainly have no interest in being punitive, no matter what Lodge has said about me.

Honestly, I just want the nastiness to stop. This was never meant to be personal, I think people get very emotional when they hear the word “lawsuit” they think damages and awards of vast sums of money, and that is not what this was. The suit is the only mechanism for stopping the process of the City Clerk and Registrar of Voters from moving forward with the wording they are given by the candidates. As you know, once the filing period is closed even the candidates themselves cannot change the wording they have submitted, so a Petition to the Registrar and Clerk is the only way to challenge the system. These challenges are common; they happen all over the country in every election cycle, and they are usually handled without the toxic sludge that has been polluting the internet since this hit.

In fact, the case just ahead of ours was yet another Petition, in which a candidate in RSM was being challenged with the claim that they had used their ballot statement to disparage other candidates. If ever a case could become negative it would be that one, but it did not get the national attention we got because the candidate did not escalate the arguments into the public eye like Lodge seems to have done. I honestly wondered where the negativity came from, and then noticed that Lodge was accompanied to court by Dave Ellis. It explained a lot. So while I think we both came out equally, I suspect this is far from over, no matter where the attorney’s fees end up.

Posted in Anaheim | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Monday 9-4-2012 On The Docket: New Blogger & Endorsements

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 4, 2012

It has been a crazy time of year for us at Custom Campaigns so we have not been able to blog as much as we would like. We do have a couple of quick announcements though.

1) We are very excited to announce that we have added former Red County blogger Allen Wilson to OC Political as one of our authors. He wrote some great stuff over at Red County and we are really excited to have him joining the team.

2) Chris Nguyen and I will be live blogging toe OC GOP Endorsements committee meeting tonight and as always it should be very exciting. Check back in with us at 6:00 to follow this event live.

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

New Legislation Will Increase Guidance at BOE: Steel Newsletter for August, 2012

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 3, 2012

This came over the wire from Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel’s office on Friday…

The Michelle Steel Newsletter Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Board of Equalization | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Quirk-Silva Campaigns In Santa Ana Which Doesn’t Even Border AD-65

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on August 30, 2012

AD-65 candidate Sharon Quirk-Silva is campaigning in Santa Ana today: she’s holding a meet and greet at the Martinez Book Store at 216 N. Broadway at 5 PM.

Why?

AD-65 is Anaheim, Buena Park, Cypress, Fullerton, La Palma and Stanton.  None of those cities even border Santa Ana.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

Maybe she’s in Santa Ana because she wants to be Loretta Sanchez’s successor.  That would make sense since Santa Ana is completely in CD-46.  She’s sharing campaign offices with Sanchez, too.  Maybe that’s what this AD-65 campaign really is about.  She’s trying to raise her profile to run for CD-46.  CD-46 doesn’t include Buena Park, Cypress, Fullerton, La Palma, or Stanton, by the way.

Maybe Quirk-Silva’s campaigning in Santa Ana because they’ll be friendlier to her pro-tax message there than they will be in AD-65.  She must be supporting Governor Jerry Brown’s Prop 30 sales tax and income tax hike.  Prop 30 will probably fail miserably in AD-65 but pass in Santa Ana.  As Steve Sarkis pointed out in the OC Register, Quirk-Silva’s entire “ending partisan gridlock” argument is just code for increasing taxes.  See Steve’s letter (third one down): http://letters.ocregister.com/2012/05/26/primary-distinctions-between-candidates/

Maybe Quirk-Silva’s campaigning in Santa Ana because she has as many Santa Ana City Councilmembers endorsing her as she does in all of AD-65.  She has four Santa Ana Councilmembers endorsing her (David Benavides, Michele Martinez, Sal Tinajero, and Vince Sarmiento).  Of the four AD-65 Councilmembers endorsing Quirk-Silva (Anaheim’s Lorri Galloway, Fullerton’s Doug Chaffee, and tiny La Palma’s Ralph Rodriguez and Steve Shanahan), Galloway can’t even vote for her since she lives in AD-68 (Anaheim is split into AD-65, AD-68, and AD-69).  By the way, Norby has 21 endorsements from AD-65 City Councilmembers.

Maybe Quirk-Silva’s campaigning in Santa Ana because she’ll hope it’ll get the Assembly Dem leadership’s attention by pretending to run in a Dem city like Santa Ana.  I wrote a couple weeks ago in my post “Leading Assembly Democrat Headlines Norby Fundraiser” that “She isn’t endorsed by the Speaker or the Assembly Majority Leader either.  It looks like the Democrat leadership is abandoning Quirk-Silva.”

It looks like the Democrat leadership is abandoning Quirk-Silva.  On Monday, the Assembly’s top Democrat, Speaker John Perez, announced the Dems’ November target list: http://blogs.sacbee.com/capitolalertlatest/2012/08/assembly-democrats-target-four-races-for-november-election.html

Quirk-Silva wasn’t on it.

Has Quirk-Silva given up on even campaigning in AD-65?

Posted in 46th Congressional District, 65th Assembly District, Santa Ana | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »