Closer Look at Measure J Results, as LA County Issues Notice of Recount
Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 11, 2014
Fullerton activist Tony Bushala filed an official request for a recount on Measure J, the $574 million bond in the two-county North Orange County Community College District (NOCCCD). As a college bond, Measure J requires 55% voter approval to pass.
The LA County Registrar of Voters posted their official notice of recount and an LA County recount costs a shocking $5,074.71-$21,158.49 per day. Orange County has a much more reasonable $600 per day.
NOCCCD has 16 precincts in LA County, where 3,947 votes were cast. NOCCCD has 522 precincts in Orange County, where 150,171 votes were cast.
Much chatter has been on the recount starting in LA County, as LA County Registrar Dean Logan is believed to be more likely to have erroneous counts than the very competent Orange County Registrar Neal Kelley. Indeed, the OC Registrar recount in the Garden Grove Mayor’s race was cancelled after one day because not a single ballot changed. (Dean Logan’s role in the 2004 Washington Governor’s race was particularly high profile, as the Republican Dino Rossi led for Governor of Washington in multiple recounts until Logan’s King County found a bunch of ballots for Democrat Christine Gregoire. Logan left King County to become LA County’s Chief Deputy Registrar in 2006 and became LA County’s Registrar in 2008.)
La Habra Heights (LA County) and Yorba Linda (Orange County) are the strongholds of the “No” vote, where most voters opposed Measure J. Orange County’s Stanton, Anaheim, Buena Park, Garden Grove, Los Alamitos, and La Habra are the strongholds of the “Yes” vote, as are the unincorporated areas of both counties; voters in these areas voted in favor of Measure J by margins exceeding 55%. OC’s Fullerton, Placentia, La Palma, Cypress, Brea, and unincorporated Rossmoor, along with LA County’s Whittier are the closer areas, where Measure J got over 50% but less than the 55% supermajority.
| City/Community | Yes | No | ||
| La Mirada | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| Stanton | 2265 | 65.94% | 1170 | 34.06% |
| Orange | 13 | 65.00% | 7 | 35.00% |
| Anaheim | 19645 | 60.51% | 12821 | 39.49% |
| Buena Park | 6942 | 59.06% | 4813 | 40.94% |
| Garden Grove | 2768 | 58.62% | 1954 | 41.38% |
| Los Alamitos | 1383 | 57.01% | 1043 | 42.99% |
| Seal Beach | 1287 | 55.40% | 1036 | 44.60% |
| Unincorporated LA County | 831 | 55.40% | 669 | 44.60% |
| La Habra | 2449 | 55.23% | 1985 | 44.77% |
| Unincorporated OC (Excluding Rossmoor) | 3698 | 55.11% | 3012 | 44.89% |
| Fullerton | 14308 | 54.74% | 11829 | 45.26% |
| Placentia | 5562 | 54.32% | 4678 | 45.68% |
| La Palma | 1819 | 53.63% | 1573 | 46.37% |
| Cypress | 5675 | 52.68% | 5098 | 47.32% |
| Brea | 4997 | 52.59% | 4504 | 47.41% |
| Whittier | 620 | 52.28% | 566 | 47.72% |
| Rossmoor | 1804 | 50.73% | 1752 | 49.27% |
| La Habra Heights | 577 | 45.79% | 683 | 54.21% |
| Yorba Linda | 8136 | 44.51% | 10145 | 55.49% |
| TOTAL | 84780 | 55.01% | 69338 | 44.99% |
Math should be a nonpartisan issue, so in the spirit of this, I’ll concur with Greg Diamond’s math that overturning Measure J requires tossing 34 “Yes” votes at Orange Juice Blog.
However, I understand why the OC Register states Measure J passed by 15 votes. With 154,118 votes cast, 55% is 84,765 votes. Measure J got 15 votes more: 84,780. That does not mean that 15 votes is how to defeat Measure J.
Somehow moving 16 votes from the Yes column to the No column would defeat Measure J. However, that would be a tall order, as that would literally require the vote counting machines to have counted “No” votes as “Yes” votes 16 times. That seems rather unlikely, with the increased accuracy of vote counting machines in recent years.
The more likely way to defeat Measure J in the recount would be for 34 “Yes” votes to be tossed, as Diamond’s math explains. His math and mine agree, but here’s a table that presents it in a different method that may help those confused by Diamond’s description:
| “Yes” Votes Tossed | Yes | No | Total | 55% | ||
| 0 | 84780 | 55.0097976874862% | 69338 | 44.9902023125138% | 154118 | 84765 |
| 1 | 84779 | 55.0095057651005% | 69338 | 44.9904942348995% | 154117 | 84765 |
| 2 | 84778 | 55.0092138389265% | 69338 | 44.9907861610735% | 154116 | 84764 |
| 3 | 84777 | 55.0089219089641% | 69338 | 44.9910780910359% | 154115 | 84764 |
| 4 | 84776 | 55.0086299752132% | 69338 | 44.9913700247868% | 154114 | 84763 |
| 5 | 84775 | 55.0083380376737% | 69338 | 44.9916619623263% | 154113 | 84763 |
| 6 | 84774 | 55.0080460963455% | 69338 | 44.9919539036545% | 154112 | 84762 |
| 7 | 84773 | 55.0077541512287% | 69338 | 44.9922458487713% | 154111 | 84762 |
| 8 | 84772 | 55.0074622023230% | 69338 | 44.9925377976770% | 154110 | 84761 |
| 9 | 84771 | 55.0071702496285% | 69338 | 44.9928297503715% | 154109 | 84760 |
| 10 | 84770 | 55.0068782931451% | 69338 | 44.9931217068549% | 154108 | 84760 |
| 11 | 84769 | 55.0065863328726% | 69338 | 44.9934136671274% | 154107 | 84759 |
| 12 | 84768 | 55.0062943688111% | 69338 | 44.9937056311889% | 154106 | 84759 |
| 13 | 84767 | 55.0060024009604% | 69338 | 44.9939975990396% | 154105 | 84758 |
| 14 | 84766 | 55.0057104293205% | 69338 | 44.9942895706795% | 154104 | 84758 |
| 15 | 84765 | 55.0054184538912% | 69338 | 44.9945815461088% | 154103 | 84757 |
| 16 | 84764 | 55.0051264746726% | 69338 | 44.9948735253274% | 154102 | 84757 |
| 17 | 84763 | 55.0048344916646% | 69338 | 44.9951655083354% | 154101 | 84756 |
| 18 | 84762 | 55.0045425048670% | 69338 | 44.9954574951330% | 154100 | 84755 |
| 19 | 84761 | 55.0042505142798% | 69338 | 44.9957494857202% | 154099 | 84755 |
| 20 | 84760 | 55.0039585199029% | 69338 | 44.9960414800971% | 154098 | 84754 |
| 21 | 84759 | 55.0036665217363% | 69338 | 44.9963334782637% | 154097 | 84754 |
| 22 | 84758 | 55.0033745197799% | 69338 | 44.9966254802201% | 154096 | 84753 |
| 23 | 84757 | 55.0030825140336% | 69338 | 44.9969174859664% | 154095 | 84753 |
| 24 | 84756 | 55.0027905044973% | 69338 | 44.9972094955027% | 154094 | 84752 |
| 25 | 84755 | 55.0024984911709% | 69338 | 44.9975015088291% | 154093 | 84752 |
| 26 | 84754 | 55.0022064740545% | 69338 | 44.9977935259455% | 154092 | 84751 |
| 27 | 84753 | 55.0019144531478% | 69338 | 44.9980855468522% | 154091 | 84751 |
| 28 | 84752 | 55.0016224284509% | 69338 | 44.9983775715491% | 154090 | 84750 |
| 29 | 84751 | 55.0013303999637% | 69338 | 44.9986696000363% | 154089 | 84749 |
| 30 | 84750 | 55.0010383676860% | 69338 | 44.9989616323140% | 154088 | 84749 |
| 31 | 84749 | 55.0007463316179% | 69338 | 44.9992536683821% | 154087 | 84748 |
| 32 | 84748 | 55.0004542917591% | 69338 | 44.9995457082409% | 154086 | 84748 |
| 33 | 84747 | 55.0001622481098% | 69338 | 44.9998377518902% | 154085 | 84747 |
| 34 | 84746 | 54.9998702006698% | 69338 | 45.0001297993302% | 154084 | 84747 |
OC Political 
Greg Diamond said
“Confused by Diamond’s description”? I understand the individual words in that sentence, Chris, but together they seem to make no sense.
No, seriously — I’m glad to have someone else covering this who also knows how to count. I presume that you won’t mind my linking to the post where I explain why it would require 16 rather than 15 votes to switch, as if that prospect matters: http://www.orangejuiceblog.com/2014/12/measure-j-passed-dont-bet-on-a-recount/
Tim Whitaker told me that Bushala’s team will seek to review all provisionals, rather than, for example, only those in Stanton, West Anaheim, and student-dominated precincts in Fullerton, which is the right thing to do ethically. So that should leave Measure J’s proponents with ample opportunity to object to any inappropriate challenges, IF they have their act together. (I don’t know their plans.) If we get to the point of seeing disqualifying individual voters based on technicalities or other dubious bases, then I expect that we’ll see this end up in court — unless there are so many such ballots that NOCCCD considers that to be futile. (My presumption is that they’d want to spend some money, given the stakes.)
Let’s all enjoy one more civics lesson before 2014 ends!
La Miradan said
Curious as to that one Yes vote from La Mirada seeing as how the only part of the city proper in NOCCCD is a strip mall on the NE corner of Santa Gertrudes and Imperial. The only footprint of that vote is in the SVC under “Ballot Group 257” (pg. 14180) http://www.lavote.net/documents/SVC/11042014_SVC.pdf
It could be a provisional ballot that may well have been erroneously counted given there is not one registered voter in the city proper within the district. http://www.nocccd.edu/documents/NOCCCD_TrusteeAreas_ApprovedScenario.pdf (TA4-McLanahan)
Greg Diamond said
I’ve presumed (without investigating) that some of the unincorporated area south of Whittier may be designated as being from La Mirada. Do you know? That “9990257A” doesn’t seem like a normal precinct number.
I don’t find anything on the LAVOTE site suggesting what “Ballot Group 257” is. Maybe an overseas or military ballot?
What I found surprising looking at that page is that there is a precinct, heretofore unmentioned so far as I can tell in any discussion of the LA County portion of this race, designated as being from Hacienda Heights. (Huh?)
La Miradan said
According to the LA County, that is all officially known as “South Whittier” though it is informally known as East La Mirada.
Having combed through previous years of results this is the first time I have ever seen “Ballot Group.” Such a designation does not appear in any other year’s election results or SVC. I would like to know myself as there were
Yep, if you look again at the map linked above you’ll notice that there’s a dotted line right at the northernmost point of NOCCCD. Above that line is the tiny portion of Hacienda Heights. Honestly, community college district lines, at least NOCCCD’s are weird and probably need some fine tuning to follow city limits and communities of interest.
La Miradan said
*there were 5 voters who cast votes from BG250/252 in my race.
Greg Diamond said
I vote that Chris has to call Dean Logan personally and find out.
La Miradan said
I second my colleague, Mr. Diamond’s, motion.
confused la habran said
is the city of la habra (orange county) no longer in noccd?
Chris Nguyen said
You didn’t hear? LAFCO disincorporated La Habra and made it an unincorporated area of Orange County.
It could be worse: the Redistricting Commission almost lumped La Habra into LA County in 2011: http://www.ocregister.com/articles/county-307538-habra-orange.html
A fun OC Register story from last year: “La Habra in L.A. or O.C.? Some don’t know” http://www.ocregister.com/articles/habra-520679-county-orange.html
In all seriousness, I inadvertently lumped La Habra into unincorporated Orange County. I have corrected the post restoring La Habra’s status as a separate incorporated city.
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